Columbus Blue Jackets General Manager Jarmo Kekalainen checked everything off his shopping list, both in the days leading up to and including the 2019 NHL Trade Deadline.
Kekalainen got a number one center on Friday in Matt Duchene, he added a quality top-nine forward in Ryan Dzingel on Saturday, added depth in the crease with Keith Kinkaid early Monday morning, then completed the puzzle among current NHLers in a transaction with the New York Rangers on Monday afternoon.
The Blue Jackets acquired Adam McQuaid from the Rangers in exchange for Julius Bergman, a 2019 4th round pick and a 2019 7th round pick.
McQuaid, 32, was originally drafted in the 2nd round (55th overall) by Columbus in the 2005 NHL Draft, but was traded to the Boston Bruins on May 16, 2007.
He went on to become a solid top-six defender with the Bruins, winning the Stanley Cup in 2011, while remaining a stay-at-home, shot blocking machine.
John Tortorella is going to like having him around in the defensive zone.
For the first time since being drafted by the Blue Jackets, McQuaid will have a chance to suit up in Columbus red, white and blue.
In 36 games for the Rangers this season, he has two goals and three assists (five points), with a plus-three rating and 33 penalty minutes.
Hampered by injuries in his final season with Boston, McQuaid amassed 1-3–4 totals in 38 games with the Bruins in 2017-18 and has 15-56–71 totals in 498 career NHL games with New York and Boston.
In 68 career Stanley Cup Playoff games, he has three goals and eight assists (11 points) along with a plus-13 rating and 30 penalty minutes.
McQuaid scored the only goal in Boston’s series clinching sweep of the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2013 Eastern Conference Final and had four assists in the B’s 2011 Stanley Cup championship.
He should slide in place of Scott Harrington or Dean Kukan down the stretch for Columbus and help bring some vital postseason experience, along with veteran leadership, to the Blue Jackets blue line.
Bergman, 23, was previously acquired by Columbus from the Ottawa Senators on Feb. 22nd as part of the Duchene trade and appeared in 33 American Hockey League games with the Belleville Senators this season prior to being assigned to the Cleveland Monsters (before being traded once again).
The young defender had six assists with Belleville and has 16-51–67 totals in 223 career AHL games with the Worcester Sharks, San Jose Barracuda and Belleville.
He was originally drafted by the San Jose Sharks in the 2nd round (46th overall) of the 2014 NHL Draft.
With the addition of a 4th round and 7th round pick in this year’s draft, the Rangers now have ten picks in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft in June.
Vegas Golden Knights General Manager George McPhee made the biggest splash at the annual NHL Trade Deadline, acquiring Mark Stone and Tobias Lindberg from the Ottawa Senators in exchange for Erik Brannstrom, Oscar Lindberg and a 2020 2nd round pick (originally belonging to the Dallas Stars).
In the grand scheme of things, Ottawa completes the circle of assets for Marc Methot, as the Golden Knights claimed the defender from the Senators in the 2017 Expansion Draft, then traded Methot to the Stars for Dylan Ferguson and a 2020 2nd round pick.
Oh, also, the Sens got rid of their top three scorers in a span of three days leading up to and including the deadline day itself.
But for Vegas, Stone, 26, joins the Golden Knights riding a career-high 28 goals and 34 assists (62 points) in 59 games played this season. He’s reached the 20-goal plateau in five consecutive seasons and had a career-high 42 assists last season, amassing 20-42–62 totals in 58 games.
Short of Alex Ovechkin‘s ability to score almost 50 goals a season for the last decade (basically), Stone is perhaps the most consistent goal scorer– and he’s only just reaching the arch of his prime.
As such, Vegas was quick to get Stone to agree to terms on a contract extension that he cannot technically sign until March 1st. The expected deal will be an eight-year contract worth $9.500 million per season, as first reported by TSN’s Bob McKenzie.
Stone has 123-188–311 totals in 366 career NHL games with Ottawa and five goals and eight assists (13 points) in 27 career postseason games. He was originally drafted by the Senators in the 6th round (178th overall) of the 2010 NHL Draft.
He’ll immediately make an impact on the first line alongside Jonathan Marchessault and, pending-RFA, William Karlsson, while Max Pacioretty, Paul Stastny and Alex Tuch continue to round-out Vegas’ top-six forwards.
