Nick and Connor ponder whether or not Taylor Hall is a legitimate Hart Trophy candidate, which Western Conference team (NSH, WPG or VGK) will make the Stanley Cup Final and dive into the odds of the Florida Panthers making the playoffs and/or fielding a competitive team. Also, thoughts on the Detroit Red Wings and goaltender interference.
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Nick and Connor recap the 2018 trade deadline, 2018 Winter Games and 2018 overall even though it’s only March. Marco Sturm is worthy of an NHL coaching job, but will anyone take the risk? Hint: They should. Also, more thoughts on the Erik Karlsson saga.
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First of all, it’s March, which means it’s officially the best month of the year, but not for any of the reasons you’re thinking. College basketball can stay on the back burner– especially when there’s playoff hockey to look forward to next month when, oh yeah, that NCAA championship game actually occurs.
Save your “March is the worst month of the year” takes for the next person in line, thanks.
Anyway, at this point in the season it’s worth noting that the trade deadline has come and passed. While acquisitions like Rick Nash for the Boston Bruins, Derick Brassard for the Pittsburgh Penguins, Tomas Tatar for the Vegas Golden Knights and Paul Stastny for the Winnipeg Jets will certainly impact their teams, the following projected standings are merely an educated guess at how things should pan out.
There are simply too many variables that Microsoft Excel cannot account for, namely injuries, roster changes and well, whether or not a player woke up on the right side of the bed that day.
To that end, some projected points totals had a little Gut Feeling 2.0 added to them. In other words, the Toronto Maple Leafs are not going to end up with 130 or 131 points like a couple of models showed– there’s simply not enough games remaining for them to almost match an NHL record.
Therefore, more realistic measures have been added for some teams to account for “reality”.
Some teams like the Chicago Blackhawks, for instance, had a little win-percentage on the season taken into account for their 19 remaining games on the season– and then reflected in the total number of points they should earn.
As with all stats and analytics, try not to get too bogged down on one or another. A holistic viewpoint goes much further than trying to survive on heart and grit alone.
Especially in today’s NHL, where speed and skill are more present than ever before.
With that, here’s a glance at how the standings should shake out for all 31 NHL clubs based on their performances through February 28, 2018.
As always, my degree is in communication, not math. In other words, throw everything mentioned above out the window, strap yourself in and good luck surviving the adrenaline rush that is the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Oh, your team’s not going to make it, you say?
My condolences, Ottawa Senators, Buffalo Sabres, New York Rangers, Carolina Hurricanes, Blackhawks and Arizona Coyotes fans. Next year is totally your year.
Maybe.
The Atlantic Division was already determined in December. Nothing should surprise anyone, except for how close it should be coming down the wire for first place in the division.
It might seem crazy considering the Tampa Bay Lightning really bolstered their defense with Ryan McDonagh at the trade deadline, but Boston and Toronto have as much speed and offense to remain in the hunt for that little “Y” next to their names down the stretch. Plus it helps that the Lightning, Bruins and Maple Leafs aren’t playing each other every night, so that has to factor in their somehow.
Between 4th and 6th in the division it’s anyone’s game. The Montreal Canadiens, Detroit Red Wings and Florida Panthers are all teetering on the edge of either a rebuild or just a few steps away from a re-tool-on-the-fly.
Neither of them are inherently “ideal”, but they can’t do anything else to compete with Tampa, Boston and Toronto.
It’s worth noting that the Buffalo Sabres will barely climb out of the basement of the division this year. And that’s without Jack Eichel (fractured ankle).
Simply put, the Ottawa Senators are beyond bad.
After much turbulence leading up to this month in the Metropolitan Division, it seems by the end of the month, we’ll have a clear picture of who’s really a contender, who’s making a Second Round exit and who’s just pretending to be on the ice when they’re actually sending out some pretty high-tech holograms on the ice.
In other words, the Pittsburgh Penguins are suited for a three-peat as long as Matt Murray can stay healthy. Even still, they’re beginning to peak at the right time as they have done every year with Mike Sullivan behind the bench.
