Down the Frozen River

Tag: Tuukka Rask

Boston Through 20

By: Nick Lanciani

Hey guys, below you’ll see a look at my current projections for Boston Bruins skaters and goaltenders through 20 games into the season. Compared with the projections entering this season, David Pastrnak is a bright spot for the Bruins, Patrice Bergeron is off to a slow start (and that will affect his season totals) and well, they’re a team that’s capable of being the team that they currently are (outside of a playoff spot).

If you’re big into plus-minus, then you might want to look away from my Boston projections for their remaining 62 games (okay 61 now technically, with their loss to Calgary on Friday night, but that game was not included in any of my calculations).

I’ll have an updated look at how the B’s are progressing through 40 games played when the time comes. Likewise, I’ll have a look at the Arizona Coyotes through 20 games, hopefully in the next few days (if not, it’s because I’m busy presenting my Corsi capstone project— wish me luck, I guess).

And as I always write:

“Keep in mind, every stat is based off of a player’s entire career and may not reflect well with the other stats projected for this current season (a.k.a. goals + assists might not equal the number of points shown in the points category), because again, each stat is forecasted individually.

Italics indicates a player currently with their respective AHL affiliate. Underlined player stats indicate a player on the IR (which, admittedly, I’ll do my best to keep up with, but might not have perfect every time, so forgive me if I mistakenly label an injury or fail to label one entirely).”

Boston Bruins Projections- Through game 20 of 82

Bruins forwards

Bruins goalies

Corsi for% projections for Boston roster skaters

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November 26, 2016
November 24 – Day 43 – I’m thankful for hockey
On behalf of Down the Frozen River, allow me to wish you and yours a Happy Thanksgiving. Unless you’re Canadian, because I’m 43 days late.

Oops.

All I’ve heard this week is about how Thanksgiving is about food, family and football. While these things may be true, you and I both know they’re missing one vital thing: hockey. Luckily for us, the NHL has us covered with two games tonight – Carolina at Montréal (NHLN/RDS/SN360) and Boston at Ottawa (RDS2). Both drop the puck at 7:30 p.m. eastern time.

One game is between two quality Atlantic Division rivals. The other features the team fifth from the bottom in the Eastern Conference standings. You tell me which one we’re watching.

Welcome to the Canadian Tire Centre the 11-8-0 Boston Bruins, a team that has been led by their defense and goaltending so far this season, which is surprising giving last season’s effort.

At 228 goals, the Bruins allowed the 12th-most goals against in the league last year. This season, they allow only 2.32 per game – the fifth-best rate in the NHL. That success starts with 11-3-0 Tuukka Rask, who has a 1.57 GAA on a .942 save percentage, the third and sixth-best effort, respectively, among the 44 netminders with seven or more appearances.

Part of the reason Rask has found such success is the blueline playing in front of him. He has faced only 27.3 shots per game this year, the fourth fewest in the league. In comparison, the Bruins allowed 30.4 a season ago. That three-shot improvement has been headlined by Captain Zdeno Chara‘s 41 blocks, trailed closely by rookie Brandon Carlo‘s 38. A defensive specialist, the youngster has been a fantastic call-up effectively straight from the juniors (he played only six games at the end of the year in Providence).

As could be expected, the Bruins‘ defensive success has carried to the penalty kill, where they tie for seventh-best in the league with a 85.7% success rate.

Where Boston falters is on the power play. Led by David Krejci‘s five power play points (even though David Pastrnak has three goals on the man-advantage), the Bruins rank ninth-worst in the NHL with the man-advantage, as they’re successful on only 14.8% of their attempts.

The 11-7-0 Senators are the third-best team in the Atlantic Division, and just like Boston, I’ve been most impressed with their defense and goaltending, as they’ve only allowed 49 goals against, which ties for 11th-fewest in the NHL.

9-4-0 Craig Anderson has been the man between the pipes most often for the Sens, earning a .928 save percentage for a 2.32 save percentage – the 11th and 17th-best effort among those 44 goaltenders mentioned earlier with seven or more appearances.

In comparison to Rask, it doesn’t seem like he’s anywhere near as successful. But that’s too easy an answer. Anderson faces 31.6 shots-per-game, the sixth-highest rate in the NHL, and second-highest among clubs that would qualify for the playoffs if they started today. To put it plainly, this blueline simply is not cutting it. The top-three defensemen (Cody Ceci [42], Captain Erik Karlsson [53] and Dion Phaneuf [41]) may have over 40 blocks to their credit, but the rest of the team has yet to break the 24-block mark. Their efforts need to improve soon, or else General Manager Pierre Dorion may be forced to make a move if he wants his team to qualify for the postseason.

One facet of the game where Ottawa certainly has the advantage is on their penalty kill. Pairing with Boston‘s poor power play, Ottawa has the fourth-best penalty kill, nullifying 86.4% of their infractions. Of course, Jean-Gabriel Pageau remains a scoring threat on the penalty kill, as he had nine short-handed points last season to lead the league.

Boston regains the advantage when the Senators earn the power play. Led by Mike Hoffman‘s two power play goals, Ottawa has found the back of the net on only 10.5% of their extra-man attacks – the second-worst rate in the league.

Some players to keep an eye on include Boston‘s Chara (+12 [tied for fourth-best in the NHL]), Pastrnak (10 goals [tied for seventh-most in the league]) and Rask (11 wins [tied for most in the NHL], including three shutouts [tied for second-most in the league], on a 1.57 GAA [third-best in the NHL] and a .942 save percentage [seventh-best in the league]) & Ottawa‘s Anderson (two shutouts [tied for fifth-most in the NHL] among nine wins [tied for eighth-most in the league]).

This should be a fantastic game, and not just because the other game probably won’t be as good. Vegas doesn’t have a line marked for this one, but I’m favoring the Bruins to pull off the road upset.

Hockey Birthday
- Keith Primeau (1971-) – This center was the third-overall pick in the 1990 NHL Entry Draft by Detroit. In 2000, his first season in Philadelphia, he ended the longest overtime playoff game in NHL history by burying a game at the 92:01 mark. Yes, you read that right: that’s over a game-and-a-half of play.
- Christian Laflamme (1976-) – A defenseman, he was drafted 45th-overall in the 1995 NHL Entry Draft by Chicago, where he spent most of his eight seasons.
I expected New York to put the whipping on the Penguins at Madison Square Garden, but the opposite happened, with Pittsburgh winning 6-1.

The lone goal of the first period was the only shot that got past Matthew Murray. 4:22 into the game, Rick Nash (Chris Kreider and Mats Zuccarello) scored a power play wrister to give the Blueshirts an early lead.

The Penguins began their five-goal second period onslaught only 2:02 after returning to the ice with a wrist shot from Scott Wilson (Second Star of the Game Phil Kessel and Third Star Nick Bonino). 2:56 later, First Star Sidney Crosby (Ian Cole) gave Pittsburgh a lead they would not yield.

