Down the Frozen River

Tag: New York Islanders

  • Merkle’s Weekly Bumblings: Week 4

    Player of the Week: Josh Bailey

    This award almost went to Bailey’s captain John Tavares, who himself had a 3-goal 5-point week, but his output couldn’t quite match that of Bailey, who tallied 7 points (all of them assists) during the Islanders’ 3-game stretch. The versatile Islanders forward started off the week with a trio of apples against Vegas on Monday night, before adding 2 apiece Thursday in Washington and Sunday against the Avs.

    But, quite more impressively, Bailey’s scoring stretch goes beyond this week’s 3 games. In fact, it triples that.

    Yes, to find the last time Josh Bailey was held off of a scoresheet, you have to travel all the way back to October 14th against the Sharks. 10 games ago. Registering 2 goals and 14 assists in the 9 games since, once could argue that Bailey is possibly the hottest player in the league that doesn’t play for the Tampa Bay Lightning.

    Team of the Week: New York Rangers

    This was another tight vote, as the San Jose Sharks almost got the nod here. But I’m going to give it to the Rangers based on the fact that they needed this hot streak more than fish need water. After a mostly-miserable October where nothing seemed to go right, the Rangers rolled into MSG to face Vegas on All-Hallows Eve, looking to banish the ghouls that were haunting them. (It physically pained me to write that.)

    Fresh off a loss in the ‘Battle to Decide Who is the Least Worst’ in Montreal, the Blueshirts battled their way to a 6-4 victory over the Golden Knights and get their feet back under them, at least for the time being. Faced with the daunting task of taking on the scorching hot Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday night (in Tampa’s barn), the Rangers pulled off the upset, allowing just 1 goal against the hottest offense in the league, and vanquished the home team on the strength of a J.T. Miller goal just 1:19 into overtime. Two nights later it would be Kevin Shattenkirk spoiling another Florida foe’s party, as his OT goal would lift the Rangers to their 3rd consecutive win, and directly into this prestigious award.

    Now, doubling your season victory total in one week isn’t necessarily something to brag about, but the Rangers desperately needed a week like this to at least drag them back into something resembling contention. We’ve still got a lot of season to go, but digging yourself too big a hole early on can prove fatal when the season reaches crunch time.

    Game of the Week: Tampa Bay Lightning 8 @ Florida Panthers 5, Monday October 30th

    How could it not be? Seriously. Look at the score. That’s silly. Plus the intrastate rivalry, there was a fight, Andrei Vasilevskiy tied a league record for wins in October, it was just dumb and that’s what made it great.

    “Oh, but what about…”

    No! You’re wrong! My article, my rules, silliness wins.

    News, Notes, and Nonsense:

    I’m officially done making jokes about the Vegas goaltending situation, because at this point I might actually be like 3rd or 4th on their depth chart.

    Habs goaltender Charlie Lindgren has been a rare bright spot for the team this year, as he has now gone 4-0 as an NHL starter and racked up his 1st career shutout with a 38-save effort to blank the Blackhawks in the United Center. Not bad, kid. Not bad.

    Brian Boyle returned to game action this week, promptly telling cancer where it can shove it.

    A bunch of guys squirted each other with water bottles and the league fined them for it, which can be filed under both the news and nonsense parts of this section.

    Alright, let me just check and see if I missed anything as I was putting this together on Sunday evening and *opens Twitter* OH DEAR LORD WHAT HAPPENED?!?

    So…apparently Matt Duchene is a Senator…and, Kyle Turris is a Pred…and both of those teams’ futures now belong to Joe Sakic. Huh…

  • TRADE ANALYSIS: Preds, Sens solidify contender status, Avs profit later

    Breakups are hard.

    Joe Sakic was one of Matt Duchene‘s all-time heroes growing up– right up there with golden age era Colorado Avalanche counterpart, Peter Forsberg. Now, Sakic has traded away the player that was meant to carry the torch as Colorado transitioned from their franchise’s greatest player of all-time to the 3rd overall pick in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft.

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    Last year’s Colorado Avalanche sealed the deal for Duchene. He had waited long enough for a franchise that has only made the playoffs twice in his career to rebuild.

    His days were numbered and had been rumored to be on his way out since things really began to go south last season, but Avalanche general manager, Joe Sakic, held on until the very last minute– demanding quite the return in hopes of making up for the lost time in talent acquisition and development after the Ryan O’Reilly trade with the Buffalo Sabres at the 2015 NHL Entry Draft.

    Nikita Zadorov hasn’t lived up to the hype– though he is on their roster, J.T. Compher isn’t as prolific as O’Reilly, Mikhail Grigorenko‘s now playing in the KHL and the 31st overall pick was flipped by the Avs at the draft to the San Jose Sharks. The O’Reilly deal had a clear winner (Buffalo) and setback Colorado further than they expected to have been in the post-O’Reilly Era, already depleted at center a season after losing Paul Stastny to the St. Louis Blues in free agency.

    For Duchene, the drama’s over.

    No more questions about who’s going to step up, when thing’s are going to turn around or how long things will last.

    The deal is done.

