Down the Frozen River

Tag: Winnipeg Jets

  • 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs Second Round Preview: MassMutual NHL East Division

    2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs Second Round Preview: MassMutual NHL East Division

    Nobody’s perfect.

    Both in First Round prediction outcomes and in trying (and failing) to deliver predictions for each First Round series ahead of time.

    The short excuse is that the overlap of the 2020-21 regular season and the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs made it difficult to finish compiling stats, writing game recaps and subsequently writing previews for each series that hadn’t already started.

    Then it’s a matter of catching up.

    Plus there’s a few other projects being worked on right now that you’ll hopefully get to see soon.

    Granted, there’s a good chance that if you’re reading this it’s because 1) you’re somehow an oddly dedicated fan of my random musings, 2) you’ve accidentally stumbled upon this blog or 3) you’re a potential employer trying to get a read on if this guy is actually desirable.

    Anyway, the First Round of the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs is mostly over as only the Toronto Maple Leafs and Montréal Canadiens have yet to sort out who will be taking on the Winnipeg Jets in the Second Round of Scotia NHL North Division action.

    For now, let’s just keep it simple with the MassMutual NHL East Division on the docket for Saturday and the Discover NHL Central Division and Honda NHL West Division on the calendar for Sunday, then we’ll go from there.

    (3) Boston Bruins (33-16-7, 73 points) vs (4) New York Islanders (32-17-7, 71 points)

    Boston: 56 games played, .652 points percentage, 25 regulation wins.

    N.Y. Islanders: 56 games played, .634 points percentage, 24 regulation wins.

    The Boston Bruins eliminated the Washington Capitals in five games (4-1) in the First Round and are poised to be in command of home ice advantage in their Second Round series matchup with the New York Islanders by virtue of being the higher seed as both MassMutual NHL East Division First Round matchups technically resulted in upset victories by the “underdogs”.

    Sure, Boston has had a bit of recent playoff success riding the momentum of their last four consecutive seasons with at least one playoff series victory and New York improved to 5-1 all time against the Pittsburgh Penguins in a Stanley Cup Playoff series, but that’s besides the point.

    The Bruins won the Presidents’ Trophy in 2019-20, having recorded the league’s best regular season record at the time of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, well, officially being declared a pandemic and cutting last year’s regular season short.

    They entered 2020-21 as favorites to not only lead their division at season’s end, but contend for the Presidents’ Trophy in back-to-back seasons for the first time in franchise history.

    That… didn’t pan out, but it might actually be a benefit to the current roster to not be seen as the clear cut favorites on paper.

    To remind everyone that didn’t read the First Round preview for Boston, the Bruins were led by Brad Marchand (29-40–69 totals in 53 games played) in the regular season, with Patrice Bergeron (23-25–48 totals in 54 games) and David Pastrnak (20-28–48 totals in 48 games) rounding out the top-three scorers on the team.

    Through five games this postseason, the B’s look like they could be on the verge of something special as a plausible last hurrah for their current core with David Krejci and Tuukka Rask set to become unrestricted free agents at season’s end and Father Time™️ eventually going to become a factor and catch up with the ageless wonders that are Bergeron and Marchand.

    It’s likely that Rask will be back for another season or two to serve as a mentor for current backup goaltender, Jeremy Swayman, like how Tim Thomas played that role for the franchise’s all-time winningest goaltender in the regular season and playoffs.

    Or if you’re from outside the Boston market– think like what Pekka Rinne just did for the last two seasons in Nashville as Juuse Saros gradually took over as the starter for the Predators.

    Krejci, on the other hand, has a bit more of a clouded future.

    Bruins president, Cam Neely, told reporters earlier in the week that the organization has shelved talks of extensions with Rask and Krejci for after the postseason (a standard for the industry, especially with an expansion draft looming for the Seattle Kraken), but Neely was open to the idea of the two “one team” players spending their entire NHL careers in Boston.

    That said, there’s always the possibility for retirement for Krejci or that he might go spend a few seasons in Czech Republic while winding down the twilight of his professional playing days.

    None of that is relevant for the here and now, however.

    Right now, the Bruins are focused on getting past the Islanders in the Second Round– a team that’s given them a bit of an inconsistent ride to say the least this season.

    Boston dropped the first five games against New York, but won the last three meetings between the two clubs in the regular season.

    That doesn’t actually say as much as one would think, since the Capitals had more recent success as the season progressed against Boston.

    But then again, Washington did lose.

    It’s also not like the B’s didn’t get better as the season went on– especially since they added Taylor Hall, Curtis Lazar and Mike Reilly ahead of the trade deadline in April.

    Boston has a legitimate top-six forward group and interchangeable components that can get the job done in the bottom-six, as well as a defense that has a mix of youth and experience– sans Kevan Miller for Game 1, at least, as Miller is out with an upper body injury, though Jarred Tinordi did fine for a bottom-pairing role in Game 5 against Washington.

    Rask’s save percentage has gone up in each of his first five postseason games so far.

    Through five games in the 2021 postseason, Pastrnak leads the team in scoring with six points (two goals, four assists), while bona fide stallion , Charlie McAvoy, has five assists and Bergeron (3-1–4 totals in five games) round out the top-three in postseason production thus far.

    In the regular season, Rask led the way in the crease for the B’s with a 15-5-2 record in 24 games (24 starts), a 2.28 goals-against average and a .913 save percentage, as well as a pair of shutouts in that span.

    Jaroslav Halak started the season as Boston’s backup, but ended it as the third string netminder with a 9-6-4 record in 19 games (17 starts) for the Bruins with a 2.53 goals-against average, .905 save percentage and two shutouts in 2020-21.

    Swayman emerged as Rask and Halak spent time out of the lineup due to injury, as well as an extended stay in COVID protocol for the latter goaltender (perhaps affecting Halak’s performance as a result).

