Down the Frozen River

Tag: Scrivens

  • February 23 – Day 135 – Cinderella on ice

    Enjoy your last Friday before the NHL trade deadline! Hopefully your boss doesn’t trade you across the country this weekend.

    We start the day in South Korea at the Olympics, as there’s one remaining semifinal in the men’s tournament to be played. Dropping the puck at 7:10 a.m. Eastern time, Canada and Germany will be squaring off for their chance to qualify for the gold medal game.

    Back in the lands of the NHL, we have five games on the NHL schedule – one of which I’ll be in attendance at. The action starts at 7 p.m. with Minnesota at the New York Rangers (NHLN), followed half an hour later by Pittsburgh at Carolina (TVAS). Staggered starts seems to be the theme tonight, as Winnipeg at St. Louis is slated to start at 8 p.m., while San Jose at Chicago waits 30 minutes before dropping the puck. Unfortunately, Vancouver at Vegas bucks our half-hour trend, as that tilt waits until 10:30 p.m. before closing out the night’s action. All times Eastern.

    What games have my attention? I thought you’d never ask!

    • Canada vs. Germany: The chance to play for a gold medal is tantalizingly close for these teams, but only one will get the chance to compete for the most desired prize.
    • Pittsburgh at Carolina: This game literally will have my attention since it will be happening right in front of me. Watch for me and my dad on TVAS, Canadians!

    While it would be fun to do a preview of the game I’ll be at, I’m sure it goes without saying that the Olympic semifinal is far more pressing.

     

    Not to give away my pick, but the clear favorite in this game is 3-0-1-0 Canada. The Canadians took second place in Group A after tilts against Switzerland (5-1), the Czech Republic (3-2 shootout loss) and South Korea (4-0), followed by beating Finland in a tight 1-0 quarterfinals matchup.

    Entering semifinal play (as will be the case for all statistical rankings in this preview), no team has had more success on the defensive end than Team Canada. Not only is their defense allowing a third-best 22.5 shots against per game (second-best among the four semifinalists), but G Ben Scrivens has also been solid, posting a .929 save percentage for a 1.61 GAA.

    Mix those impressive together and you get a team that has allowed only one goal against per game, tops in South Korea.

    Of course, Team Canada has more to offer than simply a strong defense. The team with the leafs on their sweaters have averaged an impressive three goals per game, the (t)third-most of any team at the Olympic Games and (t)second among the semifinalists.

    While an impressive 15 different Canadians have found their way onto the scorecard, two NHL veterans have stood above the rest: D Maxim Noreau (2-3-5 totals) and F Derek Roy (0-5-5). Both are averaging more than a point per game, and pairing their success with production from almost every skater makes every Canadian line a threat to score.

    Meanwhile, 0-3-0-2 Germany is the Cinderella story of this Olympic tournament, as it finished a lowly third place in Group C after tilts against Finland (5-2 loss), Sweden (1-0 loss) and Norway (2-1 SO).

    However, the group stage has no bearing on how a team can perform in the playoffs, and Head Coach Marco Sturm has done an excellent job of getting his team to believe just that. Träger der Adler – The Eagle Carriers – have beaten Switzerland (2-1 OT) and Sweden (4-3 OT) – the tournament’s top seed following the group stage – to qualify for the semifinals and ensure the chance to compete for their first Olympic medal since West Germany took bronze at the 1976 Games in Innsbruck, Austria.

    Similar to Team Canada, Germany’s expertise in its first five games has been on the defensive end. The Eagle Carriers’ defense has allowed 26 shots against per game (sixth-worst among all Olympic teams, worst of the semifinalists), a manageable number for G Danny aus den Birken who’s posted a .904 save percentage and 2.43 GAA.

    Putting those numbers together, the Germans have allowed only 2.2 goals against per game, the sixth-worst of any team in the Olympics and worst of the four semifinalists.

    On the offensive end, the similarities in style between the Canadians and Germans continue, as 15 different skaters have registered at least a point. Of those, F Patrick Hager has been their biggest star with his team-leading 2-2-4 totals.

    The Germans and Canadians last tangled on May 18, 2017 at the 2017 IIHF World Championships in Cologne, Germany. Canada’s defense was on full display in that game, limiting the Germans to only 20 shots on goal while the Canadians fired a whopping 50 at G Philipp Grubauer of the Washington Capitals. Grubauer performed well, but Winnipeg’s F Mark Scheifele and Carolina’s F Jeff Skinner were able to sneak a goal apiece past him to earn a slim 2-1 quarterfinals victory for Canada (Yannic Seidenberg scored Germany’s lone goal with 6:39 remaining in regulation) en route to a silver medal.

    You’ll notice all but one player listed in that recap has an NHL team associated with his name. The fact that those players – and not Seidenberg – are preoccupied in North America is a major story in this game.

    While doing our Olympic preview in a recent DtFR podcast, I pointed out that Germany has achieved a #8 world ranking from the IIHF without the luxury of multiple players from the top professional league in the world.

