Category Archives: NHL

Numbers Game: 2018-19 League Forecast Entering March

Happy Meteorological Spring (and when the time comes, actual Spring too as the Spring Equinox falls on… well, it’s written on the calendar in your office somewhere).

Of course, the only day that really matters in March is the 18th (you thought I was going to say the 17th, but we can’t all pretend to be Irish now, can we?).

If you’re new to the sport, that’s the day the Lord Stanley of Preston first presented the idea of the Dominion Hockey Challenge Cup back in 1892 and thus the Stanley Cup was first played for and awarded in 1893.

The original Cup resides in an old bank vault at the Hockey Hall of Fame in Toronto, Ontario and was purchased for ten guineas, which was $48.67 at the time or almost $1,400 in contemporary times.

Anyway, March is a pretty important month.

Teams have added or subtracted to their rosters from the trade deadline and are looking to go down the stretch without any additional injuries or worries heading into the postseason (or for some, the offseason).

Feeling lucky? Is this the year your bracket won’t be busted in the First Round? Let the madness begin with a look at the latest standings forecast* across the league based on all 31 NHL teams’ performances through February 28, 2019.

*Standard disclaimer: This forecast is not an exact science, but rather an educated guess among recent and season long trends, with a foundation steeped in recent records over the last few seasons.

In simple terms, just focus on the standing within the division and less on the point spread. A team isn’t eliminated from postseason contention until they are mathematically eliminated.

Anything can still happen (relatively, of course).

Projected Standings After Five Months

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

  1. p-Tampa Bay Lightning, 121 points (65 games played entering March 1st)
  2. x-Boston Bruins, 115 points (64 GP)
  3. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 105 points (64 GP)
  4. wc1-Montreal Canadiens, 103 points (64 GP)
  5. wc2-Buffalo Sabres, 90 points (63 GP)
  6. Florida Panthers, 82 points (63 GP)
  7. Ottawa Senators, 61 points (64 GP)
  8. Detroit Red Wings, 60 points (64 GP)

In the Atlantic Division, the Tampa Bay Lightning are still on pace for what could almost be the best regular season in league history. Their franchise record ten-game winning streak was halted by the re-hot Boston Bruins on Feb. 28th.

Tampa should still lock up the division (if not the President’s Trophy) with ease, though they are beatable– as proven by the Bruins recent win (ignoring the back-to-back games), as well as the St. Louis Blues’ 1-0 overtime victory on Feb. 7th (more on the Blues later).

Boston, meanwhile, is surging at the right time. After going 7-7-0 in December and 6-3-3 in January, the B’s went without a regulation loss in the month of February, finishing with an 11-0-2 record.

It was the 9th time in franchise history and first time since November 2011, that the Bruins went without a regulation loss in an entire calendar month.

Not to be outdone, the Toronto Maple Leafs are still very alive and well in a divisional spot and for the second straight season appear destined to battle the Bruins in a First Round rematch from last season.

At least one of the Eastern Conference wild card spots in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs will be filled by an Atlantic Division team– the first of which being the Montreal Canadiens.

The Habs are in the hunt and could knock the Maple Leafs out of the last divisional spot with a good run down the stretch, while the second wild card spot is a little harder to project.

It could be the Buffalo Sabres or it could very well be a team that’s surging in the Metropolitan Division.

Metropolitan Division

  1. y-New York Islanders, 113 points (63 GP)
  2. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 101 points (63 GP)
  3. x-Washington Capitals, 92 points (64 GP)
  4. Carolina Hurricanes, 89 points (63 GP)
  5. Pittsburgh Penguins, 87 points (63 GP)
  6. New York Rangers, 77 points (63 GP)
  7. Philadelphia Flyers, 74 points (64 GP)
  8. New Jersey Devils, 61 points (64 GP)

John Tavares wasn’t well-received in his first trip back to Long Island since leaving the New York Islanders for the Leafs in free agency last July, however, Barry Trotz has been adored by Isles fans as the coach of the Metropolitan Division’s best team.

Despite adding a lot of firepower leading up to the trade deadline, the Columbus Blue Jackets aren’t quite a surefire powerhouse in the division, but they should be good enough for home ice advantage in the First Round and a rematch with the defending Stanley Cup champion, Washington Capitals.

It’s a wide-open race for two or three potential playoff spots in the Metropolitan Division, as the Capitals, Carolina Hurricanes and Pittsburgh Penguins all have their sights set on one of two remaining divisional spots or at least one wild card spot in the postseason.

Despite the Capitals edging the Hurricanes and Penguins in this forecast, gut feeling indicates there’s sure to be an upset before the brackets are even finalized.

Carolina is playing really well lately and as those bunch of jerks have shown all season long– you can’t count them out. They also reached 70 points in 61 games played for just the second time in franchise history this season.

