Tag Archives: Sean Kuraly

Numbers Game: Boston Through 20 (2017-18)

The 2017-2018 regular season is rolling along as American Thanksgiving is once again upon us and everyone’s freaking out about some of the teams that are in playoff position (like Vegas) or not (like NYR) and all that stuff about “teams that are in the playoff picture by Thanksgiving traditionally make the playoffs based on stats”.

I’m as much of a stats fan as the next guy, but in today’s NHL, parity is unpredictable. There are some false positives in the playoff picture right now as there are equally some teams that we all thought would be dominating the Pacific Division currently– I’m looking at you, Edmonton Oilers.

Alas, the Boston Bruins find themselves in fourth place in the Atlantic Division as they are about to chow down on some turkey, quinoa and whatever else I’m sure Zdeno Chara is probably cooking up for them because if you haven’t already heard, his diet is better than Tom Brady’s*.

*I don’t actually stand by this claim, Mr. Brady. You’re still the GOAT.

Boston is one point away from tying the Detroit Red Wings in points, but would leap over them for sole position of third place in the division if the B’s tied Detroit, given the Bruins have a game-in-hand on the Red Wings currently. Likewise, if Boston added two points outright, they’d surpass Detroit (because that’s how the whole “2 points for a win, 1 point for an overtime/shootout loss and no points for a regulation loss” thing works).

Please remember that my degree is in communication– not math– so any miscalculations are Microsoft Excel’s fault.

Without further ado and to give you something to talk about at the dinner table while you stuff your face with sweet potatoes, here’s a look at how every player on the Bruins should pan out as the team has now played 20 games this season.

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Boston Bruins Projections Through 20 Games (62 Games Remaining)

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Keep in mind, young guys like Anders Bjork, Matt Grzelcyk and others will even out in some of their individual stats with more games under their feet. Bjork probably won’t have 15 points on the power play, but that’s just what the formula in Microsoft Excel shows until he gets another 10 or 20 games in his system.

Guys like Grzelcyk and Rob O’Gara, while they’ve played games over a couple of seasons, are like Bjork according to the formula in that their total number of career games means just about the same as one season (or more accurately, 16 games so far) of Bjork. And obviously Tommy Cross is Tommy Cross.

Like Jordan Szwarz, Cross doesn’t have a huge sample of career games played and there haven’t been plenty of appearances since his last game at the NHL level (though Szwarz actually filled in for nine games while David Krejci, Ryan Spooner and David Backes were out with injuries).

Thankfully Spooner is back and can start racking up assists, while Krejci can settle in with Jake DeBrusk pulling his weight as a rookie.

Hopefully Peter Cehlarik continues to be making claim for a longer stay with the big league club instead of going back to the Providence Bruins like he did last season after making his NHL debut, because his play with and without the puck has certainly been impressive– aside from the clear chemistry he has with David Krejci.

Patrice Bergeron has improved since his lower body injury forced him out of the lineup, but he’s still looking at an “off” year for the next 62 games ahead. That’s right, a bad year for Bergeron is still worth 60 points in scoring.

Whenever Brad Marchand returns from the IR, he should be just fine.

And it should be rather transparent, but David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy are incredible stars on this team. So there’s that.

Finally, there’s no goaltending controversy with the black and gold. Tuukka Rask should rebound, but you’d be crazy not to ride the back of Anton Khudobin while he’s been on fire lately.

Rask is best kept between 45 and 58 games in a season, so if Khudobin can keep up his current play for another 10 games or so before returning to his usual backup status, that should buy Rask plenty of time to recover from overworking the last three seasons (or more, probably more). Play Khudobin until he burns out, but hope he can take off almost 30 games from Rask’s workload compared to the last couple of seasons.


If you’re interested, here’s a look at how the Bruins should have been doing entering the 2017-2018 regular season.

Down the Frozen River Podcast #80- Depth and Taxes

Nick and Connor recap the 2017 SAP NHL Global Series, talk transactions and go long about the Boston Bruins. Additionally, the guys discussed the Radko Gudas incident and never actually say how much time he should be sitting out for his shenanigans.

Listen to this week’s podcast on our Libsyn page (and/or on your favorite podcast listening app that snags our RSS Feed).

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

Numbers Game: Boston Bruins 2017-2018 Projected Stats

Let’s ignore the first two games of the season that the Boston Bruins have already played and reset the clock to zero, because here’s a look at what is (was?) to be expected heading into this season for every player on the Bruins*.

*With some exceptions of course.

Unknown-7After being eliminated by the Ottawa Senators in the First Round of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Boston is looking for a deeper playoff run on the wings of the experience gained from those six extra games in April for David Pastrnak and the rest of their young crew.

