Down the Frozen River

Tag: Calgary Flames

  • Merkle’s Weekly Bumblings: Week 5

    Player of the Week: Nikita Kucherov

    Tampa is kind of making these choices too easy every week.

    The hottest team in the league continued to roll, and the hottest line in the league followed suit. Linemates Vladislav Namestnikov (4 goals, 1 assist) and Steven Stamkos (1 goal, 5 assists) were certainly no slouches, but Kucherov’s 2 goals and 7 points in 3 games were easily the most impressive output of the week, especially considering both goals and 6 of those points were in the first 2 games of the week.

    Kucherov is even being talked about as having a shot at 50 goals in 50 games. While it’s certainly still quite a ways away, it will definitely be interesting to see if he can reach the fabled mark.

    Team of the Week: Toronto Maple Leafs

    Fans of Steve Dangle’s LFR series will know that this was a week chock full of victory puppies.

    After a very shaky stretch that saw the Leafs nearly fall all the way back to a .500 record after a scorching start, things looked increasingly bleak as they learned they’d be without superstar Auston Matthews heading into this week’s 4-game schedule. But the loss of #34 seemed to light a spark under his teammates’ collective tails.

    Toronto opened the week hosting the Golden Knights and whoever they could find willing to throw on some goalie pads (we love ya, Max) and the two squads treated us to an extremely fun night that ended in a 4-3 Leafs victory on the strength of a silky shootout goal from Mitch Marner. They would follow that effort up with a 4-2 victory over Minnesota, heading into a back-to-back home-and-home with arch rival Boston.

    Now, the Bruins are more Providence than Boston right now as they deal with a slew of injuries, particularly in the forward group, but credit them for putting up one heck of a fight at the ACC on Friday night as they came just 60 seconds from victory before James van Hockey (who notably had 4 points in the 2 games against the Bruins) tied the game and sent it to overtime. In overtime, Patrick Marleau touched the ice, so the team he played for won the game. (If you’re not familiar with Marleau’s ridiculous GWG stats, go have a look. Legitimately about 1/5th of his career goals have won a game.)

    Saturday night the Leafs would wrap up a Matthews-less week 4-0 after a 4-1 victory over the Bruins in Boston, with backup goalie Curtis McElhinney shining in net. The Leafs now get 4 days of rest, riding a boatload of momentum, and likely will see the return of Matthews the next time they hit the ice. Maybe hope your team doesn’t play them anytime soon.

    Game of the Week: Los Angeles Kings 4 @ Anaheim Ducks 3 (OT), Tuesday November 7th

    The NHL likes to think of Wednesday as rivalry night, but boy were they a day late this week.

    What was easily the most entertaining game of the year to this point (in this humble writer’s opinion) saw some fantastic stat lines. 7 goals, 79 shots, 54 hits, 51 penalty minutes, and 12 power plays should tell you what sort of game you missed if you didn’t happen to catch this barn-burner.

    To put the insanity of this game into simple terms, Jared Boll opened the scoring. Yeah, that Jared Boll! Isn’t that spectacular?! Like, okay, Brandon Montour did 99% of the work and just had his wrap-around attempt bounce onto Boll’s stick so he could hack it into an open net, but who really cares? Somebody get that man a cookie.

    Sami Vatanen would send the Ducks up 2-0 later in the 1st just as their power play opportunity expired, and for most of the 1st period the Ducks looked like they had the game by the throat. If not for some simply spectacular goaltending (see also: strategical flailing) by Jonathan Quick, this game could have gotten out of hand early. But after watching their goaltender perform miracles for most of the opening frame, the Kings decided maybe they should help him or something, so Anze Kopitar figured he’d go ahead and score a goal with just over 3 minutes remaining to send the teams to the locker rooms with Anaheim leading 2-1.

    The second period saw less offense and more punches in the face. Jonathan Quick attempted to help Derek Forbort ruin Corey Perry‘s day, but the referees felt that someone with a full cage getting into fisticuffs with someone who isn’t wearing a full cage isn’t decidedly fair, so Andy Andreoff (great name, btw) had to go to the penalty box and feel Quick’s shame for him. Jared Boll would later fight Andreoff, I would assume feeling that Andy should earn his own time in the penalty box and not just bum it off of others. Oh, also Rickard Rakell and Adrian Kempe scored goals, so that was kinda neat.