The last time they did that was in the 2005-06 season– you know, the one they went on to beat the Edmonton Oilers in the 2006 Stanley Cup Final.

As for the New York Rangers and Philadelphia Flyers, well, there’s always a chance things go south for some of the teams ahead of them– except the Rangers are rebuilding and the Flyers have gone zero weeks without an injury to one of the eight goaltenders they’ve used this season.

Western Conference

Central Division

  1. y-Winnipeg Jets, 104 points (63 GP)
  2. x-St. Louis Blues, 100 points (63 GP)
  3. x-Nashville Predators, 93 points (66 GP)
  4. wc1-Colorado Avalanche, 92 points (64 GP)
  5. Minnesota Wild, 85 points (64 GP)
  6. Dallas Stars, 84 points (64 GP)
  7. Chicago Blackhawks, 75 points (64 GP)

The Western Conference as a whole has been weaker than the Eastern Conference this season, but no division has been quite as lively as the Central Division.

While the Winnipeg Jets soar into the postseason as the top-team in the Central, the St. Louis Blues are attempting to go from last to first– and then some.

St. Louis might not stop at potentially leading the Central Division by the time the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs begin– they could just very well go on to win the Cup. The Blues are that hot.

Meanwhile, the Nashville Predators added a lot of grit leading up to the trade deadline, acquiring Cody McLeod, Brian Boyle and Wayne Simmonds to bolster their crunch to go along with new addition, Mikael Granlund‘s scoring ability.

Anyway, they’ve been slipping as of late and appear destined to miss out on home ice advantage in what will likely be a First Round matchup with St. Louis.

Finally, one of the Western wild cards will surely come from the Central Division teams. Whether that’s the Colorado Avalanche, Minnesota Wild or Dallas Stars will depend on how hot Colorado’s first line is and/or how injured the Wild and Stars are.

Kudos to the Chicago Blackhawks for setting the second half of the season ablaze, though not nearly as mightily as the Blues have, but they’ll still end up last in the Central, but about mid-pack league-wide.

Pacific Division

  1. z-Calgary Flames, 111 points (64 GP)
  2. x-San Jose Sharks, 107 points (64 GP)
  3. x-Vegas Golden Knights, 100 points (65 GP)
  4. wc2-Arizona Coyotes, 91 points (64 GP)
  5. Vancouver Canucks, 88 points (65 GP)
  6. Edmonton Oilers, 84 points (64 GP)
  7. Anaheim Ducks, 75 points (64 GP)
  8. Los Angeles Kings, 68 points (64 GP)

In the most disappointing division of the season, the Calgary Flames have risen a cut above the rest in the West. Not only do they look to lead the conference, but they look to do so in style.

The Flames are a team that’s destined for a deeper run than just a First or Second Round exit in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs, but how much will recent playoff experience for the San Jose Sharks and Vegas Golden Knights play into Calgary’s chances of going far?

Vegas hasn’t been as dominant as they were in their inaugural season, however the Sharks have also had a few slip ups in the last month.

Both teams are looking like they’ll meet in the First Round– a round sooner than their Second Round matchup last postseason. It’s a rematch for the ages for the Golden Knights, as the young franchise looks to continue to add to the nearly 30 years of dismal playoff failure for San Jose.

One of the biggest– and most pleasant– surprises in the Western Conference? The Arizona Coyotes.

The team is destined for a wild card spot this season and just might spoil the party for more than just who they cut out of the playoff picture.

For the Vancouver Canucks, it’s a battle until the end. They might make it, they might not, but next season should be better– just stay the course.

And if you’re the Edmonton Oilers, Anaheim Ducks and/or the Los Angeles Kings, you’ve got a lot of work to do in the offseason.

Analysis: McQuaid’s a solid trade for Columbus

Columbus Blue Jackets General Manager Jarmo Kekalainen checked everything off his shopping list, both in the days leading up to and including the 2019 NHL Trade Deadline.

Kekalainen got a number one center on Friday in Matt Duchene, he added a quality top-nine forward in Ryan Dzingel on Saturday, added depth in the crease with Keith Kinkaid early Monday morning, then completed the puzzle among current NHLers in a transaction with the New York Rangers on Monday afternoon.

The Blue Jackets acquired Adam McQuaid from the Rangers in exchange for Julius Bergman, a 2019 4th round pick and a 2019 7th round pick.

McQuaid, 32, was originally drafted in the 2nd round (55th overall) by Columbus in the 2005 NHL Draft, but was traded to the Boston Bruins on May 16, 2007.

He went on to become a solid top-six defender with the Bruins, winning the Stanley Cup in 2011, while remaining a stay-at-home, shot blocking machine.

John Tortorella is going to like having him around in the defensive zone.