    But before Swayman amassed a 7-3-0 record in 10 games (10 starts), as well as a 1.50 goals-against average, a .945 save percentage and two shutouts, Dan Vladar made five appearances (all starts) and earned a 2-2-2-1 record to go along with a 3.40 goals-against average and an .886 save percentage.

    Don’t let Vladar’s numbers fool you, however, as one desperate start on the second night of a back-to-back against the Capitals sank otherwise decent stats for the projected backup to Swayman someday on Boston’s depth chart.

    In the postseason, Rask has put up a 4-1 record in five games with a 1.81 goals-against average and a .941 save percentage.

    So in other words, it’s midseason form for No. 40 for the black and gold.

    Gerry Cheevers has faith in Rask.

    At the other end of the rink, the Islanders utilized head coach, Barry Trotz’s, patented trap to stupefy Pittsburgh’s potent offense in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, while also appearing to not really have to do that much to beat Tristan Jarry in the crease in six games (4-2).

    This time we mean it. Nassau Live at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum is on its last legs.

    Next season, the Isles will be opening up their new home at UBS Arena in Elmont, New York– making the “long” trek from Uniondale, New York to their new address.

    Both TD Garden and the Coliseum are expected to have near full capacity crowds for the entirety of the series, so if you already couldn’t stand Boston and Long Island enough for some reason, expect the crowds to be as loud and as obnoxious as ever.

    That said, we could all use a good laugh and some release from the last year and a half of pain, grief and suffering. Hopefully the cheers and jeers do not veer into the distasteful.

    It is, after all, just a game.

    Anyway, the Islanders were led by Mathew Barzal (17-28–45 totals in 55 games) this season, while Josh Bailey (8-27–35 totals in 54 games), Brock Nelson (18-15–33 totals in 56 games) and Jordan Eberle (16-17–33 totals in 56 games) rounded out the top-three in team scoring in 2020-21.

    In the crease, Semyon Varlamov led the way with a 19-11-4 record in 36 games (35 starts), as well as a 2.04 goals-against average, a .929 save percentage and seven shutouts in the regular season.

    Ilya Sorokin was the backup netminder for New York and amassed a 13-6-3 record in 22 games (21 starts) and had a 2.17 goals-against average, a .918 save percentage and three shutouts in the process.

    Through six postseason games, Anthony Beauvillier (3-4–7 totals) and Jean-Gabriel Pageau (1-6–7 totals) are tied for the team lead in playoff scoring, while Bailey and Nelson rank tied for third on the roster with six points (three goals, three assists for each player).

    Varlamov’s gone 0-2 in two games (two starts) and has a 3.61 goals-against average, as well as a .903 save percentage, while Sorokin has taken over with the hot hands in net– amassing a 4-0 record in four games (four starts) and an equally impressive goal against average (1.95) and save percentage (.943) as Rask’s numbers for Boston thus far in the playoffs.

    Meanwhile, Isles captain Anders Lee remains out of the lineup with a lower body injury that ended his season after 27 games in 2020-21.

    These two teams are meeting for the third time in a series, with the Islanders holding a 2-0 all time record, having defeated the Bruins in five games (4-1) in the 1980 Quarterfinal and in six games (4-2) in the 1983 Wales Conference Final.

    Both times that New York defeated Boston, the Isles went on to win the Stanley Cup.

    In the 2020-21 regular season, however, the Bruins went 3-3-2 in eight games against New York, while the Islanders went 5-2-1 against Boston.

    New York outscored Boston, 21-18, in that span, though the Bruins held the advantage in total shots on goal over the course of their regular season series, 269-216.

    Stellar goaltending has been a constant for both teams, outside of the odd, 7-2, win for the Islanders on Feb. 25th against the B’s.

    The Bruins have Hall, the Islanders have Kyle Palmieri.

    Depth scoring is paramount, especially if New York’s trap can get to Boston’s first line as effective as they were against Pittsburgh’s first line.

    Bruins head coach, Bruce Cassidy, is a dynamic coach, however, while Trotz might continue to go back to the well even if it’s starting to run dry– simply out of the comfort and ease of familiarity.

    This series has all the makings of being a long, grueling battle that could see Boston victorious over the Islanders for the first time in the postseason in seven games when all is said and done.

    Regular season outcomes:

    1-0 NYI at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on Jan. 18th

    4-2 NYI at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on Feb. 13th

    7-2 NYI at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on Feb. 25th

    2-1 F/SO NYI at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on March 9th

    4-3 F/OT NYI at TD Garden on March 25th

    4-1 BOS at TD Garden on April 15th

    3-0 BOS at TD Garden on April 16th

    3-2 F/OT BOS at TD Garden on May 10th

    Schedule:

    5/29- Game 1 NYI @ BOS 8 PM ET on NBC, SN360, TVAS2

    5/31- Game 2 NYI @ BOS 7:30 PM ET on NBCSN, SN1, TVAS

    Games 3 and 4, as well as 5 through 7 (if necessary) have yet to be announced by the league at the time of this writing.

  • Winnipeg Sweep The Oilers With 3OT Winner

    Winnipeg Sweep The Oilers With 3OT Winner

    After a night of triple overtime, the Winnipeg Jets secured their tickets to the next round defeating the Edmonton Oilers 4-3. Kyle Connor sent the Oilers packing with his second goal of the postseason. The Edmonton Oilers and Winnipeg Jets saw overtime 3 out of 4 times this series. Two of those games being played back to back. 

    It was a late night regardless of the coast you were on. We were tired just watching from the comfort of our own homes. I can’t imagine actually playing in a 4 hour and nineteen minute hockey game. 

    Darnell Nurse broke Chris Pronger’s TOI record with a whopping 62:07. If you remember last postseason, Seth Jones of the Columbus Blue Jackets played 65:06 in that 5OT game against Tampa Bay. Nurse is now 9th all-time in TOI. Seth Jones remains number one. 

    Josh Morrisey led the Jets in TOI behind Connor Hellbuyck with 41:52 minutes. 