    The Kings absolutely mugged the Ducks in the 3rd, racking up 17 shots on John Gibson to just 6 mustered against them, but only Dustin Brown managed to get one past the Anaheim netminder, so off to bonus hockey we would go, knotted at 3. It would take nearly 4 minutes of 4-on-4 madness to decide the game, but finally Nick Shore would complete the Kings’ comeback and end a terrific night of hockey and shenanigans.

    News, Notes, & Nonsense:

    Jarome Iginla is still unsigned (podcast listeners will appreciate that), but he says he’s not ready to retire. I think he should play on a line with Jagr in Calgary, and we can nickname the line the Geri-hat-tricks or something like that.

    Roberto Luongo picked up career win number 455 this week, passing Curtis Joseph for 4th all-time in that category. I’m pretty sure nobody above him is better at self-deprecating Twitter humor, though, so really he’s probably the greatest of all time.

    Brian Boyle scored his first goal since returning to the Devils lineup, and his celebration was pretty much the most sincere display of happiness that doesn’t include a dog that you’ll ever see.

    The Hockey Hall of Fame inductee class of Danielle Goyette, Clare Drake, Jeremy Jacobs, Dave Andreychuk, Mark Recchi, Teemu Selanne, and Paul Kariya was one for the ages, and if you need a solid laugh, check out the back-and-forth between longtime friends Selanne and Kariya, some of the finest chirping you will ever find.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #79- Zone Time 101

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #79- Zone Time 101

    Nick, Connor and Cap’n recap the Matt Duchene trade and pick a winnner(s). The crew also discussed how good the Tampa Bay Lightning are and how the Montreal Canadiens haven’t been smart with asset management in recent years and where they could go from here.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

  • November 7 – Day 35 – The day Western Canadians aren’t so friendly

    It’s Tuesday in the NHL, so you know what that means: lots of games to be watched!

    In total, there’s nine games on tonight’s schedule, starting with six (Washington at Buffalo [NBCSN], St. Louis at New Jersey, Edmonton at the New York Islanders [TVAS], Arizona at Pittsburgh, Florida at Carolina and Nashville at Columbus) at the usual 7 p.m. starting time. Vegas at Montréal (RDS/TSN2) waits half an hour after those games begin before dropping the puck, followed by Vancouver at Calgary at 9 p.m. Finally, tonight’s nightcap – Los Angeles at Anaheim (NBCSN) – finds its start at 10 p.m. to close out the evening’s action. All times Eastern.

    What a slate of games! Just about every contest has a compelling reason to watch:

    • Edmonton at New York: For four seasons, F Ryan Strome called the Big Apple home. After an offseason trade, he’s wearing different shades of blue and orange.
    • Arizona at Pittsburgh: As assistant coach with the Penguins, Rick Tocchet won two-consecutive Stanley Cups. Now he’s trying to find a similar magic as the Coyotes’ head coach.
    • Nashville at Columbus: There’s few motivations stronger than playing against the team that cut you. Just ask LW Scott Hartnell.
    • Vancouver at Calgary: Ever since the Flames moved to Alberta, games against the Canucks have been circled in red.
    • Los Angeles at Anaheim: Round One of the Freeway Face-off goes down tonight on The Pond!

    Somehow, the Flames have escaped being featured in the DtFR Game of the Day series for the past 34 days. With a rivalry game tonight, that number will not grow to 35.

     

    Ever since the Flames’ first trip to Vancouver on February 1, 1981 representing the city of Calgary, the lore surrounding this rivalry has only grown by the game.

    This matchup is far more than a simple Pacific Division rivalry. It’s a contest between coastal and midwest living; a battle between political parties; a war for the Art Ross Trophy.

    If a hockey game could determine which way of life is superior, it would seem Calgary’s way of living has won out in the past. In all, the Flames, since moving to southern Alberta, have earned a 113-77-26-13 regular season record against their arch-nemeses that is further supported by their 21-17 postseason record.

    In total, these clubs have met in the postseason seven times since 1982, with the Flames winning all but two of those series – including the last two. Their most recent playoff meeting occurred in the first round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs and was highlighted by Game 2’s 132 penalty minutes. D Deryk Engelland, now a member of the Vegas Golden Knights, was the primary on-ice offender in the fight, but the league eventually ruled that Flames Head Coach Bob Hartley played an even bigger role and fined him $50 thousand. Calgary won the series in six games.

    That being said, the turn of the millennium was a positive one for the Canucks. They won seven-straight season series against Calgary starting with the 2007-’08 campaign – including sweeping the Flames 5-0-0 in 2013-’14. But, all good things must come to an end as the Flames have since regained an advantage and won the last three season series.