Should the Golden Knights start to peak at the right time, they’ll look to be as much of a force– if not better– than they were last season in their run to the 2018 Stanley Cup Final.
Tobias Lindberg, meanwhile, rejoins the Golden Knights family after previously being acquired by Vegas– along with a 2018 6th round pick– in a trade with the Toronto Maple Leafs for Calvin Pickard on Oct. 6, 2017.
The 23-year-old spent the entire 2017-18 season with the Chicago Wolves (AHL), but was later traded to the Pittsburgh Penguins on Feb. 23, 2018. On Dec. 5, 2018, Lindberg was once again on the move, this time being traded to the Senators.
He has appeared in six career NHL games with the Maple Leafs during the 2015-16 season and recorded two assists in that span. He had 5-7–12 totals in 34 AHL games with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins and Belleville Senators this season.
While Oscar Lindberg, 27, is a current NHL roster player in the deal, the biggest piece in return to the Senators is Brannstrom.
The 19-year-old defender was drafted by the Golden Knights in the 1st round (15th overall) of the 2017 NHL Entry Draft and recorded seven goals and 21 assists (28 points) in 41 games with the Wolves this season.
He also had 2-2–4 totals in five preseason games for Vegas this season and most recently captained Team Sweden in the 2019 IIHF World Junior Championship to a perfect 4-0-0-0 preliminary round record, while leading all defenders in the tournament in scoring with four goals in five games.
In the long run, Brannstrom might be the perfect replacement for Erik Karlsson (traded in the offseason to the San Jose Sharks) on Ottawa’s blue line as a puck moving, offensive minded, defender.
The elder Lindberg, on the other hand, is in his sixth professional season, having recorded 12 points (four goals, eight assists) in 35 games this season for the Golden Knights.
In his career, Lindberg has 34-37–71 totals in 232 games with Vegas and the New York Rangers. He was claimed from the Rangers in the 2017 Expansion Draft by the Golden Knights and has three goals and two assists (five points) in 17 career Stanley Cup Playoff games.
He was originally drafted by the Phoenix Coyotes (now Arizona Coyotes) in the 2nd round (57th overall) of the 2010 NHL Draft.
While Sens fans may be disappointed to see the last of their top scorers be dealt to a playoff contender, at least the return on the Stone deal was close to what it should’ve actually been compared to previous high-profile trades out of Ottawa.
Though they really could’ve gotten at least another draft pick, if not a first round pick in this deal for someone of Stone’s caliber.
Monday afternoon, Colorado Avalanche General Manager Joe Sakic addressed a need in a deal with Florida Panthers General Manager Dale Tallon.
Sakic needed a third line center and he only needed to go down the hallway to find one. No, really, Colorado and Florida were facing each other Monday night, so the logistics of the trade were pretty simple.
Colorado acquired Derick Brassard and a conditional 2020 6th round pick from Florida in exchange for a 2020 3rd round pick. If Brassard re-signs with the Avalanche, Colorado will not receive Florida’s 6th round pick in 2020.
Brassard, 31, has ten goals and nine assists (19 points) in 50 games for the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Panthers this season. He was acquired by Florida on Feb. 1st and have 1-3–4 totals in 10 games with the Panthers prior to being traded twice in the same season for the second year in-a-row.
Originally drafted in the 1st round (6th overall) by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the 2006 NHL Draft, Brassard has 172-275–447 totals in 766 career NHL games with the Blue Jackets, New York Rangers, Ottawa Senators, Penguins and Panthers.
He has 23 goals and 36 assists (59 points) in 90 career Stanley Cup Playoff appearances and helped lead Canada with 11 points (five goals, six assists) to the gold medal at the 2016 IIHF World Championship.
Though being traded a bunch of times can get tiring, there’s always one thing that can be pulled away from it– you’re in demand.
As long as there’s a GM out there that wants you on their team, that’s a good sign. Right now, Sakic wants Brassard on his team.
He’ll fit in with Tyson Jost and Matt Calvert as an anchoring presence down the middle to provide some much needed depth in the Avs lineup that– should they make the postseason– might just get them into the Second Round at least.
