This week’s DTFR Power Rankings are here! A quick look at the standings and a few tidbits of news from the week.
Zdeno Chara surpassed 1,500 career games, Claude Julien reached 1,200 games behind the bench, the Toronto Maple Leafs are facing injuries and backup goaltender struggles, Taylor Hall reportedly won’t sign an extension with the New Jersey Devils, the 2019 NHL Global Series happened and the 2020 NHL Global Series was announced.
The new format of the DTFR Podcast is introduced as Dustin Byfuglien is out for an extended period of time, Louis Domingue was traded, Scott Sabourin suffered a scary injury and the New York Islanders are on a nine-game winning streak.
For the first time this season, the calendar is flipped to a new month– and with a new month comes new expectations.
All 31 National Hockey League teams are starting to find a rhythm– for better or worse– and it’s time to acknowledge the general trends of what to expect based on what’s already happened for the first 1/8th of the season (approximately).
American Thanksgiving is still around the corner, which means that any team in a playoff position by Nov. 28th is more likely to qualify for the playoffs by April 4th.
There’s enough time between now and then for a lot to change.
As always, that means it’s time for a new forecast based on what we’ve seen so far and what we may see in the future.
In other words, here’s an educated guess based on a formulaic approach thanks to the wonderful world of spreadsheets.
This isn’t an exact science. It takes into account everything from the last few seasons, as well as every little detail through the end of Oct. 31, 2019.
Anything can happen. It’s a long road to April.
Projected Standings After One Month
- p-Boston Bruins, 110 points (12 games played entering November 1st)
- x-Tampa Bay Lightning, 106 points (12 GP)
- x-Montreal Canadiens, 92 points (13 GP)
- Florida Panthers, 91 points (13 GP)
- Toronto Maple Leafs, 91 points (14 GP)
- Buffalo Sabres, 82 points (13 GP)
- Detroit Red Wings, 79 points (13 GP)
- Ottawa Senators, 74 points (11 GP)
The Boston Bruins are off to a hot start thanks to Tuukka Rask’s stellar goaltending (6-0-1 record, 1.42 goals against average, .951 save percentage in seven games played) and David Pastrnak’s hot stick (12-12–24 totals in 12 games played).
Bruce Cassidy’s leadership behind the bench has steered the B’s away from a Stanley Cup Final appearance hangover and towards another playoff berth for what would be the fourth year in-a-row.
Meanwhile, after a slow start to their season, Jon Cooper and the Tampa Bay Lightning casually waltz into home ice advantage in at least the First Round of the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs and Claude Julien re-enters the postseason frame with the Montreal Canadiens as if it’s 2004 again (granted, Julien and the Habs made it in 2017, but only after Julien replaced Michel Therrien as head coach for the second time).
Joel Quenneville’s first season as head coach of the Florida Panthers led to an improvement, but not quite enough to get them back into the postseason, while another Stanely Cup winning coach took his team in a different direction.
That coach is Mike Babcock and that team is the Toronto Maple Leafs, who trudged through the middle of the road all season and ended up just outside of a wild card spot in the Eastern Conference (unless Kyle Dubas and Brendan Shanahan decide to stray from the “Shanaplan”).
Though the Buffalo Sabres are hot right now, it seems history repeats itself. Buffalo’s great October, November and/or December wasn’t enough to sustain themselves through the winer months of January, February and March, but overall the team improved and should be a playoff contender next season.
At least the Sabres aren’t the Detroit Red Wings (still a few years away from being a contender) or the Ottawa Senators (they say they’ll spend money in 2021, but…).
- y-Washington Capitals, 110 points (14 GP)
- x-Pittsburgh Penguins, 102 points (13 GP)
- x-New York Islanders, 95 points (11 GP)
- wc1-Carolina Hurricanes, 92 points (12 GP)
- wc2-Columbus Blue Jackets, 91 points (12 GP)
- Philadelphia Flyers, 89 points (11 GP)
- New York Rangers, 87 points (10 GP)
- New Jersey Devils, 81 points (10 GP)
Alex Ovechkin continues his annual quest for the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy and likely succeeds unless Pastrnak has anything to say about it.
In the meantime, the Washington Capitals continue to take home the regular season crown in the Metropolitan Division because somehow they always seem to do that no matter the postseason outcome.
The Pittsburgh Penguins avoid major missteps without Evgeni Malkin in the lineup for most of October due to injury and turned things on for the duration of the second half of the season as they always do, yielding 2nd place in the Metropolitan Division.
Barry Trotz’s leadership with the New York Islanders has keep things tight-knit and playoff bound, but unless every 2020 Stanley Cup Playoff home game for the Isles is played at NYCB Live/Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, then it’s not worth it.