    Sunday night, while playing at Barclays Center against the New York Islanders, Matt Duchene was pulled off the ice during a stoppage to assist now former teammate, Blake Comeau, out of the rink with an injury. Duchene had been traded– mid-game. The first in recent memory since Janurary 12, 2012, when the Montreal Canadiens sent Mike Cammalleri to the Calgary Flames during a matchup with the Boston Bruins at TD Garden.

    Unknown-6Duchene will be closer to home, bringing his 4-6-10 totals in 14 games with Colorado so far this season to Canada’s capital. His Senators debut will be against his former team later this week as Ottawa takes on Colorado in the 2017 SAP NHL Global Series this Friday and Saturday in Stockholm, Sweden.

    The 26-year-old center had 428 points (178 goals, 250 assists) in 586 games played with the Avalanche since being drafted in 2009 and is moving on to greener pastures with the Ottawa Senators after a career worst minus-34 in 77 games last season.

    Ottawa is going through a little breakup of their own as part of this three-team trade, sending the other largest part of the deal, Kyle Turris, to the Nashville Predators, while dealing Andrew Hammond, Shane Bowers, a 2018 1st round pick (with top-ten protection) and a 2019 3rd round pick to Colorado.

    In perhaps the biggest underrated pickup from this trade, Turris brings his 3-6-9 totals in 11 games with the Sens this season to the Nashville Predators. The 28-year-old center is coming off of a career best 27 goals last season and finished the 2016-17 campaign with 27-28-55 totals in 78 games played.

    A strong, two-way player, Turris’s current contract expires at the end of the season, but fear not, Preds fans, he’s already signed a six-year extension that’ll keep him in Nashville through the 2022-23 season at a $6.000 million cap hit (beginning next season).

    Predators GM David Poile knows he’ll need plenty of depth down the middle for a long playoff run. Nashville has their sights set on a Cup run and given their last Stanley Cup Final appearance, they’ll need one of the best group of centers down the middle, in the event of injury (a la Ryan Johansen).

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    Luckily, that’s where Kyle Turris fits the bill. In 544 career NHL games with Ottawa and the Phoenix Coyotes, he’s had 136 goals and 184 assists (320 points). The 3rd overall pick by the Coyotes in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft seeks to win it all with his third team in the NHL.

    To complete the deal, the Predators sent Samuel Girard, Vladislav Kamenev and a 2018 2nd round pick to the Avalanche. Girard is a highly touted prospect once log-jammed in Nashville’s immense depth on the blue line, now free to flourish with Colorado and was the 46th overall pick in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft. Kamenev was the 42nd overall choice by the Predators in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft.

    While Sakic kept his demands high throughout the entire process of trading Duchene, he may reap the rewards of a plethora of picks, prospects and much needed depth in goal that is all-too-often overlooked (but becomes quite apparent when goalies are injured, let alone one of them– hello, Vegas).

    Whether or not Sakic will flip the assets he attained for more remains to be seen– if he’s even the one to do so (there’s no guarantees in the midst of a rebuild, even if the draft picks are one or two calendar years away).

    tl:dr The Colorado Avalanche finally traded Matt Duchene to the Ottawa Senators in a three-team trade in which Kyle Turris got shipped from the Sens to the Nashville Predators. In all, Colorado acquired Shane Bowers, Andrew Hammond, Samuel Girard, Vladislav Kamenev, a 2018 1st round pick (OTT), a 2018 2nd round pick (NSH) and a 2019 3rd round pick (OTT).

    Colorado makes off with the most assets that could pay off if they draft the right guys or flip for more roster components at a later date, Ottawa got a center that they won’t have to worry about giving a raise this offseason (though they’ll still have to re-sign other large components in the next year or two) and Nashville got Turris locked up to a six-year extension going into effect next season, while also legitimizing themselves as a contender for the Cup this season with a solid core down the middle.

    Some fun facts:

    Duchene’s contract expires at the end of the 2018-19 season. His current cap hit is $6.000 million. Ottawa has about $3.700 million in cap space currently, according to CapFriendly and will need to re-sign players like Mark Stone and Cody Ceci next July (2018), as well as Erik Karlsson in 2019.

    Nashville’s current cap hit of about $70.270 million, with Turris signed to a 6-year, $6.000 million per extension going into effect next season, will be even tighter heading into July 2018, which means they could be the new Washington Capitals in terms of everyone’s “Cup or bust” team this season.

    Colorado’s cap hit is now about $66.741 million with a little over $8.000 million in cap space with more to offer throughout the season in terms of potential transactions and expendable rental players come this year’s trade deadline.

  • November 5 – Day 33 – Rolling Avs vs. a Sandwich

    Last Sunday was spectacular, as there was little to no overlap between the three games, meaning fans could focus in on only one game at a time.

    With this Sunday’s four-game schedule, we get pretty darn close to that similar situation. The action starts in Edmonton at 4 p.m. when Detroit visits the Oilers, followed two hours later by Colorado at the New York Islanders and Montréal at Chicago (NHLN/RDS/SN) at 7 p.m. Finally, this evening’s nightcap drops the puck at 9 p.m. when New Jersey makes its annual visit to Calgary (SN360). All times Eastern.

    If Original Six matchups get you really excited, there’s no doubt the Canadiens-Blackhawks game is the one for you. That being said, we featured Chicago yesterday and I don’t want to feature teams on back-to-back days this early in the season.

