Down the Frozen River

Tag: Western Conference

  • Game of the Week: March 25-31

    Everyone, this is your ghost writer speaking. Connor is preoccupied this week, so I’m taking over to tell you about this humdinger of a matchup for this week’s DTFR Game of the Week.

    And also to apologize for not having a cool looking table recapping every night of this week’s action leading up to Sunday’s main attraction in the Western Conference as the Minnesota Wild (36-33-9 record, 81 points, 6th in the Central Division) pay a visit to the Arizona Coyotes (37-33-8, 82 points, 4th in the Pacific Division).


    Gila River Arena will be in the spotlight as the Top-2 teams outside of the Western Conference wild card race go head-to-head with the chance to help one of the teams currently in control of a wild card position clinch a berth in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

    Confused yet?

    If Arizona loses in any form on Sunday against the Wild, the Dallas Stars will punch their ticket to the 2019 postseason leaving one final spot remaining in the Western Conference.

    Though the Winnipeg Jets (94 points in 78 games played) lead the Nashville Predators (94 points in 79 GP) and St. Louis Blues (92 points in 78 GP) in the Central Division and the Calgary Flames (103 points in 78 GP) lead the San Jose Sharks (97 points in 78 GP) and Vegas Golden Knights (91 points in 79 GP) in the Pacific Division, the First Round matchups across the board in the Western Conference are still to be determined.

    The Central Division is a tight race with the current three divisional playoff position holders battling down the wire for the regular season divisional title.

    The Pacific Division can be clinched by the Flames on Sunday if they defeat the Sharks in any fashion.

    For Minnesota, a win on Sunday would leapfrog the Wild over the Coyotes in the wild card race and put them two points behind the Colorado Avalanche (85 points in 78 GP) for the last playoff berth in the West.

    For Arizona, a win on Sunday would provide the Coyotes with a little cushion over the Wild and leave Arizona trailing the Avalanche by one point in the wild card race.

    The Coyotes lost to Colorado in their most recent game, 3-2, in overtime on Friday. The Wild defeated the Golden Knights, 3-2, on Friday.

    Both teams enter Sunday knowing they control their own destiny in the immediate future as the Avalanche are off until Monday night’s battle in St. Louis.

    Colorado doesn’t have an easy road ahead, however, despite their 6-0-1 record in their last seven outings– the Avs have four games remaining in six nights, including one in St. Louis on Monday and a home game against the Edmonton Oilers on Tuesday prior to hosting the Jets on Thursday and closing out the regular season in San Jose next Saturday.

    Minnesota (3-6-1 in their last 10 games) enters Sunday on the heels of a, 3-2, win over Vegas on Friday after posting a 2-6-1 record in their previous nine games.

    Arizona (3-4-3 in their last 10 games) has lost six out their last seven games and went 1-3-3 in that span, but has a 9-1-1 record in their last 11 home games.

    The Wild and Coyotes are tied in the season series, 1-1-0, through two meetings at Xcel Energy Center prior to Sunday. Minnesota picked up a, 2-1, win on Oct. 16th against Arizona before losing, 4-3, on Nov. 27th to the Coyotes.

    Minnesota is 13-3-3 in their last 19 games against the Coyotes and enters the Grand Canyon State to face a familiar foe.

    Darcy Kuemper (25-19-8 record, 2.39 goals against average, .922 save percentage in 52 GP) was originally drafted by the Wild 161st overall in the 2009 NHL Draft and will make his 20th consecutive start for the Coyotes in the crease.

    Kuemper stopped 26 out of 28 shots faced in Arizona’s, 2-1, loss to Minnesota on Oct. 16th and is 14-6-3 in his last 23 starts.

    Since Jan. 6th, he has a 20-8-5 record with a 2.14 GAA and .929 SV% while the Coyotes have been battling injuries.

    Nick Schmaltz signed a seven-year extension with the club on Saturday and remains out with a lower body injury, while Antti Raanta (lower body– out for the season) and Kyle Capobiano (lower body) will also be unavailable for Rick Tocchet‘s lineup on Sunday.

    Arizona’s hard charging offense has scored nine goals in their last seven games and is led by Clayton Keller (14-32–46 totals) this season. Defenseman, Oliver Ekman-Larsson (14-29–43 totals) is the only other Coyote with more than 40 points and has seven goals and eight assists since Feb. 21st– tied for the 2nd most by a defender in the league during that span.

    Tampa Bay Lightning blue liner, Victor Hedman, has 17 points to Ekman-Larsson’s 15 points in that span.

    Coyotes third liner, Alex Galchenyuk, leads his club in goals with 17 this season.

    Across the ice, Devan Dubnyk (30-27-6, 2.57 GAA, .912 SV% in 65 GP) is expected to get the start for the Wild as Ryan Donato has seven points (two goals, five assists) in his past seven games for Minnesota.

    Zach Parise (26-33–59 totals) leads the team in scoring, while Eric Staal has 20 points (14 goals, six assists) in his last 22 games against Arizona.

    Mikko Koivu (knee), Matt Dumba (upper body) and Parise (lower body) will all be unavailable to Wild head coach, Bruce Boudreau‘s lineup on Sunday.

    Boudreau perhaps put it best following Friday night’s win in Las Vegas for Sunday’s preview against Arizona– “I think whoever loses is probably for sure out.”

    It’s hard not to agree with that sentiment given both teams will have three games remaining on the schedule after Sunday wraps up and the loser will have an almost insurmountable deficit in the wild card standings.

    That said, look for the red-hot on home ice Coyotes to keep Minnesota down in what’s sure to be a wild matchup as the two teams tempt fate.

    Tune into the matchup on ESPN+ at 5 p.m. ET.

  • DTFR Podcast #150- Improper Twelve

    DTFR Podcast #150- Improper Twelve

    The DTFR Duo runs through some Tampa Bay Lightning franchise records, Conor McGregor reactions, hands out more awards, fixes the NHL and takes a look at how things are shaping up in the Pacific Division for the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show onPatreon.

  • Numbers Game: 2018-19 League Forecast Entering March

    Happy Meteorological Spring (and when the time comes, actual Spring too as the Spring Equinox falls on… well, it’s written on the calendar in your office somewhere).

    Of course, the only day that really matters in March is the 18th (you thought I was going to say the 17th, but we can’t all pretend to be Irish now, can we?).

    If you’re new to the sport, that’s the day the Lord Stanley of Preston first presented the idea of the Dominion Hockey Challenge Cup back in 1892 and thus the Stanley Cup was first played for and awarded in 1893.

    The original Cup resides in an old bank vault at the Hockey Hall of Fame in Toronto, Ontario and was purchased for ten guineas, which was $48.67 at the time or almost $1,400 in contemporary times.

    Anyway, March is a pretty important month.

    Teams have added or subtracted to their rosters from the trade deadline and are looking to go down the stretch without any additional injuries or worries heading into the postseason (or for some, the offseason).

    Feeling lucky? Is this the year your bracket won’t be busted in the First Round? Let the madness begin with a look at the latest standings forecast* across the league based on all 31 NHL teams’ performances through February 28, 2019.

    *Standard disclaimer: This forecast is not an exact science, but rather an educated guess among recent and season long trends, with a foundation steeped in recent records over the last few seasons.

    In simple terms, just focus on the standing within the division and less on the point spread. A team isn’t eliminated from postseason contention until they are mathematically eliminated.

    Anything can still happen (relatively, of course).

    Projected Standings After Five Months

    Eastern Conference

    Atlantic Division

    1. p-Tampa Bay Lightning, 121 points (65 games played entering March 1st)
    2. x-Boston Bruins, 115 points (64 GP)
    3. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 105 points (64 GP)
    4. wc1-Montreal Canadiens, 103 points (64 GP)
    5. wc2-Buffalo Sabres, 90 points (63 GP)
    6. Florida Panthers, 82 points (63 GP)
    7. Ottawa Senators, 61 points (64 GP)
    8. Detroit Red Wings, 60 points (64 GP)

    In the Atlantic Division, the Tampa Bay Lightning are still on pace for what could almost be the best regular season in league history. Their franchise record ten-game winning streak was halted by the re-hot Boston Bruins on Feb. 28th.

    Tampa should still lock up the division (if not the President’s Trophy) with ease, though they are beatable– as proven by the Bruins recent win (ignoring the back-to-back games), as well as the St. Louis Blues’ 1-0 overtime victory on Feb. 7th (more on the Blues later).

    Boston, meanwhile, is surging at the right time. After going 7-7-0 in December and 6-3-3 in January, the B’s went without a regulation loss in the month of February, finishing with an 11-0-2 record.

    It was the 9th time in franchise history and first time since November 2011, that the Bruins went without a regulation loss in an entire calendar month.

    Not to be outdone, the Toronto Maple Leafs are still very alive and well in a divisional spot and for the second straight season appear destined to battle the Bruins in a First Round rematch from last season.