     The Oilers looked to avoid elimination It started with the Oilers announcing Mike Smith would start. It appeared that would wrap up the series and Winnipeg would skate away with their brooms out. Edmonton was not going down without a fight. It appeared we saw a different Oilers team through regulation. While there were plenty of missed calls on Connor McDavid, the team seemed to be playing a more physical game. This might come to a surprise to you, but your superstar cannot be the only one pulling the weight. Secondary scoring appeared to be there but it wasn’t enough to stay alive.

    The first 20 was welcomed by three goals. Unlike the other North Division game, the special teams showed up to play. Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele, who missed last year’s postseason due to an unfortunate in-game injury in game 1 against Calgary, got the Jets on the board with a power play goal. Oilers Captain Connor McDavid looked nothing shy of dejected after last night’s loss. A new day and a new game means another chance to stay in it. McDavid found his playoff stride, earning Edmonton’s first goal of the night. The game was not knotted at one for long. Mason Appleton earned his first career playoff goal, giving the Jets the lead as they wrapped up the first period. 

    It was a two goal period for the Oilers as they earned their first lead of the night. 2011 first overall pick Ryan Nugent Hopkins tied it back up, 3 minutes into the second frame. RNH had 16 goals in 52 games. The Jets’ penalty kill could not stop Alex Chiasson from cleaning up a loose puck in front of the net. The Oilers had a one goal lead and a little bit of confidence before they were down to the final buzzer.

    Scheifele tied it up at 3 with an absolute snipe from where his first goal was scored from. The cameras panned to McDavid on the bench and his face said it all. You’ve got to feel bad for him. He’s the greatest hockey player of all time trapped on a team that can’t win. The biggest travesty in hockey history would be not seeing him lift the cup in his playing career. Amidst the frustration of a tied game in the third period, Blake Wheeler got a puck to the groin. He was doubled over in pain as he raced right to the room. He would return to the bench for overtime.

    Triple overtime. That’s what it took to settle the score. 

    You have to give both goaltenders credit. They’d both stood on their head through the series and were now trapped in another overtime game. Mike Smith is no spring chicken at the age of 39. Edmonton’s defense was playing peak a boo at times but he still held down the fort for as long as he could. Connor Hellebuyck was nothing shy of his Veznia Trophy winning self. He had a .950SV% through the series.

    The Jets can sit back and recover while they wait to see who their opponent will be. Will it be the Toronto Maple Leafs who haven’t seen the second round since 2004 or the slow and uncertain about everything Montreal Canadiens?

  • The Jets Touch Down in Overtime to Secure a 3-0 Lead Over Oilers

    The Jets Touch Down in Overtime to Secure a 3-0 Lead Over Oilers

    The Winnipeg Jets are one step close to moving on as they beat the Edmonton Oilers 5-4 in overtime. Nikolaj Ehlers’ made his return to the Jets’ lineup in the best way possible. The game-winner belonged to him. The Oilers’ goaltending crumbled in true Oilers fashion, letting go of a 4-1 lead.

    McDavid had a 3 point game with just assists. The Captain was goalless once again. Leon Draisaitl was responsible for the first 2 Oilers’ goals as he earned his first goal of the postseason six and a half minutes into it. Less than three minutes later, he earned the second of his night. The Jets were woken up in the second period with Ehlers’ first goal of the night.  Ehlers’ made his return to the Winnipeg lineup and let it be known. This would not be enough for the Jets to take off as Zack Kassian scored about a minute later. It wasn’t until the third period where the Jets fired up their engines. After Jujuhar Kharia scored Edmonton’s fourth and final of the night, the Jets were ready for take off. Mathieu Perrault, Blake Wheeler, and Josh Morrisey responded and stopped Edmonton right in their tracks.

    Nothing will ever go down smoothly for Connor McDavid. I can only imagine the phone calls made after the game went to overtime and then after Ehlers scored his second goal of the night, giving the Jets a 3-0 series lead. The Jets have a chance to advance tomorrow night. Will Mike Smith start between the pipes or will Mikko Koskinen make an appearance in an attempt to keep the Oilers a float? 

    The Oilers outshot the Jets 48-37 but failed to succeed in faceoffs, getting demolished 63- 37% at the dot. Special teams rose to the occasion with 2 goals on the Jets’ powerplay and 1 goal for the Oilers. 

    There is a lot at stake for the Oilers and I don’t think it’s just the series. Tomorrow night the team makes a last ditch effort to save themselves from this healthy Jets team.

  • McDavid Silenced for a Second Game in a Row as Winnipeg Jets Take 2 Game Lead

    McDavid Silenced for a Second Game in a Row as Winnipeg Jets Take 2 Game Lead

    Paul Stastny gave the Winnipeg Jets a 2-0 series lead with an overtime goal against the Edmonton Oilers. Connor McDavid was silenced again as the Oilers could not get anything by Connor Hellebuyck who earned his third career postseason shutout.
    Pierre-Luc Dubious returned to the lineup in game 2. The forward played a total of 13:05 minutes in his first postseason game with the Jets.  The teams were hanging together through sixty. Mike Smith was in rare form for the Oilers making 35 saves. Hellebuyck stopped 38 shots faced. The Oilers won 57% of the faceoffs. Both teams were successful in killing their respective penalties. 

    McDavid has 0 points through two games. That’s not something you would expect from someone who had 105 points through 56 games. Is Winnipeg his Kryptonite? He had 22 points against the Jets during the regular season. The healthy Jets team is actually a threat to the North Division. Last season the team was all banged up and without their star players, losing to the Calgary Flames in the play-in series. Paul Maurice said that Nikolaj Ehlers could play on Sunday. Ehlers missed the end of the season with a lower-body injury.

  • Winnipeg Jets Dominate Edmonton Oilers in Series Opener

    Winnipeg Jets Dominate Edmonton Oilers in Series Opener

    The Winnipeg Jets and Edmonton Oilers kicked off the Scotia NHL North Division’s postseason Wednesday night. No overtime was needed here as the Jets crushed the Oilers, 4-1 after sixty.

