Down the Frozen River

Tag: Western Conference

2018 Offseason Preview: Arizona Coyotes

Our offseason previews for all 31 National Hockey League teams continues with the Arizona Coyotes and their outlook for the summer.

The Coyotes added some major pieces in Derek Stepan and Antti Raanta last June in a trade with the New York Rangers and were expected to be more competitive than they actually turned out to be in 2017-18. Things did not go as planned as the the team finished in 8th place in the Pacific Division and dead-last in the Western Conference with a 29-41-12 record (70 points).

Arizona went almost a dozen games without winning for the first month and a half of the season, continued to struggle, then turned on the jets (no relation to their franchise history having moved from Winnipeg to the desert in 1996) in February as a team with a lot of potential.

Clayton Keller emerged as a bright spot all season long, staking a legitimate claim at this season’s Calder Memorial Trophy honors as rookie of the year, while Dylan Strome was finally given a fair shake at the NHL level.

In short, the Coyotes have a lot of promise heading into 2018-19– perhaps as a playoff bubble team. It’s too early to tell if they’ll maintain their near 120-point projection (over the course of a season) performance as a team from February to the end of the regular season in April, but one thing’s for sure– they won’t be in the basement come April 2019.

2018 NHL Entry Draft

General Manager John Chayka has an analytics mindset in a smaller market (monetarily speaking). Chayka has to do a lot with a little in terms of salary cap spending allowance.

Drafting the right players is always essential to overall franchise success, long-term, but as the league continues to shift to a younger, fast and more skilled game, the Coyotes have a chance to stockpile on talent.

Brady Tkachuk or Oliver Wahlstrom could deliver on offsense for Arizona. Then again, the team could be thinking of adding a young defender in Noah Dobson, Quintin Hughes or Evan Bouchard. In any case the Coyotes have some big decisions to make among their pending free agents and Oliver Ekman-Larsson.

Pending free agents

Arizona has a mix of important roster members and depth guys to figure out just who exactly should earn another contract and who should be free to find a different city to play in.

Though Ekman-Larsson has one-year remaining on his current contract, there are signs of a looming extension being signed unless there is a trade offer out there that is too good to pass up.

This is where a guy like pending-restricted free agent Max Domi plays a vital role in Chayka’s overall offseason plans.

It’s unimaginable to think that Arizona would want to part with the 23-year-old son of legendary NHLer Tie Domi, but the fact of the matter is that it remains unclear how satisfied Domi is with the organization.

There’s a chance the Coyotes could be a lot better than they were this season, but the same thing was said last season and so on.

How Domi perceives the future of the organization will yield a decision in whether or not there’s a chance he gets traded. Otherwise, he’s Arizona’s biggest priority to re-sign.

Sure, they could look at what a team like the Pittsburgh Penguins would entertain and the Coyotes have about $23 million in cap space to work with– so a deal involving Phil Kessel would be attractive, but at what cost to the future of the team?

There’s a plethora of youth, prospects and promise in Arizona. How much is Chayka willing to risk to make the Coyotes go from rebuilding to playoff contender, keeping in mind that any team that makes the playoffs has a chance to win the Cup.

In addition to Domi, forwards Brad Richardson (UFA), Freddie Hamilton (RFA), Zac Rinaldo (UFA) and Laurent Dauphin (RFA) are current NHL-roster pending free agents this July. Arizona could move on from all of them if they wish to hit the reset button on their bottom six-forwards, though re-signing Dauphin wouldn’t hurt the club.

28-year-old defensemen, Luke Schenn and Kevin Connauton are pending-UFAs and could be kept around if Chayka’s not looking at adjusting his defense.

In goal, Raanta has three-years remaining on his deal and backup Darcy Kuemper has two more years left on his contract. As long as the Coyotes are content with their strategy in net, there’s no need to ship either goaltender elsewhere.

Other pending free agents throughout the organization include:

Sean Maguire (RFA), Dakota Mermis (RFA), Trevor Murphy (RFA), Joel Hanley (UFA), Pierre-Cédric Labrie (UFA), Mike Sislo (UFA), Tye McGinn (UFA), Mark Langhamer (RFA) and Michael Bunting (RFA)

June 12, 2018
How the Vegas Golden Knights got here

The Vegas Golden Knights had 500-1 odds of winning the Stanley Cup in their inaugural season back in October. Now, they’re just four wins away.

Let’s clarify a few things here:

1. The team has a lot of leadership.

Whether it’s Jon Marchessault, James Neal, David Perron, Deryk Engelland or Marc-Andre Fleury, the Golden Knights have a deep locker room of leaders.

And that’s not doing enough justice to give their head coach, Gerard Gallant, some credit for the way the team’s carried themselves.

2. The team has a lot of playoff experience.

Vegas general manager George McPhee didn’t look for just a bunch of nobody’s. This is Fleury’s fifth appearance in the Stanley Cup Final– and third straight.

Entering this postseason, only the following Golden Knights regulars had zero games of playoff experience– Ryan Carpenter, William Carrier, Tomas Nosek, Malcolm Subban (their backup goaltender, not likely to see any playing time with Fleury existing) and Alex Tuch.

Fleury (115 games), Neal (80), Perron (42), Ryan Reaves (36), Engelland (28), Erik Haula (24), Nate Schmidt (21), Luca Sbisa (20) and Shea Thoedore (20) all had at least 20 games of playoff experience coming into the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Reaves, of course, was acquired prior to the trade deadline. Primarily for his scoring prowess in an elimination game, obviously. Wait.

3. The 2017 Expansion Draft was not rigged.

Nobody told Florida Panthers general manager Dale Tallon he had to a) leave Marchessault exposed and b) trade Reilly Smith to Vegas to ensure they wouldn’t select someone other than Marchessault at the Expansion Draft.

Let’s reword that a bit.

Marchessault was left exposed and the Panthers did not specify that he was untouchable as part of the Smith deal. Florida encouraged Vegas to take on Smith’s $5.000 million cap hit through the 2021-22 season after one down year with the Panthers.

The Golden Knights were the scapegoat for salary cap mismanagement by other NHL teams and everyone thought Vegas wouldn’t turn out to be this way.

