Down the Frozen River

Tag: Scotia NHL North Division

  • 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs Second Round Preview: MassMutual NHL East Division

    2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs Second Round Preview: MassMutual NHL East Division

    Nobody’s perfect.

    Both in First Round prediction outcomes and in trying (and failing) to deliver predictions for each First Round series ahead of time.

    The short excuse is that the overlap of the 2020-21 regular season and the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs made it difficult to finish compiling stats, writing game recaps and subsequently writing previews for each series that hadn’t already started.

    Then it’s a matter of catching up.

    Plus there’s a few other projects being worked on right now that you’ll hopefully get to see soon.

    Granted, there’s a good chance that if you’re reading this it’s because 1) you’re somehow an oddly dedicated fan of my random musings, 2) you’ve accidentally stumbled upon this blog or 3) you’re a potential employer trying to get a read on if this guy is actually desirable.

    Anyway, the First Round of the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs is mostly over as only the Toronto Maple Leafs and Montréal Canadiens have yet to sort out who will be taking on the Winnipeg Jets in the Second Round of Scotia NHL North Division action.

    For now, let’s just keep it simple with the MassMutual NHL East Division on the docket for Saturday and the Discover NHL Central Division and Honda NHL West Division on the calendar for Sunday, then we’ll go from there.

    (3) Boston Bruins (33-16-7, 73 points) vs (4) New York Islanders (32-17-7, 71 points)

    Boston: 56 games played, .652 points percentage, 25 regulation wins.

    N.Y. Islanders: 56 games played, .634 points percentage, 24 regulation wins.

    The Boston Bruins eliminated the Washington Capitals in five games (4-1) in the First Round and are poised to be in command of home ice advantage in their Second Round series matchup with the New York Islanders by virtue of being the higher seed as both MassMutual NHL East Division First Round matchups technically resulted in upset victories by the “underdogs”.

    Sure, Boston has had a bit of recent playoff success riding the momentum of their last four consecutive seasons with at least one playoff series victory and New York improved to 5-1 all time against the Pittsburgh Penguins in a Stanley Cup Playoff series, but that’s besides the point.

    The Bruins won the Presidents’ Trophy in 2019-20, having recorded the league’s best regular season record at the time of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, well, officially being declared a pandemic and cutting last year’s regular season short.

    They entered 2020-21 as favorites to not only lead their division at season’s end, but contend for the Presidents’ Trophy in back-to-back seasons for the first time in franchise history.

    That… didn’t pan out, but it might actually be a benefit to the current roster to not be seen as the clear cut favorites on paper.

    To remind everyone that didn’t read the First Round preview for Boston, the Bruins were led by Brad Marchand (29-40–69 totals in 53 games played) in the regular season, with Patrice Bergeron (23-25–48 totals in 54 games) and David Pastrnak (20-28–48 totals in 48 games) rounding out the top-three scorers on the team.

    Through five games this postseason, the B’s look like they could be on the verge of something special as a plausible last hurrah for their current core with David Krejci and Tuukka Rask set to become unrestricted free agents at season’s end and Father Time™️ eventually going to become a factor and catch up with the ageless wonders that are Bergeron and Marchand.

    It’s likely that Rask will be back for another season or two to serve as a mentor for current backup goaltender, Jeremy Swayman, like how Tim Thomas played that role for the franchise’s all-time winningest goaltender in the regular season and playoffs.

    Or if you’re from outside the Boston market– think like what Pekka Rinne just did for the last two seasons in Nashville as Juuse Saros gradually took over as the starter for the Predators.

    Krejci, on the other hand, has a bit more of a clouded future.

    Bruins president, Cam Neely, told reporters earlier in the week that the organization has shelved talks of extensions with Rask and Krejci for after the postseason (a standard for the industry, especially with an expansion draft looming for the Seattle Kraken), but Neely was open to the idea of the two “one team” players spending their entire NHL careers in Boston.

    That said, there’s always the possibility for retirement for Krejci or that he might go spend a few seasons in Czech Republic while winding down the twilight of his professional playing days.

    None of that is relevant for the here and now, however.

    Right now, the Bruins are focused on getting past the Islanders in the Second Round– a team that’s given them a bit of an inconsistent ride to say the least this season.

    Boston dropped the first five games against New York, but won the last three meetings between the two clubs in the regular season.

    That doesn’t actually say as much as one would think, since the Capitals had more recent success as the season progressed against Boston.

    But then again, Washington did lose.

    It’s also not like the B’s didn’t get better as the season went on– especially since they added Taylor Hall, Curtis Lazar and Mike Reilly ahead of the trade deadline in April.