    The Jets were without Pierre-Luc Dubois ( 8 goals, 12 assists ) and Nikolaj Ehlers ( 21 goals, 25 assists ) for game one. PLD missed the final game of the season with an undisclosed injury. Ehlers has been sidelined since mid April due to an upper body injury.

    The offense would not skip a beat without the pair, scoring 4 goals on the Oilers in sixty minutes.

    Jesse Puljujarvi opened up the the battle, scoring the only Oilers goal of the evening. Puljujarvi had 15 goals and 10 assists through 55 games.

    Tucker Poolman tied it in the first period and the offense was grounded until the final 20. Dominic Toninato had the go ahead goal and from there, the Jets took off. Kyle Connor and Blake Wheeler both had empty net goals, cementing the first win of the series.

    2021 Art Ross Trophy Winner, Connor McDavid did not have a single point. This isn’t a cause for concern because he could turn around and have a five point game. This Oilers team is different from the ones we’ve seen in years past. McDavid isn’t carrying this team by himself. If he does have a quiet night, you can count on players like Tyson Barrie to push the puck toward the net.

    Comparing the Oilers’ goaltending to Winnipeg’s seems a bit like comparing apples and oranges. While Mike Smith is not the same Mike Smith from the past, he is certainly not Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck.

    The pair face off again on Friday where Edmonton looks to even the series. Will PLD and Ehlers return to the lineup or will Paul Maurice keep the winning lineup the way it is?

  • Smith lifts Bruins over Capitals, 3-2, in double OT

    Smith lifts Bruins over Capitals, 3-2, in double OT

    Craig Smith caught Ilya Samsonov mishandling the puck and wrapped around the net to give the Boston Bruins a 2-1 series lead in their, 3-2, double overtime victory over the Washington Capitals in Game 3 of their 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs First Round matchup on Wednesday at TD Garden.

    Tuukka Rask (2-1, 2.27 goals-against average, .926 save percentage in three games played) made 35 saves on 37 shots faced in what became the 12th consecutive postseason game between the two clubs to be decided by one-goal.

    Oh and the Bruins had not led all night until the final result.

    Samsonov (0-1, 2.09 goals-against average, .930 save percentage in one game played), meanwhile, turned aside 40 out of 43 shots against in the loss for the Capitals.

    Boston was without the services of Ondrej Kase (upper body), John Moore (hip) and Jeremy Lauzon (upper body) on Wednesday.

    Bruins head coach, Bruce Cassidy, made no changes to his lineup from Monday night’s, 4-3, overtime win in Game 2 to Wednesday night’s Game 3.

    The B’s had a long list of healthy scratches, taxi squad members and injured players including, Nick Wolff, Trent Frederic, Greg McKegg, Zach Senyshyn, Jack Studnicka, Moore, Kase, Jaroslav Halak, Steven Kampfer, Cameron Hughes, Jack Ahcan, Lauzon, Urho Vaakanainen, Oskar Steen, Jakub Zboril, Callum Booth, Dan Vladar, Anton Blidh, Karson Kuhlman and Jarred Tinordi on Wednesday.

    At the other end of the rink, Evgeny Kuznetsov returned to the lineup for Washington, while Samsonov made his Stanley Cup Playoffs debut in the crease.

    Craig Anderson did not get the start in Game 3 due to “body maintenance” according to Capitals head coach, Peter Laviolette, while Lars Eller (lower body) missed Wednesday night’s action.

    The Caps became the second team in Stanley Cup Playoff history to start three different goaltenders in the team’s first three postseason games, joining the 1986 Winnipeg Jets in doing so.

    Alex Ovechkin was penalized for interference at 2:20 of the first period and presented Boston with the first power play of the night.

    The B’s did not capitalize on the ensuing skater advantage, however, and followed suit with a pair of penalties of their one– Mike Reilly for high sticking at 7:38, as well as a bench minor for too many skaters on the ice at 10:34– shortly after killing off Reilly’s infraction.

    Nick Ritchie served the bench minor as the Capitals failed to muster anything on back-to-back power plays.

    Washington defender, Zdeno Chara, caught former teammate in Boston, Charlie Coyle, with a slash while the two battled for a puck in the corner of the Bruins’ attacking zone, yielding a power play for the B’s at 13:18.

    Boston’s skater advantage soon became a 5-on-3 advantage as John Carlson sent the puck clear over the glass and induced an automatic delay of game minor at 14:24.

    The Bruins weren’t able to convert on the two-skater advantage.

    Finally, late in the opening frame, Sean Kuraly tripped Ovechkin and the Bruins were forced to kill off a minor infraction at 17:25.

    Heading into the first intermission, the score was still tied, 0-0, despite Boston outshooting Washington, 10-4.

    The Capitals dominated in just about everything else, leading in blocked shots (6-3), takeaways (4-2), giveaways (5-4) and hits (13-12), while both teams managed to split faceoff win percentage in the first period, 50-50.

    Both clubs were 0/3 on the power play entering the middle frame.

    Early in the second period, Nic Dowd blocked a shot from David Pastrnak and briefly went down the tunnel after hardly putting any weight on one of his legs.

    Dowd would return later in the period and, of course, score a goal, but first Brad Marchand took an unsportsmanlike minor at 6:56 of the second period, presenting the Capitals with another skater advantage opportunity.

    Late in the ensuing power play, Washington worked the puck deep into the attacking zone while Ovechkin (1) snuck into the slot, received a pass and fired a one-timer far on the glove side and just under the crossbar.

    Anthony Mantha (2) had the only assist on Ovechkin’s power-play goal at 8:21 of the second period and Washington jumped ahead, 1-0, in Game 3.

    Less than a minute later, however, the Bruins responded as Smith setup Taylor Hall with a behind the back pass to No. 71 in black and gold as Hall (2) spun around counterclockwise in front of the crease, pulled the puck from his backhand to his forehand and roofed a shout over the blocker, top-shelf.

