TRADE ANALYSIS: Preds, Sens solidify contender status, Avs profit later

Breakups are hard.

Joe Sakic was one of Matt Duchene‘s all-time heroes growing up– right up there with golden age era Colorado Avalanche counterpart, Peter Forsberg. Now, Sakic has traded away the player that was meant to carry the torch as Colorado transitioned from their franchise’s greatest player of all-time to the 3rd overall pick in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft.

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Last year’s Colorado Avalanche sealed the deal for Duchene. He had waited long enough for a franchise that has only made the playoffs twice in his career to rebuild.

His days were numbered and had been rumored to be on his way out since things really began to go south last season, but Avalanche general manager, Joe Sakic, held on until the very last minute– demanding quite the return in hopes of making up for the lost time in talent acquisition and development after the Ryan O’Reilly trade with the Buffalo Sabres at the 2015 NHL Entry Draft.

Nikita Zadorov hasn’t lived up to the hype– though he is on their roster, J.T. Compher isn’t as prolific as O’Reilly, Mikhail Grigorenko‘s now playing in the KHL and the 31st overall pick was flipped by the Avs at the draft to the San Jose Sharks. The O’Reilly deal had a clear winner (Buffalo) and setback Colorado further than they expected to have been in the post-O’Reilly Era, already depleted at center a season after losing Paul Stastny to the St. Louis Blues in free agency.

For Duchene, the drama’s over.

No more questions about who’s going to step up, when thing’s are going to turn around or how long things will last.

The deal is done.

Sunday night, while playing at Barclays Center against the New York Islanders, Matt Duchene was pulled off the ice during a stoppage to assist now former teammate, Blake Comeau, out of the rink with an injury. Duchene had been traded– mid-game. The first in recent memory since Janurary 12, 2012, when the Montreal Canadiens sent Mike Cammalleri to the Calgary Flames during a matchup with the Boston Bruins at TD Garden.

Unknown-6Duchene will be closer to home, bringing his 4-6-10 totals in 14 games with Colorado so far this season to Canada’s capital. His Senators debut will be against his former team later this week as Ottawa takes on Colorado in the 2017 SAP NHL Global Series this Friday and Saturday in Stockholm, Sweden.

The 26-year-old center had 428 points (178 goals, 250 assists) in 586 games played with the Avalanche since being drafted in 2009 and is moving on to greener pastures with the Ottawa Senators after a career worst minus-34 in 77 games last season.

Ottawa is going through a little breakup of their own as part of this three-team trade, sending the other largest part of the deal, Kyle Turris, to the Nashville Predators, while dealing Andrew Hammond, Shane Bowers, a 2018 1st round pick (with top-ten protection) and a 2019 3rd round pick to Colorado.

In perhaps the biggest underrated pickup from this trade, Turris brings his 3-6-9 totals in 11 games with the Sens this season to the Nashville Predators. The 28-year-old center is coming off of a career best 27 goals last season and finished the 2016-17 campaign with 27-28-55 totals in 78 games played.

A strong, two-way player, Turris’s current contract expires at the end of the season, but fear not, Preds fans, he’s already signed a six-year extension that’ll keep him in Nashville through the 2022-23 season at a $6.000 million cap hit (beginning next season).

Predators GM David Poile knows he’ll need plenty of depth down the middle for a long playoff run. Nashville has their sights set on a Cup run and given their last Stanley Cup Final appearance, they’ll need one of the best group of centers down the middle, in the event of injury (a la Ryan Johansen).

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Luckily, that’s where Kyle Turris fits the bill. In 544 career NHL games with Ottawa and the Phoenix Coyotes, he’s had 136 goals and 184 assists (320 points). The 3rd overall pick by the Coyotes in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft seeks to win it all with his third team in the NHL.

To complete the deal, the Predators sent Samuel Girard, Vladislav Kamenev and a 2018 2nd round pick to the Avalanche. Girard is a highly touted prospect once log-jammed in Nashville’s immense depth on the blue line, now free to flourish with Colorado and was the 46th overall pick in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft. Kamenev was the 42nd overall choice by the Predators in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft.

While Sakic kept his demands high throughout the entire process of trading Duchene, he may reap the rewards of a plethora of picks, prospects and much needed depth in goal that is all-too-often overlooked (but becomes quite apparent when goalies are injured, let alone one of them– hello, Vegas).

Whether or not Sakic will flip the assets he attained for more remains to be seen– if he’s even the one to do so (there’s no guarantees in the midst of a rebuild, even if the draft picks are one or two calendar years away).


tl:dr The Colorado Avalanche finally traded Matt Duchene to the Ottawa Senators in a three-team trade in which Kyle Turris got shipped from the Sens to the Nashville Predators. In all, Colorado acquired Shane Bowers, Andrew Hammond, Samuel Girard, Vladislav Kamenev, a 2018 1st round pick (OTT), a 2018 2nd round pick (NSH) and a 2019 3rd round pick (OTT).

Colorado makes off with the most assets that could pay off if they draft the right guys or flip for more roster components at a later date, Ottawa got a center that they won’t have to worry about giving a raise this offseason (though they’ll still have to re-sign other large components in the next year or two) and Nashville got Turris locked up to a six-year extension going into effect next season, while also legitimizing themselves as a contender for the Cup this season with a solid core down the middle.


Some fun facts:

Duchene’s contract expires at the end of the 2018-19 season. His current cap hit is $6.000 million. Ottawa has about $3.700 million in cap space currently, according to CapFriendly and will need to re-sign players like Mark Stone and Cody Ceci next July (2018), as well as Erik Karlsson in 2019.

Nashville’s current cap hit of about $70.270 million, with Turris signed to a 6-year, $6.000 million per extension going into effect next season, will be even tighter heading into July 2018, which means they could be the new Washington Capitals in terms of everyone’s “Cup or bust” team this season.

Colorado’s cap hit is now about $66.741 million with a little over $8.000 million in cap space with more to offer throughout the season in terms of potential transactions and expendable rental players come this year’s trade deadline.

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