Down the Frozen River

Tag: Stan Bowman

  • Chicago Blackhawks 2021-22 Season Preview

    Chicago Blackhawks 2021-22 Season Preview

    2020-21 record 24-25-7, 55 points

    6th in the Discover NHL Central Division

    Missed the postseason for the first time since 2020

    Additions: F Tyler Johnson (acquired from TBL), F Jujhar Khaira, D Caleb Jones (acquired from EDM), D Seth Jones (acquired from CBJ), D Jake McCabe, G Marc-Andre Fleury (acquired from VGK)

    Subtractions: F Josh Dickinson (signed with Toledo Walleye, ECHL), F Mikael Hakkarainen (traded to VGK), F Vinnie Hinostroza (signed with BUF), F David Kampf (signed with TOR), F John Quenneville (expansion, SEA), F Tim Soderlund (traded to EDM), F Pius Suter (signed with DET), D Adam Boqvist (traded to CBJ), D Duncan Keith (traded to EDM), D Anton Lindholm (KHL), D Brent Seabrook (contract traded to TBL), D Nikita Zadorov (traded to CGY), G Matt Tomkins (SHL)

    Still Unsigned: F Brandon Pirri, F Zack Smith

    Re-signed: F Mackenzie Entwistle, F Adam Gaudette, F Brandon Hagel, F Mike Hardman, F Alex Nylander

    Offseason Analysis: Stan Bowman has been busy this offseason, though he shouldn’t be able to carry out his duties as General Manager like normal these days and if you’ve been under a rock, TSN‘s Rick Westhead has lots more, and more, and so much more— in addition to another lawsuit against Chicago that’s been resolved over the use of facial recognition software at United Center.

    There’s been a few changes to the roster as Chicago moves on from their near-dynasty (remember, the definition of a dynasty is three championships in a four-year span– Chicago won three Stanley Cups in five years, 2010, 2013 and 2015).

    Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook (his contract, anyway) both departed the organization this offseason– first with Keith and Tim Soderlund having been traded to the Edmonton Oilers for defender, Caleb Jones, and a conditional 2022 3rd round pick on July 12th, then Seabrook later that month.

    If the Oilers make the 2022 Stanley Cup Final and Keith is in the top-four in postseason time on ice on the roster during the first three rounds, then Edmonton will give Chicago a 2022 2nd round pick instead of a 2022 3rd round pick.

    Keith broke into the NHL with Chicago in the 2005-06 season and amassed 105-520–625 totals in 1,192 games since then. Now at 38-years-old, he’s about to embark on a new season with a new team– one that’s closer to home, as he’s desired to be nearer to family after spending most of the last 12 months isolated in accordance with NHL COVID-19 protocols– with two years remaining on his contract.

    Caleb Jones, meanwhile, joins Chicago as the younger brother of Seth Jones, who was acquired ahead of the 2021 NHL Draft in a trade with the Columbus Blue Jackets on July 23.

    Seth was acquired with a 2021 1st round pick (originally belonging to the Tampa Bay Lightning– 32nd overall, Nolan Allan) and a 2022 6th round pick in exchange for young defender, Adam Boqvist, a 2021 1st round pick (12th overall, Cole Sillinger) and a 2021 2nd round pick (later traded by Columbus to the Carolina Hurricanes– 44th overall, Aleksi Heimosalmi).

    The older Jones signed an eight-year extension through the 2029-30 season worth $9.500 million per season, despite his decline since setting career-highs in goals (16), assists (41) and points (57) in 78 games with Columbus in 2017-18.

    Since then, Seth’s production dropped to 46 points (nine goals, 37 assists) in 75 games in 2018-19, then 30 points (six goals, 24 assists) in an injury filled 56-game 2019-20 season and 5-23–28 totals in 56 games last season.

    Caleb, meanwhile, had four assists in 33 games with Edmonton last season and is signed through 2022-23.

    On July 27th, Chicago acquired goaltender, Marc-Andre Fleury, from the Vegas Golden Knights for forward, Mikael Hakkarainen.

    At 36-years-old and not wanting to be traded from the Golden Knights, Fleury contemplated retiring, despite having one season left on his current contract with a $7.000 million cap hit.

    After consulting with Chicago about the organization’s future plans and city life, Fleury is “refreshed and ready” to lead from the crease and mentor Kevin Lankinen, while Lankinen, Colin Delia and Malcolm Subban compete for the backup job.

    Last season, Fleury went 26-10-0 in 36 games– recording a 1.98 goals-against average, a .928 save percentage and six shutouts in that span, en route to winning his first Vezina Trophy in his 17-year NHL career.

    Since breaking into the league in the 2003-04 season with the Pittsburgh Penguins after he was the 1st overall pick for Pittsburgh in the 2003 NHL Draft, he’s amassed a 492-276-2-80 record in 883 career NHL games for the Penguins and Golden Knights.

    Though he won the Vezina last season and posted a 2.04 goals-against average in 16 playoff games in 2021, Fleury had a goals-against average of 2.50 or more in three out of the four prior seasons, so it’d be wise to balance his workload with whoever wins the backup job.

    As Chicago is hungry for one last run at the Cup with Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews in a Chicago uniform, you can’t risk running Fleury into the ground– especially if this is his last season.

