The DTFR crew discusses some of the impressive starts to the 2016-2017 regular season and predicts this year’s award winners without watching the rest of the season.
Author: Nick Lanciani
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2016-2017 Projections- ARI and BOS
By: Nick Lanciani
Below are my projections for both the Boston Bruins and Arizona Coyotes as they were before either team played a game (I know the season started already, but I didn’t have enough time in a day to compile all of these exactly as I wanted to because I’m a perfectionist). So without further ado, here are some projected stats.
Keep in mind, every stat is based off of a player’s entire career and may not reflect well with the other stats projected for this current season (a.k.a. goals + assists might not equal the number of points shown in the points category), because again, each stat is forecasted individually.
Italics indicates a player currently with their respective AHL affiliate. Underlined player stats indicate a player on the IR (which, admittedly, I’ll do my best to keep up with, but might not have perfect every time, so forgive me if I mistakenly label an injury or fail to label one entirely).
Also, I don’t mess with predicting anything for rookies until they’ve played a few NHL games, so if you’re looking for how well one of them will do for your team here, sorry. Unlike last season, I won’t be able to update everything after every 10 games, but I’ll try my best to keep things updated after every 20 games (or so). At the very least, I’ll be sure to update things halfway through the season (41 games) on this page and whenever I get around to it for individual player’s based on their performance on Twitter (as exhibited by my Brad Marchand and David Backes related tweets below from Thursday night).
Likewise, I might add more Corsi projections than just Corsi for%.
Arizona Coyotes Projections- Game 0 of 82
Coyotes forwards

Coyotes goalies

Corsi for% projections for Arizona roster skaters

*indicates that the current projection is regarded as unreliable based on previous career performance (in other words, it’s an outlier)
Boston Bruins Projections- Game 0 of 82
Bruins forwards

Bruins goalies

Corsi for% projections for Boston roster skaters

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Forever Archived 2015-2016 Stats
By: Nick Lanciani
So I’m in the process of changing up how I’ll present some projected stats this season and moving forward (for now, at least). Having said that, there’ll be a few changes to the way this page works. For starters, it’s no longer a page, technically speaking, but I’m sure you don’t want to be bored with website construction stuff. This season I will be tracking two teams, the Boston Bruins (predictably) and the Arizona Coyotes (because they follow us on Twitter, so it’s like we’re best friends and I’m doing them a favor). Also, if John Chayka sees this, then maybe he should hire me. Please. Someone. Hello?
With the increasingly large swath of data that I have to trudge through and the many things I have going on in life currently (like looking at Corsi Twitter data for a content analysis using grounded theory— you bet it’s a lot of fun), it’s looking like I will only be able to update the projections after every 20 games or so, instead of after every 10 games. I’d love to project stats for every player in the NHL someday, but alas…
I’ve already completed projections for one of the two teams mentioned above and will be finishing the other team up by the weekend, so I’ll retroactively post how both teams are supposed to perform this season after the first couple of games have been played.
For now, I’ll leave you all with a memory of the golden days of how I did things just last season.
How I used to run my projected stats…
Using Microsoft Excel I display just how much I don’t have a life on this page. After every ten games or so, I update my projections for every player currently on the Boston Bruins, compile the results on one document, and then display my findings here for you to determine if someone’s doing well or not. As an armchair GM you can always wish that someone would get traded, but maybe now you’ll have something to back those demands up.
I would have tried to compile projections for every team in the NHL this season, however, I simply do not have enough of time currently to commit to that. Hopefully sometime this summer I’ll have a few more teams up here.
I will update the Bruins projections after every ten games and leave all of my findings for your viewing pleasure and so you can make your own analysis as the season progresses.
(Just click on the chart for slightly improved quality).
2015-2016 Season Projections
Boston Bruins Projections After 80 of 82 Games Played