For the first time since being drafted by the Blue Jackets, McQuaid will have a chance to suit up in Columbus red, white and blue.

In 36 games for the Rangers this season, he has two goals and three assists (five points), with a plus-three rating and 33 penalty minutes.

Hampered by injuries in his final season with Boston, McQuaid amassed 1-3–4 totals in 38 games with the Bruins in 2017-18 and has 15-56–71 totals in 498 career NHL games with New York and Boston.

In 68 career Stanley Cup Playoff games, he has three goals and eight assists (11 points) along with a plus-13 rating and 30 penalty minutes.

McQuaid scored the only goal in Boston’s series clinching sweep of the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2013 Eastern Conference Final and had four assists in the B’s 2011 Stanley Cup championship.

He should slide in place of Scott Harrington or Dean Kukan down the stretch for Columbus and help bring some vital postseason experience, along with veteran leadership, to the Blue Jackets blue line.

Bergman, 23, was previously acquired by Columbus from the Ottawa Senators on Feb. 22nd as part of the Duchene trade and appeared in 33 American Hockey League games with the Belleville Senators this season prior to being assigned to the Cleveland Monsters (before being traded once again).

The young defender had six assists with Belleville and has 16-51–67 totals in 223 career AHL games with the Worcester Sharks, San Jose Barracuda and Belleville.

He was originally drafted by the San Jose Sharks in the 2nd round (46th overall) of the 2014 NHL Draft.

With the addition of a 4th round and 7th round pick in this year’s draft, the Rangers now have ten picks in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft in June.

Analysis: Stone rocks Vegas offense

Vegas Golden Knights General Manager George McPhee made the biggest splash at the annual NHL Trade Deadline, acquiring Mark Stone and Tobias Lindberg from the Ottawa Senators in exchange for Erik Brannstrom, Oscar Lindberg and a 2020 2nd round pick (originally belonging to the Dallas Stars).

In the grand scheme of things, Ottawa completes the circle of assets for Marc Methot, as the Golden Knights claimed the defender from the Senators in the 2017 Expansion Draft, then traded Methot to the Stars for Dylan Ferguson and a 2020 2nd round pick.

Oh, also, the Sens got rid of their top three scorers in a span of three days leading up to and including the deadline day itself.

But for Vegas, Stone, 26, joins the Golden Knights riding a career-high 28 goals and 34 assists (62 points) in 59 games played this season. He’s reached the 20-goal plateau in five consecutive seasons and had a career-high 42 assists last season, amassing 20-42–62 totals in 58 games.

Short of Alex Ovechkin‘s ability to score almost 50 goals a season for the last decade (basically), Stone is perhaps the most consistent goal scorer– and he’s only just reaching the arch of his prime.

As such, Vegas was quick to get Stone to agree to terms on a contract extension that he cannot technically sign until March 1st. The expected deal will be an eight-year contract worth $9.500 million per season, as first reported by TSN’s Bob McKenzie.

Stone has 123-188–311 totals in 366 career NHL games with Ottawa and five goals and eight assists (13 points) in 27 career postseason games. He was originally drafted by the Senators in the 6th round (178th overall) of the 2010 NHL Draft.

He’ll immediately make an impact on the first line alongside Jonathan Marchessault and, pending-RFA, William Karlsson, while Max Pacioretty, Paul Stastny and Alex Tuch continue to round-out Vegas’ top-six forwards.

Should the Golden Knights start to peak at the right time, they’ll look to be as much of a force– if not better– than they were last season in their run to the 2018 Stanley Cup Final.

Tobias Lindberg, meanwhile, rejoins the Golden Knights family after previously being acquired by Vegas– along with a 2018 6th round pick– in a trade with the Toronto Maple Leafs for Calvin Pickard on Oct. 6, 2017.

The 23-year-old spent the entire 2017-18 season with the Chicago Wolves (AHL), but was later traded to the Pittsburgh Penguins on Feb. 23, 2018. On Dec. 5, 2018, Lindberg was once again on the move, this time being traded to the Senators.

He has appeared in six career NHL games with the Maple Leafs during the 2015-16 season and recorded two assists in that span. He had 5-7–12 totals in 34 AHL games with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins and Belleville Senators this season.

While Oscar Lindberg, 27, is a current NHL roster player in the deal, the biggest piece in return to the Senators is Brannstrom.

The 19-year-old defender was drafted by the Golden Knights in the 1st round (15th overall) of the 2017 NHL Entry Draft and recorded seven goals and 21 assists (28 points) in 41 games with the Wolves this season.

He also had 2-2–4 totals in five preseason games for Vegas this season and most recently captained Team Sweden in the 2019 IIHF World Junior Championship to a perfect 4-0-0-0 preliminary round record, while leading all defenders in the tournament in scoring with four goals in five games.

