Down the Frozen River

Tag: Smith

  • January 3 – Day 85 – Which is more Wild? Minnesota or the Everglades?

    Yesterday’s Game of the Day between the New York Rangers and the Florida Panthers ended in a home shutout winner, as First Star of the Game Roberto Luongo led his squad to a 3-0 victory, their eighth-straight.

    The first goal of the night, the game-winner, was a backhander from Second Star Logan Shaw, assisted by Corban Knight with only 25 seconds remaining in the opening period.

    The second period was witness to both of Florida‘s insurance goals.  The first of those came 4:41 after resuming play from the intermission, compliments of a Vincent Trocheck tip-in, assisted by Alex Petrovic and Brian Campbell.  At the 11:18 mark, the third and final goal of the night found the back of the net courtesy of a Brandon Pirri power play slapshot, assisted by Reilly Smith and Jussi Jokinen, setting the score at the 3-0 final.

    Luongo improves his record to 17-11-3 by saving all 40 shots he faced, while Henrik Lundqvist’s record falls to 17-11-3 after saving 17 of 20 (85%).

    The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 33-16-6, favoring the home squads by 24 points over the roadies.

    After a full Saturday schedule, the NHL relaxes a little bit, as there’s only four games this Sunday.  The action gets started at 5 p.m. eastern when Dallas visits the New York Islanders, followed an hour later by Minnesota at Florida.  7 p.m. eastern brings with it Ottawa at Chicago (NHLN/TVAS/SN), and this evening’s nightcap gets started at 9 p.m. eastern when Winnipeg visits Anaheim.

    None of today’s games are between divisional rivals (in fact, Winnipeg at Anaheim is the only game between teams from the same conference!), but two are between teams that are both qualifying for the playoffs (Dallas at New York and Minnesota at Florida).  Lastly, the Winnipeg–Anaheim game is a rematch of one of last season’s Western Conference Quarterfinal matchups.

    I know that we just watched Florida last night, but I am more intrigued by their game against the Wild than the Stars–Isles game, so I’m making the executive decision to keep our focus in Sunrise, Fla.

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    This evening’s game will be Minnesota‘s seventh appearance in the DtFR Game of the Day series, where they own a 4-2-0 record.  Their most recent showing while the focus of our attention was their game in St. Louis on New Year’s Eve, a 3-1 victory.  This is Florida‘s fourth showing after winning their game against the Rangers last night.

    The 20-10-7 Minnesota Wild‘s most recent game was a 3-2 shutout defeat last night in Tampa Bay.  They’ve utilized one of the best defenses (fourth in goals against) in the league to establish themselves in fourth place in the Central Division and fifth in the Western Conference.  You can read a more in-depth summary of Minnesota‘s play here.

    Just like Minnesota, the 22-12-4 Florida Panthers play a top-five defense (as measured by goals against) to establish themselves as the best in the Atlantic Division and second in the Eastern Conference, and are currently riding a league-best eight-game win streak.  Yesterday’s Game of the Day provides a more in-depth analysis of the Panthers‘ game, and can be found here.

    Some players to watch in tonight’s game include Florida‘s Luongo (17 wins [tied for fifth in the league] and .926 save percentage [tenth-best in the league]) and Minnesota‘s Devan Dubnyk (four shutouts [tied for third in the league] and 16 wins [tied for eighth in the league]).

    It is my opinion that both Florida‘s offense and defense are better than that of the Wild.  Coupling that with home-ice for the Panthers, and this should be a Florida winner.

  • December 22 – Day 76 – Would a Miami Vice also be considered a Sen?

    Dallas may have waited until they were down two goals, but they ended up beating Minnesota 6-3.

    On the same day he signed a four-year, $20.75 million contract extension, Jared Spurgeon celebrated by scoring his fifth goal of the season at the 4:57 mark of the game.  The Wild‘s second goal came 3:19 later, when Justin Fontaine and Third Star of the Game Nino Niederreiter assisted First Star Charlie Coyle to his seventh score of the season.  Minnesota‘s 2-0 lead held into the first intermission.