    Because of that, let’s feature the only game between two teams that are currently in playoff position (because, you know, that’s super important the first week of November).

     

    That’s right, you read it correctly: if the standings remain the way they are right now, the 8-5-0 Avalanche and the 7-5-1 Islanders are both on their way to extending their seasons by at least four playoff games.

    Even more unpredictable is that Colorado enters tonight’s game riding a three-game winning streak. The Avs offense has been firing on all cylinders since October 28 against the Blackhawks, as it has scored 15 goals (five goals-per-game) for the (t)fourth-most in the league in that time.

    Leading the charge over this stretch is none other than the top overall pick in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft: F Nathan MacKinnon. Though he personally hasn’t been the goalscorer, his 2-5-7 totals in the past three games have undoubtedly been among the top performances in the league over the past week.

    But if MacKinnon isn’t scoring the goals, who is? Answer: RW Mikko Rantanen, who has scored four of his five goals on the season since October 28, including two on that date against Chicago.

    Even though he played for a notoriously bad Avalanche offense last season that scored only 2.01 goals-per-game, Rantanen managed a 20-18-38 rookie season in 75 games played lat year. This Finn is an absolute stud with a nose for twine that should be very exciting to watch for the remainder of his career, whether in Denver or elsewhere.

    In particular, the Avs have been very advantageous, as they’ve converted a (t)second-best 50 percent of their power plays since last weekend; and as you might expect, MacKinnon and Rantanen have been a major part of that effort. Considering New York’s 79.5 percent kill rate for the season is 11th-worst in the NHL, the Isles would be wise to keep D Johnny Boychuk and his team-leading 11 PIM under control.

    Speaking of the Islanders, they’ve also been one of the strongest offenses in the league as their 3.62 goals-per-game is (t)third-best.

    New York’s culprit is just as predictable as Colorado’s, though he’s been a lot better about spreading the puck around to both of his wings. C John Tavares has been one of the brightest stars in the league this season (did anyone say contract year?), as his 12 goals are overshadowed only by RW Nikita Kucherov‘s 14.

    Even though Tavares is a good great goalscorer, he also makes his parents proud by showcasing his ability to share with the rest of what I’ve affectionately named the Sandwich Line. Linemates F Josh Bailey and F Anders Lee have also seen some solid offensive numbers this season, as they both have point totals at or in excess of 15. In particular, Lee has been the most impressive scorer without a “C” on the front of his sweater, as eight of his 15 points are goals.

    With two hot offenses going head-to-head, this contest will almost certainly come down to the defense and goaltender that bend the most without breaking. Though neither blue line is necessarily fantastic, I’m leaning towards New York holding off MacKinnon and Rantanen to earn two points.

    Pitching his second shutout in as many starts, Second Star of the Game G Corey Crawford and the Chicago Blackhawks beat the Minnesota Wild 2-0 at the Xcel Energy Center in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day.

    Both Crawford and First Star G Devan Dubnyk were absolutely spectacular in this contest. Both had shutouts through the first two periods, and Dubnyk allowed his lone goal with 5:42 remaining in regulation. Crawford ended the night saving all 24 shots faced, while Dubnyk made 33-of-34 saves (.971 save percentage).

    The goal Dubnyk allowed belonged to Third Star F Artem Anisimov (D Duncan Keith and F Patrick Kane), and he didn’t have much of a chance to make the save. For starters, the Hawks had a power play due to rookie F Luke Kunin committing a double-minor hi stick against D Cody Franson, so the Wild’s defenses were already dropped.

    Chicago made good work of the advantage, as Kane started with the puck at the right point before passing along the blue line to Keith while Anisimov was setting himself up in the crease as a screen. The defenseman snapped a waist-high shot towards the net that Anisimov deflected towards the far post for the first goal of the game.

    F Alex DeBrincat (C Jonathan Toews) tacked on the insurance goal on an empty net with 97 seconds remaining in regulation to secure the win for the Blackhawks.

    The Hawks’ victory is the second-straight by a road team in the DtFR Game of the Day series, pulling the visitors within four points of the 17-12-4 home teams.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #78- Just Give Them Actual Sweaters

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #78- Just Give Them Actual Sweaters

    Nick and Connor rant about the standings entering November, how good the New Jersey Devils and Vancouver Canucks are and blast the 2018 Winter Games jerseys for Canada and USA (they’re bad, very bad).

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

  • November 2 – Day 30 – How fun can the DMV can be?

    Most Thursdays are busy, and this one is no different. A perfect dozen games are on the schedule, so we should be in for an exciting night of hockey action.

    Like most nights do, this evening’s festivities find their beginning at 7 p.m. when two games (Vegas at Boston [SN/SN360/TVAS] and the New York Islanders at Washington) drop the puck, followed by three more (Detroit at Ottawa [RDS2], the New York Rangers at Tampa Bay and Columbus at Florida) half an hour later. 8 p.m. marks the beginning of a second trio of contests (Philadelphia at St. Louis, Montréal at Minnesota [RDS/TSN2] and Dallas at Winnipeg), with a pair of matchups (Carolina at Colorado and Pittsburgh at Calgary) holding an hour before getting underway. Buffalo at Arizona finds its start at 10 p.m., half an hour before tonight’s nightcap: Toronto at Los Angeles. All times Eastern.