    Smith (2) and Kevan Miller (1) tallied the assists as Hall tied the game, 1-1, at 9:17.

    Late in the period, Matt Grzelcyk caught Ovechkin with a high stick behind the Boston net and presented Washington with another power play at 15:45.

    Shortly after killing Grzelcyk’s minor, the Bruins were caught in the vulnerable minute on a giveaway while botching an exit out of their own zone.

    Garnet Hathaway fed Dowd with a shot pass under Reilly’s leg while the Bruins defender dove to breakup the passing lane that Dowd (2) redirected while crashing the slot to put the Capitals back in command, 2-1, at 18:15 of the second period.

    Hathaway (1) had the only assist on the effort.

    Through 40 minutes of action on Wednesday, the Caps led the B’s, 2-1, on the scoreboard despite Boston outshooting Washington, 21-20, in total shots on goal.

    The Capitals, however, outshot the Bruins, 16-11, in the second period alone and led in blocked shots (9-6), takeaways (7-6) and hits (32-28), while Boston held the advantage in giveaways (8-7).

    Washington was 1/5 on the power play, while the B’s were still 0/3 on the skater advantage heading into the final frame of regulation.

    Daniel Carr tripped Coyle at 3:25 of the third period, but the Bruins couldn’t get anything going on the resulting power play.

    Boston had another chance on the skater advantage when Dowd caught Charlie McAvoy with a high stick at 11:00 of the final frame of regulation and this time the B’s capitalized on the power play.

    Marchand (2) batted the puck out of mid-air off of a deflection from Patrice Bergeron that can best be described as a flubbed shot and/or a whiff.

    Anyway, Bergeron (1) and McAvoy (2) had the assists on Marchand’s power-play goal as the Bruins tied the action, 2-2, despite lacking a sustained offensive effort in the third period.

    Through 60 minutes, the score remained even, 2-2, despite Washington outshooting Boston, 29-24, including a, 9-3, advantage in the third period alone.

    The Capitals led in blocked shots (15-9), takeaways (12-8), hits (46-42) and faceoff win% (53-47), while the B’s led in giveaways (11-8).

    Both teams were 1/5 on the power play heading into the first overtime period.

    The refs had put their whistles away in the initial extra frame, yielding end-to-end action with more clutching and grabbing allowed as the two clubs swapped chances– though the Bruins dominated possession and shots on goal in the overtime alone.

    Laviolette started Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson, Mantha, Dmitry Orlov and Carlson, while Cassidy countered with David Krejci, Smith, Hall, Reilly and Brandon Carlo at the opening draw in the extra frame.

    After 80 minutes of high intensity skating, the Bruins and Capitals were still tied, 2-2, on the scoreboard, despite Boston holding the advantage in shots on goal, 41-34, including a, 17-5, advantage in the first overtime period alone.

    Washington led in blocked shots (19-12), takeaways (15-11) and faceoff win% (52-48) through four peirods, while the B’s led in giveaways (12-9) and hits (58-55).

    Both teams were still 1/5 on the power play heading into the second overtime period.

    At the dawn of double overtime, Laviolette and Cassidy started the same lines that they had thrown out on the ice to kickoff the first overtime.

    Backstrom, Wilson and Mantha were countered by Krejci, Hall and Smith.

    On defense, Laviolette offered Brenden Dillon and Justin Schultz, while Cassidy tossed out Reilly and Carlo once more.

    Marchand nearly ended it, then Pastrnak had a breakaway, but misfired as he took a stick to the midsection, then crashed into the endboards and was slow to get up.

    He did not miss a shift, though, and no penalty was called.

    Moments later, Samsonov misplayed the puck in the trapezoid assuming one of his defenders might scoop it up right as Smith never gave up on the play, however.

    Smith (1) wrapped the rubber biscuit around the net and slid it behind the Caps netminder for the game-winning goal at 5:48 of the second overtime period.

    The individual effort was unassisted and provided Boston with a 2-1 series lead thanks to their, 3-2, double overtime victory in Game 3 on Wednesday.

    Yes, even after reaching double overtime, the game still managed to end before midnight thanks to a 6:30 p.m. ET start.

    The Bruins finished the night leading in shots on goal, 43-37, despite being outshot, 3-2, in the second overtime itself.

    Washington wrapped up the action leading in blocked shots (20-14) and faceoff win% (52-48), while Boston led in giveaways (12-10) and hits (60-57).

    The two each clubs finished 1/5 on the power play.

    The Bruins improved to 2-1 when tied after the first period, 1-1 when allowing the game’s first goal, 1-0 when trailing after two periods, 2-1 when tied after three periods and 1-0 when tied after the first overtime in this postseason.

    The Capitals, meanwhile, dropped to 1-2 when tied after one, 1-1 when scoring the game’s first goal, 0-1 when leading after two, 1-2 when tied after three and 0-1 when tied after the first overtime in the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

    Boston leads the series 2-1 with the chance to take a commanding 3-1 series lead in Game 4 on Friday night on home ice.

    Puck drop at TD Garden is expected a little after 6:30 p.m. ET and viewers in the United States can tune to NBCSN for national coverage, while those in Canada have the option to choose from SN360, SNE, SNO, SNP or TVAS depending on where you live.

  • Columbus Blue Jackets 2020-21 Forecast and 20-Game Update

    Columbus Blue Jackets 2020-21 Forecast and 20-Game Update

    Welcome back to another exciting rendition of “let’s trust the guy with a degree in communication to do some basic math stuff”.

    As you are hopefully already aware, I kept the 2019-20 forecasts under wraps simply because I didn’t have the time and/or motivation to write up an explanation for each and every one of them.

    Even still, I’m “behind” on 2020-21 posts given that the Columbus Blue Jackets have already reached the 20-game mark of the season.

    That’s why we’re looking at both what the expectations were coming into the condensed 56-game schedule, as well as how things are holding up after the first, well, almost half the season.