Rod Brind’Amour is the best coach for the Carolina Hurricanes and he continues to climb the ranks of “best head coaches in franchise history” with another wild card appearance, at least, and what should be yet another thrilling playoff run for the Canes.
Meanwhile, somehow the Columbus Blue Jackets pieced together enough wins to snag the last wild card spot in the Eastern Conference before bowing out in the First Round due to a lack of depth.
Finally, the Philadelphia Flyers, New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils are all near the bottom of the division, but only with a few points spread between them– meaning that anything after 1st or 2nd place in the division is realistically up for grabs as long as a team goes on a perfectly timed run.
- z-Nashville Predators, 104 points (13 GP)
- x-St. Louis Blues, 101 points (13 GP)
- x-Winnipeg Jets, 93 points (13 GP)
- wc1-Colorado Avalanche, 92 points (12 GP)
- Chicago Blackhawks, 87 points (11 GP)
- Dallas Stars, 86 points (14 GP)
- Minnesota Wild, 85 points (13 GP)
In the Western Conference, the Nashville Predators are going to pounce on the competition as the leaders of the West in the regular season. The only trouble is, they still might blow it in the last second of overtime or something.
The defending champion St. Louis Blues are content to finish 2nd in the Central Division, but remain hungry in their quest for another Cup.
After a slow start to the season, Paul Maurice and the Winnipeg Jets somehow right the ship and earned themselves the last divisional spot in the Central Division.
But the Colorado Avalanche hold a wild card spot in the latest forecast as the real wild card of the entire Western Conference. Injuries could hold them back in the regular season, but they’ve shown they can make noise in the playoffs last spring.
Otherwise, if the Avs can stay healthy for longer periods of time, then Colorado could climb in the standings.
Finally, the Chicago Blackhawks are still trending in the wrong direction– facing the existential crisis of holding onto the old guard or continuing to dismantle their Cup-winning core– while the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild compete for the worst of the former and/or current Minnesota franchises this season.
Spoiler alert, it’s the Wild.
- y-Vegas Golden Knights, 101 points (14 GP)
- x-Anaheim Ducks, 96 points (14 GP)
- x-San Jose Sharks, 92 points (13 GP)
- wc2-Calgary Flames, 91 points (15 GP)
- Vancouver Canucks, 89 points (12 GP)
- Edmonton Oilers, 84 points (14 GP)
- Arizona Coyotes, 82 points (12 GP)
- Los Angeles Kings, 82 points (13 GP)
Nothing is going how things were expected to go in the Pacific Division and as a result, there’s still no conclusive results.
The Vegas Golden Knights are good and could likely win the Pacific Division regular season title, but the Anaheim Ducks aren’t bowing out of playoff contention just yet.
Meanwhile, the San Jose Sharks are as bad as the Los Angeles Kings, so this forecast will be further fine-tuned next month as the Sharks continue to slip from dominant to dormant in the standings.
The Calgary Flames, Vancouver Canucks and Edmonton Oilers all might take a stab at playoff contention, yet the Arizona Coyotes are on the rise.
At the very least, this is the most unpredictable division in the league that not even our current forecast can make any definitive claims.
Check back next month for further separation in the spread, as well as a more realistic view of where each team should likely land within the range of standings.
The Colorado Avalanche handed the Boston Bruins their first loss of the season as the Avs downed the B’s, 4-2, at Pepsi Center Thursday night.
Andre Burakovsky scored the game-winning goal in the third period for Colorado after two goals by Boston were overturned by virtue of the coach’s challenge early in the second period and early in the third period.
Philipp Grubauer (3-0-0, 2.33 goals against average, .931 save percentage in three games played) made 39 saves on 41 shots against for a .951 SV% in the win for the Avalanche.
Bruins goaltender, Jaroslav Halak (1-1-0, 1.53 GAA, .957 SV% in two games played) stopped 32 out of 35 shots faced (.914 SV%) in the loss.
Boston fell to 3-1-0 (6 points) on the season and remained tied for 2nd in the Atlantic Division with the Detroit Red Wings (though Detroit holds the tiebreaker not in games played or record this season versus Boston, but in goal differential).
Meanwhile, Colorado improved to 3-0-0 (6 points) and remained tied for 2nd in the Central Division with the Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets (Colorado holds the tiebreaker, having played fewer games than the Preds and Jets).
Bruce Cassidy moved David Backes up a line from the fourth line right wing to the third line right wing alongside Danton Heinen and Charlie Coyle as a result of Joakim Nordstrom making his season debut.
Nordstrom returned from a foot injury and took his usual spot on the fourth line left wing with Sean Kuraly at center and Chris Wagner on the right side.