    At least one of the Eastern Conference wild card spots in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs will be filled by an Atlantic Division team– the first of which being the Montreal Canadiens.

    The Habs are in the hunt and could knock the Maple Leafs out of the last divisional spot with a good run down the stretch, while the second wild card spot is a little harder to project.

    It could be the Buffalo Sabres or it could very well be a team that’s surging in the Metropolitan Division.

    Metropolitan Division

    1. y-New York Islanders, 113 points (63 GP)
    2. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 101 points (63 GP)
    3. x-Washington Capitals, 92 points (64 GP)
    4. Carolina Hurricanes, 89 points (63 GP)
    5. Pittsburgh Penguins, 87 points (63 GP)
    6. New York Rangers, 77 points (63 GP)
    7. Philadelphia Flyers, 74 points (64 GP)
    8. New Jersey Devils, 61 points (64 GP)

    John Tavares wasn’t well-received in his first trip back to Long Island since leaving the New York Islanders for the Leafs in free agency last July, however, Barry Trotz has been adored by Isles fans as the coach of the Metropolitan Division’s best team.

    Despite adding a lot of firepower leading up to the trade deadline, the Columbus Blue Jackets aren’t quite a surefire powerhouse in the division, but they should be good enough for home ice advantage in the First Round and a rematch with the defending Stanley Cup champion, Washington Capitals.

    It’s a wide-open race for two or three potential playoff spots in the Metropolitan Division, as the Capitals, Carolina Hurricanes and Pittsburgh Penguins all have their sights set on one of two remaining divisional spots or at least one wild card spot in the postseason.

    Despite the Capitals edging the Hurricanes and Penguins in this forecast, gut feeling indicates there’s sure to be an upset before the brackets are even finalized.

    Carolina is playing really well lately and as those bunch of jerks have shown all season long– you can’t count them out. They also reached 70 points in 61 games played for just the second time in franchise history this season.

    The last time they did that was in the 2005-06 season– you know, the one they went on to beat the Edmonton Oilers in the 2006 Stanley Cup Final.

    As for the New York Rangers and Philadelphia Flyers, well, there’s always a chance things go south for some of the teams ahead of them– except the Rangers are rebuilding and the Flyers have gone zero weeks without an injury to one of the eight goaltenders they’ve used this season.

    Western Conference

    Central Division

    1. y-Winnipeg Jets, 104 points (63 GP)
    2. x-St. Louis Blues, 100 points (63 GP)
    3. x-Nashville Predators, 93 points (66 GP)
    4. wc1-Colorado Avalanche, 92 points (64 GP)
    5. Minnesota Wild, 85 points (64 GP)
    6. Dallas Stars, 84 points (64 GP)
    7. Chicago Blackhawks, 75 points (64 GP)

    The Western Conference as a whole has been weaker than the Eastern Conference this season, but no division has been quite as lively as the Central Division.

    While the Winnipeg Jets soar into the postseason as the top-team in the Central, the St. Louis Blues are attempting to go from last to first– and then some.

    St. Louis might not stop at potentially leading the Central Division by the time the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs begin– they could just very well go on to win the Cup. The Blues are that hot.

    Meanwhile, the Nashville Predators added a lot of grit leading up to the trade deadline, acquiring Cody McLeod, Brian Boyle and Wayne Simmonds to bolster their crunch to go along with new addition, Mikael Granlund‘s scoring ability.

    Anyway, they’ve been slipping as of late and appear destined to miss out on home ice advantage in what will likely be a First Round matchup with St. Louis.

    Finally, one of the Western wild cards will surely come from the Central Division teams. Whether that’s the Colorado Avalanche, Minnesota Wild or Dallas Stars will depend on how hot Colorado’s first line is and/or how injured the Wild and Stars are.

    Kudos to the Chicago Blackhawks for setting the second half of the season ablaze, though not nearly as mightily as the Blues have, but they’ll still end up last in the Central, but about mid-pack league-wide.

    Pacific Division

    1. z-Calgary Flames, 111 points (64 GP)
    2. x-San Jose Sharks, 107 points (64 GP)
    3. x-Vegas Golden Knights, 100 points (65 GP)
    4. wc2-Arizona Coyotes, 91 points (64 GP)
    5. Vancouver Canucks, 88 points (65 GP)
    6. Edmonton Oilers, 84 points (64 GP)
    7. Anaheim Ducks, 75 points (64 GP)
    8. Los Angeles Kings, 68 points (64 GP)

    In the most disappointing division of the season, the Calgary Flames have risen a cut above the rest in the West. Not only do they look to lead the conference, but they look to do so in style.

    The Flames are a team that’s destined for a deeper run than just a First or Second Round exit in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs, but how much will recent playoff experience for the San Jose Sharks and Vegas Golden Knights play into Calgary’s chances of going far?

    Vegas hasn’t been as dominant as they were in their inaugural season, however the Sharks have also had a few slip ups in the last month.

    Both teams are looking like they’ll meet in the First Round– a round sooner than their Second Round matchup last postseason. It’s a rematch for the ages for the Golden Knights, as the young franchise looks to continue to add to the nearly 30 years of dismal playoff failure for San Jose.

    One of the biggest– and most pleasant– surprises in the Western Conference? The Arizona Coyotes.

    The team is destined for a wild card spot this season and just might spoil the party for more than just who they cut out of the playoff picture.

    For the Vancouver Canucks, it’s a battle until the end. They might make it, they might not, but next season should be better– just stay the course.

    And if you’re the Edmonton Oilers, Anaheim Ducks and/or the Los Angeles Kings, you’ve got a lot of work to do in the offseason.

  • Vegas Golden Knights 2018-19 Forecast Through 62 Games

    Coming off a 3-2 shootout loss to the Boston Bruins on Wednesday, the Vegas Golden Knights (32-25-5, 69 points, 3rd in the Pacific Division) have 20 games remaining in the 2018-19 regular season.

    These aren’t your father’s Golden Knights, as production is down from their inaugural season in just their 2nd season of existence.

    Though Marc-Andre Fleury (29-18-5 record, 2.60 goals against average, .908 save percentage in 52 games played) remains Vegas’ starter on an almost nightly basis, backup goaltender, Malcolm Subban (3-6-0, 2.76 GAA, .912 SV% in 10 GP) has struggled to carry his own weight.

    Despite bringing in Paul Stastny via free agency and Max Pacioretty via trade, the Golden Knights haven’t been immune to the injury bug this season.

    Stastny and Pacioretty themselves have joined Reilly Smith and others throughout the lineup on the injured reserve or out of playing action for various points of the season.

    While the Pacific Division title might be out of reach for Vegas this season, a divisional spot in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs is all but assured as long as the floor doesn’t fallout from underneath Gerard Gallant and his players.

    Of note, the Arizona Coyotes are emerging once again with a late season push for the playoffs– and this time around, they’re doing it without their starting goaltender, Antti Raanta (out for the season due to injury).

    Plus the Vancouver Canucks are still in contention and, well, that’s about it, realistically among Pacific Division teams that still have a chance for the last divisional spot and/or a Western Conference wild card berth.

    Anyway, back to the Golden Knights.

    Here’s a look at the latest Vegas forecast– keeping in mind there are many variables that can and will effect the final outcome, such as injuries and/or being called up, assigned, traded, lucky or unlucky.

    This forecast is just an educated guess. It’s a glimpse of what could be or could’ve been by the end of the regular season.

    As always, my degree is in communication– not math– and hockey is naturally steeped in context and holistic unpredictability. Nothing can account for sheer puck luck, the odd bounce or a blown call.

    If a player reaches the expected outcome, they’ve met expectations. If said player exceeds the forecasted stats, they’ve exceeded expectations (naturally). Of course, if a player does not perform, then they did not live up to expectations.

    On a game-to-game basis, whatever’s on the scoresheet can indicate general trends that can be further broken down into an educated forecast.

    At best, it’s a guess. At worst, well, it doesn’t really matter– it’s not like Golden Knights General Manager George McPhee is reading this and making his roster decisions based on what’s here, right?

    If he is, I’d like a job, please. Thanks.

    Vegas Golden Knights Forecast Through 62 Games (20 Games Remaining)
    WordPress, when are you going to make the ”gallery” option again (and actually make it good like how it used to be)?

    Among forwards, Vegas’ consistent first line last season of Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson and Smith hasn’t had as much consistent luck and skill this season.

    Though Smith has battled injury this season, Marchessault remains one of the Golden Knights most consistent performers expected to lead his team in goals (25) and points (54) with 25-29–54 expected totals.

    Now what about Karlsson?

    Good question, what about him? Things haven’t gone exactly as planned in terms of capitalizing on his breakout season last season with a new contract in the offseason and higher expectations for this season.