    There’s reasons aplenty to choose any one game this evening. Here’s just a few I can think of:

    • Vegas at Boston: After being selected in the expansion draft, D Colin Miller makes his first trip back to the TD Garden.
    • New York at Washington: It’s rivalry night in the US Capital!
    • Philadelphia at St. Louis: C Jori Lehtera played for the Blues for three seasons, but he was traded to the Flyers this offseason.

    Of those three games, the one that gets me the most excited is taking place at Capital One Arena. Off to the DMV!

     

    For those wondering, no: you can’t register for your new license plates at Capital One Arena. This is a different DMV.

    I’ve made it a habit of late to feature stellar offenses, and the  7-4-1 Islanders have been nothing short of that so far. Through a month of action, New York has done nothing but average 3.67 goals-per-game, the fourth-highest scoring rate in the entire NHL.

    Even among all the talk about his future, all C John Tavares does is score. He’s been an absolute monster to start this season, as his 11-4-15 totals through 12 games played are undoubtedly the best on the team. In fact, his 11 goals are the second-most by any player in the NHL and only two short of RW Nikita Kucherov‘s baker’s dozen.

    Tavares’ primary partner in crime is none other than F Josh Bailey, who has managed a 3-11-14 effort so far this year. Tack on F Anders Lee‘s 6-6-12 totals, and you have a first line that has accounted for 20 of the Isles’ 44 goals (45 percent). If the Capitals can’t find a way to squelch what I affectionately refer to as New York’s Sandwich Line (named such because of Bailey, Lee and Tavares’ initials), G Braden Holtby could be in for a long day.

    Speaking of 5-3-0 Holtby, it’s been the activity in his end of the rink that has been the biggest struggle for the 5-6-1 Capitals. Of course, even though his .919 season save percentage and 2.75 GAA may not be necessarily indicative of the fact, it hasn’t really been his fault Washington has seen a spike in goals against this season. Holtby has faced 258 shots already this campaign (32.3 per start), which is the second-highest work load among goaltenders with eight or fewer starts this season.

    Instead, it’s largely his defense’s fault that the Caps have allowed a seventh-worst 3.42 goals-per-game. That being said, there is one defenseman that has been laying it all on the line for his club: Brooks Orpik.

    The former first-rounder has been all over the ice doing the nitty-gritty things to help his team win: he’s throwing hits (three per game); he’s blocking shots (2.6 per game); heck, he’s even providing sparks by earning seats in the penalty box (his eight penalty minutes are [t]second-most among Washington defensemen). If Head Coach Barry Trotz knows nothing else about his team, he knows Orpik will do everything short of scoring to help the team in red (he hasn’t registered a marker since his three-goal explosion in 2015-’16).

    Fortunately for Holtby, the Islanders’ 30.4 shots-per-game is the 10th-lowest in the NHL, so his defense should be able to manage this evening’s onslaught for the most part. If they can’t, I think this could be the Isles’ third-straight victory.

    Bolstered by First Star of the Game G Cory Schneider‘s first shutout of the season, the New Jersey Devils beat the Vancouver Canucks 2-0 at Rogers Arena in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day.

    I predicted a competitive contest, and that’s exactly what we got. Only one goal was registered in the opening 59:44 of play (read: basically the entire game), and the only reason W Drew Stafford (Third Star F Taylor Hall) was able to score the Devils’ insurance marker was due to Second Star G Jacob Markstrom abandoning his post for the Canucks’ extra attacker.

    Otherwise, this was a game dominated by the goaltenders. Schneider certainly earned his shutout, as Vancouver threw everything it had at him. He saved all 37 shots he faced to earn his first clean sheet since on the road since January 16, 2016.

    Markstrom was also exemplary, as he saved all but one of his 25 shots faced (.96 save percentage) in his third loss of the season.

    Unfortunately, it was that lone blemish, scored courtesy of RW Jimmy Hayes (Hall) with 9:51 remaining in the second period, that proved to be the deciding goal – and Markstrom had actually already performed brilliantly on the play.

    Hall entered the offensive zone screaming up the far boards to set himself up for a quick wrist shot against Markstrom. The netminder did exactly what he needed to, using his left pad to direct the shot towards to his right. Unfortunately for him, Hayes was the first to reach the loose puck, and he banged a slap shot from above the right face-off circle off the far post.

    Jersey’s victory is the second-straight by a road team in the DtFR Game of the Day series. That being said, the 16-10-4 home teams still own a six-point advantage in the series.

  • October 19 – Day 16 – Won’t you be my neighbor?

    With nine games on tonight’s schedule, there’s no time to waste. Let’s jump right in!

    As it usually does, the evening starts at 7 p.m. when four contests (Vancouver at Boston [SN360/TVAS], the New York Islanders at the New York Rangers, Nashville at Philadelphia and Tampa Bay at Columbus) drop the puck, followed by red-hot New Jersey at Ottawa (RDS) 30 minutes later. Slow-starting Edmonton will try to find its way with a visit to Chicago (SN1) at 8:30 p.m., trailed half an hour later by another two games (St. Louis at Colorado and Carolina at Calgary). Finally, tonight’s nightcap takes place in Arizona when the Coyotes host Dallas at 10 p.m. All times Eastern.