Gut feeling dictates that Pastrnak and Brad Marchand will be as much of an offensive force as they were last season for Boston heading into this season, but what does the forecasting function in Microsoft Excel have to say about any of those bold predictions from this offseason on our podcast or otherwise?

As is tradition, my Bruins projections are presented below based on how every player on the roster has performed in their career leading up to this season. Players that have yet to play a game a regular season NHL game are not included in this first round of projections (denoted with “N/A” in most columns), but their stats will be included and accounted for about a quarter of the way through the regular season (roughly 20 games).

Yes, Charlie McAvoy played in the playoffs last season, but the fact of the matter is there is no true way to measure how his regular season will go based off of six career playoff games, wherein the pace of the game and many other variables are inherently different from regular season game-flow.

Or just give me some more time to come up with an excuse a more viable solution for projecting rookie’s stats prior to them taking the ice for the first time at the NHL level.

Sample size must always be kept in mind when glancing over these projections. A player who’s never played more than three career games (like Tommy Cross, for example) will reflect a tremendous value in projected assists if they’ve recorded even just one assist (again, like Providence Bruins all-time leader in games played, Tommy Cross) in those three games. This will fluctuate pending more appearances and/or throughout the season on its own (usually in the downward trend, unless said AHL player cracks the NHL roster full-time).

But for all the jokes, Tommy Cross is an excellent depth-defenseman/top-pair defenseman in the AHL to have. Shouts to him.

Additionally, please remember that my degree is in communication, not math, so I am by no means a wizard with numbers in Microsoft Excel and I’m sure my Corsi is terrible. Plus, you’re probably not a front office member or anyone who might have some credibility for statistical reasoning and advanced stats analysis in hockey, so take everything with a grain of salt before you complain that math is ruining “your” sport.

Unless you are some Corsi-god/NHL front office member and you’ve stumbled upon this, in which case, let’s start over. Hello, please ignore the last paragraph, my name is Nick and I’d like a job. Thanks.


On offense, the usual suspects for the Boston Bruins will remain the core components that push the team forward night-in and night-out. Patrice Bergeron should amass another 60-plus point season after having a “down year” last season with only 53 points in 2016-2017.

Pastrnak will lead the Bruins in points according to the latest models with 31-33-64 totals.

While Brad Marchand’s expected 31-29-60 totals this season rank fourth on the team’s projected scoring leaders behind Pastrnak (64), David Krejci (63) and Bergeron (62), it’s easy to imagine Marchand improving from his career best 39 goals, 46 assists (85 points) season last season and shattering his season-entering projections.

Gut Feeling 2.0 seems to point in the direction of Marchand leading in points, based off of last season, and Pastrnak leading in goals (as is shown in these numbers with Pastrnak and Marchand tied for the lead on the Bruins roster with 31 projected goals each this season).

Matt Beleskey and Frank Vatrano should each right their ships this season coming off of not-so-easy to return from leg injuries last season. Beleskey’s expected 14-16-30 totals would rank as his 3rd best season in his NHL career– with room to gain more ground– since appearing in two games with the Anaheim Ducks in 2008-2009.

Meanwhile, Vatrano (29 points projected in 2017-18), barring another injury, should finally partake in a full-season and become the glue-guy on the third line that he’s been expected to become after being a goal-a-game AHL player in his short career with Providence.

The Boston blue line looks retooled, restocked and ready to go.

Gone are John-Michael Liles, Colin Miller and Joe Morrow; in are the likes of Charlie McAvoy and Paul Postma. Liles has moved on to become a TV analyst for Altitude and Colorado Avalanche broadcasts while still technically an unrestricted free agent. Colin Miller was claimed by the Vegas Golden Knights at the 2017 Expansion Draft and Morrow signed with the rival Montreal Canadiens this offseason after not being tendered a qualifying offer.

McAvoy’s rookie season numbers will come fruition in the next 20 games or so, please give some time for an update on his projections, but until then, know this– he’s the real deal.

Nobody can possibly be the next Bobby Orr for Boston, since there’s only one Bobby Orr after all, but McAvoy likes to move the puck like Orr once did for the Bruins in the late 1960s and 1970s. And McAvoy’s got a tough element to his game too, like legendary Bruins defenseman, Eddie Shore, McAvoy can hit.

Postma is mainly an afterthought, but provides much needed depth for the long run.

Brandon Carlo looks to make an impact in his sophomore season and should continue to absorb any and all knowledge from 40-year-old captain, Zdeno Chara, as a shut-down pair. Yes, Chara is still a good defenseman. He’ll max out around 40 points this season with Carlo carrying more weight and the Bruins offense doing their part in keeping the puck out of the defensive zone to begin with.