Kessel (Bonino), Crosby (Kris Letang) and Conor Sheary (Crosby and Carl Hagelin) all added insurance goals in the second, and Matt Cullen (Justin Schultz and Eric Fehr) notched another in the third.

Murray earns the victory after saving 16-of-17 shots faced (94.1%), while Henrik Lundqvist takes the loss, saving 13-of-17 (76.5%). He was replaced following Crosby’s second goal after 32:57 of play by Antti Raanta, who saved 19-of-21 (90.5%) for no decision.

Pittsburgh‘s victory is the fourth-straight for the visiting teams in the DtFR Game of the Day series. It pulls the roadies within seven points of the homers, who have a 24-14-7 record.
November 24, 2016
November 8 – Day 27 – Could there be any other?
Happy Tuesday! For me, that means band rehearsal, but you get to kick back and watch some hockey. You’ve picked the right night to do that, as there’s quite a selection of games to choose from, starting with five at 7 p.m. (Carolina at New Jersey, Vancouver at the New York Rangers, Detroit at Philadelphia, Edmonton at Pittsburgh and San Jose at Washington), followed half an hour later by two more (Los Angeles at Toronto [TVAS] and Boston at Montréal [RDS]). 8 p.m. marks the beginning of a couple more contests (Ottawa at Nashville [RDS2] and Dallas at Winnipeg), with Arizona at Colorado, this evening’s nightcap, dropping the puck an hour later. All times eastern.

I know we just watched them last night, but we’re going to hop on the Bruins‘ plane to Montréal to catch them take on the best team in the league in one of the best rivalries in North America.

The last time these two met, Montréal upset the Bruins 4-2 in the TD Garden. Don’t think for a moment that Boston has forgotten.

These are two proud franchises, with 30 Stanley Cups between them, and the rivalry between requires no introduction.

As stated yesterday, the 7-5-0 Bruins‘ strength is found between the pipes and along the blue line. They have allowed 32 goals so far this season, led by 7-1-0 Tuukka Rask‘s .941 save percentage and 1.74 GAA. So good has Rask been that he’s earned two shutouts even when facing 29.7 shots per game, the 13th-fewest allowed by a team’s defense in the NHL.

While 13th is far from the top of the list, it is probably better than most would consider the Bruins‘ defense to be. So far this season, they’ve been led by Brandon Carlo and Zdeno Chara, who have 30 and 26 blocks respectively.

The defense has been especially good on the penalty kill, refusing to yield a goal on 84.3% of opposing man-advantages, the ninth-best rate in the best hockey league in the world.

Their opposition this evening are the 10-1-1 Canadiens. While they’ve played fantastically so far on both ends of the ice, I’m most impressed with their offense, which has managed 39 goals in 12 games (3.25 per game).

Twenty Habs have notched a point so far this season (including goaltender Al Montoya!), but the two that have really stood out have been center Alex Galchenyuk and defenseman Shea Weber, who have 11 and 10 points respectively. In addition, Torrey Mitchell has struck five goals so far for Le Bleu-Blanc-Rouge to lead the club.

Some players to keep an eye on include Boston‘s Brad Marchand (14 points [tied for fourth-most in the league] on nine assists [tied for seventh-most in the NHL]), David Pastrnak (eight goals [tied for the league-lead] and a +11 [tied for sixth-best in the NHL]) and Rask (seven wins [tied for second-most in the league], two of which are shutouts [tied for third-most in the NHL], on a 1.74 GAA [fifth-best in the league] and .941 save percentage [sixth-best in the NHL]) & Montréal‘s Carey Price (.952 save percentage [second-best in the league] for a 1.57 GAA [fourth-best in the NHL] and seven wins [tied for second-most in the league], one of which was a shutout [tied for seventh-most in the NHL]) and Weber (+15 [leads the league]).

It looks like most books are closed in Vegas regarding this game, which should always get a hockey fan excited. What makes this matchup even more tantalizing is it’s location, as the Canadiens are a perfect 7-0-0 at the Bell Centre, but five of Boston‘s seven wins have been away from the TD Garden. It should be a good contest, but I’m leaning towards a Montréal victory.

Hockey Birthday
- Johnny Bower (1924-) – Known in his day as “The China Wall,” Bower was the goaltender to win four of Toronto‘s 13 Stanley Cups. The two-time Vezina winner played 522 games over 15 seasons, and was inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame in 1976 with a career 250-195-90 record.
- Keith Jones (1968-) – This right wing played 491 games over nine seasons, most of which were with Washington – the team that drafted him. Nowadays, Jones spends his days with the NBCSN studio crew and providing color and analysis for the Flyers‘ local broadcasts. Maybe Philadelphia will give him a victory over Detroit for his 48th.
Yesterday’s Game of the Day was our fourth-straight lopsided victory, as Boston beat Buffalo 4-0.

After a scoreless first period, Marchand (Pastrnak and Third Star of the Game Matt Beleskey) scored a power play wrister that proved to be the game-winner 5:44 into the middle frame.

Second Star David Krejci (Torey Krug and Ryan Spooner), Riley Nash and Pastrnak (Austin Czarnik and John-Michael Liles) accounted for the three insurance goals.

First Star Rask saved all 32 shots he faced to earn the shutout victory, while Robin Lehner saved 38-of-42 (90.5%) in the loss.

Boston‘s victory extends the home teams’ advantage to six points in the DtFR Game of the Day series with a record of 16-10-3.
November 8, 2016
November 7 – Day 26 – Buffalo-Boston bout
We’ve got three games on the schedule this evening, and they’ll all be played at almost the same time. Two games drop the puck at 7 p.m. (Buffalo at Boston [SN/TVAS] and Vancouver at the New York Islanders (NHLN]), with Tampa Bay at Florida going underway half an hour later. All times eastern.

Short list:
- Buffalo at Boston: Over 40 years this rivalry has been waged, including eight playoff series. Not only does it rage in the TD Garden this evening, but also at DtFR headquarters.
- Tampa Bay at Florida: Round two of the Governor’s Cup goes down tonight.
Given that Boston and Buffalo are tied on points, we’ll catch their game in the City on a Hill.

The Sabres entered the league in 1970, and the rivalry has only intensified since. Boston has a 156-141-29 all-time advantage over the Sabres for a well-contested series in addition to their eight postseason meetings.

They last met in the playoffs during the 2009-’10 season in the Eastern Quarterfinals, with Boston winning the series 4-2. That victory gave the Bruins a 6-2 series record against Buffalo in the playoffs, but they were upset a round later that year by Philadelphia.

The Sabres enter tonight’s game with a 5-4-2 record. While they have had some offensive struggles with Nicolas Deslauriers, Jack Eichel and Evander Kane finding themselves on the injury report, Buffalo has stood strong on the defensive end, allowing only 24 goals against – the fourth-best mark in the league.