Kevan Miller (knee) and John Moore (shoulder) were still out of the lineup due to injury on Thursday, while Brett Ritchie joined Par Lindholm and Steven Kampfer as the healthy scratches for Boston.
Almost midway through the first period, Brad Marchand wrapped around the net and tossed the puck to David Pastrnak (1) for a one-timer from the low slot that beat Grubauer and gave the Bruins the first lead of the night.
Marchand (2) and David Krejci (1) had the assists on Pastrnak’s goal as Boston led, 1-0, at 7:58 of the first period.
With the primary assist on the goal, Marchand pulled to within one assist from 300 assists in his career.
Late in the opening frame, Zdeno Chara (1) rocketed a slap shot from the point that deflected off of Avalanche forward, Gabriel Landeskog’s stick and found its way behind the Colorado netminder to give the Bruins a two-goal lead.
Pastrnak (3) and Patrice Bergeron (3) recorded the assists on Chara’s goal at 15:34 and the B’s led, 2-0.
Shortly after Chara’s goal, the Bruins botched a line change and had too many skaters on the ice.
Boston’s bench was assessed a minor penalty at 18:28 and the Avs went on the power play for the first time of the night.
Less than a minute into the ensuing skater advantage for Colorado, Landeskog waltzed into the attacking zone and rang a shot off the post on Halak’s short side– generating enough of a rebound for Nathan MacKinnon (1) to tap home with his stick and cut the lead in half, 2-1, at 19:04.
MacKinnon’s goal was assisted by Landeskog (2) and Cale Makar (3) and gave the Avalanche at least one goal in seven consecutive periods this season.
After one period in Denver, the Bruins led, 2-1, on the scoreboard and in shots on goal, 15-12.
Boston also held the advantage in blocked shots (6-3) and faceoff win percentage (52-48), while Colorado led in giveaways (6-3) and hits (9-6).
Each team had three takeaways aside entering the first intermission, while the Avalanche were 1/1 on the power play.
Less than two minutes into the second period, Karson Kuhlman thought he scored his first goal of the season after sniping a shot off the bar and in, but Colorado’s head coach, Jared Bednar, used his coach’s challenge to argue that Krejci had interfered with Grubauer prior to the goal.
After review, it was determined that Krejci had indeed given Grubauer’s left leg the slightest tap with his stick and the call on the ice was overturned– no goal.
Moments later, Backes tripped Avs forward, Tyson Jost, and was sent to the penalty box as a result at 6:19 of the second period.
Colorado failed to convert on their second power play of the night, but caught Boston in the vulnerable minute after special teams play.
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (2) scored on a loose puck that was redirected in the low slot– catching Halak out of position.
Matt Calvert (3) had the only assist on Bellemare’s goal at 9:43, as the Avalanche extended their record for goals in consecutive periods to eight periods thus far this season.
In the final seconds of the middle frame, Nikita Zadorov was penalized for inference when he collided with Jake DeBrusk at 19:41.
Through 40 minutes of action in Colorado, the score was tied, 2-2, while the Bruins led in shots on goal, 29-24 (including a second period shots on goal advantage of 14-11).
Boston also maintained an advantage in blocked shots (9-6), hits (14-11) and faceoff win% (60-40), while the Avalanche led in giveaways (12-7).
Both teams had six takeaways aside as Colorado was 1/2 on the skater advantage and the B’s were 0/1 on the power play heading into the third period.
DeBrusk thought he had scored after roofing a shot past Grubauer’s glove side while the Avalanche goaltender dove from one side of the crease to the other, but despite his best efforts, Colorado utilized another coach’s challenge to argue the call on the ice (goal) was incorrect as the Bruins had entered the attacking zone offside.
After review– and for the second time of the night– the call on the ice was overturned. No goal.
One of the four Bruins entering the offensive zone had been just ahead of the puck and therefore offside, thus the Avs succeeded in yet another coach’s challenge.
Midway through the third period, Burakovsky (1) snatched a loose puck in Colorado’s attacking zone, then fired a shot off the far post to Halak’s left side and in while Burakovsky’s teammate, Joonas Donskoi, was acting as a screen in front of the Boston goaltender.
Burakovsy’s goal was unassisted at 12:54 of the third period and gave Colorado their first lead of the night, 3-2.
The goal also extended the Avs’ consecutive periods with a goal streak to nine.
With a little over 90 seconds left in the action, Cassidy pulled Halak for an extra attacker, but it was to no avail.
Landeskog (2) pocketed the empty net goal at 18:59 to seal the deal on a two-goal lead, 4-2, and the victory for the Avalanche.
Mikko Rantanen (2) and MacKinnon (4) had the assists on the goal.
At the final horn, the Avalanche had won, 4-2, despite trailing in the final shots on goal total, 41-36.