    It is my opinion that this fact, which is usually to the Germans’ detriment, has become an advantage.

    How could that be?

    All of Team USA and Team Canada’s biggest stars are stuck in the NHL. The same can be said for a majority of the best Russians, Finns and Swedes. Meanwhile, Germany (and, perhaps unsurprisingly, fellow semifinalist Czech Republic) has fielded almost entirely its usual roster. Undoubtedly, that consistency and the chemistry associated with it is a major reason for Germany’s run to the semifinalists.

    But is that continuity enough to beat the Canadians?

    I certainly think this is going to be the more competitive of the two semifinal matchups, but the talent on Canada’s roster looks like it still exceeds that of the Germans. As such, I think Canada squeaks by Germany for the chance to win its third-consecutive gold.

  • January 22 – Day 107 – Bernier bridges

    With the All-Star Break on the horizon, the NHL is loading up on games all week. This Monday, we have a half-dozen contests to choose from.

    As it usually does, the action starts at 7 p.m. with two tilts (Colorado at Toronto [TVAS] and Detroit at New Jersey [SN]), followed an hour later by Ottawa at Minnesota (RDS). Tampa Bay at Chicago (NBCSN) gets underway at 8:30 p.m., while tonight’s co-nightcaps – Buffalo at Calgary and the New York Islanders at Arizona – wait until 9 p.m. before closing out the evening. All times Eastern.

    I’d highlighted two of tonight’s games before the season started…

    • Colorado at Toronto: With 13-9-2 G Semyon Varlamov still on injured reserve, 13-7-1 G Jonathan Bernier is lined up for his first start in Toronto since April 4, 2016 when he was a member of the Maple Leafs.
    • Buffalo at Calgary: 1-8-3 G Chad Johnson is also returning to his former home stadium, but he’s more likely to draw the start tomorrow in Edmonton.

    Adding in Bernier’s return to The Queen City, there’s no doubt that the Avs’ lone visit of the season to Air Canada Centre (barring a Stanley Cup Finals meeting) will be the best matchup of the day!

     

    Amateur drafting is hard, and that’s made especially known when netminders are taken as early as Bernier. Since 2000, only 10 goalies have gone in the top 11 picks, and only two of those (Marc-Andre Fleury and Carey Price) are regular starters.

    Enter Bernier, the 11th-overall pick by Los Angeles in the 2006 NHL Entry Draft, and current starter – by default – for the Avs.

    To say Bernier was a bust for the Kings is slightly unfair. After all, he didn’t start his first NHL game until the 2007-’08 season, the same year G Jonathan Quick made his NHL debut. A year later, Quick had already assumed starting duties for the Kings while Bernier was still spending his time as Manchester’s starter in the AHL.

    Benier would eventually ascend to the role of Quick’s backup, but the American would further cement his position as Los Angeles’ starter with his Stanley Cup victory in 2012. Though Bernier’s name is also inscribed alongside the rest of those Kings, he must have known his time with the club was running out.

    Following the 2012-’13 season, Bernier was traded to Toronto in exchange for RW Matt Frattin, G Ben Scrivens and a second-round pick in the 2015 draft that eventually ended up back in the hands of the Leafs after being involved in another trade between the Kings and Blue Jackets.

    Draft season is fun that way.

    Bernier brought with him a .912 save percentage and 2.36 GAA in 62 career NHL games and was thrown into a competition with G James Reimer for Toronto’s starting job for the 2013-’14 season. Bernier certainly won the gig, as he earned 49 starts (17 more than Reimer) and posted a superior .922 save percentage and 2.7 GAA. He ended up starting 55 games during the the following campaign, but watched his numbers drop to .912 and 2.87.

    Of course, the 2013-’14, 2014-’15 and 2015-’16 Maple Leafs are never going to go down in history as the best teams Toronto has put on the ice (I mean, they got C Auston Matthews for a reason). Bernier was effectively the Leafs’ lone line of defense, and I would argue that he performed fairly well given the circumstances. In all, he posted a .915 save percentage and 2.81 GAA during his three seasons in Toronto even though he faced an average of 33.12 shots per start.

    However, Bernier once again became expendable when the Leafs traded for G Frederik Andersen‘s rights. Andersen had enjoyed a .914 save percentage and 2.38 GAA in his lone season as the Ducks’ starter, but he was relegated to the backup role when G John Gibson assumed the starting position in 2015-’16.

    In an odd twist of fate, Bernier was traded to Anaheim to fill Andersen’s vacated backup spot 18 days after the Maple Leafs traded for the former Duck. He started 33 games on the final year of his two-year, $8.3 million contract, earning a 21-7-4 record on a .915 save percentage and 2.5 GAA.

    After not being offered another contract by Anaheim this offseason – not to mention G Ryan Miller signing with the squad – Bernier signed a one-year, $2.75 million deal with the Avalanche to backup Varlamov.