Fleury was assured of being selected by McPhee and Co. thanks to Pittsburgh’s tight cap after winning back-to-back Cups along with their goaltending situation in which Matt Murray had rightfully taken the starting goaltender role. The Penguins even sent a 2018 second round pick in the trade to persuade Vegas to select Fleury in the Expansion Draft instead of a guy like Brian Dumoulin.

William Karlsson had underperformed with the Columbus Blue Jackets and was left exposed to Vegas as part of a deal that saw the Golden Knights take on David Clarkson‘s deadweight contract.

A happy accident– or more accurately, superb scouting and foresight. That same scouting led to nailing more than one needle in a haystack.

Alex Tuch? Traded by the Minnesota Wild to Vegas as part of an agreement that McPhee would select Erik Haula.

The Anaheim Ducks traded Theodore to Vegas so the Golden Knights would take Clayton Stoner and not one of Anaheim’s young core players of the future.

Finally, the talent pool is better than ever before. The Golden Knights were bound to stockpile a few good players as a result of stacked rosters (in theory) across the 30 other NHL clubs.

McPhee also worked the phones and made more than a few trades and depth signings in free agency.

Maxime Lagace and Oscar Dansk were both free agent signings that held things over for Vegas in the net while Fleury and Subban were injured for almost the first quarter of the regular season. Dansk went down with an injury himself four games into the Golden Knights third-string goaltending emergency relief plan.

When the Golden Knights turned to Dylan Ferguson in goal it was only possible because of McPhee’s deal with the Dallas Stars in which defender Marc Methot, who was claimed at the Expansion Draft by Vegas, was flipped to Dallas for Ferguson and a 2020 second round pick.

Not every selection made by Vegas in the 2017 Expansion Draft suited up for the Golden Knights.

Trevor van Riemsdyk was packaged with a 2018 seventh round pick to the Carolina Hurricanes for Pittsburgh’s 2017 second round pick (Jake Leschyshyn).

David Schlemko was flipped to the Montreal Canadiens for a 2019 fifth round pick.

Alexei Emelin was sent to the Nashville Predators for a 2018 third round pick.

Despite appearing in preseason action for Vegas, last season’s backup goaltender with the Colorado Avalanche– turned AHL backup goaltender with the Toronto Marlies this season– Calvin Pickard was dealt to the Maple Leafs for a 2018 sixth round pick and Tobias Lindberg.

Pickard’s trade was spurned by McPhee finding a better backup goaltender at no cost to the organization– Malcolm Subban.

Subban was claimed off waivers from Boston after the Bruins waited a few days after waivers went into effect to decide on sending him to Providence.

Ryan Carpenter? Another claim off waivers– midseason— from the San Jose Sharks.

It’s a professional league. It’s a free market. Something, something, stop complaining because your team has a history of letting you down. The Golden Knights will let their fans down in time, just like every other professional sports franchise in the history of all major professional North American sports.

But for now, why not enjoy the ride?

They swept a 1967 expansion team in the First Round, they defeated a 1990s expansion team in the Second Round and now they’ve beaten a late-1990s expansion franchise that relocated to Winnipeg in 2011 for the Western Conference championship.

There’s never going to be another run quite like this and if it ends in a Stanley Cup championship maybe we should all meet in Vegas for the afterparty. Celebrate the sport.

May 21, 2018
Down the Frozen River Podcast #100– DTFR100 Celebration

In a first, everyone (except for Jordan) appears on the Down the Frozen River Podcast to predict how the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs will go before the 2017-18 NHL regular season even ends, technically speaking. The 100th episode anniversary is informally observed.

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

April 7, 2018
Numbers Game: Last Week To Make It Count
Ladies and gentlemen, the Stanley Cup Playoffs begin this month. It’s officially April. Start saving your money for either 1) playoff tickets or 2) tee times– there is no in-between.

Each month has brought a new twist to the latest forecasted standings here on Down the Frozen River and in the spirit of finishing off the season, here’s one final look at how things should pan out with one week remaining in the 2017-18 regular season.

It’s okay to tell Microsoft Excel you disagree, so by all means, take these numbers for what you want. A holistic viewpoint goes a lot further in the world of analytics and a salary cap. At this point, it’s almost worth more to focus on where your team is expected to fall in the standings than how many points they should amass on the season.

And if you’re embracing the tank, you might as well forget about it. The NHL draft lottery usually shakes things up pretty well anyway.

Anyway, here’s how the standings should shake out for all 31 NHL franchises based on their performances through March 31, 2018. Keep in mind my degree is in communication– not math. These are merely educated “I know how to use Excel to make things happen” guesses.

2017-2018 Projected Standings after Five Months

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division
1. p-Boston Bruins, 117 points (77 GP so far)
2. x-Tampa Bay Lightning, 111 points (78 GP so far)
3. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 104 points (78 GP so far)
4. Florida Panthers, 89 points (77 GP so far)
5. Detroit Red Wings, 75 points (79 GP so far)
6. Ottawa Senators, 73 points (78 GP so far)
7. Montreal Canadiens, 70 points (78 GP so far)
8. Buffalo Sabres, 64 points (78 GP so far)
Surging through March despite numerous injuries, the Boston Bruins claw their way not only into first place in the Atlantic Division standings (and Eastern Conference standings as a whole), but they land themselves just their third President’s Trophy in franchise history as the league leaders at the conclusion of the 2017-18 regular season.

Despite their late season hiccups, the Tampa Bay Lightning settle for 2nd in the Atlantic Division and gear up for what should be a deeper than the First Round playoff appearance.

The Toronto Maple Leafs make some noise with their second consecutive postseason appearance, but are no match for the long journey to the Cup this season (give it one more postseason, Leafs fans. Next year, it’s totally your year).

Somehow the Ottawa Senators string together a few wins to surpass the Montreal Canadiens. Meanwhile the Florida Panthers stumble just as quietly out of playoff contention as they began the season.