    To make things even more exciting, this is also a fairly important early meeting between these clubs in regards to the Pacific Division, and even the Western Conference. Both squads have already earned 16 points in the standings to join the three-way tie for third place in the division and their also in a seven-way tie for fifth in the conference.

    Technically, since the 7-5-2 Canucks have won only one game via shootout compared to the 8-6-0 Flames’ two, Vancouver is the superior team in the standings. As such, they currently occupy the West’s first wild card – an envious position only a month into the season, to be sure.

    When things are going Vancouver’s way, it’s been one of the best in the league at preventing its opposition from finding the back of 4-4-2 G Jacob Markstrom‘s net. Though his .918 save percentage is far from being worth writing home to Gavle, Sweden about, he’s managed a 2.3 GAA that is sixth-best in the NHL among goaltenders with at least seven starts.

    Of course, it doesn’t seem he’ll be writing home about tonight’s game anyways, as he lost 3-2 at home to the Red Wings last night. Instead, hockey sense leads me to believe 3-1-0 G Anders Nilsson will earn his fifth start of the season tonight. Though he’s had limited time, Nilsson has arguably been the stronger of the two netminders, as his .943 save percentage and 1.89 GAA are both second-best in the league among netminders with at least four starts.

    Regardless of who starts, the Cancuks are going to rely on their solid defense to keep things under control. Whether it’s D Alex Biega, RW Derek Dorsett and D Erik Gudbranson‘s combined 80 hits or D Michael Del Zotto‘s 2.2 blocks-per-game – or, more likely, a sum of those parts – the Canucks are among the league’s best at keeping shots off their netminder, allowing a fourth-best 29.5 per game.

    Meanwhile, everything seems to be coming up spades for the Flames of late, as they’re winners of their last three games, all against stiff Metropolitan competition.

    The key to this winning streak: solid play in the defensive zone. Since October 29, Calgary has allowed only six goals in three games – the third-fewest in the NHL in that stretch.

    That’s all the result of the incredible play by 8-5-0 G Mike Smith.

    Yes, the same Smith that posted a rough 19-26-9 record in Arizona last year.

    He’s been one of the top-three goaltenders in the NHL for the past nine days, as a .943 save percentage and 1.92 GAA earned him a perfect 3-0-0 record over that stretch. For the season, Smith has managed a solid .931 save percentage and 2.32 GAA to be in the discussion for top-10 goaltenders of the campaign so far.

    Perhaps the key to Smith finding success is playing for a new team. During his first season with the Coyotes (who then represented simply the city of Phoenix from their arena in Glendale instead of the entire state of Arizona) in 2011-’12, Smith earned a 38-18-10 record on a .93 save percentage and 2.21 GAA for easily the best performance of his 12-season career.

    For those Flames fans wondering, Smith is under contract through next season. Do with that information as you see fit.

    These clubs have already met once this season, playing to a 5-2 Flames victory at Rogers Arena on October 14. LW Johnny Gaudreau, D Mark Giordano, D Dougie Hamilton, D Travis Hamonic and C Sean Monahan all registered goals for Calgary, while only RW Brock Boeser and Dorsett could find the scorecard for the Canucks.

    Though the score of their last meeting may not indicate it, this game has a grind-it-out, defensive style written all over it. These types of games are my favorite without featuring a rivalry. Throw in the animosity and the fact that the Flames have already earned a win in the series away from the Scotiabank Saddledome, and this should be a nasty tilt. I like the Flames to hold on and win since the Canucks played last night, but we should be in for a thriller.

    Thanks in large part to a three-goal explosion in the first period, the Winnipeg Jets beat the Dallas Stars 4-1 at the American Airlines Center in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day.

    Perhaps it shouldn’t be too much of a surprise that Winnipeg found success in Texas. After all, the arena is not only sponsored by the world’s largest airline, but also nicknamed The Hangar.

    Whether that had anything to do with this game or not, the Jets didn’t take long to take control, as they had a one-goal lead after only 26 seconds of play courtesy of a C Mark Scheifele (First Star of the Game RW Blake Wheeler and LW Kyle Connor) wrist shot. With his fourth power play goal of the year (seventh overall), RW Patrik Laine (Wheeler and Scheifele) doubled Winnipeg’s advantage 4:46 later. Finally, only 57 seconds before heading to the dressing room for first intermission, Connor (Wheeler) scored a wrister to set the score at 3-0.

