Down the Frozen River

Tag: Vegas Golden Knights

  • DTFR Podcast #144- (The Other) Auston City Limits

    DTFR Podcast #144- (The Other) Auston City Limits

    Auston Matthews signed an extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs. What does this mean for the Leafs? Alex Stalock, Jordan Martinook and Pheonix Copley all signed extensions with their clubs, as Tuukka Rask became the winningest goaltender in Boston Bruins history, Alex Ovechkin became the highest scoring Russian-born NHL player and Paul Maurice reached 1,500 games behind the bench as a head coach.

    The DTFR Duo also reviewed all 31 NHL teams as buyers and/or sellers at the 2019 trade deadline.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

  • Analysis: Time is the biggest gamble in Brassard, Bjugstad swap

    Midday Friday, the Pittsburgh Penguins and Florida Panthers completed a trade that left many scratching their heads.

    Pittsburgh sent Derick Brassard, Riley Sheahan, a 2019 2nd round pick and two 2019 4th round picks (Pittsburgh’s own and Minnesota’s previously acquired in a deal earlier this week with the Dallas Stars) to the Panthers in exchange for Nick Bjugstad and Jared McCann.

    Brassard, 31, was in his first full season with the Penguins and amassed 9-6–15 totals in 40 games played this season prior to the trade.

    He was acquired by Pittsburgh last February from the Vegas Golden Knights after the Golden Knights added Brassard in a separate deal with the Ottawa Senators first– prior to retaining salary on Brassard’s contract and flipping him along with Tobias Lindberg to the Penguins for Ryan Reaves and a 4th round pick originally belonging to the Vancouver Canucks in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft.

    In 14 games with the Penguins in 2017-18, Brassard added three goals and five assists (eight points) on top of his 18-20–38 totals in 58 games with the Senators prior to being trade deadline bait last season.

    He registered one goal and three assist (four points) in 12 Stanley Cup Playoff games with Pittsburgh in the 2018 postseason before the Penguins were eliminated by the eventual Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals.

    Never mind what he’s done for you yesterday, Brassard carries a cap hit of $3.000 million per season and is a pending unrestricted free agent this July 1st.

    Not only that, but his salary can be retained one more time on his current contract if Florida desires to flip him by February 25th’s trade deadline.

    The Columbus Blue Jackets’ 6th overall pick of the 2006 NHL Draft, Brassard has 443 points (171 goals, 272 assists) in 756 career NHL games with the Blue Jackets, New York Rangers, Senators and Penguins.

    Sheahan, 27, had seven goals and two assists (nine points) in 49 games with Pittsburgh prior to the trade and was previously acquired by the Penguins in a transaction involving the Detroit Red Wings on Oct. 21, 2017 in exchange for Scott Wilson.

    He is a pending-UFA this July and carries a cap hit of $2.100 million.

    Despite failing to record a point with the Red Wings in eight games in the 2017-18 season, leading to his trade to the Penguins, Sheahan amassed his second-best season of 32 points (11 goals, 21 assists) in 81 games with Pittsburgh and Detroit last season.

    He established career-highs in assists (23) and points (36) in 79 games with the Red Wings in 2014-15 and had a career-high 14 goals in 81 games in 2015-16 with Detroit.

    In 414 career NHL games, the 21st overall pick of the 2010 NHL Draft has 139 career points (56 goals, 83 assists).

    In summary, the Panthers added to a list of growing draft picks in 2019 (presently with nine selections, including three picks in the 4th round), while potentially clearing out enough cap space to pursue some of the big names (*ahem* Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky) that might hit the free agency market on July 1st.

    While the move looks like a haphazard approach to writing off this season, Panthers fans will have to be patient and wait for the other shoe to drop in General Manager Dale Tallon‘s masterplan.

    Even if that’s been said before.

    Bjugstad, 26, had five goals and seven assists (12 points) in 32 games with the Panthers at the time of the trade and was the last connection Florida had to the 2010 NHL Draft as their 19th overall selection.

    He posted a career-best 49 points (19 goals, 30 assists) in 82 games last season for the Panthers, establishing career-highs in assists and points.

    The most goals he’s ever scored in one season was 24 in 72 games in the 2014-15 season as a 22-year-old. In five career Stanley Cup Playoff games, Bjugstad has two goals and two assists (four points) with one game-winning goal and a plus-six rating.