    Chicago also added Tyler Johnson and a 2023 2nd round pick in a separate trade with the Tampa Bay Lightning on July 27th in exchange for the Seabrook’s contract.

    Seabrook’s career-ending hip injury will help Tampa utilize cap relief via the same long-term injured reserve clause in the collective bargaining agreement that drove some fans around the NHL nuts while the Lightning stockpiled their weapons for their back-to-back Cup championship run.

    Meanwhile, Johnson carries a $5.000 million cap hit through 2023-24, and his 8-14–22 totals in 55 games as a 31-year-old last season into Chicago’s middle-six meat of the lineup.

    A day later, Chicago traded the rights to Nikita Zadorov to the Calgary Flames for a 2022 3rd round pick after Zadorov spent one season in Chicago and had 1-7–8 totals in 55 games after reaching double-digit points in four out of five prior seasons with the Colorado Avalanche.

    Zadorov was rewarded with a one-year deal in Calgary worth $3.750 million, which was $3.750 million more than Chicago wanted to spend on a primarily physical game– and physical game only– defender.

    Meanwhile, Chicago’s forward, Andrew Shaw, is heading to the long-term injured reserve for salary cap relief of about $3.900 million in the final year of his contract– forced into retirement due to multiple concussions sustained over his 10-year career.

    Offseason Grade: C

    Johnson and Fleury bring name brand recognition to a lineup that’s remained mostly unchanged from last season to this season– even with the addition of Seth Jones to the defense in light of Keith’s planned departure.

    Pius Suter put up 14-13–27 totals in 55 games in an impressive NHL debut for a 25-year-old last season and Chicago chose not to tender him a qualifying offer– allowing Suter to walk and sign with the Detroit Red Wings for a little more than half of what Chicago is paying Johnson for about the same results.

    Chicago took a risk this offseason as they’re desperate for Toews and Kane to remain in good faith with the organization– with Toews returning to the lineup after missing all of the 2020-21 season due to a bout with a chronic illness– as both players could leave the organization for greener pastures after the 2022-23 season when their matching eight-year contracts with $10.500 million cap hits expire.

    The fact of the matter is that Chicago took their foot off the gas after winning it all for the third time in five years in 2015.

    There’s no clear “goaltender of the future” and the prospect pool is being restocked after years of sustained success depleted it.

    After the Nashville Predators swept Chicago in the 2017 First Round, Bowman could’ve made sweeping moves to keep Chicago competitive– a la the Pittsburgh Penguins for the greater part of the last 15 years– but he didn’t having over-relied on what was familiar, like most NHL GMs.

    Then again, inaction when the situation necessitates action seems like it’s on brand for Bowman and the organization.

  • Analysis: Connolly move opens door for more

    The Florida Panthers dealt forward, Brett Connolly, defender Riley Stillman, the signing rights to forward, Henrik Borgström, and a 2021 7th round pick to the Chicago Blackhawks on Thursday in exchange for forward, Lucas Wallmark, and defender, Lucas Carlsson.

    Thursday’s move comes as the Panthers are in the midst of their best season in about 25 years and prime for further addition by next Monday’s 3 p.m. ET trade deadline.

    From Taylor Hall speculations to strengthening their blue line due to the loss of Aaron Ekblad to injury, Florida freed up cap space by moving Connolly’s $2.425 million cap hit off the books as a result of moving him to the taxi squad prior to the trade with Chicago.

    Nothing is imminent, but Panthers General Manager, Bill Zito, has ushered in an era of proactivity that we’re all just waiting for the other shoe to drop.

    Meanwhile, the Panthers reunited with a familiar face in Wallmark as he was previously acquired by the team in a transaction with the Carolina Hurricanes as part of a larger package in exchange for Vincent Trocheck on Feb. 24, 2020.

    The Blackhawks, meanwhile, bolstered their bottom six depth and taxi squad members as a result of the deal in the wake of their surprise contention for a playoff berth this season.

    Most experts agreed entering 2020-21, that this season would be one in which Chicago General Manager, Stan Bowman, would have to navigate an impending rebuild, but that might not be the case as the Blackhawks have had pleasant surprises in production and NHL readiness in Pius Suter, Kevin Lankinen and others.

    Connolly, 28, had four points (two goals, two assists) in 21 games with the Panthers this season at the time of the trade on Thursday. He has 100-92–192 totals in 517 career NHL games for the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, Washington Capitals and Panthers since being drafted in the 1st round (6th overall) by Tampa in 2010, and making his league debut with the Lightning in 2011-12.

    A native of Campbell River, British Columbia, the 6-foot-3, 198-pound right wing carries a $2.425 million cap hit this season, as well as a $2.375 million cap hit from 2021-22 through 2022-23, when he will then be an unrestricted free agent.

    While Connolly is on pace for three goals this season, he experienced a career resurgence with Washington, tallying career-highs in goals (22), assists (24) and points (46) in 81 games with the Capitals in 2018-19.

    He recorded 19-14–33 totals in 69 games with Florida last season prior to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic shortening the regular season.

    In 42 career Stanley Cup Playoff games, Connolly has 8-3–11 totals, including nine points (six goals, three assists) in 24 games with the Caps en route to their 2018 Stanley Cup championship.