But who’s that neighbor of theirs in Pennsylvania? They might have to re-grease some poles in Philadelphia, because the Flyers are surging right now and it should carry them into decent playoff position.
The New Jersey Devils, Columbus Blue Jackets and Washington Capitals all remain competitive, but sadly fall victim to First or Second Round exits simply because have you seen the rest of the Eastern Conference? Yeah, I thought so too.
One of these years if the Carolina Hurricanes look to actually spend a little more money they’ll be able to take their money-puck approach back to the postseason for the first time since 2009, but this year is not that year. They didn’t do anything at the deadline and it shows.
Your President’s Trophy winners, ladies and gentlemen, entering March 2018 should be the Winnipeg Jets.
That’s right, the team in Winnipeg, Manitoba with a seating capacity of a little more than 15,000 fans at Bell MTS Place. That one. Winnipeg. The Western Conference’s Carolina Hurricanes. They aren’t big spenders, yet they bought exactly what they needed at the trade deadline in Paul Stastny.
Meanwhile, apparently Eric Staal‘s first hat trick in a little over five years is enough to catapult the Minnesota Wild on a surprising run down the stretch. Though they are currently 3rd in the Central Division, Minnesota is coming alive.
It’s hard to knock the Nashville Predators off of their game– especially while they’re in command of the division– but something just doesn’t go exactly as planned this month for the Preds.
They’ll still beat Minnesota in the First Round and set themselves up for quite a matchup with Winnipeg in the Second Round though. Obviously the winner of that is going to battle the Vegas Golden Knights for the Clarence S. Campbell Bowl.
A warning to the St. Louis Blues– keep up this downward trend and the Dallas Stars will replace you in the wild card.
Whatever upper body injury is plaguing Corey Crawford is only making things worse for the Chicago Blackhawks.
In some models, they should be a lot better than they are right now, but that’s due to their impressive streak of success from 2010-17. Now, in 2018, the wheels fell off and the floor fell out from under them– on top of the Crawford injury.
The Vegas Golden Knights, in their inaugural season, come up three points shy of winning the 2017-18 President’s Trophy as the team with the best regular season record. The Vegas Golden Knights.
Despite the push from all of the California clubs, this is Vegas’s division title to lose. Not just in the regular season, but in the playoffs too.
No amount of onslaught from the Los Angeles Kings or Anaheim Ducks should be able to stand a seven-game series with Ryan Reaves and the rest of the Golden Knights. Having said that though, it’s a shame the San Jose Sharks will likely pair-up with the Jets, because we’ll never get to know if Vegas could single handedly defeat all three California teams en route to the 2018 Stanley Cup Final.
That’s assuming a lot, but let’s roll with it.
All season long the Calgary Flames have been a lovable underdog. Unfortunately, their time is cut short. All good things must come to an end and again, if you’re going to do nothing at the deadline as a fringe competitor, you can’t expect to improve.
At least you shouldn’t, otherwise well, you know the definition of insanity (doing the same thing and expecting a different result).
Better luck next year, Edmonton Oilers, Vancouver Canucks and Arizona Coyotes.
Thanks to a nor’easter back in January that postponed a Boston Bruins-Florida Panthers matchup to the very last day of the regular season in April, the Bruins have passed the 60 game mark just in time for the trade deadline to have come and gone.
In other words, thanks to the day off between Sunday’s game in Buffalo and Tuesday night’s matchup on home ice against Carolina, I was able to put together projections for all of the new additions to the roster from the last week or two (Brian Gionta, Rick Nash, Tommy Wingels and Nick Holden).
Anyway, through 60 games of the 2017-18 season, the Boston Bruins have faltered as of late to 3rd place in the Atlantic Division with five games in hand on the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Nothing to worry about– what’s that, Patrice Bergeron‘s out for at least two weeks?
Okay, still nothing to worry about. The Bruins have a secret weapon with the last name “Nash”. No, his first name’s not “Rick”, though Rick Nash could really bring this team to the next level as a result of his acquisition. The secret weapon is Riley Nash.