    Bjugstad has two years left on his current contract with a $4.100 million cap hit and has 87-104–191 totals in 394 career games (all with the Panthers).

    McCann, 22, had eight goals and 10 assists (18 points) in 46 games for Florida prior to the trade and was originally selected 24th overall by the Canucks in the 2014 NHL Draft.

    He posted his career-best numbers last season for the Panthers with nine goals and 19 assists (28 points) in 68 games while earning a plus-11 rating (his first positive plus/minus outcome in four NHL seasons including the current 2018-19 season).

    McCann has two years left on his current contract at $1.250 million per season and can become a restricted free agent at the end of the 2019-20 season. He has 27-44–71 totals in 212 games with Vancouver and Florida in his young career and was previously acquired by the Panthers in exchange for Erik Gudbranson on May 25, 2016.

    Penguins General Manager Jim Rutherford has a knack for finding overlooked talent in an otherwise not as lively market and making them better in his current tenure with Pittsburgh, however, his latest move in snagging Bjugstad and McCann leaves more to be desired.

    While Rutherford brought in younger players with an additional year remaining on their contract, the gamble remains as to whether or not McCann will fully pan out– or if he does, whether or not he’ll price himself out of Pittsburgh with a tight cap situation and no trade or no movement clauses on some of their larger contracts that extend past 2019-20 currently on the books.

    Rutherford coveted McCann and now the next step will be figuring out how he can become part of the long-term solution.

    In addition to his oft-injured history, Bjugstad is a younger replacement for Brassard– one year after Rutherford made the move to get Brassard.

    Winning back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2016 and 2017 should be enough to overlook an otherwise mismanaged acquisition, however, Bjugstad costs more and now carries the added weight of living up to expectations or else further looking like the beginning of Rutherford’s mistakes on the way down from a Cup window.

    One positive takeaway for Penguins fans– who perhaps know this best– is that Rutherford is active. No one can take that away from him in his search for finding the right pieces to build a dynasty.

    As always, though, it is rare for any general manager in any sport to willingly depart an organization on their terms. Usually it’s the buildup of poor roster moves or repeated postseason failures that leads to “being relieved of duties” and kindly shown the door.

    In short, the biggest takeaway for this deal is… …time will tell.

  • DTFR Podcast #143- Overage Fees

    DTFR Podcast #143- Overage Fees

    The Dallas Stars and Pittsburgh Penguins swapped familiar assets, while the Toronto Maple Leafs added a defender in a deal with the Los Angeles Kings. Red Kelly’s number is going to be retired (again– this time by the Detroit Red Wings) and we now know the opponents in the 2020 Winter Classic and 2020 Stadium Series games.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

  • DTFR Podcast #142- Chia’s Pets

    DTFR Podcast #142- Chia’s Pets

    The Edmonton Oilers fired their president of hockey operations and General Manager, Peter Chiarelli (April 2015-January 2019). The club officially made the announcement after the DTFR Duo finished recording this week’s episode.

    There won’t be a 2020 World Cup of Hockey and there were a few milestones to go along with a bunch of minor trades made this week.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