Boston Bruins Projections After 70 of 82 Games Played

Boston Bruins Projections After 60 of 82 Games Played

Boston Bruins Projections After 50 of 82 Games Played
(my data after 50 games played deleted itself :,( sorry for the inconvenience)
Boston Bruins Projections After 40 of 82 Games Played

Boston Bruins Projections After 30 of 82 Games Played

Boston Bruins Projections After 20 of 82 Games Played

Boston Bruins Projections After 10 of 82 Games Played
Boston Bruins Projections Before the Start of the 2015-2016 Season
All career numbers are taken into account in the determination of the projected outcome. In determining projected Corsi for% I average the player’s current Corsi for% with their remaining projected Corsi for%. For S%, I average a player’s current shooting percentage with their remaining S% projection, therefore, the S% typically will not reflect what one would get from dividing the projected goal total from the projected shot total for each player.
Players listed in italics are currently in the AHL with the Providence Bruins. A player that is currently on the injured reserve is reflected by an underline and an “IR” notation in the Games Played column. For players that have yet to play an NHL game with the Bruins this season, I made my best projections based on their career statistics and if they happened to miraculously play in all of the remaining games this season for Boston.
Also, please note that for goaltenders in this chart, I have not determined how to reflect projections accurately- other than basing all numbers on if the goalie played in every game remaining in the season. For a more accurate representation, I anticipate to use similar playing time from the 2014-2015 season to project the 2015-2016 season sometime, however I am in the process of transitioning all goalie stats to another page on this site.
And finally, the numbers for goalies probably won’t always add up right (if you’re analyzing the numbers that much), because again, I haven’t learned how to predict the unpredictable- goalies are weird anyways. Until I figure out how to deal with goaltenders in their own special way, I have a rather generic preview of how they might do.
As I mentioned above, I’m in the process of transitioning Nick’s Net into a page dedicated to goalie stats and projections for every goalie in the NHL, so I might just pull all goalie notes from this page in the near future.
– Nick Lanciani
P.S. For a look at the process, here’s a glimpse of the Excel spreadsheet I work with.
*Corsi% denotes Corsi for%
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Down the Frozen River Podcast #38- Fantasy Kraft Rookies
The Down the Frozen River crew discusses Kraft Hockeyville, fantasy hockey and what to expect from some rookies this season. Also included, an injury report. As always, stayed tuned for weekly coverage of the latest news and notes around the NHL every week on the Down the Frozen River Podcast.
Here’s the latest results of our rookie poll:
Finals: Who do you think will win the Calder (rookie of the year)?
— Down the FrozenRiver (@DTFrozenRiver) October 6, 2016
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Down the Frozen River Podcast #37- 2016-2017 Season Preview: Metropolitan Division
The Down the Frozen River crew fills you in on all of the biggest offseason moves in the Metropolitan Division and previews how each team in the division will do in the upcoming 2016-2017 season. Also discussed, Zach Boychuk and the 2016 World Cup of Hockey Final thoughts.
We recorded this on Friday and Monday, due to scheduling and technology issues, so Boychuk got released from his PTO with the Arizona Coyotes in the meantime. We’re all upset by that, but maybe now the prodigal son can return to the Charlotte Checkers (please sign him guys) and/or hang out with us in Charlotte. Hit us up, Mr. Boychuk.
Join Colby, Frank and Nick as they discuss several of the Metropolitan Division’s offseason’s biggest acquisitions and other tidbits of information. As always, stayed tuned for weekly coverage of the latest news and notes around the NHL every week on the Down the Frozen River Podcast.
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Flyers fan Fanelli is our crazed Philly [ph]an
By: Nick Lanciani
This season on Down the Frozen River we’re going to write some more feature stories, starting with ourselves, of course. Here’s one about DTFR member, Frank Fanelli.