    Boston has a legitimate top-six forward group and interchangeable components that can get the job done in the bottom-six, as well as a defense that has a mix of youth and experience– sans Kevan Miller for Game 1, at least, as Miller is out with an upper body injury, though Jarred Tinordi did fine for a bottom-pairing role in Game 5 against Washington.

    Rask’s save percentage has gone up in each of his first five postseason games so far.

    Through five games in the 2021 postseason, Pastrnak leads the team in scoring with six points (two goals, four assists), while bona fide stallion , Charlie McAvoy, has five assists and Bergeron (3-1–4 totals in five games) round out the top-three in postseason production thus far.

    In the regular season, Rask led the way in the crease for the B’s with a 15-5-2 record in 24 games (24 starts), a 2.28 goals-against average and a .913 save percentage, as well as a pair of shutouts in that span.

    Jaroslav Halak started the season as Boston’s backup, but ended it as the third string netminder with a 9-6-4 record in 19 games (17 starts) for the Bruins with a 2.53 goals-against average, .905 save percentage and two shutouts in 2020-21.

    Swayman emerged as Rask and Halak spent time out of the lineup due to injury, as well as an extended stay in COVID protocol for the latter goaltender (perhaps affecting Halak’s performance as a result).

    But before Swayman amassed a 7-3-0 record in 10 games (10 starts), as well as a 1.50 goals-against average, a .945 save percentage and two shutouts, Dan Vladar made five appearances (all starts) and earned a 2-2-2-1 record to go along with a 3.40 goals-against average and an .886 save percentage.

    Don’t let Vladar’s numbers fool you, however, as one desperate start on the second night of a back-to-back against the Capitals sank otherwise decent stats for the projected backup to Swayman someday on Boston’s depth chart.

    In the postseason, Rask has put up a 4-1 record in five games with a 1.81 goals-against average and a .941 save percentage.

    So in other words, it’s midseason form for No. 40 for the black and gold.

    Gerry Cheevers has faith in Rask.

    At the other end of the rink, the Islanders utilized head coach, Barry Trotz’s, patented trap to stupefy Pittsburgh’s potent offense in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, while also appearing to not really have to do that much to beat Tristan Jarry in the crease in six games (4-2).

    This time we mean it. Nassau Live at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum is on its last legs.

    Next season, the Isles will be opening up their new home at UBS Arena in Elmont, New York– making the “long” trek from Uniondale, New York to their new address.

    Both TD Garden and the Coliseum are expected to have near full capacity crowds for the entirety of the series, so if you already couldn’t stand Boston and Long Island enough for some reason, expect the crowds to be as loud and as obnoxious as ever.

    That said, we could all use a good laugh and some release from the last year and a half of pain, grief and suffering. Hopefully the cheers and jeers do not veer into the distasteful.

    It is, after all, just a game.

    Anyway, the Islanders were led by Mathew Barzal (17-28–45 totals in 55 games) this season, while Josh Bailey (8-27–35 totals in 54 games), Brock Nelson (18-15–33 totals in 56 games) and Jordan Eberle (16-17–33 totals in 56 games) rounded out the top-three in team scoring in 2020-21.

    In the crease, Semyon Varlamov led the way with a 19-11-4 record in 36 games (35 starts), as well as a 2.04 goals-against average, a .929 save percentage and seven shutouts in the regular season.

    Ilya Sorokin was the backup netminder for New York and amassed a 13-6-3 record in 22 games (21 starts) and had a 2.17 goals-against average, a .918 save percentage and three shutouts in the process.

    Through six postseason games, Anthony Beauvillier (3-4–7 totals) and Jean-Gabriel Pageau (1-6–7 totals) are tied for the team lead in playoff scoring, while Bailey and Nelson rank tied for third on the roster with six points (three goals, three assists for each player).

    Varlamov’s gone 0-2 in two games (two starts) and has a 3.61 goals-against average, as well as a .903 save percentage, while Sorokin has taken over with the hot hands in net– amassing a 4-0 record in four games (four starts) and an equally impressive goal against average (1.95) and save percentage (.943) as Rask’s numbers for Boston thus far in the playoffs.

    Meanwhile, Isles captain Anders Lee remains out of the lineup with a lower body injury that ended his season after 27 games in 2020-21.

    These two teams are meeting for the third time in a series, with the Islanders holding a 2-0 all time record, having defeated the Bruins in five games (4-1) in the 1980 Quarterfinal and in six games (4-2) in the 1983 Wales Conference Final.

    Both times that New York defeated Boston, the Isles went on to win the Stanley Cup.

    In the 2020-21 regular season, however, the Bruins went 3-3-2 in eight games against New York, while the Islanders went 5-2-1 against Boston.