    While the first 20 minutes was all about the home squad, the second period favored the road Stars.  Dallas scored their first goal of the game at the 14:59 mark of the second period, courtesy of Jordie Benn, assisted by Jason Spezza, his 12th helper of the season.  3:31 later, Dallas tied the game at two-all with a power play tally from Vernon Fiddler, assisted by Patrick Eaves and Alex Goligoski, his 11th of the season.  The Stars‘ final goal of the period came only 59 seconds later, as Patrick Sharp and Jamie Benn assisted Tyler Seguin to a wrister to take the lead.  Dallas‘ 3-2 lead held into the second intermission.

    Dallas‘ fourth straight goal, the eventual game-winner, came only 3:41 into the final period when Johnny Oduya assisted Antoine Roussel to a backhander.  The streak ended at the 10:26 mark when Coyle and Fontaine assisted Niederreiter, setting the score at 4-3.  The comeback could not be completed though, as Cody Eakin scored the first of two empty netters for the Stars at the 18:07 mark.  The second came with only 14 seconds remaining in the game when Seguin assisted Fiddler to his second goal of the game, and the final tally of the night.

    Second Star Antti Niemi improved his record to 14-5-2 after earning the win, saving 30 of 31 (96.8%).  He replaced Kari Lehtonen, who saved only two of four shots faced (50%) in only 8:16 played.  14-9-2 Devan Dubnyk earns the loss after saving only 28 of 32 (87.5%).

    The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 28-12-6, favoring the home squads by 24 over the roadies.

    Tonight is the last set of games before the NHL takes their Christmas break, with action resuming this Saturday.  Due to that, there’s a total of 10 games occurring this evening, with the first two getting started at 7 p.m. eastern (St. Louis at Boston and Anaheim at the New York Rangers [SN1]).  Three more get started 30 minutes later (New Jersey at Detroit, Vancouver at Tampa Bay [TVAS] and Ottawa at Florida [RDS2]), followed at 8 p.m. eastern by Montréal at Minnesota (NBCSN/RDS).  Chicago at Dallas gets started at 8:30 p.m. eastern, followed half an hour later by two more (Winnipeg at Calgary and Toronto at Arizona).  Finally, the nightcap drops the opening puck at 10:30 p.m. eastern when Los Angeles hosts San Jose (NBCSN/SN).

    Three of tonight’s games are between divisional rivals (Ottawa at Florida, Chicago at Dallas and San Jose at Los Angeles), and they are joined by two others (St. Louis at Boston and Montréal at Minnesota) to make five games between current playoff qualifiers.

    The game that deserves our attention is the one that will have the biggest effect on the standings going into the three-day break, so let’s focus in on the Sunshine State.

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    This will be Ottawa‘s fourth time featured in DtFR’s featured matchup.  When the focus of our attention, they have a 1-2-0 record, with their most recent showing a 4-2 victory over the Sharks on Friday.  The home Panthers have only been featured once before, when they visited Boston on December 12 and lost 3-1.

    The 17-12-5 Ottawa Senators are currently in fifth place in the Atlantic Division and eighth in the Eastern Conference, which qualifies them for the second wild card position.  Their most recent contest was a 5-2 loss in Tampa Bay on Sunday.  The Sens are certainly an offensive-minded team, as they’ve had to cover up mistakes on the other end of the ice.

    So far this season, the Senators have only put 953 shots on net (led by Mike Hoffman’s 94), they’ve scored on a whopping 10.6% of those attempts for 101 goals, including Hoffman’s team-leading 17 tallies.  Although Ottawa employs a strong offense, an interestingly average aspect of their attack is their power play.  On 106 attempts, they’ve scored 20 goals (led by Hoffman’s four), for a slightly sub-average 18.87% success rate.

    The offense has needed to be good, because the other end of the ice has been lacking.  Although Erik Karlsson has a team-leading 69 blocks, 1140 shots have made it to 15-9-3 Craig Anderson and co.  Although the goaltenders have allowed 99 goals, they do have a combined 91.8% save rate that slightly exceeds the league average, implying that the defense needs to do more to disrupt plays and block shots, potentially by being active before or at the trade deadline.