A tall, young, bearded man ambles up to the door of a four-story brick building with a Philadelphia Flyers jacket on that makes him look like he should be behind the bench as the equipment manager, at least— if not athletic trainer— and approaches with a grin. We exchange pleasantries then head up to the Down the Frozen River studio to begin this interview.
Born in Arlington, Texas, Frank Fanelli has moved a total of seven times in 18 years. He’s lived in Texas, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and now currently resides in North Carolina, though he doesn’t remember much up until about New Jersey. Fanelli and his family have bounced around the country as his father’s job has called them to new and exciting lands within the United States.
The middle child, technically by 20 minutes, says he was reminded a lot when he was younger of the fact that his older twin sister was born first. Fanelli grew up in a household with two siblings, his older twin sister and a younger sister. He says they’ve always been pretty tight and have never argued much, but that they have always had a bit of healthy competition between the three of them.
While Fanelli and his family were living in Pennsylvania, he fell in love with hockey. Fanelli quickly became a Philadelphia Flyers fan when Mike Richards was with the team and playing in his prime, however, Fanelli’s love for the Flyers was not easily reciprocated by the people he was surrounded by. You see, he was a Flyers fan, living in Pittsburgh Penguins territory. Unlike the City of Brotherly Love, there’s no love in Pittsburgh. At least if you’re a Flyers fan.
Yet for Fanelli’s sake, he could take comfort in knowing that only his closest friends knew he was a Flyers fan and that “no one really [other than them] knew or would give me trash [otherwise] unless I wore a Flyers jersey.” Fanelli proudly wore Philadelphia apparel to Penguins-Flyers matchups at Mellon Arena growing up.
“People would lay into you and I wanted to say something back, but unfortunately I couldn’t. It bothered me, but I got used to it over the eight years of living there,” Fanelli recalled. He explained how the atmosphere of a Penguins vs. Flyers game is unlike any other he has experienced in that there’s usually a brawl, intense momentum swings, lead changes and lots of blown leads between the two teams. But that’s all part of the highs and lows of the sport.
One of the more memorable highs of the sport in Fanelli’s lifetime was when the Flyers went on to face the Chicago Blackhawks in the 2010 Stanley Cup Final. He explained the emotional rollercoaster of a ride that the then 13-year old version of himself was part of during the Flyers comeback in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals against the Boston Bruins that led to the unthinkable, though ultimately disappointing 2010 Stanley Cup Final run.
Despite the fact that the Flyers lost, Fanelli took residence in the holistic approach to hockey— the experience of the sport in one of its best forms, on one of its largest stages. Fanelli was at Game 1.
“I remember a lot— I probably won’t remember a lot when I’m 80 though,” Fanelli remarked. “My dad worked for Dick’s [Sporting Goods] at the time and got tickets from the NHL. We were sitting behind one of the nets.” Fanelli remembers the remarkable atmosphere of an Original Six arena, long dehydrated from a Stanley Cup run. “[Chicago’s] goal horn and ‘Chelsea Dagger’ got embedded in my mind. Usually when your team scores five goals, you expect them to win, but that wasn’t the case for the Flyers that night.”
Philadelphia dropped Game 1, 6-5. While leaving the United Center, Fanelli experienced some trash talk from the notoriously passionate Blackhawks fans, but he took it in stride as part of the road game experience.
Aside from attending Game 1 of the 2010 Stanley Cup Final, Fanelli’s other most enjoyable experience as a fan happened when he went to the 2012 Bridgestone NHL Winter Classic between the Philadelphia Flyers and the New York Rangers. Although, once again, Fanelli watched his team lose, the overall atmosphere of an outdoor NHL game as the home team made it that much better at the end of the day.
“The United Center [in 2010] had the best overall atmosphere, but the 2012 Winter Classic is definitely a close second,” Fanelli remarked as he then explained how he became a Flyers fan. “It’s because I played hockey at the time— I still do— but becoming a professional hockey player was something I wanted to be when I was five years old.”