Yes, Riley Nash.
He’s having a career season that could result in 13-23–36 totals when all is said and done. Even with his current 10-18–28 totals in 59 games played, he’s set new career highs in all offensive categories. Imagine what an additional three goals and five assists over the next 22 games could do for Boston as they head down the stretch with some unprecedented depth-scoring.
But enough about Riley Nash, let’s take a look at the rest of the roster, shall we?
Take a look at the latest forecast for the Bruins in the charts below. As always, please keep in mind that my degree is in communication and not math or anything to do with numbers, really. My expertise is in words so if anything looks out-of-whack– it’s Microsoft Excel’s fault.
I’m just kidding.
There’s outliers in everything and not every prediction pans out. Again, these charts are only a utopian view on things– ignoring injuries, healthy scratches, sickness, bad hair days or anything else.
Boston Bruins Projections Through 60 Games (22 Games Remaining)
Rick Nash should fit right in alongside David Krejci and Jake DeBrusk on the second line for Boston. In turn, the second line’s offense should breakout once the chemistry of a few games together is in flawless rhythm. Rick Nash just might end up with 40 points on the season, thanks to Krejci’s golden passes.
Hopefully that means another contract at the end of the season for the pending-UFA wearing No. 61.
Brad Marchand should top the scoring list for the Bruins for yet another year, surpassing the 70-point plateau with an expected 30-44–74 totals by the end of the regular season. Fellow linemates, Bergeron and David Pastrnak should also see some fantastic results over the next 22 games.
Even with his current injury– a fractured right foot– Bergeron should be able to set a new career high in goals (33). Meanwhile, Pastrnak should cruise past the 60-point plateau, primarily setting up helpers on Marchand’s gifted offense.
Boston’s answer to their opponent’s third line on any given night? Danton Heinen.
The rookie should amass 16 goals and 36– 36!– assists (52 points) in his first full NHL season.
Looking further down the lines, Tim Schaller should reach the 20-point plateau. As a fourth liner. The rest of the fourth line? Sean Kuraly should reach 15 points. Noel Acciari should notch 11 points.
On defense, Zdeno Chara and Charlie McAvoy should put up respectable numbers for their age groups while Torey Krug continues his venture in the “live or die by the sword” life.
Krug is on pace for 51 points this season, which would match his career year of… …last season. The only problem is when he has a bad night, he has a bad night. Still, his scoring and puck moving abilities far outweigh some of his drawbacks. His counterpart, however, is in the midst of a sophomore slump.
Brandon Carlo hasn’t been great. Fear not though, he’s still a top-four defenseman moving forward. The future of the Bruins blue line is contingent upon McAvoy leading the charge with Carlo developing more of a shutdown style. Though he is only projected to score one goal this season, his offense isn’t the main focus.
His plus-minus, however, should be. Carlo has a plus-11 entering Tuesday night. He’s projected to be a plus-14. For someone that’s averaging almost 20 minutes a night a plus-3 differential in the last 22 games of the season should be a bit of a concern considering Boston’s overall improvement in goal scoring from last season to this season.
Consider giving Nick Holden a shot, Bruce Cassidy, if Carlo’s condition worsens. Conversely, give Matt Grzelcyk a try on the second pair, since he’s already on pace for a better season than Carlo.
In goal, Tuukka Rask is best limited to between 55-60 games and it’s looking like this year will keep him in that sweet spot. You’ve been warned, other 30 teams in the NHL.
Rask’s projected 2.21 goals against average and .927 save percentage rank 2nd and 3rd in his career in seasons with at least 41 games played.
Meanwhile, the real Anton Khudobin has decided to show up again. He’s a backup goaltender disguising himself as “having a ridiculous season”, well, until recently at least. A forecasted 2.44 GAA and .920 SV% isn’t the worst thing for a backup goaltender, but it doesn’t scream “is there a goaltending controversy in Boston?” (which, for the record, there never was since Tim Thomas‘s departure).