    Karlsson’s bridge, one-year, extension last summer coming off the backs of a 43-goal season has only managed 18 goals thus far– including four goals in the last 22 games for the Golden Knights.

    Given his current trend, Karlsson is expected to amass 21-23–44 totals. He’d be tied with Pacioretty for 2nd place in expected goals (21) and 3rd in expected points (44) on the roster, but nowhere near the emergent star in the making that he was last season.

    While he very well could bounce back– similar to Smith in nature, following a good-year, bad-year, good-year, bad-year pattern– the phrase “what have you done for me yesterday” won’t help him in his next contract negotiation this summer unless McPhee gives him the benefit of the doubt.

    Meanwhile, Alex Tuch is expected to finish the season with a career-high 20-33–53 expected totals.

    That’s comforting to hear for a team that needs to rely on secondary scoring in the midst of a recession in primary production.

    Tuch is expected to lead in assists (33), followed by Smith (30) and Marchessault (29), while Marchessault is destined to lead in points (54) over Tuch (53) and Karlsson (44).

    On defense, Vegas’ blue line will finish off the season being led by Shea Theodore (11-21–32 expected totals), followed by Colin Miller (30 expected points) and Nate Schmidt (25 expected points despite missing the first 20 games of the season while serving a suspension for testing positive for a performance enhancing drug).

    In net, Fleury looks like he’s bound to break under the weight of all the minutes he’s been playing and will play this season. A 2.74 expected GAA and .909 expected SV% is not starting goaltender material, unless we’re talking about Sergei Bobrovsky with the Columbus Blue Jackets or something.

    But it’s not like Gallant can really count on his current backup to offset some of Fleury’s load. Subban’s expected 2.70 GAA and .912 SV% isn’t tremendous either.

    If anything, it’s an indication that McPhee could help bolster his team with the acquisition of an extra goaltender by the trade deadline.

    Someone like Ryan Miller, 38-years-old, could help steal some crucial points for the Golden Knights down the stretch if the San Jose Sharks aren’t already in the process of completing a trade for the goaltender with the Anaheim Ducks.

    Growing pains are a fact of life– especially in sports– and Vegas is going through puberty already in its 2nd season. This season’s been full of highs, lows and awkward phases that hopefully will end in a glow up.

    Otherwise we’ll all be looking back at this season shaking our heads at how it could pull off that much denim or something back in the day.

  • Bruins beat Avs for the first time at home in 21 years, 2-1 in OT

    Brad Marchand‘s 14th career game-winning overtime goal clinched a, 2-1, victory for the Boston Bruins over the Colorado Avalanche on Sunday afternoon at TD Garden.

    Following the game, the Bruins partied like it was *1998 (it was Boston’s first win on home ice against the Avalanche since March 30, 1998– a, 4-1, victory for the B’s).

    Jaroslav Halak (14-9-4 record, 2.44 goals against average, .921 save percentage in 29 games played) made 35 saves on 36 shots against for a .921 SV% in the overtime win for the Bruins.

    Semyon Varlamov (13-13-8, 2.91 GAA, .906 SV% in 35 GP) stopped 33 out of 35 shots faced for a .906 SV% in the overtime loss for Colorado.

    The Bruins improve to 31-17-8 (70 points) on the season and move ahead of the Montreal Canadiens for 3rd place in the Atlantic Division, while the Avalanche fell to 22-22-11 (55 points) and remain 6th in the Central Division (tied in points with the Chicago Blackhawks, but ahead in the standings thanks to having a game in-hand on Chicago).

    Boston leads Montreal by one point in the standings for the final divisional spot in the Atlantic. Colorado is four points out of a wild card spot in the Western Conference.

    Prior to Sunday’s matinee, the Bruins hosted the Los Angeles Kings for a Saturday afternoon matchup. Boston defeated the Kings, 5-4, in overtime thanks to an overtime game-winning power play goal from Patrice Bergeron (20) at 2:34 of the overtime period.

    Bergeron was honored prior to the game with gifts– including the traditional “Silver Stick”– and a ceremony for having played in his 1,000th career regular season game on Tuesday against the New York Islanders.

    Charlie McAvoy, Danton Heinen, David Krejci and Marchand also had goals for the Bruins in the win, while Alex Iafallo, Anze Kopitar, Nate Thompson and Oscar Fantanberg notched goals for Los Angeles.

    Tuukka Rask (17-8-4 , 2.36 GAA, .922 SV% in 30 GP) made 25 saves on 29 shots against in the win for Boston.

    Entering Sunday, Bruce Cassidy made minor adjustments to his lineup, inserting Trent Frederic on the fourth line, centering Jake DeBrusk and Joakim Nordstrom, while scratching David Backes.

    Sean Kuraly, Noel Acciari and Chris Wagner were reunited on the third line.

    Marchand, Bergeron and Heinen were kept together on the first line with Peter Cehlarik lining up alongside Krejci and David Pastrnak.

    Steven Kampfer (healthy scratch, on conditioning loan to the Providence Bruins, AHL) and Matt Grzelcyk (lower body) joined Backes out of the lineup on Sunday.

    Almost midway through the opening frame, Heinen got a stick up high on Erik Johnson and received a two-minute minor penalty at 9:54. The Avalanche didn’t convert on the ensuing power play.

    Almost five minutes later, Gabriel Landeskog tripped Heinen and presented Boston with their first power play opportunity of the afternoon at 16:19 of the first period.

    While on the power play, Torey Krug hooked Matt Calvert in effort to disrupt a shorthanded chance by Colorado. Krug was assessed an infraction and went to the box at 17:27, leaving both teams even strength at 4-on-4 for about 52 seconds before the Avs had an abbreviated power play.

    Late in the first period, Nathan MacKinnon (29) roofed a shot over Halak’s glove from close range to give Colorado the first lead of the night, 1-0, at 19:27.

    Landeskog (28) and J.T. Compher (11) collected the assist’s on MacKinnon’s goal as the Avalanche took the, 1-0, lead into the first intermission.

    After one period, Colorado led in shots on goal (12-7), takeaways (5-3), giveaways (6-4) and hits (10-9), while Boston led in blocked shots (5-4). Both teams were 50-50 in face-off win percentage, while the Avs were 0/2 on the power play and the B’s were 0/1.

    John Moore (3) tied the game, 1-1, as Bergeron acted as a screen in front of Varlamov at 3:40 of the second period. Moore fired a shot off the far post and in as McAvoy (13) and Marchand (44) picked up the assists and the Bruins tied the game.

    MacKinnon was penalized for holding at 6:18 of the second period and was followed to the penalty box almost 30 seconds later by Carl Soderberg after Soderberg interfered with McAvoy at 7:45.

    Boston had 34 seconds of a two-skater power play advantage before, but couldn’t convert on either opportunity.

    Moore sent an odd puck bounce off the curved glass next to the Bruins bench and into the net behind Varlamov, but it was immediately waved off as “no goal” with 24.1 seconds remaining in the second period.

    Through 40 minutes of action, the game was tied, 1-1, on the scoreboard, but the Avalanche maintained the advantage in shots on goal, 24-22– despite being outshot by Boston, 15-12, in the second period alone.

    Entering the third period, Colorado led in takeaways (10-6), giveaways (7-5) and hits (19-16), while the B’s led in face-off win% (56-44). Both teams had 10 blocked shots aside as the Avs were 0/2 and the Bruins were 0/3 on the power play.

    A string of hooking penalties kicked things off in the third period with Kuraly hooking Samuel Girard at 7:16, followed by Krug hooking Matt Nieto at 9:53. Finally, Colorado’s Tyson Barrie hooked Bergeron at 10:08 of the third period.

    Neither team capitalized on the special teams play.

    Late in the final frame of regulation, Sheldon Dries was penalized for holding Krug at 17:45 and the Bruins went on the power play. Despite forging a couple shots at the net, Boston couldn’t buy a power play goal.

    As time expired on regulation, the Avalanche led in shots on goal, 34-31, and the score remained tied, 1-1.

    Boston led in blocked shots (18-12), hits (28-21) and face-off win% (53-47) after 60 minutes of play, while Colorado led in takeaways (13-8) and giveaways (11-10).

    No penalties were called in the overtime period, meaning the Avs finished 0/4 and the B’s finished 0/5 on the skater advantage Sunday afternoon.

    For the 5th time in the last seven games, Boston was heading for extra hockey.

    Cassidy started Kuraly, Moore and McAvoy in overtime. Marchand, Bergeron and Krug ended overtime.

    Just past the four-minute mark of the five-minute 3-on-3 overtime period, Marchand (21) unleashed a wrist shot from about the face-off circle to Varlamov’s left side and sent the puck off an Avalanche defender and into the twine.

    Bergeron (31) and Krug (34) notched the assists on Marchand’s game-winning goal at 4:03 of overtime.