Meanwhile, Torey Krug should an average year with 10 goals and 35 assists (45 points). Even an average year for Krug is still a better year than most defensemen.

And in other news, Tuukka Rask is still the number one goaltender for obvious reasons. He’s good.

More on Boston’s goalies as a whole in later posts throughout the season.

For now, Bruce Cassidy‘s Bruins are ready to fly– mostly because of Cassidy’s coaching style that emphasizes going full throttle all the time and not because bears have sprouted wings or anything.

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Boston Bruins 2017-2018 Season Preview

Unknown-7Boston Bruins

44-31-7, 95 points, 3rd in the Atlantic Division

Eliminated in the First Round by Ottawa

Additions: F Kenny Agostino, D Paul Postma, F Teddy Purcell (PTO), F Jordan Szwarz

Subtractions: D Linus Arnesson (signed with Örebro HK, SHL),  D Chris Casto (signed with VGK), F Colton Hargrove (signed with Providence Bruins, AHL), F Jimmy Hayes (signed a PTO with NJ after being bought out by BOS), F Brian Ferlin (signed with EDM), D Alex Grant (signed with MIN), D Colin Miller (claimed by VGK at the Expansion Draft), F Dominic Moore (signed with TOR), D Joe Morrow (signed with MTL), F Tyler Randell (signed with OTT), F Zac Rinaldo (signed with ARI), F Drew Stafford (signed with NJ)

Still Unsigned: D John-Michael Liles

Offseason Analysis: The last branches of the Tyler Seguin trade wilted this offseason for the Boston Bruins after defenseman, Joe Morrow, was not tendered a qualifying offer, therefore making him an unrestricted free agent (who ended up signing with the enemy, the Montreal Canadiens– reuniting with head coach, Claude Julien), and forward, Jimmy Hayes, was the victim of a buyout entering the final year of his contract (and now has a PTO with the New Jersey Devils).

Morrow, of course, was part of the original acquisition for Seguin, while Hayes came along after the Bruins flipped Reilly Smith (along with the contract of Marc Savard) to the Florida Panthers in the 2015 offseason.

But none of that matters now. The Seguin deal was done and over with the moment it happened.

Regardless of the debate surrounding whether it was the worst move or not by the organization, one thing is clear– the current rendition of the Boston Bruins are Don Sweeney‘s Boston Bruins. Let’s move on from the Peter Chiarelli Era highs and lows.

These Bruins have something to prove and are ready to show it.

Whether things go their way all comes down to the way the puck bounces.

Forwards Austin Czarnik and Tim Schaller were re-signed this offseason. Czarnik’s transition to the NHL proved helpful to the organization in times of automatic depth necessity (injury) and Schaller surpassed all previous expectations in a breakout season (seven goals, seven assists in 59 games played).

Alas, the words “breakout season” are intrinsically connected to the words “sample size”, as Schaller had only played 35 career games in two seasons with the Buffalo Sabres (amassing 2-3-5 totals from 2014-2016) as a bottom-six forward.

With Sean Kuraly‘s postseason emergence as the double overtime hero in Game 5 of the Bruins First Round Atlantic Division matchup with the Ottawa Senators in Boston’s short-lived 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs run, Czarnik’s got some competition for a spot on the fourth line.

But enough about the “glue guys” for a moment. Let’s turn our attention to David Pastrnak, shall we?

The 70-point scorer last season reached the end of his entry-level contract on July 1st and became a restricted free agent without arbitration rights.

After watching fellow young and talented scorers, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl receive massive pay raises, the 21-year-old winger from the Czech Republic was left wondering just how high his stock could go.

Agent, J.P. Barry, kept the hockey world on edge, as Pastrnak was reported to have considered a venture to the KHL if no common ground with the Bruins could be found, after NHL Network analyst, Brian Lawton, had already scared diehard Boston fans by surmising that Pastrnak would likely be traded.

Fans around the league thought they’d seen this before with Boston (remember Phil Kessel or Dougie Hamilton? Yeah, those guys were also represented by Barry during their tumultuous fallouts with the Bruins).

But analysts and fans league-wide were wrong. Kind of.

They had seen something just like this before– except it was with Torey Krug and Reilly Smith.

Krug and Smith had held out all summer long in 2014, coming off of their then-best career seasons, on the heels of a President’s Trophy winning 2013-2014 Bruins squad. They were RFAs, they were young and they were looking to get paid.

Deals sometimes take time and their extension negotiations caused them to miss the first day of training camp in September 2014.

Enter David Pastrnak and the 2017 offseason.