As for Florida, Tallon now owns two 3rd round picks in the 2020 NHL Draft. Should the Panthers figure things out in the offseason, that extra pick on hand might be just enough to attract a larger return at next season’s trade deadline.
Of course, if Florida is content with their current plan– whatever that may be– or fails to bring in some big talent in the offseason, then stockpiling 2020 Draft picks isn’t a terrible idea.
Next year’s draft looks like it’ll be deeper than this coming offseason’s draft class.
Columbus Blue Jackets General Manager Jarmo Kekalainen was active on Monday, first adding depth in the crease, having acquired goaltender, Keith Kinkaid, from the New Jersey Devils in exchange for a 2022 5th round pick.
Kinkaid, 29, has a 15-18-6 record, 3.66 goals against average and ,891 save percentage in 41 games played this season playing behind a lackluster Devils defense.
Sergei Bobrovsky‘s 2.75 GAA and .908 SV% in 45 games played keeps him ahead of Kinkaid as the Blue Jackets starter, however Kinkaid provides some healthy competition for the role of the backup goaltender down the stretch as Joonas Korpisalo‘s 3.07 GAA and .896 SV% in 21 games played hasn’t been ideal.
Kinkaid has a 64-55-17 record with a 2.90 GAA and .906 SV% in 151 career games with New Jersey since making his NHL debut in the 2012-13 season.
He has a career-high three shutouts this season and led the United States to a bronze medal at the 2018 IIHF World Championship, where he posted a 2.29 GAA and .912 SV% in nine games.
It’s a low risk, high reward transaction for Columbus, as Kekalainen only gave up a 5th round pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, despite ridding his organization of nearly every selection they’ll have in the 2019 Draft by Monday’s 3 p.m. ET trade deadline.
No, seriously, the Blue Jackets have their own 3rd round pick and Calgary’s 7th round pick in this June’s Draft.
Last season, the Winnipeg Jets added Paul Stastny from the St. Louis Blues for their deep run into the 2018 Western Conference Finals.
Though things came up short in five games to the Vegas Golden Knights– who would go on to sign Stastny in free agency– the Jets are ready to go at it again and push further.
This season, Winnipeg has acquired Kevin Hayes from the New York Rangers in exchange for Brendan Lemieux, a 2019 1st round pick and a conditional 2022 4th round pick.
The Jets’ 2019 1st round pick in the trade is Top-3 lottery protected on the off chance Winnipeg skids off the runway to the postseason over the next month. If that happens, the Rangers will receive Winnipeg’s 2020 1st round pick instead.
If the Jets win the 2019 Stanley Cup Final, then New York will receive Winnipeg’s 2022 4th round pick.
Hayes, 26, is a native of Dorchester, Massachusetts and has 14 goals and 28 assists (42 points) in 51 games this season for the Rangers. Hs has 87-129–216 totals in 361 career games with New York and was originally drafted by the Chicago Blackhawks in the 1st round (24th overall) of the 2010 NHL Draft.
As with last season’s acquisition of Stastny, Hayes adds to the strength down the middle for Winnipeg’s top-six forwards, likely suiting up on the second line with Kyle Connor and Nikolaj Ehlers.
Hayes is a pending-UFA at season’s end with a cap hit of $5.175 million.
Lemieux, 22, has nine goals and two assists (11 points) in 44 games with the Jets this season and currently leads NHL rookies in penalty minutes with 64.
Originally drafted by the Buffalo Sabres in the 2nd round (31st overall) of the 2014 NHL Draft, Lemieux made his NHL debut with the Jets on Oct. 20, 2017 after previously being dealt to Winnipeg on Feb. 11, 2015 as part of the Sabres/Jets Tyler Myers–Evander Kane trade.
In 53 career games, Lemieux has 10-2–12 totals with a plus-12 rating and 85 penalty minutes. He is a pending-RFA at the end of the season.
New York currently has five picks in the first two rounds of the 2019 NHL Entry Draft.
Early on Monday morning, while most people were asleep in their beds, comfortably under their covers, the San Jose Sharks and Detroit Red Wings completed a trade.
Detroit sent Gustav Nyquist to the Sharks in exchange for a 2019 2nd round pick and a conditional 2020 3rd round pick.