    Marchand’s goal sealed the deal on a, 2-1, win for Boston, leaving the Bruins with a 6-6 record in overtime this season. Colorado fell to 1-10 in overtime.

    The Avalanche finished the day leading in shots on goal (36-35) and giveaways (11-10), while the B’s led in blocked shots (18-12), hits (29-21) and face-off win% (53-47).

    With the win, the Bruins are now 4-0-1 in the month of February and 7-0-0 in matinee games this season.

    Boston takes on the Chicago Blackhawks on Tuesday at TD Garden before heading out for a western road trip, starting next Friday (Feb. 15th) in Anaheim, swinging through Los Angeles on Feb. 16th, San Jose on Feb. 18th, Vegas on Feb. 20th and finally St. Louis on Feb. 23rd.

    The Bruins improved to 11-3-4 in their last 18 games. Cassidy is now one win shy of his 100th behind the bench for Boston.

  • Numbers Game: 2018-19 League Forecast Entering January

    Happy New Year!

    It’s time to figure out whether or not your team has a legitimate chance of winning the Stanley Cup, making the playoffs, being a seller at the trade deadline or a basement dwelling rebuilder in desperate need of anything but what is happening right now.

    Teams have begun to reach the official halfway point in the regular season (41 games played out of an 82-game schedule) as the calendar flips from 2018 to 2019.

    Here’s a glance at the latest forecast based on how the league standings were through December 31, 2018.

    Keeping in mind, there’s no guarantees with any forecast, but rather general trends and “educated” guesses. It’s not always about the exact number of points expected on the season. Sometimes the focus is on the spread or each team’s positioning in the standings.

    There’s always context. Plus, nothing’s impossible until it’s mathematically impossible.

    So let’s take a look around the league and figure out the future– well, rest of this season, at least.

    Projected Standings After Three Months

    Eastern Conference

    Atlantic Division

    1. p-Tampa Bay Lightning, 125 points (40 GP entering Jan. 1st)
    2. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 111 points (39 GP)
    3. x-Boston Bruins, 98 points (39 GP)
    4. wc2-Montreal Canadiens, 97 points (40 GP)
    5. Buffalo Sabres, 96 points (40 GP)
    6. Florida Panthers, 84 points (38 GP)
    7. Detroit Red Wings, 75 points (41 GP)
    8. Ottawa Senators, 72 points (40 GP)

    The Tampa Bay Lightning are the dominant team in the NHL right now. There’s no other comparison. They’re in a league of their own.

    Though the Toronto Maple Leafs have surged into one of the league’s most prominent teams this season, they’re no match for the Lightning in the regular season standings Atlantic Division race.

    The postseason might be another story– too bad we won’t get to see these teams meet up in the Eastern Conference Final with the current playoff format.

    For the Boston Bruins, a lackluster 7-7-0 month of December has taken a toll on their outlook. Sure, winning five out of their last seven games is a good sign and all, but missed opportunities and blown chances regardless of the injury status of many of their players this season has brought them back to Earth this season.

    Regression in hockey, however, is to be expected– even for teams that outperformed expectations. Last season was just that– exceeded expectations in the regular season for Boston.

    How will Bruce Cassidy jumpstart scoring depth throughout his lineup if General Manager Don Sweeney doesn’t do anything to add? Time will tell.

    But they’re running out of time as long as Claude Julien and Phil Housley are in consideration for some Jack Adams Award nominations.

    Though the Buffalo Sabres have slumped a bit in the last month, the Montreal Canadiens have solidified themselves as a potential spoiler in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

    If it’s not them, it’s definitely Buffalo for sure.

    The race for the Eastern Conference wild card spots should come down to three teams– Buffalo, Montreal and the New York Islanders (unless the Islanders snag a divisional spot in the Metropolitan Divsion– more on that later).

    Look, as good as some players on the Florida Panthers are, it’s not happening this year.

    And for all the hype regarding the Detroit Red Wings early in the season? Yeah, it’s the same as last year. They’re not doing so hot either.

    There’s some good news if you’re an Ottawa Senators fan– wait, they traded their 2019 1st round pick in the draft to the Colorado Avalanche as part of the three-team Matt Duchene trade and didn’t protect it (because they chose to protect 2018’s 1st round pick and offer up 2019’s instead)? Oh. Never mind.

    Metropolitan Division

    1. y-Washington Capitals, 109 points (38 GP)
    2. x-Pittsburgh Penguins, 103 points (39 GP)
    3. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 102 points (39 GP)
    4. wc1-New York Islanders, 98 points (38 GP)
    5. New York Rangers, 90 points (38 GP)
    6. Carolina Hurricanes, 80 points (38 GP)
    7. New Jersey Devils, 80 points (38 GP)
    8. Philadelphia Flyers, 78 points (38 GP)

    As we get closer to “the stretch” things are heating up in the Metropolitan Division, which might not be as full of garbage as once thought earlier in the year.

    For now, the Washington Capitals appear to be in a serious “defend the castle” mood. They’re the defending champions and they’re pretty hard to beat.

    But the Pittsburgh Penguins are surging. The Pens are on a seven-game winning streak and they’re outscoring their opponents, 28-9, during that span.

    What’s necessary to take into account in the divisional spots in the Metropolitan Division is not that the Capitals should lead the way, but rather, that Washington only has a six-point lead in the current forecast over the Penguins– and seven points over the Columbus Blue Jackets (who somehow find themselves in the “top dog” conversation?)– therefore, anything is up for grabs.

    If the Islanders don’t scratch and claw their way into a divisional spot, they’ll be a wild card team.

    It’s not a completely lost season for the New York Rangers, but it’s not one that’ll end with a playoff berth either.

    The same could almost be said for the Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils, except one’s a little more inconsistent (and worse off), while the other’s just worse.

    Sure, the Devils are nowhere to be found this season, but Mackenzie Blackwood could change that outlook next year.

    And if Carter Hart‘s ready to take on the full-time role of starting netminder for the Philadelphia Flyers that probably wouldn’t do much for them this season, but it’s promising moving forward.

    This year’s Flyers team just goes to show that the problem’s beyond a GM and coaching change, so don’t be surprised to see some roster turnover.

    Western Conference

    Central Division

    1. z-Winnipeg Jets, 107 points (39 GP)
    2. x-Nashville Predators, 96 points (40 GP)
    3. x-Colorado Avalanche, 91 points (40 GP)
    4. wc2-Dallas Stars, 89 points (40 GP)
    5. Minnesota Wild, 87 points (38 GP)
    6. St. Louis Blues, 81 points (37 GP)
    7. Chicago Blackhawks, 77 points (41 GP)

    The Winnipeg Jets are one of two teams in serious contention for the Western Conference regular season title– and the Nashville Predators won’t even get to raise a banner next season for it.

    Nashville’s been on shaky ground for the last month and, as a result, it shows in the latest forecast. Inadequacy ruptures standards or expectations.

    Anyway, between Winnipeg and the Calgary Flames one of those teams will be the best in the West at the end of the regular season.

    It says something as a whole about the Central Division when the Colorado Avalanche are currently forecasted to slip into a divisional spot in the postseason with 91 points in the standings.

    Usually about 95 points puts you within the wild card range and anything 98 or above brings you into serious contention for a divisional berth.

    What all of this means is there’s a lot of uncertainty from the Avs, Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild in terms of where they end up, ultimately.

    All three teams have been all over the place– at times– this season.

    Fear not, though, they’re nothing like the St. Louis Blues and Chicago Blackhawks. Nothing makes sense in St. Louis, short of obvious locker room problems and a lack of leadership.

    Whereas, in Chicago, the game plan was already reset to “longterm” last season by default (having finished last in the division). Jeremy Colliton‘s job security is safe for now.

    There weren’t high expectations coming into the season for the Blackhawks and there weren’t immediate expectations for Colliton in their transition from Joel Quenneville to their 33-year-old head coach.

    Essentially, firing Quenneville when they did was an easy way out of having to make things more awkward(?) with a rebuild, but it kind of was anyway given when they did it.

    At least they’re not their rivals in St. Louis– let alone the Los Angeles Kings– where expectations were high after reaping some rewards in the offseason.

    Pacific Division

    1. y-Calgary Flames, 103 points (40 GP)
    2. x-Vegas Golden Knights, 100 points (42 GP)
    3. x-San Jose Sharks, 98 points (41 GP)
    4. wc1-Anaheim Ducks, 92 points (41 GP)
    5. Vancouver Canucks, 83 points (42 GP)
    6. Edmonton Oilers, 82 points (39 GP)
    7. Arizona Coyotes, 76 points (39 GP)
    8. Los Angeles Kings, 75 points (40 GP)

    The Flames are red hot. Can they make 2019 more like 1989 and less like 2004? Does having a goaltender even matter any more?

    Luck’s starting to turn in Vegas as the Golden Knights have come alive and look to make a serious claim at potentially knocking Calgary off from the Pacific Division lead– if they can catch them first.