    As we saw last night, there’s nothing like a good rivalry game to get the juices flowing. And what better rivalries exist than those between clubs separated by only a half-hour train ride? The Battle of New York is on!

     

    Some rivalries start immediately when the second team is formed. Others are made following intense regular season and – more likely – nasty playoff series.

    The Big Apple Bout checks both those boxes.

    Ever since the Islanders began play in 1972, interactions between these two squads and their respective fan-bases have been heated. In the same strain as the old Dodgers-Giants matchups, as well the more contemporary tangles between the  Giants and Jets, Knicks and Nets, Mets and Yankees and NYCFC and Red Bulls, no one hates a New York team like a New Yorker that supports the other club. Just ask those Santas in 2003.

    But there’s more history between these clubs than simply claiming the same geographic area as home. Excluding any preseason matchups, these two clubs have squared off 341 individual times, with the Rangers narrowly leading the total series 163-159-19.

    But, when we get into the true basis of any NHL rivalry, we find the Islanders have a decent advantage. It may not seem that way by simply looking at the Isles’ playoff record against their New York brethren, as they lead that total series by only one game with a 20-19 record. But, when we realize these clubs have played eight Stanley Cup playoff series against each other and the Isles have advanced five times, we start to get the real root of the issue.

    Surprisingly, the rivalry between these clubs has been dominated by the Islanders for the last three seasons, as they own a 10-3-0 against the Blueshirts since the 2014-’15 campaign. Included in that stretch is the 2015-’16 season that featured the Islanders sweeping the season series against the Rangers for the first time in franchise history.

    If they want to win their fourth-straight series against the Rangers, the 2-3-1 Isles had better stick to the formula that has worked so far for them in this two-week old season: G Thomas Greiss.

    Seriously, that’s all I, and more importantly, the Islanders have to show for being 11th in the Eastern Conference. The defense allows a 12th-worst 33.2 shots against-per game (read: bad) and the offense currently ranks eighth-worst in the league at 2.5 goals-per-game (read: worse).

    But that’s the beauty of how Greiss has been playing so far this season. His 3.07 GAA may not be pretty, but it’s all you can ask of a goaltender who’s getting peppered every night and still managing a .921 save percentage.

    Oh, what’s that? G Jaroslav Halak is starting tonight? Oh boy…

    Well, it’s actually not that bad, as Halak’s 2.62 GAA is actually superior to Greiss’. Apparently, the defense plays better when the Slovak is in net, which is a good thing considering he’s rocking a .907 save percentage after three starts.

    Keeping in mind the Rangers’ offense has produced an 11th-best 33.3 shots-per-game so far this year, this may not end well for the Boys from Brooklyn.

    And don’t let the Islanders confuse you by winning the Pat LaFontaine Trophy the past three seasons: the Rangers have been the better team of the two since the turn of the millennium. Since the 2000-’01 season, the Blueshirts have won 10 of their 16 season series against the Islanders, including an unrelenting 6-0-0 performance in 2003-’04. Making matters even worse for the Islanders in that season is the fact that none of those games required overtime.

    But turning our attention back to present day, the 1-5-1 Rangers are absolutely floundering at the bottom of the Eastern Conference with Montréal (the Blueshirts win the ROW tiebreaker against the Habs, so at least they have that going for them… which is nice).

    In a situation similar to the Isles’, nothing is going right for the Rangers as their defense and goaltending averages the ninth-most goals against (3.71) while the offense is seventh-worst by managing only 2.43 goals-per-game.

    And this is the team that made it to the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.

    If anything has gone right for the Rangers so far this season, I suppose it’s their power play. Though it’s far from the best in the league, a 24.1 percent success rate (11th-best in the NHL) is nothing to spit at. Having already scored a league-leading four power play goalsthis season (tied with F Filip Forsberg), if C Mika Zibanejad has the chance to employ the man-advantage, it’s a safe bet he’ll be able to at least give the Rangers a chance to find a win against the Isles.

    This may not be an excellent game on paper, but rivalry games have a way of proving to be exciting. I’m leaning towards the Rangers winning this game with home-ice and the fact that they have G Henrik Lundqvist at their disposal.

    Led by First Star of the Game F Jaden Schwartz‘ hat trick, the St. Louis Blues beat the Chicago Blackhawks 5-2 at Scottrade Center in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day.

    The Notes needed only 4:46 of action to take a lead they would not yield. Schwartz (Third Star RW Vladimir Tarasenko and D Robert Bortuzzo) is the guilty party, and his backhanded shot was the lone goal of the first period.

    The Schwartz Show continued 5:59 into the second period when he took an assist from G Jake Allen down the ice to bury a wrist shot on G Corey Crawford on the opposite end. 110 seconds after Schwartz’ second goal of the night, Tarasenko found what ended up being the game-winning goal on his stick.

    St. Louis managed a fourth unanswered goal 7:01 into the third period when F Kyle Brodziak (LW Scottie Upshall and D Colton Parayko) buried his first goal of the season, but Schwartz’ (Parayko) third goal of the night – scored on an empty net with 52 seconds remaining – was not struck before Chicago registered two power play goals in the span of 80 seconds.

