Nick and Connor recap the 2018 trade deadline, 2018 Winter Games and 2018 overall even though it’s only March. Marco Sturm is worthy of an NHL coaching job, but will anyone take the risk? Hint: They should. Also, more thoughts on the Erik Karlsson saga.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.
First of all, it’s March, which means it’s officially the best month of the year, but not for any of the reasons you’re thinking. College basketball can stay on the back burner– especially when there’s playoff hockey to look forward to next month when, oh yeah, that NCAA championship game actually occurs.
Save your “March is the worst month of the year” takes for the next person in line, thanks.
Anyway, at this point in the season it’s worth noting that the trade deadline has come and passed. While acquisitions like Rick Nash for the Boston Bruins, Derick Brassard for the Pittsburgh Penguins, Tomas Tatar for the Vegas Golden Knights and Paul Stastny for the Winnipeg Jets will certainly impact their teams, the following projected standings are merely an educated guess at how things should pan out.
There are simply too many variables that Microsoft Excel cannot account for, namely injuries, roster changes and well, whether or not a player woke up on the right side of the bed that day.
To that end, some projected points totals had a little Gut Feeling 2.0 added to them. In other words, the Toronto Maple Leafs are not going to end up with 130 or 131 points like a couple of models showed– there’s simply not enough games remaining for them to almost match an NHL record.
Therefore, more realistic measures have been added for some teams to account for “reality”.
Some teams like the Chicago Blackhawks, for instance, had a little win-percentage on the season taken into account for their 19 remaining games on the season– and then reflected in the total number of points they should earn.
As with all stats and analytics, try not to get too bogged down on one or another. A holistic viewpoint goes much further than trying to survive on heart and grit alone.
Especially in today’s NHL, where speed and skill are more present than ever before.
With that, here’s a glance at how the standings should shake out for all 31 NHL clubs based on their performances through February 28, 2018.
As always, my degree is in communication, not math. In other words, throw everything mentioned above out the window, strap yourself in and good luck surviving the adrenaline rush that is the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Oh, your team’s not going to make it, you say?
My condolences, Ottawa Senators, Buffalo Sabres, New York Rangers, Carolina Hurricanes, Blackhawks and Arizona Coyotes fans. Next year is totally your year.
Maybe.
The Atlantic Division was already determined in December. Nothing should surprise anyone, except for how close it should be coming down the wire for first place in the division.
It might seem crazy considering the Tampa Bay Lightning really bolstered their defense with Ryan McDonagh at the trade deadline, but Boston and Toronto have as much speed and offense to remain in the hunt for that little “Y” next to their names down the stretch. Plus it helps that the Lightning, Bruins and Maple Leafs aren’t playing each other every night, so that has to factor in their somehow.
Between 4th and 6th in the division it’s anyone’s game. The Montreal Canadiens, Detroit Red Wings and Florida Panthers are all teetering on the edge of either a rebuild or just a few steps away from a re-tool-on-the-fly.
Neither of them are inherently “ideal”, but they can’t do anything else to compete with Tampa, Boston and Toronto.
It’s worth noting that the Buffalo Sabres will barely climb out of the basement of the division this year. And that’s without Jack Eichel (fractured ankle).
Simply put, the Ottawa Senators are beyond bad.
After much turbulence leading up to this month in the Metropolitan Division, it seems by the end of the month, we’ll have a clear picture of who’s really a contender, who’s making a Second Round exit and who’s just pretending to be on the ice when they’re actually sending out some pretty high-tech holograms on the ice.
In other words, the Pittsburgh Penguins are suited for a three-peat as long as Matt Murray can stay healthy. Even still, they’re beginning to peak at the right time as they have done every year with Mike Sullivan behind the bench.
But who’s that neighbor of theirs in Pennsylvania? They might have to re-grease some poles in Philadelphia, because the Flyers are surging right now and it should carry them into decent playoff position.
The New Jersey Devils, Columbus Blue Jackets and Washington Capitals all remain competitive, but sadly fall victim to First or Second Round exits simply because have you seen the rest of the Eastern Conference? Yeah, I thought so too.
One of these years if the Carolina Hurricanes look to actually spend a little more money they’ll be able to take their money-puck approach back to the postseason for the first time since 2009, but this year is not that year. They didn’t do anything at the deadline and it shows.