In the long run, Brannstrom might be the perfect replacement for Erik Karlsson (traded in the offseason to the San Jose Sharks) on Ottawa’s blue line as a puck moving, offensive minded, defender.

The elder Lindberg, on the other hand, is in his sixth professional season, having recorded 12 points (four goals, eight assists) in 35 games this season for the Golden Knights.

In his career, Lindberg has 34-37–71 totals in 232 games with Vegas and the New York Rangers. He was claimed from the Rangers in the 2017 Expansion Draft by the Golden Knights and has three goals and two assists (five points) in 17 career Stanley Cup Playoff games.

He was originally drafted by the Phoenix Coyotes (now Arizona Coyotes) in the 2nd round (57th overall) of the 2010 NHL Draft.

While Sens fans may be disappointed to see the last of their top scorers be dealt to a playoff contender, at least the return on the Stone deal was close to what it should’ve actually been compared to previous high-profile trades out of Ottawa.

Though they really could’ve gotten at least another draft pick, if not a first round pick in this deal for someone of Stone’s caliber.

Analysis: Colorado’s brass shines with Brassard

Monday afternoon, Colorado Avalanche General Manager Joe Sakic addressed a need in a deal with Florida Panthers General Manager Dale Tallon.

Sakic needed a third line center and he only needed to go down the hallway to find one. No, really, Colorado and Florida were facing each other Monday night, so the logistics of the trade were pretty simple.

Colorado acquired Derick Brassard and a conditional 2020 6th round pick from Florida in exchange for a 2020 3rd round pick. If Brassard re-signs with the Avalanche, Colorado will not receive Florida’s 6th round pick in 2020.

Brassard, 31, has ten goals and nine assists (19 points) in 50 games for the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Panthers this season. He was acquired by Florida on Feb. 1st and have 1-3–4 totals in 10 games with the Panthers prior to being traded twice in the same season for the second year in-a-row.

Originally drafted in the 1st round (6th overall) by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the 2006 NHL Draft, Brassard has 172-275–447 totals in 766 career NHL games with the Blue Jackets, New York Rangers, Ottawa Senators, Penguins and Panthers.

He has 23 goals and 36 assists (59 points) in 90 career Stanley Cup Playoff appearances and helped lead Canada with 11 points (five goals, six assists) to the gold medal at the 2016 IIHF World Championship.

Though being traded a bunch of times can get tiring, there’s always one thing that can be pulled away from it– you’re in demand.

As long as there’s a GM out there that wants you on their team, that’s a good sign. Right now, Sakic wants Brassard on his team.

He’ll fit in with Tyson Jost and Matt Calvert as an anchoring presence down the middle to provide some much needed depth in the Avs lineup that– should they make the postseason– might just get them into the Second Round at least.

As for Florida, Tallon now owns two 3rd round picks in the 2020 NHL Draft. Should the Panthers figure things out in the offseason, that extra pick on hand might be just enough to attract a larger return at next season’s trade deadline.

Of course, if Florida is content with their current plan– whatever that may be– or fails to bring in some big talent in the offseason, then stockpiling 2020 Draft picks isn’t a terrible idea.

Next year’s draft looks like it’ll be deeper than this coming offseason’s draft class.

Analysis: Kinkaid paints light in Columbus’ crease

Columbus Blue Jackets General Manager Jarmo Kekalainen was active on Monday, first adding depth in the crease, having acquired goaltender, Keith Kinkaid, from the New Jersey Devils in exchange for a 2022 5th round pick.

Kinkaid, 29, has a 15-18-6 record, 3.66 goals against average and ,891 save percentage in 41 games played this season playing behind a lackluster Devils defense.

Sergei Bobrovsky‘s 2.75 GAA and .908 SV% in 45 games played keeps him ahead of Kinkaid as the Blue Jackets starter, however Kinkaid provides some healthy competition for the role of the backup goaltender down the stretch as Joonas Korpisalo‘s 3.07 GAA and .896 SV% in 21 games played hasn’t been ideal.

Kinkaid has a 64-55-17 record with a 2.90 GAA and .906 SV% in 151 career games with New Jersey since making his NHL debut in the 2012-13 season.

He has a career-high three shutouts this season and led the United States to a bronze medal at the 2018 IIHF World Championship, where he posted a 2.29 GAA and .912 SV% in nine games.

It’s a low risk, high reward transaction for Columbus, as Kekalainen only gave up a 5th round pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, despite ridding his organization of nearly every selection they’ll have in the 2019 Draft by Monday’s 3 p.m. ET trade deadline.

No, seriously, the Blue Jackets have their own 3rd round pick and Calgary’s 7th round pick in this June’s Draft.