Fanelli celebrates his favorite goal that he ever scored from his days of youth hockey. (Photo via Frank Fanelli) When Fanelli was young and just started to get into the sport, his eyes latched onto one Flyers forward in his prime— Mike Richards. There was just something about the way that Richards played that drew Fanelli to the TV for every game broadcast, combined with the style of play Philadelphia has long been accustomed to.
Brash, hard hitting, tough; the Broad Street Bullies have been shoving their weight around the NHL since 1967, but have been number one in the hearts of their city and fans forever, as the team has matched the work ethic of the citizens of Philadelphia— never give up. Fanelli admits to not being as “successful” as some players are growing up playing youth hockey, scoring many goals and mimicking their heroes, but his style of play has always had a role on any team. He doesn’t give up on a play and knows when to come in clutch— like the work ethic of many Flyers over the years.
For a while, Richards was Fanelli’s favorite player (and not just because 18 was Richards’ jersey number and Fanelli’s favorite number— though it was his favorite number before associating it with Richards ever since. “It just came naturally,” he exclaimed). He was devastated when Philadelphia traded their captain, Mike Richards, and Flyers prospect, Rob Bordson, to the Los Angeles Kings in June 2011.
Although the Flyers got Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn and the Kings’ 2012 2nd round pick in the deal, Fanelli was less than thrilled. In fact, Fanelli has had a few qualms to say about former Philadelphia GM, now President of the Flyers, Paul Holmgren’s time with the organization. Fanelli hated the Richards trade and wasn’t a fan when Holmgren traded Simon Gagne to the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for Matt Walker and a 2011 4th round pick in July 2010.
But by now, Fanelli’s used to the revolving door side of the business of hockey— and that’s helped grow his interest in the sport. Players come and players go— sometimes a lot quicker than you want, other times agonizingly too slow to watch as a fan. Prior to being a fan of Richards, Fanelli’s favorite Flyer was Daniel Briere. Since Mike Richards, it’s been Claude Giroux.
His all time favorite Flyer “would have to be either Eric Lindros or Bobby Clarke.” From the mindset of a player, Fanelli understands the business side of the sport and the urge to win, but as a Sport Management major at Queens University of Charlotte, Fanelli’s passion for the front office has grown.
“I want to work for a sports team— preferably a hockey team [in any league]. I want to work for the business operations side or hockey operations side— GM, Vice President, President, Owner, Coach; you name it. Mainly I want to work as a marketing or analytics guy,” Fanelli added, while also mentioning that he wouldn’t mind working in a scouting department too. “It may change, but that’s what I have my mind set on.”
Change is part of the sport, but one thing remains the same, his love for Philadelphia. To help celebrate 50 years of the single largest moment of expansion in NHL history (when the league doubled in size from six teams to 12 with the addition of the California Golden Seals, Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins, Los Angeles Kings, Minnesota North Stars and St. Louis Blues), this season’s Coors Light NHL Stadium Series game is being held between the Penguins and the Flyers at Heinz Field.
And like any Philly fan, Fanelli wants to be there, in enemy territory, to cheer on the Flyers. February 25, 2017 won’t just be his third outdoor game; it might become his favorite moment in Flyers history, if his team is able to pull off the win.
“I’m looking forward to the atmosphere. Just seeing the atmosphere and an outside game… …it’s the greatest thing in the world.” But it could be said that anywhere there’s a rink is the greatest thing in the world. There’s not a day that goes by that Fanelli isn’t wearing something associated with the Flyers (or any Philly sports team for that matter).
While graduation is just a couple of years away, one can only assume that Fanelli is not that far away from nesting his home somewhere in the realm of one of his favorite teams, whether it’s the Flyers, the Philadelphia Phillies, the Philadelphia Eagles, the Philadelphia Union or the Philadelphia 76ers, the time is almost now for him to begin the ascension to the throne of a front office position in Philadelphia sports.
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Down the Frozen River Podcast #36- 2016-2017 Season Preview: Pacific Division
The Down the Frozen River crew fills you in on all of the biggest offseason moves in the Pacific Division and previews how each team in the division will do in the upcoming 2016-2017 season. Also discussed, a general disgust for Team USA’s World Cup exit and who the crew thinks will make the Championship game.
Join Colby, Connor, Frank and Nick as they discuss several of the Pacific Division’s offseason’s biggest acquisitions and other tidbits of information. As always, stayed tuned for weekly coverage of the latest news and notes around the NHL every week on the Down the Frozen River Podcast.
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Down the Frozen River Podcast #35- 2016-2017 Season Preview: Atlantic Division
The Down the Frozen River crew is back with yet another week of exciting hot takes and a preview of every Atlantic Division team for the 2016-2017 season. Join Colby, Frank and Nick as they discuss several of the Atlantic Division’s offseason’s biggest acquisitions and other tidbits of information. As always, stayed tuned for weekly coverage of the latest news and notes around the NHL every week on the Down the Frozen River Podcast.
Join the conversation, make a suggestion, or ask a question for our next podcast using #AskDownTheFrozenRiver or #DTFRPodcast on Twitter and/or drop us a line on Facebook– your thoughts might make it on our show!
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Down the Frozen River Podcast #34- 2016-2017 Season Preview: Central Division
The Down the Frozen River crew is back with yet another week of exciting hot takes and a preview of every Central Division team for the 2016-2017 season. Join Colby, Frank and Nick as they discuss several of the Central Division’s offseason’s biggest acquisitions and other tidbits of information. As always, stayed tuned for weekly coverage of the latest news and notes around the NHL every week on the Down the Frozen River Podcast.
*Editor’s note: Due to another technological issue this week, a big change may be coming to the podcast. Stay tuned.*
Join the conversation, make a suggestion, or ask a question for our next podcast using #AskDownTheFrozenRiver or #DTFRPodcast on Twitter and/or drop us a line on Facebook– your thoughts might make it on our show!