  • Game of the week: January 21-27

    Whether you measure by games played or the All-Star Break, the middle of the season is upon us. Are you an optimist and see all the hockey remaining on the schedule? Or is the glass half empty, formerly full with games now gone by? While you’re figuring that out, here’s the NHL’s offering of games this week.
    NHL SCHEDULE: January 21-27
    TIME (ALL TIMES EASTERN) VISITOR HOST NATIONAL BROADCAST(S)/ Result
    Monday, January 21
    3 p.m. Nashville Colorado 4-1
    4 p.m. St. Louis Los Angeles 3-4
    6 p.m. Minnesota Vegas 4-2
    7 p.m. San Jose Florida 2-6
    Tuesday, January 22
    7 p.m. San Jose Washington 7-6 (OT)
    7:30 p.m. Arizona Ottawa 3-2
    8:30 p.m. New York Islanders Chicago Blackhawks 2-3 (SO)
    9 p.m. Carolina Calgary 2-3 (OT)
    9 p.m. Detroit Edmonton 3-2
    Wednesday, January 23
    7:30 p.m. Washington Capitals Toronto Maple Leafs NBCSN, SN, SN360, TVAS
    7:30 p.m. Arizona Montréal RDS, SN1
    9:30 p.m. Minnesota Colorado
    10 p.m. Nashville Vegas NBCSN
    10 p.m. St. Louis Anaheim
    10:30 p.m. Carolina Vancouver ESPN+
    Thursday, January 24
    No games scheduled – All-Star Break
    Friday, January 25
    No games scheduled – All-Star Break
    Saturday, January 26
    NHL All-Star Game from San Jose, Calif.
    Sunday, January 27
    No games scheduled – All-Star Break
    As you can see, the fun we gain in having the All-Star festivities in San Jose scheduled for this weekend is largely negated by this week’s half-serving of fixtures. Them’s the breaks, I suppose. As for some of this week’s biggest games, we needed to look no further than Monday’s matchup between Nashville and Colorado, a rematch of the First Round from last April’s playoffs. Also, F Alex Galchenyuk is making his first trip back to Montréal tonight, his former home of six seasons. W Micheal Ferland and D Dougie Hamilton were in the same boat last night in Calgary, their home for four and three seasons, respectively. While Galchenyuk will surely receive a warm welcome this evening, I’m much more interested in a tilt taking place in the Mojave Desert between two Western Conference foes.
    Boasting the second-best record in the Central Division, the 29-18-4 Nashville Predators enter tonight’s game with a bit of a limp. Though they won their last tilt against Colorado 4-1, they’ve only managed a 2-3-1 record in their past six outings – a mark that makes Nashville fortunate it has built up a nine-point lead on third-place Minnesota. What is most alarming about this rough patch for the Preds is that their latest struggles are usually among the team’s greatest strengths. Since January 10, Nashville has allowed an average of 3.67 goals per game and 32.5 shots per game. Those both rank seventh-worst in the NHL in that time – a far cry from the Preds’ season marks of 2.61 goals against per game ([t]second-best) and 29 shots against per game (fifth-best). Is this just a case of the Predators being worn out after 51 games so far this season? Considering the Predators’ entire defensive corps is healthy right now, I’d say this very well could be the answer. They’ll take a four-day bye period in addition to the four-day All-Star Break to recuperate for the final 30 games if that is the case. However, eight days off doesn’t do Head Coach Peter Laviolette any good tonight. He needs to find a way to get his troops to perform better tonight, especially since they’re heading into one of the toughest arenas in the league and taking on a hot team in the Golden Knights. On the season, Nashville’s defense has been headed by D Ryan Ellis (two blocks per game and a team-high 42 takeaways) and W Austin Watson (three hits per game). Watson has maintained his role as the team’s leading hit-thrower during this stretch, but his production has dropped to 2.2 hits per game since January 10. Similarly, Ellis’ blocks-per-game production has dropped to 1.5 in his last six outings, falling behind D Mattias Ekholm and D Roman Josi‘s matching 1.8 blocks per game. With only four takeaways in his last six games, Ellis is still a dominant threat in that department considering his position. However, the Predator that really been creating steals lately is F Filip Forsberg, who has averaged a takeaway per game since January 10. Mix in the fact that he’s averaging almost a point per game during this run, and you find a player who’s not at fault for his club’s recent defensive inefficiencies and lack of results. Regardless of who is taking the blame, one player who definitely isn’t happy about the situation is 18-12-3 G Pekka Rinne. Even though Rinne has been having a solid campaign (made evident by his .915 save percentage and 2.47 GAA on the season, the latter of which is tied for sixth-best in the NHL), he’s been a terrible victim of his team’s defensive effort of late. Rinne has only won one of his last four starts, posting a horrendous .878 save percentage and 4.27 GAA in those outings. Rinne has faced the Golden Knights twice in his career, but is still looking for his first victory against the second-year franchise. In the previous two matchups, he has managed a .928 save percentage and 2.44 GAA, highlighted by a 36-save performance on December 8, 2017 that ended in a 4-3 six-round shootout victory for Vegas. Rinne earned
    After rattling off a seven-game winning streak, the 29-18-4 Vegas Golden Knights have propelled themselves into third-place in the Pacific Division with 10 points separating them from Vancouver. However, those winning ways have gone by the wayside in the last two weeks, as Vegas has alternated results in its last five outings for a 2-3-0 record. Vegas lost to the Sharks 3-2 on January 10, followed two days later by a 4-3 overtime win in Chicago. January 15 saw the Golden Knights lose 4-1 in Winnipeg, but a trip home was just the medicine they needed to beat the Penguins 7-3. Most recently (Monday, to be precise), the Wild came to T-Mobile Arena and emerged with a 4-2 win. Does this pattern mean the Knights are ensured two points tonight? If Vegas wants to take its fate into its own hands, it should surely continue what it is doing on the defensive end. Despite the consistently inconsistent results, one thing that has remained constant is the Golden Knights’ blue line, which has allowed only 27.2 shots against per game since January 10 – the fourth-best mark in the league in that time. Leading that defensive charge is none other than F Tomas Nosek (seven takeaways in Vegas’ last five games), RW Ryan Reaves (4.4 hits per game since January 10) and D Nate Schmidt (two blocks per game during this run), despite the fact that injured LW William Carrier (five hits per game), D Brayden McNabb (1.9 blocks per game) and D Shea Theodore (49 takeaways) lead the team in their respective statistics for the season. A major reason for these inconsistent results is the Golden Knights’ scoreboard does not reflect their positive defensive performance. A major reason for that has been the lackluster play by G Marc-Andre Fleury in his last five starts. Even though he boasts a .911 save percentage and 2.5 GAA (tied for ninth-best in the NHL) for the entire season, he’s managed only a .895 save percentage and 2.85 GAA in his last five starts. In fact, Fleury has allowed at least two goals per game in his last seven outings – a surprising statistic for the netminder whose six shutouts double the eight players’ marks that are tied for second place. If history will decide this tilt, Fleury will certainly bring his A-game against Nashville. He boasts a 9-5-1 record against the Predators, bolstered largely by five-straight wins between 2010-14 during his tenure with Pittsburgh. In those 15 appearances, he owns a career .927 save percentage and 1.95 GAA – dominant marks for any netminder against any one club. Of course, those marks are in the past. Which team enters the All-Star Break with two more points to their credit? Since both teams have managed approximately equal offense since January 10 (the Preds’ 3.33 goals per game is slightly higher than Vegas’ 3.2), I’ll consider that a wash. Instead, I’ll lean towards the Golden Knights earning tonight’s victory on the backs of their solid defensive play.
  • DTFR Podcast #141- The Midseasonies