Your President’s Trophy winners, ladies and gentlemen, entering March 2018 should be the Winnipeg Jets.
That’s right, the team in Winnipeg, Manitoba with a seating capacity of a little more than 15,000 fans at Bell MTS Place. That one. Winnipeg. The Western Conference’s Carolina Hurricanes. They aren’t big spenders, yet they bought exactly what they needed at the trade deadline in Paul Stastny.
Meanwhile, apparently Eric Staal‘s first hat trick in a little over five years is enough to catapult the Minnesota Wild on a surprising run down the stretch. Though they are currently 3rd in the Central Division, Minnesota is coming alive.
It’s hard to knock the Nashville Predators off of their game– especially while they’re in command of the division– but something just doesn’t go exactly as planned this month for the Preds.
They’ll still beat Minnesota in the First Round and set themselves up for quite a matchup with Winnipeg in the Second Round though. Obviously the winner of that is going to battle the Vegas Golden Knights for the Clarence S. Campbell Bowl.
A warning to the St. Louis Blues– keep up this downward trend and the Dallas Stars will replace you in the wild card.
Whatever upper body injury is plaguing Corey Crawford is only making things worse for the Chicago Blackhawks.
In some models, they should be a lot better than they are right now, but that’s due to their impressive streak of success from 2010-17. Now, in 2018, the wheels fell off and the floor fell out from under them– on top of the Crawford injury.
The Vegas Golden Knights, in their inaugural season, come up three points shy of winning the 2017-18 President’s Trophy as the team with the best regular season record. The Vegas Golden Knights.
Despite the push from all of the California clubs, this is Vegas’s division title to lose. Not just in the regular season, but in the playoffs too.
No amount of onslaught from the Los Angeles Kings or Anaheim Ducks should be able to stand a seven-game series with Ryan Reaves and the rest of the Golden Knights. Having said that though, it’s a shame the San Jose Sharks will likely pair-up with the Jets, because we’ll never get to know if Vegas could single handedly defeat all three California teams en route to the 2018 Stanley Cup Final.
That’s assuming a lot, but let’s roll with it.
All season long the Calgary Flames have been a lovable underdog. Unfortunately, their time is cut short. All good things must come to an end and again, if you’re going to do nothing at the deadline as a fringe competitor, you can’t expect to improve.
At least you shouldn’t, otherwise well, you know the definition of insanity (doing the same thing and expecting a different result).
Better luck next year, Edmonton Oilers, Vancouver Canucks and Arizona Coyotes.
The house always wins and Vegas is going all-in.
On Monday, the Vegas Golden Knights traded a 2018 1st round pick, a 2019 2nd round pick and a 2021 3rd round pick to the Detroit Red Wings in exchange for F Tomas Tatar.
Tatar, 27, has 16 goals and 12 assists (28 points) in 62 games played. The 5’10”, 185-pound native of Ilava, Slovakia has 115-107–222 totals in 407 career NHL games with Detroit.
He has reached the 40-point plateau three times in his career from 2014-17, amassing his best career season in goals (29), assists (27) and points (56) in 2014-15.
He is under contract with a $5.300 million cap hit through the 2020-21 season. Tatar was originally drafted by the Red Wings in the 2nd round (60th overall) of the 2009 NHL Entry Draft and has 3-4–7 totals in 17 career postseason games.
The Red Wings, meanwhile, have stockpiled draft picks in light of their rebuild and now have ten picks in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft including two in the 1st round. Detroit was not able to move defenseman Mike Green by Monday’s deadline.
It’s another first for the Vegas Golden Knights. I’m just kidding, they technically existed at the deadline last season (though they could participate because they had just filed their papers that day).
Anyway, the Golden Knights traded F Brendan Leipsic to the Vancouver Canucks for D Philip Holm.
Leipsic, 23, has two goals and 11 assists (13 points) in 44 games for Vegas this season after making his NHL debut with the Toronto Maple Leafs in the 2015-16 season. In 50 career NHL games, Leipsic has 3-13–16 totals.
The 5’10”, 180-pound left wing is a native of Winnipeg, Manitoba and was originally drafted by the Nashville Predators in the 3rd round (89th overall) of the 2012 NHL Entry Draft.