Analysis: Jets net key center for 2nd year in-a-row at deadline

Last season, the Winnipeg Jets added Paul Stastny from the St. Louis Blues for their deep run into the 2018 Western Conference Finals.

Though things came up short in five games to the Vegas Golden Knights– who would go on to sign Stastny in free agency– the Jets are ready to go at it again and push further.

This season, Winnipeg has acquired Kevin Hayes from the New York Rangers in exchange for Brendan Lemieux, a 2019 1st round pick and a conditional 2022 4th round pick.

The Jets’ 2019 1st round pick in the trade is Top-3 lottery protected on the off chance Winnipeg skids off the runway to the postseason over the next month. If that happens, the Rangers will receive Winnipeg’s 2020 1st round pick instead.

If the Jets win the 2019 Stanley Cup Final, then New York will receive Winnipeg’s 2022 4th round pick.

Hayes, 26, is a native of Dorchester, Massachusetts and has 14 goals and 28 assists (42 points) in 51 games this season for the Rangers. Hs has 87-129–216 totals in 361 career games with New York and was originally drafted by the Chicago Blackhawks in the 1st round (24th overall) of the 2010 NHL Draft.

As with last season’s acquisition of Stastny, Hayes adds to the strength down the middle for Winnipeg’s top-six forwards, likely suiting up on the second line with Kyle Connor and Nikolaj Ehlers.

Hayes is a pending-UFA at season’s end with a cap hit of $5.175 million.

Lemieux, 22, has nine goals and two assists (11 points) in 44 games with the Jets this season and currently leads NHL rookies in penalty minutes with 64.

Originally drafted by the Buffalo Sabres in the 2nd round (31st overall) of the 2014 NHL Draft, Lemieux made his NHL debut with the Jets on Oct. 20, 2017 after previously being dealt to Winnipeg on Feb. 11, 2015 as part of the Sabres/Jets Tyler MyersEvander Kane trade.

In 53 career games, Lemieux has 10-2–12 totals with a plus-12 rating and 85 penalty minutes. He is a pending-RFA at the end of the season.

New York currently has five picks in the first two rounds of the 2019 NHL Entry Draft.

Analysis: Sharks bolster Cup run odds, add Nyquist

Early on Monday morning, while most people were asleep in their beds, comfortably under their covers, the San Jose Sharks and Detroit Red Wings completed a trade.

Detroit sent Gustav Nyquist to the Sharks in exchange for a 2019 2nd round pick and a conditional 2020 3rd round pick.

San Jose will sent the Red Wings the lower of the Sharks or Florida Panthers’ 2019 2nd round picks and the conditional 2020 3rd round pick can become a 2020 2nd round pick if the Sharks reach the 2019 Stanley Cup Final or if Nyquist re-signs this offseason.

The Red Wings retained 30% of Nyquist’s salary ($1.425 million retained) in the transaction.

Nyquist, 28, has 16 goals and 33 assists (49 points) with the Red Wings this season in 62 games played and 125-170–295 totals in 481 career NHL games with Detroit.

He was originally drafted by the Red Wings in the 4th round (121st overall) of the 2008 NHL Draft and represented Sweden at the 2014 Winter Games in Sochi.

San Jose’s offense has been hot as of late (averaging 3.73 goals per fame in the month of February), but not nearly as hot as their defenders have been all season with Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson anchoring the blue line.

Nyquist solidifies the Sharks’ top-nine forwards and will likely suit up alongside Joe Thornton and Kevin Labanc, while the Red Wings have bolstered their potential prospect pool with 14 selections in the first three rounds of the next three year’s of drafts (2019, 2020 and 2021).

Detroit currently has one 1st round pick, three 2nd round picks and one 3rd round pick in the 2019 Draft, as well as one 1st round pick, two 2nd round picks and two 3rd round picks in the 2020 Draft.

2019 NHL Trade Deadline Recap

Below is a quick recap of all the trades that officially occurred on Monday prior to the National Hockey League’s 3 p.m. ET trade deadline.


Early Monday morning the San Jose Sharks acquired F Gustav Nyquist from the Detroit Red Wings in exchange for a 2019 2nd round pick and a conditional 2020 3rd round pick. The 2020 3rd round pick becomes a 2nd round pick if the Sharks reach the Stanley Cup Final or Nyquist re-signs.

Detroit retained 30% of Nyquist’s salary in the transaction. MORE

The Anaheim Ducks completed a minor swap with the Ottawa Senators exchanging F Brian Gibbons for D Patrick Sieloff.

G Keith Kinkaid was traded by the New Jersey Devils to the Columbus Blue Jackets in exchange for a 2022 5th round pick. MORE

The New York Rangers sent F Kevin Hayes to the Winnipeg Jets in exchange for F Brendan Lemieux, a 2019 1st round pick and a conditional 2022 4th round pick.

