|NHL SCHEDULE: January 21-27|
|TIME (ALL TIMES EASTERN)||VISITOR||HOST||NATIONAL BROADCAST(S)/ Result|
|Monday, January 21|
|4 p.m.||St. Louis||Los Angeles||3-4|
|7 p.m.||San Jose||Florida||2-6|
|Tuesday, January 22|
|7 p.m.||San Jose||Washington||7-6 (OT)|
|8:30 p.m.||New York Islanders||Chicago Blackhawks||2-3 (SO)|
|9 p.m.||Carolina||Calgary||2-3 (OT)|
|Wednesday, January 23|
|7:30 p.m.||Washington Capitals||Toronto Maple Leafs||NBCSN, SN, SN360, TVAS|
|7:30 p.m.||Arizona||Montréal||RDS, SN1|
|10 p.m.||St. Louis||Anaheim|
|Thursday, January 24|
|No games scheduled – All-Star Break|
|Friday, January 25|
|No games scheduled – All-Star Break|
|Saturday, January 26|
|NHL All-Star Game from San Jose, Calif.|
|Sunday, January 27|
|No games scheduled – All-Star Break|
It’s not the most recent forecast, since the Vegas Golden Knights played Game 41 of their 2018-19 regular season on Saturday against the Los Angeles Kings.
Nevertheless, it’s time to take a quick check of the pulse of the Golden Knights– how their season has progressed so far and where it appears to be going from here.
Thanks to some extenuating circumstances, perhaps Vegas fans will forgive me for not being able to get around to their quick forecasted glance after 20 games played this season.
Why? Because it would’ve been pretty dismal and you don’t need that kind of negativity in your life.
Although, now at the halfway mark (officially after the game against the Kings, technically unofficially as of this forecast), things have improved, but with a few concerns remaining.
Nate Schmidt served his 20 game suspension for a performance enhancing drug and for the most part, Vegas’ blue line got the job done.
The team’s record wasn’t desirable, but guys like Shea Theodore and Colin Miller continued to rise past expectations in their ability– even more so now that Schmidt is back and solidified the defensive zone for the Golden Knights.
One thing that has plagued the team all season is subpar goaltending.
Managing playing time in the crease is something to keep in mind and we’ll take a closer look in a minute.
For now, Vegas stands in a divisional spot in the playoffs in the Pacific. Not nearly as dominant as last season, but keeping up with the legitimate(?) playoff contenders in an otherwise weaker division compared to the rest of the league.
Without further ado, here’s a look at the remaining 42 games (now 41) on the season and what to expect from the latest forecast.
Keep in mind, there are many variables that can and will change what goes down from now through the end of the regular season in April, like trades, injuries, general lineup changes, roster moves and anything else unbeknownst to the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet that generates this forecast.
My degree is in communication– not math. It’s “not my fault”.
If a player meets the forecasted stats, then they’ve met expectations. If they exceed their forecasted stats, then they’ve exceed expectations.
And of course, if a player does not live up to the latest forecast, then something went awry (the player could’ve been injured, been unlucky or regressed– a.k.a. didn’t meet expectations).
Puck luck cannot be predicted, but general trends and estimated gut feelings can indicate a sense of what’s to come based on the results of each and every scoresheet night-in and night-out.
Vegas Golden Knights Forecast Through 40 Games (42 Games Remaining)
Every set of blessings comes with a set of curses and this year, that rings truer more than ever before for the Golden Knights. Of course, it’s only their second season in franchise history, but it’s still true.
William Karlsson (24-26–50 expected totals) is having a “down” year compared to last season’s breakout career-year of 43 goals and 35 assists (78 points). Reaching the 50-point plateau is still respectable, but doesn’t scream any guarantees of being on the first line should the postseason roll around.
Head coach, Gerard Gallant, has enough top-six forward depth to play around with if Karlsson starts to head south, considering Alex Tuch‘s expected 22-28–50 totals, Paul Stastny‘s expected 14-22–36 totals and Max Pacioretty‘s expected 21-22–43 totals.
Despite the ever-consistent qualities of Jonathan Marchessault (27-33–60 expected totals) and Reilly Smith (17-32–49 expected totals), this year’s Golden Knights team point spread is more spread out.
As it is, while Marchessault should lead in goals (27), assists (30) and points (60) and Karlsson should be second in goals (24) and points (50), one would think Smith would be second or third in whatever stats Marchessault and Karlsson aren’t leading in.
However, Tuch’s expected point outcome (50) is tied with Karlsson for the second-most points behind Marchessault and Tuch is expected to rank third on Vegas’ roster in goals behind Marchessault and Karlsson with Smith a distant 5th behind Pacioretty’s 21 expected goals this season.
While the offense isn’t as impactful from the forwards, the blue line has really come into its own in Vegas.
Shea Theodore’s expected 8-29–37 totals will be the best of his teammates and fellow defenders in a Golden Knights uniform, leading Colin Miller (5-27–32 expected totals) and Nick Holden (7-17–24 expected totals).
Nick Holden. That’s right. Holden is ahead of Nate Schmidt (5-18–23 expected totals) in the latest forecast.
But that speaks to Holden’s resiliency in his career and the chemistry Gallant has found in his pairing every night– coupled, of course, with the fact that Holden is seeing more time on the ice (in the literal “games played” sense) than he has the last couple of seasons with the New York Rangers and Boston Bruins.
He is a durable top-four defender that’s still in his athletic prime and it is exactly that kind of depth that can take teams deep into a Stanley Cup Final run.
In goal, Marc-Andre Fleury should land around a 2.61 goals against average and .911 save percentage in a season in which he has been overworked thus far.
He will continue to be overworked unless Malcolm Subban regains his footing, Gallant argues for calling someone up from the Chicago Wolves (AHL) or Golden Knights General Manager George McPhee makes an acquisition for a suitable backup option if all else fails.
Fleury has played in 35 of the 40 games up to this forecast. He’s since played in 35 out of the 41 games played by the club this season.
Subban has played in six games and is 0-5-0 in that span. His expected outcomes are a 2.76 GAA and .907 SV%– both below average goaltending the backup role.
Whereas if Vegas wanted to try Oscar Dansk or Maxime Lagace without the pressures of coming into the dressing room in an emergency recall situation– unlike last season– a little healthy competition for the backup role might nudge Subban in the right direction and take off some of Fleury’s workload.