    If not for F Bryan Little‘s hi-sticking penalty against C Jason Spezza, maybe Second Star G Connor Hellebuyck could have earned his first shutout of the season. Instead, Third Star LW Jamie Benn (D John Klingberg and RW Alexander Radulov) buried a backhanded shot 4:13 into the second period to pull the Stars back within a 3-1 deficit.

    Even though Dallas fired a total of 23 shots in the final two periods, they could not sneak another goal past Hellebuyck. That fact became especially painful with 13 seconds remaining in the game, as Scheifele (Wheeler and D Jacob Trouba) slung a shorthanded snap shot from the blue line into an empty net to set the 4-1 final score.

    Hellebuyck earned the victory after saving 33-of-34 shots faced (.971 save percentage), leaving the loss to G Ben Bishop, who saved 22-of-25 (.88).

    Impressively, road teams in the DtFR Game of the Day series have won five of the last seven games to pull within four points of the 18-13-4 hosts.

  • TRADE ANALYSIS: Preds, Sens solidify contender status, Avs profit later

    Breakups are hard.

    Joe Sakic was one of Matt Duchene‘s all-time heroes growing up– right up there with golden age era Colorado Avalanche counterpart, Peter Forsberg. Now, Sakic has traded away the player that was meant to carry the torch as Colorado transitioned from their franchise’s greatest player of all-time to the 3rd overall pick in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft.

    Unknown-1

    Last year’s Colorado Avalanche sealed the deal for Duchene. He had waited long enough for a franchise that has only made the playoffs twice in his career to rebuild.

    His days were numbered and had been rumored to be on his way out since things really began to go south last season, but Avalanche general manager, Joe Sakic, held on until the very last minute– demanding quite the return in hopes of making up for the lost time in talent acquisition and development after the Ryan O’Reilly trade with the Buffalo Sabres at the 2015 NHL Entry Draft.

    Nikita Zadorov hasn’t lived up to the hype– though he is on their roster, J.T. Compher isn’t as prolific as O’Reilly, Mikhail Grigorenko‘s now playing in the KHL and the 31st overall pick was flipped by the Avs at the draft to the San Jose Sharks. The O’Reilly deal had a clear winner (Buffalo) and setback Colorado further than they expected to have been in the post-O’Reilly Era, already depleted at center a season after losing Paul Stastny to the St. Louis Blues in free agency.

    For Duchene, the drama’s over.

    No more questions about who’s going to step up, when thing’s are going to turn around or how long things will last.

    The deal is done.

    Sunday night, while playing at Barclays Center against the New York Islanders, Matt Duchene was pulled off the ice during a stoppage to assist now former teammate, Blake Comeau, out of the rink with an injury. Duchene had been traded– mid-game. The first in recent memory since Janurary 12, 2012, when the Montreal Canadiens sent Mike Cammalleri to the Calgary Flames during a matchup with the Boston Bruins at TD Garden.

    Unknown-6Duchene will be closer to home, bringing his 4-6-10 totals in 14 games with Colorado so far this season to Canada’s capital. His Senators debut will be against his former team later this week as Ottawa takes on Colorado in the 2017 SAP NHL Global Series this Friday and Saturday in Stockholm, Sweden.

    The 26-year-old center had 428 points (178 goals, 250 assists) in 586 games played with the Avalanche since being drafted in 2009 and is moving on to greener pastures with the Ottawa Senators after a career worst minus-34 in 77 games last season.

    Ottawa is going through a little breakup of their own as part of this three-team trade, sending the other largest part of the deal, Kyle Turris, to the Nashville Predators, while dealing Andrew Hammond, Shane Bowers, a 2018 1st round pick (with top-ten protection) and a 2019 3rd round pick to Colorado.

    In perhaps the biggest underrated pickup from this trade, Turris brings his 3-6-9 totals in 11 games with the Sens this season to the Nashville Predators. The 28-year-old center is coming off of a career best 27 goals last season and finished the 2016-17 campaign with 27-28-55 totals in 78 games played.

    A strong, two-way player, Turris’s current contract expires at the end of the season, but fear not, Preds fans, he’s already signed a six-year extension that’ll keep him in Nashville through the 2022-23 season at a $6.000 million cap hit (beginning next season).

    Predators GM David Poile knows he’ll need plenty of depth down the middle for a long playoff run. Nashville has their sights set on a Cup run and given their last Stanley Cup Final appearance, they’ll need one of the best group of centers down the middle, in the event of injury (a la Ryan Johansen).