    If you’re a fan of numbers and things, you probably already read about this “catch-up format” in my first forecast for the Boston Bruins roster entering 2020-21. If you’re just a Blue Jackets fan, I’ve done my best to paraphrase my own writing, but you can go back and read it if you feel inclined.

    As always, keep in mind that my degree is in communication and my minor was in sport management. My Intro to Stats class only fulfilled the math portion of my “general education” and met once-a-week at night for two-and-a-half hours in the fall 2013 semester.

    I actually learned how to use the forecast function in Microsoft Excel in one of my sport management classes. Besides that, I got a “C” in that Intro to Stats class, so my credentials for doing this seem promising, right?

    First year players are impossible to predict until they’ve had at least one National Hockey League game under their belt.

    Young players that have had minimal NHL experience may also reflect “inflated” results– Liam Foudy’s forecasted assists entering the 2020-21 season has been highlighted for this reason.

    Entering this season, he had only been part of two career NHL games and had one assist in that span. The forecasting function accounts for a player’s entire career and does some mathematics to come up with something over a predetermined number of games for the upcoming season (in this year’s case, 56).

    In other words, Foudy’s forecast after 20 team games played should look a bit more “realistic”, for the lack of a better term.

    A forecast is not the same as predicting pace.

    Foudy has three assists in 12 games played in 2020-21, for example, and is forecasted to finish with about 11 on the season, whereas he is currently on pace for about eight helpers.

    There are numerous variables that can, and will, impact a players’ performance throughout the year, including injuries, being a healthy scratch (or on the taxi squad), other American Hockey League related or waiver related transactions, sickness, COVID protocol, suspensions and general superstitions related to individual routines, beliefs, etc. (getting enough sleep before a game, wearing a certain lucky tie, using the same undershirt or shoulder pads for the last 13 years or whatever).

    Players can get “hot” or “cold” at any point.

    It’s not something that can be accounted for in a numerical forecast that sets aside the “eye test” until you try to figure out the nuances of how or why a player is playing the way they are playing.

    In a perfect timeline, this forecast pretends nothing bad could ever happen and every Blue Jackets player lives up to their expectations. In reality, some will pan out, some will exceed expectations and some will fall short for whatever reason.

    It’s an educated guess for an outcome in a sport that’s highly unpredictable due to its collectivistic nature and sheer puck luck.

    Columbus Blue Jackets Forecast Through 0 Games (56 Games Remaining)

    First up, let’s take a look at how things were expected to go coming into the 2020-21 season.

    Prior to being traded to the Winnipeg Jets for Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic, Dubois was forecasted to lead Columbus in scoring with 16-22–38 totals this season.

    New acquisition, Max Domi, was forecasted as a close second to Dubois with 37 points– leading the team in assists in the process with 25 (among NHL regulars last season, since Foudy technically was forecasted to lead in assists among Blue Jackets with 28).

    Of course, Dubois was traded and Laine and Roslovic are off to hot starts with Columbus– scoring goals in bunches when they find the scoresheet, it seems. We’ll get to that in a minute.

    Cam Atkinson was forecasted to score 19 goals prior to the start of the 2020-21 season, which leads Dubois’ 16 forecasted goals and Gustav Nyquist’s 14 forecasted goals on the roster.

    Dubois, of course, was traded and Nyquist is out due to injury for most of this season, so… that checks out.

    On defense, Zach Werenski and Seth Jones were expected to continue to lead with the way with 33 and 27 points, respectively, from the blue line.

    Both defenders are expected to amass 21 assists this season– good enough for the third most forecasted among Blue Jackets skaters entering this season.

    In the crease, John Tortorella will have to find the right balance between Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins.

    There’s potential for a really solid goaltending duo in Columbus if Korpisalo is the starter and can best his 2.66 forecasted goals against average, as well as his forecasted .911 save percentage, while Merzlikins manages to find a way to reach his 2.35 forecasted GAA and .923 forecasted SV%.

    Of course, after 20 team games played, Merzlikins is currently out with an upper body injury, so time will tell if he can return to form.

    Columbus Blue Jackets Forecast Through 20 Games (36 Games Remaining)

    Through 20 games of the 2020-21 season, the Blue Jackets are three points outside of the last playoff spot in the Discover NHL Central Division, trailing the Chicago Blackhawks for this season’s 4th place cutoff line.

    The acquisition of Laine and Roslovic have been quite a welcome sight for Columbus fans, though consistency from the rest of the lineup remains to be an issue.

    Laine, however, is currently forecasted to lead the team in goals (26) and points (46), while Roslovic is on track for 10-17–27 totals, which is about what he had in 71 games with the Jets last season (29 points).

    Using the current forecasted totals, Roslovic is on track for about .551 points per game this season. He had .408 points per game with Winnipeg in 2019-20.

    Atkinson remains in the top-three in scoring, trailing Laine in goals and points with 20 forecasted goals and 39 forecasted points, respectively, while Oliver Bjorkstrand is currently forecasted to amass 15-21–36 totals (the third most on the current roster).

    On the blue line, Jones leads the way among defenders in points (32), as well as all skaters in assists with 27 forecasted assists through 20 team games played in the 2020-21 season.

    Werenski is more in line with what you’d expect from a young defender of his caliber (8-16–24 forecasted totals) and has missed time due to injury, so that’s clearly a factor in his forecasted drop from before the season began to now.

    In the crease, Korpisalo is sure to get more starts than Merzlikins as the latter is currently injured.

    Korpisalo’s current forecast yields a goals against average between 2.59-2.63, while Merzlikins is on track for a 2.29-2.33 in however many games he ends up getting.

    Why the range in GAA?

    That’s new for this season.

    It’s just to show a range between what the forecasted total is according to the model and what the adjusted forecast shows (calculated based on the forecasted goals allowed/forecasted minutes multiplied by 60, as one would traditionally do with goals allowed/minutes played multiplied by 60 to determine GAA).