Metropolitan Division
1. y-Washington Capitals, 104 points (78 GP so far)
2. x-Pittsburgh Penguins, 99 points (79 GP so far)
3. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 98 points (79 GP so far)
4. wc1-New Jersey Devils, 98 points (78 GP so far)
5. wc2-Philadelphia Flyers, 97 points (78 GP so far)
6. Carolina Hurricanes, 83 points (79 GP so far)
7. New York Rangers, 80 points (79 GP so far)
8. New York Islanders, 78 points (79 GP so far)
The Washington Capitals always seem to find a way to win their division. Especially in what has been Braden Holtby‘s season from hell (have you checked his goals against average and save percentage this season yet? Because if you’re a Caps fan and you haven’t, maybe you shouldn’t for your own good heading into the playoffs).

In what has equally been as difficult a season for Matt Murray in goal for the Pittsburgh Penguins, the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions should have home ice for a First Round matchup with the Columbus Blue Jackets that shouldn’t go less than seven games. Best friends in real life, Mike Sullivan and John Tortorella, just might put their friendship to the test for a couple of weeks.

Both of the Eastern Conference wild cards are going to Metropolitan Division teams this season as the New Jersey Devils and Philadelphia Flyers are welcomed back to the postseason with open arms.

If you’re a Carolina Hurricanes fan, next year seems enticing to break the playoff drought– and it’s only fitting, since 2019 will mark 10 years since Carolina last made the Stanley Cup playoffs.

And if you’re John Tavares, maybe you’re looking elsewhere from the abysmal New York Islanders this offseason. Say for instance, the quickly rebuilding New York Rangers?

Western Conference

Central Division
1. z-Nashville Predators, 114 points (78 GP so far)
2. x-Winnipeg Jets, 114 points (78 GP so far)
3. x-Minnesota Wild, 99 points (78 GP so far)
4. wc1-St. Louis Blues, 98 points (78 GP so far)
5. Colorado Avalanche, 94 points (78 GP so far)
6. Dallas Stars, 89 points (79 GP so far)
7. Chicago Blackhawks, 78 points (79 GP so far)
The Nashville Predators edge out the Winnipeg Jets in regulation-plus-overtime wins to lay claim to the Western Conference’s best regular season record and home ice through the Western Conference Final. Both teams are set for what should at least be postseason appearances extending into the Second Round.

Since Winnipeg is likely to knock out the Minnesota Wild in a quick series, let’s skip right over them to talk about the St. Louis Blues for a minute.

They thought it was a great idea to get rid of Paul Stastny at the trade deadline– giving up his dominance on the faceoff dot– and yet, here they are with a final week of the season push for the playoffs.

Of course, it helps that the Colorado Avalanche lost Semyon Varlamov and Erik Johnson to injuries (with the Johnson injury being the bigger blow to Nathan MacKinnon‘s Hart Trophy worthy season and the rest of the Avs).

At least Tyler Seguin reached the 40-goal mark for the Dallas Stars and the Chicago Blackhawks still have Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews.

Pacific Division
1. y-Vegas Golden Knights, 113 points (79 GP so far)
2. x-San Jose Sharks, 101 points (79 GP so far)
3. x-Los Angeles Kings, 95 points (79 GP so far)
4. wc2-Anaheim Ducks, 95 points (78 GP so far)
5. Calgary Flames, 85 points (79 GP so far)
6. Edmonton Oilers, 79 points (79 GP so far)
7. Vancouver Canucks, 75 points (79 GP so far)
8. Arizona Coyotes, 72 points (79 GP so far)
An expansion franchise almost clinched the Western Conference regular season title. The Vegas Golden Knights are that good and should make an impressive effort into at least the Second Round of the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs. It’s pure insanity, but it’s fun to watch.

If you’re a California resident, there’s good news, all three of your teams will be in the postseason (again). Just switch your hats and/or jerseys to whoever’s playing that night and hope for the best (pick San Jose, they seem like a good dark horse).

The Calgary Flames get the honor of “best of the worst teams in the west”, which I’m sure will tie into the Stampede Festival somehow– if not solely because their owner is looking to stampede out of the city and into a new arena elsewhere.

Poor Connor McDavid, it must be demoralizing to have back-to-back 100-point seasons on a team that has only made the playoffs once in his young career.

And you probably shouldn’t write off the Arizona Coyotes entirely, because they very well could make the Vancouver Canucks look worse and jump from 8th to 7th in the division by season’s end.

If you’re so inclined to see how things were expected to pan out this season back in October, you can do so here.
April 1, 2018
Numbers Game: March to the Playoffs
First of all, it’s March, which means it’s officially the best month of the year, but not for any of the reasons you’re thinking. College basketball can stay on the back burner– especially when there’s playoff hockey to look forward to next month when, oh yeah, that NCAA championship game actually occurs.

Save your “March is the worst month of the year” takes for the next person in line, thanks.

Anyway, at this point in the season it’s worth noting that the trade deadline has come and passed. While acquisitions like Rick Nash for the Boston Bruins, Derick Brassard for the Pittsburgh Penguins, Tomas Tatar for the Vegas Golden Knights and Paul Stastny for the Winnipeg Jets will certainly impact their teams, the following projected standings are merely an educated guess at how things should pan out.

There are simply too many variables that Microsoft Excel cannot account for, namely injuries, roster changes and well, whether or not a player woke up on the right side of the bed that day.

To that end, some projected points totals had a little Gut Feeling 2.0 added to them. In other words, the Toronto Maple Leafs are not going to end up with 130 or 131 points like a couple of models showed– there’s simply not enough games remaining for them to almost match an NHL record.

Therefore, more realistic measures have been added for some teams to account for “reality”.

Some teams like the Chicago Blackhawks, for instance, had a little win-percentage on the season taken into account for their 19 remaining games on the season– and then reflected in the total number of points they should earn.

As with all stats and analytics, try not to get too bogged down on one or another. A holistic viewpoint goes much further than trying to survive on heart and grit alone.

Especially in today’s NHL, where speed and skill are more present than ever before.

With that, here’s a glance at how the standings should shake out for all 31 NHL clubs based on their performances through February 28, 2018.

As always, my degree is in communication, not math. In other words, throw everything mentioned above out the window, strap yourself in and good luck surviving the adrenaline rush that is the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Oh, your team’s not going to make it, you say?

My condolences, Ottawa Senators, Buffalo Sabres, New York Rangers, Carolina Hurricanes, Blackhawks and Arizona Coyotes fans. Next year is totally your year.