Boston’s best scorer on the same line as Boston’s other best scorer (Brad Marchand), together encompassing Boston’s best two-way forward (Patrice Bergeron) was due his lion’s share.

Tweets came from all sources and reporters drew the lines. Pastrnak and Sweeney were engaged in a standoff.

Except it was all just a numbers game.

McDavid’s 8-year, $100 million contract extension ($12.500 million cap hit) and Draisaitl’s  8-year, $68 million extension ($8.500 million cap hit) with Edmonton were worth aiming for, but when Bo Horvat struck a 6-year, $33 million deal ($5.500 million cap hit), Pastrnak’s amazing technicolor dreamcoat salary demands faltered a bit.

There was never any question as to whether Pastrnak was worth upwards of $7.000 almost $8.000 million a season, but trends in the market ultimately dictate one way or another how internal negotiations go.

So Sweeney pulled off an extremely club friendly $6.667 million cap hit on a 6-year, $40 million contract extension for Pastrnak. This, one season after extending Marchand for another eight years at only $6.125 million AAV, is some serious cap management at its best, almost impossible dream.

Especially when one considers that McDavid and Draisaitl are a costly $21 million-a-season for the next eight seasons in Edmonton (which is about 28% of the Oilers total player’s payroll).

Marchand and Pastrnak will cost the Bruins a combined $12.792 million-a-season for the next six years. Add Bergeron’s $6.875 million cap hit to that total and they’re still $1.333 million under 2/3’s of Edmonton’s best line ($19.667 million a year for Boston’s first line for the next six seasons, compared to the $21 million for McDavid and Draisaitl alone– Milan Lucic’s current cap hit is $6.000 million, if you were wondering).

Sweeney’s commitment to the core in Boston and letting his prospects develop may pan out this season with a longer run than last season’s First Round exit.

Adding Anders Bjork to the mix and a full season of Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson, as well as Charlie McAvoy, is sure to make this year’s Bruins team a fun one to watch.

It’s not about the main additions of Kenny Agostino and Paul Postma to the black and gold, but rather how far will the kids go?

They’re not the young, talented, and once-in-a-generation skillful Toronto Maple Leafs, per se, but Bruce Cassidy’s Bruins might be able to skate with them this season.

Offseason Grade: B

Grading the 2017 offseason for the Bruins wasn’t contingent upon re-signing David Pastrnak or adding a top-notch *cough cough overpaid because of a lack of available good free agents* free agent– it involved a thoughtfully calculated formula of “did they do anything stupid?” and “did they continue to make a commitment to their youth infused core, moving forward?” (the answers, of course, are “no” and “yes”– don’t be a dummy, trust Don Sweeney on this one, for once).

Extra credit for not shelling out $6 million on an over 30-year-old forward for the next five or six years (maybe David Backes will rebound this season– hopefully). Don’t stray from the formula (they didn’t).

Stanley Cup Playoffs: First Round – April 23

For at least the first round of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the authors at Down the Frozen River present a rapid recap of all of the night’s action. Tonight’s featured writers are Connor Keith and Nick Lanciani.

 

 

 

 

 

Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins – Game 6

By: Nick Lanciani

The Ottawa Senators came back in Game 6 to eliminate the Boston Bruins from 2017 Stanley Cup Playoff competition with a 3-2 victory in overtime on road ice at TD Garden on Sunday. Clarke MacArthur had the game-winning power play goal to end the series.

Third Star of the game and Senator’s goaltender, Craig Anderson, made 28 saves on 30 shots faced for a .933 save percentage in the win, while Boston’s Tuukka Rask made 26 saves on 29 shots against for an .897 SV% in the loss.

After killing off three consecutive delay of game penalties for sending the puck over the glass, the Bruins had their first power play opportunity of the afternoon after Ottawa forward, Mark Stone, tripped Sean Kuraly as he was exiting the defensive zone.

On the ensuing power play, Brad Marchand faked a shot and slid a pass over to Drew Stafford (2) who went high with a slap shot, beating Anderson on the blocker side, to give Boston a 1-0 lead at 18:13 of the 1st period. Marchand (2) and Charlie McAvoy (3) recorded the assists on Stafford’s goal.

In an incredible display of goaltending, Rask denied Stone on a breakaway and follow up shot with about 15 seconds left in the period after David Pastrnak failed to connect on a pass to a mid-line change Bruins defense.

McAvoy was sent to the box early in the 2nd period for tripping Senators forward, Tommy Wingels in a manner similar to how Ottawa defenseman, Chris Wideman, injured Bruins forward, David Krejci in Game 5 with a knee-on-knee collision. Wideman’s play was not penalized, unlike McAvoy’s.