San Jose will sent the Red Wings the lower of the Sharks or Florida Panthers’ 2019 2nd round picks and the conditional 2020 3rd round pick can become a 2020 2nd round pick if the Sharks reach the 2019 Stanley Cup Final or if Nyquist re-signs this offseason.
The Red Wings retained 30% of Nyquist’s salary ($1.425 million retained) in the transaction.
Nyquist, 28, has 16 goals and 33 assists (49 points) with the Red Wings this season in 62 games played and 125-170–295 totals in 481 career NHL games with Detroit.
He was originally drafted by the Red Wings in the 4th round (121st overall) of the 2008 NHL Draft and represented Sweden at the 2014 Winter Games in Sochi.
San Jose’s offense has been hot as of late (averaging 3.73 goals per fame in the month of February), but not nearly as hot as their defenders have been all season with Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson anchoring the blue line.
Nyquist solidifies the Sharks’ top-nine forwards and will likely suit up alongside Joe Thornton and Kevin Labanc, while the Red Wings have bolstered their potential prospect pool with 14 selections in the first three rounds of the next three year’s of drafts (2019, 2020 and 2021).
Detroit currently has one 1st round pick, three 2nd round picks and one 3rd round pick in the 2019 Draft, as well as one 1st round pick, two 2nd round picks and two 3rd round picks in the 2020 Draft.
Below is a quick recap of all the trades that officially occurred on Monday prior to the National Hockey League’s 3 p.m. ET trade deadline.
Early Monday morning the San Jose Sharks acquired F Gustav Nyquist from the Detroit Red Wings in exchange for a 2019 2nd round pick and a conditional 2020 3rd round pick. The 2020 3rd round pick becomes a 2nd round pick if the Sharks reach the Stanley Cup Final or Nyquist re-signs.
Detroit retained 30% of Nyquist’s salary in the transaction. MORE
The Anaheim Ducks completed a minor swap with the Ottawa Senators exchanging F Brian Gibbons for D Patrick Sieloff.
G Keith Kinkaidwas traded by the New Jersey Devils to the Columbus Blue Jackets in exchange for a 2022 5th round pick. MORE
The New York Rangers sent F Kevin Hayesto the Winnipeg Jets in exchange for F Brendan Lemieux, a 2019 1st round pick and a conditional 2022 4th round pick.
Winnipeg’s 2019 1st round pick in the trade is Top-3 lottery protected. MORE
The Florida Panthers traded F Tomas Jurco to the Carolina Hurricanes for future considerations.
F Cliff Pu was traded by the Carolina Hurricanes to the Florida Panthers for future considerations.
F Derick Brassard was traded by the Florida Panthers along with a conditional 2020 6th round pick to the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for a 2020 3rd round pick.
If Brassard re-signs with the Avalanche, Colorado will not receive Florida’s 6th round pick. MORE
The New York Rangers traded D Adam McQuaid to the Columbus Blue Jackets in exchange for D Julius Bergman, a 2019 4th round pick and a 2019 7th round pick.MORE
The Calgary Flames acquired D Oscar Fantenberg from the Los Angeles Kings in exchange for a conditional2020 4th round pick.
F Mikael Granlund was traded by the Minnesota Wild to the Nashville Predators in exchange for F Kevin Fiala.
F Mark Stone and F Tobias Lindberg were traded by the Ottawa Senators to the Vegas Golden Knights for D Erik Brannstrom, F Oscar Lindberg and a 2020 2nd round pick (originally belonging to DAL).
Stone has agreed on an eight-year extension with Vegas worth $9.500 million per season, but cannot sign it until March 1st. MORE
The Nashville Predators acquired F Wayne Simmonds from the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for F Ryan Hartman and a conditional 2020 4th rounddraft pick.
If Nashville wins one round of the playoffs, the pick becomes a 2020 3rd round pick.
D Michael Del Zotto was traded to the St. Louis Blues in exchange for a 2019 6th round draft pick in return to the Anaheim Ducks.
F Marcus Johansson was shipped from the New Jersey Devils to the Boston Bruins in exchange for a 2019 2nd round pick and a 2020 4th round pick. New Jersey retained 40% of Johansson’s salary in the trade.
The Winnipeg Jets traded a 2020 7th round pick to the Minnesota Wild for F Matt Hendricks.