    Stillman, 23, had no points and 14 penalty minutes in eight games this season with Florida to go along with his plus-2 rating.

    The 6-foot-1, 196-pound native of Peterborough, Ontario and son of two-time Stanley Cup winner, Cory Stillman, has five assists in 43 career NHL games since making his league debut with the Panthers in the 2018-19 season after being drafted by Florida in the 4th round (114th overall) in 2016.

    Stillman has appeared in three career postseason games, has no points and was a minus-3 in Florida’s 2020 Stanley Cup Qualifier series loss to the New York Islanders.

    As he went from the taxi squad on the Panthers to the taxi squad on the Blackhawks, he currently does not count against Chicago’s salary cap and is a pending-restricted free agent at season’s end.

    Borgström, 23, has 11-8–19 totals in 28 games with HIFK in Liiga over in Finland this season. The 6-foot-3, 199-pound Helsinki native was originally drafted by the Panthers in the 1st round (23rd overall) in 2016, and made his league debut in the 2017-18 season.

    In 58 career NHL games with Florida, Borgström had 9-10–19 totals and has yet to appear in a Stanley Cup Playoff game.

    Wallmark, 25, had three assists in 16 games with Chicago this season at the time of the trade on Thursday and has 23-36–59 totals in 183 career NHL games with the Carolina Hurricanes, Panthers and Blackhawks.

    Originally drafted by Carolina in the 4th round (97th overall) in 2014, the 6-foot, 178-pound native of Umea, Sweden is in his second stint with the Panthers organization.

    He had a career-high 12 goals with the Hurricanes and Panthers in 67 games last season and set career-highs in assists (18) and points (28) in 81 games with Carolina in 2018-19, recording five points (one goal, four assists) in 15 playoff games with the Hurricanes en route to their 2019 Eastern Conference Final appearance.

    He had no points in two postseason games with Florida in 2020 and is a pending-restricted free agent at season’s end with a $950,000 cap hit if he weren’t already on the taxi squad.

    Carlsson, 23, had one assist in 12 games with Chicago this season at the time of the trade and has two points (two assists) in 18 career games since making his league debut last season with the Blackhawks.

    A native of Gävle, Sweden, the 6-foot, 189-pound defender was originally drafted by Chicago in the 4th round (110th overall) of the 2016 NHL Draft and has appeared in one career postseason game in 2020.

    Carlsson had 5-21–26 totals with the Rockford IceHogs (AHL) in 48 games last season, as well as three points (one goal, two assists) in seven games with Rockford in 2020-21.

    Though he technically carries a $792,500 cap hit, the Blackhawks won’t be charged anything against their cap as long as he is on the taxi squad. He is a pending-restricted free agent at season’s end.

  • DTFR Podcast #174- Coaching Conundrums

    DTFR Podcast #174- Coaching Conundrums

    Some firsts, 100s, broken fingers and pointing fingers– who should be concerned about their job security behind the bench? Plus Cap’n and Pete are back.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

  • DTFR Podcast #171- 2019-20 Season Preview: Central Division

    DTFR Podcast #171- 2019-20 Season Preview: Central Division

    All of the (good) RFAs have been re-signed, the Carolina Hurricanes keep making moves, 2020 Winter Classic logos have been revealed and DTFR’s season previews conclude with the Central Division.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

  • Chicago Blackhawks 2019-20 Season Preview

    Chicago Blackhawks

    36-34-12, 84 points, 6th in the Central Division

    Missed the postseason for the second straight year

    Additions: F Ryan Carpenter, F Alexander Nylander (acquired from BUF), F John Quenneville (acquired from NJD), F Aleksi Saarela (acquired from CAR), F Andrew Shaw (acquired from MTL), F Zack Smith (acquired from OTT), D Calvin de Haan (acquired from CAR), D Philip Holm, D Olli Maatta (acquired from PIT), G Robin Lehner

    Subtractions: F Artem Anisimov (traded to OTT), F Victor Ejdsell (SHL), F John Hayden (traded to NJD), F Peter Holland (KHL), F Dominik Kahun (traded to PIT), F Marcus Kruger (NLA), F Chris Kunitz (retired), F Luke Johnson (signed with MIN), F Anthony Louis (signed with Charlotte, AHL), F Andreas Martinsen (signed with ANA), F Jordan Schroeder (KHL), F Tyler Sikura (signed with Rockford, AHL), F Spencer Watson (signed with Indy, ECHL), D Brandon Davidson (signed with CGY), D Gustav Forsling (traded to CAR), D Blake Hillman (signed with Toledo, ECHL), D Henri Jokiharju (traded to BUF), G Anton Forsberg (traded to CAR), G Cam Ward (retired)

    Still Unsigned: F Andrew Campbell

    Re-signed: F David Kampf, F Brendan Perlini

    Offseason Analysis: Chicago Blackhawks General Manager, Stan Bowman, had a busy offseason making six trades that involved players and navigating a transition period for the franchise that has won three Stanley Cup championships in the last decade, but found themselves outside of the playoffs for the last two seasons.