    Despite their ups and downs, the San Jose Sharks are still a divisional playoff berth kind of team. Expect them to be out of the playoffs before the Western Conference Final though. Surely Martin Jones‘ below average season has to catch up to him at some point, regardless of scoring power.

    With no real competition below them, the Anaheim Ducks are a wild card team that will likely continue to live in the First Round elimination hell until John Gibson single handedly plays every position for the club.

    The Vancouver Canucks have Elias Pettersson and look ready to bring up Thatcher Demko for a full-time role in net, so it’s kind of on, but a little late. Next season!

    Everyone said Ken Hitchcock would turn around the Edmonton Oilers and was dancing in the streets when his first half-dozen games brought the Oilers back into being relevant.

    Well, everyone, except me. Hitchcock’s shtick isn’t fit for the contemporary NHL anymore and his last (and only) Cup win came 20 years ago.

    Sure he might impart some lessons on leadership, but as long as Peter Chiarelli is trading away Drake Caggiula for Brandon Manning and ensuring guys like Milan Lucic are part of the longterm vision…

    The Arizona Coyotes haven’t panned out and it’s not the numbers that have been lying to them. Dylan Strome, their 3rd overall pick in 2015, didn’t develop as planned– whether through the fault of the Coyotes or not– and they traded him.

    That draft was four years ago and Mitch Marner was selected after Strome by the Maple Leafs. Hindsight is 20/20, but still.

    If it’s any consolation, Mikko Rantanen was selected by Colorado, 10th overall, so Carolina, New Jersey, Philly, Columbus and San Jose all missed out on one of the current leaders in scoring.

    Scouting’s not Arizona’s strong-suit from year-to-year, or rather, asset management as a whole it’s just… …not there.

    Finally, Los Angeles, the Grim Reaper’s at the door. Bring out your dead (Cup hopes and dreams for 2019). It’s time to rebuild.

  • B’s beat Ducks, 3-1, on milestone night for Krejci, Krug

    David Krejci became the 10th player to reach 600 points with the Boston Bruins on Thursday as a result of his insurance goal in Boston’s, 3-1, victory over the Anaheim Ducks at TD Garden.

    Krejci reached the 600-point plateau in his 804th career NHL game.

    Fellow Czech forward, David Pastrnak had a three-point night (1-2–3 totals) and Torey Krug became the all-time leader in assists by a US-born defender in Bruins franchise history, notching his 200th career assist with Boston in the win.

    Jaroslav Halak (11-5-2 record, 2.20 goals against average, .930 save percentage in 20 games played) made 24 saves on 25 shots against for a .930 SV% in the win for the Bruins, while Anaheim’s John Gibson (15-10-4, 2.54 GAA, .926 SV% in 30 GP) turned aside 28 out of 31 shots faced for a .903 SV% in the loss.

    The B’s improved to 19-12-4 (42 points) on the season and remained in 4th place in the Atlantic Division, while the Ducks fell to 19-13-5 (43 points) and remained in 3rd place in the Pacific Division, tied in points with the San Jose Sharks, though the Sharks have two games in-hand.

    Boston currently holds the first wild card spot in the Eastern Conference and trail the Buffalo Sabres by three points for the final Atlantic divisional spot in the postseason.

    On Tuesday, Boston placed recent waiver acquisition, Gemel Smith, on waivers for the purpose of assignment to Providence. The Bruins also assigned defender, Jeremy Lauzon, to the P-Bruins on the same day.

    Smith, 24, (2-1–3 totals in 17 games with the Bruins and Dallas Stars this season) cleared waivers Wednesday and subsequently joined Providence’s roster.

    Lauzon, 21, made his NHL debut on Oct. 25th against the Philadelphia Flyers and recorded his first career NHL goal on Nov. 11th against the Vegas Golden Knights.

    He had 1-3–4 totals in 15 games with Boston prior to being assigned and had 1-6–7 totals in 52 games with Providence last season (his first professional season).

    Bruce Cassidy made no changes to his lineup from Monday night’s, 4-0, victory in Montreal to Thursday night’s battle with Anaheim and indicated a minor injury for Tuukka Rask, as well as Boston’s recent record against the Ducks influenced his decision in starting Halak on Thursday.

    Prior to Thursday’s final outcome, the Bruins had lost nine-straight games against the Ducks in the regular season.

    As a result of Tuesday’s transactions, the only players listed out of the lineup against Anaheim for Boston were all injury related, as Zdeno Chara (knee, left MCL), Patrice Bergeron (rib/sternoclavicular), Urho Vaakanainen (concussion), Jake DeBrusk (concussion) and Kevan Miller (larynx) remain out of action.

    Bergeron addressed the media after Thursday’s morning skate and indicated the team doctors and trainers will have the final say in his return to the lineup– though he is pushing for Saturday or Sunday.

    John Moore tripped Jakob Silfverberg at 3:00 of the first period and gave the Ducks an early power play as the action got going Thursday night.

    Anaheim did not convert on the ensuing skater advantage and moments later was charged with a tripping infraction of their own as Andrew Cogliano got his stick tangled in Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson‘s legs at 6:44.

    While in the waning seconds of their first power play of the night, Bruins forward, Danton Heinen, interfered with Anaheim’s Nick Ritchie at 8:41 and ended the Bruins power play prematurely.

    After one period of play, both teams remained tied, 0-0, with the B’s leading in shots on goal, 8-7, despite the Ducks leading in just about every other statistical category.

    Anaheim led in blocked shots (7-2), takeaways (6-3), giveaways (12-4) and face-off win percentage (65-35), while both teams recorded seven hits aside entering the first intermission.

    The Ducks were 0/2 on the power play, while Boston went 0/1 after 20 minutes.

    Hampus Lindholm kicked off a string of action in the second period as Pastrnak drew an interference penalty, yielding another Bruins power play at 7:44 of the second period.

    On the ensuing skater advantage the Bruins almost flubbed the puck out of the zone, had the puck taken an awkward bounce off of David Backes‘ stick.

    Instead, the rubber biscuit landed on the stick blade of Krug’s, which the defender quickly flung it to Pastrnak (22) for the surefire power play goal at 8:19.

    Krug (17) and Backes (6) had the assists on the goal and the Bruins led, 1-0.

    Brad Marchand found himself all over the scoresheet for various reasons Thursday night, starting with a slashing minor against Ryan Getzlaf at 12:20, but shortly followed up by drawing a penalty as Cogliano slashed Marchand about five minutes later.

    Boston went on the power play at 17:58 when Cogliano went back to the box for a second time, but it wasn’t long before the B’s power play came to an end.

    The Bruins won a face-off in the offensive zone and worked the puck to Pastrnak, then Marchand and finally to Krug (4) at the point, whereby No. 47 in black-and-gold blasted a shot past Gibson to make it, 2-0, at 18:05 of the second period.

    Marchand (24) and Pastrnak (21) had the assists on the power play goal and the Ducks didn’t even possess the puck on the short-lived, unsuccessful, penalty kill.

    Entering the second intermission, Boston was ahead, 2-0, on the scoreboard and, 18-15, in shots on goal. Anaheim led in blocked shots (9-6), giveaways (15-7), hits (19-17) and face-off win% (54-46), while both teams had eight takeaways each.

    The Ducks were 0/3 on the power play and the B’s were 2/3.

    Though the score wouldn’t remain the same, Boston would go on to improve to 14-1-0 when leading after two periods and Anaheim fell to 6-9-2 when trailing after 40 minutes.

    The Bruins also improved to 12-2-2 when scoring first in a game this season.

    Brandon Carlo hooked Brian Gibbons at 3:03 of the third period, but Anaheim’s power play unit went silent on all four extra skater opportunities.

    Shortly after killing off Carlo’s minor infraction, Krejci (7) rocketed a shot past Gibson at 5:21 to give the B’s a three-goal lead.

    Pastrnak (22) and Marchand (25) were credited with the assists as Pastrnak completed a three-point night and Krejci extended his point-streak to eight games (and 5-6–11 totals in those eight games).

    Getzlaf hooked Marchand at 10:14 in the game’s final penalty, but the Bruins were unsuccessful on the resulting power play.

    Late in the final frame of regulation, Josh Mahura (1) received a pass back to the point off of a face-off in Anaheim’s attacking zone and sent a slap shot past Halak for his first career NHL goal.

    Carter Rowney (5) had the only assist on the goal at 15:44 and the Ducks got on the board, 3-1.

    With about a minute remaining in regulation, Randy Carlyle pulled Gibson for an extra attacker, but it was to no avail as the Bruins secured the, 3-1, victory upon the final horn.

    Boston finished the night leading in shots on goal, 31-25, while the Ducks led in giveaways (20-8), hits (25-22) and face-off win% (55-45).

    Both teams had ten blocked shots aside as the Ducks went 0/4 on the power play and the B’s went 2/4.