It’s not that Fleury can’t handle 50-plus games anymore as a starting goaltender, but rather, it’s just that he shouldn’t be relied on for about 85% of the games in the regular season as is his current going rate.
Secondary scoring had its fair share Sunday night at TD Garden, but league leader in goals, David Pastrnak is not done producing by any means as he added a goal and an assist in the Boston Bruins, 4-1, winning effort against the Vegas Golden Knights.
Jaroslav Halak (6-1-2, 1.72 goals against average, .945 save percentage in 11 games played) made 37 saves on 38 shots against (.974 SV%) in the win for Boston, while Malcolm Subban (2-1-0, 3.17 GAA, .885 SV% in 4 GP) turned aside 33 out of 37 shots faced for an .892 SV% in the loss for Vegas.
Both teams were playing their second game in two nights, with the Bruins having hosted the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday and the Golden Knights having visited the Montreal Canadiens as part of their four-game road trip.
Boston finished their four-game homestand, 3-1-0, while Vegas went 1-3-0 on their Eastern Conference swing.
The Bruins improved to 10-5-2 (22 points) on the season, good enough for 3rd in the Atlantic Division– tied in points for 2nd place with Toronto, but trailing by one regulation-plus-overtime win.
The Golden Knights fell to 7-10-1 (15 points) so far this season and remained in 7th place in the Pacific Division with the loss– four points ahead of the Los Angeles Kings from the basement of the division.
Bruce Cassidy made two changes to his lineup on the blue line as a result of an injury, but didn’t mix things up among the forwards. Cassidy announced Sunday morning that Brandon Carlo was “questionable” and would be a game-time decision with an upper body injury.
Jeremy Lauzon was an emergency recall on Sunday and would be in the lineup in place of Carlo if No. 25 in black-and-gold wasn’t ready to go.
Cassidy also indicated that he expected to talk with Tuukka Rask about his return from a personal leave of absence with a decision in place by Tuesday before the Bruins hit the road for a four-game road trip. Cassidy suspects Rask will rejoin the team on Tuesday, but wouldn’t commit to a definitive answer until having the appropriate time and place discussion with the goaltender.
Rushing through the neutral zone early in the first period, Danton Heinen worked the puck to Anders Bjork as the Bruins forwards entered the attacking zone. Bjork flipped the puck back to Heinen (2) for the game’s first goal as No. 43 tipped a redirection past Subban to give Boston a 1-0 lead at 2:54 of the first period.
Bjork (2) had the only assist on the goal.
Fellow third liner– and centering the line for the second straight game– Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson had a run in with the penalty calling threshold after he got his stick between the legs of Golden Knights forward and former Bruin, Reilly Smith.
Forsbacka Karlsson went to the box for tripping at 5:43 and Vegas went on the power play for the first time of the night. The Golden Knights failed to convert on the skater advantage.
Almost four minutes later, Pastrnak hooked Jonathan Marchessault and was sent to the sin bin at 9:27 of the first period. Vegas failed to score on the ensuing power play.
For the fifth time in three games, Kampfer found his way to the box with a tripping minor against Ryan Carpenter at 11:55, but the Golden Knights weren’t able to make the Bruins brass pay on the resulting skater advantage.
Late in the first period the Golden Knights caught Halak out of position and sent a chance through the slot that was intercepted by Moore as the Bruins defender was in the right place at the right time with his stick.
Moore then sent Sean Kuraly on rush back the other way and with a dump into the corner and Lauzon chasing, Subban came out of his crease to make a play on the loose puck– except Subban overcommitted.
With a gift sent by the hockey gods themselves, Lauzon (1) had the easiest conversion on his first career National Hockey League goal at 17:51 of the first period. Kuraly (2) and Moore (2) had the primary and secondary assists, respectively.
Not to be outdone, while on a rush to the net, Brad Marchand got tripped by Subban in front of the goal, yielding a 5-on-3 skater advantage for Boston at 18:58 that would extend into the second period if the Bruins didn’t score by the end of the first.
Krejci dove to keep the puck in the zone as time was expiring in the opening frame and generated one last chance before the first intermission on all-around dominant 5-on-3 opportunity to close out the period.
After 20 minutes of game action, the Bruins led, 2-0, on the scoreboard and trailed the Golden Knights, 15-11, in shots on goal. Boston held onto an advantage in blocked shots (3-2), takeaways (5-4) and face-off win percentage (81-19). Vegas led in hits (11-6) after one period and both teams had one giveaway each.
Entering the dressing room for the first intermission the Golden Knights were 0/3 on the power play, while the Bruins were 0/2. That would change in the first minute of the second period.
Patrice Bergeron sent a pass to Pastrnak that got bent out of shape just enough by a Vegas defender for Pastrnak’s only option in the low slot to be to send the vulcanized piece of rubber back to Bergeron off a body.
From there, Marchand (6) was in front of the goal at the right time to receive a quick bumper pass from Bergeron and redirect the puck with elevation into the twine just as the power play was expiring.
Bergeron (16) and Pastrnak (7) had the assist’s on Marchand’s goal at 58 seconds of the second period and the Bruins led, 3-0.
Midway through the middle frame, Alex Tuch stripped Moore of the puck in front of the Boston goal and prior to breaking into the trapezoid, Tuch slid a one-handed pass back to Cody Eakin (5) for a one-timer that beat Halak as Krug was out of position behind the play.
Vegas was on the scoreboard and cut the lead to two-goals as the B’s led, 3-1. Tuch (5) had the only assist on Eakin’s goal at 10:55 of the second period.
Late in the second period, Vegas again gave Boston a 5-on-3 power play for 42 seconds after Brayden McNabb was penalized for holding Marchand at 15:05 and Tomas Nosek was called for tripping Bergeron at 16:24.
The B’s did not convert on either power play opportunity.
Entering the second intermission, Boston led, 3-1, on the scoreboard and, 28-27, in shots on goal. Vegas had an advantage in blocked shots (6-5) and hits (17-13), while the Bruins led in takeaways (9-6), giveaways (7-3) and face-off win% (63-38). The Golden Knights were 0/3 on the power play after 40 minutes and Boston was 0/4.