Robin Lehner has started eight games for Buffalo this year, accounting for a 4-3-1 record on a .929 save percentage and 2.14 GAA. Given the defense playing in front of him, those numbers are very good. The Sabres defense has allowed 334 shots to reach their goaltenders already this season, which breaks down into 30.4 shots against per game.

Should the Sabres want to continue improving (odds are good that they do), more than Josh Gorges and Rasmus Ristolainen, who have 22 and 20 blocks respectively, need to contribute to alleviate pressure on their goaltender. Zach Bogosian has blocked the third-most shots so far this season, and only has 15 to his credit.

The special team Buffalo is most proud of has been their power play, which accounts for 32% of their goals. The Sabres have been successful on 22.22% of their attempts, which ranks as the ninth-best effort in the NHL, and half of their eight power play goals have been scored by Matt Moulson.

Boston enters the night with a 6-5-0 record, a position I feel they are fortunate to be in. Defense and goaltending has been the strength of the Bruins, if you could call an end of the ice that has allowed 32 goals in 11 games a strength. The offense has been even poorer, scoring only 25 times.

Last season, Boston was home to the fifth-most potent offense in the NHL, scoring 236 goals to average 2.88 per game. Almost a month into the season, the Bruins average only 2.27 goals per game to rank fifth-worst. Brad Marchand has done a good job to lead the team with 13 points, trailed closely behind by David Pastrnak‘s 10, but the remaining Bruins have yet to break the five-point mark.

If the Bruins don’t figure their offense out, at least they can hang their caps on having the 10th best penalty kill in the league. Allowing eight extra-man tallies against, they’ve killed 83.33% of their penalties.

Some players to keep an eye on include Boston‘s Marchand (nine assists [tied for sixth-most in the NHL]), Pastrnak (seven goals [tied for fourth-most in the league] and a +11 [tied for sixth-best in the NHL]) and Tuukka Rask (six wins [tied for fourth-most in the league], including a shutout [tied for sixth-most in the NHL]) & Buffalo‘s Anders Nilsson (1.95 GAA [10th-best in the league] on a .937 save percentage [10th-best in the NHL]), Kyle Okposo (five goals [leads the team]) and Ristolainen (eight assists [leads the team]).

Boston has been marked by Vegas with a -160 advantage, but I think they’re wrong. I’m picking the upset due to Buffalo‘s defense being more than able to contain the Bruins‘ anemic offense.

Hockey Birthday
- Michel Picard (1969-) – This left wing played 166 games over nine seasons in the NHL with six teams, 36.7% of which were in St. Louis from 1997-’99. Nowadays, he’s an amateur scour for the Blues.
- Mike Commodore (1979-) – The 42nd overall selection in the 1999 NHL Entry Draft, this defenseman played 484 games over 11 seasons, mostly with Carolina, the team he won his lone Stanley Cup with.
- Pascal Leclaire (1982-) – The eighth overall pick in the 2001 NHL Entry Draft, and first goaltender selected, Leclaire played 173 games over seven seasons to total a 61-76-15 record. Most of those games were played with the team that drafted him: the Columbus Blue Jackets.
With two goals in the second period, the Anaheim Ducks beat the Calgary Flames 4-1 in yesterday’s Game of the Day.

The Ducks found the scoreboard first, and didn’t wait long to do it. 2:29 after beginning the game, First Star of the Game Clayton Stoner (Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf) scored a wrister to give Anaheim the lead. With 3:45 remaining in the period, Calgary drew even when Alex Chiasson (John Gaudreau and Sean Monahan) found the back of the net for the Flames. The one-all score held into the first intermission.

The Ducks were quick starters again in the second period, waiting only 3:18 before Second Star Ryan Kesler (Perry and Getzlaf) scored the game-winning wrister.

Andrew Cogliano (Jakob Silfverberg and Josh Manson) and Kesler (Perry and Getzlaf) scored the two insurance goals for Anaheim to secure the victory.

Third Star Jonathan Bernier earns the victory after saving 25-of-26 shots faced (96.2%), while Chad Johnson takes the loss after saving 17-of-21 (81%).

Anaheim‘s victory on the Pond pads the home squads’ lead in the DtFR Game of the Day series, setting the homers’ record at 15-10-3 to lead the roadies by four points.
November 7, 2016
October 26 – Day 15 – The Boston-New York thing is happening again
We’ve got four games to choose from tonight! Montréal visits the New York Islanders at 7 p.m. (RDS/SN1), followed an hour later by Boston at the New York Rangers (NBCSN/TVAS). 9:30 p.m. brings with it Washington at Edmonton (SN1/SN360) and this evening’s nightcap, Nashville at Anaheim, drops the puck an hour later. All times eastern.

Short list:
- Boston at New York: In addition to being hockey’s more recognized iteration of the Boston vs. New York rivalry, tonight also marks Dominic Moore‘s first return to Madison Square Garden, his home arena of the last three seasons.
- Nashville at Anaheim: Remember the Western Quarterfinals a year ago? The Ducks wish you wouldn’t.
This may be Moore’s 10th team, but his story is worth repeating and makes the rivalry between these clubs a little bit more interesting.

Tonight is far from Moore’s first time in the visitor’s dressing room in Madison Square Garden – he’s done that 12 times before tonight with half as many teams. Heck, this isn’t even his first return to the World’s Most Famous Arena after time with the Blueshirts, as 2013-’15 was his second stint with the club.

What makes this game special is his signing his second contract with the Rangers in the summer of 2013. The last time Moore was on the ice, he was a member of the San Jose Sharks participating in the 2012 playoffs.

The gap year was far from recreational. Moore’s wife Katie was diagnosed with cancer. Instead of travel across the continent for a seven-month hockey season, he stayed by her side until she ultimately passed.

The Rangers took a chance with their third round pick in the 2000 NHL Entry Draft and signed him to a one-year deal after he had been off the ice for more than a year, and he didn’t disappoint. He scored 18 points (tied for 12th-most on the team) en route to the Bill Masterton Trophy, earning him a two-year extension. Following the 2015-’16 season, he signed with the Bruins during free agency.

Things haven’t been going so well in Boston, as the Bruins are 3-3-0 after last night’s 5-0 drubbing by the Wild. Their 18 goals-against ties them for 12th worst in the NHL, and that is made even worse by the fact that their three goals-against-per-game ranks even worse, tying for a bottom-11 standing.

Those numbers wouldn’t be quite as bad if the Bruins were scoring like they did last season when they fired 240 goals, the fifth-most in the NHL. This season’s 15 tallies ties for ninth-fewest, once again made worse when taking the number of games Boston has played into account. They average only 2.5 scores-per-game, the sixth-lowest rate in the league and worst in the Atlantic Division.

