Category Archives: Projected Stats Tracker

Ever wondered what the future might look like? Well, Nick Lanciani tries to give you a glimpse of just that for every player on the Boston Bruins and Arizona Coyotes this season here on the Projected Stats Tracker page.

Boston Through 60 (2016-2017)

Raise your hand if you’ve been staying up late for the last week to watch Bruins games without having one sip of coffee to do so. Anyone? No? Just me. Okay then.

Anyway, here’s a look at the way things stand after 60 games (through Wednesday night’s action in Anaheim) for the Boston Bruins.

Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak are in the fight of their lives to lay claim to the status as the best goal scorer for the Bruins this season. Marchand is on track to edge Pastrnak in the scoring race this season with Boston with 72 points to Pastrnak’s 64. However, Pastrnak is apt to leading Marchand in goals scored at season’s end, as shown below.

Additionally, the line of Patrice Bergeron, Marchand and David Backes has shown signs of being like the days of Bergeron, Marchand and Mark Recchi at times. More statistical evaluation, as well as the eye test, will yield further analysis, but there’s something promising about the likes of Bergeron and Marchand working with the power forward who’s not afraid to go to the net (Backes) in the chemistry that seems natural.

David Krejci and Pastrnak have appeared to have found their own peanut butter and jelly in 21-year-old rookie Peter Cehlarik. Simply put, I wish we could get a full season of the 83-46-88 line.

Other bright spots include career years for Frank Vatrano and Torey Krug, as well as a tremendous offensive output for the usually goal scoring inept, Adam McQuaid— everything is relative, keep in mind.

On pace for three goals, McQuaid is in the midst of perhaps his most all around season as the guy who’s lovable in the locker room, will beat you up on the ice and knows and plays his role well enough to contribute when he can in a full 60 minute effort.

The continued transition from Claude Julien to Bruce Cassidy will show more results in the next 20 games, but as shown in the data so far, the Cassidy era Bruins will be better off at offensive production and efficiency.

After deciding on a backup (though Don Sweeney has indicated an interest in acquiring a backup at the trade deadline on March 1st, if available), the Bruins are rolling with Anton Khudobin playing behind Tuukka Rask.

Rask might end up appearing in 69 games this season, which, granted is better than 70+ games, is still not ideal for balancing work and play (or more appropriately, rest). He is still on pace for a GAA of 2.12 and a save percentage of .923. Both of which are impressive in light of the last couple of seasons.

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Boston Bruins Projections- Through game 60 of 82

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For comparison, here’s how the Bruins were projected to do at Game 0 of 82 (prior to the start of the 2016-2017 regular season):

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Boston Through 40 (2016-2017)

By: Nick Lanciani

In another rendition of my season long look at projected Boston Bruins stats, here’s how things are going through 40 games played (yes, I know, I’m a little late to posting this, but hey, life is kind of going on outside of the Internet, ya know).

Despite cooling off as of late, David Pastrnak is still on pace for a career year to remember in Boston. A slow year for Patrice Bergeron is still a lot better year than all of our years combined. Given the eye test as of late, Brad Marchand is waking up, despite what his 22-35-57 projected totals say.

Across the roster, the Bruins are dominating the Corsi for% game. The only problem is that they’re having a hard time converting immense offensive production and efficiency into goals. Additionally, plus-minus is not Boston’s best friend right now, despite having stellar nights in and out from Tuukka Rask in goal. While Rask has been outstanding, that whole “goals in, goals out” model doesn’t appear to be working for the skaters in front of him in goal differential and the like.

Boston’s rookie trio of Austin Czarnik, Anton Blidh and Brandon Carlo look to be contributors down the remaining stretch, but don’t look for their play to show up in the points column too much. Instead, take your eye off the puck, because that’s where they reside, setting up the big plays.

Finally, about the Bruins goalies…

Rask shouldn’t play upwards of 60 games, but if he has to, this year appears to be an acceptable year to do so.

Anton Khudobin was sent to Providence after having played thus far worse than he did in nine games last season with the Anaheim Ducks before being sent to San Diego.