Coming off a 3-2 shootout loss to the Boston Bruins on Wednesday, the Vegas Golden Knights (32-25-5, 69 points, 3rd in the Pacific Division) have 20 games remaining in the 2018-19 regular season.
These aren’t your father’s Golden Knights, as production is down from their inaugural season in just their 2nd season of existence.
Though Marc-Andre Fleury (29-18-5 record, 2.60 goals against average, .908 save percentage in 52 games played) remains Vegas’ starter on an almost nightly basis, backup goaltender, Malcolm Subban (3-6-0, 2.76 GAA, .912 SV% in 10 GP) has struggled to carry his own weight.
Despite bringing in Paul Stastny via free agency and Max Pacioretty via trade, the Golden Knights haven’t been immune to the injury bug this season.
Stastny and Pacioretty themselves have joined Reilly Smith and others throughout the lineup on the injured reserve or out of playing action for various points of the season.
While the Pacific Division title might be out of reach for Vegas this season, a divisional spot in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs is all but assured as long as the floor doesn’t fallout from underneath Gerard Gallant and his players.
Of note, the Arizona Coyotes are emerging once again with a late season push for the playoffs– and this time around, they’re doing it without their starting goaltender, Antti Raanta (out for the season due to injury).
Plus the Vancouver Canucks are still in contention and, well, that’s about it, realistically among Pacific Division teams that still have a chance for the last divisional spot and/or a Western Conference wild card berth.
Anyway, back to the Golden Knights.
Here’s a look at the latest Vegas forecast– keeping in mind there are many variables that can and will effect the final outcome, such as injuries and/or being called up, assigned, traded, lucky or unlucky.
This forecast is just an educated guess. It’s a glimpse of what could be or could’ve been by the end of the regular season.
As always, my degree is in communication– not math– and hockey is naturally steeped in context and holistic unpredictability. Nothing can account for sheer puck luck, the odd bounce or a blown call.
If a player reaches the expected outcome, they’ve met expectations. If said player exceeds the forecasted stats, they’ve exceeded expectations (naturally). Of course, if a player does not perform, then they did not live up to expectations.
On a game-to-game basis, whatever’s on the scoresheet can indicate general trends that can be further broken down into an educated forecast.
At best, it’s a guess. At worst, well, it doesn’t really matter– it’s not like Golden Knights General Manager George McPhee is reading this and making his roster decisions based on what’s here, right?
If he is, I’d like a job, please. Thanks.
Vegas Golden Knights Forecast Through 62 Games (20 Games Remaining)
Among forwards, Vegas’ consistent first line last season of Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson and Smith hasn’t had as much consistent luck and skill this season.
Though Smith has battled injury this season, Marchessault remains one of the Golden Knights most consistent performers expected to lead his team in goals (25) and points (54) with 25-29–54 expected totals.
Now what about Karlsson?
Good question, what about him? Things haven’t gone exactly as planned in terms of capitalizing on his breakout season last season with a new contract in the offseason and higher expectations for this season.
Karlsson’s bridge, one-year, extension last summer coming off the backs of a 43-goal season has only managed 18 goals thus far– including four goals in the last 22 games for the Golden Knights.
Given his current trend, Karlsson is expected to amass 21-23–44 totals. He’d be tied with Pacioretty for 2nd place in expected goals (21) and 3rd in expected points (44) on the roster, but nowhere near the emergent star in the making that he was last season.
While he very well could bounce back– similar to Smith in nature, following a good-year, bad-year, good-year, bad-year pattern– the phrase “what have you done for me yesterday” won’t help him in his next contract negotiation this summer unless McPhee gives him the benefit of the doubt.
Meanwhile, Alex Tuch is expected to finish the season with a career-high 20-33–53 expected totals.
That’s comforting to hear for a team that needs to rely on secondary scoring in the midst of a recession in primary production.
Tuch is expected to lead in assists (33), followed by Smith (30) and Marchessault (29), while Marchessault is destined to lead in points (54) over Tuch (53) and Karlsson (44).
On defense, Vegas’ blue line will finish off the season being led by Shea Theodore (11-21–32 expected totals), followed by Colin Miller (30 expected points) and Nate Schmidt (25 expected points despite missing the first 20 games of the season while serving a suspension for testing positive for a performance enhancing drug).