Vegas notched another penalty as a team at 6:42 of third period having sustained a delay of game face-off violation bench minor infraction. Tomas Hyka served the penalty for the Golden Knights and the Bruins went on the power play.
The B’s did not convert on the ensuing advantage.
Moments later, Kuraly exchanged words with former teammate and current Golden Knights defender, Colin Miller, at 12:04 of third period and earned himself a minor penalty for roughing. Vegas did not score on the resulting power play.
Late in the third, the Golden Knights sent themselves back in momentum with two consecutive tripping penalties being called at the same time thanks to Max Pacioretty tripping Bergeron and Deryk Engelland subsequently getting his stick between the legs of Marchand and bringing the Bruins forward down at 15:40.
Boston converted on the 5-on-3 power play after working the puck around from Pastrnak to Krejci, then across the point to Krug for a bumper pass back to Pastrnak (16) whereby the league’s leading goal scorer one-timed a shot past Subban to give the Bruins a three-goal lead.
Krug (6) and Krejci (13) had the assists on Pastrnak’s power play goal at 16:08 of the third period and Boston led, 4-1.
At the final horn, the Bruins solidified a 4-1 victory with a 7-0-1 record when scoring first this season. Boston also improved to 8-0-0 when leading after two periods.
The B’s led in face-off win% 58-42 and the Golden Knights dominated just about every other statistical category after 60 minutes. Vegas led in shots on goal (38-37), blocked shots (8-7), giveaways (9-8) and hits (25-20).
Boston finished the night 1/7 on the power play, while the Golden Knights were powerless on the skater advantage, finishing 0/4 on Sunday night.
One consolation prize for the Vegas franchise is that through 100 regular season games in franchise history, the Golden Knights have the most wins among all expansion franchises in their first 100 regular season games with 58.
Sunday night was former Montreal Canadien and noted Bruins mood-killer, Max Pacioretty’s first matchup against the Bruins since being traded to Vegas, while it was also Danton Heinen and Sean Kuraly’s 100th career NHL games.
The Bruins carry a two-game winning streak heading onto the road for a four-game road trip beginning in Colorado (Nov. 14th) and swinging through Dallas (Nov. 16th), Arizona (Nov. 17th) and Detroit (Nov. 21st) before returning home for Black Friday’s matchup with the Pittsburgh Penguins.
It’s forecasting season, well, actually it’s the regular season and I’m just a little behind, but until I pointed that out, you didn’t know I was behind on my little passion project here, did you?
I know I wrote “[i]n the coming days I’ll reveal what teams I’ll be forecasting/tracking all season long, so stay tuned because it’s about to get messier than ever before and I’m up for the challenge,” in my Boston Bruins 2018-19 forecast, but life and the fact that I’m moving all my data into a new format has slowed my turnaround for the time being.
Nevertheless, my Vegas Golden Knights forecast for 2018-19 is here and let’s pretend the first week of the regular season hasn’t already happened or something.
Additionally, if you’re wondering what other teams I’m preparing to post (before we get too far into the first quarter of the season) they are the Carolina Hurricanes and Columbus Blue Jackets.
I always keep tabs on the Bruins every year because I grew up a Boston fan and I decided to track Vegas last season because there hadn’t been nearly as much hype surrounding an expansion team since Columbus and the Minnesota Wild in 2000. Additionally, I’ve previously tracked the Arizona Coyotes simply because they follow us on Twitter (and I’ll get back around to them hopefully before season’s end, if you’re interested).
But I’m adding Carolina and Columbus to my forecast portfolio this season because 1) the Hurricanes are supposed to be better than last season, plus they have some exciting youth in the lineup and 2) a lot of Blue Jackets fans are also fans of our brand around here, so shouts 5th Liners.
Please be patient on the timeline for when I’ll get my Hurricanes and Blue Jackets forecasts posted– it’ll be by the end of the month for sure.
Anyway, on with the Golden Knights, shall we?
Vegas is coming off of their inaugural season having finished 1st in the Pacific Division with 109 points and a 51-24-7 record under head coach Gerard Gallant. Not only did they finish at the top of their division in their first season, but they did so with over 100 points and a 50-plus win season.
Oh yeah and they played the Washington Capitals in the 2018 Stanley Cup Final.
Despite the loss in five games to Washington, the Golden Knights were and still are well ahead of owner Bill Foley’s “Cup in three [seasons]” masterplan– what with General Manager George McPhee‘s offseason additions of Paul Stastny and Max Pacioretty and everything.
This year, of course, the competition has gotten a lot tougher. There are expectations now when opponents play the Golden Knights.
Gallant and his Vegas lineup are going to have to get more creative than ever before in franchise history to avoid the hangover of a Stanley Cup Final appearance run and to avoid getting too predictable.
Things are different now. They’re no longer the new kids on the block. They’re the 2018 Western Conference champions and a team to beat.
As always, I’d like to remind you my degree is in communication– not math– therefore anything that looks wrong is either adjusted with a little gut-feeling and/or Microsoft Excel’s fault. My expertise resides in the written, spoken and nonverbal language of communicating– not numbers on a spreadsheet.
These forecasted stats are to be seen as an utopian perspective, as though nothing bad could happen this season at any point to any player– where every player at least lives up to their forecast and then some.
Some will pan out and some will fall flat. It’s a suggested outcome for a sport that’s played on ice in a highly unpredictable collective environment of action and sheer puck luck.
Vegas Golden Knights Forecast Through 0 Games (82 Games Remaining)
After a breakout 78-point season (43 goals, 35 assists) for William Karlsson, the Golden Knights number-one center is prime for a respectable 41-point season as part of the natural regression of the game– unless Karlsson is truly an outlier, like he was coming from Columbus to Vegas last season.
Meanwhile, Reilly Smith (19-27–46 expected totals) and Jonathan Marchessault (28-35–63 expected totals) bolster the Golden Knights first line with respectable performances of their own, while the point spread has really been shared with the second line.
Newcomers Paul Stastny (22-43–65 expected totals) and Max Pacioretty (33-30–63 expected totals) are set to become the key contributors to the fiery Vegas offense in their first season with the club.
The Golden Knights top-six core of forwards is deeper than last season, whereas the majority of their offense was reliant upon Marchessault, Karlsson and Smith. This year there’s more emphasis on Alex Tuch and Erik Haula inside the top-nine.