With a few more games under his belt, Zane McIntyre should come into his own on the NHL level. Until then, the 10-0-0 goalie in the AHL so far this year is still looking for his first win in the NHL (which would certainly help my forecast function in Excel and allow me to say more).

Standard disclaimer:

“Keep in mind, every stat is based off of a player’s entire career and may not reflect well with the other stats projected for this current season (a.k.a. goals + assists might not equal the number of points shown in the points category), because again, each stat is forecasted individually.

Italics indicates a player currently with their respective AHL affiliate. Underlined player stats indicate a player on the IR (which, admittedly, I’ll do my best to keep up with, but might not have perfect every time, so forgive me if I mistakenly label an injury or fail to label one entirely).”

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Boston Bruins Projections- Through game 40 of 82

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For comparison, here’s how the Bruins were projected to do at Game 0 of 82 (prior to the start of the 2016-2017 regular season):

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*I keep saying I’m going to get around to projecting stats for the Arizona Coyotes and I really do mean it. These things take some time by hand, so please forgive me. It’ll probably be some time soon(ish).*

 

Boston Through 20

By: Nick Lanciani

Hey guys, below you’ll see a look at my current projections for Boston Bruins skaters and goaltenders through 20 games into the season. Compared with the projections entering this season, David Pastrnak is a bright spot for the Bruins, Patrice Bergeron is off to a slow start (and that will affect his season totals) and well, they’re a team that’s capable of being the team that they currently are (outside of a playoff spot).

If you’re big into plus-minus, then you might want to look away from my Boston projections for their remaining 62 games (okay 61 now technically, with their loss to Calgary on Friday night, but that game was not included in any of my calculations).

I’ll have an updated look at how the B’s are progressing through 40 games played when the time comes. Likewise, I’ll have a look at the Arizona Coyotes through 20 games, hopefully in the next few days (if not, it’s because I’m busy presenting my Corsi capstone project— wish me luck, I guess).

And as I always write:

“Keep in mind, every stat is based off of a player’s entire career and may not reflect well with the other stats projected for this current season (a.k.a. goals + assists might not equal the number of points shown in the points category), because again, each stat is forecasted individually.

Italics indicates a player currently with their respective AHL affiliate. Underlined player stats indicate a player on the IR (which, admittedly, I’ll do my best to keep up with, but might not have perfect every time, so forgive me if I mistakenly label an injury or fail to label one entirely).”

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Boston Bruins Projections- Through game 20 of 82

Bruins forwards

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Bruins goalies

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Corsi for% projections for Boston roster skaters

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For comparison, here’s how the Bruins were projected to do at Game 0 of 82 (prior to the start of the 2016-2017 regular season):

 

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2016-2017 Projections- ARI and BOS

By: Nick Lanciani

Below are my projections for both the Boston Bruins and Arizona Coyotes as they were before either team played a game (I know the season started already, but I didn’t have enough time in a day to compile all of these exactly as I wanted to because I’m a perfectionist). So without further ado, here are some projected stats.

Keep in mind, every stat is based off of a player’s entire career and may not reflect well with the other stats projected for this current season (a.k.a. goals + assists might not equal the number of points shown in the points category), because again, each stat is forecasted individually.

Italics indicates a player currently with their respective AHL affiliate. Underlined player stats indicate a player on the IR (which, admittedly, I’ll do my best to keep up with, but might not have perfect every time, so forgive me if I mistakenly label an injury or fail to label one entirely).

Also, I don’t mess with predicting anything for rookies until they’ve played a few NHL games, so if you’re looking for how well one of them will do for your team here, sorry. Unlike last season, I won’t be able to update everything after every 10 games, but I’ll try my best to keep things updated after every 20 games (or so). At the very least, I’ll be sure to update things halfway through the season (41 games) on this page and whenever I get around to it for individual player’s based on their performance on Twitter (as exhibited by my Brad Marchand and David Backes related tweets below from Thursday night).

Likewise, I might add more Corsi projections than just Corsi for%.