    DTFR Podcast #141- The Midseasonies

    Nick and Connor talk the latest trades, Torts drama (and latest record), Casey DeSmith’s extension with the Pittsburgh Penguins, as well as a tribute to the careers of Rick Nash and Josh Gorges who both announced their retirement this week.

    Additionally, what’s up with the Edmonton Oilers and St. Louis Blues this season and why can’t they just pick a side? Plus, it’s time to hand out awards for being slightly more than halfway through the 2018-19 regular season. #FlamingNotToFlamingHot

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

  • DTFR Podcast #140- All-Star Finnish Trivia

    DTFR Podcast #140- All-Star Finnish Trivia

    Thoughts on the conclusion and controversies of the 2019 IIHF World Junior Championship, as well as a look at the schedule around the league as we near the All-Star Weekend festivities and bye week(s). Nick puts Connor on the spot and asks him some trivia questions that only went so well.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

  • DTFR Podcast #139- They Ran Out Of Beer!

    DTFR Podcast #139- They Ran Out Of Beer!

    A bunch of minor trades were made in the last week, the 2019 Honda NHL All-Star Game rosters were released, as well as the 2019-20 outdoor game schedule. Nick and Connor also discuss the legacy that was the 2019 Bridgestone NHL Winter Classic and the 2019 IIHF World Junior Quarterfinal upsets.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

    *Editor’s Note: Of course, after recording this week’s episode, the Philadelphia Flyers claimed G Mike McKenna off waivers from the Vancouver Canucks.

  • B’s oust Flames, 6-4, on Thursday

    Jake DeBrusk had the defacto game-winning goal in the third period for the Boston Bruins, as DeBrusk and Brad Marchand each scored two goals in Boston’s, 6-4, win over the Calgary Flames at TD Garden on Thursday.

    Jaroslav Halak (13-6-2 record, 2.36 goals against average, .926 save percentage in 23 games played) made 33 saves on 37 shots against for an .892 SV% in the win for the Bruins.

    Mike Smith (12-9-1, 3.09 GAA, .886 SV% in 23 GP) turned aside 21 shots on 26 shots faced for an .808 SV% in the loss for the Flames.