Khudobin filled in well at the beginning of the season when it mattered, but his luck has slowed. He’s performed his role well enough to earn another year in black-and-gold if Bruins general manager, Don Sweeney, chooses to send him a new contract for another year while Zane McIntyre and Dan Vladar develop in the system (or Jeremy Swayman down the road).
We see it every year. There is always one fan-base screaming TANK… TANK…TANK…
All NHL programs have had their weak moments. Times when fans question management and coaches; times when players request trades or refuse to renew contracts; times when teams literally couldn’t buy a win if they wanted to. So what is the response to these moments? General managers have one of two decisions to make: Get to work and fix the problem now, or sit back and warm your hands over the dumpster fire that will continue.
Serious problems within organizations don’t simply go way. Sure every team faces a slump every now and again, but I’m talking about real, legitimate issues. Maybe it’s a coach that doesn’t fit, a lack of roster depth, or internal conflicts among players. These are the types of concerns that management must deal with if they expect to be contenders, or just have a winning season for that matter.
So what is the solution? In order to answer that, take a look at how the Edmonton Oilers and the New York Rangers attempted to right their ship. Both methods can be classified as tanking, but there is definitely a right way to do it.
So tanking… It should never be the goal to lose a hockey game, plain and simple. Even if a team is in the toilet, they should respect the sport of hockey enough to go out and give their best effort. Even from a management perspective, don’t think that they are trying to lose games intentionally. It is more so the fact that by making the decision to do nothing, they are prolonging their problems, which leads to tank mode. The best example of this is the historically bad run of the Edmonton Oilers.
Most people may not realize this, but from 2009-’10 to ’15-’16, this organization did not have a winning season. Yes, their drought really was that long. Seven season’s worth of pain and agony for their fan-base, which unfortunately has picked right back up this year. First-overall pick after first-overall pick and they could not do anything right.
Their “saviors” include Taylor Hall (gone, New Jersey Devils), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov (gone, Colorado Avalanche), and Connor McDavid. Two of those four were completely useless for them and really only McDavid plays like a true first-overall draft pick. Their method of tanking was so extreme because they solely depended on lottery draft picks to revive their club
. In the 2012-’13 season, they didn’t make a single trade to receive additional draft picks in return. The last time they traded for a first-rounder? The ’14-’15 season when they shipped David Perron to the Penguins. During the 15-16 season, the Oilers made two terrible deals for poor the situation that they were in. They sent three draft picks (2nd, 3rd, and 5th) to the Rangers for Cam Talbot. Granted, he’s had a couple good seasons for them, but he’s now 30 years old and his GAA has crept over 3.00 this season. The worst deal though? They sent a first-round and second-round pick to the Islanders for… *Drum Roll*… Griffin Reinhart. That 16th-overall pick turned into rookie sensation Mathew Barzal, who is currently leading the Calder Trophy race. If I haven’t caused Edmonton fans enough pain, Reinhart isn’t even on their roster anymore.
Big deals involving big names need to happen. Key players need to go when the time is right and when their stock is at its highest. You obviously want to keep the guys with franchise tags, but others need to be put on the trading block. It may hurt in the short-run, but you can quickly build a pile of prospects and picks to assure that the future is bright. Growing pains are something that all organizations will inevitably go through, but sitting around and waiting for your first-overall pick to come should never be the answer.
The New York Rangers are not the type of organization to watch problems and twiddle their thumbs. Although typically a playoff team, this season they found themselves in an interesting situation. They have had a roller coaster of a year, with moments of promise, but during the second half of the season, they have been in a state of decline. An aging goaltender and a lack of scoring has them searching for answers. Their management decided it was time for a rebuild and I believe they are in the process of doing it the right way.
They could have chosen to simply tank and pick up a lottery draft pick, but instead, management went into fire sale mode. It wasn’t out of the realm of possibility that a team currently sitting seventh from the bottom of the NHL couldn’t creep down into a lottery pick, but why wait to make necessary changes? Over the course of the year, the Rangers have completed nine trades. They have racked up a total of seven draft picks, including three first-round selections (Arizona – 2017, Boston – 2018, and Tampa Bay – 2018). Their recent transactions show they may be pulling out of the playoff race for this season, but plan to reload for the immediate future.