Both teams had 12 shots on net in the third period, while the Bruins finished Thursday night’s action leading in blocked shots (13-11), hits (19-13) and faceoff win% (57-43).
Colorado finished the night leading in giveaways (13-8) and 1/2 on the power play. The B’s went 0/1 on the skater advantage.
Boston finished their four-game road trip to start the season 3-1-0 and haven’t started a season 4-0-0 since the 1990-91 season (4-1 win vs. PHI, 7-1 win vs. QUE, 5-2 win @ QUE, 4-2 win @ WPG).
The Bruins face 2019 1st overall pick, Jack Hughes, and the New Jersey Devils on Saturday night in Boston’s first home game of the season.
Tampa Bay Lightning
62-16-4, 128 points, 1st in the Atlantic Division
Eliminated in the First Round by Columbus
Additions: F Pat Maroon, F Chris Mueller, F Gemel Smith, D Kevin Shattenkirk, D Luke Schenn, D Luke Witkowski, G Mike Condon (acquired from OTT), G Spencer Martin, G Curtis McElhinney, G Scott Wedgewood
Subtractions: F Andy Andreoff (signed with PHI), F Michael Bournival (retired), F Ryan Callahan (traded to OTT), F Gabriel Dumont (signed with MIN) F Adam Erne (traded to DET), F Mitch Hults (signed with Stockton, AHL), F Kevin Lynch (signed with Laval, AHL), F J.T. Miller (traded to VAN), D Dan Girardi (retired), D Anton Stralman (signed with FLA), G Connor Ingram (traded to NSH), G Edward Pasquale (KHL)
Still Unsigned: G Marek Mazanec (ELH, TBL reserve list)
Re-signed: F Danick Martel, F Cedric Paquette, F Brayden Point, F Carter Verhaeghe, D Dominik Masin, D Ben Thomas
Offseason Analysis: Despite tying the NHL record for the most wins in the regular season, the Tampa Bay Lightning couldn’t even win a playoff game and were swept by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the First Round of the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Every year, a lot of people pick the Lightning to win the Stanley Cup and every year, a lot of people are disappointed.
On paper, this team is like the San Jose Sharks– really good and should win every season. In reality, this team is nothing like the San Jose Sharks, because Tampa has at least won the Cup before in 2004.
Bolts GM, Julien BriseBois, had one primary focus this offseason– re-signing Brayden Point.
Everything else was just excess.
Anton Stralman became expendable at his high cost and Dan Girardi aged out of Tampa’s system.
In their place– veteran defenders in their prime and on one-year contracts– Kevin Shattenkirk and Luke Schenn are fully capable of taking on top-six defensive roles with the Lightning. Shattenkirk is yet another former New York Ranger to head join Tampa– this time on a one-year, $1.750 million deal– and Schenn costs the Bolts a league minimum, $700,000.
BriseBois also brought in a revolving door of backup goaltenders with Curtis McElhinney as the main course behind Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Tampa’s starter himself (Vasilevskiy), signed an eight-year extension worth $76.000 million ($9.500 million cap hit) that goes into effect next season.
BriseBois negotiated a team-friendly bridge deal with Point, keeping the 23-year-old center in a Lightning sweater for three more years at $6.750 million per season (the same cap hit as Patrik Laine’s new deal with the Winnipeg Jets, but with an extra year).
In the third season of his current contract, however, Point’s salary will be $9.000 million, which means Tampa will have to tender a qualifying offer of at least $9.000 million to re-sign him three years from now.
Point’s going to get paid big money on his next deal and the Bolts are banking on the salary cap to go up with increased league revenue thanks to a new U.S. TV broadcasting rights deal that will have to be signed by then too.
For now, head coach, Jon Cooper can continue to relax and coach his casual style for the regular season, at least.
Come playoff time, he’ll have to tighten the reigns a bit in hopes of driving Tampa’s compete level to an all time high for what’s expected to be a deeper run than a First Round embarrassment.
To keep the band together for the time being, BriseBois shipped J.T. Miller to the Vancouver Canucks for Marek Mazanec (since signed with a team in the Czech Republic), a 2019 3rd round pick and a conditional 2020 1st round pick in June, dumped Ryan Callahan’s contract and a 2020 5th round pick in Ottawa for now former Senators backup, Mike Condon, and a 2020 6th round pick in July and traded Adam Erne to the Detroit Red Wings for a 2020 4th round pick in August.
In the end, Point signed a team friendly cap hit, but with the long-term cost of having to rebalance the books in 2022.
Offseason Grade: C+
For a team that didn’t meet their high expectations, the Lightning met their goals for this offseason– don’t overreact and re-sign Point.
They made some minor moves and understand the core of the roster still has enough in it for at least a few more years together until bigger philosophical questions must come into consideration.