On defense, Gallant’s crew will have to do without Nate Schmidt for the first 20 games of the season while Schmidt serves a suspension for a performance enhancing drug.
Luckily, Brad Hunt, Colin Miller and Shea Theodore are prime for an uptick in time-on-ice and production, with Hunt and Miller expected to reach the 30-point plateau, while offseason addition, Nick Holden should see a pleasant rebound from his 17 points split between the Bruins and New York Rangers last season to a 25-point effort in 2018-19 with Vegas, provided he can remain in the top-six on the depth chart.
Upon Schmidt’s return, he should still have 4-23–27 totals from the blue line, which is not great like last season’s 5-31–36 totals, but not terrible for a top-four defender.
In goal, Marc-Andre Fleury is expected to return to Earth from his superhuman season last year (a 2.24 goals against average and .927 save percentage in 46 games) to a 2.49 GAA and .913 SV% in 2018-19. As the Golden Knights starter continues to get older, limiting his workload to keep him fresher for the postseason is the way to go.
Granted, Fleury’s playing time was limited last season due to a concussion, he still went on to have solid regular season numbers and an impeccable 2018 Stanley Cup Playoff run up until the Stanley Cup Final.
Meanwhile, Malcolm Subban‘s 2.68 GAA and .910 SV% in 22 games played look to be improved upon to a 2.65 GAA and .911 SV% in somewhere around 30 appearances as the backup netminder for Vegas.
As always, we’ll get more into the goalies once the team has played through a quarter of the season.
Vegas Golden Knights
51-24-7, 109 points, 1st in the Pacific Division
Lost in Stanley Cup Final to WSH, 4-1
Subtractions: D Philip Holm (signed, KHL), F James Neal (signed with CGY), F David Perron (signed with STL), F Teemu Pulkkinen (signed, KHL), D Luca Sbisa (signed with NYI), F Nick Suzuki (traded to MTL), F Tomas Tatar (traded to MTL), F Paul Thompson (signed with FLA)
Offseason Analysis: Only one team in the NHL’s more than a century of existence has ever won the Cup in their inaugural season. The 2017-18 Vegas Golden Knights almost joined the 1917-18 Toronto Arenas as the only teams to win the Cup in their inaugural season. Toronto beat the Pacific Coast Hockey Association’s (PCHA) Vancouver Millionaires 3-2 in a best of five-game series.
Vegas came up three wins short of winning it all in the modern-day best-of-seven game series against the Washington Capitals that the Stanley Cup Final has become.
The Golden Knights didn’t have an unfair advantage in the 2017 Expansion Draft. General Manager George McPhee worked the trade market to his advantage, primarily building the inaugural season’s core group of players through acquisitions.
Owner Bill Foley has touted the “Cup-in-three” mantra, meaning it’s his goal as an organization to win the Cup in their first three years of existence. Upon league expansion in 1967, it took the Philadelphia Flyers seven years to win their first Cup.
Foley wants to do it in half the time.
McPhee’s already gone to work on improving his roster from year one to year two. He’s added Paul Stastny via free agency and Max Pacioretty in a trade with the Montreal Canadiens.
Stastny, 32, joins the Golden Knights after spending last season with the St. Louis Blues and Winnipeg Jets. In 82 games split between the Blues and Jets, Stastny had 16-37–53 totals.
A deadline acquisition by Winnipeg, he had 13 points down the stretch in the remaining 19 games of the regular season, then had his best career performance in the postseason (15 points in 17 games) en route to the Western Conference Final against (his now current team) Vegas.
Despite Stastny’s playmaking style and ability to elevate the players around him in Patrik Laine and friends in Winnipeg, the Jets were no match for the hard-charging Golden Knights.
If you can’t beat them, join them.
The old saying rings true for Stastny, despite Winnipeg’s intentions on re-signing the veteran NHL center entering his 13th season in the league. He’ll slide in on Vegas’ second line behind William Karlsson and play alongside one of his best friends since they played together at the 2010 Winter Games, Max Pacioretty.
Yes, that’s right, Pacioretty is a Golden Knight– in case you’ve been under a rock since training camp.
At its surface, the price of the Pacioretty trade is one well spent for both teams. Vegas acquired Pacioretty in exchange for Tomas Tatar, prospect Nick Suzuki and a 2019 2nd round pick. That’s right about what you’d expect as a going rate for a top-six scorer– one current roster player, a prospect and a draft pick.
But for all that McPhee dealt to the Detroit Red Wings to add Tatar at the trade deadline last season, this Pacioretty deal carries a hefty trade-tree baggage, whereby a lot of assets were ultimately tossed in the pot for Pacioretty’s services.
At the very least, McPhee not only added a five-time 30-goal scorer, but he signed him to a four-year extension right away too. So if things don’t work out this season, the Golden Knights will remain in the hunt for the next few years.
On top of their solid core group of forwards, Vegas has a crafty defense that’s capable of doing more than turning heads like they did last season. There’s just one catch though– they’ll have to do it without Nate Schmidt for the first quarter of the regular season.
Schmidt will be serving a 20-game suspension for a performance enhancing drug, leaving Colin Miller and Shea Theodore to do the bulk of the work with Brayden McNabb and Deryk Engelland rounding out the rest of the top-four defenders.
Brad Hunt and Nick Holden, in the meantime, seek to use the first 20 games as an audition for the sixth defenseman role upon Schmidt’s return to the lineup.
Miller signed a four-year extension this summer and Theodore signed a seven-year deal worth $5.200 million per season. While seven years might be a bit more than the Golden Knights can chew if Theodore’s play heads south, at least he’s signed to a manageable $5.200 million cap hit– up to 50% of which can be retained in a trade.
With an immense top-nine group of forwards and questions surrounding who will step up on defense in Schmidt’s absence, head coach Gerard Gallant must adjust accordingly as he’s always done– on-the-fly and with the complete buy-in of the dressing room.
In goal, Marc-Andre Fleury— now signed through the 2021-22 season, thanks to a three-year extension this summer on top of the remaining year on his current contract– must find a way to continue his rejuvenated play in net. Last season’s 2.24 goals against average and .927 save percentage are more than likely unattainable in back-to-back seasons.
One thing working in Fleury’s favor is his reduced workload. In his second-straight season under 50 games played, Fleury appeared in 46 games last season after battling a concussion.