    With the mandatory, league-wide, three-day Christmas break fast approaching, the Bruins finish up their pre-Christmas action with another weekend of back-to-back action at home and on the road.

    Boston faces the Nashville Predators Saturday afternoon on home ice before traveling to Raleigh, North Carolina to take on the Carolina Hurricanes on Whalers Night at PNC Arena this Sunday.

  • Game of the week: December 17-23

    The holiday break is so close we can almost taste it, but there’s still a little more work to be done before the NHL begins its three-day break on Monday. Without further ado, this week’s offerings include:

    NHL SCHEDULE: December 17-23
    TIME (ALL TIMES EASTERN) VISITOR HOST NATIONAL BROADCAST(S)/
    Result
    Monday, December 17
    7 p.m. Anaheim Pittsburgh 4-2
    7 p.m. Vegas Columbus 0-1
    7:30 p.m. Boston Montréal 4-0
    7:30 p.m. Nashville Ottawa 3-4 (OT)
    9 p.m. New York Islanders Colorado Avalanche 4-1
    Tuesday, December 18
    7 p.m. Florida Buffalo 5-2
    7 p.m. Toronto New Jersey 7-2
    7 p.m. Anaheim Ducks New York Rangers 1-3
    7 p.m. Detroit Philadelphia 2-3
    8 p.m. San Jose Minnesota 4-0
    8:30 p.m. Nashville Chicago 1-2
    8:30 p.m. Calgary Dallas 0-2
    9 p.m. St. Louis Edmonton 4-1
    9 p.m. New York Islanders Arizona Coyotes 3-1
    10 p.m. Tampa Bay Vancouver 5-2
    10:30 p.m. Winnipeg Los Angeles 1-4
    Wednesday, December 19
    8 p.m. Pittsburgh Washington 2-1
    8:30 p.m. Montréal Colorado 1-2
    Thursday, December 20
    7 p.m. Anaheim Boston SN360
    7 p.m. Florida Toronto TVAS
    7 p.m. Nashville Philadelphia ESPN+
    7 p.m. Minnesota Pittsburgh
    7 p.m. Detroit Carolina
    7 p.m. New Jersey Columbus
    8:30 p.m. Chicago Dallas
    9 p.m. Tampa Bay Calgary
    9 p.m. Montréal Arizona RDS, TSN2
    10 p.m. St. Louis Vancouver ESPN+
    10 p.m. New York Islanders Vegas Golden Knights SN360
    10:30 p.m. Winnipeg San Jose
    Friday, December 21
    7 p.m. Ottawa New Jersey RDS
    7 p.m. Buffalo Washington NBCSN, SN, TVAS
    9 p.m. Chicago Colorado ESPN+, SN360
    Saturday, December 22
    1 p.m. Nashville Boston NHLN, SN, SN1
    1 p.m. Columbus Philadelphia ESPN+
    2 p.m. Florida Detroit
    4 p.m. Montréal Vegas RDS, TSN2
    4 p.m. Los Angeles San Jose NBCSN, SN1
    4 p.m. St. Louis Calgary
    7 p.m. Colorado Arizona
    7 p.m. Anaheim Buffalo
    7 p.m. New York Rangers Toronto Maple Leafs CBC, NHLN, SN, SN1
    7 p.m. Washington Ottawa CITY, SN360, TVAS
    7 p.m. Pittsburgh Carolina
    8 p.m. Dallas Minnesota
    10 p.m. Winnipeg Vancouver CBC, SN360
    10 p.m. Tampa Bay Edmonton CITY, ESPN+, SN1
    Sunday, December 23
    12:30 p.m. Columbus New Jersey SN
    5 p.m. Boston Carolina SN1
    7 p.m. Florida Chicago ESPN+
    7 p.m. Philadelphia Flyers New York Rangers NHLN
    7:30 p.m. Detroit Toronto SN, SN360, TVAS
    8 p.m. Los Angeles Vegas
    8 p.m. Arizona San Jose
    8 p.m. New York Islanders Dallas Stars

    For those that didn’t keep count, that’s a healthy 55 tilts to keep us entertained while family members you simply adore ask a multitude of questions you’d rather they not.

    In the rivalries department, the NHL loaded us up with six showdowns this week, including Boston at Montréal, Pittsburgh at Washington, Los Angeles at San Jose, the Rangers at Toronto, Philadelphia at the Rangers and Detroit at Toronto.

    Two rematches from this spring’s edition of the Stanley Cup Playoffs will also take place: the previously mentioned Pens-Caps game and Los Angeles’ trip to Sin City Sunday night.

    Finally, the biggest player return of the week will take place tonight when F Max Domi makes his first trip back to Glendale to take on the Coyotes, the club that drafted him 12th overall in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft.

    However, of all those games highlighted, there’s still another tonight that will have my full attention. Both the Jets and Sharks entered this season with high expectations, but only one has truly flexed its muscles thus far this season. Perhaps that will be just the motivation San Jose needs to find its next gear.

    Currently in a three-way tie for first place in the Western Conference, the 22-10-2 Winnipeg Jets are technically the top team by playing one fewer game than both the Calgary Flames and Nashville Predators.

    Winnipeg’s last outing wasn’t exactly one to be proud of (the Jets fell 4-1 in Los Angeles to the lowly Kings on Tuesday), but it had been riding a five-game winning streak coming into that game. In fact, in their past 11 games, the Jets boast a 9-2-0 record that includes five overtime or shootout victories.

    To the surprise of none, Winnipeg’s greatest strength is undoubtedly its offense. Having averaged 3.56 goals per game for the entire season (the fourth-best mark in the NHL), Head Coach Peter DeBoer will certainly have a plan for how he wants his team to slow down the impressive talents of C Mark Scheifele (21-25-46 points) and RW Blake Wheeler (5-39-44) on Winnipeg’s top line.

    However, that will be a difficult task to pull off because the Jets’ attack has been even more potent than usual during this 11-game run. Since November 29, the Jets have averaged an outstanding four goals per game, which is tied with, coincidentally, San Jose for third best in the league in that time.

    The previously mentioned Scheifele and Wheeler have certainly had their fingerprints all over that dynamic attack, as they’ve posted respective 8-12-20 and 1-14-15 totals in their last 11 outings. However, they’ve also been joined by LW Nikolaj Ehlers (7-5-12), D Josh Morrissey (3-8-11 in nine games) and D Dustin Byfuglien (1-8-9 in seven games) in averaging at least a point per game during this run, creating a defensive nightmare for most teams not as talented as the Sharks on the blue line.

    The San Jose Sharks were supposed to already be atop the Western Conference – if not the entire NHL – according to many preseason reports, yet they find themselves stuck with a 19-11-5 record good enough for only second place in the Pacific Division.

    But don’t read that as the Sharks being a bad team. They’re riding a five-game winning streak and have posted a 7-1-0 record in their past eight outings, so it seems like the team is finally starting to realize its potential. The next question, of course, is just how good can this team be, but that’s an answer the Jets would rather not answer tonight.

    During this eight-game run, San Jose has been clicking on all cylinders; literally everything is gelling, and the numbers are showing just that.

    Perhaps my favorite part of the Sharks’ game right now is their attack. Currently in a tie with Ottawa for eighth-best offense on the season by averaging 3.31 goals per game, the Sharks’ effort since December 2 has made all but Tampa Bay jealous. Led by F Logan Couture‘s impressive 5-6-11 totals in the last eight games, San Jose has managed a dominant 4.25 goals per game during this run.

    Joining Couture in averaging at least a point per game since the beginning of the month are RW Timo Meier (5-5-10 in seven games played), F Tomas Hertl (4-5-9) and D Erik Karlsson (0-8-8).

    That’s right, the same Karlsson that looked like he wasn’t panning out in Silicon Valley is on a bit of a hot streak of late. His goal scoring may be down from his Ottawa days (last season’s nine goals in 71 appearances was a poor season for him, and this year’s pace has him set to register only five markers), but the 10-year NHL veteran is still making his presence known on the scorecard.

    In addition to scoring, this dynamic offense has also had some incredible influence on the defensive zone by maintaining elongated possessions. During this eight-game run, San Jose has allowed only 27.88 shots against per game, the fifth-best mark in the NHL since December 2 and only two shots worse than the Islanders’ league-leading pace set in that same time span.

    Of course, D Justin Braun (2.3 blocks per game since December 2), D Brenden Dillon (2.8 hits per game during this run) and Karlsson (11 takeaways in his past eight outings) have certainly done their fair share on the defensive end as well.

    If anyone is appreciative of that effort, it’s surely 14-7-3 G Martin Jones, tonight’s starter. Though he’s struggled for much of the season (made evident by his unusually low .901 save percentage and 2.81 GAA for the campaign), he’s shown signs of improvement lately. He’s earned five of the Sharks’ last seven wins, posting a much more familiar .936 save percentage and 1.94 GAA in his last seven starts.