They’re led offensively by Brad Marchand‘s team-leading nine points and David Pastrnak‘s four goals.

On paper, the 4-2-0 Rangers look like they should be doing much better. They’ve scored the ninth-most goals this season, backed by the great Henrik Lundqvist, who’s led the goaltending department to allowing only 16 goals to tie for ninth-fewest.

They are led offensively by Chris Kreider‘s seven points. Additionally, Jimmy Vesey ties Kreider’s goal totals with three tallies.

Statistics can be misleading though. Even though the Rangers currently have the second-best standing in the Metropolitan Division, they have been unable to find sustained success. Until their last game, a 3-2 victory over the Coyotes, the Blueshirts would win a game, then lose a game. Win a game, then lose a game. Until they prove that they can play consistently, the Rangers are a difficult team to trust.

Some players to keep an eye on in tonight’s game include Boston‘s Marchand (nine points [tied for second-most in the NHL], including six assists [tied for third-most in the league] for a +8 [tied for third-best in the NHL]), Pastrnak (+8 [tied for third-best in the league]) and Tuukka Rask (three wins [tied for third-most in the NHL] on a .947 save percentage [fourth-best in the league] for a 1.67 GAA [tied for fourth-best in the NHL]) & New York‘s Lundqvist (three wins [tied for third-most in the league]).

Most establishments in Vegas mark bets as off in this contest, but I don’t think it’s the same scenario as when San Jose visited Pittsburgh last week. Given them riding their first win streak of the season, I’m leaning towards the home Rangers in this one.

Happy Birthday
- Miikka Kiprusoff (1976-) – This Finnish goaltender spent nine of his 12 NHL seasons with Calgary, playing 576 games for the Flames. He’s also earned Team Finland three silver medals (two at the World Championships and the 2004 World Cup).
Troy Brouwer and Second Star of the Game Brian Elliott made good on their return to Scottrade Center in yesterday’s Game of the Day, leading the Flames to a 4-1 victory.

Third Star Dennis Wideman (Brouwer and John Gaudreau) scored a power play wrister only 3:54 after puck drop to give Calgary an early lead. With 9:30 remaining in the frame, Deryk Engelland (Kris Versteeg and First Star Sam Bennett) doubled the Flames‘ lead with the eventual game-winner, a score that would hold into intermission.

Only one goal was struck in the second period, belonging to the visiting squad. Bennett (Dougie Hamilton and Matthew Tkachuk) is the guilty party, scoring 2:16 after returning to the ice.

St. Louis finally got on the board at the 5:49 mark of the final frame with a Kevin Shattenkirk (Vladimir Tarasenko and Colton Parayko) power play wrister, but Gaudreau (Matt Stajan and Micheal Ferland) scored on an empty net with 71 seconds remaining to end any chance of a Blues comeback.

Elliott earns the win after saving 23-of-24 shots faced (95.8%), while Carter Hutton takes the loss, saving 26-of-29 (89.7%).

Calgary‘s win sets the DtFR Game of the Day series at 10-6-1, but that still favors the home sides by four points.
October 26, 2016
October 22 – Day 11 – Not just a rivalry game
It’s Saturday, so you know what that means: a busy day. Everything is being held for prime time, so eight games drop the puck at 7 p.m. (Toronto at Chicago [CBC], Montréal at Boston [CITY/TVAS], Tampa Bay at Ottawa [SN1/SN360], San Jose at Detroit, Colorado at Florida, Minnesota at New Jersey, Carolina at Philadelphia and the New York Rangers at Washington [NHLN]). 8 p.m. brings with it two more contests (Pittsburgh at Nashville and Columbus at Dallas), and the final two games find their start two hours later (Vancouver at Los Angeles [CBC] and St. Louis at Calgary [SN1/SN360]). All times eastern.

Short list:
- Montréal at Boston: One of, if not the best all-time rivalry in hockey. It’s always worth the watch.
- Toronto at Chicago: Another Original Six matchup.
- New York at Washington: This rivalry goes back to the ’80s. Since all of us at Down the Frozen River were born in the ’90s, we’re pretty sure that was a long time ago.
Of those three games, it’s just too hard to ignore the scrap for the Atlantic Division lead between Montréal and Boston going on this evening in the TD Garden.

Two of the top four teams in the Eastern Conference square off this evening and, as I mentioned before, the winner will take the division lead. But, something tells me that a division lead, especially this early in the season, is just icing on the cake between these two.

The Canadiens enter the game with an impeccable 3-0-1 record, with their lone single-point game occurring last weekend In Ottawa.

Although the Habs have scored 16 goals already this season, it has been their blue line and goaltending that has been more impressive. So far, Al Montoya and Carey Price have only allowed six tallies, half the league average, on a combined .955 save percentage.

The home Bruins have a 3-1-0 record, losing their only game last Saturday 4-1 in Toronto.

Just like their counterparts, goaltending has been the Bruins‘ shining spot so far this season, as Tuukka Rask and Anton Khudobin have only allowed nine goals against, collectively saving 92.4% of shots faced.

To properly breakdown how good a goaltending matchup this could be, Montoya and Rask are the top two in the league in save percentage, and both also rank in the top five in goals against average. If presumed starter Price can continue to produce like his backup did to start the season, we should be in for a great game.

Some players to keep an eye on during this evening’s game include Boston‘s David Backes (+7 [tied for third-best in the league]), Brandon Carlo (+7 [tied for third-best in the NHL]), Zdeno Chara (+6 [tied for seventh-best in the league]), Brad Marchand (+9 [tied for the NHL-lead] with nine points [tied for the league-lead] on six assists [tied for the NHL-lead] and three goals [tied for ninth-most in the league]), David Pastrnak (+9 [tied for the NHL-lead] with four goals [tied for second-most in the league] for seven points [tied for fourth-most in the NHL]) and Rask (.947 save percentage [second-best in the league], three wins [tied for second-most in the NHL] and 1.67 GAA [fourth-best in the league]) & Montréal‘s Nathan Beaulieu (+6 [tied for seventh-best in the NHL]), Montoya (1.3 GAA [leads the league] and .962 save percentage [leads the NHL] for a shutout [one of three so far this season] on two wins [tied for sixth-most in the league]) and Shea Weber (+6 [tied for seventh-best in the NHL]).

Last season, the Canadiens took the season series 3-2-0, including two victories in Massachusetts. But, it is the Bruins that are favored in tonight’s game at -124. Although the Habs have played well to start the season, I have a hard time picking against Boston on home ice.