Holm, 26, appeared in his first career NHL game this season with the Canucks on February 23rd against the Golden Knights and was a minus-two in 15:12 time-on-ice.
As a depth-defenseman, Holm brings his 6’1″, 190-pound frame as some added insurance for Vegas as they journey down their first stretch run in franchise history before the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
A native of Stockholm, Sweden, he was undrafted and signed a one-year entry level contract with the Canucks on May 26, 2017. He has 11-18–29 totals in 44 games with the Utica Comets (AHL) this season– his first in North America. Holm will join the Golden Knights’s AHL affiliate, the Chicago Wolves.
The first trade of the 2018 NHL Trade Deadline went down around 9:40 a.m. ET.
On Monday, the Columbus Blue Jackets acquired D Ian Cole from the Ottawa Senators in exchange for F Nick Moutrey and a 3rd round pick in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft.
Cole, 29, was previously acquired by the Senators as part of a three-team trade last week with the Pittsburgh Penguins and Vegas Golden Knights.
He has three goals and ten assists (13 points) in 47 games with the Penguins this season and was a healthy scratch during his short tenure with Ottawa.
The 6’1″, 219-pound native of Ann Arbor, Michigan has 18-72–90 totals in 385 career NHL games with the Penguins and St. Louis Blues. A member of the 2016 and 2017 Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins, Cole has 1-13–14 totals in 56 career Stanley Cup Playoff games.
He was originally drafted by St. Louis in the 1st round (18th overall) of the 2007 NHL Entry Draft and is a pending-unrestricted free agent this July.
Moutrey, 22, has three goals and three assists (six points) in 22 games with the Cleveland Monsters (AHL) this season. He has 17-17–34 totals in 136 career AHL games from 2015-18.
The 6’3″, 207-pound native of Toronto, Ontario was originally drafted by Columbus in the 4th round (105th overall) of the 2013 NHL Entry Draft.
Today– Monday, February 26, 2018 for those of you who have yet to look at a calendar– is the annual NHL Trade Deadline. All 31 NHL teams have until 3:00p ET to get their trade calls into the league office before they can get approved (or rejected).
@connorzkeith and I are tackling the challenge of updating this here DTFR Trade Deadline Live Blog while also writing quick recaps and analysis for every trade that occurs.
So gather around your TVs, phones, laptops, tablets or whatever let’s you refresh Twitter all day and chill with us as we all try to survive the inevitable Ottawa Senators-Erik Karlsson debacle madness that is the 2018 NHL Trade Deadline.
DTFR Top-10 Best Available Players to Acquire
In the first deal of the day, the Columbus Blue Jackets acquired D Ian Cole from the Ottawa Senators in exchange for a 3rd round pick in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft and F Nick Moutrey. MORE
The Chicago Blackhawks traded F Ryan Hartman and a 5th round pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft to the Nashville Predators in exchange for F Victor Edjsell, a 1st round pick and a 4th round pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft. MORE
F Paul Stastny was traded by the St. Louis Blues to the Winnipeg Jets in exchange for F Erik Foley, a 2018 1st round pick and a conditional 4th round pick in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft. MORE
D Philip Holm was traded by the Vancouver Canucks to the Vegas Golden Knights in exchange for F Brendan Leipsic. MORE
Columbus acquired F Ryan Kujawinski from the Arizona Coyotes in exchange for F Jordan Maletta. MORE
The San Jose Sharks acquired F Evander Kane from the Buffalo Sabres in exchange for F Danny O’Regan, a conditional 2019 1st round pick and a conditional 2019 4th round pick. MORE
F Jason Chimera was traded to the Anaheim Ducks by the New York Islanders in exchange for F Chris Wagner. MORE
The Columbus Blue Jackets acquired F Thomas Vanek from the Vancouver Canucks in exchange for F Tyler Motte and F Jussi Jokinen. MORE
The Carolina Hurricanes traded F Josh Jooris to the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for F Greg McKegg. MORE
F Tomas Tatar was traded to the Vegas Golden Knights by the Detroit Red Wings in exchange for a 2018 1st round pick, a 2019 2nd round pick and a 2021 3rd round pick. MORE
The Tampa Bay Lightning have acquired D Ryan McDonagh and F J.T. Miller from the New York Rangers in exchange for F Vladislav Namestnikov, F Brett Howden, D Libor Hajek, a 2018 1st round pick and a conditional 2nd round pick in 2019. MORE