Winnipeg’s 2019 1st round pick in the trade is Top-3 lottery protected. MORE

The Montreal Canadiens sent F Michael Chaput to the Arizona Coyotes in exchange for F Jordan Weal.

The Florida Panthers traded F Tomas Jurco to the Carolina Hurricanes for future considerations.

F Cliff Pu was traded by the Carolina Hurricanes to the Florida Panthers for future considerations.

F Derick Brassard was traded by the Florida Panthers along with a conditional 2020 6th round pick to the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for a 2020 3rd round pick.

If Brassard re-signs with the Avalanche, Colorado will not receive Florida’s 6th round pick. MORE

The New York Rangers traded D Adam McQuaid to the Columbus Blue Jackets in exchange for D Julius Bergman, a 2019 4th round pick and a 2019 7th round pick. MORE

The Calgary Flames acquired D Oscar Fantenberg from the Los Angeles Kings in exchange for a conditional 2020 4th round pick.

F Mikael Granlund was traded by the Minnesota Wild to the Nashville Predators in exchange for F Kevin Fiala.

F Mark Stone and F Tobias Lindberg were traded by the Ottawa Senators to the Vegas Golden Knights for D Erik Brannstrom, F Oscar Lindberg and a 2020 2nd round pick (originally belonging to DAL).

Stone has agreed on an eight-year extension with Vegas worth $9.500 million per season, but cannot sign it until March 1st. MORE

The Nashville Predators acquired F Wayne Simmonds from the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for F Ryan Hartman and a conditional 2020 4th round draft pick.

If Nashville wins one round of the playoffs, the pick becomes a 2020 3rd round pick.

D Michael Del Zotto was traded to the St. Louis Blues in exchange for a 2019 6th round draft pick in return to the Anaheim Ducks.

F Marcus Johansson was shipped from the New Jersey Devils to the Boston Bruins in exchange for a 2019 2nd round pick and a 2020 4th round pick. New Jersey retained 40% of Johansson’s salary in the trade.

The Winnipeg Jets traded a 2020 7th round pick to the Minnesota Wild for F Matt Hendricks.

The Pittsburgh Penguins acquired D Erik Gudbranson from the Vancouver Canucks in exchange for F Tanner Pearson.

D Nathan Beaulieu was traded by the Buffalo Sabres to the Winnipeg Jets for a 6th round pick.

Winnipeg also traded a 2021 7th round pick to the Florida Panthers for D Bogdan Kiselevich.

The San Jose Sharks sent F Linus Karlsson to the Vancouver Canucks for F Jonathan Dahlen.

In their sixth trade of the day, the Winnipeg Jets traded F Nic Petan to the Toronto Maple Leafs for F Par Lindholm.

The Florida Panthers traded D Chris Wideman to the Pittsburgh Penguins for F Jean-Sebastien Dea.

F Alex Broadhurst was traded by the Columbus Blue Jackets to the Nashville Predators for future considerations.

Vegas Golden Knights 2018-19 Forecast Through 62 Games

Coming off a 3-2 shootout loss to the Boston Bruins on Wednesday, the Vegas Golden Knights (32-25-5, 69 points, 3rd in the Pacific Division) have 20 games remaining in the 2018-19 regular season.

These aren’t your father’s Golden Knights, as production is down from their inaugural season in just their 2nd season of existence.

Though Marc-Andre Fleury (29-18-5 record, 2.60 goals against average, .908 save percentage in 52 games played) remains Vegas’ starter on an almost nightly basis, backup goaltender, Malcolm Subban (3-6-0, 2.76 GAA, .912 SV% in 10 GP) has struggled to carry his own weight.

Despite bringing in Paul Stastny via free agency and Max Pacioretty via trade, the Golden Knights haven’t been immune to the injury bug this season.

Stastny and Pacioretty themselves have joined Reilly Smith and others throughout the lineup on the injured reserve or out of playing action for various points of the season.

While the Pacific Division title might be out of reach for Vegas this season, a divisional spot in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs is all but assured as long as the floor doesn’t fallout from underneath Gerard Gallant and his players.

Of note, the Arizona Coyotes are emerging once again with a late season push for the playoffs– and this time around, they’re doing it without their starting goaltender, Antti Raanta (out for the season due to injury).

Plus the Vancouver Canucks are still in contention and, well, that’s about it, realistically among Pacific Division teams that still have a chance for the last divisional spot and/or a Western Conference wild card berth.

Anyway, back to the Golden Knights.

Here’s a look at the latest Vegas forecast– keeping in mind there are many variables that can and will effect the final outcome, such as injuries and/or being called up, assigned, traded, lucky or unlucky.

This forecast is just an educated guess. It’s a glimpse of what could be or could’ve been by the end of the regular season.