Hockey Birthday
- Ron Tugnutt (1967-) – This goaltender put in 16 NHL seasons, playing most of his 537 games with Quebec (153) and Ottawa (166). Some of the records he still holds are most saves in a regular season contest (70) and highest regular season save percentage.
- Stephane Quintal (1968-) – A long time Canadien, Quintal played 507 of his 1037 games along the blue line in a red sweater. Nowadays, he’s Senior Vice President of Player Safety.
- Miroslav Satan (1974-) – Over 14 NHL seasons, Šatan played for five clubs, but he spent most of his time in Buffalo. The right wing scored 363 scores and ended up with 735 points.
I expected a Predators win in yesterday’s Game of the Day. I was terribly wrong.

This game may come to be known as the Power Play Game, as five of the eight scores were a result of the man-advantage. The first of those tallies was struck 5:17 into the second period when Justin Abdelkader (Third Star of the Game Ryan Sproul and Gustav Nyquist) took advantage of a Filip Forsberg holding penalty four seconds earlier to set the score at 1-0 for the Wings. The Predators struck back 8:56 later with power play goal of their own from P.K. Subban (Roman Josi) on a 5-on-3 play. Still on the power play from Danny DeKeyser sending the puck over the glass, Mike Ribeiro (Ryan Ellis and Viktor Arvidsson) gave Nashville a 2-1 lead with 5:29 remaining in the period. They couldn’t take that lead into the dressing room though, as Drew Miller (Mike Green) beat Pekka Rinne with 40 seconds remaining before the horn to level the score at two-all.

1:10 after returning to the ice, First Star Tomas Tatar (Alexey Marchenko and Jonathan Ericsson) returned the lead to the Red Wings on an even-strength snap shot. Nyquist takes credit for the game-winner, an unassisted snap shot with 8:33 remaining on the game clock. Nashville pulled within one when Mike Fisher (Josi and Forsberg) scored a power play goal, but Darren Helm (Luke Glendening and Henrik Zetterberg) put that comeback to sleep with a power play goal of his own with 22 seconds remaining on an empty-net.

Second Star Petr Mrazek earns the victory after saving 30-of-33 (90.9%), while Rinne takes the loss, saving 38-of-42 (90.5%).

Detroit‘s victory at Joe Louis Arena sets the home teams’ record in the DtFR Game of the Day series at 9-3-1, favoring them by eight points over the visiting squads
October 22, 2016
April 5 – Day 173 – Win and you’re in… for the night…

The New York Islanders took it to the Lightning with three goals in the second period in yesterday’s Game of the Day, winning 5-2.

The only goal of the first period belongs to New York at the 13:18 mark on a Second Star of the Game Ryan Pulock snap shot (his second tally of the season), assisted by Kyle Okposo and First Star John Tavares.

Tampa Bay returns the period 2:08 after returning to the ice thanks to an Alex Killorn backhander, assisted by Nikita Kucherov (his 35th helper of the season) and Matthew Carle. A minute after the midway point, Matt Martin struck the Islanders‘ second goal, assisted by Cal Clutterbuck and Casey Cizikas (his 20th helper of the season). The game-winner found the back of the net 4:23 later, courtesy of Third Star Brock Nelson, his 26th tally of the season, after an assist from Nikolay Kulemin. The 16:15 mark was the next New York goal, a power play slap shot from Tavares, assisted by Frans Nielsen and Okposo (his 39th helper of the season). The final goal of the period belonged to the Bolts, Victor Hedman to be exact, assisted by Carle and Vladislav Namestnikov (his 19th helper of the season), setting the score at 4-2.

Only one goal was struck in the third, and relatively early at that. Johnny Boychuk’s wrister found the back of the net at the 4:28 mark, assisted by Tavares (his 34th helper of the season), his second of the night.

Thomas Greiss earns the win after saving 32 of 34 shots faced (94.1%), while Ben Bishop takes the loss, saving 18 of 23 (78.3%). He was replaced after Boychuk’s goal in the third by Andrei Vasilevskiy, who saved all 13 shots he faced.

New York‘s win is the second straight for the home teams, setting the DtFR Game of the Day series at 80-45-18, favoring the homers by 39 points over the roadies.

If I’ve ever said we have a busy Tuesday schedule, I was lying – this is a busy Tuesday. We’ve got 11 games on tap today, starting with three at 7 p.m. eastern (Carolina at Boston, Buffalo at New Jersey [BELL TV] and the New York Islanders at Washington) and another three half an hour later (Tampa Bay at the New York Rangers [NBCSN/TVAS], Florida at Montréal [RDS] and Pittsburgh at Ottawa [RDS2]). A pair drops the puck at 8 p.m. eastern (Colorado at Nashville and San Jose at Minnesota), with Arizona at Chicago getting underway 30 minutes later. Los Angeles at Calgary drops the puck at 9 p.m. eastern, and Winnipeg at Anaheim (NHLN), this evening’s nightcap, starts an hour later.

Four of those games are divisional rivalries (New York at Washington, Florida at Montréal, Colorado at Nashville and Los Angeles at Calgary), and three are between teams qualifying for the playoffs (New York at Washington, Tampa Bay at New York and San Jose at Minnesota). We’ve also got three playoff rematches from a year ago (New York at Washington [Eastern Quarterfinals], Tampa Bay at New York [Eastern Finals] and Winnipeg at Anaheim [Western Quarterfinals]).

With such a long list, it’s tough to pick a big game, but I think I need to choose the Carolina–Boston game since the Bruins have the chance to get back into playoff position.

This will be Carolina‘s sixth appearance in the Game of the Day, where they own a 2-1-2 record. Their most recent appearance was when Eric Staal made his first return to PNC Arena on the last day of March, when the Canes won 6-4. Boston was last featured Sunday, when they fell 6-4 in Chicago, to set their series record at 8-11-1.

The 34-29-16 Carolina Hurricanes are currently sixth in the Metropolitan Division and 10th in the Eastern Conference, but have already been eliminated from playoff contention. They’ve played the 14th worst defense, but that is good compared to their fourth worst offense. A more in-depth analysis of the Canes‘ game can be found within Thursday’s post.

Carolina last played Saturday to a 5-1 home loss to the Blue Jackets.

The 41-30-8 Boston Bruins currently sit fourth in the Atlantic Division and ninth in the Eastern Conference, making them the first team out of the playoff picture. They’ve played the fourth best offense in the NHL, paired with the 12th worst defense.

Led by Patrice Bergeron’s 272 shots, Boston has fired the puck an incredible 2510 times, with 9.1% finding the back of the net for 233 goals (led by Brad Marchand’s 36 tallies), the fourth most in the league. That success has continued to the power play, where the Bruins‘ 21.08% success rate, good for 48 power play goals (led by Bergeron’s 12 extra man tallies), ranks seventh best in the NHL.

Even with Zdeno Chara’s 122 blocks, the Bruins have allowed 2399 shots to reach 30-22-7 Tuukka Rask and co., who’ve collectively saved 91.4% for 220 goals against, the 12th most in the league. Although the overall defense hasn’t been there, they have clamped down when facing the power play, killing 81.75%, allowing 48 power play goals in the process, the 13th best rate in the league. Further improving on that race, the Bruins have also scored nine shorthanded goals (led by Marchand’s four), three more than the league average.