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    Luckily, that’s where Kyle Turris fits the bill. In 544 career NHL games with Ottawa and the Phoenix Coyotes, he’s had 136 goals and 184 assists (320 points). The 3rd overall pick by the Coyotes in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft seeks to win it all with his third team in the NHL.

    To complete the deal, the Predators sent Samuel Girard, Vladislav Kamenev and a 2018 2nd round pick to the Avalanche. Girard is a highly touted prospect once log-jammed in Nashville’s immense depth on the blue line, now free to flourish with Colorado and was the 46th overall pick in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft. Kamenev was the 42nd overall choice by the Predators in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft.

    While Sakic kept his demands high throughout the entire process of trading Duchene, he may reap the rewards of a plethora of picks, prospects and much needed depth in goal that is all-too-often overlooked (but becomes quite apparent when goalies are injured, let alone one of them– hello, Vegas).

    Whether or not Sakic will flip the assets he attained for more remains to be seen– if he’s even the one to do so (there’s no guarantees in the midst of a rebuild, even if the draft picks are one or two calendar years away).

    tl:dr The Colorado Avalanche finally traded Matt Duchene to the Ottawa Senators in a three-team trade in which Kyle Turris got shipped from the Sens to the Nashville Predators. In all, Colorado acquired Shane Bowers, Andrew Hammond, Samuel Girard, Vladislav Kamenev, a 2018 1st round pick (OTT), a 2018 2nd round pick (NSH) and a 2019 3rd round pick (OTT).

    Colorado makes off with the most assets that could pay off if they draft the right guys or flip for more roster components at a later date, Ottawa got a center that they won’t have to worry about giving a raise this offseason (though they’ll still have to re-sign other large components in the next year or two) and Nashville got Turris locked up to a six-year extension going into effect next season, while also legitimizing themselves as a contender for the Cup this season with a solid core down the middle.

    Some fun facts:

    Duchene’s contract expires at the end of the 2018-19 season. His current cap hit is $6.000 million. Ottawa has about $3.700 million in cap space currently, according to CapFriendly and will need to re-sign players like Mark Stone and Cody Ceci next July (2018), as well as Erik Karlsson in 2019.

    Nashville’s current cap hit of about $70.270 million, with Turris signed to a 6-year, $6.000 million per extension going into effect next season, will be even tighter heading into July 2018, which means they could be the new Washington Capitals in terms of everyone’s “Cup or bust” team this season.

    Colorado’s cap hit is now about $66.741 million with a little over $8.000 million in cap space with more to offer throughout the season in terms of potential transactions and expendable rental players come this year’s trade deadline.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #78- Just Give Them Actual Sweaters

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #78- Just Give Them Actual Sweaters

    Nick and Connor rant about the standings entering November, how good the New Jersey Devils and Vancouver Canucks are and blast the 2018 Winter Games jerseys for Canada and USA (they’re bad, very bad).

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #77- Boo: A Very Merry Boone Jenner Halloween

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #77- Boo: A Very Merry Boone Jenner Halloween

    Nick, Connor and Cap’n address the news and notes from the past week of NHL action, discuss the demise of Antti Niemi, as well as take a gamble on the Vegas Golden Knights. The Los Angeles Kings are good (and lucky, according to Cap’n) and the Montreal Canadiens are bad (very bad). Also, Dwayne Roloson was 42 in 2011 (not 39).

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #74- Participation Trophies After One Game (Part II)

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #74- Participation Trophies After One Game (Part II)

    Jaromir Jagr signed with the Calgary Flames this week, the regular season started (though the Pittsburgh Penguins might not have been told yet that the games matter now) and former players tend to be GMs in the NHL, the Original Trio confirms. Also, we gave participation trophies without even watching the rest of the season for the second year in a row.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

  • Numbers Game: 2017-18 Standings Projections

    Yes, it’s October.

    Yes, it’s too early to make a final standings projection, but I’m going to do it anyway using a pseudo-algorithm called Heart and Grit Gut Feeling 2.0 (combined with the standard Microsoft Excel forecasting formula).

    Gut Feeling 2.0 is better than just using the eye test because it combines actual numbers plugged into Microsoft Excel with the complete partial bias of whatever I feel like is the right record, number of points and/or anything shown below for all 31 teams in the NHL.