    First was RW Richard Panik (D Duncan Keith and F Patrick Kane) scoring on a tip-in with the man-advantage, followed by W Ryan Hartman (F Alex DeBrincat and D Brent Seabrook) finding the back of the net on a controversial power play deflection with 3:53 remaining. Those two goals pulled the Hawks within a two-goal deficit, which explains why Crawford had abandoned his post late in the game.

    Allen earned the victory after saving 22-of-24 shots faced (.917 save percentage), leaving the loss to Crawford, who saved 28-of-32 (.875).

    Though Allen played spectacularly, his defense deserves much of the credit for limiting the Hawks to 24 shots against. In particular, the D-corps allowed only four shots in both the first and second period before Chicago poured on the offense in the third. With his eight blocks, there’s a lot to be proud of for D Joel Edmundson.

    That’s two-straight three-goal victories by the 10-5-1 home teams in the DtFR Game of the Day series, who now have a seven-point lead on the visitors.

  • October 15 – Day 12 – Kings of the Isle

    These Sundays during football season are tough, aren’t they? Since the NHL knows it isn’t always the hottest ticket in town during the fall, they intentionally backlog their Sundays until later in the year, leaving these early-season Sundays lightly populated.

    Oh well, I suppose we’ll have to do with what we have.

    Tonight’s action starts at 7 p.m. this evening when Boston makes its inaugural visit to Vegas (SN1), followed by Buffalo at Anaheim two hours later. Finally, our nightcap drops the puck at 10:30 p.m. when the New York Islanders make their annual visit to the Staples Center for a tilt with Los Angeles. All times Eastern.

    I want the most competitive game we can find today between teams we haven’t featured yet, and according to the standings that game is being contested between the Islanders and Kings.

     

     

     

     

     

    Based off preseason predictions, I don’t think there were many that would have pegged this as the game of the night. Few here at DtFR are predicting either to make the playoffs, and certainly not both.

    Instead, we’ve been presented with a Los Angeles team that has started the season with a strong 3-0-1 record, and an Islanders club that is not far behind at 2-2-1.

    Starting with the Kings, they’ve been one of the elite defenses to start the season, having allowed only 1.75 goals per game to rank second-best in the NHL behind Ottawa. In particular, D Derek Forbort has played spectacularly by allowing only one goal against while he’s on the ice, while D Drew Doughty has also been very good managing 2.5 blocks-per-game. Together, they’ve contributed to a corps that has allowed only 30.5 shots against-per-game to reach G Jonathan Quick, the eighth-best effort in the league.

    Speaking of Quick, he’s easily been on of the top-six goaltenders in the league through two weeks of play. Having posted a .943 save percentage and a 1.74 GAA, he has silenced any and all doubters wondering if he’ll be able to resume his form from before last season’s injury.

    Unfortunately for Angelenos, it will not be Quick in net tonight since he was a part of the Kings’ 4-2 victory over the Sabres last night. Instead, it will be G Darcy Kuemper making his first start for the Kings after signing as a free-agent this offseason. Though last season’s .902 save percentage and 3.13 GAA with the Wild was certainly not the best of his five-year NHL career, Kuemper is certainly a capable backup as he managed an 8-5-3 record in 17 starts.

    As far as the Islanders are concerned, they think they’re pretty good on defense too, and G Thomas Greiss is nice enough – and good enough – to let them think that.

    In all honesty, New York doesn’t exactly have a good defense at all. The Isles allow a (t)11th-worst 34.4 shots-per-game to reach Greiss, but he’s played brilliantly even with the heavy workload. Though his 3.07 GAA is only 20th-best in the league right now, his .921 save percentage is 14th. If only he had a defense playing in front of him.

    But, in a similar situation to Los Angeles, Greiss is getting the night off after posting a 3-1 victory in San Jose last night. Instead, it’ll be G Jaroslav Halak making his third start of the season.

    It seems the defense plays better when Halak is in net, as he as a 2.45 GAA that is much better than Greiss’, even though his .914 save percentage is certainly not.

    Since both clubs played last night, I’ll be interested to see the energy level in this game. Since the Kings did not have to travel for tonight’s game – and the fact that I believe they’re better – I’m leaning towards Los Angeles taking this game.

    They needed an overtime goal from Third Star of the Game Brandon Saad, but the Chicago Blackhawks were able to avenge their four-game elimination at the hand of the Nashville Predators last postseason, winning yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day 2-1.

    Chicago’s victory is actually of the  come-from-behind variety, as it allowed Filip Forsberg (Scott Hartnell and P.K. Subban) to take a lead with 1:44 remaining in the second period with a power play wrist shot.

    Patrick Sharp (John Hayden and Cody Franson) eventually leveled the game at one-all, but it wasn’t until only 5:36 remained in regulation. His backhanded shot forced ended up being 3:05 of three-on-three action before Saad (Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith) ended things on a tip-in.