Maybe.

2017-2018 Projected Standings after Five Months

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division
1. y-Tampa Bay Lightning, 106 points (64 GP so far)
2. x-Boston Bruins, 105 points (61 GP so far)
3. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 105 points (66 GP so far)
4. Montreal Canadiens, 78 points (63 GP so far)
5. Detroit Red Wings, 75 points (63 GP so far)
6. Florida Panthers, 75 points (60 GP so far)
7. Buffalo Sabres, 68 points (64 GP so far)
8. Ottawa Senators, 65 points (62 GP so far)
The Atlantic Division was already determined in December. Nothing should surprise anyone, except for how close it should be coming down the wire for first place in the division.

It might seem crazy considering the Tampa Bay Lightning really bolstered their defense with Ryan McDonagh at the trade deadline, but Boston and Toronto have as much speed and offense to remain in the hunt for that little “Y” next to their names down the stretch. Plus it helps that the Lightning, Bruins and Maple Leafs aren’t playing each other every night, so that has to factor in their somehow.

Between 4th and 6th in the division it’s anyone’s game. The Montreal Canadiens, Detroit Red Wings and Florida Panthers are all teetering on the edge of either a rebuild or just a few steps away from a re-tool-on-the-fly.

Neither of them are inherently “ideal”, but they can’t do anything else to compete with Tampa, Boston and Toronto.

It’s worth noting that the Buffalo Sabres will barely climb out of the basement of the division this year. And that’s without Jack Eichel (fractured ankle).

Simply put, the Ottawa Senators are beyond bad.

Metropolitan Division
1. z-Pittsburgh Penguins, 108 points (64 GP so far)
2. x-Philadelphia Flyers, 99 points (63 GP so far)
3. x-New Jersey Devils, 97 points (63 GP so far)
4. wc1-Columbus Blue Jackets, 96 points (63 GP so far)
5. wc2-Washington Capitals, 94 points (64 GP so far)
6. New York Islanders, 87 points (64 GP so far)
7. Carolina Hurricanes, 75 points (63 GP so far)
8. New York Rangers, 72 points (64 GP so far)
After much turbulence leading up to this month in the Metropolitan Division, it seems by the end of the month, we’ll have a clear picture of who’s really a contender, who’s making a Second Round exit and who’s just pretending to be on the ice when they’re actually sending out some pretty high-tech holograms on the ice.

In other words, the Pittsburgh Penguins are suited for a three-peat as long as Matt Murray can stay healthy. Even still, they’re beginning to peak at the right time as they have done every year with Mike Sullivan behind the bench.

But who’s that neighbor of theirs in Pennsylvania? They might have to re-grease some poles in Philadelphia, because the Flyers are surging right now and it should carry them into decent playoff position.

The New Jersey Devils, Columbus Blue Jackets and Washington Capitals all remain competitive, but sadly fall victim to First or Second Round exits simply because have you seen the rest of the Eastern Conference? Yeah, I thought so too.

One of these years if the Carolina Hurricanes look to actually spend a little more money they’ll be able to take their money-puck approach back to the postseason for the first time since 2009, but this year is not that year. They didn’t do anything at the deadline and it shows.

Western Conference

Central Division
1. p-Winnipeg Jets, 116 points (63 GP so far)
2. x-Minnesota Wild, 104 points (63 GP so far)
3. x-Nashville Predators, 100 points (62 GP so far)
4. wc2-St. Louis Blues, 92 points (65 GP so far)
5. Dallas Stars, 92 points (63 GP so far)
6. Colorado Avalanche, 85 points (63 GP so far)
7. Chicago Blackhawks, 70 points (63 GP so far)
Your President’s Trophy winners, ladies and gentlemen, entering March 2018 should be the Winnipeg Jets.

That’s right, the team in Winnipeg, Manitoba with a seating capacity of a little more than 15,000 fans at Bell MTS Place. That one. Winnipeg. The Western Conference’s Carolina Hurricanes. They aren’t big spenders, yet they bought exactly what they needed at the trade deadline in Paul Stastny.

Meanwhile, apparently Eric Staal‘s first hat trick in a little over five years is enough to catapult the Minnesota Wild on a surprising run down the stretch. Though they are currently 3rd in the Central Division, Minnesota is coming alive.

It’s hard to knock the Nashville Predators off of their game– especially while they’re in command of the division– but something just doesn’t go exactly as planned this month for the Preds.

They’ll still beat Minnesota in the First Round and set themselves up for quite a matchup with Winnipeg in the Second Round though. Obviously the winner of that is going to battle the Vegas Golden Knights for the Clarence S. Campbell Bowl.

A warning to the St. Louis Blues– keep up this downward trend and the Dallas Stars will replace you in the wild card.

Whatever upper body injury is plaguing Corey Crawford is only making things worse for the Chicago Blackhawks.

In some models, they should be a lot better than they are right now, but that’s due to their impressive streak of success from 2010-17. Now, in 2018, the wheels fell off and the floor fell out from under them– on top of the Crawford injury.

Pacific Division
1. y-Vegas Golden Knights, 113 points (63 GP so far)
2. x-Los Angeles Kings, 105 points (64 GP so far)
3. x-Anaheim Ducks, 100 points (64 GP so far)
4. wc1-San Jose Sharks, 94 points (64 GP so far)
5. Calgary Flames, 78 points (65 GP so far)
6. Edmonton Oilers, 78 points (63 GP so far)
7. Vancouver Canucks, 77 points (64 GP so far)
8. Arizona Coyotes, 63 points (62 GP so far)
The Vegas Golden Knights, in their inaugural season, come up three points shy of winning the 2017-18 President’s Trophy as the team with the best regular season record. The Vegas Golden Knights.

Despite the push from all of the California clubs, this is Vegas’s division title to lose. Not just in the regular season, but in the playoffs too.

No amount of onslaught from the Los Angeles Kings or Anaheim Ducks should be able to stand a seven-game series with Ryan Reaves and the rest of the Golden Knights. Having said that though, it’s a shame the San Jose Sharks will likely pair-up with the Jets, because we’ll never get to know if Vegas could single handedly defeat all three California teams en route to the 2018 Stanley Cup Final.

That’s assuming a lot, but let’s roll with it.