While on the power play, Bobby Ryan (4) tied the game, 1-1, 3:26 into the 2nd period on a redirected slap shot from Derick Brassard. Brassard (5) and Erik Karlsson (6) were credited with the primary and secondary assists on Ryan’s power play goal.

Past the halfway mark in the 2nd period, Kyle Turris (1) received a pass from Ryan Dzingel and unleashed an absolute laser of a wrist shot that found the back of the net. Dzingel (1) had the only assist on Turris’s goal, which made it 2-1 Ottawa.

Trailing 2-1 early in the 3rd period, Boston caught Ottawa in a slow line change, which resulted in a quick rush from Colin Miller to Marchand, who fired a shot at Anderson, producing a rebound. Patrice Bergeron (2) was on the doorstep and scored on the rebound from the left side of the crease, having tapped the trickling puck into the twine while Anderson sprawled to recover.

Marchand (3) and Miller (1) were given the helpers on the play and the Bruins tied the game, 2-2.

For the fourth time in the series, overtime was necessary to determine a game winner.

Pastrnak was sent to the box for tying up MacArthur on a Senators rush with 14:06 to go in the overtime period.

MacArthur (2) ended the series on the ensuing power play, scoring Ottawa’s second power play goal of the afternoon at 6:30 of overtime. Ryan (3) and Brassard (6) notched the assists on the game winning goal.

Sunday’s game marked the first time in Senators franchise history that they were involved in four overtime games in a playoff series. Additionally, all six games in the series were decided by one goal.

Per the NHL’s PR department, 17 out of 41 First Round games (41.5%) have required overtime in this year’s postseason, which ties the record for an opening round. In 2013, 17 out of 47 games (36.2%) required overtime in the Conference Quarterfinals.

Of note, Ottawa had three shots on goal in the 3rd period, while Boston recorded 12 shots on net in the last twenty minutes of regulation. In overtime, the Senators had six shots on goal, while the Bruins failed to record a shot on net.

The Senators advance to the Second Round of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs and will face the New York Rangers at the Canadian Tire Centre in Games 1 and 2, as Ottawa will have home ice in the series.

The first contest of the series will take place Thursday at 7 p.m. Eastern time. American viewers can watch the game on CNBC, while Canadian residents will be serviced by both CBC and TVAS.

 

Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs – Game 6

By: Connor Keith

On the backs of Braden Holtby and Marcus Johansson, the Capitals beat in overtime Toronto 2-1 at the Air Canada Centre Sunday night to advance to the Eastern Conference Semifinals for the third-straight year.

Only 6:31 of extra time was required before Washington made its move. The play started in the far face-off circle in front of Frederik Andersen. Evgeny Kuznetsov won the scrum by kicking the puck back to John Carlson at the far point. The defenseman shoved the puck down the far boards to Justin Williams, who fired a shot a slap shot from the top of the face-off circle. That attempt never reached the waiting netminder because it was intercepted by Johansson, who redirected the puck beyond his reach to the near post.

It’s only fitting this contest went to overtime, as all but Game 4 of this series required post-regulation hockey to determine a winner. In fact, overtime has been a theme throughout the 2017 playoffs so far. In addition to being the first time the Caps played five overtime games in a single playoff series, this was the 18th match to require extra time – an NHL record for a single round.

This game was a true goaltending treat. No matter how hard each offense tried, it simply could not register a goal. In all, the Capitals fired 36 shots at Andersen (94.4%) and Toronto 37 at Holtby (97.4%) over the course of the game, but they both answered the bell on all but three combined times.

Both regulation tallies were struck in the third period. The scoreless draw survived 47:45 before being snapped by Auston Matthews (Morgan Rielly and Zach Hyman) with a wrist shot from the slot. The Maple Leafs didn’t get to celebrate their lead long though, as Johansson (Lars Eller and Brooks Orpik) buried a wrister of his own only 5:06 later to level the knot at one-all and force the eventual overtime.

Much of the reason neither club could find a goal for so long was due to the very disciplined play by both sides.  Only five penalties were recorded in the entire game to yield what proved to be effectively one power play – an opportunity for Washington due to William Nylander holding Nicklas Backstrom.

Technically, the Leafs did earn a man-advantage in the first period when Johansson was caught holding Nylander, but Tyler Bozak‘s hi-stick against Carlson negated that power play only 22 seconds into the opportunity.

Nazem Kadri and T.J. Oshie were sent to the box simultaneously for roughing with 47 seconds remaining in regulation for the final two infractions.

With their victory, the Capitals will host the Pittsburgh Penguins at the Verizon Center for Games 1 and 2 of their Eastern Conference Semifinals matchup. It will be their second-straight meeting in the second round and their fourth since the turn of the millennium.