    Saad’s goal began before he was even on the ice, as an extended possession in the Blackhawks’ offensive zone allowed Jonathan Toews to depart the ice so he could come on. While the change was happening, Keith held the puck at the blue line under no pressure from Colton Sissons. As Saad entered play, Keith passed the puck to him as he advanced towards Second Star G Pekka Rinne. Though he did pass to Kane across the ice along the far boards, Kane returned the favor when Saad reached the crease to set up an easy deflection goal.

    First Star G Corey Crawford earned the victory after saving 37-of-38 shots against (.974 save percentage), leaving the overtime loss to Rinne, who saved 33-of-35 (.943).

    Since October 10, wins have alternated between home and away teams in the DtFR Game of the Day series. After tonight’s hosts held serve, they earned a 7-4-1 record that is three points better than the roadies’.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #75- Captain’s Practice (with Cap’n Cornelius)

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #75- Captain’s Practice (with Cap’n Cornelius)

    Nick and Colby are joined by the Cap’n this week as the trio discuss the Vegas Golden Knights home opener, bad starts for the Arizona Coyotes, Montreal Canadiens, New York Rangers and San Jose Sharks, as well as other thoughts around the league. The New York Islanders really need an arena and the Carolina Hurricanes really need some fans.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

  • Numbers Game: 2017-18 Standings Projections

    Yes, it’s October.

    Yes, it’s too early to make a final standings projection, but I’m going to do it anyway using a pseudo-algorithm called Heart and Grit Gut Feeling 2.0 (combined with the standard Microsoft Excel forecasting formula).

    Gut Feeling 2.0 is better than just using the eye test because it combines actual numbers plugged into Microsoft Excel with the complete partial bias of whatever I feel like is the right record, number of points and/or anything shown below for all 31 teams in the NHL.

    But seriously, to keep this loosely based in mathematics, I’ve included a range of points that three separate models are indicating (scroll to the bottom), as well as what Gut Feeling 2.0 is telling us.

    2017-2018 Projected Final Standings

    Eastern Conference

    Atlantic Division

    1. y-Boston Bruins, 101 points
    2. x-Montreal Canadiens, 99 points
    3. x-Tampa Bay Lightning, 98 points
    4. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 95 points
    5. Ottawa Senators, 93 points
    6. Buffalo Sabres, 90 points
    7. Florida Panthers, 82 points
    8. Detroit Red Wings, 80 points

    Predicting the final outcome across the Eastern Conference this year is a lot like playing the lottery– whether you pick your numbers or just do quick picks, your odds of winning are still far, far less than getting struck by lightning twice.

    In the Atlantic Division, the Boston Bruins barely beat out the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning for the regular season division title with 101 points over Montreal’s 99 points and Tampa’s 98 points based on the Gut Feeling 2.0 model. Of course, seeding in the Stanley Cup Playoffs more often than not means nothing. Just like winning the President’s Trophy doesn’t mean much unless you win the Cup.

    Given the parity of the Atlantic Division teams, it wouldn’t be surprising to see any of the top-four teams in this model switch places or grab the division crown. Based on expected final standings point-ranges alone, Tampa looks to rebound with ease, while Montreal maintains status quo.

    It’s a bit of a surprise, but the Ottawa Senators sit just on the outside looking in, though logic says otherwise. For one team to improve in the division (say, Tampa for example, or the Buffalo Sabres with a healthy, full-season of Jack Eichel), another team must lose. Five points in the final standings is the only difference between 2017-2018 and 2016-2017 for the Sens and ultimately it costs them a postseason appearance.

    But if any major injuries occur to teams ahead of the Senators or Sabres, then expect either Ottawa or Buffalo to be ready to take their place.

    When it comes to 2018 Stanley Cup Playoff success, you might want to consider cashing in on the Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs to at least make it to the Second Round.

    Metropolitan Division

    1. z-Pittsburgh Penguins, 107 points
    2. x-Washington Capitals, 106 points
    3. x-New York Rangers, 103 points
    4. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 102 points
    5. New York Islanders, 92 points
    6. Carolina Hurricanes, 92 points
    7. Philadelphia Flyers, 91 points
    8. New Jersey Devils, 84 points

    The 2017-2018 final standings in the Metropolitan Division look similar to the 2016-2017 final standings in the Metropolitan Division. This is no accident. The top teams, Pittsburgh, Washington and the New York Rangers, remain dominant in their regular season play. Even the Columbus Blue Jackets, despite a six-point setback from their franchise best 50-win, 108-point season last year, remain a competitive team that should cross the 100-point plateau for two-seasons in a row under John Tortorella’s guise.

    Whereas the Washington Capitals do not clinch the President’s Trophy in the 2017-2018 season and instead falter by 12 points compared to last season, the Carolina Hurricanes show improvement in their money-puck roster mentality, but ultimately the giants of the Metropolitan Divsion (the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins, to be specific) prove too much for them to handle this season, though a 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs run seems imminent.

    Somehow the New York Islanders and Philadelphia Flyers remain stagnant this season, but the New Jersey Devils make the largest leap in points (from 70 points in ’16-’17 to 84 points in ’17-’18) as the rest of the division evens out.