Boston‘s 6-4 loss in Chicago on Sunday was their last game played. With a win tonight, they will advance past Detroit for the third spot in the Atlantic Division, but the Wings will have a game in hand to react.

Going into the deciding third game, the Bruins leads the season series 1-0-1, but the last game between these two was a 3-2 overtime Carolina winner in Boston on March 10.

Some players to keep an eye on include Boston‘s Bergeron (23 goals [10th most in the league]) and Marchand (36 goals [tied for fifth most in the league]) & Carolina‘s Jeff Skinner (249 shots for 28 goals, 24 of which were at even strength and seven were game winners, for 50 points [all lead the team]) and Jordan Staal (20 even strength and two shorthanded assists, 161 hits and a +6 [all lead the team]).

I think the Bruins win this game, mostly due to the pressure to get past the Red Wings. A loss tonight is a big issue for Boston, and I don’t think they want to figure out the scenarios to reclaim lost ground.

April 5, 2016
April 1 – Day 169 – No time for April Fools

It wasn’t what I expected, but the Carolina Hurricanes beat the Rangers 4-3 in yesterday’s Game of the Day.

First Star of the Game Patrick Brown opened the scoring at the 11:05 mark of the first period with the first goal of his career, assisted by Second Star Jeff Skinner (his 22nd helper of the season) and Ron Hainesy. That was the only tally of the first, so Carolina took their 1-0 lead into the intermission.

New York leveled only 1:36 after returning to the ice with a Mats Zuccarello wrister, assisted by Derek Stepan (his 27th helper of the season) and Dan Boyle. 3:27 later, they took the lead with a Rick Nash wrister, assisted by J.T. Miller and Ryan McDonagh (his 24th helper of the season). Carolina returned the favor at the 13:27 mark with a goal from Third Star Justin Faulk (his 16th tally of the season), assisted by Sergey Tolchinsky (his first point of his NHL career) and Ryan Murphy. The Rangers took another lead with 2:42 remaining in the period with a Chris Kreider power play wrister, assisted by Stepan and Keith Yandle (his 40th helper of the season). The 3-2 Rangers lead held into the second intermission.

Carolina leveled the game again at the 4:22 mark, courtesy of Skinner (his 27th tally of the season), assisted by Murphy and Brown. The only insurance goal belongs to Victor Rask, a power play snap shot with 9:06 remaining in regulation.

Cam Ward earns the win after saving 24 of 27 shots faced (88.9%), while Henrik Lundqvist takes the loss, saving only 24 of 28 (85.7%).

The fourth straight home win sets the DtFR Game of the Day series at 78-43-18, favoring those home squads by 39 points over the roadies.

We’ve got five games on the schedule this evening, starting at 7:30 p.m. eastern with Minnesota at Detroit (NHLN). 8 p.m. eastern brings with it two games (Boston at St. Louis and Chicago at Winnipeg), followed an hour later by Washington at Colorado. Finally, our nightcap, Vancouver at Anaheim, drops the puck at 10 p.m. eastern.

Almost half of today’s games are divisional rivalries (Chicago at Winnipeg and Vancouver at Anaheim), while only Boston at St. Louis is between playoff qualifiers.

I’m most interested in the Boston–St. Louis game because of the potential impact on the standings possible in both conferences.

This will be Boston‘s 19th appearance in the Game of the Day series, where they own a 7-10-1 record, with their most recent being their 5-2 loss in Madison Square Garden on March 23. St. Louis has been featured 16 times before tonight’s game, and their 5-4 overtime victory in Dallas on March 12 set their season series at 9-6-1.

The 40-29-8 Boston Bruins currently rank third in the Atlantic Division and eighth in the Eastern Conference. To get there, they’ve played the fourth best offense in the NHL paired with the 14th worst defense.

Led by Patrice Bergeron’s 263 shots, Boston has fired the puck an incredible 2436 times, with 9% finding the back of the net for 223 goals (led by Brad Marchand’s 35 tallies), fourth most in the NHL. Part of that success has been due to the power play, who’s 20.64% success rate, good for 45 extra man goals (led by Bergeron’s 11 power play tallies) ranks ninth best in the league.

Even with Dennis Seidenberg’s 243 blocks, the Bruins have allowed 2335 shots to reach 29-22-7 Tuukka Rask and co., of which they’ve collectively saved 91.6% for 209 goals against, the 14th most in the league. The penalty kill slightly steps up their game, neutralizing 81.96% of their infractions for the 14th best rate in the league, allowing 46 extra man goals in the process. Further improving on that rate, Boston has also scored nine shorthanded goals, led by Marchand’s four power play goals.

Boston‘s last game was Tuesday, a 2-1 loss in New Jersey. The Bruins are in desperate need of a win this evening, as anything short of a win paired with a Detroit victory forces the B’s out of playoff position.

The 46-22-9 St. Louis Blues are the second best team in the Central Division as well as the Western Conference. To get there, they’ve played the fifth best defense paired with the 15th worst offense.

Even with Alex Pietrangelo’s 131 blocks, St. Louis has allowed 2280 shots to reach 21-7-6 Brian Elliott and co., of which they’ve collectively saved 92.5% for only 186 goals against, the fifth fewest in the NHL. The penalty kill has been even better than the overall defense, preventing 85.06% of opposing power plays to score, allowing only 39 power play goals in the process.

Led by Vladimir Tarasenko’s 273 shots, the Notes have fired the puck a solid 2324 times, with 8.6% finding the back of the net for 206 goals (led by Tarasenko’s 36 tallies), the 15th fewest in the league. The Blues‘ biggest strength has been their power play, as their 22.02% success rate ranks fourth best in the NHL, good for 48 extra man goals (led by Tarasenko’s 12 power play tallies).

The Blues enter tonight’s game riding a five game winning streak, with their most recent being Tuesday’s 3-1 win over the Avalanche. With a win tonight, they pull back into a tie with Dallas for the top spot in both the division and the conference, but will not move into first place due to a regulation+overtime wins tiebreaker.

St. Louis has already made their yearly visit to Boston, when they won 2-0 on December 22.

Some players to keep an eye on include Boston‘s Marchand (35 goals [seventh most in the league]) & St. Louis‘ Elliott (1.92 GAA [leads the league] and .935 save percentage [leads the league]), Colton Parayko (+26 [tied for eighth best in the league]) and Tarasenko (36 goals [tied for fourth most in the league]).

These teams are a very interesting and even match for each other. Both teams’ strengths correspond with the others, and neither’s weaknesses are fully exploited with the exception of Boston‘s poor penalty kill. Given that, St. Louis‘ hot streak and their home ice, I’m picking the Blues to win this one.