Malcolm Subban (2.68 GAA, .910 SV% in 22 games played last season) is still in line to become the next Golden Knights starting netminder in the post-Fleury era, but he undoubtedly must see an increase in playing time this season.
It’s not quite a 1A, 1B option for Vegas, but rather a precaution for Fleury and a means of keeping their starter fresh for what could be another long postseason run.
Unless any of the other Pacific Division teams have anything to say about it.
Offseason Grade: B+
McPhee bolstered his top-six forward group this offseason with two simple moves, while preserving the large-scale depth of the Golden Knights prospect pool. They didn’t land Erik Karlsson, John Tavares or Ilya Kovalchuk, but they did get Max Pacioretty.
And they still have quite an impressive amount of cap space to work with next offseason as the franchise continues to settle into existence.
Our offseason previews for all 31 National Hockey League teams continues with the Vegas Golden Knights and their outlook for the summer.
After shattering record after record set by previous expansion teams in their inaugural seasons, the Vegas Golden Knights compiled a 51-24-7 record and 109 points on the season in 2017-18. It was not only good enough for a playoff berth, but good enough for 1st place in the Pacific Division.
Head coach Gerard Gallant got the most out of General Manager George McPhee‘s roster, which was mostly built on trades and a mix of 2017 Expansion Draft claims, bringing the Golden Knights all the way to the Stanley Cup Final– in their first season. First postseason. First Western Conference championship. First everything.
Well, almost everything (except the Cup, which I hear Alex Ovechkin is, yep, still attached to it).
He’s also a pending-RFA this summer.
But Vegas doesn’t have to worry about whatever anyone else thinks of them. They’ve already smashed through all the walls that others thought would surely contain them back Earth, yet here they are– with almost $26.500 million to spend this summer.
2018 NHL Entry Draft
McPhee’s Golden Knights do not have a first round pick in the 2018 Draft currently as Vegas packaged a 2018 first round pick, 2019 second round pick and 2021 third round pick at the trade deadline in exchange for Tomas Tatar from the Detroit Red Wings.
Tatar signed a four-year extension with Detroit last offseason and is on Vegas’s books through 2020-21 at a whopping $5.300 million cap hit. I say whopping, because that’s the most expensive cap hit on the roster currently.
Pending free agents
With almost $26.500 million to work with this offseason and some big-time renewals to hand out, McPhee’s work isn’t cut out for him, but the Golden Knights look good heading into 2018-19.
Sure, maybe they won’t get back to the Stanley Cup Final in 2019, but…
Who am I kidding? They’ve defied all logic and we’ll never see an expansion team as good as this one in their inaugural season again. No, not because of any pending changes to future expansion drafts (I’m talking post-Seattle here).
Neal, 30, was an alternate captain this season and 25-19–44 totals in 71 games as a clutch goal-scorer and early face of the franchise. He’ll get top-dollar on the market if he doesn’t re-sign and is the only priority pending-UFA for McPhee to consider bringing back.
Grabovski, 34, is likely to never play in the NHL again, since missing the entire 2016-17 season with ongoing concussion issues.
Perron, 30, was another alternate captain on Vegas’s squad and had 16-50–66 totals in 70 games. His point production was up 20 from last season to this season and he could have some staying power as a playmaker or he could test the waters.
McPhee isn’t rushing to re-sign Neal or Perron because the future’s looking pretty bright with the Golden Knights core, plus the tremendous cap space available that could make Vegas a dark horse for John Tavares, Ilya Kovalchuk or a landing spot for an Erik Karlsson trade.
Reaves, 31, was acquired in a three-team trade with the Pittsburgh Penguins and Ottawa Senators, fitting in on Vegas’s fourth line as a tough guy that scored two important goals in the postseason. He’s a cheap bottom-six forward if McPhee likes grit, otherwise there’ll be other opportunities for Reaves to seek.
Karlsson, 25, is likely to receive the biggest salary on the roster, thanks, in part to his forthcoming raise, but mostly due to his scoring ability. He had 43-35–78 totals in 82 games with the Golden Knights this season and 7-8–15 totals in 20 postseason games.
Nosek, 25, eased into a comfortable seven goals and eight assists (15 points) in 67 games this season, then added another four goals and two assists (six points) in 17 playoff games. By comparison, he’s no William Karlsson, but he is a dependable top-9 forward in his prime.
Likewise, Carrier, 23, is still young and coming into his own as a bottom-six forward that could see more time or about the same number of games this season (37) as next season. For depth purposes alone, Carrier matters a lot to the team.
28-year-old pending-UFA, Luca Sbisa, played a part in 30 regular season games and could remain as a depth defender if he stays, while 33-year-old pending-UFA, Clayton Stoner, is without a doubt searching for a new place to play.
If re-signing Karlsson and his other pending-RFAs is a pretty big deal for McPhee this summer, then so is locking up Colin Miller, 25, and Shea Theodore, 22, to viable contracts that won’t cost an arm and a leg, assuming the top-6 defenders continue to develop and capitalize on career seasons.
In goal, Marc-Andre Fleury, 33, has one-year left on his current deal at $5.750 million and will be looking to sign what might be his last NHL contract next summer, while backup goaltender, Malcolm Subban, 24, is also entering the final year of his $650,000 per year deal.
Subban isn’t likely to overtake Fleury in the next year or two, so both goalies should be back, but let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves, okay? It’s only 2018, not 2019.
Retained salary: Derick Brassard ($2.000 million) through 2018-19.
Other pending free agents throughout the organization include:
For the first time in franchise history (43 years), the Washington Capitals have a series lead in the Stanley Cup Final— as a result of winning their first Stanley Cup Final victory on home ice in franchise history as well— Saturday night at Capital One Arena.
The Capitals defeated the Vegas Golden Knights, 3-1, and take a 2-1 series lead heading into Game 4.
Braden Holtby stopped 21 out of 22 shots faced for a .955 save percentage en route to the win, while Vegas goaltender, Marc-Andre Fleury replicated his Game 2 stats— 23 saves on 26 shots against for an .855 SV%— in the loss.
Fans rocking the red at Capital One Arena erupted in sheer joy only to be dismayed seconds later as the ref waved off what was thought to be a goal for the home team on account of goaltender interference. Instead of grabbing an early lead, Devante Smith-Pelly was heading to the penalty box at 5:04 of the first period.