Game 1 drops the puck at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time on Thursday. Residents of the United States can watch the game on NBCSN, while interested Canadians will be serviced by both SN and TVAS.

This will be the 10th time the Capitals and Penguins have squared off in the postseason, but it’s been a lopsided affair in the past. Pittsburgh has won all but one of the previous series and has advanced to the next round six straight times at the Caps’ expense. Washington’s only time besting the Pens was in the 1994 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, winning four games to two, before falling in the conference semifinals to the New York Rangers, the eventual Stanley Cup Champions.

Stanley Cup Playoffs: First Round- April 21

For at least the first round of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the authors at Down the Frozen River present a rapid recap of all of the night’s action. Tonight’s featured writers are Connor Keith and Nick Lanciani.

UnknownWashington Capitals Logo

Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals – Game 5

By: Connor Keith

First Star of the Game Justin Williams proved he’s more than Mr. Game 7 by burying a wrist shot only 1:04 into overtime to lead Washington to a 2-1 victory over the Maple Leafs at the Verizon Center, which pulls it within a win of a meeting with the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Eastern Semifinals.

The play started with a face-off in the Capitals’ defensive zone. Few were better in this game at the dot than Jay Beagle, and he proved that by winning what proved to be the final scrum of the contest. Matt Niskanen ended up with the puck and advanced it to the red line before dumping it into the Caps’ attacking third. Marcus Johansson was the first reach the puck behind Third Star Frederik Andersen’s net and he immediately passed to Evgeny Kuznetsov between the near face-off circle and the goal line. The Russian one-touched a centering pass for a crashing Williams, who slammed home his shot from the deep slot between Andersen’s wickets.

As evidenced by the score, this was a very defensive matchup following Wednesday’s 5-4 thrilling Game 4. Second Star Braden Holtby faced only 25 shots and saved 24 (96%) for the victory, while Andersen rejected all but two of the 28 shots (92.9%) that reached his crease.

Part of the reason for the low shot totals was actual defensive play, as evidenced by John Carlson’s five shot blocks and William Nylander’s three takeaways – both game-highs. The other was simply all the penalties in the second period that slowed the game down. A total of 22 penalty minutes were served in this game, led by Tom Wilson’s eight.

Usually when it’s said that an athlete plays like a man possessed, it’s a good thing. Wilson did, but he was border-line insane. He received four penalties over the course of the game – including three in the middle frame.

Then again, this situation is not that simple. The reason Wilson and the Capitals were so angry is due to a check by Nazem Kadri that sent Alex Ovechkin violently crashing to the ice with 2:28 remaining in the first period. Though Kadri did serve two minutes in the penalty box for tripping, Washington made sure to remind the entire Leafs team what happens when they try to hurt its star.

And don’t be alarmed Capitals fans: Ovechkin returned to the ice for the second period.

Speaking of Kadri’s tripping penalty, it is that power play opportunity that yielded Washington’s regulation tally. T.J. Oshie (Nicklas Backstrom and Kevin Shattenkirk) provided the goal with 105 seconds remaining in the opening frame. Toronto answered only 7:45 later when Auston Matthews (Nylander and Zach Hyman) buried a wrister at the six-minute mark of the second.

Game 6 will take place at the Air Canada Centre at 7 p.m. Eastern time this Sunday. Americans will be able to view the Capitals’ first opportunity to clinch a 2017 semifinals berth on NBCSN, while Canadians can see if Toronto can force a Game 7 on SN or TVAS.

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Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators – Game 5

Sean Kuraly and the Boston Bruins stole Game 5 at Canadian Tire Centre, overcoming a 2-0 deficit to win 3-2 in double overtime, forcing a Game 6 against the Ottawa Senators on home ice at TD Garden on Sunday afternoon.

Bruins goaltender, Tuukka Rask made 41 saves on 43 shots faced for a .953 save percentage in 90:19 time on ice for the win, while Senators goalie, Craig Anderson made 36 saves on 39 shots against for a .923 SV% in the loss.

Mark Stone (1) started things off with a breakaway goal at 11:19 of the 1st period. Stone received a stretch pass from Mike Hoffman and brought the puck into the offensive zone, where he dangled past a sprawling Rask and flipped the puck in the net with a backhand. Hoffman (1) and Derick Brassard (4) assisted on the goal— Stone’s first of the 2017 postseason.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau (1) quickly gave Ottawa a 2-0 lead, 30 seconds into the 2nd period on yet another breakaway goal after both Boston defensemen were caught pressing in the neutral zone. Pageau’s goal beat Rask’s five-hole and was assisted by Viktor Stalberg (2) and Alexandre Burrows (1).