    I’m no statistician and I felt like there might be a way to try to get a better read on how things are going for goaltenders (with or without enough necessary data to yield a “realistic” result).

    Don’t make any bets using only this forecast. If you’re a professional, you probably already know that.

    Anyway, Korpisalo has a forecasted range between .912 and .913 in save percentage through 20 team games played and Merzlikins is on track for between a .923 and a .924 in SV%.

    Again, a similar principle applies here.

    One end of the range is the straight up forecast, while the other is influenced by forecasted saves/forecasted shots against.

    Well, that does it for this forecast. Tune in after 40 team games played to see how things might go down the stretch (the final 16 games this season).

  • DTFR Podcast #218- Warning Sign

    DTFR Podcast #218- Warning Sign

    The NWHL’s Lake Placid “bubble” burst as the global COVID-19 pandemic continues, postponing the 2021 Isobel Cup Playoffs indefinitely, while the NHL faces an ongoing outbreak across the league, including at least 12 of its teams. Also the ethics of opening mail that isn’t yours is discussed after a New Jersey man received sticks intended for Washington Capitals defender, Zdeno Chara, delivered by mistake.

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  • Bruins score five unanswered in, 5-3, comeback over Capitals

    Bruins score five unanswered in, 5-3, comeback over Capitals

    For the second game in a row, the Boston Bruins got themselves out of a, 3-0, deficit only this time they just kept scoring and beat the Washington Capitals, 5-3, in regulation at Capital One Arena Monday night.

    David Pastrnak recorded a pair of goals and the B’s notched five unanswered– including four goals in the third period alone– en route to the victory.

    Bruins goaltender, Jaroslav Halak (3-0-1, 1.72 goals against average, .923 save percentage in four games played), made 23 saves on 26 shots faced for an .885 SV% in the win.

    Meanwhile, Capitals netminder, Vitek Vanecek (5-1-2, 2.94 GAA, .913 SV% in eight games played), stopped 28 out of 32 shots against for an .875 SV% in the loss.

    Boston improved to 6-1-2 (14 points) on the season and remains in command of 3rd place in the MassMutual East Division, while Washington fell to 6-1-3 (15 points) overall and bounced out of their top spot for the division lead by the Philadelphia Flyers.

    The Capitals are now 2nd by virtue of having one fewer regulation win than the Flyers. Washington has four this season, while Philadelphia has five.

    The Bruins were without the services of Ondrej Kase (upper body), Matt Grzelcyk (lower body) and Jake DeBrusk (lower body) on Monday, while Greg McKegg, Jack Studnicka, Par Lindholm, John Moore, Urho Vaakanainen, Callum Booth and Dan Vladar all remained as healthy scratches and/or listed on Boston’s taxi squad.

    B’s head coach, Bruce Cassidy, juggled his right wings from Saturday night’s, 4-3, loss in overtime to the Capitals to Monday night’s action– moving Craig Smith to the David Krejci’s right side on the second line and Chris Wagner to Charlie Coyle’s right side on the third line, while demoting Karson Kuhlman to the right side of the fourth line.

    Cassidy made no other adjustments to his lineup.

    Almost midway into the first frame, Bruins defender, Kevan Miller, was penalized for interference, yielding the game’s first power play opportunity to the Capitals at 8:18 of the first period.

    Washington did not convert on the ensuing skater advantage, however.

    Moments later, the Capitals thought they had taken advantage of a momentum swing thanks to their successful penalty kill when it appeared that a shot from John Carlson had eyes and was redirected by Carl Hagelin into the twine behind Halak at 11:41, but Boston used their coach’s challenge on the grounds that the play entering the zone was offside.

    After review, it was determined that Garnet Hathaway entered the offensive zone offside while the puck was mid-air at the blue line.

    It was not in Hathaway’s immediate possession, as Miller had forced the puck to take flight on a poke check.

    Had the Boston defender not gotten his stick on the puck, it’s likely the goal wouldn’t have been overturned as a result of an impressive move by the Washington forward in accordance with the new interpretation of “breaking the plane”.

    Then again, who knows? What’s a catch, anyway?

    Hagelin’s goal being discredited did not deter the Washington attack.

    A couple minutes later, the Capitals won a faceoff in the offensive zone, worked the puck back to former Bruin defender, Zdeno Chara, and let the 6-foot-9 blue line wind up for one of his patented slap shots from the point.

    Chara (2) sent a rocket low on Halak’s blocker side into the back of the net and gave the Caps the first official goal of the night at 13:26 of the first period.

    Washington led, 1-0.

    Hathaway (2) and Nic Dowd (2) had the assists.

    It was Chara’s first goal against Boston since April 11, 2006, when he was then a member of the Ottawa Senators and scored two goals– including the game-winner– in a, 4-3, overtime victory for the Sens.

    The Capitals grabbed a two-goal lead 11 seconds after Chara kicked off the night’s scoring when Daniel Sprong (2) worked his way in close and fired a shot through Halak’s five-hole.

    Jakub Vrana (4) and Nick Jensen (2) tallied the assists on Sprong’s goal and Washington led, 2-0, at 13:37.

    Late in the period, Jakub Zboril delivered a swift cross check to T.J. Oshie and promptly received a minor infraction at 18:23.

    Washington’s power play would extend into the middle frame, but yield no change in the scoreboard.

    After one period of play, the Capitals led, 2-0, on the scoreboard and, 15-8, in shots on goal.

    The Caps also held the advantage in blocked shots (4-3), giveaways (4-0), hits (9-8) and faceoff win percentage (61-39).

    Both teams had two takeaways aside, while Washington was 0/2 on the power play (Boston had yet to see time on the skater advantage).

    Oshie kicked off the middle frame with a holding penalty against Zboril– presenting the Bruins with their first taste of power play action at 3:07 of the second period.

    About a minute later, Hathaway cut a rut to the penalty box on an automatic delay of game minor for clearing the puck over the glass at 4:09.