The Anaheim Ducks added
Youth is not just prevalent on the Arizona Coyotes roster this season, but in their front office as well, as 27-year-old, John Chayka, was hired as the youngest GM in NHL history.
Big and Bad are Backes. Wait, that’s not it. The Boston Bruins added
So the Buffalo Sabres look to do things this year. That’s a thing, I’m pretty sure. Major loss?
What did the Calgary Flames do this offseason? They got some goaltending.
Biggest additions:
2013, 2015— shoot, this year’s Stanley Cup Final is in an odd numbered year, isn’t it? Well, forget all of the season predictions, congrats to the Chicago Blackhawks. They’ll probably just insert some prospect alongside
The Colorado Avalanche added two Bourques to their team (
Zach Werenski made the team, so now they’ll have a defense. Oh, sorry, didn’t you there
The Dallas Stars have the same goaltending tandem of
The Detroit Red Wings added
Rogers Place looks pretty cool. 
The Los Angeles Kings most recently added
The Minnesota Wild added
The Montreal Canadiens traded
The Nashville Predators acquired
The New Jersey Devils restructured their forwards with the additions of
The New York Islanders added a lot of veteran presence to their noticeably Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum-less organization (yes, I took a shot at Barclays Center, there).
If winning the Jimmy Vesey sweepstakes counts for anything than the New York Rangers are winners. But they probably won’t be winners of much this season. Granted, they could make a playoff run (or miss it altogether), the same tune rings true, 
The Philadelphia Flyers already appear to be in midseason form, what with
The Pittsburgh Penguins have virtually the same team from Game 6 of the 2016 Stanley Cup Final and look to defend their championship title without
Just like the Penguins, the San Jose Sharks roster remains virtually untouched since their loss in Game 6 of the 2016 Stanley Cup Final, which kind of makes you wonder, did anyone remember that there was an offseason?
The St. Louis Blues will be consciously uncoupling with Ken Hitchcock at the end of the season in his farewell to coaching tour. Mike Yeo has already been named as his replacement and has begun barking out orders at practice, similar to his meltdown in Minnesota (though I have not confirmed that).
Auston Matthews.
The Washington Capitals acquired
Patrik Laine was selected 2nd overall at this year’s draft by the Winnipeg Jets, 


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