    But seriously, to keep this loosely based in mathematics, I’ve included a range of points that three separate models are indicating (scroll to the bottom), as well as what Gut Feeling 2.0 is telling us.

    2017-2018 Projected Final Standings

    Eastern Conference

    Atlantic Division

    1. y-Boston Bruins, 101 points
    2. x-Montreal Canadiens, 99 points
    3. x-Tampa Bay Lightning, 98 points
    4. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 95 points
    5. Ottawa Senators, 93 points
    6. Buffalo Sabres, 90 points
    7. Florida Panthers, 82 points
    8. Detroit Red Wings, 80 points

    Predicting the final outcome across the Eastern Conference this year is a lot like playing the lottery– whether you pick your numbers or just do quick picks, your odds of winning are still far, far less than getting struck by lightning twice.

    In the Atlantic Division, the Boston Bruins barely beat out the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning for the regular season division title with 101 points over Montreal’s 99 points and Tampa’s 98 points based on the Gut Feeling 2.0 model. Of course, seeding in the Stanley Cup Playoffs more often than not means nothing. Just like winning the President’s Trophy doesn’t mean much unless you win the Cup.

    Given the parity of the Atlantic Division teams, it wouldn’t be surprising to see any of the top-four teams in this model switch places or grab the division crown. Based on expected final standings point-ranges alone, Tampa looks to rebound with ease, while Montreal maintains status quo.

    It’s a bit of a surprise, but the Ottawa Senators sit just on the outside looking in, though logic says otherwise. For one team to improve in the division (say, Tampa for example, or the Buffalo Sabres with a healthy, full-season of Jack Eichel), another team must lose. Five points in the final standings is the only difference between 2017-2018 and 2016-2017 for the Sens and ultimately it costs them a postseason appearance.

    But if any major injuries occur to teams ahead of the Senators or Sabres, then expect either Ottawa or Buffalo to be ready to take their place.

    When it comes to 2018 Stanley Cup Playoff success, you might want to consider cashing in on the Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs to at least make it to the Second Round.

    Metropolitan Division

    1. z-Pittsburgh Penguins, 107 points
    2. x-Washington Capitals, 106 points
    3. x-New York Rangers, 103 points
    4. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 102 points
    5. New York Islanders, 92 points
    6. Carolina Hurricanes, 92 points
    7. Philadelphia Flyers, 91 points
    8. New Jersey Devils, 84 points

    The 2017-2018 final standings in the Metropolitan Division look similar to the 2016-2017 final standings in the Metropolitan Division. This is no accident. The top teams, Pittsburgh, Washington and the New York Rangers, remain dominant in their regular season play. Even the Columbus Blue Jackets, despite a six-point setback from their franchise best 50-win, 108-point season last year, remain a competitive team that should cross the 100-point plateau for two-seasons in a row under John Tortorella’s guise.

    Whereas the Washington Capitals do not clinch the President’s Trophy in the 2017-2018 season and instead falter by 12 points compared to last season, the Carolina Hurricanes show improvement in their money-puck roster mentality, but ultimately the giants of the Metropolitan Divsion (the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins, to be specific) prove too much for them to handle this season, though a 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs run seems imminent.

    Somehow the New York Islanders and Philadelphia Flyers remain stagnant this season, but the New Jersey Devils make the largest leap in points (from 70 points in ’16-’17 to 84 points in ’17-’18) as the rest of the division evens out.

    Look for Pittsburgh to advance to the Second Round and yet another entertaining Rangers-Capitals matchup in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

    Western Conference

    Central Division

    1. y-Chicago Blackhawks, 102 points
    2. x-St. Louis Blues, 101 points
    3. x-Nashville Predators, 97 points
    4. x-Dallas Stars, 96 points
    5. x-Minnesota Wild, 95 points
    6. Winnipeg Jets, 87 points
    7. Colorado Avalanche, 82 points

    Look, the Dallas Stars have tremendous talent on their expected first line of Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov, but even with Ben Bishop as their starting goaltender the Stars aren’t the best team in the Central Division.

    Instead, the annual “how do they keep doing this all the time? oh, right, they have Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith and Corey Crawford still” Chicago Blackhawks will just come out on top of the St. Louis Blues who look to improve from last season with a reinforced offense (hello, Brayden Schenn) and more experience on the blue line.

    The Nashville Predators, in all their glory with four incredibly deep forward lines, the best defense (on paper) and an elite starting goalie in Pekka Rinne, surprisingly fall short of winning the division coming off of their 2017 Stanley Cup Final run. Nashville will be in better playoff position heading into the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs, given they won’t be the last team to clinch in the Western Conference, and they should be destined for another Western Conference Finals run, at least.