All season long the Calgary Flames have been a lovable underdog. Unfortunately, their time is cut short. All good things must come to an end and again, if you’re going to do nothing at the deadline as a fringe competitor, you can’t expect to improve.

At least you shouldn’t, otherwise well, you know the definition of insanity (doing the same thing and expecting a different result).

Better luck next year, Edmonton Oilers, Vancouver Canucks and Arizona Coyotes.
March 1, 2018
Numbers Game: Vegas Through 60

Derick Brassard was briefly a Golden Knight. Yes, he was flipped from Ottawa to Vegas to Pittsburgh as part of Friday’s three-team trade and technically speaking, he never suited up for Vegas so it doesn’t actually count, but Brassard was once a Golden Knight.

Now, as a result of the Brassard trade, Ryan Reaves is the newest player in Vegas.

Through 60 games (entering Friday), the Vegas Golden Knights are still 1st in the Pacific Division. William Karlsson is in the midst of a career year, Marc-Andre Fleury and James Neal probably won’t be traded at the deadline like everyone thought they would and there’s a real possibility this whole “Cup in One” mantra actually works out.

Thanks in part to the crazy scheduling this time of year– between the NHL, the Winter Games in PyeongChang, the upcoming trade deadline on Monday and much, much more– I was finally able to squeeze in the time to update Golden Knights projections with 22 games remaining in their schedule.

The only problem is that they’ve now played Game 61 of 82 and added Ryan Reaves. So basically, here’s everything I had before anything that happened on Friday.

I’ll try to come up with some projections for Reaves and any other potential acquisitions Vegas makes between now and the deadline, but there’s no promises. Every year around the deadline my database needs constant updating and as a result some things get bogged down until I physically go through every stat.

I do get around to it (eventually) and these players will be reflected in any subsequent projection posts.

Anyway, on with the show…

The Golden Knights aren’t good. They’re great.

Check out the latest forecast in the charts below. Keep in mind, as always, that anything that sounds ridiculous is Microsoft Excel’s fault. I’m just kidding. There are always outliers and unrealistic projections. Alas, these are merely utopian, Excel driven, guesses.

Standard disclaimer, my degree is in communication– not math or #fancystats.

Vegas Golden Knights Projections Through 60 Games (22 Games Remaining)

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The sensational season continues and down the stretch as Erik Haula, Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, Neal, David Perron and Reilly Smith are all expected to amass somewhere around 60-points (or more).

Colin Miller‘s emergence as a top defenseman in the Western Conference continues as he nears the 40-point plateau by seasons end. Also, look at Shea Theodore fitting right in as a top-4 quality defenseman just entering his prime. Miller, Nate Schmidt and Theodore for years to come in Vegas should mean many great things.

Meanwhile, Fleury’s incredible run in goal begins to cool off just a little. His goals against average begins to reflect an “average” year for Fleury, which– granted– is still better than a lot of goaltenders in the NHL. Fleury’s save percentage should be just fine down the stretch– if not potentially league-leading.

February 24, 2018
2018 Trade Deadline Preview: Central Division

1. Nashville Predators– 34-12-9 (77 points, 55 GP)

The Nashville Predators are amazing. They’re pulling off their spectacular season on the heels of last year’s Stanley Cup Final run with almost $3.000 million in salary tied up in buyouts.

Oh, and they somehow added to their depth down the middle in the whole Matt Duchene, three-team trade saga that saw Kyle Turris swap out Ottawa Senators gear for a Preds sweater.

They don’t need to add, but general manager David Poile still might work a little magic by adding without subtracting if he can. Mike Fisher, 37, is trying to come back from retirement because he believes Nashville’s time is now. Only time will tell if he can go from his current PTO to a one-year deal that just might get him his first taste from the Stanley Cup.

If Poile wants to add anything, he’s going to have to do so with about $3.200 million in cap space currently.

Potential assets to trade: Honestly, don’t.

Potential assets to acquire: F Derek Ryan (CAR), D Cody Franson (CHI), F Boone Jenner (CBJ), F Patrick Maroon (EDM), F Michael Grabner (NYR), F Thomas Vanek (VAN)

2. Winnipeg Jets– 33-15-9 (75 points, 57 GP)

Injuries are beginning to mount for the Winnipeg Jets and it’ll be interesting to see what the GM Kevin Cheveldayoff does by February 26th considering his team’s current backup goaltender is 22-year-old, Eric Comrie. Their starter is 24-year-old, Connor Hellebuyck, who’s emerged as clear-cut starting goaltender this season (aside from his All-Star appearance back in January).

But what considerations has Cheveldayoff made with Jacob Trouba out for a signifcant portion of “the stretch”? What’s the game plan if a guy like Kyle Connor or Patrik Laine goes down?

Winnipeg has about $5.400 million in cap space to play with as of this writing.

They are what should be a destination for rental players looking to take a team that’s on the verge of breaking out in the postseason deeper than they could ever imagine.

And the Jets have just enough to offer other teams to bring in the right pieces to the puzzle.

Potential assets to trade: D Ben Chiarot, F Matt Hendricks, F Nic Petan

Potential assets to acquire: F Boone Jenner (CBJ), F Patrick Maroon (EDM), F Alex Galchenyuk (MTL), F Michael Grabner (NYR), D Nick Holden (NYR), F Jean-Gabriel Pageau (OTT), F Josh Leivo (TOR), F Thomas Vanek (VAN), F David Perron (VGK)

3. St. Louis Blues– 34-21-4 (72 points, 59 GP)

There’s almost $125,000 in cap space for the St. Louis Blues right now. While it’d be great for the Blues to add one or two of their missing pieces that’d send them right over the edge of victory (once-and-for-all), the better time to readjust appears to be this summer.

Besides, Joel Edmundson, Robby Fabbri and Carter Hutton will all need new contracts. Not that they’re going to cost St. Louis tens of millions of dollars, but it’ll likely mean that someone will have to get traded either at the 2018 NHL Entry Draft or later this summer.

Jay Bouwmeester is 34-years-old and has a $5.400 million cap hit through next season. He also has a no-trade-clause that could make things difficult for the foreseeable future, given that when the Blues are on their “A” game they can really make a claim for Cup contender status this season.