    First, Bowman dealt forward, Dominik Kahun, and a 2019 5th round pick to the Pittsburgh Penguins for defender, Olli Maatta, on June 15th, then the Blackhawks GM followed things up with a minor swap with the New Jersey Devils a week later.

    Acquiring Maatta wasn’t the only adjustment made to Chicago’s blue line as Bowman traded Gustav Forsling and Anton Forsberg to the Carolina Hurricanes for Calvin de Haan and Aleksi Saarela on June 24th.

    By the end of the month, Bowman was reunited with former Blackhawk turned current Blackhawk once more– Andrew Shaw– in a trade with the Montreal Canadiens involving draft picks and Shaw.

    Maatta brings a $4.083 million cap hit, de Haan carries a $4.550 million cap hit and Shaw costs $3.900 million per season. All three players are under contract through the 2021-22 season.

    On July 1st, the Blackhawks strengthened their crease by signing Robin Lehner to a one-year, $5.000 million contract. The 28-year-old Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy winner is slated to backup 34-year-old, Corey Crawford, but could easily split time with the two-time Stanley Cup champion.

    Lehner could also become a valuable option if Crawford misses any time due to injury.

    Both goaltenders are in contract years.

    One (Crawford) is getting older and may not be able to keep playing indefinitely and the other (Lehner) just signed his one-year deal with the possibility of cashing in if Crawford cannot continue to be the goaltender for Chicago, let alone an NHL starter.

    Crawford managed a 14-18-5 record in 39 games played last season– while battling injuries– with a 2.93 goals against average and a .908 save percentage. In 2011-12, Crawford had a 2.72 GAA and a .903 SV% in 57 games as a starter.

    Lehner amassed a 25-13-5 record in 46 games last season with a 2.13 GAA and a .930 SV% en route to splitting the William M. Jennings Trophy honors for 2018-19 with his backup on the New York Islanders, Thomas Greiss.

    It’s no easy task to replace Crawford with the next goaltender in the post-Cup dynasty era, but Bowman’s already strategizing for the inevitable as time doesn’t wait for anyone.

    On July 9th, Bowman continued his offseason moves and dealt Henri Jokiharju to the Buffalo Sabres for Alexander Nylander– a player who’s yet to make an impact at the NHL level and looking for a change in scenery (you know, like how Dylan Strome turned things around after the Arizona Coyotes sent him to Chicago).

    Finally, Bowman completed his offseason trading with another one-for-one swap, sending Artem Anisimov to the Ottawa Senators for Zack Smith, saving the Blackhawks $1.300 million in the process for a durable third line center.

    Head coach, Jeremy Colliton, has a lot of new puzzle pieces to play with and figure out what’s the best fit.

    With an aging core, new acquisitions and plenty of fresh, young, faces emerging, Chicago is under no pressure to win it all in 2020, but they are hoping to make a serious dent in the regular season and make it back into the playoffs for the first time since 2017.

    Offseason Grade: A-

    The Blackhawks didn’t overpay anyone in free agency, but they did trade a 2020 2nd round pick, a 2020 7th round pick and a 2021 3rd round pick to the Canadiens for Shaw and a 2021 7th round pick. That’s… not ideal.

    Drafting Kirby Dach 3rd overall in June is sure to help speed up Chicago’s transition and avoid a rebuild, plus Bowman is remaining active in his roster construction with the future in mind instead of getting too attached to components from their Cup winning days.

  • 2019-20 Central Division Outlook

    As the entire hockey world awaits training camp action next month, let’s make some (un)educated guesses about the upcoming season that will totally pan out because everything always goes as expected. (It doesn’t.)

    The projected standings below are only a forecast.

    They are based on recent indications– as well as the last few seasons of stats– and cannot account for variations in roster construction (a.k.a. trades and free agency moves).

    There’s a lot of variables that will turn the tables upside down, including transactions, injuries and otherwise. Anything can happen.

    As always, it’s more important to remember 1) the spread and 2) the positioning.

    Just how many points separate the projected division winner from the last wild card spot (the spread) and where a team is supposed to finish in the division standings (the position) can imply that things aren’t always what they seem.

    A team that’s projected to win it all still has to play an 82-game regular season, qualify for the playoffs and go on to amass 16 wins in the postseason.

    Projected Standings After ZERO Months

    Central Division

    1. z-Nashville Predators, 103 points
    2. x-St. Louis Blues, 100 points
    3. x-Winnipeg Jets, 97 points
    4. wc2-Minnesota Wild, 93 points
    5. Chicago Blackhawks, 92 points
    6. Dallas Stars, 92 points
    7. Colorado Avalanche, 86 points

    Nashville Predators: Pros and Cons

    Before you continue reading, it’s important to remember that this is the most unpredictable division in the league currently. Seriously.

    Nashville is more than likely going to take the division in the regular season thanks to their minor moves in the offseason and major gains in the long haul, but everything else?

    That’s to be determined.

    Matt Duchene’s cap hit ($8,000,000) costs the Preds a million dollars less than P.K. Subban ($9,000,000), but there’s 10 pending UFAs on the roster after this season. If a legitimate one-two duo down the middle can’t get the Predators a Cup, then this window may be closing– and fast.

    Pekka Rinne isn’t getting any young and the crease will soon be Juuse Saros’ before you know it.