The Ottawa Senators traded F Nick Shore to the Calgary Flames in exchange for a 2019 7th round pick. MORE
Winnipeg acquired D Joe Morrow from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for a 2018 4th round pick. MORE
F Patrick Maroon was traded by the Edmonton Oilers to the New Jersey Devils in exchange for F J.D. Dudek and a 2019 3rd round pick. MORE
Montreal acquired D Mike Reilly from the Minnesota Wild in exchanged for a 5th round pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft (via Washington). MORE
Columbus sent F Carter Camper to Arizona for future considerations. MORE
The Boston Bruins acquired F Tommy Wingels from the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for a conditional 5th round pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. MORE
The Colorado Avalanche traded D Chris Bigras to the New York Rangers in exchange for D Ryan Graves. MORE
Arizona acquired F Pierre-Cedric Labrie, D Trevor Murphy and F Derek Army from Nashville for F Tyler Gaudet and D John Ramage. MORE
Derick Brassard was briefly a Golden Knight. Yes, he was flipped from Ottawa to Vegas to Pittsburgh as part of Friday’s three-team trade and technically speaking, he never suited up for Vegas so it doesn’t actually count, but Brassard was once a Golden Knight.
Now, as a result of the Brassard trade, Ryan Reaves is the newest player in Vegas.
Through 60 games (entering Friday), the Vegas Golden Knights are still 1st in the Pacific Division. William Karlsson is in the midst of a career year, Marc-Andre Fleury and James Neal probably won’t be traded at the deadline like everyone thought they would and there’s a real possibility this whole “Cup in One” mantra actually works out.
Thanks in part to the crazy scheduling this time of year– between the NHL, the Winter Games in PyeongChang, the upcoming trade deadline on Monday and much, much more– I was finally able to squeeze in the time to update Golden Knights projections with 22 games remaining in their schedule.
The only problem is that they’ve now played Game 61 of 82 and added Ryan Reaves. So basically, here’s everything I had before anything that happened on Friday.
I’ll try to come up with some projections for Reaves and any other potential acquisitions Vegas makes between now and the deadline, but there’s no promises. Every year around the deadline my database needs constant updating and as a result some things get bogged down until I physically go through every stat.
I do get around to it (eventually) and these players will be reflected in any subsequent projection posts.
Anyway, on with the show…
The Golden Knights aren’t good. They’re great.
Check out the latest forecast in the charts below. Keep in mind, as always, that anything that sounds ridiculous is Microsoft Excel’s fault. I’m just kidding. There are always outliers and unrealistic projections. Alas, these are merely utopian, Excel driven, guesses.
Standard disclaimer, my degree is in communication– not math or #fancystats.
Vegas Golden Knights Projections Through 60 Games (22 Games Remaining)
The sensational season continues and down the stretch as Erik Haula, Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, Neal, David Perron and Reilly Smith are all expected to amass somewhere around 60-points (or more).
Colin Miller‘s emergence as a top defenseman in the Western Conference continues as he nears the 40-point plateau by seasons end. Also, look at Shea Theodore fitting right in as a top-4 quality defenseman just entering his prime. Miller, Nate Schmidt and Theodore for years to come in Vegas should mean many great things.
Meanwhile, Fleury’s incredible run in goal begins to cool off just a little. His goals against average begins to reflect an “average” year for Fleury, which– granted– is still better than a lot of goaltenders in the NHL. Fleury’s save percentage should be just fine down the stretch– if not potentially league-leading.
Trivia night is about to get a lot more fun when you’re asked “what three-team trade originally got rejected by the NHL, then re-worked, finalized and made official with minor tweaks?” The answer is this trade, which although it was originally rejected for “improper use of salary retention mechanism”, totally didn’t do just that in any way whatsoever… sure.
FYI source confirms that the reason the original Pitt-Vegas-Ottawa three-way trade got rejected by the league earlier today was for “improper use of salary retention mechanism”
— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) February 24, 2018
At this rate, there might not be anyone left to trade by Monday’s trade deadline. Also, what is it with Ottawa and three-team trades?