In net, Fleury looks like he’s bound to break under the weight of all the minutes he’s been playing and will play this season. A 2.74 expected GAA and .909 expected SV% is not starting goaltender material, unless we’re talking about Sergei Bobrovsky with the Columbus Blue Jackets or something.
But it’s not like Gallant can really count on his current backup to offset some of Fleury’s load. Subban’s expected 2.70 GAA and .912 SV% isn’t tremendous either.
If anything, it’s an indication that McPhee could help bolster his team with the acquisition of an extra goaltender by the trade deadline.
Someone like Ryan Miller, 38-years-old, could help steal some crucial points for the Golden Knights down the stretch if the San Jose Sharks aren’t already in the process of completing a trade for the goaltender with the Anaheim Ducks.
Growing pains are a fact of life– especially in sports– and Vegas is going through puberty already in its 2nd season. This season’s been full of highs, lows and awkward phases that hopefully will end in a glow up.
Otherwise we’ll all be looking back at this season shaking our heads at how it could pull off that much denim or something back in the day.
The Boston Bruins and the rest of the NHL are nearing the annual trade deadline. Through 60 games played, the Bruins are currently 2nd in the Atlantic Division with a 35-17-8 record (78 points) behind the Tampa Bay Lightning (46-11-4, 96 points).
Wednesday night, the B’s will play their 61st game of the season when they visit the Vegas Golden Knights (new forecast coming soon for that club too), but before they do that, here’s a quick review and a glimpse of what could be based on this latest forecast with 22 games remaining in the 2018-19 regular season for Boston.
After getting off to a quick start in October, despite a blowout on Opening Night, the Bruins fell into a bit of a lull in November and December.
Jaroslav Halak (15-9-4 record, 2.35 goals against average, .923 save percentage in 30 games played) helped carry the weight through November, before regressing towards the end of December into January. As long as the wins rolled in, the team was making progress.
Tuukka Rask (20-8-4, 2.45 GAA, .918 SV% in 33 GP) has not lost in regulation in his last 15 starts as the B’s carry a six-game winning streak into Vegas for Wednesday night’s matchup.
Though Halak is expected to start against the Golden Knights, Rask and his counterpart have formed a solid 1A/1B option for the Bruins all season long– considering league scoring is up and the B’s have allowed the 3rd fewest goals against (155) in the league, behind only the New York Islanders (138) and Dallas Stars (154).
The Bruins went 7-7-0 in December and improved to 6-3-3 in January.
Yes, I know that’s still a .500 win-percentage, but points percentage wise, that’s 14 out of 28 possible points in December and 15 out of a possible 24 points in January (progress!).
Yet, by the end of January and through all of February thus far, the B’s have been starting to reach another gear.
The first line has been consistent all year, while General Manager Don Sweeney is in search of the last missing piece among top-six forwards to complete the second line.
Meanwhile, Sweeney was working the trade deals on Wednesday, acquiring Charlie Coyle (10-18–28 totals in 60 games played this season, 91-151–242 totals in 479 career games) from the Minnesota Wild in exchange for Ryan Donato (3-6–9 totals in 34 games, 11-7–18 totals in 46 career NHL games) and a conditional 2019 5th round pick.
If the Bruins advance to the Second Round of the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs, then the 5th round pick becomes a 2019 4th round pick (originally belonging to the New York Rangers, previously acquired by the Bruins along with Steven Kampfer in exchange for Adam McQuaid on Sept. 11, 2018).
Coyle will boost Boston’s third line and can play second line minutes if necessary, but isn’t the end-all, be-all solution for a Cup run.
Anyway, without further ado, here’s a look at the latest Bruins forecast– keeping in mind there are many variables that can and will change things, like injuries and/or being called up, assigned, traded, lucky or unlucky.
This forecast is a glimpse at expected outcomes.
If a player does better, then they exceeded expectations. If said player does worse, then they didn’t meet expectations (for one reason or another).
My degree is in communication– not math– and hockey is naturally steeped in context and holistic unpredictability. Nothing can account for sheer puck luck, the odd bounce or a blown call.
Whatever’s on the scoresheet every night can indicate general trends that can be deciphered to make educated guesses.
Boston Bruins Forecast Through 60 Games Played (20 Games Remaining)
I really miss the days of making a nice gallery, but WordPress messed around with that feature…
First, I know what you’re thinking, “but Nick, how come you still have Donato on the roster still and haven’t included Coyle?”