    Look for Pittsburgh to advance to the Second Round and yet another entertaining Rangers-Capitals matchup in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

    Western Conference

    Central Division

    1. y-Chicago Blackhawks, 102 points
    2. x-St. Louis Blues, 101 points
    3. x-Nashville Predators, 97 points
    4. x-Dallas Stars, 96 points
    5. x-Minnesota Wild, 95 points
    6. Winnipeg Jets, 87 points
    7. Colorado Avalanche, 82 points

    Look, the Dallas Stars have tremendous talent on their expected first line of Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov, but even with Ben Bishop as their starting goaltender the Stars aren’t the best team in the Central Division.

    Instead, the annual “how do they keep doing this all the time? oh, right, they have Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith and Corey Crawford still” Chicago Blackhawks will just come out on top of the St. Louis Blues who look to improve from last season with a reinforced offense (hello, Brayden Schenn) and more experience on the blue line.

    The Nashville Predators, in all their glory with four incredibly deep forward lines, the best defense (on paper) and an elite starting goalie in Pekka Rinne, surprisingly fall short of winning the division coming off of their 2017 Stanley Cup Final run. Nashville will be in better playoff position heading into the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs, given they won’t be the last team to clinch in the Western Conference, and they should be destined for another Western Conference Finals run, at least.

    The Minnesota Wild are the winners of the consolation “hey the other division didn’t have four-quality playoff teams” prize and will clinch the second Western Conference wild card spot with 95 points in 2017-18– one season removed from a 49-25-8 record and 106 point, 2nd place finish in the Central Division.

    Finally, the Colorado Avalanche couldn’t possibly have a season worse than they did last season, though they’re still poised to finish behind the Winnipeg Jets for last place in the division.

    Pacific Division

    1. p-Edmonton Oilers, 112 points
    2. x-Anaheim Ducks, 109 points
    3. x-San Jose Sharks, 99 points
    4. Los Angeles Kings, 92 points
    5. Calgary Flames, 85 points
    6. Vancouver Canucks, 83 points
    7. Arizona Coyotes, 78 points
    8. Vegas Golden Knights, 72 points

    Gut Feeling 2.0 never lies and the numbers don’t lie either. The Edmonton Oilers will be the top team in the Pacific Division when all is said and done this season. Better yet, the Oilers will be this season’s President’s Trophy winners– something that hasn’t happened since the days of some guy wearing a jersey with the number “99” on the back of it skated around the ice.

    Other than Edmonton overtaking the Anaheim Ducks for first overall, there are virtually no changes in the Pacific Division standings. San Jose will knock at the door of a 100-point season for the third season in a row, only to fall a point short (for the second season in a row).

    While Los Angeles Kings fans may be disappointed this season, if anything, missing the playoffs for one more season should give them enough time to develop and recover from their offseason roster moves while GM Rob Blake figures out the reins and plans the path back to Stanley Cup glory.

    Things are coming together for the Arizona Coyotes. They won’t be a bad team; they’re just a victim of circumstance. Unfortunately, that circumstance dictates that it’s going to take one more season for the chemistry to work out as general manager, John Chayka, addresses the growing depth on offense (both in prospect development and with the addition of Derek Stepan this offseason), while building a stable core of defensemen and capable young goalies in Antti Raanta and Louis Domingue.

    Meanwhile the Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames go through their own growing pains for another season.

    Luckily for the Vegas Golden Knights, there’s no pressure to play better than last season, mostly because this is their inaugural season, so it can’t be worse than before!

    Look for Edmonton to make noise in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs, going as deep as the Western Conference Finals– at least. Likewise, the Sharks seem ready for a better fight in the postseason than last season.

    Plausible ranges in points based on three separate models (math done in Microsoft Excel alone– no Gut Feeling 2.0 added) for the 2017-2018 season:

    Atlantic Division

    Boston Bruins (94-101), Buffalo Sabres (67-84), Detroit Red Wings (86-101), Florida Panthers (84-92), Montreal Canadiens (93-99), Ottawa Senators (91-92), Tampa Bay Lightning (89-98), Toronto Maple Leafs (80-90)

    Metropolitan Division

    Carolina Hurricanes (81-87), Columbus Blue Jackets (84-92), New Jersey Devils (77-92), New York Islanders (84-97), New York Rangers (98-103), Philadelphia Flyers (90-92), Pittsburgh Penguins (105-108), Washington Capitals (102-119)

    Central Division

    Chicago Blackhawks (100-107), Colorado Avalanche (65-84), Dallas Stars (92-94), Minnesota Wild (93-97), Nashville Predators (94-97), St. Louis Blues (97-106), Winnipeg Jets (83-87)

    Pacific Division

    Anaheim Ducks (101-109), Arizona Coyotes (74-83), Calgary Flames (85-90), Edmonton Oilers (74-87), Los Angeles Kings (90-96), San Jose Sharks (99-104), Vancouver Canucks (72-95), Vegas Golden Knights (69-75)

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #72- 2017-2018 Metropolitan Division Preview

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #72- 2017-2018 Metropolitan Division Preview

    Nick and Connor provide an update on Jaromir Jagr, recap the latest news around the NHL in the last week and preview the 2017-2018 season for the Metropolitan Division. Connor introduces a good rule change to the rule change (you know the one about face-offs). ‘Sup Board of Governors? Also discussed, the Vegas Golden Knights Twitter game and Monopoly strategy.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.