Luckily for Washington, the Golden Knights could not convert on the ensuing power play.
The Caps couldn’t muster anything on the power play and Vegas responded well to the successful penalty kill with Jon Marchessault ringing the far right post shortly after Smith reentered the playing surface.
After one period of play, the game was still tied, 0-0, with Washington leading in shots on goal, 7-5. Washington also led in blocked shots (15-5), hits (17-12), giveaways (7-6) and faceoff win percentage (72-28), while the Golden Knights led in takeaways (5-4) after 20 minutes of play. Both teams were 0/1 on the power play entering the first intermission.
While diving for a loose puck in a flurry of activity, Alex Ovechkin (14) buried the game’s first goal on the fifth attempt in Washington’s attacking zone possession, 70 seconds into the second period. John Carlson (14) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (15) notched the assists on the goal that made it 1-0 Capitals after Fleury made a couple of great desperation saves.
Ovechkin tied John Druce for the most goals (14) in a single postseason in Capitals franchise history. Druce set the franchise record in Washington’s 1990 run to the Eastern Conference Final.
Erik Haula tripped up Kempny at 9:58 of the second period and was sent to the sin bin, giving Washington their second chance on the power play Saturday night. Despite Carlson rocketing a slap shot that was tipped by T.J. Oshie, the right post once again came up big and preserved a one-goal deficit for the Golden Knights as the Capitals failed to score on the power play.
But in the vulnerable minute after the special teams opportunity, Washington capitalized on Vegas’s misfortune.
Vegas had amassed a couple quality chances that were turned aside by Holtby and his defenders. Then the puck went the other way down the ice thanks to Oshie, Jay Beagle and Kuznetsov.
Bursting with speed through the transition, Kuznetsov (12) sniped a shot past Fleury on the odd man breakout giving Washington a 2-0 lead at 12:50 of the second period. Beagle (5) and Oshie (11) were credited with the assists on the eventual de facto game winning goal.
Smith-Pelly was guilty of tripping Shea Theodore late in the second period. About a minute later, with Theodore well out of position, Fleury left his crease to do just about anything to stop Matt Niskanen from yielding a scoring chance. Left with no other option, the Golden Knights goalie tripped the Washington blueliner and Theodore was sent to the sin bin to serve Fleury’s minor infraction at 19:38.
Through 40 minutes of play the Capitals led, 2-0. Washington dominated in shots on goal (21-13), blocked shots (19-7), hits (29-24), takeaways (9-8), giveaways (13-6) and faceoff win percentage (67-33) after two periods. Both teams were 0/2 on the power play entering the second intermission and Vegas’s strong first line offense was nowhere to be found.
Holtby mishandled the puck early in the third period, inadvertently sending the puck off of Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, right on to the stick blade of Tomas Nosek. Nosek (4) pocketed a goal on a mostly empty net as the Capitals netminder dove to try to make a last ditch effort save.
Vegas cut the lead in half, 2-1, thanks to Nosek’s goal. Bellemare (3) earned the only assist on the shutout breaker at 3:29 of the third.
There’s just one problem— Engelland never tripped Backstrom. Backstrom’s teammate, Chandler Stephenson, had gotten his stick caught up in the Capitals forward’s legs and video replay confirms it. The refs had made an error that nearly cost the Golden Knights, but thankfully for Vegas, neither team had any hot hands on the power play.
Over six minutes later, Smith-Pelly (5) redeemed himself for his early goaltending interference penalty that cost his team of a surefire goal. The prominent clutch depth scoring forward one-timed a shot past Fleury on a pass from Beagle at 13:53 of the third period, securing a two-goal lead.
Beagle (6) had the only assist on the goal and Washington led, 3-1.
Time continued to tick and the Golden Knights couldn’t generate the necessary offense to overcome the trap.
Gerard Gallant pulled his goaltender with 2:38 remaining in regulation. Vegas used their timeout with 39.5 seconds left in the game. Washington couldn’t secure an empty net goal, but they did secure the 2-1 series lead at the final horn.
The Capitals had won, 3-1, leading in shots on goal (26-22), blocked shots (26-9), hits (38-31), giveaways (21-7) and faceoff win percentage (63-37) after 60 minutes. Vegas finished the night 0/2 on the power play, while Washington went 0/4.
Washington can take a commanding 3-1 series lead with another win at home in Game 4 on Monday. Despite their 5-5 record at home this postseason, the Caps improved to 11-4 overall when scoring first.
Puck drop in Game 4 is set for a little after 8:00 p.m. ET Monday night on NBC, CBC, SN or TVAS (depending on your location/viewing preferences).
Depth scoring proved to matter a lot more than the best goaltending this postseason as the Vegas Golden Knights defeated the Washington Capitals 6-4 in Game 1 of the 2018 Stanley Cup Final Monday night.
Vegas goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury made 24 saves on 28 shots faced for an .857 save percentage in the win, while Washington netminder Braden Holtby made 28 saves on 33 shots against for an .848 SV% in 58:12 time on ice.
T-Mobile Arena was the loudest it has ever been prior to puck drop in Game 1 of the 2018 Stanley Cup Final. Then again, T-Mobile Arena is only in its first season of NHL hockey and well, you get the point— Vegas was ready for its Stanley Cup Final debut.
Almost six minutes into the action, after swapping chance for chance, Andre Burakovsky boarded Golden Knights forward, Cody Eakin, and was sent to the penalty box with a minor infraction for boarding.
Vegas made sure to capitalize on the ensuing power play.
Colin Miller (3) received a pass back to the point from Erik Haula and flung a slap shot on goal, beating Holtby on the short side as the Capitals netminder was partially screened by his own defender, John Carlson. The Golden Knights led, 1-0 thanks to Miller’s power play goal.
Haula (5) recorded the only assist on the goal at 7:15 of the first period.
Past the halfway mark of the opening period, Washington only had one shot on goal, but that was about to change.
Michal Kempny tossed the puck on goal where Brett Connolly (5) was standing in the low slot, ready to deflect and successfully redirected the rubber biscuit past Fleury, tying the game, 1-1, at 14:41 of the first period. Kempny (2) and Burakovsky (1) had the assists.