There’s two parts to my answer: 1) I ran this forecast after the conclusion of Monday night’s, 6-5, overtime win against the San Jose Sharks, so 2) the Coyle-Donato trade was made early in the writing of this post, so Coyle’s forecast will be reflected at a later date.
Second, I know you’re also looking at Jake DeBrusk’s expected stats saying “uh, there’s only 20 games left, he can’t possibly score 21 more goals and amass 16 more assists for a total of 65 points this season” and you’re right.
With DeBrusk’s recent scoring stretch over the last 20 games, his latest forecast gives a bit of a look at what could have been if he hadn’t been going through streaks like he has.
The same can be applied to David Pastrnak’s expected 32-37–69 totals. Prior to getting injured, Pastrnak’s last forecast had him around the 40-goal plateau.
After his left thumb surgery– in addition to having missed the last few games, as well as his recent decline in goal scoring over the last 20 games– his numbers are more in line with what to expect when he returns, whenever that is.
At best, Pastrnak misses the “at least” two weeks he was supposed to miss, makes his return and picks up as close to where he left off as possible.
At worst, he only scores a few more goals this season after returning later than expected (in the best-case scenario), but is back to being his normal self in a postseason run.
Anyway, Boston’s offense looks like it’ll be led by Brad Marchand with 85 points on the season. Marchand also looks to lead the team in assists with 58 expected apples, topping Patrice Bergeron (49 expected assists), Torey Krug (48) and David Krejci (47).
In goal scoring, Pastrnak remains supreme with 32 expected goals, leading Bergeron (28 expected goals), Marchand (27) and Krejci (16).
On defense, Krug (9-48–57 expected totals) dominates the two-way aspect of the game from the blue line, despite missing a chunk of time due to injury earlier in the season.
Meanwhile, Charlie McAvoy (7-22–29 expected totals) and Matt Grzelcyk (2-18–20 expected totals) continue to be vital assets alongside their captain and anchor, 41-year-old (soon to be 42-years-old on March 18th), Zdeno Chara (5-11–16).
In goal, Rask is destined to settle in with a 2.37 GAA and a .921 SV%, while Halak backstops the team to a 2.40 GAA, as well as a .921 SV% himself.
That’s some consistent goaltending in the crease and plenty to smile about if Sweeney can add more offensive prowess in secondary scoring and perhaps add a depth blue line asset for the playoffs.
Whether you’re looking for love or looking to win the Stanley Cup, February is an active month.
Some teams are buying in on false promises that will ultimately end in heartbreak. Others are selling and living the single life.
In either case, most teams will be suited for a stretch run– ’til death do [them] part (or they miss out on the playoffs altogether or are eliminated in the postseason).
So let’s see if it’s a match between your team and finishing first in the divisional standings in this new forecast based on how the league standings were through January 31, 2019.
Before you scroll down to the tinder box that is known as the comment section and go bumbling on how wrong these numbers will be, keep in mind there’s no guarantees with any forecast.
It’s not always about the exact number of points expected on the season, but rather the general trends indicated or “educated” guesses that are shown.
The focus might be on the spread or positioning in the standings more than any specifics. Context is key and nothing’s impossible until it’s mathematically impossible.
Without further ado, it’s time to take a look at the potential dates available for this season.
Projected Standings After Four Months
Eastern Conference
Atlantic Division
p-Tampa Bay Lightning, 130 points (50 GP entering Feb. 1st)
x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 110 points (49 GP)
x-Montreal Canadiens, 104 points (51 GP)
wc1-Buffalo Sabres, 102 points (50 GP)
wc2-Boston Bruins, 97 points (51 GP)
Florida Panthers, 77 points (48 GP)
Detroit Red Wings, 67 points (51 GP)
Ottawa Senators, 66 points (50 GP)
In the Atlantic Division the Tampa Bay Lightning are flirting with the President’s Trophy and a 130 point season. But can they take home the best looking person in school or will the Calgary Flames have anything to say about it and steal their date? (more on that later)
The Toronto Maple Leafs are smitten with 2nd place in their division, but searching for the one to take them all the way (to the Cup). Is this the year that it finally happens?