As always, my degree is in communication– not math– and hockey is naturally steeped in context and holistic unpredictability. Nothing can account for sheer puck luck, the odd bounce or a blown call.

If a player reaches the expected outcome, they’ve met expectations. If said player exceeds the forecasted stats, they’ve exceeded expectations (naturally). Of course, if a player does not perform, then they did not live up to expectations.

On a game-to-game basis, whatever’s on the scoresheet can indicate general trends that can be further broken down into an educated forecast.

At best, it’s a guess. At worst, well, it doesn’t really matter– it’s not like Golden Knights General Manager George McPhee is reading this and making his roster decisions based on what’s here, right?

If he is, I’d like a job, please. Thanks.

Vegas Golden Knights Forecast Through 62 Games (20 Games Remaining)
WordPress, when are you going to make the ”gallery” option again (and actually make it good like how it used to be)?

Among forwards, Vegas’ consistent first line last season of Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson and Smith hasn’t had as much consistent luck and skill this season.

Though Smith has battled injury this season, Marchessault remains one of the Golden Knights most consistent performers expected to lead his team in goals (25) and points (54) with 25-29–54 expected totals.

Now what about Karlsson?

Good question, what about him? Things haven’t gone exactly as planned in terms of capitalizing on his breakout season last season with a new contract in the offseason and higher expectations for this season.

Karlsson’s bridge, one-year, extension last summer coming off the backs of a 43-goal season has only managed 18 goals thus far– including four goals in the last 22 games for the Golden Knights.

Given his current trend, Karlsson is expected to amass 21-23–44 totals. He’d be tied with Pacioretty for 2nd place in expected goals (21) and 3rd in expected points (44) on the roster, but nowhere near the emergent star in the making that he was last season.

While he very well could bounce back– similar to Smith in nature, following a good-year, bad-year, good-year, bad-year pattern– the phrase “what have you done for me yesterday” won’t help him in his next contract negotiation this summer unless McPhee gives him the benefit of the doubt.

Meanwhile, Alex Tuch is expected to finish the season with a career-high 20-33–53 expected totals.

That’s comforting to hear for a team that needs to rely on secondary scoring in the midst of a recession in primary production.

Tuch is expected to lead in assists (33), followed by Smith (30) and Marchessault (29), while Marchessault is destined to lead in points (54) over Tuch (53) and Karlsson (44).

On defense, Vegas’ blue line will finish off the season being led by Shea Theodore (11-21–32 expected totals), followed by Colin Miller (30 expected points) and Nate Schmidt (25 expected points despite missing the first 20 games of the season while serving a suspension for testing positive for a performance enhancing drug).

In net, Fleury looks like he’s bound to break under the weight of all the minutes he’s been playing and will play this season. A 2.74 expected GAA and .909 expected SV% is not starting goaltender material, unless we’re talking about Sergei Bobrovsky with the Columbus Blue Jackets or something.

But it’s not like Gallant can really count on his current backup to offset some of Fleury’s load. Subban’s expected 2.70 GAA and .912 SV% isn’t tremendous either.

If anything, it’s an indication that McPhee could help bolster his team with the acquisition of an extra goaltender by the trade deadline.

Someone like Ryan Miller, 38-years-old, could help steal some crucial points for the Golden Knights down the stretch if the San Jose Sharks aren’t already in the process of completing a trade for the goaltender with the Anaheim Ducks.

Growing pains are a fact of life– especially in sports– and Vegas is going through puberty already in its 2nd season. This season’s been full of highs, lows and awkward phases that hopefully will end in a glow up.

Otherwise we’ll all be looking back at this season shaking our heads at how it could pull off that much denim or something back in the day.

Boston Bruins 2018-19 Forecast Through 60 Games

The Boston Bruins and the rest of the NHL are nearing the annual trade deadline. Through 60 games played, the Bruins are currently 2nd in the Atlantic Division with a 35-17-8 record (78 points) behind the Tampa Bay Lightning (46-11-4, 96 points).

Wednesday night, the B’s will play their 61st game of the season when they visit the Vegas Golden Knights (new forecast coming soon for that club too), but before they do that, here’s a quick review and a glimpse of what could be based on this latest forecast with 22 games remaining in the 2018-19 regular season for Boston.

After getting off to a quick start in October, despite a blowout on Opening Night, the Bruins fell into a bit of a lull in November and December.

Jaroslav Halak (15-9-4 record, 2.35 goals against average, .923 save percentage in 30 games played) helped carry the weight through November, before regressing towards the end of December into January. As long as the wins rolled in, the team was making progress.

Tuukka Rask (20-8-4, 2.45 GAA, .918 SV% in 33 GP) has not lost in regulation in his last 15 starts as the B’s carry a six-game winning streak into Vegas for Wednesday night’s matchup.