Arizona Coyotes Projections- Game 0 of 82

Coyotes forwards

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Coyotes goalies

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Corsi for% projections for Arizona roster skaters

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*indicates that the current projection is regarded as unreliable based on previous career performance (in other words, it’s an outlier)

Boston Bruins Projections- Game 0 of 82

Bruins forwards

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Bruins goalies

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Corsi for% projections for Boston roster skaters

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Forever Archived 2015-2016 Stats

By: Nick Lanciani

So I’m in the process of changing up how I’ll present some projected stats this season and moving forward (for now, at least). Having said that, there’ll be a few changes to the way this page works. For starters, it’s no longer a page, technically speaking, but I’m sure you don’t want to be bored with website construction stuff. This season I will be tracking two teams, the Boston Bruins (predictably) and the Arizona Coyotes (because they follow us on Twitter, so it’s like we’re best friends and I’m doing them a favor). Also, if John Chayka sees this, then maybe he should hire me. Please. Someone. Hello?

With the increasingly large swath of data that I have to trudge through and the many things I have going on in life currently (like looking at Corsi Twitter data for a content analysis using grounded theory— you bet it’s a lot of fun), it’s looking like I will only be able to update the projections after every 20 games or so, instead of after every 10 games. I’d love to project stats for every player in the NHL someday, but alas…

I’ve already completed projections for one of the two teams mentioned above and will be finishing the other team up by the weekend, so I’ll retroactively post how both teams are supposed to perform this season after the first couple of games have been played.

For now, I’ll leave you all with a memory of the golden days of how I did things just last season.

How I used to run my projected stats…

Using Microsoft Excel I display just how much I don’t have a life on this page. After every ten games or so, I update my projections for every player currently on the Boston Bruins, compile the results on one document, and then display my findings here for you to determine if someone’s doing well or not. As an armchair GM you can always wish that someone would get traded, but maybe now you’ll have something to back those demands up.

I would have tried to compile projections for every team in the NHL this season, however, I simply do not have enough of time currently to commit to that. Hopefully sometime this summer I’ll have a few more teams up here.

I will update the Bruins projections after every ten games and leave all of my findings for your viewing pleasure and so you can make your own analysis as the season progresses.

(Just click on the chart for slightly improved quality).

2015-2016 Season Projections

Boston Bruins Projections After 80 of 82 Games Played

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Boston Bruins Projections After 70 of 82 Games Played

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Boston Bruins Projections After 60 of 82 Games Played

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Boston Bruins Projections After 50 of 82 Games Played

(my data after 50 games played deleted itself :,( sorry for the inconvenience)

Boston Bruins Projections After 40 of 82 Games Played

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Boston Bruins Projections After 30 of 82 Games Played

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Boston Bruins Projections After 20 of 82 Games Played

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Boston Bruins Projections After 10 of 82 Games Played

Boston Bruins Projections Before the Start of the 2015-2016 Season

All career numbers are taken into account in the determination of the projected outcome. In determining projected Corsi for% I average the player’s current Corsi for% with their remaining projected Corsi for%. For S%, I average a player’s current shooting percentage with their remaining S% projection, therefore, the S% typically will not reflect what one would get from dividing the projected goal total from the projected shot total for each player.

Players listed in italics are currently in the AHL with the Providence Bruins. A player that is currently on the injured reserve is reflected by an underline and an “IR” notation in the Games Played column. For players that have yet to play an NHL game with the Bruins this season, I made my best projections based on their career statistics and if they happened to miraculously play in all of the remaining games this season for Boston.

Also, please note that for goaltenders in this chart, I have not determined how to reflect projections accurately- other than basing all numbers on if the goalie played in every game remaining in the season. For a more accurate representation, I anticipate to use similar playing time from the 2014-2015 season to project the 2015-2016 season sometime, however I am in the process of transitioning all goalie stats to another page on this site.

And finally, the numbers for goalies probably won’t always add up right (if you’re analyzing the numbers that much), because again, I haven’t learned how to predict the unpredictable- goalies are weird anyways. Until I figure out how to deal with goaltenders in their own special way, I have a rather generic preview of how they might do.

As I mentioned above, I’m in the process of transitioning Nick’s Net into a page dedicated to goalie stats and projections for every goalie in the NHL, so I might just pull all goalie notes from this page in the near future.

– Nick Lanciani

P.S. For a look at the process, here’s a glimpse of the Excel spreadsheet I work with.

*Corsi% denotes Corsi for%