    As a result of the win, Boston improved to 23-14-4 on the season (50 points) and remained 3rd in the Atlantic Division, while Calgary fell to 25-13-4 (54 points) on the season.

    The Flames held onto 1st place in the Pacific Division despite the loss, but with a two-point lead over the Vegas Golden Knights.

    Boston head coach, Bruce Cassidy, updated reporters earlier in the day on Thursday on the status of Charlie McAvoy and Joakim Nordstrom.

    Cassidy ruled McAvoy out of the lineup for Thursday night and unlikely to play Saturday, while indicating the sophomore blue liner is aiming for a return to the lineup next week– either Tuesday or Thursday.

    Nordstrom, in the meantime, will be out for at least three weeks with a non-displaced fibula fracture sustained in Tuesday’s Winter Classic against the Chicago Blackhawks. He will be re-evaluated at that time.

    Cassidy also congratulated David Krejci and his wife, Naomi, on the birth of their son Thursday morning. The Krejci family welcomed their second child as they previously had a daughter in 2015.

    And in other news, Kevan Miller played in his 300th career NHL game Thursday night.

    David Backes served the third and final game of his three-game suspension from the penalty box, while Steven Kampfer was the only healthy scratch for Boston.

    Michael Frolik tripped Krejci early in the first period at 5:39 and sent the Bruins on their first power play of the night, which quickly became a 5-on-3 advantage when Elias Lindholm caught Brad Marchand with a high-stick at 5:44.

    As Frolik was fresh out of the box, Mark Jankowski found the Flames forward for a shorthanded opportunity.

    Frolik (9) made no mistake and capitalized on the lack of a defensive effort from the Bruins with Calgary’– league-leading– 13th shorthanded goal this season to give the Flames a 1-0 lead at 7:46 of the opening frame.

    Jankowski (11) had the only assist on the ninth shorthanded goal allowed by Boston this season (which also is league-leading in all the wrong ways).

    Late in the power play, the Bruins worked the puck back to John Moore (2) as he blasted one past Smith to tie the game, 1-1, at 9:02.

    Matt Grzelcyk (11) and Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson (3) notched the assists on Moore’s goal as the two teams scored 1:16 apart from each other.

    Late in the first period, Jake DeBrusk (12) tipped in a shot from the point by Krejci to make it, 2-1, Boston at 14:19. Krejci (25) and Ryan Donato (3) had the assists on DeBrusk’s goal.

    After one period of play, the B’s led the Flames, 2-1, on the scoreboard and trailed Calgary, 11-9, in shots on goal. The Flames also led in blocked shots (10-6), giveaways (8-4) and face-off win percentage (63-38) through 20 minutes, while the Bruins led in takeaways (5-3) and hits (11-10).

    Calgary had yet to see time on the power play, while Boston was 1/3 entering the first intermission.

    Just over a minute into the second period, Lindholm (20) tied the game, 2-2, having followed up on a rebound generated by Johnny Gaudreau.

    Boston used their coach’s challenge on the basis that there was goaltender interference, but after review, the call on the ice still stood as Lindholm had tapped the puck in with his stick without any contact with Halak after Gaudreau’s initial shot.

    Gaudreau (38) and Noah Hanifin (17) had the assists at 1:05 of the second period.

    Less than a minute later, while in the attacking zone, Patrice Bergeron sent a pass back to the point where Torey Krug one-timed a slap pass to Marchand (14) in front of the goal for the redirection from point blank.

    Marchand’s goal put Boston ahead, 3-2, at 1:41 of the second frame and was assisted by Krug (21) and Bergeron (21).

    Zdeno Chara took a minor penalty for cross checking Austin Czarnik at 7:09, which the Bruins killed off, then followed up with a high-sticking infraction from DeBrusk at 10:13.

    While on the penalty kill, the Bruins allowed a 3-on-0 opportunity for the Flames and were penalized for too many men on the ice at 11:31.

    Boston killed off the ensuing 5-on-3 disadvantage.

    Late in the period, the two clubs swapped minor penalties as Marchand went to the box for cross checking at 18:39 and Lindholm was sent to the visiting sin bin for interference at 19:53.

    Both teams went into the dressing room tied, 2-2, after two periods, with the Flames leading in shots on goal, 21-20.