April 1, 2016
March 18 – Day 155 – Boston brings back Beleskey
Thanks to two goals in the second period, the Nashville Predators beat the New York Islanders 4-2 in yesterday’s Game of the Day.

It was a Second Star of the Game James Neal wrister that opened the scoring (his 27th tally of the season), finding the net at the 9:15 mark after an assist from Calle Jarnkrok.

The Isles waited to level the score util 6:02 had passed in the second period. It was Ryan Pulock’s first goal of the season in his eighth career NHL game played, assisted by John Tavares (his 30th helper of the season). The Predators didn’t take kindly to being the first to allow a goal to him though, as they had a two goal lead within 3:52 after his score. Third Star Ryan Ellis scored the first of those tallies at the 8:13 mark on the power play, assisted by First Star Ryan Johansen (his 36th helper of the season) and Mattias Ekholm, followed 1:41 later by Johansen’s game-winning wrister, assisted by Neal (his 19th helper of the season) and Anthony Bitetto. Just as quickly as the Nashville blitz began, it ended, giving the Predators a 3-1 lead going into the second intermission.

Only 1:55 into the third, Brock Nelson’s 23rd tally of the season pulled New York within a goal, assisted by Thomas Hickey. The comeback fell apart though, as Austin Watson’s wrister found the back of an empty net, assisted by Mike Fisher and Colin Wilson (his 17th helper of the season), clinching the Preds‘ victory.

Pekka Rinne earns the win after saving 20 of 22 shots faced (90.9%), while Thomas Greiss takes the loss, saving 28 for 31 (90.3%).

After yesterday’s result, the DtFR Game of the Day series stands at 69-40-16, favoring the home squads by 30 points over the roadies.

We’ve got six games on the schedule this Friday, starting with the first to at 7 p.m. eastern (Ottawa at Buffalo [RDS/Bell TV] and Nashville at Washington [TVAS]). Chicago at Winnipeg starts at 8 p.m. eastern (NHLN), and another pair trails an hour later (Colorado at Calgary and Vancouver at Edmonton). Finally, this evening’s nightcap, Boston at Anaheim, drops the puck at 10 p.m. eastern (SN1).

Half of the games taking place this evening are divisional rivals (Ottawa at Buffalo, Chicago at Winnipeg and Vancouver at Edmonton), and two are between teams currently qualified for the playoffs (Nashville at Washington and Boston at Anaheim).

Our attention is attracted to the Boston–Anaheim game for two reasons:
1. Matt Beleskey will be making his first return to Anaheim as a member of the Bruins
2. It’s Nick’s birthday, so he’s made a special request!
This will be Boston‘s 17th appearance in the Game of the Day series, where they own a 7-8-1 record. Their most recent appearance was March 8, a one-goal overtime victory in Tampa Bay. Anaheim has been featured seven times before tonight’s game, and own a 4-1-2 record in the series, with their most recent being their 3-2 victory in Los Angeles on March 5.

The main reason for tonight’s selection was not only the expected quality of the contest, but also the return of an ex-Duck with seven years tenure on The Pond. Matt Beleskey was drafted by the Ducks in the fourth round of the 2006 NHL Entry Draft. He made his first appearance on the Pond two years later, but began earning regular time with the senior club in the 2010-’11 campaign. It was that season that he scored 11 NHL goals, which stands as the second most during his time in Anaheim and third most in his career.

That 2010-’11 season arguably stood as his best until his 2013-’14 campaign, where he scored 24 points, including 15 assists – and things have only been looking up since. Last season, he scored a career high 22 goals and 10 assists (his first double-double, if you’ll allow me to use some March Madness terminology), which he followed with eight playoff goals (half a goal a playoff contest) before the Ducks were eliminated by the Blackhawks, prompting him to test free agency. The Bruins were impressed, and signed him to a $19.8M contract over five years.

He’s certainly earned that payday so far, as the 33 points he already has to his credit is the best of his career. He’s gotten to that point by scoring 13 goals, and earning 20 helpers to boot.

To be honest, the real reason I know he’s good is he’s on my fantasy team. And I only sign quality talent for my best in the league 17-4-0 squad. You can take that analysis to the bank.

The 39-24-8 Boston Bruins currently occupy second in the Atlantic Division and fourth in the Eastern Conference. They’ve earned that position by playing the third best offense in the league, but that’s been paired with the 13th worst defense.

Led by Patrice Bergeron’s 237 shots, the Bruins have fired the puck 2221 times, with 9.5% finding the back of the net for 215 goals (led by 34 Brad Marchand’s 34 tallies), third most in the league. The power play is just a step behind, as their 21.5% power play success rate, good for 43 extra man goals, ranks seventh best in the league.

Even with Dennis Seidenberg’s 133 blocks, the Bruins have allowed 2190 shots to reach 28-19-7 Tuukka Rask and co., of which they’ve collectively saved 91.8% for 191 goals against, the 13th most in the league. Although the defense a whole hasn’t played well, the penalty kill ranks 10th best with their 82.05% kill rate that has allowed only 42 power play goals against. Further improving on that rate, the Bruins have scored nine shorthanded goals (led by Marchand’s four shorties), four more than the league average.

Boston most recently played Tuesday to a 3-2 loss in San Jose. With a win tonight, the Bruins could pull within a point of the division leading Panthers.

The 38-22-9 Anaheim Ducks are currently the second best team in the Pacific Division, and fifth in the Western Conference. To get to that position, they’ve played the third best defense in the league, but have scored the sixth fewest goals.

Led by Hampus Lindholm’s 102 blocks, the Ducks have allowed only 1884 shots to reach 19-9-6 Frederik Andersen and co., of which they’ve collectively saved 91.9% for only 162 goals against, the third fewest in the league. That success no doubt continues with the special teams, as their 87.04% kill rate is the stingiest in the league, allowing only 32 power play goals.

The offense is what was holding Anaheim back in the beginning of the season, but that issue has certainly been resolved. That being said, even with Corey Perry’s 186 shots leading the Ducks to 2100 attempts, they’ve only connected on 8.2% for 175 goals (led by Perry’s 29), the sixth fewest in the league. Anaheim‘s special team play continues its success with the puck on its stick, as their 23.19% power play success rate, good for 48 power play goals (led by Perry’s 11), is the second best rate in the league.

Anaheim lost their most recent game 2-1 to the Rangers on Wednesday. The most important thing a win does tonight for the Ducks is give them a three point lead over the Sharks for second place in the division.

Anaheim has already made their yearly visit to the TD Garden, and they certainly enjoyed it, winning 6-2 on January 26.

Some players to keep an eye on in tonight’s game include Anaheim‘s Andersen (2.23 GAA [eighth best in the league]) or John Gibson (2.07 GAA [second best in the league]) and Boston‘s Marchand (34 goals [fourth most in the league] and +22 [10th best in the league]).