While the Boston Bruins have been coming up short in sealing the deal (they went 6-3-3 in January, which was a marginal improvement from 7-7-0 in December), the Montreal Canadiens have been eyeing the last divisional spot in the Atlantic.
If the Buffalo Sabres can get over their recent dry spell, they’re sure to rebound well and land with the first wild card in the Eastern Conference– successfully reaching the postseason for the first time since 2011.
At the bottom of the division, it’s more of the same– the exact same (standings-wise) from last month.
Metropolitan Division
y-New York Islanders, 113 points (49 GP)
x-Pittsburgh Penguins, 99 points (50 GP)
x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 98 points (50 GP)
Washington Capitals, 93 points (50 GP)
Carolina Hurricanes, 89 points (50 GP)
New York Rangers, 79 points (50 GP)
Philadelphia Flyers, 73 points (51 GP)
New Jersey Devils, 68 points (50 GP)
Things are looking up for the New York Islanders as they continue to hookup with some top-notch strategy put forth by head coach, Barry Trotz. Robin Lehner has been stellar and everyone’s buying in on being accountable as a team.
Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins are in a long-term committed relationship with making the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but will this one bring another ring to it?
“Don’t go breaking my heart//I wouldn’t if I [actually] tried,” said Sergei Bobrovsky as he let down Columbus Blue Jackets fans with subpar goaltending, despite somehow clinching the last playoff spot in the Metropolitan Division.
The Stanley Cup looks like it will be in another’s arms given the recent stretch of play from the Washington Capitals as the team goes through a breakup with the postseason for 2019.
If things get steamy it’s only because the Carolina Hurricanes are storming and desperately making a charge to quench their postseason thirst.
There’s not much to be said about the bottom three teams in this division either. Even if Carter Hart is stealing hearts in the City of Brotherly Love. Swipe left.
Western Conference
Central Division
y-Winnipeg Jets, 116 points (51 GP)
x-Nashville Predators, 96 points (52 GP)
x-Dallas Stars, 86 points (50 GP)
Minnesota Wild, 86 points (50 GP)
Colorado Avalanche, 85 points (50 GP)
St. Louis Blues, 77 points (49 GP)
Chicago Blackhawks, 66 points (51 GP)
The Winnipeg Jets are soaring on cloud nine with the Central Division title this season as the Nashville Predators have hit some bumps in the road throughout the season.
It’s a rocky relationship for the Dallas Stars, Minnesota Wild and Colorado Avalanche in terms of playoff berths. The spread between the three teams in the latest forecast indicates it’s still anybody’s game and though the Stars are tagged as being above the cutoff line in this display, they aren’t safe and sound.
The St. Louis Blues are creeping their way into a playoff spot in reality, but things could very well go back to the way it was before Jordan Binnington came along as the right man to be number one in Blues fans’ hearts.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Blackhawks might as well consciously uncouple with their expendable assets by the end of the month– if not before.
Pacific Division
z-Calgary Flames, 123 points (51 GP)
x-Vegas Golden Knights, 108 points (52 GP)
x-San Jose Sharks, 103 points (52 GP)
wc1-Vancouver Canucks, 88 points (51 GP)
wc2-Arizona Coyotes, 87 points (50 GP)
Edmonton Oilers, 79 points (50 GP)
Anaheim Ducks, 74 points (51 GP)
Los Angeles Kings, 65 points (50 GP)
Things are heating up in Calgary as the Flames have not just been good– they’re really good. Calgary continues to surge into a definite number one seed in not just the Pacific Division, but the Western Conference as a whole.
What’s more impressive? The Flames are closing in on the Bolts in the President’s Trophy race. A few odd puck bounces going either way could really hamper what everyone thought Tampa’s all season long.
Meanwhile, the Vegas Golden Knights are feeling lucky as a rematch with the San Jose Sharks is looking more and more like it’s going to happen.
It’s a wild race for the wild card berths in the Western Conference, which means that the Vancouver Canucks and Arizona Coyotes could end up on either side of the fence, depending on what kind of dance partner they’re interested in acquiring at the trade deadline.
Is it time to buy, sell or continue to rebuild?
For the Edmonton Oilers, Anaheim Ducks and Los Angeles Kings, it’s time to rekindle the spark in their lives.
Down the Frozen River 
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