    Calgary also led in takeaways (9-7), giveaways (14-12) and face-off win% (58-42) through 40 minutes with Boston leading in hits (20-16). Both teams had 11 blocked shots aside, while the Flames were 0/4 on the power play and the B’s were 1/3.

    Less than a minute into the third period, Pastrnak chased down a puck that Krug had indirectly slap passed off the end boards from about 160 feet away.

    No. 88 in black-and-gold then deked and beat Smith to make it, 4-2, for Boston just 54 seconds into the final frame. Krug (22) and Halak (3) had the assists on the goal.

    Halak’s three assists this season are the most by a Bruins goaltender since Tim Thomas had three assists in the 2010-11 season.

    About midway through the third period, Gaudreau (23) scored from below the goal line– banking the puck off of Halak and in to bring the Flames to within one and make it, 4-3, at 9:27 of the third.

    Sean Monahan (29) and Hanifin (18) had the assists on Gaudreau’s goal.

    Keeping with the trend of the night, the teams kept swapping goals as DeBrusk (13) added his second goal of the game on a backhand from close range after rushing into the attacking zone with the puck.

    Krejci (26) had the assist on DeBrusk’s goal at 13:46 of the third period and the Bruins led, 5-3.

    Moments later, Mikael Backlund (9) made it a one-goal game again with a backhand shot of his own that sailed over the glove side of Halak and into the twine to make it, 5-4.

    Mark Giordano (33) and Rasmus Andersson (3) notched the assists at 16:27.

    Flames head coach, Bill Peters, pulled Smith for an extra attacker with about 1:54 remaining in regulation. Shortly thereafter, Marchand (15) put the game away with an empty net goal to make it, 6-4, for the Bruins at 18:10.

    Pastrnak (27) and Bergeron (22) had the assists on Marchand’s second goal of the game as the B’s scored six or more goals for just the fourth time this season.

    At the final horn, Boston secured the win, despite trailing in shots on goal, 37-27, to the Flames.

    The Bruins finished the night leading in blocked shots (16-13) and hits (27-22), while Calgary wrapped up Thursday night’s action with the lead in giveaways (20-16) and face-off win% (60-40).

    The Flames finished the night 0/4 on the skater advantage, while the B’s went 2/4 on the power play.

    Pastrnak now has 6-16–22 totals in his last 14 games and was the only Bruin named to the 2019 Honda NHL All-Star Game in San Jose for the Atlantic Division.

    Bruins fans can vote for a “Last Man In” representative in each division, with Boston’s “Last Man In” candidate being Bergeron.

    The B’s take on the Buffalo Sabres on Saturday before staying at home for the Minnesota Wild next Tuesday (Jan. 8th) and the defending Stanley Cup champion, Washington Capitals, next Thursday (Jan. 10th).

    Upon the conclusion of the current four-game homestand, Boston travels to Scotiabank Arena for a matchup with the Toronto Maple Leafs next Saturday (Jan. 12th).

  • Numbers Game: 2018-19 League Forecast Entering January

    Happy New Year!

    It’s time to figure out whether or not your team has a legitimate chance of winning the Stanley Cup, making the playoffs, being a seller at the trade deadline or a basement dwelling rebuilder in desperate need of anything but what is happening right now.

    Teams have begun to reach the official halfway point in the regular season (41 games played out of an 82-game schedule) as the calendar flips from 2018 to 2019.

    Here’s a glance at the latest forecast based on how the league standings were through December 31, 2018.

    Keeping in mind, there’s no guarantees with any forecast, but rather general trends and “educated” guesses. It’s not always about the exact number of points expected on the season. Sometimes the focus is on the spread or each team’s positioning in the standings.

    There’s always context. Plus, nothing’s impossible until it’s mathematically impossible.

    So let’s take a look around the league and figure out the future– well, rest of this season, at least.

    Projected Standings After Three Months

    Eastern Conference

    Atlantic Division

    1. p-Tampa Bay Lightning, 125 points (40 GP entering Jan. 1st)
    2. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 111 points (39 GP)
    3. x-Boston Bruins, 98 points (39 GP)
    4. wc2-Montreal Canadiens, 97 points (40 GP)
    5. Buffalo Sabres, 96 points (40 GP)
    6. Florida Panthers, 84 points (38 GP)
    7. Detroit Red Wings, 75 points (41 GP)
    8. Ottawa Senators, 72 points (40 GP)

    The Tampa Bay Lightning are the dominant team in the NHL right now. There’s no other comparison. They’re in a league of their own.