It’d be unwise to part with Bouwmeester now, but it only makes sense to do it later.

Just don’t get behind the eight ball is the best advice for St. Louis looking past the end of this month. Otherwise, salary cap hell isn’t all that fun.

Potential assets to trade: D Jay Bouwmeester

Potential assets to acquire: F Derek Ryan (CAR), F Blake Comeau (COL), F Matt Cullen (MIN), F Josh Leivo (TOR), F Nikita Soshnikov (TOR), F David Perron (VGK)

4. Dallas Stars– 33-20-4 (70 points, 57 GP)

The Dallas Stars currently cling to the first wild card spot in the Western Conference, though they trail the St. Louis Blues by two points for 3rd in the Central Division in what’s shaping up to be the tighter points battle in the West compared to the lackluster Pacific Division.

Yes, I’m fully aware Los Angeles did something to their defense Tuesday night, why do you ask?

The Central is all about racking up points while the Pacific bangs bodies off of each other in hopes of amounting to something more than your standard pylon.

So where do the Stars fit into the playoff picture? They should be in the running for at least a wild card spot coming down the stretch– and with almost $889,000 in cap space right now it’s going to be hard to add what they really need to push them over the hill.

Backup goaltender, Kari Lehtonen, is a pending-UFA at season’s end, so it’s not like Dallas needs to make a move there, but they could help their starter, Ben Bishop, a little more.

While other teams in the league are searching for the right rental forward, the Stars should be looking for the right rental defenseman. Whether that’s a Mike Green or a Cody Franson, well, only Stars GM Jim Nill will know, based on what he must give up.

Potential assets to trade: F Martin Hanzal, D Greg Pateryn

Potential assets to acquire: D Cody Franson (CHI), D Mike Green (DET), D Nick Holden (NYR), D Ian Cole (PIT), D Ben Hutton (VAN)

5. Minnesota Wild– 31-19-6 (68 points, 56 GP)

There’s good news and bad news for the Minnesota Wild as the trade deadline nears. The good news is that the Chicago Blackhawks are more than likely taking a pass on this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs. The bad news is the Wild might do that too (oh, and Minnesota only has about $129,000 in cap room– with Jason Zucker and Matt Dumba as pending-RFAs this July).

For all of the talk regarding trading Jonas Brodin, there sure hasn’t been any radio chatter this time around as the deadline nears this month.

Though the Wild hold on to the second wild card spot in the Western Conference, there’s at least two California based teams (Los Angeles and Anaheim) that should be in the playoff picture coming down the wire.

If it’s make or break, then Minnesota has all the time in the world to wait and see what’s to come this summer.

But if they’re on the fence about determining whether to buy or sell, well, they could do a bit of both. If they’re looking for a quick retool, it’s within their means, but if they’re content with sinking before they swim, there’s always the reset (rebuild) button.

Still, it’d be a shame to rebuild with Devan Dubnyk in net. Alas, this is the world of the salary cap and bad contracts *ahem, Ryan Suter and Zach Parise*.

Potential assets to trade: D Jonas Brodin, F Matt Cullen, D Kyle Quincey, F Chris Stewart, F Daniel Winnik

Potential assets to acquire: D Cody Franson (CHI), F Jordan Kyrou (STL), D Ben Hutton (VAN)

6. Colorado Avalanche– 31-21-4 (66 points, 56 GP)

In theory, the Colorado Avalanche could be buyers at this year’s trade deadline.

They’re in great shape cap-wise, with about $8.400 million to spend currently, but Avalanche general manager, Joe Sakic, knows it by now– the best thing to do for Colorado is let their youth gain experience, make minor moves until the offseason, then address specific needs.

Colorado has expendable components, but cannot touch its core.

With Matt Duchene out of the picture, the focus has turned to making the Avs– in every way– Nathan MacKinnon‘s team. Gabriel Landeskog‘s just along for the ride at this point. If he’s patient, many rewards may find their way to the Mile-High City. If he’s sick of waiting, Sakic might be forced to reap another surplus of players, picks and prospects like he did in the three-way Duchene deal.

After Francois Beauchemin‘s $4.500 million buyout penalty comes off the books at season’s end, the Avalanche will have at least $13 million to spend on giving backup-turned-potential-starting goaltender, Jonathan Bernier, a fair raise while also making decisions on several pending-RFAs.

Potential assets to trade: D Tyson Barrie, F Gabriel Bourque, F Blake Comeau, F Rocco Grimaldi, G Semyon Varlamov, F Nail Yakupov

Potential assets to acquire: Literally anyone, F Jeff Skinner (CAR), F Boone Jenner (CBJ), D Jack Johnson (CBJ), G Petr Mrazek (DET), F Gustav Nyqvist (DET), F Tomas Plekanec (MTL), D Ryan McDonagh (NYR), F Rick Nash (NYR), F Mike Hoffman (OTT), F Jean-Gabriel Pageau (OTT), G Aaron Dell (SJ), F Josh Leivo (TOR), F Nikita Soshnikov (TOR), D Ben Hutton (VAN), F James Neal (VGK), F David Perron (VGK), F Nic Petan (WPG)

7. Chicago Blackhawks– 24-25-8 (56 points, 57 GP)

Reward contracts have killed the Chicago Blackhawks dynasty. This is what drives parity in a salary cap league (see “Detroit Red Wings downfall since 1998, thanks to 2004-05”), so once again, welcome to the Salary Cap Era.

Depending on your methods of calculation, the Blackhawks will either have $0 to spend at the deadline or maybe up to about $3.100 million in wiggle room.

Regardless, they’re not buying this year. They’re buying for the future– so draft picks and prospects. One thing that might get in their way (other than the salary cap) is what they have to offer.

Large reward contracts were handed out to Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews while Duncan Keith took a discount. Marian Hossa is on the books at a cap hit of $5.275 million through the end of the 2020-21 season, whether he plays or not.

If Hossa never plays again, Chicago can always place him on the long-term injured reserve (eh, just paperwork), buyout his contract (yikes) or trade him to a team like the Arizona Coyotes (preferable) who took on the large salary of Pavel Datsyuk in his final NHL-contract year just to meet the cap floor, knowing he had jettisoned for the KHL.