    The Minnesota Wild are the winners of the consolation “hey the other division didn’t have four-quality playoff teams” prize and will clinch the second Western Conference wild card spot with 95 points in 2017-18– one season removed from a 49-25-8 record and 106 point, 2nd place finish in the Central Division.

    Finally, the Colorado Avalanche couldn’t possibly have a season worse than they did last season, though they’re still poised to finish behind the Winnipeg Jets for last place in the division.

    Pacific Division

    1. p-Edmonton Oilers, 112 points
    2. x-Anaheim Ducks, 109 points
    3. x-San Jose Sharks, 99 points
    4. Los Angeles Kings, 92 points
    5. Calgary Flames, 85 points
    6. Vancouver Canucks, 83 points
    7. Arizona Coyotes, 78 points
    8. Vegas Golden Knights, 72 points

    Gut Feeling 2.0 never lies and the numbers don’t lie either. The Edmonton Oilers will be the top team in the Pacific Division when all is said and done this season. Better yet, the Oilers will be this season’s President’s Trophy winners– something that hasn’t happened since the days of some guy wearing a jersey with the number “99” on the back of it skated around the ice.

    Other than Edmonton overtaking the Anaheim Ducks for first overall, there are virtually no changes in the Pacific Division standings. San Jose will knock at the door of a 100-point season for the third season in a row, only to fall a point short (for the second season in a row).

    While Los Angeles Kings fans may be disappointed this season, if anything, missing the playoffs for one more season should give them enough time to develop and recover from their offseason roster moves while GM Rob Blake figures out the reins and plans the path back to Stanley Cup glory.

    Things are coming together for the Arizona Coyotes. They won’t be a bad team; they’re just a victim of circumstance. Unfortunately, that circumstance dictates that it’s going to take one more season for the chemistry to work out as general manager, John Chayka, addresses the growing depth on offense (both in prospect development and with the addition of Derek Stepan this offseason), while building a stable core of defensemen and capable young goalies in Antti Raanta and Louis Domingue.

    Meanwhile the Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames go through their own growing pains for another season.

    Luckily for the Vegas Golden Knights, there’s no pressure to play better than last season, mostly because this is their inaugural season, so it can’t be worse than before!

    Look for Edmonton to make noise in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs, going as deep as the Western Conference Finals– at least. Likewise, the Sharks seem ready for a better fight in the postseason than last season.

    Plausible ranges in points based on three separate models (math done in Microsoft Excel alone– no Gut Feeling 2.0 added) for the 2017-2018 season:

    Atlantic Division

    Boston Bruins (94-101), Buffalo Sabres (67-84), Detroit Red Wings (86-101), Florida Panthers (84-92), Montreal Canadiens (93-99), Ottawa Senators (91-92), Tampa Bay Lightning (89-98), Toronto Maple Leafs (80-90)

    Metropolitan Division

    Carolina Hurricanes (81-87), Columbus Blue Jackets (84-92), New Jersey Devils (77-92), New York Islanders (84-97), New York Rangers (98-103), Philadelphia Flyers (90-92), Pittsburgh Penguins (105-108), Washington Capitals (102-119)

    Central Division

    Chicago Blackhawks (100-107), Colorado Avalanche (65-84), Dallas Stars (92-94), Minnesota Wild (93-97), Nashville Predators (94-97), St. Louis Blues (97-106), Winnipeg Jets (83-87)

    Pacific Division

    Anaheim Ducks (101-109), Arizona Coyotes (74-83), Calgary Flames (85-90), Edmonton Oilers (74-87), Los Angeles Kings (90-96), San Jose Sharks (99-104), Vancouver Canucks (72-95), Vegas Golden Knights (69-75)

  • Colby’s Corner Top five Players Poised to Breakout

    A new season starts today, so it’s time for me to jump in and tell you five players to keep an eye out for as they could have breakout seasons. I didn’t limit myself to just rookies; I was also looking for players who could fill some big shoes or become a standout on their team.

    First up,

    1. Oliver Bjorkstrand

    This one may surprise a few, but after a strong preseason performance, Bjorkstrand could really step up this season and have a big role with the Columbus Blue Jackets. As a highly rated prospect, I believe Jacket fans have been waiting for him to show up in a big way.