Some people are scratching their heads as to why Jeff Gorton decided to give up both Rick Nash and Ryan McDonagh at the trade deadline. Mixing in Michael Grabner and J.T. Miller, those are some heavy names to throw around in trade deals, especially considering McDonagh was taking care of captain duties for t
he Rangers. The casual fan must realize that these types of deals are necessary and, honestly, if it all pans out for them, the Rangers will have won their deadline deals. The goal for the Bruins and the Lightning is to win a Stanley Cup. Anything short of this, they just gave up coveted draft picks for players that may or may not help them in the future. Particularly, if Nash, a soon-to-be free agent, leaves Boston, the Rangers will have received three players and two draft picks for a guy that was likely to walk on them.
The New York Rangers took a chance, a shot in the dark you may call it. They did give away quality players, but their “tank” will be nothing close to the miserable years the Edmonton Oilers experienced. If their scouting and recruiting staff can pick the right guys, they could be a contender once again in two or three years. With some space in their salary cap, they could pick up another player or two in free agency that will help turn things around. Even just next season, with the additions of prospects like Ryan Lindgren, Libor Hajek, and Yegor Rykov, they could see big improvements.
This is the moral of the story and the lesson that fans must learn. If rosters get blown up the right way, things do work themselves out in the end. By keeping players around to “stay competitive,” you’re left with a mediocre team that has no shot at winning the Stanley Cup. When it comes to this business, that should be the only goal. Playing for a playoff spot or to finish above 0.500 isn’t going to help an organization in the long run. It’s a hard pill to swallow, but with that in mind, management must do whatever it takes to have a chance at a championship, even if that opportunity is down the road.
In a series of small, irrelevant moves, Arizona Coyotes GM John Chayka capped off his 2018 Trade Deadline shopping list by acquiring F Pierre-Cedric Labrie, D Trevor Murphy and F Derek Army in a minor swap with the Nashville Predators. In return, the Coyotes sent F Tyler Gaudet and D John Ramage.
Labrie, 31, has two goals and three assists (five points) in 46 career NHL games. He has 5-7–12 totals in 50 games this season for the Milwaukee Admirals (AHL).
A native of Baie-Comeau, Québec, the 6’3″, 226-pound forward will undoubtedly report to the Tucson Roadrunners.
Murphy, 22, has yet to appear in an NHL game. The 5’10, 180-pound native of Windsor, Ontario has 8-18–26 totals in 48 games for Milwaukee this season. Already in his third professional season, Murphy will likely join Labrie in Tucson.
Army, 26, has yet to appear in an NHL game. He has one goal and four assists (five points) in 22 games for the Admirals and 7-12–19 totals in 21 games for the Wheeling Nailers (ECHL) this season.
A native of North Kingstown, Rhode Island, the 5’11”, 170-pound center will report to Tucson with Labrie and Murphy.
Gaudet, 24, has 11-11–22 totals in 48 games for the Roadrunners this season.
A fourth-year pro, the Hamilton, Ontario native has 29 goals and 48 assists (77 points) in 227 career AHL games in Arizona’s system (over the years in Tucson, Springfield and Portland).
The 6’3″, 205-pound forward will join Milwaukee.
Ramage, 27, has appeared in two career NHL games (one with the Calgary Flames and one with the Columbus Blue Jackets) in his professional career. He has yet to score a point and has not played in the NHL since the 2015-16 season.
In 45 games with Tucson and Cleveland this season, the Mississauga, Ontario native has four goals and eight assists (12 points).
The 6-foot, 190-pound defenseman was originally drafted by the Flames in the 4th round (103rd overall) of the 2010 NHL Entry Draft. He’ll report to the Admirals.
The Colorado Avalanche traded D Chris Bigras to the New York Rangers in exchange for D Ryan Graves on Monday in what was otherwise a quiet trade deadline for Avalanche GM Joe Sakic.