    To put things bluntly, Bernier had been performing terribly in his limited time this season. Before the calendar turned to 2018, Bernier had posted a miserable .898 save percentage and 3.12 GAA in 14 starts for a 6-7-1 record.

    But then Varlamov got injured in Colorado’s first game of the new year – a scary matchup against the mighty Winnipeg Jets. He strained his groin to land himself on injured reserve, where he’s likely to remain until February.

    Considering how Bernier had performed all season, it seemed Colorado’s then-flailing season was likely headed even further down the tubes. Instead, the backup led the Avs to a victory over those Jets. And then shutout the Blue Jackets. And then he beat the Wild, Stars, Ducks, Sharks and Rangers too.

    Instead of leading Colorado towards a top-five draft pick, he’s actually sparked a nine-game winning streak to propel the 26-16-3 Avs into the second wild card. During the eight games he’s responsible for, he’s managed an incredible .958 save percentage and 1.47 GAA.

    Huh. Maybe he was worth the 11th-overall pick after all.

    And just in case anyone would like to argue that F Nathan MacKinnon, who’s posted 8-11-19 totals during this run, has been the biggest reason for the Avs’ nine-game winning streak, I’d like to direct them to Colorado’s defense.

    To call the Avalanche’s defensive corps Swiss cheese would be an insult to Roger Federer’s (who’s killing it at the Australian Open right now, by the way) home land. The Avs’ blue line has allowed a whopping 34.89 shots against-per-game during this run, the fifth-worst average in the NHL since December 29.

    It’s that statistic that makes Bernier’s performance even more special. Nothing has been easy for him during this month-long hot streak, but he’s risen to the challenge exactly 300 times, allowing only 14 goals on 314 shots against.

    Short of the Jets, Bernier may face his toughest task yet of his newfound starting role, as the 26-17-5 Maple Leafs – who sit in third place in the Atlantic Division – definitely know how to score the puck.

    Or, at least they usually do. On the season, the Leafs have averaged a seventh-best 3.1 goals per game. That effort has been led by Matthews, who tops the Toronto charts in goals (20) and points (35).

    However, that offense has dried up since January 4. Even though Toronto has posted a 3-1-3 record over its last seven tilts, it has averaged only 2.29 goals per game – the (t)fifth-worst mark in the league since then. Matthews is still posting goals (he’s scored three in his last seven games), but the rest of the squad simply cannot find the back of the net.

    The Leafs have already made their annual trip to Pepsi Center, and they almost came away with two points. However, F J.T. Compher‘s overtime winner gave Colorado the 4-3 victory on December 29, the first in the Avs’ run of nine-straight.

    Unless the Leafs can rediscover their offense, it’s hard to believe they have a shot at beating Colorado tonight.

    The San Jose Sharks absolutely steamrolled the Anaheim Ducks in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day, winning 6-2 at Honda Center.

    A good strategy on the offensive end is to score as many goals as the period’s number. That’s exactly what the Sharks did, scoring one goal in the first period, two in the second and three in the finale.

    As for the lone tally of the first, it was struck by Marc-Edouard Vlasic (Tomas Hertl and Justin Braun) on a wrist shot with 6:07 remaining in the frame.

    The attack continued in the second, as San Jose found its eventual game-winning marker before the Ducks were even on the scoreboard. Kevin Labanc (Joe Thornton and Timo Meier) set the score at 2-0 on a snap shot 3:38 into the period, followed 10:18 later by Third Star of the Game Mikkel Boedker‘s (Vlasic and Chris Tierney) deciding power play snapper.

    Brandon Montour was only four seconds away from completing his sentence for slashing Labanc, but Boedker decided to post his bail early. Taking advantage of Meier’s screening G John Gibson, Boedker scored his 100th NHL goal by sending his snapper from the right face-off circle past the netminder’s blocker to the far post.

    Rickard Rakell (Ryan Getzlaf and Adam Henrique) provided Anaheim a spark of life with 27 seconds remaining in the second period. With both Joel Ward (for tripping Montour) and Joe Pavelski (for slashing Cam Fowler) in the penalty box, he scored a wrister to pull the Ducks back within a 3-1 deficit.

    The comeback gained real life 1:47 into the third period when Getzlaf (Second Star Ondrej Kase and Rakell) buried a wrister to pull Anaheim back within a tally, but that hope was dashed only 60 seconds later when Thornton (Brent Burns and Logan Couture) scored a slap shot to return a two-goal advantage to San Jose. Boedker (Melker Karlsson) and Karlsson (Boedker and Tierney) both tacked on insurance goals in the remaining time to set the 6-2 final score.

    First Star G Aaron Dell earned his second victory in as many days by saving 33-of-35 shots faced (.943 save percentage), leaving the loss to Gibson, who saved 17-of-22 (.773). With 7:52 remaining in the game, Gibson was lifted in favor of G Ryan Miller, who saved three-of-four (.75) for no-decision.

    Road teams have earned points in four-consecutive contests in the DtFR Game of the Day series. However, the 59-35-13 hosts still have a dominating 21-point lead in our featured games.