    Boston had a 5-on-3 advantage for 58 seconds, but didn’t muster anything on the scoreboard in what was a failed power play operation.

    Shortly after killing off both infractions, Washington went on the power play after Jeremy Lauzon hooked Tom Wilson at 7:19.

    About a minute later, Carlson and Vrana setup a give-and-go through Wagner’s legs back to Carlson (4) whereby the Capitals defender waltzed into the slot before dragging and snapping a shot over Halak’s blocker side for a power-play goal.

    Vrana (5) had the only assist on Carlson’s goal as Washington took a, 3-0, lead at 8:35 of the second period.

    Less than a minute later, Boston couldn’t stop their bad habits as Krejci caught Trevor van Riemsdyk without the puck and received an interference minor at 9:03.

    Washington did not convert on the ensuing power play, however.

    Midway through the middle frame, the Bruins won a faceoff in the offensive zone before working the puck to Brad Marchand as Pastrnak setup in the bumper position.

    Marchand fed Pastrnak (1) for the one-timer goal while Patrice Bergeron screened the Washington netminder to cut the Caps’ lead to two-goals.

    Marchand (7) and Brandon Carlo (1) tabbed the assists on Pastrnak’s first goal of the season as the Bruins trailed, 3-1, at 12:37 of the second period.

    Dowd promptly tripped Pastrnak at 13:51 and presented the B’s with a skater advantage, but Boston’s power play was powerless on Monday– despite getting creative at one point and utilizing a special teams unit comprised of only forwards.

    Through 40 minutes of action in D.C., the Capitals led, 3-1, on the scoreboard and, 20-17, in shots on goal, despite Boston leading in second period shots alone, 9-5.

    Washington also maintained the advantage in blocked shots (10-7), takeaways (5-3) and giveaways (7-0), while Boston led in hits (17-14).

    The two clubs were 50-50 in faceoff win% after two periods.

    Meanwhile, the Caps were 1/4 on the power play, while Boston was 0/3 on the night on the skater advantage.

    Early in the final frame, the Bruins won an attacking zone faceoff whereby Boston’s defense worked the puck to Pastrnak for a quick wraparound from the dot to the circle on Vanecek’s right side before Pastrnak (2) unloaded a shot past the Washington goalie’s low blocker side.

    The Bruins trailed by one as Zboril (2) and Charlie McAvoy (7) tallied the assists on Pastrnak’s second goal of the night.

    Washington barely held onto a, 3-2, lead at 6:08 of the third period with more than enough time for the inevitable comeback.

    Almost midway in the third, Trent Frederic and Wilson exchanged fisticuffs at 8:49, yielding fighting majors in what was a considerably favorable tradeoff for Boston.

    Sure, the Bruins first year forward would miss at least the next five minutes, but Washington’s power-forward scorer in Wilson would also be off of the ice too.

    The fight was just the second of Frederic’s young National Hockey League career (with his first coming back on Jan. 29, 2019, in his NHL debut against Brandon Tanev and the Winnipeg Jets), as well as just the second fight this season for Boston (previous, Kevan Miller vs. Miles Wood on Jan. 16th in New Jersey).

    At 10:02 of the third period, Alex Ovechkin slashed Nick Ritchie and presented Boston with a power play that coincided with an already surging momentum swing in the Bruins’ favor.

    Though the B’s did not score on the ensuing skater advantage, Boston caught Washington in the vulnerable minute after special teams action when Smith (3) one-timed a shot past Vanecek’s blocker side.

    Lauzon (2) setup Smith with the primary assist on a backhand pass through the slot, while Ritchie (4) was credited with the secondary assist as the Bruins tied it, 3-3, at 13:07 of the third period.

    A little more than four minutes later, the Bruins made good on the comeback– Carlo (2) blasted a one-timer past the Capitals netminder to give the B’s their first lead of the night, 4-3.

    Sean Kuraly (1) and Wagner (1) each earned their first assist of the season on Carlo’s goal at 17:23.

    With 1:38 remaining in regulation, Washington head coach, Peter Laviolette, used his timeout and pulled his goaltender for an extra attacker.

    Though the Caps drew up plans to try to tie the game, the B’s foiled them.

    Krejci setup Marchand (6) with a lead pass through the neutral zone so that No. 63 in black and gold could hit the empty net and give Boston a two-goal lead.

    Krejci (7) had the only assist on Marchand’s empty net goal at 18:34 and the Bruins led, 5-3.

    Washington pulled their goalie again with about 35 seconds left, but it was to no avail as the clock ticked down to the final seconds, then “zero”.

    Boston sealed the deal on the, 5-3, comeback victory– scoring five unanswered goals in what was just their sixth victory after overcoming a three-goal deficit in the regular season since 1995-96.

    The Bruins finished Monday night’s effort leading in shots on goal, 33-26, including a, 16-6, advantage in the third period alone.

    Boston also finished the night leading in hits (27-17), while Washington wrapped up Monday’s action with the advantage in blocked shots (19-8) and giveaways (11-2).

    The teams finished the night 50-50 in faceoff win%, while the B’s went 0/4 and the Caps went 1/4 on the skater advantage.

    The Bruins improved to 1-0-2 when trailing after the first period, 2-0-1 when trailing after the second period and 2-1-1 when allowing the game’s first goal this season.

    They also became the first team to beat Washington in regulation this season.

    Boston continues their four-game road trip (1-0-1) with a pair of games in Philadelphia against the Flyers on Wednesday and Friday before returning home to face the Buffalo Sabres on Saturday.

  • DTFR Podcast #217- Hurry Up, We’re Streaming

    DTFR Podcast #217- Hurry Up, We’re Streaming

    “Tracking pucks” are out (at least for now), Pierre-Luc Dubois and Patrik Laine were traded for one another, Jim Rutherford resigned as General Manager of the Pittsburgh Penguins and the “NDubble” is underway in Lake Placid.

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