The Senators began to protect their two-goal lead with tactically smart possession, until David Pastrnak (2) received a pass from Brad Marchand and sent the puck behind Anderson to cut the lead in half 8:40 into the 2nd. Marchand (1) wrapped around the net on a pass from Patrice Bergeron (2) before delivering the puck to Pastrnak for the goal.

Late in the 2nd period, Kuraly (1) scored his first career NHL goal (and first career Stanley Cup Playoff goal, at that) on a fluke pay in which Kuraly received a pass behind the net from David Backes and bounced the puck off of Ottawa defenseman, Chris Wideman and into the goal. Regardless, Backes (2) and Joseph Morrow (1) collected the primary and secondary assists and the game was tied, 2-2 at 17:05 of the 2nd.

No goals were scored in the 3rd period, which meant that the next goal in the game would end it in sudden death overtime.

Boston thought they had scored on a play in which Kuraly moved in on Anderson on a breakaway and made incidental contact with the goaltender, as Noel Acciari found the loose puck and sent it to the twine. While their was no call immediately on the ice, the officials determined that there had been goaltender interference on the play, while the league in Toronto reviewed the play. The call on the ice was confirmed and thus, Boston had not ended it.

The Bruins then thought they had a chance for an automatic penalty shot moments later when Pageau collapsed on the puck behind Anderson in the crease, while batting the puck away from the goal line. Yet again, the officials on the ice saw it differently and assessed no penalty on the play.

In the long run, whether you had the Bruins having had two could have been goals already on the scoreboard, you technically wouldn’t have been wrong when Kuraly (2) ended it 10:19 into the second overtime. 

Charlie McAvoy shot the rubber biscuit from the point off of a face-off, which Backes deflected and through a short series of bounces, the unsuspecting Anderson was far enough out of position as Kuraly found the puck in the low slot. A quick backhander aimed at the gaping four-by-six frame was enough to end the game, 3-2 in favor of Boston.

Backes (3) and McAvoy (2) tabbed the assists on the game winning goal as Kuraly became the first Bruins rookie to score an overtime game winning goal since Matt Fraser did so in a 1-0 overtime victory on May 8, 2014 in Montreal.

In a game where David Krejci was forced out by virtue of a knee on knee collision with Senators defenseman Wideman, Kuraly came up big in his two-goal effort. Additionally, Kuraly was originally inserted in the lineup in place of Ottawa native, Ryan Spooner, who was a healthy scratch.

Boston’s interim head coach, Bruce Cassidy commented on Krejci’s status as day-to-day after the game and would not give any indication as to whether or not Spooner would be back in the lineup if Krejci is unavailable for Sunday’s matinee.

The Senators now lead the series 3-2 with Game 6 in Boston on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET. Viewers in the United States can tune in on NBC while Canadian fans can catch the action on Sportsnet or TVA Sports.

Boston Through 60 (2016-2017)

Raise your hand if you’ve been staying up late for the last week to watch Bruins games without having one sip of coffee to do so. Anyone? No? Just me. Okay then.

Anyway, here’s a look at the way things stand after 60 games (through Wednesday night’s action in Anaheim) for the Boston Bruins.

Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak are in the fight of their lives to lay claim to the status as the best goal scorer for the Bruins this season. Marchand is on track to edge Pastrnak in the scoring race this season with Boston with 72 points to Pastrnak’s 64. However, Pastrnak is apt to leading Marchand in goals scored at season’s end, as shown below.

Additionally, the line of Patrice Bergeron, Marchand and David Backes has shown signs of being like the days of Bergeron, Marchand and Mark Recchi at times. More statistical evaluation, as well as the eye test, will yield further analysis, but there’s something promising about the likes of Bergeron and Marchand working with the power forward who’s not afraid to go to the net (Backes) in the chemistry that seems natural.

David Krejci and Pastrnak have appeared to have found their own peanut butter and jelly in 21-year-old rookie Peter Cehlarik. Simply put, I wish we could get a full season of the 83-46-88 line.

Other bright spots include career years for Frank Vatrano and Torey Krug, as well as a tremendous offensive output for the usually goal scoring inept, Adam McQuaid— everything is relative, keep in mind.

On pace for three goals, McQuaid is in the midst of perhaps his most all around season as the guy who’s lovable in the locker room, will beat you up on the ice and knows and plays his role well enough to contribute when he can in a full 60 minute effort.

The continued transition from Claude Julien to Bruce Cassidy will show more results in the next 20 games, but as shown in the data so far, the Cassidy era Bruins will be better off at offensive production and efficiency.

After deciding on a backup (though Don Sweeney has indicated an interest in acquiring a backup at the trade deadline on March 1st, if available), the Bruins are rolling with Anton Khudobin playing behind Tuukka Rask.