    Though the Toronto Maple Leafs have surged into one of the league’s most prominent teams this season, they’re no match for the Lightning in the regular season standings Atlantic Division race.

    The postseason might be another story– too bad we won’t get to see these teams meet up in the Eastern Conference Final with the current playoff format.

    For the Boston Bruins, a lackluster 7-7-0 month of December has taken a toll on their outlook. Sure, winning five out of their last seven games is a good sign and all, but missed opportunities and blown chances regardless of the injury status of many of their players this season has brought them back to Earth this season.

    Regression in hockey, however, is to be expected– even for teams that outperformed expectations. Last season was just that– exceeded expectations in the regular season for Boston.

    How will Bruce Cassidy jumpstart scoring depth throughout his lineup if General Manager Don Sweeney doesn’t do anything to add? Time will tell.

    But they’re running out of time as long as Claude Julien and Phil Housley are in consideration for some Jack Adams Award nominations.

    Though the Buffalo Sabres have slumped a bit in the last month, the Montreal Canadiens have solidified themselves as a potential spoiler in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

    If it’s not them, it’s definitely Buffalo for sure.

    The race for the Eastern Conference wild card spots should come down to three teams– Buffalo, Montreal and the New York Islanders (unless the Islanders snag a divisional spot in the Metropolitan Divsion– more on that later).

    Look, as good as some players on the Florida Panthers are, it’s not happening this year.

    And for all the hype regarding the Detroit Red Wings early in the season? Yeah, it’s the same as last year. They’re not doing so hot either.

    There’s some good news if you’re an Ottawa Senators fan– wait, they traded their 2019 1st round pick in the draft to the Colorado Avalanche as part of the three-team Matt Duchene trade and didn’t protect it (because they chose to protect 2018’s 1st round pick and offer up 2019’s instead)? Oh. Never mind.

    Metropolitan Division

    1. y-Washington Capitals, 109 points (38 GP)
    2. x-Pittsburgh Penguins, 103 points (39 GP)
    3. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 102 points (39 GP)
    4. wc1-New York Islanders, 98 points (38 GP)
    5. New York Rangers, 90 points (38 GP)
    6. Carolina Hurricanes, 80 points (38 GP)
    7. New Jersey Devils, 80 points (38 GP)
    8. Philadelphia Flyers, 78 points (38 GP)

    As we get closer to “the stretch” things are heating up in the Metropolitan Division, which might not be as full of garbage as once thought earlier in the year.

    For now, the Washington Capitals appear to be in a serious “defend the castle” mood. They’re the defending champions and they’re pretty hard to beat.

    But the Pittsburgh Penguins are surging. The Pens are on a seven-game winning streak and they’re outscoring their opponents, 28-9, during that span.

    What’s necessary to take into account in the divisional spots in the Metropolitan Division is not that the Capitals should lead the way, but rather, that Washington only has a six-point lead in the current forecast over the Penguins– and seven points over the Columbus Blue Jackets (who somehow find themselves in the “top dog” conversation?)– therefore, anything is up for grabs.

    If the Islanders don’t scratch and claw their way into a divisional spot, they’ll be a wild card team.

    It’s not a completely lost season for the New York Rangers, but it’s not one that’ll end with a playoff berth either.

    The same could almost be said for the Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils, except one’s a little more inconsistent (and worse off), while the other’s just worse.

    Sure, the Devils are nowhere to be found this season, but Mackenzie Blackwood could change that outlook next year.

    And if Carter Hart‘s ready to take on the full-time role of starting netminder for the Philadelphia Flyers that probably wouldn’t do much for them this season, but it’s promising moving forward.

    This year’s Flyers team just goes to show that the problem’s beyond a GM and coaching change, so don’t be surprised to see some roster turnover.

    Western Conference

    Central Division

    1. z-Winnipeg Jets, 107 points (39 GP)
    2. x-Nashville Predators, 96 points (40 GP)
    3. x-Colorado Avalanche, 91 points (40 GP)
    4. wc2-Dallas Stars, 89 points (40 GP)
    5. Minnesota Wild, 87 points (38 GP)
    6. St. Louis Blues, 81 points (37 GP)
    7. Chicago Blackhawks, 77 points (41 GP)

    The Winnipeg Jets are one of two teams in serious contention for the Western Conference regular season title– and the Nashville Predators won’t even get to raise a banner next season for it.