    An even more distressing number is Ottawa‘s penalty kill rate: 76.99%.  They have allowed 26 power play goals to the opposition on 113 attempts.  This also points to Ottawa being very active at the trade deadline to bolster their blue line.

    Their opposition this evening are the 18-12-4 Florida Panthers, who currently sit in fourth in the Atlantic Division and seventh in the Eastern Conference, which qualifies them for the first wild card.  They are currently riding a four-game win streak, with their most recent showing a 5-4 shootout victory over the Canucks on Sunday.  Florida plays well on both ends of the ice, but their strength is certainly their defense.

    Although the Panther defense has allowed more shots on net than average, they have been much more stingy than Ottawa, allowing only 998, helped by Willie Mitchell’s team-leading 49 blocks.  The real strength has been 13-11-3 Roberto Luongo an co.  While his personal record is not indicative of their success, the goaltenders have a combined 92.6% save rate that leads the league average.  One spot where Florida still needs to improve is on the penalty kill.  They have allowed 20 goals on 106 attempts for a 81.13% kill rate that barely exceeds the league average.

    The Panthers‘ offense may have put only 953 shots on goal (led by Aaron Ekblad’s 88), they’ve scored on 9.3% of those attempts for 89 goals, led by Reilly Smith’s 11.  The power play has been an extension of that success, as they’ve scored 22 goals on 113 opportunities for a 19.47% success rate that leads the league average by .55%.

    Tonight’s result could have major implications on the Atlantic Division and the Eastern Conference Wild-Card standings.  Should Ottawa pull off the upset on the road, they will move into a tie with Detroit (who has a game against the Devils tonight) at 41 points.  A Florida win puts the Panthers into a tie with Boston (who is hosting the Blues this evening), while an overtime loss puts them into a tie with Detroit and Ottawa.

    Some players to watch in tonight’s game include Florida‘s Ekblad (+11 and 88 shots [both lead team]), Erik Gudbranson (84 hits [leads team]) and Jaromir Jagr (24 points [leads team]) & Ottawa‘s Anderson (15 wins [tied for fourth in the league] and two shutouts [tied for seventh in the league]), Hoffman (17 goals [tied for fifth in the league]) and Karlsson (28 assists [second in the league] and 37 points [fourth in the league]).

    Due to Ottawa‘s poor defensive game and being on the road, I expect the Florida Panthers to win tonight’s game.

  • November 9 – Day 34 – Out of Necessity, Vol. 3

    Yesterday’s Game of the Day between the Dallas Stars and the Detroit Red Wings ended pretty close to how I think many expected it to, as the Stars won 4-1.

    Dallas didn’t wait too long to get their first score on the board.  Assisted by First Star of the Game John Klingberg and Tyler Seguin, Patrick Sharp scored a power play goal only 7:22 into the game.  The eventual game winner was scored almost eight minutes later (7:57, to be precise) by Valeri Nichushkin (his first of the year) after being assisted by Third Star Jordie Benn and Jyrki Jokipakka.  With only 27 seconds remaining in the period, Detroit got back within a goal after Second Star Gustav Nyquist notched a power play tally, assisted by Niklas Kronwall and Mike Green.  The 2-1 score held well into the third period before things started falling apart in the Joe.

    Only down a goal, Detroit pulled goaltender Petr Mrazek (Jimmy Howard started, but took a knee to the head at the 7:09 mark of the third), but Seguin, assisted by Sharp and Klingberg, made the Wings pay with an empty netter at the 18:52 mark.  Seventeen seconds later, Vernon Fiddler sent a puck over the glass, giving the Wings a power play, so they again pulled Mrazek to have a two-man advantage.  Yet once again, it was the Stars who scored, as Jamie Benn assisted Cody Eakin to a shorthanded empty netter, Dallas‘ fourth goal of the evening.

    Kari Lehtonen improved his record to 6-1-0 after saving 21 of 22 (95.5%), while Howard’s record falls to 3-3-1 after saving 20 of 22 (90.9%).  Since the final two Stars goals were empty netters, Petr Mrazek technically shut Dallas out in his 11:06 played after saving both shots he faced, earning a no-decision.