On Friday, the Ottawa Senators traded F Derick Brassard to the Vegas Golden Knights and F Vincent Dunn and a 3rd round pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft to the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Penguins sent D Ian Cole, G Filip Gustavsson, a 1st round pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft and a 3rd round pick in the 2019 draft to the Senators.
In addition, the Golden Knights flipped Brassard along with F Tobias Lindberg to the Penguins for F Ryan Reaves and a 2018 4th round pick (via Vancouver). Vegas retained 40% of Brassard’s cap hit as part of the three-team trade.
For the sake of making it easy to understand:
To OTT: D Ian Cole, G Filip Gustavsson, 2018 1st round pick (PIT) and a 2019 3rd round pick (PIT)
To PIT: F Derick Brassard*, F Vincent Dunn, F Tobias Lindberg and a 2018 3rd round pick (OTT)
To VGK: F Ryan Reaves, 2018 4th round pick (VAN via PIT)
*VGK retain 40% of Brassard’s cap hit in the deal.
Brassard, 30, has 18 goals and 20 assists (38 points) in 58 games this season for the Senators. In his 11th NHL season, the 6’1″, 202-pound center has 159-261–420 totals in 702 career games with the Senators, New York Rangers and Columbus Blue Jackets.
A native of Hull, Québec, Brassard reached the 60-point plateau in 80 games played in 2014-15 with the Rangers. He was originally drafted by Columbus in the 1st round (6th overall) of the 2006 NHL Entry Draft.
In 78 postseason appearances, Brassard has 22-33–55 totals.
Dunn, 22, has split his time this season between the Belleville Senators (AHL) and Brampton Beast (ECHL). The 6’0″, 190-pound native of Hull, Québec has four assists in 17 games for Belleville and 7-1–8 totals in 16 games with Brampton this season.
He was originally chosen by the Senators in the 5th round (138th overall) of the 2013 NHL Entry Draft.
Lindberg, 22, was previously acquired by the Golden Knights along with a 2018 6th round pick in a trade with the Toronto Maple Leafs that sent G Calvin Pickard to Toronto earlier this season.
In 48 games with the Chicago Wolves (AHL) this season, Lindberg has eight goals and ten assists (18 points). He is a native of Stockholm, Sweden and has 25-43–68 totals in 148 career AHL games with the Wolves, Toronto Marlies and Binghamton Senators.
The 6’3″, 215-pound forward was originally drafted by Ottawa in the 4th round (102nd overall) of the 2013 NHL Entry Draft.
Cole, 29, has 13 points (three goals, ten assists) in 47 games played for Pittsburgh this season. He has 18-72–90 totals in 385 career NHL games with the Penguins and St. Louis Blues and is a two-time Stanley Cup champion with the Pens in 2016 and 2017.
The 6’1″, 219-pound defenseman is a native of Ann Arbor, Michigan and is pending-UFA at season’s end. He was originally drafted by St. Louis in the 1st round (18th overall) of the 2007 NHL Entry Draft.
In 56 career postseason games, Cole has one goal and 13 assists (14 points).
Gustavsson, 19, has a 2.16 goals against average and .917 save percentage in 18 games with Luleå HF this season in the SHL. He was drafted by the Penguins in the 2nd round (55th overall) of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft.
Fans of the 2018 IIHF World Junior Championship might remember that Gustavsson was Sweden’s starting goaltender and named the top goaltender in this year’s tournament with a 1.81 GAA and .924 SV% in six games.
As of this trade, Ottawa now has a possible seven picks in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft– two 1st round picks (the Senators can exercise their right to keep a potential top-10 pick in this year’s draft as part of November’s Matt Duchene trade), one 4th round pick, one 5th round pick, one 6th round pick and two 7th round picks.
Reaves, 31, had four goals and four assists (eight points) in 58 games with the Penguins and was previously acquired by Pittsburgh in a trade with the St. Louis Blues at the 2017 NHL Entry Draft on June 23rd.
He has 84 penalty minutes this season and 779 PIM in his career.
A native of Winnipeg, Manitoba in his eighth NHL season, Reaves has 31-28–59 totals in 477 career games with the Penguins and Blues. The 6’1″, 225-pound right winger was originally drafted by the Blues in the 5th round (156th overall) of the 2005 NHL Entry Draft.
The USWNT won gold in PyeongChang– defeating Canada 3-2 in a shootout– and Nick and Connor are thrilled. Jarome Iginla might be coming back just in time for trades, playoff talk and more on this week’s episode of the DTFR Podcast.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.