    The good news?

    The Preds are still one of the most impressive teams on the blue line with Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis and Dante Fabbro.

    How would the Predators fail?

    Somehow 30 points in a season gets you a seven-year contract (*ahem* Colton Sissons), but kudos to General Manager David Poile on doing so at a $2.857 cap hit though. That being said, this is dangerous logic that’s tempting fate at the hands of the Hockey Gods, which might only further weaken Nashville’s goaltending when it counts in the postseason.

    St. Louis Blues: Pros and Cons

    Glue guys score important goals in the playoffs and glue guys come in all shapes and sizes– including dadbod, a la Pat Maroon.

    But there’s just one problem, the hometown hero that lifted St. Louis over Dallas into the Western Conference Final has left the Blues for the Tampa Bay Lightning– a product of the salary cap era, a big postseason performance and a… wait, he’s not making a huge salary?

    Why did Maroon leave? Because Ivan Barbashev– the younger, better, faster, stronger more long-term approach player– is still an unsigned RFA and the Blues have less than $2.000 million in cap space currently.

    St. Louis still has its core, however, and will now find out if Jordan Binnington is truly “The One” or a one hit wonder over the course of a full season of having Binnington as their starter.

    When all is said and done, the defending champs have a great chance to continue to make noise in the regular season and, well, we’ve never experienced the Blues winning the Cup before, so… can it happen again? Is that a thing?

    How would the Blues fail?

    The cliché Stanley Cup hangover. It’s a long, grueling, season that takes its toll– even with all sorts of proper training and nutrition.

    Winnipeg Jets: Pros and Cons

    The Jets are in trouble. Sure, they might have a decent season and finish in a divisional spot heading into the playoffs, but they’ve got about $16.150 million in cap space and currently unsigned RFAs in Patrik Laine, Kyle Connor and Eric Comrie right now.

    Not to mention the fact that they traded Jacob Trouba to the New York Rangers in the offseason for Neal Pionk, but at least Winnipeg got back their 2019 1st round pick in the transaction (previously dealt to New York in the Kevin Hayes trade).

    Yes, a team that should see a bounce-back season in the crease from Connor Hellebuyck leading the way to a potential deep postseason run, might not even make it past the First Round if two of their prominent players (Laine and Connor) are still unsigned by the start of the regular season.

    Other than that, Dustin Byfuglien is aiming for a strong run without any more injuries and the rest of Winnipeg is looking to quietly do their thing under the tremendous leadership of their captain, Blake Wheeler.

    How would the Jets fail?

    If Laine and/or Connor miss any part of the regular season, the Jets aren’t going to be soaring all that far without the fuel to get them to the Stanley Cup Final.

    Minnesota Wild: Pros and Cons

    What an offseason for the Wild and their fans, right? I mean, things are really wild in Minnesota.

    First, Mats Zuccarello lands a five-year, $30.000 million contract in the State of Hockey, then (now former) General Manager Paul Fenton is fired and now Bill Guerin has his first job as an NHL GM.

    Welcome to the club, Mr. Guerin, now undo all of this mess that was done by the last guy and the guy before him dating back to July 4, 2012.

    At least a full season of Ryan Donato in a Wild sweater should be exciting.

    Joel Eriksson Ek signed a two-year extension and Ryan Suter’s play wasn’t too terrible last season, but the wheels fell off in the crease because of how bad puck possession was in front of Devan Dubnyk and Alex Stalock.

    Though they’re forecasted as a wild card berth (the forecast formula accounts for more than just last season), Minnesota’s not looking like they’re really going to be much better than they were last season– if at all.

    Unless Guerin has any big plans up his sleeve and can get to work patching the holes left and right.

    How would the Wild fail?

    If they add another player over the age of 30 to their roster, then you know it’s a full-on rebuild (which might actually be for the better at this point).

    Chicago Blackhawks: Pros and Cons

    Patrick Kane had a tremendous season in 2018-19, amassing 44-66–110 totals in 81 games while the Blackhawks failed to make the postseason for the second straight year.

    In the meantime, those that remain from Chicago’s three Cups in five years core are another year older. Jonathan Toews is 31, Kane is 30, Brent Seabrook is 34, Duncan Keith is 36 and starting goaltender, Corey Crawford, is 34.

    While incredibly talented, time is not on the Hawks’ side.

    That’s why General Manager Stan Bowman has been working to make the team younger with Dylan Strome, Alex DeBrincat and newcomer Olli Maatta (acquired in a trade with the Pittsburgh Penguins this summer) taking on larger roles on the Original Six squad.

    Even better, 28-year-old defender in his prime, Calvin de Haan, bolsters Chicago’s blue line and provides some much needed time on ice relief for Seabrook and/or Keith as second-year head coach, Jeremy Colliton, sees fit.

    Winning the 3rd overall pick in the draft in June, brought Kirby Dach into the equation– whether he’ll be ready for NHL stardom behind Toews and Strome immediately or not.

    Though the Blackhawks are forecasted to narrowly miss the postseason for the third straight season, they aren’t going to miss out on the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs by much and will be the team to knock out one of the teams higher up in this outlook (*ahem* Minnesota).

    How would the Blackhawks fail?