    If Jones has finally rounded into form for the year, this Sharks blue line will truly begin to influence play in the offensive zone, which should be a very scary proposition for the entire Western Conference.

    When two high powered offenses are going at it, I usually side with the better of the two goaltenders to determine the game’s winner. In his past eight starts, 15-9-1 G Connor Hellebuyck has earned six wins on the back of a .91 save percentage and 2.72 GAA (both nominal improvements on his .908 season save percentage and associated 2.9 GAA).

    Compare that to Jones’ numbers, and the answer is obvious: the Sharks should come away winners tonight and send the home fans happy.

  • Numbers Game: 2018-19 League Forecast Entering December

    We’re just over a week into December, I know, but let’s all hop in the time machine and take a retroactive look at how the rest of the season should pan out based on how the league standings were through November 30, 2018.

    Things have started to cool in places around the league (like Carolina), while other clubs (like Buffalo) have heated up to become serious playoff contenders– so let’s take a look at how everything should shake out between now and the first couple of weeks of April.

    There’s no guarantees with any forecast, but general indications start to get a little clearer once the season’s hit the quarter-mark and American Thanksgiving has come and gone.

    Realistically, if your team is anywhere between 1st and 5th in your division, you’re in for the ride of your life still from now through the end of the regular season. If you’re 6th, 7th or 8th, well, it’s never too early to start thinking about the Draft lottery (plus the 2019 IIHF World Junior Championship’s coming up at the end of the month, so that’s exciting too) or about how many games it would take to go on an incredibly hot streak and jump back into the playoff picture.

    Nothing’s impossible.

    Without further ado, it’s time to glance around the league and breakdown some of the unforeseen circumstances that are yet to come.

    Projected Standings After Two Months

    Eastern Conference

    Atlantic Division

    1. y-Tampa Bay Lightning, 108 points (26 GP so far)
    2. x-Boston Bruins, 104 points (25 GP so far)
    3. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 101 points (26 GP so far)
    4. wc1-Buffalo Sabres, 91 points (27 GP so far)
    5. Montreal Canadiens, 91 points (25 GP so far)
    6. Detroit Red Wings, 85 points (25 GP so far)
    7. Florida Panthers, 84 points (24 GP so far)
    8. Ottawa Senators, 83 points (26 GP so far)

    The Tampa Bay Lightning rightfully lay claim to the crown as the leader of the Atlantic Division at regular season’s end. It doesn’t matter that Steven Stamkos has yet to record a point in six career Game 7s. The Lightning have Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson and Brayden Point on a line of their own. They don’t even need Stamkos.

    Just kidding, they still do, because that other No. 91 signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs in the offseason and just think how explosive a playoff matchup of Tampa and Toronto could be in the Battle of John Tavares Signed Where Leafs Fans Wanted Steven Stamkos To Sign Just A Couple Of Offseasons Ago, But Didn’t Because He Stayed With The Lightning.

    You know it’s going to happen.

    Actually, in the latest forecast entering December, the Boston Bruins slide out of the top spot, because injuries continue to plague their season. However, if they can recover to full health, there’s a good chance they might usurp the Maple Leafs and finish 2nd in the division, unlike what current standings dictate.

    But regaining full health is a major stipulation and part of the reason why– while Toronto is 3rd in this forecast– there’s a good chance the Bruins might (probably will) slip further as January’s forecast nears.

    This is about the time where it’s important to note the overarching focus on this forecast should be on where each team is positioned and how close in points they are to those above and below before placing any concrete emphasis on how things play out from now through the first week of April 2019.

    The Buffalo Sabres make the biggest gain in the Atlantic Division, jumping up four spots in the division standings from the basement to 4th place and a playoff berth (albeit a wild card spot).

    The Sabres 10-game winning streak– combined with the additions of Rasmus Dahlin and Jeff Skinner in the offseason– proved to be a season-defining stretch of games as Buffalo returns to Stanley Cup Playoff action for the first time since 2011 (despite the current 0-3-2 run in their last five games).

    On the outside looking in, the Montreal Canadiens slipped a spot and might be a pretender– especially if Carey Price (11-8-4 record, 2.92 goals against average, .902 save percentage in 23 games played) continues to struggle. To his credit, his GAA is under three now, so there’s that.

    The Detroit Red Wings gained some traction with the ongoing lack of focus in Ottawa Senators video reviews and the Florida Panthers injuries.

    Metropolitan Division

    1. p-Washington Capitals, 108 points (25 GP so far)
    2. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 99 points (25 GP so far)
    3. x-Pittsburgh Penguins, 98 points (24 GP so far)
    4. wc2-New York Rangers, 92 points (26 GP so far)
    5. New York Islanders, 90 points (24 GP so far)
    6. Carolina Hurricanes, 87 points (25 GP so far)
    7. Philadelphia Flyers, 86 points (24 GP so far)
    8. New Jersey Devils, 81 points (24 GP so far)

    The Washington Capitals remain in control of the Metropolitan Division with the Columbus Blue Jackets and Pittsburgh Penguins in tow.

    Of course, Columbus and Pittsburgh are worth keeping a close eye on as the Blue Jackets have been all over the place near the top and the Penguins have yet to be in playoff position since– actually, pretty much never so far this season.

    Plus there’s the whole “second-half of the season surge” we’re still waiting to see from Mike Sullivan’s bunch. That’ll almost assure Pittsburgh of a playoff berth, if not in a divisional spot, at least.

    The New York Rangers gained two spots since entering November, which means the rebuild’s over!

    Just kidding.

    Look how close the Rangers, New York Islanders and Carolina Hurricanes are forecasted to be in points. Even the Philadelphia Flyers have a chance– mathematically speaking, of course.

    The battle for the last wild card spot in the Eastern Conference is going to come down to one of the teams in the Big Apple and Carolina, especially since the rest of the division lacks clarity.

    Meanwhile, the New Jersey Devils are in the dumps. Taylor Hall isn’t a flash in the pan, but the rest of the Devils are, it appears.

    Western Conference

    Central Division

    1. z-Nashville Predators, 104 points (26 GP so far)
    2. x-Minnesota Wild, 98 points (25 GP so far)
    3. x-Winnipeg Jets, 97 points (24 GP so far)
    4. wc1-Colorado Avalanche, 93 points (26 GP so far)
    5. wc2-Dallas Stars, 90 points (26 GP so far)
    6. St. Louis Blues, 88 points (24 GP so far)
    7. Chicago Blackhawks, 87 points (26 GP so far)

    Both the Nashville Predators and Minnesota Wild remain in the 1-2 spots in the latest forecast. Despite the current hot streak from the Calgary Flames, the Predators are going to be the best team in the conference by the end of the regular season.

    The Winnipeg Jets are starting to become like the Penguins under Sullivan’s reign in that Paul Maurice is bound to lead his team to a second-half of the season surge into a divisional spot (or higher).

    Of course, there’s always a wild card– both in the literal wild card berth and dark horse standpoint– and that’s the Colorado Avalanche.

    The Avs have a great chance at jumping up into a divisional spot, since they’ve gained three positions from the previous forecast entering November to the current forecast entering December. The fact of the matter is the Avalanche are a playoff contender– like last season– but with the added improvement of having built on last season’s experience.

    Then there’s the Dallas Stars, who might find themselves landing in a wild card position by circumstance (have you even seen the Pacific Division?) and by luck in Jim Montgomery’s first season behind the bench.

    Towards the cellar of the Central Division, the St. Louis Blues are bad, but not as bad as they are currently, which isn’t great news if you’re trying to lose for Jack Hughes.

    But if you’re a Blues fan who hates rivals more than losing, there’s a positive takeaway– the Chicago Blackhawks are destined to finished last in the Central. They’re bad. Very bad.

    Pacific Division

    1. y-San Jose Sharks, 97 points (26 GP so far)
    2. x-Anaheim Ducks, 97 points (28 GP so far)
    3. x-Calgary Flames, 93 points (26 GP so far)
    4. Vegas Golden Knights, 85 points (27 GP so far)
    5. Edmonton Oilers, 82 points (25 GP so far)
    6. Los Angeles Kings, 79 points (26 GP so far)
    7. Arizona Coyotes, 78 points (24 GP so far)
    8. Vancouver Canucks, 78 points (28 GP so far)

    The San Jose Sharks’ grasp on the Pacific Division is loosening as the Anaheim Ducks are heating up as one of the hottest teams out west– and that’s not including the one with fire in their name.

    San Jose should– should— hit their stride at some point and have everything click into place, but if they don’t the Ducks are hot on their tail. How close? Close enough to show there’s no difference in their forecast total points in the standings by the end of the regular season.

    The Sharks could be first or they could be second. Perhaps the Calgary Flames have something to say about that.