1. Tampa Bay Lightning– 40-17-3 (83 points, 60 GP)
Though the Tampa Bay Lightning have been on top of the Eastern Conference all season, the Boston Bruins are catching them and sure to give the Bolts a run for their money in the Eastern Conference Finals.
What do you mean that will never happen because of the current playoff format? Way to be a buzzkill, NHL.
Tampa general manager, Steve Yzerman, worked his magic on the ice for years in Detroit and his magic has gotten even better as a GM. The Lightning don’t need older guys like Dan Girardi or Chris Kunitz on the team and yet– here they are– sitting in 1st in the Atlantic Division with those guys on the roster.
The Lightning have about $2.000 million in cap space right now with some pretty important pending-RFAs to re-sign this offseason. Then again, when isn’t that the case for them?
Just try not to make a bad move at the deadline (or any moves, really) and Yzerman will find a way to keep Vladislav Namestnikov and Slater Koekkoek around for a few more years.
Potential assets to trade: F Ryan Callahan (if he’ll waive his NMC), D Braydon Coburn, F Erik Condra, F Adam Erne, D Dan Girardi, F Chris Kunitz
Potential assets to acquire: F Max Domi (ARI), F Benoit Pouliot (BUF), F Michael Grabner (NYR), D Ryan McDonagh (NYR), D Johnny Oduya (OTT), F Thomas Vanek (VAN)
2. Boston Bruins– 37-13-8 (82 points, 58 GP)
At the time of this writing, I had the Boston Bruins pinpointed on Nick Holden as an option in case they aren’t able to pull off a Ryan McDonagh trade with the New York Rangers. Holden’s cheaper, a year removed from his best season in his career and a clear top-six defenseman that’ll boost not only Boston’s depth, but solidify their blue line as contenders.
Look, it didn’t cost the Bruins much, considering Rob O’Gara was stuck in the midst of an overcrowded pool of defensive prospects and not every third round pick is making the NHL for more than half a season. Holden has the chance of becoming the next Tomas Kaberle for Boston (and let’s check where Joe Colborne is these days, oh right San Antonio).
Or Holden could stick around for a little longer if things work out just right.
If general manager, Don Sweeney, is confident in his roster, he’s set. If he’s looking to add without subtracting that “necessary” one or two more pieces to put the Bruins over the edge and into Stanley Cup favorites, then sure, he’ll find it.
Sweeney is all about holding onto his cards and being tactically smart. He’s improved in each of his three years as general manager around this time of year.
They really shouldn’t part with Jakub Zboril so early, considering he must be next in line behind Jeremy Lauzon. Yet if there’s an offer that’s too good to refuse and all indications point towards finding your next veteran defenseman for the post-Tom Brady 2.0 (at least in terms of age and playing ability) Zdeno Chara days, then sure, go for it.
Potential assets to trade: F Frank Vatrano, D Jakub Zboril
Potential assets to acquire: F Max Domi (ARI), F Benoit Pouliot (BUF), F Derek Ryan (CAR), F Tommy Wingels (CHI), F Boone Jenner (CBJ), F Gustav Nyqvist (DET), D Xavier Ouellet (DET), F Patrick Maroon (EDM), F Michael Grabner (NYR), D Nick Holden (NYR)– acquired on Tuesday, D Ryan McDonagh (NYR), D Ben Hutton (VAN)
3. Toronto Maple Leafs– 37-20-5 (79 points, 62 GP)
Despite having immense youth and talent, the Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves at a crossroads. Do they go for it this season (without any cap room)?
Or should they move some pieces to make the future work to their advantage (at a time when Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and crew are ready for their Stanley Cup Final debut)?
With these questions in mind, it seems a guy like James van Riemsdyk‘s time might be running short. Alas, van Riemsdyk has a modified-no trade clause and carries a $4.250 million cap hit– all while being a pending-UFA this July– but that’s nothing that can’t be overcome.
There’s still 21 teams he can be traded to and up to 50 percent of his salary can be retained if that’s a concern for anyone.
Joffrey Lupul‘s contract expires at the end of this season, so the Maple Leafs won’t have to go back and put him on the long-term injured reserve every September. It might be a smart idea to move Nathan Horton‘s contract elsewhere *ahem, Arizona* to try to get something out of it and not have to go through the LTIR motions. Neither of those situations is pressing, just food for thought.