The bottom line is Chicago’s cash-strapped. Someone important is going to have to be dealt in order to protect the organization’s future endeavors.

With Toews and Kane at a combined $21.000 million cap hit through the 2022-23 season, unless the cap rises significantly, this just might keep the Blackhawks down in the dumps for a while.

Potential assets to trade: F Artem Anisimov (before his NMC/modified-NTC kicks in), D Cody Franson, F Marian Hossa (if he’ll waive his NMC), F Brandon Saad, D Brent Seabrook (if he’ll waive his NMC),

Potential assets to acquire: Draft picks, prospects and cap room

February 15, 2018
Numbers Game: Flirting With [Trading] Partners
For those of you that don’t work for Hallmark, it’s February, so you all have to get your act together– unless you’re like me and you’re totally going to be hitting up that half-price candy at Target on February 15th for no reason whatsoever.

Anyway, it’s time we take a look at how the standings should look in April based on how all 31 NHL teams entered the month of February.

Now, in light of the trade deadline near the end of the month (Monday, February 26th to be exact), let’s keep this one brief, shall we?

Just for this time around.

If you’re dying to know more about the outlook of your team, your rival or others, then you should come back each week (Thursdays at 3p ET) leading up to the deadline (take a gander at the Pacific Division trade deadline preview that’s out now!).

Keep in mind the following projections do not take into account any of the action from Thursday night (“GP so far” = the number of games said team has played from October through January 31st).

2017-2018 Projected Standings after Four Months

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division
1. z-Boston Bruins, 116 points (48 GP so far)
2. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 111 points (52 GP so far)
3. x-Tampa Bay Lightning, 106 points (50 GP so far)
4. Detroit Red Wings, 80 points (49 GP so far)
5. Montreal Canadiens, 79 points (50 GP so far)
6. Florida Panthers, 69 points (48 GP so far)
7. Ottawa Senators, 69 points (48 GP so far)
8. Buffalo Sabres, 63 points (50 GP so far)
Overall the Atlantic Division is rubbish.

Boston, Toronto and Tampa dominate the division, meanwhile the Senators are struggling to figure out that what they really need is to pay Erik Karlsson and rebuild (sooner rather than later). That being said, Detroit’s rebuild that they’re denying is actually a rebuild should look pretty good, considering the state of Montreal, Florida and Buffalo.

Are the Bruins really that good? Time will tell. Under Bruce Cassidy, Boston hasn’t gone through long streaks of highs and lows– in other words, they seem to always be peaking.

Will the Lightning cool off that much?

It’s possible, considering the Maple Leafs might not actually be trying that hard right now. It’s all part of a conspiracy theory pushed forth by @connorzkeith whereby head coach, Mike Babcock, is actually just toying with the league right now and teaching his young kids in Toronto how to play defense. Then one day *boom* Toronto’s offense goes off again.

Metropolitan Division
1. y-Washington Capitals, 104 points (50 GP so far)
2. x-Pittsburgh Penguins, 101 points (52 GP so far)
3. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 99 points (50 GP so far)
4. x- New Jersey Devils, 96 points (49 GP so far)
5. x-Philadelphia Flyers, 89 points (50 GP so far)
6. New York Islanders, 89 points (52 GP so far)
7. New York Rangers, 87 points (50 GP so far)
8. Carolina Hurricanes, 83 points (50 GP so far)
The Metropolitan Division is, at times, really exciting and at other times a crapshoot.

Barry Trotz’s Washington Capitals have figured out their game (like they always do) and should continue to hold onto the regular season division title (cue the cliché Second Round exit joke).

Pittsburgh is hitting their strides, despite shaky goaltending at times– though Washington has seen their share of that too. Speaking of goaltenders, Columbus has a not-so-secret weapon in net– it’s Sergei Bobrovsky and he’s here to keep the team out of a wild card spot.

New Jersey’s hot start was met by a cool middle before figuring out that yes, they can be a playoff team after all. Same thing for the Flyers, but not really. Philadelphia started slow and they’re looking to finish fast (in the 2nd wild card spot in the Eastern Conference).

Other than that, the Islanders and the Rangers look to retool, while Carolina looks to capitalize on selling Hartford Whalers merchandise in Raleigh, North Carolina for the first time at their team store.

Consider me a fan, Tom Dundon.

Western Conference

Central Division
1. y-Winnipeg Jets, 112 points (51 GP so far)
2. x-St. Louis Blues, 103 points (52 GP so far)
3. x-Chicago Blackhawks, 103 points (50 GP so far)
4. x-Nashville Predators, 101 points (48 GP so far)
5. Minnesota Wild, 96 points (50 GP so far)
6. Dallas Stars, 92 points (51 GP so far)
7. Colorado Avalanche, 91 points (48 GP so far)
In what might actually be the most exciting playoff push coming down the stretch, the Winnipeg Jets top the Central Division. Prepare for another whiteout at Bell MTS Place.

The St. Louis Blues cruise into the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs where it’s make or break– Cup or bust, the Western Conference’s Washington Capitals, except the Blues actually made a conference finals in the last decade.

As always, the Chicago Blackhawks season hasn’t actually started yet, so this whole “they’re last in the Central Division currently” talk is just talk. March comes around and the Blackhawks don’t lose another game until they get swept in the First Round.

Because of Chicago’s immaculate late season surge, Nashville slides into the first wild card spot in the West. No big deal.

Minnesota, Dallas and Colorado, despite missing the playoffs, are all exactly where they want to be. Far ahead of the atrocities in the Atlantic Division, such that Colorado becomes a destination location to land in July.

Pacific Division
1. p-Vegas Golden Knights, 119 points (49 GP so far)
2. x-Los Angeles Kings, 101 points (50 GP so far)
3. x-Anaheim Ducks, 98 points (51 GP so far)
4. x-San Jose Sharks, 97 points (50 GP so far)
5. Calgary Flames, 88 points (50 GP so far)
6. Edmonton Oilers, 80 points (49 GP so far)
7. Vancouver Canucks, 79 points (49 GP so far)
8. Arizona Coyotes, 57 points (50 GP so far)
The Vegas Golden Knights have already smashed so many records, why not break another one and win the President’s Trophy in their first season of existence as an expansion team?