    Age continues to chip away at the memories of yesteryear. That, or injuries, probably.

    Dallas Stars: Pros and Cons

    The Stars weren’t happy with the production from their best players despite the fact that they were– in fact– their best players. Who would’ve thought?

    But now Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn are joined by veterans Joe Pavelski and Corey Perry among Dallas’ forwards, while Andrej Sekera has taken a supporting role on the defense in place of the current unrestricted free agent Marc Methot (who may retire altogether).

    On the bright side, Dallas’ defense contains Miro Heiskanen, Esa Lindell, John Klingberg and one of the most underrated aspects in the league– itself.

    The Stars defense– combined with the superb duo of Ben Bishop as the starting goaltender and Anton Khudobin as their backup– is really solid.

    Unfortunately, the team with the most goals at the end of the game always wins and sometimes Dallas just couldn’t score.

    That’s where General Manager Jim Nill has looked to Pavelski’s prowess and Perry’s ability– should he rebound– to try to fill the cracks in their offensive game and start winning games even if they only give up a goal or two when it matters most (the playoffs).

    Should the Stars beat the aging curve, they’ll make it back to the playoffs. But don’t think it’s easy– they coasted into the postseason last season and shouldn’t make a habit out of that if they’re looking to play their best hockey deep into June.

    How would the Stars fail?

    Somehow bringing in Pavelski (35-years-old), Perry (34), Sekera (33)– thereby increasing your overall average age– and expanding your list of no-trade and/or no-movement clauses to seven players on your roster just doesn’t always seem to payout. But at least Perry and Sekera are on one-year, $1.500 million contracts.

    Colorado Avalanche: Pros and Cons

    Pro: This forecast doesn’t take into account how much of an outlier the 2016-17 season was for the Avs.

    Con: Unfortunately, the 2016-17 season has to be included in the dataset to “accurately” predict the upcoming season’s outcome until the 2026-27 season or so.

    Pro: Colorado has one of the best first lines in the NHL.

    Con: Mikko Rantanen is still an unsigned RFA (and he’s a vital part of the first line).

    Pro: Joonas Donskoi, Nazem Kadri, Calle Rosen and Andre Burakovsky are all newcomers to the Avalanche with something to prove. GM Joe Sakic was busy on the phone(s)!

    Con: If the team doesn’t gel by January, it’s going to be a long season.

    Pro: Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar.

    Con: The number of games Gabriel Landeskog will be suspended for at some point in the season.

    Pro: This is a very exciting team to watch and a surefire dark-horse to make the Stanley Cup Final.

    Con: Now I’ve jinxed them.

    How would the Avalanche fail?

    By proving this forecast right and inexplicably regressing to their 2016-17 season ways. Otherwise, they’re definitely not actually finishing last in the Central Division… right?

  • 2019-20 Atlantic Division Outlook

    As the entire hockey world awaits training camp action next month, let’s make some (un)educated guesses about the upcoming season that will totally pan out because everything always goes as expected. (It doesn’t.)

    The projected standings below are only a forecast.

    They are based on recent indications– as well as the last few seasons of stats– and cannot account for variations in roster construction (a.k.a. trades and free agency moves).

    There’s a lot of variables that will turn the tables upside down, including transactions, injuries and otherwise. Anything can happen.

    As always, it’s more important to remember 1) the spread and 2) the positioning.

    Just how many points separate the projected division winner from the last wild card spot (the spread) and where a team is supposed to finish in the division standings (the position) can imply that things aren’t always what they seem.

    A team that’s projected to win it all still has to play an 82-game regular season, qualify for the playoffs and go on to amass 16 wins in the postseason.

    Projected Standings After ZERO Months

    Atlantic Division

    1. p-Tampa Bay Lightning, 109 points
    2. x-Boston Bruins, 105 points
    3. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 91 points
    4. Florida Panthers, 89 points
    5. Montreal Canadiens, 89 points
    6. Detroit Red Wings, 84 points
    7. Ottawa Senators, 78 points
    8. Buffalo Sabres, 71 points

    Tampa Bay Lightning: Pros and Cons

    The Lightning are annual favorites among the experts to win the Stanley Cup, so it’s no surprise, really, that they haven’t yet. There’s either too many expectations to live up to or there’s too much of a casual atmosphere from season-to-season.

    You know what they say when you assume.

    Just like the Washington Capitals and their 2018 Stanley Cup championship, it’s better for the Bolts if nobody is talking about them. Prior to the Caps winning in 2018, there was a “Cup or bust” mantra that just didn’t work.

    Nothing is willed without hard work and humility.

    That’s not to say Tampa doesn’t work hard or isn’t humble, but rather, they must lose on the big stage repetitively until everyone expects them to fail. That’s when they’ll go on a run.

    They’ve managed to keep their roster together (granted, RFA center, Brayden Point, is still unsigned) while trimming the fat (gone are the days of Anton Stralman and Dan Girardi on the blue line) and are still Stanley Cup front-runners, but they likely won’t get back to the 60-win plateau in back-to-back seasons.

    The Lightning will still get to 50 wins for the third season in-a-row, have Nikita Kucherov set the league on fire in scoring and yield out-of-this-world goaltending from Andrei Vasilevskiy before the real season starts– the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

    How would the Lightning fail?