This isn’t the year to cash in if you’re Toronto.
That might be painful for a guy like Patrick Marleau to hear, then again, he did sign a three-year contract last summer. He’s in it for the long haul and so is the Maple Leafs front office as they navigate what Matthews, Marner and Nylander’s second contracts will be.
Nylander, by the way, is a pending-RFA this summer.
Potential assets to trade: F Tyler Bozak, F Nathan Horton, F Josh Leivo, F James van Riemsdyk
Potential assets to acquire: F Antoine Vermette (ANA), F Frank Vatrano (BOS), F Benoit Pouliot (BUF), F Tommy Wingels (CHI), D Xavier Ouellet (DET), F Matt Cullen (MIN), F Alex Galchenyuk (MTL)
4. Florida Panthers– 26-25-6 (58 points, 57 GP)
The Florida Panthers have about $7.100 million in cap space currently and the opportunity to be the best of the worst teams in the Atlantic Division.
They can’t buy in bulk, but they can buy the right pieces to make themselves playoff contenders again since they blew whatever plans they had in the dismissal of Gerard Gallant as head coach and losses of Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith to the Vegas Golden Knights last June.
Another top-four defenseman and one or two of the right top-nine forwards should really make an impact on the Panthers. This is where Florida has a decent chance at being a sleeper pick for Evander Kane.
They’ve got the cap space and the right amount of talent waiting for a complementary player.
Or Florida could become sellers and move on from everything they had built to bring themselves to the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs and, well, nothing since.
Potential assets to trade: F Nick Bjugstad, F Derek MacKenzie, D Mark Pysyk, G James Reimer, F Radim Vrbata
Potential assets to acquire: F Max Domi (ARI), F Evander Kane (BUF), G Jon Gillies (CGY), F Jeff Skinner (CAR), F Boone Jenner (CBJ), D Jack Johnson (CBJ), F Gustav Nyqvist (DET), F Max Pacioretty (MTL), F Derick Brassard (OTT), F Mike Hoffman (OTT), F Zack Smith (OTT), G Aaron Dell (SJ)
5. Detroit Red Wings– 24-26-9 (57 points, 59 GP)
The Detroit Red Wings have a plethora of no-movement-clauses, expensive cap hits and everything else to sort through as they enter full-on rebuild mode.
As an Atlantic Division team outside of the playoff picture, they’re not going anywhere.
It’d make sense to go for a dive in the standings, but at what cost, since the draft lottery exists? A defenseman from Sweden leading the Red Wings to glory? Stop me if you’ve heard that one before, Nicklas Lidstrom.
Yes, it might sense to embrace the tank and give yourself a shot at Rasmus Dahlin, Detroit. This is your year– until the Edmonton Oilers win another lottery and then have Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Dahlin on a team that’s still scraping out of the basement next season.
Everyone’s at play at this year’s deadline– except for Henrik Zetterberg (because he still believes for some reason, a.k.a. he’s the new Shane Doan).
Potential assets to trade: F Luke Glendening, D Mike Green, F Darren Helm, D Niklas Kronwall, F Gustav Nyqvist, D Xavier Ouellet, F Tomas Tatar
Potential assets to acquire: Draft picks, prospects, F Max Domi (ARI), F Frank Vatrano (BOS), F Benoit Pouliot (BUF), F Jeff Skinner (CAR), F Derek Ryan (CAR), D Tyson Barrie (COL), F Alex Galchenyuk (MTL), D Ben Hutton (VAN)
6. Montreal Canadiens– 22-29-8 (52 points, 59 GP)
The Montreal Canadiens aren’t good.
Claude Julien‘s behind the bench, their scoring is down, Carey Price is fatigued (at times), Max Pacioretty’s probably going to be traded and Andrew Shaw might become the new poster boy in bleu, blanc et rouge as a result.
Nothing makes sense anymore. The Canadiens are rebuilding, about to rebuild or should rebuild.
There’s nothing else to it really. This is more than just a bad year for them, save for Buffalo and Ottawa sitting beneath them in the division. Wait, the Senators are how close?