They’ve already proven they’re the best expansion franchise in the history of the four major North American professional sports.

Los Angeles and Anaheim take advantage of the fact that the San Jose Sharks time is running out with their current core. Deadline moves cost the Sharks a legitimate shot in the playoffs, but at least they still made it as the second wild card from the Western Conference.

Calgary will get better, provided they take care of that defense first.

While disappointing, Edmonton’s misjudgment should be easy to overcome, but they’re going to have to ride out this mediocre season first.

Vancouver’s focus is on getting healthy and always giving Brock Boeser the puck.

Meanwhile, does anyone happen to know if Rasmus Dahlin likes getting his tan on? Because he’s probably headed to Arizona right now, where they might move on from a franchise defenseman (Oliver Ekman-Larsson) to draft… another franchise defenseman. Consider the rebuild over?

Not by a long shot.
February 2, 2018
Down the Frozen River Podcast #90- Standing All-Stars

Nick and Connor breakdown the news and notes from the latest week in the NHL leading up to the 2018 NHL All-Star break. Mike Smith is going back to the All-Star Game and we’re celebrating with #DTFRMissionAccomplished.

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

January 26, 2018
NHL Power Rankings: “Better Late Than Never” Edition

Apologies for being a day late with our NHL Power Rankings this week, as I’m sure so many people were looking forward to it… *Crickets*

Ok, moving on!

Things get a little tricky with bye weeks in play, but we still gave you the latest and greatest in terms of games played this past week. We’re rolling with the theme of this week’s edition because many of these teams were not in this position earlier in the season. As one might say, it’s better late than never, someone just be sure to remind them that the NHL season starts in October. With that said, let’s take a look at who made our top ten this week:

#1 Calgary Flames (59)

Current Record – 25-16-4

Last Ten Games – 7-2-1; Streak – W7

Don’t look now, but the Flames are on some kind of run. We’re a bit afraid to talk about it because that usually means it will come to a screeching halt. Jokes aside, Calgary is our top team for a reason. They are 7-2-1 in their last ten, with all of those wins coming in a row. Mike Smith is in pure beast-mode, which has helped his team crawl into the final playoff spot in the Pacific Division. Maybe scratching the ageless wonder was the answer after all.

#2 Pittsburgh Penguins (47)

Current Record – 24-19-3

Last Ten Games – 6-4-0; Streak – W4

A few weeks ago, the Penguins seemed in really bad shape. It was almost as if they had lost their identity because they really didn’t look like the back-to-back Stanley Cup Champions. As of late, they have picked up their play and are now back in playoff position. They were never really that far out, as the Metropolitan Division may very well be the tightest race in the NHL. Although just 6-4-0 in their last ten, Sidney Crosby and his crew seems to have turned the corner to get out of their slump.

#3 Colorado Avalanche (46)

Current Record – 24-16-3

Last Ten Games – 8-1-1; Streak – W7

The phrase “better late than never” could not be truer for the Avalanche. They started playing great hockey a few weeks ago and haven’t looked back. Winning seven games in a row, they are within striking distance of a playoff position. Colorado will look to make it eight-straight when they take on the Sharks tomorrow night.

#4 Minnesota Wild (45)

Current Record – 24-17-5

Last Ten Games – 6-2-2; Streak – OT1

The Minnesota Wild are back in the conversation, as they ride the shoulders of Devan Dubnyk. They downed the Blackhawks and the Jets, but came up short in overtime against the Canucks. It doesn’t get any easier for them, as they take on the Lightning and Penguins in two of their next three games. They are currently just a point shy of a Wild Card position in the Western Conference.

#5 New York Islanders (27)

Current Record – 23-19-4

Last Ten Games – 4-6-0; Steak – L1

You may be reading this thinking, really, Islanders in the top five? Keep in mind before a weak performance against the Devils, they were riding a string of three wins. What is more impressive is their stellar offense. During those three games, they scored 17 goals. For John Tavares and his teammates, when it rains, it pours. If the Islanders can rebound during this next stretch, they should be able to propel themselves to a playoff spot, at least for now.

#6 Nashville Predators (25)

Current Record – 26-11-6

Last Ten Games – 5-3-2; Streak – W3

The Predators are right back on track, winning key games against the Kings, Oilers, and Golden Knights. Although offense is usually the story for this squad, they are playing well at the other end of the ice. They were able to hold Edmonton to just one score, while shutting out Vegas (albeit a 1-0 barn-burner). The Coyotes and Panthers are up next, before a marquee matchup with the Lightning.

#7 Washington Capitals (20)

Current Record – 28-14-3

Last Ten Games – 6-2-2; Streak – W1

More of the same this week for the Capitals, as they continue to skate through their schedule. Although not making up much ground in the Presidents’ Trophy race, they are still sitting atop the Metropolitan Division. A loss to the Hurricanes is their only blemish in the last five games.

#8 Edmonton Oilers (20)

Current Record – 20-23-3

Last Ten Games – 3-6-1; Streak – W2

The Edmonton Oilers may be among the bottom ten teams of the league, but don’t tell them that. As of late, they have picked up their play a bit. The offense led by Connor McDavid is improving, but they need to do something about that defense. Before winning their last two games, they allowed 15 goals in their last five games, with nine of those coming in back-to-back contests. They will need a big run to make up ground in the Wild Card race.

#9 Vegas Golden Knights (11)

Current Record – 29-11-3

Last Ten Games – 7-2-1; Streak – L1

Isn’t it more fun when the Golden Knights win? They have been up and down as of late, winning just two of their last five games. Two of those are one-goal losses to the Blues and Predators, which is obviously nothing to be ashamed of. They need a big rebound against a strong Tampa Bay team, or they could fall into a bit of a slump. They might not want to do that, as everyone would immediately jump off the bandwagon.

#10 San Jose Sharks (11)

Current Record – 24-13-6

Last Ten Games – 6-2-2; Streak – W3

The Sharks are wedged between the Flames and the Golden Knights (honestly, didn’t think I would be saying that one this season), as they continue to push toward the playoffs. With only two regulation losses in their last ten games, including winning their last three contests, they are fairly safe moving forward.

January 17, 2018