    Nashville’s been on shaky ground for the last month and, as a result, it shows in the latest forecast. Inadequacy ruptures standards or expectations.

    Anyway, between Winnipeg and the Calgary Flames one of those teams will be the best in the West at the end of the regular season.

    It says something as a whole about the Central Division when the Colorado Avalanche are currently forecasted to slip into a divisional spot in the postseason with 91 points in the standings.

    Usually about 95 points puts you within the wild card range and anything 98 or above brings you into serious contention for a divisional berth.

    What all of this means is there’s a lot of uncertainty from the Avs, Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild in terms of where they end up, ultimately.

    All three teams have been all over the place– at times– this season.

    Fear not, though, they’re nothing like the St. Louis Blues and Chicago Blackhawks. Nothing makes sense in St. Louis, short of obvious locker room problems and a lack of leadership.

    Whereas, in Chicago, the game plan was already reset to “longterm” last season by default (having finished last in the division). Jeremy Colliton‘s job security is safe for now.

    There weren’t high expectations coming into the season for the Blackhawks and there weren’t immediate expectations for Colliton in their transition from Joel Quenneville to their 33-year-old head coach.

    Essentially, firing Quenneville when they did was an easy way out of having to make things more awkward(?) with a rebuild, but it kind of was anyway given when they did it.

    At least they’re not their rivals in St. Louis– let alone the Los Angeles Kings– where expectations were high after reaping some rewards in the offseason.

    Pacific Division

    1. y-Calgary Flames, 103 points (40 GP)
    2. x-Vegas Golden Knights, 100 points (42 GP)
    3. x-San Jose Sharks, 98 points (41 GP)
    4. wc1-Anaheim Ducks, 92 points (41 GP)
    5. Vancouver Canucks, 83 points (42 GP)
    6. Edmonton Oilers, 82 points (39 GP)
    7. Arizona Coyotes, 76 points (39 GP)
    8. Los Angeles Kings, 75 points (40 GP)

    The Flames are red hot. Can they make 2019 more like 1989 and less like 2004? Does having a goaltender even matter any more?

    Luck’s starting to turn in Vegas as the Golden Knights have come alive and look to make a serious claim at potentially knocking Calgary off from the Pacific Division lead– if they can catch them first.

    Despite their ups and downs, the San Jose Sharks are still a divisional playoff berth kind of team. Expect them to be out of the playoffs before the Western Conference Final though. Surely Martin Jones‘ below average season has to catch up to him at some point, regardless of scoring power.

    With no real competition below them, the Anaheim Ducks are a wild card team that will likely continue to live in the First Round elimination hell until John Gibson single handedly plays every position for the club.

    The Vancouver Canucks have Elias Pettersson and look ready to bring up Thatcher Demko for a full-time role in net, so it’s kind of on, but a little late. Next season!

    Everyone said Ken Hitchcock would turn around the Edmonton Oilers and was dancing in the streets when his first half-dozen games brought the Oilers back into being relevant.

    Well, everyone, except me. Hitchcock’s shtick isn’t fit for the contemporary NHL anymore and his last (and only) Cup win came 20 years ago.

    Sure he might impart some lessons on leadership, but as long as Peter Chiarelli is trading away Drake Caggiula for Brandon Manning and ensuring guys like Milan Lucic are part of the longterm vision…

    The Arizona Coyotes haven’t panned out and it’s not the numbers that have been lying to them. Dylan Strome, their 3rd overall pick in 2015, didn’t develop as planned– whether through the fault of the Coyotes or not– and they traded him.

    That draft was four years ago and Mitch Marner was selected after Strome by the Maple Leafs. Hindsight is 20/20, but still.

    If it’s any consolation, Mikko Rantanen was selected by Colorado, 10th overall, so Carolina, New Jersey, Philly, Columbus and San Jose all missed out on one of the current leaders in scoring.

    Scouting’s not Arizona’s strong-suit from year-to-year, or rather, asset management as a whole it’s just… …not there.

    Finally, Los Angeles, the Grim Reaper’s at the door. Bring out your dead (Cup hopes and dreams for 2019). It’s time to rebuild.