    Everyone keeps talking about the Lightning as if they’re some godsend (too much hype, remember?). That, or General Manager Julien BriseBois blows up the roster and/or Jon Cooper is fired as head coach.

    Boston Bruins: Pros and Cons

    The Bruins core remains strong among their forwards and as long as they’re able to negotiate an extension with RFAs Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo without any bumps in the road, then their defense is pretty sound too.

    Jaroslav Halak signed a two-year deal last summer, so the 1A/1B tandem of Tuukka Rask and Halak in the crease seems fine for another run in 2019-20.

    Boston exceeded expectations in 2017-18 and went under the radar in 2018-19– though they managed to amass only 10 losses in regulation since Jan. 1st, which means they were actually pretty loud in the points percentage column.

    Injuries come and go.

    If the Bruins are able to stay healthy instead of dropping like flies to their 12th defenseman on the depth chart, they might actually pick up a few more points than they did last season.

    With Bruce Cassidy as head coach, things should remain status quo in the regular season, but Boston still needs to address their top-six forward problem.

    David Pastrnak can play on the first or second line, but on any given night that leaves one of their top two lines in need of a scoring winger.

    General Manager Don Sweeney managed to patch a hole at the third line center– acquiring Charlie Coyle as last season’s trade deadline loomed– and Coyle was one of their better players in their 2019 Stanley Cup Final postseason run.

    But with a couple of depth signings for bottom six roles in the offseason (Par Lindholm and Brett Ritchie), everyone getting another year older and David Backes’ $6.000 million cap hit through 2020-21 still on the books, Boston’s hands are tied.

    How would the Bruins fail?

    There’s enough bark in the regular season, but not enough bite for a deep postseason run. It’s harder than ever before to make it back to the Stanley Cup Final in back-to-back seasons– and that’s before you consider age, injuries and regression.

    Toronto Maple Leafs: Pros and Cons

    Toronto has Auston Matthews as their second best center. Yes. Second best. Why? Because John Tavares enters the second year of his long-term seven-year deal that he signed last July.

    That alone will continue to keep the Leafs afloat with a strong 1-2 duo down the middle.

    Regardless of the Mitch Marner contract negotiations (or lack thereof), the Maple Leafs are just fine with their forwards– having traded Nazem Kadri to the Colorado Avalanche and acquiring Alex Kerfoot in the process (Calle Rosen and Tyson Barrie were also swapped in the deal).

    Patrick Marleau is gone and it only cost Toronto a conditional 2020 1st round pick (top-10 lottery protected) and a 2020 7th round pick in the process, but an affordable Jason Spezza at league minimum salary ($700,000) on a one-year deal for fourth line minutes will do just fine.

    By puck drop for the 2019-20 season, the Leafs will save $10.550 million in cap space thanks to David Clarkson (yes, his contract’s back after a trade with the Vegas Golden Knights that sent Garret Sparks the other way) and Nathan Horton’s placement on the long-term injured reserve.

    The stars are aligning for Toronto to still need to get past the First Round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2004.

    With Kadri gone, however, perhaps they will be able to do so with or without Boston in the equation.

    How would the Leafs fail?

    They don’t sign Marner and they lose in another Game 7 because of it. There’s a lot of turbulence ahead for Toronto General Manager Kyle Dubas considering the Leafs have one defender under contract after 2019-20. If the team doesn’t breakout in the postseason, it’s really just status quo until proven otherwise.

    Florida Panthers: Pros and Cons

    The Panthers are beginning to ripen with a mix of youth and experience among their forwards, plus a defense that quietly does their job.

    They also added Noel Acciari, Brett Connolly, Anton Stralman and (most importantly) Sergei Bobrovsky to the mix.

    While Acciari’s $1.667 million cap hit through 2021-22 is a slight overpay for a fourth line center, at least it could be worse. Connolly’s making $3.500 million for the next four years and even Stralman has a cap hit of $5.500 million through 2021-22 when he’ll be turning 36 on August 1, 2022.

    Ok, so it was an expensive offseason for Florida– and that’s before you add the $10.000 million price tag for the next seven years of Bobrovsky in the crease.

    Yes, despite landing one of the better goaltenders in the league in free agency, General Manager Dale Tallon managed to make matters complicated after, say, the fourth year of Bobrovsky’s contract.

    Bobrovsky will be roughly 37-years-old by the time his contract with the Panthers expires and not everyone can be like Dwayne Roloson in the net forever.

    At least they drafted Spencer Knight (in the first round– a goaltending prospect curse).

    Though they missed the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs by 12 points for an Eastern Conference wild card spot, the Panthers are in a position to gain more than a few wins with new head coach (and three-time Stanley Cup champion) Joel Quenneville behind the bench.

    How would the Panthers fail?

    Florida’s already landed the biggest prize in head coaching free agency with Quenneville reuniting with Tallon in Sunrise. What could possibly go wrong (besides Tallon being replaced by a clone of Stan Bowman and then the Panthers go on to win three Cups without Tallon in command)?

    Montreal Canadiens: Pros and Cons

    Montreal didn’t get Matt Duchene or Sebastian Aho in free agency, so they got the next best thing– not overspending on July 1st.