    It’s anybody’s game in the Pacific Division playoff berths, but one thing’s for sure, there’s not going to be a wild card team coming out of the Pacific.

    For the Vegas Golden Knights, that means they’re really going to have to soar and never let their foot off the gas. Vegas only survived so much without Nate Schmidt in the lineup on their blue line– they can’t afford any more major bumps in the road.

    The Edmonton Oilers have Ken Hitchcock behind the bench and while they might appear to be gaining ground, they’re sure to be just outside of the playoff window looking in like how Hitchcock’s Stars were last season. Just wait for the implosion.

    In the bottom three, the Los Angeles Kings might not be as terrible as they have been if 1) Marco Sturm gets named head coach and Willie Desjardins’ interim basis comes to a close and 2) the Kings light a fire under their grizzled veterans and revive whatever’s left of them this season.

    The Arizona Coyotes are on par with how Arizona’s been the last few seasons. Not great, but not terrible and sometimes downtrodden due to injury.

    The hype surrounding the Vancouver Canucks in October and early November was just that– hype. No amount of Elias Pettersson, Bo Horvat and Brock Boeser can compensate for the holes on the blue line and lack of goaltending. It’s almost as if Canucks General Manager Jim Benning has been living a Groundhog Day career from year-to-year with Vancouver.

    Their offense is good, their defense is suspect and their goaltending isn’t starter quality.

  • Rinne and the Preds shutout Bruins, 1-0

    Pekka Rinne celebrated his 36th birthday with a 1-0 shutout Saturday night against the Boston Bruins as the B’s were paying their annual visit to Bridgestone Arena. Roman Josi had the game’s only goal for the Nashville Predators and the Bruins wrapped up their quick two-game road trip, 1-1-0.

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    Rinne (5-1-0 in 7 games played with a 1.63 goals against average and a .948 save percentage) stopped all 26 shots he faced for the win– his 2nd shutout of the season– and became the first goaltender in National Hockey League history to record multiple regular-season shutouts on his birthday (he previously shutout the Phoenix Coyotes on November 3, 2011).

    The Preds netminder also signed a two-year extension with Nashville earlier in the day on Saturday, keeping him in Smashville through the 2020-21 season.

    Bruins goaltender, Jaroslav Halak (4-1-2, 1.45 GAA, .952 SV% in 8 GP), made 39 saves on 40 shots against for a .975 save percentage in the loss.

    Boston defender Torey Krug celebrated 400 career NHL games played with a minus-one rating, two hits and two blocked shots in 23:03 time on ice.

    As a result of the loss, Boston fell to 7-4-2 (16 points) on the season, which was good enough to remain 3rd in the Atlantic– but tied in points with the Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres. Nashville improved to 11-3-2 (22 points) so far this season– maintaining their 1st overall standing in the Central Division, as well as the Western Conference and entire league.

    Bruce Cassidy made one change in the lineup after Ryan Donato was assigned to the  Providence Bruins (AHL) on Thursday, re-inserting David Backes on the third line as No. 42 in black-and-gold returned to action for the first time since sustaining a concussion in Edmonton last month.

    Matt Grzelcyk (lower body), Urho Vaakanainen (concussion), Charlie McAvoy (upper body) and Kevan Miller (hand) remained out of the lineup Saturday as McAvoy was retroactively placed on the injured reserve earlier in the week.

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    The game began with some quick end-to-end action that slowly became heavily dominated by the Predators with quality chances and zone entries.

    Brandon Carlo took the game’s first penalty– a minor infraction for hooking– at 12:02 of the first period after getting his stick tangled up with Nashville forward, Ryan Johansen.

    The Preds did not convert on the ensuing power play, but maintained just momentum in the vulnerable minute after the skater advantage expired for Josi (4) to waltz around Bruins forward, Danton Heinen, cut to the goal and fire a shot past Halak from point blank.

    Ryan Ellis (8) and Nick Bonino (3) had the assist’s on Josi’s goal at 14:49 of the first period and Nashville led, 1-0. The goal was Josi’s 300th career NHL point.

    Yannick Weber was guilty of hooking Joakim Nordstrom less than ten seconds later, but the Bruins didn’t convert on the ensuing power play.

    Noel Acciari hooked Mattias Ekholm at 17:10 and Nashville didn’t score on that power play either, because– you guess it– there were no more goals scored in the Predators, 1-0, win.

    Brad Marchand stirred the pot with a phantom high-sticking minor infraction at 19:58 of the first period.

    It’s one thing if there’s a blown call. It’s another thing for a player to continue arguing and receive an extra unsportsmanlike conduct minor penalty– resulting in a 4:00 power play that could’ve drastically changed the game for Nashville– and a ten-minute misconduct without any conceivable warning.

    Not to put too much thought into it, but just to sidestep onto a soapbox (since nothing else really happened other than a great goaltender battle all night long) regardless of making a call, professional sports usually work on a one-warning system.

    It was not made clear by the broadcast whether or not Marchand faced a warning from the referee or whether that was implied by the penalties handed out, however NHL refs are noted for expressing verbal warnings to players early in a game before handing out unsportsmanlike minors or misconducts after repeated bad behavior (verbally or physically) later in the action.

    Like how an umpire in baseball delivers a warning to both dugouts sometimes after a pitcher hits a batter. Whether the next hit batter is intentional or not, the umpire has already made it clear that discipline will be handed out and the subsequent pitcher beaning a batter is ejected from the game.

    Anyway, that’ll probably save a few minutes on next week’s podcast.

    There’s nothing wrong with the penalties handed out after the blown call, but rather the formality in which they occurred, without a given warning that would otherwise deem them flat-out the right call.

    Then again, other league’s issue formal apologies after the game, in which nothing can be changed because it’s after the game and, well, the fact of the matter is– refs are human.

    This is sports. Mistakes are made. Play better. Rise above. Insert whatever you want here.

    Anyway, Marchand’s 14 minutes in penalties came with two seconds remaining in the first period, so Nashville’s power play would extend into the middle frame.

    After one period, the Predators led, 1-0, on the scoreboard and in shots on goal, 15-10. Nashville also had an advantage in takeaways (3-1), giveaways (5-2) and face-off win percentage (55-46). The Bruins had an advantage in blocked shots (7-2) through 20 minutes.

    The Preds entered the first intermission 0/3 on the power play, while Boston was 0/1 heading into the dressing room.

    Ryan Hartman hooked Heinen early in the second period and gave the B’s a power play at 4:18. Boston didn’t convert on the skater advantage and had one more chance on the power play at 8:51 of the second period after Kevin Fiala got a stick hooked on David Pastrnak.

    The Bruins power play was unsuccessful on that chance too.

    Despite controlling the flow of the game more in the second period, the Bruins lacked quality in both shots and zone entries. Everything was moving too quick– too many passes, too much setup– and too many saves piling up in Rinne’s save percentage for the night.

    Miikka Salomaki interfered with Acciari at 17:47, giving the Bruins one last chance on the power play, but it was unsuccessful.

    Shortly thereafter, Steven Kampfer tripped up Johansen on a scoring opportunity after Johansen appeared to not actually get tripped up at all upon replay. Something about not anticipating the play, thereby calling misled reaction penalties and instead enforcing the rules…

    Anyway, Nashville didn’t score on their final power play of the game at 19:56 of the second period. Again, the Bruins would start the subsequent period shorthanded, however, if you reread the previous sentence… they made out just fine.

    After 40 minutes Nashville was still leading in shots on goal (23-20), despite being outshot by Boston (10-8) in the 2nd period. The Bruins led in blocked shots (10-9), hits (8-6) and face-off win% (54-46) through two periods, while the Predators held an advantage in takeaways (7-3) and giveaways (8-4).

    Both teams failed to convert on the power play, as Nashville finished the night 0/5 on the skater advantage and the B’s went 0/4.

    Though some things may have been mismanaged in the first 40 minutes, the on-ice officials put away their whistles in the final 20 minutes, yielding no stoppages for major or minor infractions.

    Cassidy pulled his netminder with 2:02 remaining in the third period and called a timeout after a stoppage in the action with 12.0 seconds remaining in the game. Neither strategy worked as time ran out on the Bruins’s hopes for scoring a game-tying goal and the Predators walked away with the 1-0 victory.

    Nashville finished the night with a 40-26 advantage in shots on goal (17-6 in the third period), as well as an advantage in giveaways (12-10) and face-off win% (53-47). Boston finished the 60-minute effort leading in hits (17-8) and both teams recorded 14 blocked shots.

    Boston travels back home to begin a four-game home-stand with a matchup against former Bruin, Tyler Seguin, and the Dallas Stars Monday at TD Garden. The B’s will face the Stars (Nov. 5th), Vancouver Canucks (Nov. 8th), Toronto Maple Leafs (Nov. 10th) and Vegas Golden Knights (Nov. 11th) over the next four-games.