Rask might end up appearing in 69 games this season, which, granted is better than 70+ games, is still not ideal for balancing work and play (or more appropriately, rest). He is still on pace for a GAA of 2.12 and a save percentage of .923. Both of which are impressive in light of the last couple of seasons.

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Boston Bruins Projections- Through game 60 of 82

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For comparison, here’s how the Bruins were projected to do at Game 0 of 82 (prior to the start of the 2016-2017 regular season):

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Boston Through 40 (2016-2017)

By: Nick Lanciani

In another rendition of my season long look at projected Boston Bruins stats, here’s how things are going through 40 games played (yes, I know, I’m a little late to posting this, but hey, life is kind of going on outside of the Internet, ya know).

Despite cooling off as of late, David Pastrnak is still on pace for a career year to remember in Boston. A slow year for Patrice Bergeron is still a lot better year than all of our years combined. Given the eye test as of late, Brad Marchand is waking up, despite what his 22-35-57 projected totals say.

Across the roster, the Bruins are dominating the Corsi for% game. The only problem is that they’re having a hard time converting immense offensive production and efficiency into goals. Additionally, plus-minus is not Boston’s best friend right now, despite having stellar nights in and out from Tuukka Rask in goal. While Rask has been outstanding, that whole “goals in, goals out” model doesn’t appear to be working for the skaters in front of him in goal differential and the like.

Boston’s rookie trio of Austin Czarnik, Anton Blidh and Brandon Carlo look to be contributors down the remaining stretch, but don’t look for their play to show up in the points column too much. Instead, take your eye off the puck, because that’s where they reside, setting up the big plays.

Finally, about the Bruins goalies…

Rask shouldn’t play upwards of 60 games, but if he has to, this year appears to be an acceptable year to do so.

Anton Khudobin was sent to Providence after having played thus far worse than he did in nine games last season with the Anaheim Ducks before being sent to San Diego.

With a few more games under his belt, Zane McIntyre should come into his own on the NHL level. Until then, the 10-0-0 goalie in the AHL so far this year is still looking for his first win in the NHL (which would certainly help my forecast function in Excel and allow me to say more).

Standard disclaimer:

“Keep in mind, every stat is based off of a player’s entire career and may not reflect well with the other stats projected for this current season (a.k.a. goals + assists might not equal the number of points shown in the points category), because again, each stat is forecasted individually.

Italics indicates a player currently with their respective AHL affiliate. Underlined player stats indicate a player on the IR (which, admittedly, I’ll do my best to keep up with, but might not have perfect every time, so forgive me if I mistakenly label an injury or fail to label one entirely).”

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Boston Bruins Projections- Through game 40 of 82

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For comparison, here’s how the Bruins were projected to do at Game 0 of 82 (prior to the start of the 2016-2017 regular season):

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*I keep saying I’m going to get around to projecting stats for the Arizona Coyotes and I really do mean it. These things take some time by hand, so please forgive me. It’ll probably be some time soon(ish).*

 

Boston Through 20

By: Nick Lanciani

Hey guys, below you’ll see a look at my current projections for Boston Bruins skaters and goaltenders through 20 games into the season. Compared with the projections entering this season, David Pastrnak is a bright spot for the Bruins, Patrice Bergeron is off to a slow start (and that will affect his season totals) and well, they’re a team that’s capable of being the team that they currently are (outside of a playoff spot).

If you’re big into plus-minus, then you might want to look away from my Boston projections for their remaining 62 games (okay 61 now technically, with their loss to Calgary on Friday night, but that game was not included in any of my calculations).

I’ll have an updated look at how the B’s are progressing through 40 games played when the time comes. Likewise, I’ll have a look at the Arizona Coyotes through 20 games, hopefully in the next few days (if not, it’s because I’m busy presenting my Corsi capstone project— wish me luck, I guess).

And as I always write:

“Keep in mind, every stat is based off of a player’s entire career and may not reflect well with the other stats projected for this current season (a.k.a. goals + assists might not equal the number of points shown in the points category), because again, each stat is forecasted individually.

Italics indicates a player currently with their respective AHL affiliate. Underlined player stats indicate a player on the IR (which, admittedly, I’ll do my best to keep up with, but might not have perfect every time, so forgive me if I mistakenly label an injury or fail to label one entirely).”

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Boston Bruins Projections- Through game 20 of 82

Bruins forwards

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Bruins goalies

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Corsi for% projections for Boston roster skaters

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For comparison, here’s how the Bruins were projected to do at Game 0 of 82 (prior to the start of the 2016-2017 regular season):

 

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