    That’s not to say Duchene and Aho aren’t quality players, but rather just an observation of cap concerns for the Habs with Max Domi as a pending-RFA in July 2020 and the rest of Montreal’s future core (Ryan Poehling, Nick Suzuki, Victor Mete, Cayden Primeau and Jesperi Kotkaniemi) to consider going down the road.

    Granted, Aho could’ve sped the process up a bit if it weren’t for those pesky RFA rights and compensation in the CBA, right Montreal?

    The Canadiens need a legitimate number one center, but General Manager Marc Bergevin has been preoccupied restructuring the defense in the meantime.

    That’s not a bad thing.

    Shea Weber is 34 and under contract through the 2025-26 season, though after 2021-22, his base salary drops to $3.000 million in 2022-23 and $1.000 million from 2023-26 (meaning he could be traded with ease in a few years, despite his $7.857 million cap hit).

    But Karl Alzner and Jeff Petry are both over 30 and have no-trade and/or no-movement clauses in their contracts.

    At least free agent addition, Ben Chiarot, is 28-years-old, but he also carries a no-trade clause as part of his three-year deal.

    How would the Canadiens fail?

    Claude Julien inexplicably reverts back to his old ways and doesn’t play the kids, Carey Price is injured for most of the season and/or Bergevin overcompensates in a trade because of his failure to secure a free agent center.

    Detroit Red Wings: Pros and Cons

    Steve Yzerman has come home and is rightfully the General Manager for the Red Wings, but as we’ve seen in Tampa, his masterplan takes a little time.

    Detroit is four or five years out from being an annual Cup contender, but that doesn’t mean the Red Wings haven’t already sped things up in their rebuild.

    Trading for Adam Erne isn’t a grand-slam, but it does make the average age of the roster a tad younger.

    It also means that the Red Wings now have seven pending-RFAs on their NHL roster and roughly $37.000 million to work with in July 2020.

    How would the Red Wings fail?

    Having Yzerman in the front office at Little Caesars Arena is like adding all of the best toppings to a pizza. The only downside is that leftover pineapple is still on the pizza from all of the no-trade clauses delivered by the last guy.

    Ottawa Senators: Pros and Cons

    The Senators are looking to spend ba-by.

    Just kidding, they don’t plan on being good until 2021, so does that mean starting with the 2020-21 season or the following year in 2021-22?

    But they do have a ton of draft picks stockpiled including two in the 1st round in 2020, three in the 2nd round, one in the 3rd, 4th and 5th, a pair in the 6th and one in the 7th.

    Plus they have roughly $15.600 million in cap space currently and eight players under contract for next season that aren’t on the injured reserve.

    For some reason (Eugene Melnyk) current-RFA Colin White is still unsigned and 38-year-old, Ron Hainsey, was signed in free agency, but at least Cody Ceci is a Maple Leaf now.

    Oh and former Leafs assistant coach D.J. Smith is Ottawa’s head coach now. That’ll show them!

    How would the Senators fail?

    More importantly, how would Ottawa succeed?

    Buffalo Sabres: Pros and Cons

    Pro: The Sabres will probably be better than last season.

    Con: Ralph Krueger is Buffalo’s new head coach and nobody knows what to expect (he went 19-22-7 in the lockout shortened 48-game season with the Edmonton Oilers in 2012-13).

    Pro: Only eight skaters are under contract next season.

    Con: Only eight skaters are under contract next season, including Rasmus Ristolainen and nobody is sure whether or not the club is trying to trade him.

    Pro: Marcus Johansson!

    Con: Jimmy Vesey! (Only cost Buffalo two third round picks over three years to get him.)

    Pro: The average age of the roster is about 26.

    Con: Matt Hunwick is the oldest player at 34-years-old, followed by Carter Hutton at 33 and Vladimir Sobotka at 32.

    Pro: Royal blue in 2020!

    Con: It’s not until 2020.

    How would the Sabres fail?

    If Buffalo actually finishes last in the division, instead of any improvement whatsoever.

  • DTFR Podcast #164- The Free Agency Mega-Hour

    DTFR Podcast #164- The Free Agency Mega-Hour

    Nick, Cap’n and Pete recap the last two weeks of trades and first few days of free agency 2K19.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

  • DTFR Podcast #163- Cap’n Crunch

    DTFR Podcast #163- Cap’n Crunch

    The salary cap isn’t going up as much as everyone hoped. Also, there were plenty of trades, buyouts and extensions handed out in the last week. Nick, Colby, Cap’n and Pete examine each move and pick 2019 NHL Awards winners.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

  • DTFR Podcast #144- (The Other) Auston City Limits

    DTFR Podcast #144- (The Other) Auston City Limits

    Auston Matthews signed an extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs. What does this mean for the Leafs? Alex Stalock, Jordan Martinook and Pheonix Copley all signed extensions with their clubs, as Tuukka Rask became the winningest goaltender in Boston Bruins history, Alex Ovechkin became the highest scoring Russian-born NHL player and Paul Maurice reached 1,500 games behind the bench as a head coach.

    The DTFR Duo also reviewed all 31 NHL teams as buyers and/or sellers at the 2019 trade deadline.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.