Though Halak is expected to start against the Golden Knights, Rask and his counterpart have formed a solid 1A/1B option for the Bruins all season long– considering league scoring is up and the B’s have allowed the 3rd fewest goals against (155) in the league, behind only the New York Islanders (138) and Dallas Stars (154).

The Bruins went 7-7-0 in December and improved to 6-3-3 in January.

Yes, I know that’s still a .500 win-percentage, but points percentage wise, that’s 14 out of 28 possible points in December and 15 out of a possible 24 points in January (progress!).

Yet, by the end of January and through all of February thus far, the B’s have been starting to reach another gear.

The first line has been consistent all year, while General Manager Don Sweeney is in search of the last missing piece among top-six forwards to complete the second line.

Meanwhile, Sweeney was working the trade deals on Wednesday, acquiring Charlie Coyle (10-18–28 totals in 60 games played this season, 91-151–242 totals in 479 career games) from the Minnesota Wild in exchange for Ryan Donato (3-6–9 totals in 34 games, 11-7–18 totals in 46 career NHL games) and a conditional 2019 5th round pick.

If the Bruins advance to the Second Round of the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs, then the 5th round pick becomes a 2019 4th round pick (originally belonging to the New York Rangers, previously acquired by the Bruins along with Steven Kampfer in exchange for Adam McQuaid on Sept. 11, 2018).

Coyle will boost Boston’s third line and can play second line minutes if necessary, but isn’t the end-all, be-all solution for a Cup run.

Anyway, without further ado, here’s a look at the latest Bruins forecast– keeping in mind there are many variables that can and will change things, like injuries and/or being called up, assigned, traded, lucky or unlucky.

This forecast is a glimpse at expected outcomes.

If a player does better, then they exceeded expectations. If said player does worse, then they didn’t meet expectations (for one reason or another).

My degree is in communication– not math– and hockey is naturally steeped in context and holistic unpredictability. Nothing can account for sheer puck luck, the odd bounce or a blown call.

Whatever’s on the scoresheet every night can indicate general trends that can be deciphered to make educated guesses.

Boston Bruins Forecast Through 60 Games Played (20 Games Remaining)
I really miss the days of making a nice gallery, but WordPress messed around with that feature…

First, I know what you’re thinking, “but Nick, how come you still have Donato on the roster still and haven’t included Coyle?”

There’s two parts to my answer: 1) I ran this forecast after the conclusion of Monday night’s, 6-5, overtime win against the San Jose Sharks, so 2) the Coyle-Donato trade was made early in the writing of this post, so Coyle’s forecast will be reflected at a later date.

Second, I know you’re also looking at Jake DeBrusk’s expected stats saying “uh, there’s only 20 games left, he can’t possibly score 21 more goals and amass 16 more assists for a total of 65 points this season” and you’re right.

With DeBrusk’s recent scoring stretch over the last 20 games, his latest forecast gives a bit of a look at what could have been if he hadn’t been going through streaks like he has.

The same can be applied to David Pastrnak’s expected 32-37–69 totals. Prior to getting injured, Pastrnak’s last forecast had him around the 40-goal plateau.

After his left thumb surgery– in addition to having missed the last few games, as well as his recent decline in goal scoring over the last 20 games– his numbers are more in line with what to expect when he returns, whenever that is.

At best, Pastrnak misses the “at least” two weeks he was supposed to miss, makes his return and picks up as close to where he left off as possible.

At worst, he only scores a few more goals this season after returning later than expected (in the best-case scenario), but is back to being his normal self in a postseason run.

Anyway, Boston’s offense looks like it’ll be led by Brad Marchand with 85 points on the season. Marchand also looks to lead the team in assists with 58 expected apples, topping Patrice Bergeron (49 expected assists), Torey Krug (48) and David Krejci (47).

In goal scoring, Pastrnak remains supreme with 32 expected goals, leading Bergeron (28 expected goals), Marchand (27) and Krejci (16).

On defense, Krug (9-48–57 expected totals) dominates the two-way aspect of the game from the blue line, despite missing a chunk of time due to injury earlier in the season.

Meanwhile, Charlie McAvoy (7-22–29 expected totals) and Matt Grzelcyk (2-18–20 expected totals) continue to be vital assets alongside their captain and anchor, 41-year-old (soon to be 42-years-old on March 18th), Zdeno Chara (5-11–16).

In goal, Rask is destined to settle in with a 2.37 GAA and a .921 SV%, while Halak backstops the team to a 2.40 GAA, as well as a .921 SV% himself.

That’s some consistent goaltending in the crease and plenty to smile about if Sweeney can add more offensive prowess in secondary scoring and perhaps add a depth blue line asset for the playoffs.