With almost $7.200 million in cap space, the Habs can make something happen and retool on-the-fly. Though if they’re smart, they’ll try to maximize their return on any trades without jeopardizing their pending-RFAs from re-signing.
Potential assets to trade: F Alex Galchenyuk, F Max Pacioretty, D Jeff Petry, F Tomas Plekanec, F Andrew Shaw
Potential assets to acquire: F Max Domi (ARI), G Jon Gillies (CGY), F Patrick Maroon (EDM), D Jack Johnson (CBJ), F Michael Grabner (NYR), F Jordan Kyrou (STL), F Nic Petan (WPG)
7. Ottawa Senators– 21-28-10 (52 ponts, 59 GP)
If you thought things were bad in Québec, just wait until you see how the Ottawa Senators have been this year.
After nearly reaching last year’s Stanley Cup Final, the Sens thought they had a chance of making “boring” hockey exciting again. There’s just one problem– none of their players are any good, save for Erik Karlsson (who’s slumping this season), Mike Hoffman (who’s definitely going to be traded, even though GM Pierre Dorion keeps indicating he will/won’t), Mark Stone and that’s about it.
Karlsson’s a free agent after the 2018-19 season and surely won’t stick around if Ottawa doesn’t turn things around. Or worse, the Senators just might go ahead and trade their franchise defenseman.
If you thought Montreal was a dumpster fire, you’re right, but Ottawa is a thousand dumpster fires.
With about $1.315 million in cap space approaching the deadline the Senators shouldn’t have to worry. If they’re smart, that is. They’re sellers and they have to admit that they keep messing up.
In a league that’s getting younger and faster, the Sens are doing just the opposite.
Potential assets to trade: G Craig Anderson, F Derick Brassard, G Mike Condon, F Mike Hoffman, D Erik Karlsson (I don’t understand how I should even have to put him here, but I do, because it’s Ottawa we’re talking about), D Johnny Oduya, F Jean-Gabriel Pageau, F Bobby Ryan, F Zack Smith
Potential assets to acquire: Draft picks, F Benoit Pouliot (BUF), F Jeff Skinner (CAR), F Tommy Wingels (CHI), D Tyson Barrie (COL), D Xavier Ouellet (DET), F Mark Letestu (EDM), F Patrick Maroon (EDM), G Aaron Dell (SJ), D Ben Hutton (VAN), F Nic Petan (WPG)
8. Buffalo Sabres– 17-32-11 (45 points, 60 GP)
Figure it out, Buffalo. One of these years.
The Buffalo Sabres have about $5.600 million in cap space approaching Monday’s trade deadline. They’ll likely have more room to work with heading into the offseason, given Evander Kane and his $5.250 million cap hit is all but assured of being on its way out of upstate New York.
The pending-UFA is the biggest prize the Sabres have to offer to a playoff contender or any team with enough cap room looking to reignite their offense.
Other than that, the goalie market looks slim at the deadline– especially after the Philadelphia Flyers already went out and got Petr Mrazek from Detroit– so Robin Lehner probably isn’t going anywhere. Yet.
Lehner is a 26-year-old pending-RFA this July and could certainly prove worthy to a team looking to overhaul its goaltending. If Sabres general manager, Jason Botterill, can’t find the right trading partner now, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to do so at the NHL Entry Draft in June.
As for the rest of the roster, Buffalo might take a page from Ottawa and the New York Rangers in that everyone– save for Jack Eichel and Ryan O’Reilly— just might be available.
Don’t count the Sabres out (of the trade market, that is). They just might go all in on landing a big name or two looking for a reset.
Potential assets to trade: D Nathan Beaulieu, F Evander Kane, F Zemgus Girgensons, D Josh Gorges, G Robin Lehner, F Matt Moulson, F Benoit Pouliot, F Sam Reinhart, F Scott Wilson
Potential assets to acquire: F Antoine Vermette (ANA), F Frank Vatrano (BOS), F Jeff Skinner (CAR), D Tyson Barrie (COL), D Xavier Ouellet (DET), F Tomas Tatar (DET), G James Reimer (FLA), F Max Pacioretty (MTL), F Tomas Plekanec (MTL), D Ryan McDonagh (NYR), F Mike Hoffman (OTT), D Erik Karlsson (OTT), G Aaron Dell (SJ)
Down the Frozen River 
You must be logged in to post a comment.