    The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 19-9-5, favoring the home squad by 13 points over the roadies.

    If you’ve been following along with us all season, you already know what’s coming based on the title of this post.  There’s a whopping… *insert_drumroll_here.mp3*… one game being played tonight!  *insert_cymbal_crash_and_cool_instrumental_vamp_here.mp3*  Yes, the entire attention of the NHL will be turned to The Pond tonight when the Anaheim Ducks host the Arizona Coyotes at 10 p.m. eastern.

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    This is Arizona‘s first appearance in the DtFR Game of the Day series, while Anaheim is making their third.  The last time they were featured, they fell in overtime in the United Center after playing all of regulation to a scoreless tie.

    The 6-6-1 Arizona Coyotes enter tonight’s game in fourth place in the Pacific Division and 10th place in the Western Conference.  Their most recent game was a 4-1 thumping from the New York Rangers at Gila River Arena on Saturday.  So far this season, the Coyotes have been a better defensive team, but both ends of the ice are still sub-par in comparison to the rest of the league.

    One of the few things Arizona has gotten right all season has been keeping opposing shots off Mike Smith.  Led by Zbynek Michalek’s  26 blocks, only 395 shots have required a save.  The defense may continue to be asked for more though, as Smith and his backup, Anders Lindback, have saved only 90.6% of those shots combined, allowing 38 goals so far this season.

    That being said, the penalty kill has been fairly successful this season.  On 50 opposing attempts, only eight goals have been scored, giving them a 84% kill rate that exceeds the league average by a decent bit (2.81% as of Sunday morning).

    On the other end, the offense has only put 371 shots on goal (led by Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s 45), of which only 35 have completed their journey in the back of the net.

    A major shortcoming of the Coyotes‘ is their power play.  Although they’ve earned a considerable 53 attempts, they’ve only managed to score six times.  That power play rate of 11.32% is made even worse due to the fact that the Coyotes have allowed a whopping four shorthanded goals already this year.  The special teams need to be a point of focus should Arizona want to take advantage of a weak division.

    The 5-7-2 Anaheim Ducks enter the game on a four-game win streak, last beating the San Jose Sharks 1-0 in The Tank on Saturday.  They currently sit at fifth in the Pacific Division and 11th in the Western Conference, and are beginning to resemble the Ducks we expected to see this season.

    Defense, specifically goaltending, has been the name of the game in Anaheim, as they’ve only allowed 33 goals so far this season.  Even though Frederik Andersen and his backup, Anton Khudobin, have faced 442 shots combined, they’ve saved a strong 93% of those attempts.  Add that in with Kevin Bieksa’s 28 blocks, and you find a team that plays as sound a defense as possible.

    Even on the penalty kill, the Ducks have found ways to keep the opposition off the board.  On 48 attempts, opponents have scored only four power play goals.  If you’re doing the math in your head, the number you’ve come to is not wrong: the Ducks are killing 91.67% of their penalties, a rate that exceeds the league average by over 10%.

    The offense has had a tough time getting started this year, as they’ve only managed 393 shots so far (led by Jakob Silfverberg’s 32, even though he has yet to score).  They’ve scored on 5.3% of those attempts for a measly 22 goals, but half of those goals have come during their four-game win streak, which should probably make their division rivals a little worried.

    A spot where Anaheim still needs to improve is the power play.  On 42 attempts, only five pucks have found the back of the net for a lowly 11.9% success rate.  Again, it seems like Anaheim has finally started getting their skates under them, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see these numbers begin to climb in the next few weeks.

    Last season, the Ducks won the season series 3-0-2, but were only 1-0-1 at the Honda Center.

    Some players to watch in this one include Anaheim‘s Andersen (.935 save percentage [seventh in the league] and 2.03 GAA [tenth in the league]) and Arizona‘s Martin Hanzal (12 assists [tied for fifth in the league]).

    Based on the statistics, their current winning streak, and the fact that they’re playing at home, I expect the Anaheim Ducks to take care of business in this one and move into fourth place in the division.