A mere 42 seconds later, the Caps struck again as Nicklas Backstrom (5) pocketed a redirected pass over the leg pad of Vegas’s netminder to give Washington their first lead of the night, 2-1. T.J. Oshie (9) and Jakub Vrana (5) notched the assists on the goal at 15:23.
For the first time this postseason, the Golden Knights trailed on home ice in regulation. It only lasted for about three minutes.
Reilly Smith flew in from the bench and shot one wide of the goal, sending the puck on a crazy carom off the boards where William Karlsson (7) pounced and scored as Holtby was scrambling to go side-to-side in net. Smith (15) and Deryk Engelland (1) had the assists on Karlsson’s goal at 18:19 of the first period and Vegas tied the game, 2-2.
After 20 minutes of hockey, the Golden Knights and Capitals were deadlocked, 2-2, with Vegas holding a slight advantage in shots on goal, 11-10. The home team also led in takeaways (7-2) after one period, while Washington dominated in blocked shots (7-2), hits (19-11) and faceoff win percentage (52-48). Giveaways were even, 3-3, after the first period and Washington had yet to see time on the power play.
Meanwhile, Vegas was 1/1 on the man advantage entering the first intermission.
Early in the second period Smith (3) pounced on a juicy rebound allowed by Holtby on a shot from Engelland, giving the Golden Knights a 3-2 lead. Engelland (2) and Jon Marchessault (11) were credited with the assists on Smith’s goal at 3:21 of the second period.
Minutes later Oshie worked a highlight reel pass over to Carlson (4) who promptly wired one into the open twine behind Fleury as the Vegas netminder had other things in mind. Oshie (10) and Backstrom (13) recorded the primary and secondary assists on Carlson’s goal at 8:29 of the second period, tying the game, 3-3.
The Golden Knights followed up with a bench minor for too many men on the ice about five minutes later, deftly handing Washington a full momentum swing in the action that could have led to a dismal outcome had the home team allowed a power play goal against.
Birthday boy David Perron served the minor in the box at 13:55 and the Capitals did not convert on the advantage.
Through 40 minutes of play the score was tied, 3-3, with the Golden Knights maintaining an advantage in shots on goal (25-18), takeaways (15-5) and giveaways (7-6). Meanwhile the Capitals led in blocked shots (11-6) and hits (28-19). Washington was 0/1 on the power play and Vegas was 1/1 after two periods.
Washington’s Tom Wilson (4) opened third period scoring with a redirection that squibbed through Fleury and eventually was knocked in by the Golden Knights goaltender, giving the Capitals a 4-3. Alex Ovechkin (11) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (14) recorded their first career Stanley Cup Final points 69 seconds into the period with the assists on Wilson’s goal.
Kuznetsov extended his point streak (6-10—16 totals) to 11 games as a result of the assist.
Not to be outdone by the pesky Capitals forward, Ryan Reaves (2) recorded his first career Stanley Cup Final goal— unassisted— on a tremendous follow up after Holtby gave up another costly rebound. Reaves’s goal tied the game, 4-4, at 2:41 of the period.
Shortly thereafter, Wilson took a run at Marchessault while the puck was miles away (slight exaggeration added for emphasis), leaving Marchessault slow to get back on his own feet and the refs with the difficult decision to converse and decide that, after all, there should have been a penalty.
While Wilson went to the box for— blatant— interference, Perron equalized the manpower on the ice with his own cross checking penalty against Ovechkin, yielding 4-on-4 action at 5:53 of the third.
Theodore used the opportunity to skate past Smith-Pelly and send a pass cross-ice to Tomas Nosek (2) for the one-timer on one knee that rocketed past Holtby. The Golden Knights led 5-4 thanks to Nosek’s goal and Theodore’s (6) assist at 9:44.
For the first time in Stanley Cup Final history, there were four lead changes in one game. This time Vegas never looked back.
With 1:52 remaining in regulation, Barry Trotz pulled his goaltender for an extra attacker. Gerard Gallant’s Golden Knights would not be outplayed, as Washington botched an open net one-timer scoring opportunity with about 45 seconds left on the clock.
Soon enough, Perron cleared the puck off glass and with just enough mustard on it to not be called for icing. Nosek (3) chased the loose biscuit down and finished things off with an empty net goal at 19:57 of the third period. Perron notched the assist (8) and the Golden Knights secured the 6-4 victory in Game 1.
Time expired and Vegas finished the night with a 1-0 series lead— three wins away as an expansion franchise from winning the Cup in their first season. The Golden Knights ended the night leading in shots on goal (34-28), giveaways (9-7) and faceoff win percentage (52-48). Washington ended the night leading in all things related to the physical department (blocked shots, 18-17, and hits, 38-25).
Vegas looks to take a commanding 2-0 series lead in the 2018 Stanley Cup Final Wednesday night on home ice. Viewers can tune in at 8:00 p.m. ET on NBCSN, CBC, SN or TVAS.
The Vegas Golden Knights had 500-1 odds of winning the Stanley Cup in their inaugural season back in October. Now, they’re just four wins away.
Let’s clarify a few things here:
1. The team has a lot of leadership.
And that’s not doing enough justice to give their head coach, Gerard Gallant, some credit for the way the team’s carried themselves.
2. The team has a lot of playoff experience.
Vegas general manager George McPhee didn’t look for just a bunch of nobody’s. This is Fleury’s fifth appearance in the Stanley Cup Final– and third straight.
Entering this postseason, only the following Golden Knights regulars had zero games of playoff experience– Ryan Carpenter, William Carrier, Tomas Nosek, Malcolm Subban (their backup goaltender, not likely to see any playing time with Fleury existing) and Alex Tuch.
Fleury (115 games), Neal (80), Perron (42), Ryan Reaves (36), Engelland (28), Erik Haula (24), Nate Schmidt (21), Luca Sbisa (20) and Shea Thoedore (20) all had at least 20 games of playoff experience coming into the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Reaves, of course, was acquired prior to the trade deadline. Primarily for his scoring prowess in an elimination game, obviously. Wait.
3. The 2017 Expansion Draft was not rigged.
Nobody told Florida Panthers general manager Dale Tallon he had to a) leave Marchessault exposed and b) trade Reilly Smith to Vegas to ensure they wouldn’t select someone other than Marchessault at the Expansion Draft.
Let’s reword that a bit.