This should be an interesting game, as Boston‘s offense and Anaheim‘s defense are about equal in strength. Over the course of the entire season, Boston‘s defense has been stronger than the Ducks‘ offense, but I’m not feeling confident enough in that for a game on The Pond. I’ll give a slight edge to Anaheim.
March 18, 2016
March 8 – Day 145 – Another lesson in alliteration: Bruins and Bolts battle for… the Atlantic Division

It took overtime, but Boston was able to continue their season dominance against the Panthers, beating them in a wild 5-4 game.

It took only 34 seconds before Boston took the lead on a Third Star of the Game Patrice Bergeron tip-in (his 27th tally of the season), who was assisted by Brad Marchand and First Star Lee Stempniak. They followed that up with a score at the seven minute mark, scored by David Pastrnak, who was assisted by Matt Beleskey (his 20th helper of the season) and Dennis Seidenberg. The Bruins‘ lead became three goals 5:22 later with a Brett Connolly snap shot (his ninth tally of the season), assisted by Noel Acciari. Florida got a goal back with 3:12 remaining in the period on an Aleksander Barkov wrister, assisted by Jaromir Jagr (his 28th helper of the season) and Jonathan Huberdeau, but Boston returned their lead to three with Bergeron’s second score of the period, assisted by Stempniak (his 30th helper of the season) and Marchand. The 4-1 score held into the first intermission.

Both goals in the second period belonged to the Panthers, with their first occurring only 3:15 after resuming play. It was Second Star Jiri Hudler’s slap shot that found the back of the net, assisted by Huberdeau (his 31st helper of the season) and Erik Gudbranson. Only 2:53 later, Florida pulled within a goal with a Jussi Jokinen power play wrister, assisted by Reilly Smith and Vincent Trocheck (his 22nd helper of the season). The 4-3 score held through the rest of the second period and into the second intermission.

Florida got their leveler with 4:43 remaining in regulation from Hudler, assisted by Alex Petrovic and Nick Bjugstad (his 13th helper of the season). Neither team was able to break the tie, forcing the game into three-on-three overtime.

The Bruins earned the bonus point with a minute remaining in that overtime period, assisted by Ryan Spooner (his 33rd helper of the season) and John-Michael Liles.

Tuukka Rask earns the win after saving 47 of 51 shots faced (92.2%), while Al Montoya takes the overtime loss, saving all but the winner (93.8%). He replaced Roberto Luongo after the first period, who saved only 12 of 16 (75%).

The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 64-37-14, favoring the home side by 29 points over the roadies.

It’s a relatively busy Tuesday in the NHL, especially in comparison to yesterday’s slate of games. The action starts at 7 p.m. eastern with three contests (the New York Rangers at Buffalo, Ottawa at Carolina and Detroit at Columbus), followed half an hour later by three more (Pittsburgh at the New York Islanders [NBCSN], Dallas at Montréal and Boston at Tampa Bay). Nashville at Winnipeg drops the puck at 8 p.m. eastern, followed an hour later by this evening’s nightcap San Jose at Edmonton.

Half of tonight’s games are between divisional rivals (Pittsburgh at New York, Boston at Tampa Bay, Nashville at Winnipeg and San Jose at Edmonton), but only two are between teams currently qualifying for the playoffs (Pittsburgh at New York and Boston at Tampa Bay).

I know that we just featured Boston yesterday, but a regulation win by the Bruins this evening would propel them into first place in the Atlantic Division from third, and that is too much to ignore.

This will be Boston‘s 16th appearance in the Game of the Day series, where they now own a 6-8-1 record after last night’s contest. Tampa Bay has been featured 13 times before tonight, and own a 9-3-1 record in such games. Their most recent showing in the series was a 4-1 victory in Boston on February 28.

The 37-23-7 Boston Bruins currently sit in third place in the Atlantic Division and fifth in the Eastern Conference. To get to that position, they’ve played the third best offense in the league, but it’s been paired with the 12th worst defense. A more in-depth analysis of their game can be found within yesterday’s article.

After yesterday’s win, the Bruins are within a point of the division lead. However, if they want to capture that position, they will need to earn their two points within the 60 minutes of regulation, as Tampa Bay would win the games played tiebreaker should the squads end the evening tied at 83 points apiece.

The 39-23-4 Tampa Bay Lightning currently occupy the top spot in the Atlantic Division and second in the Eastern Conference. To get to that position, they’ve played the fourth best defense in the league, backed by the ninth best scoring offense.

Led by Victor Hedman’s 106 blocks, the Bolts have allowed only 1853 shots to reach 28-17-3 Ben Bishop and co, of which they’ve collectively saved 92.3% for only 155 goals against, the fourth fewest in the NHL. That success continues on the power play, where Tampa Bay kills 83.76% of their penalties, allowing only 32 power play goals, the seventh best rate in the league. Further improving that rate, Tampa also has five shorthanded goals to their credit, led by Brian Boyle’s two.

The offense doesn’t trail too far behind. Even with Steven Stamkos’ 179 shots, the Bolts have fired the puck only 1892 times, but 9.5% have found the back of the net for 183 goals (led by Stamkos’ 29 tallies), ninth most in the league. Even though Tampa has an incredibly accurate offense, their power play is still nowhere near as effective as they would like, as it is successful on only 17.19% of attempts, the sixth worst rate in the league, for 38 power play goals (led by Stamkos’ 12 extra man tallies). Even worse, the Lightning have allowed six shorthanded goals, one more than the league average.

Last night’s 4-2 loss in Philadelphia ended Tampa Bay‘s nine game winning streak, but they don’t have the opportunity to think about what could have been. Tonight, they need to defend their division lead from the Bruins, and push Florida away in the process.

Tampa Bay currently leads the season series 2-1-0, with the most recent meeting being the 4-1 Tampa Bay win in Boston on February 28. Interestingly, neither team has been able to hold home ice, so perhaps Jon Cooper and Claude Julien both use that statistic to their own ends in their pregame speeches.

Some players to keep an eye on in tonight’s game include Boston‘s Bergeron (28 goals [tied for ninth most in the league]), Marchand (33 goals [third most in the league] and +22 [tied for eighth best in the league]) and Rask (four shutouts [tied for fifth most in the league] and 27 wins [tied for seventh most in the league]) & Tampa Bay‘s Bishop (2.06 GAA [leads the league], .926 save percentage [fourth best in the league] and 28 wins [sixth most in the league]) and Stamkos (29 goals [tied for seventh most in the league]).

I think this one goes the Bruins way. Both teams played last night, but the Lightning had to travel home all the way from the City of Brotherly Love. And, of course, neither team has won on home ice against the other. Sounds reason enough for me! Should Tampa reverse that trend, it will be largely up to their defense to keep shots off Bishop’s net.

March 8, 2016