Graves, 22, has four goals and seven assists (11 points) in 57 games as an alternate captain with the Hartford Wolf Pack this season. The Yarmouth, Nova Scotia native has 21-41–62 totals in 207 career AHL games.
The 6’5″, 226-pound defenseman has yet to appear in an NHL game and was originally drafted by the Rangers in the 4th round (110th overall) of the 2013 NHL Entry Draft.
He will report to the San Antonio Rampage.
Bigras, 23, has one assist in 15 games with the Avalanche this season. He has one career NHL goal and three assists in 46 NHL games. In 20 games with the Rampage (AHL), Bigras has 1-5–6 totals this season.
The 6’1″, 190-pound, Orillia, Ontario native made his NHL debut on January 14, 2016 and was originally drafted by Colorado in the 2nd round (32nd overall) of the 2013 NHL Entry Draft.
Boston Bruins general manager, Don Sweeney, apparently wasn’t done after acquiring Nick Holden earlier in February and Rick Nash on Sunday. The Bruins GM was on the hunt for even more depth and that’s just what he got.
The Chicago Blackhawks traded F Tommy Wingels to the Boston Bruins in exchange for a conditional 5th round pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. The draft pick involved becomes a 4th round selection if Boston advances past the First Round of the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs or if the Bruins re-sign Wingels.
Wingels, 29, has seven goals and five assists in 57 games this season for Chicago.
The 6-foot, 200-pound, Evanston, Illinois native was signed by the Blackhawks as a free agent on July 1, 2017 after splitting last season with the San Jose Sharks and Ottawa Senators.
He spent his first six NHL season with the Sharks and notched career highs in all offensive categories in 2013-14 with 16 goals, 22 assists and 38 points in 77 games.
In 430 career NHL games with the Blackhawks, Senators and Sharks, Wingels has amassed 60 goals and 78 assists (138 points). He has two goals and six assists (eight points) in 54 career Stanley Cup Playoff games.
He was originally drafted by the Sharks in the 6th round (177th overall) of the 2008 NHL Entry Draft and returns to the Commonwealth of Massachusetts as part of this trade since his AHL playing days as a member of the Worcester Sharks from 2010-12.
As a result of the trade, Chicago now has nine picks in the 2019 Draft, including two selections in the 5th round and two selections in the 7th round.
Some guy named “Future Considerations” is going to be spending time in Ohio for however long his contract is.
The Columbus Blue Jackets sent F Carter Camper to the Arizona Coyotes for future considerations on Monday.
Camper, 29, has 13-29–42 totals in 53 American Hockey League games this season with the Cleveland Monsters. He has one career NHL goal in three career NHL games with the Boston Bruins in 2011-12.
The 5’9″, 176-pound signed as an undrafted free agent with the Boston Bruins after completing four-years at Miami University in Ohio. A native of Cleveland, Ohio, Camper was an AHL All-Star in 2012 and has 84 goals and 227 assists (311 points) in 428 career AHL games with the Monsters, Tucson Roadrunners, Albany Devils, Hershey Bears, Binghamton Senators, Springfield Falcons and Providence Bruins.
As a result of this trade, Columbus leads in future considerations at the 2018 NHL trade deadline.
As all the hype surrounding other big name defensemen came and went, the Montreal Canadiens were quietly at work retooling their backend.
The Habs acquired D Mike Reilly from the Minnesota Wild in exchange for a 5th round pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft (originally from the Washington Capitals) as part of Monday’s NHL Trade Deadline festivities.
Reilly, 24, has two goals and eight assists (ten points) in 38 games this season for the Wild. Since breaking into the NHL in the 2015-16 season, Reilly has amassed 4-14–18 totals in 84 career games played.
The 6’2″, 195-pound, Chicago, Illinois native has yet to appear in any postseason action. He was originally drafted by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the 4th round (98th overall) of the 2011 NHL Entry Draft.
As a result of the trade Minnesota now has seven picks in the 2019 Draft including two in the 5th round. The Wild have eight picks in the upcoming 2018 Draft this June in Dallas– including three selections in the 3rd round and two in the 5th.
Down the Frozen River 
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