Marchessault was left exposed and the Panthers did not specify that he was untouchable as part of the Smith deal. Florida encouraged Vegas to take on Smith’s $5.000 million cap hit through the 2021-22 season after one down year with the Panthers.
The Golden Knights were the scapegoat for salary cap mismanagement by other NHL teams and everyone thought Vegas wouldn’t turn out to be this way.
Fleury was assured of being selected by McPhee and Co. thanks to Pittsburgh’s tight cap after winning back-to-back Cups along with their goaltending situation in which Matt Murray had rightfully taken the starting goaltender role. The Penguins even sent a 2018 second round pick in the trade to persuade Vegas to select Fleury in the Expansion Draft instead of a guy like Brian Dumoulin.
A happy accident– or more accurately, superb scouting and foresight. That same scouting led to nailing more than one needle in a haystack.
Alex Tuch? Traded by the Minnesota Wild to Vegas as part of an agreement that McPhee would select Erik Haula.
The Anaheim Ducks traded Theodore to Vegas so the Golden Knights would take Clayton Stoner and not one of Anaheim’s young core players of the future.
Finally, the talent pool is better than ever before. The Golden Knights were bound to stockpile a few good players as a result of stacked rosters (in theory) across the 30 other NHL clubs.
McPhee also worked the phones and made more than a few trades and depth signings in free agency.
Maxime Lagace and Oscar Dansk were both free agent signings that held things over for Vegas in the net while Fleury and Subban were injured for almost the first quarter of the regular season. Dansk went down with an injury himself four games into the Golden Knights third-string goaltending emergency relief plan.
When the Golden Knights turned to Dylan Ferguson in goal it was only possible because of McPhee’s deal with the Dallas Stars in which defender Marc Methot, who was claimed at the Expansion Draft by Vegas, was flipped to Dallas for Ferguson and a 2020 second round pick.
Not every selection made by Vegas in the 2017 Expansion Draft suited up for the Golden Knights.
Trevor van Riemsdyk was packaged with a 2018 seventh round pick to the Carolina Hurricanes for Pittsburgh’s 2017 second round pick (Jake Leschyshyn).
David Schlemko was flipped to the Montreal Canadiens for a 2019 fifth round pick.
Alexei Emelin was sent to the Nashville Predators for a 2018 third round pick.
Despite appearing in preseason action for Vegas, last season’s backup goaltender with the Colorado Avalanche– turned AHL backup goaltender with the Toronto Marlies this season– Calvin Pickard was dealt to the Maple Leafs for a 2018 sixth round pick and Tobias Lindberg.
Pickard’s trade was spurned by McPhee finding a better backup goaltender at no cost to the organization– Malcolm Subban.
Subban was claimed off waivers from Boston after the Bruins waited a few days after waivers went into effect to decide on sending him to Providence.
Ryan Carpenter? Another claim off waivers– midseason— from the San Jose Sharks.
It’s a professional league. It’s a free market. Something, something, stop complaining because your team has a history of letting you down. The Golden Knights will let their fans down in time, just like every other professional sports franchise in the history of all major professional North American sports.
But for now, why not enjoy the ride?
They swept a 1967 expansion team in the First Round, they defeated a 1990s expansion team in the Second Round and now they’ve beaten a late-1990s expansion franchise that relocated to Winnipeg in 2011 for the Western Conference championship.
There’s never going to be another run quite like this and if it ends in a Stanley Cup championship maybe we should all meet in Vegas for the afterparty. Celebrate the sport.
The Campbell Bowl is the possession of the Vegas Golden Knights after they beat the Winnipeg Jets 2-1 at Bell MTS Place in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals.
Winnipeg did all it could to win this game and prolong its postseason: the Jets matched Vegas in shots on goal (32 apiece), earned four power plays to the Knights’ two and G Connor Hellebuyck saved 30-for-32 shots faced (.938 save percentage).
However, G Marc-Andre Fleury was none too interested in starting a summer without the Stanley Cup for the first time since 2015. Fleury saved 31-of-32 shots faced (.969 save percentage). He refused to yield to even one of the Jets’ power plays, making miraculous save after miraculous save.
Pair Fleury’s performance with First Star of the Game RW Alex Tuch‘s (F Ryan Carpenter) wrist shot only 5:11 into the game, and the Jets were facing an uphill battle that was made even more steep by the fact that Third Star D Josh Morrissey‘s giveaway was what directly led to the tally.
Morrissey didn’t successfully corral Hellebuyck’s pass along the boards, leading to Carpenter knocking the puck off his stick to Tuch in the high slot, which he proceeded to squeeze between the netminder’s right arm and the post.
The only flaw in Fleury’s game struck 12:03 later when Morrissey (F Bryan Little) made amends for his giveaway to score off a face-off. Won by Little at the dot to Fleury’s right, Morrissey ended up with the puck above the face-off circles and one-timed a white-hot slap shot over the goalie’s glove.
Though this goal can’t be blamed on Hellebuyck, that’s not to say that Reaves was truly intending to score on this play. Sbisa fired an elevated initial wrister from the point that likely would have been either blocked by a Jet or saved by Hellebuyck, but Reaves intercepted that attempt and deflected it just under the bar over the goalie’s right shoulder.
If Reaves were only a foot or two closer to the crease, his shot surely would have flown over the crossbar, but the trade acquisition was in the right place at the right time to secure his and his club’s first-ever Stanley Cup Finals appearance.
In the third period, the Golden Knights clamped down on the talented Jets offense to limit them to only eight shots on goal. D Colin Miller converted one takeaway, while eight different Knights either blocked a Winnipeg third period shot or threw a body check.
Winnipeg also was its own worst enemy by aiming five third period shots to the wrong side of the iron. In particular, RW Patrik Laine was responsible for sending two of those shots wide or over the net.
The Golden Knights await the victor of the Eastern Conference Finals, which the Tampa Bay Lightning currently lead 3-2. Should the Bolts hold on to clinch the Prince of Wales Trophy, Vegas will travel to Florida for Games 1 and 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals. However, if the Washington Capitals can win two-straight games, they will travel to Vegas for the first games of the series.
Game 6 of the Eastern Finals from Capital One Arena will take place Monday, May 21 at 8 p.m. Eastern. Fans interested in seeing who the Knights will square off against should tune their televisions to CBC, NBCSN, SN1 or TVAS.