    Bjorkstrand only has 38 games played over the past two seasons, recording 10 goals and 11 assists in that time. I remember watching him play in World Juniors a few years ago and he had the ability to take over a game and control his team’s offensive flow. If he can provide that for the Jackets, this would give them another weapon with a nice scoring touch. Bjorkstrand could be a name that you hear more of this season.

    Player’s goal: I think a successful season for him could be 10-15 goals with another 10-20 assists.

    Next up,

    1. Matthew Tkachuk

    I have been a huge fan of Tkachuk for a long time – if you have listened to podcasts you know this. Tkachuk had a solid rookie season, recording 13 goals and 35 assists. If that’s what you get from a 6th Overall pick in his first year, you are not going to complain if you are the Calgary Flames. Tkachuk’s physical game and willingness to get into dirty areas allowed him to find some extra points this past season.

    Last season in four playoff games, Tkachuk was held pointless and I think that left a bitter taste in his mouth. If he used that as a motivator in his offseason, than he should come back as an even better player. Not to mention the Flames signed the ageless wonder Jaromir Jagr to a one-year deal. Jagr can show Tkachuk how to use his big body to his advantage and give him other tips to have a great season.

    Player’s goal: I think a successful season for him could be 20-25 goals with another 30-40 assists.

    Next up,

    1. Alexander DeBrincat

    Rookie Alert: Alex DeBrincat makes my list as a player that could be the next Artemi Panarin in the Chicago Blackhawks organization. DeBrincat has been one of the best junior players over the past few seasons trying to crack the Hawks roster, and has finally done that this season. Yes, he is a rookie – and a small one at that – but he has proven he knows were the net is. DeBrincat has scored over 100 points in three-straight OHL seasons, including his final year with the Erie Otters when he finished with 65 goals and 62 assists for a 127 points.

    The argument that it won’t convert over is nonsense as junior players like Mitch Marner and Matthew Tkachuk are finding goals in this league. Another reason he is so high on my list is the opportunity he could have to play with some of the best players in the league in Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. If he can learn from either of them, this kid could become a star in no time.

    Player’s goal: I think a successful season for him could be 20-25 goals with another 35-45 assists.

    Next up,

    1. Jake Guentzel

    Now you can say Jake Guentzel is already a star from his Stanley Cup-winning performance last season. I agree, but I think he can play even better than he was in the playoffs. Guentzel had 13 goals and 8 assists in 25 playoff games last spring. It was a performance so strong that he deserved the Conn Smythe Trophy – only have it ripped from him by Sidney Crosby. We haven’t seen Guentzel in playoff form for a whole season, but this is that season.

    Thinking about Guentzel, Crosby, Phil Kessel and Evgeni Malkin all performing in top form has me believing this team could be looking at a three-peat without question, as they are probably the favorite in the East again. Guentzel’s scoring touch and being on the same page and line as Crosby could see his numbers sky rocket and he could be an even bigger star in Pittsburgh.

    Player’s goal: I think a successful season for him could be 30-35 goals with another 40-50 assists.

    Finally,

    1. Jack Eichel

    Jack Eichel will look to keep pace with fellow 2015 first-rounder Connor McDavid‘s scoring this year after missing the start of last season with a high ankle sprain. In addition to ruining Jack’s chance to shine for all 82 games, his injury was also a major contributor to the Buffalo Sabres’ slow start that potentially cost them their first postseason appearance since 2011. And the fact that Eichel had to watch his buddies Auston Matthews and McDavid in the playoffs last season was surely his motivator this offseason. Just watching a few preseason games, Jack looks faster and smoother this than he did last year.

    Eichel was very open about how he missed out on  a $1 million bonus for his points-per-game percentage last season. Jack had 57 points in 61 games played, but he hovered around one point-per-game for most of the season before finishing the season in a slump to fall short of his goal. After signing an 8-year, $10 million AAV Tuesday and with the potential to assume captaincy of this Sabres team and lead them to the playoffs, I bet Eichel will earn every cent of his bonus this season.

    Player’s goal: I think a successful season for him could be 30-35 goals with another 40-50 assists.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #73- Jagr Signs! (Kind Of)

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #73- Jagr Signs! (Kind Of)

    Our hearts go out to everyone in Las Vegas as well as the family of Dave Strader. Jaromir Jagr watch comes to an end (sort of) and Nick and Connor have already moved on to the next guy. It’s Phil Kessel‘s birthday and two members of the Original Trio discuss training camp cut/non-cut surprises.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.