    New York outscored Boston, 21-18, in that span, though the Bruins held the advantage in total shots on goal over the course of their regular season series, 269-216.

    Stellar goaltending has been a constant for both teams, outside of the odd, 7-2, win for the Islanders on Feb. 25th against the B’s.

    The Bruins have Hall, the Islanders have Kyle Palmieri.

    Depth scoring is paramount, especially if New York’s trap can get to Boston’s first line as effective as they were against Pittsburgh’s first line.

    Bruins head coach, Bruce Cassidy, is a dynamic coach, however, while Trotz might continue to go back to the well even if it’s starting to run dry– simply out of the comfort and ease of familiarity.

    This series has all the makings of being a long, grueling battle that could see Boston victorious over the Islanders for the first time in the postseason in seven games when all is said and done.

    Regular season outcomes:

    1-0 NYI at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on Jan. 18th

    4-2 NYI at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on Feb. 13th

    7-2 NYI at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on Feb. 25th

    2-1 F/SO NYI at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on March 9th

    4-3 F/OT NYI at TD Garden on March 25th

    4-1 BOS at TD Garden on April 15th

    3-0 BOS at TD Garden on April 16th

    3-2 F/OT BOS at TD Garden on May 10th

    Schedule:

    5/29- Game 1 NYI @ BOS 8 PM ET on NBC, SN360, TVAS2

    5/31- Game 2 NYI @ BOS 7:30 PM ET on NBCSN, SN1, TVAS

    Games 3 and 4, as well as 5 through 7 (if necessary) have yet to be announced by the league at the time of this writing.

  • Habs force Game 6 to be played at home in front of limited capacity crowd

    Habs force Game 6 to be played at home in front of limited capacity crowd

    The Montréal Canadiens struck fast and early, led by three goals, nearly blew it and struck fast and early again in their, 4-3, overtime victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday in Game 5 of their 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs First Round matchup.

    Nick Suzuki capitalized on a 2-on-0 opportunity– scoring the game-winning goal about a minute into overtime– after the Leafs turned the puck over at the other end of the rink, sending an empty Scotiabank Arena home even quieter than they weren’t allowed to enter as the Canadiens forced a Game 6 in front of a limited capacity crowd at Bell Centre on Saturday.

    The Habs will have about 2,000 fans at their next game– marking a first for Canadian teams this season with the ongoing pandemic.

    Despite this, Toronto carries a 3-2 series lead into Montréal with the chance to eliminate the Canadiens on the road.

    Carey Price (2-3, 2.66 goals-against average, .919 save percentage in five games played) stopped 32 out of 35 shots faced in the win for the Habs.

    Leafs netminder, Jack Campbell (3-2, 1.61 goals-against average, .944 save percentage in five games played), made 26 saves on 30 shots against in the loss.

    Nick Foligno remained out of the lineup for Toronto, while Maple Leafs head coach, Sheldon Keefe, replaced Travis Dermott with Rasmus Sandin on defense.

    Toronto captain, John Tavares– sidelined by a concussion and a lower body injury– was in the building and watching his teammates from the press box.

    He also resumed skating earlier in the day, though is still considered “week-to-week” at this point.

    The Maple Leafs have not won a playoff series since 2004, and last beat Montréal in a playoff series in six games in the 1967 Stanley Cup Final (4-2).

    Joel Armia (1) gave Montréal a, 1-0, lead at 5:13 of the first period as Corey Perry’s forecheck in the attacking zone produced a turnover, leading to Armia scooping up the loose puck and elevating a shot over Campbell’s glove side for the game’s first goal.

    The Canadiens surged as a result of Wayne Simmonds ringing the crossbar about a minute prior in their own end and Armia’s first goal of the game subsequently.

    A few minutes later, Armia (2) had his second goal of the game while Campbell was lying on his back to extend the Habs’ lead to two-goals.

    Montréal worked the puck “D-to-D” along the point before sending a shot towards the slot where Eric Staal generated a rebound and Perry got a quick touch on an indirect short pass to Armia for the goal.

    Armia slid the rubber biscuit under Campbell’s leg as the Habs made it a, 2-0, game at 8:18 of the opening frame.

    Perry (2) and Staal (2) tallied the assists on the goal.

    After one period of action in Toronto, Montréal led, 2-0, on the scoreboard and, 14-8, in shots on goal.

    The Maple Leafs held the advantage in takeaways (5-3), while the Canadiens led in hits (20-15) and faceoff win percentage (62-39). Both teams had four blocked shots each and six giveaways aside.

    Neither team had seen any action on the power play entering the first intermission.

    Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2) made it, 3-0, for the Habs on an individual effort early in the middle frame after flipping the puck into the corner and taking it away from Sandin before stuffing the rubber biscuit around Campbell at 4:52 of the second period.

    Less than two minutes later, Zach Hyman (1) inadvertently tipped a shot past Price to cut Montréal’s lead from three goals to two.

    Mitchell Marner got Price to overcommit and flop out of position like a fish out of water outside the crease before banking the puck off of Tyler Toffoli before it wobbled and got a piece of Hyman for the goal as a mad scramble in front of the crease to bail out the Canadiens netminder swarmed.

    Marner (4) and Auston Matthews (3) had the assists on Hyman’s goal as the Maple Leafs trailed, 3-1, at 6:32 of the second period.

    Hyman later tripped Suzuki and presented the Habs with their first power play of the night on the first penalty of the game at 13:39.

    Montréal did not convert on the ensuing skater advantage, however.

    Through 40 minutes in Toronto, the Canadiens led, 3-1, on the scoreboard and, 23-19, in shots on goal, despite the Leafs holding an, 11-9, advantage in shots on net in the second period alone.

    The Maple Leafs also led in blocked shots (8-7), takeaways (9-4), giveaways (11-10) and faceoff win% (51-49), while the Habs held the advantage in hits (33-29).

    As Montréal had the only power play through two periods and failed to convert on the advantage, the Habs were 0/1, while the Leafs were still awaiting their first skater advantage.

    Brendan Gallagher cut a rut to the penalty box for interference at 4:41 of the third period and presented the Maple Leafs with their first power play of the night as a result.

    Though Toronto did not score on the skater advantage, they did take advantage of the vulnerable minute after special teams action as Jake Muzzin (1) sent a shot off the post and in from the point as net front traffic diminished Price’s vision of the shooter.

    Simmonds (1) and William Nylander (2) were credited with the assists on Muzzin’s first goal of the game as the Leafs pulled to within one and trailed Montréal, 3-2, at 6:52 of the third period.

    Midway through the final frame of regulation, the Maple Leafs tied it, 3-3, on another goal from Muzzin (2)– this time on a redirection through Price’s five-hole thanks to an initial shot pass from Alex Galchenyuk at 11:54.

    Galchenyuk (3) and Nylander (3) had the assists on Muzzin’s second goal of the night as Toronto answered Montréal’s three-goal lead with three unanswered goals of their own.

    After regulation, the score was tied, 3-3, and the Maple Leafs had a, 35-29, advantage in shots on goal, including a, 16-6, advantage in the third period alone.

    Toronto also held the advantage in blocked shots (12-9), takeaways (11-8) and giveaways (14-12), while Montréal led in hits (44-38) and faceoff win% (51-49).

    As there were no penalties called in overtime, both teams went 0/1 on the power play in Game 5.

    Less than a minute into the extra frame Galchenyuk turned the puck over in the attacking zone, leading to a fast breakout the other way for the Canadiens, whereby Suzuki and Cole Caufield ended up on a 2-on-0 entering Montréal’s attacking zone.

    Suzuki (2) passed the puck to Caufield for a quick give-and-go before one-timing the puck past Campbell for the game-winning goal 59 seconds into overtime.

    Caufield (1) recorded the only assist– his first career Stanley Cup Playoff point– on Suzuki’s goal as the Habs defeated the Maple Leafs, 4-3, in overtime in Game 5.

    The Canadiens finished the night with the advantage in shots on goal in overtime alone, 1-0, as well as the lead in hits (44-38) and faceoff win% (52-48), while Toronto wrapped up Thursday night leading in shots on goal (35-30), blocked shots (12-10) and giveaways (15-12).

    The Habs trail in the series 3-2 heading back home for Game 6 at Bell Centre in Montréal. Puck drop is scheduled for Saturday night at 7:30 p.m. ET and viewers in the United States can catch the action on NBCSN, while those in Canada can choose from CBC, SN or TVAS.

  • Habs steal Game 1 on the road, 2-1, Leafs lose Tavares to injury

    Habs steal Game 1 on the road, 2-1, Leafs lose Tavares to injury

    Paul Byron scored the game-winning goal midway through the third period as the Montréal Canadiens beat the Toronto Maple Leafs, 2-1, on the road at Scotiabank Arena in Game 1 of their 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs First Round matchup on Thursday.

    Maple Leafs captain, John Tavares, suffered an upper body injury and was hospitalized as a result of a freak accident about midway into the first period.

    Ben Chiarot hit Tavares in the open ice as Tavares was entering the neutral zone, before Corey Perry inadvertently clipped Tavares in the head as the Leafs forward’s body bounced along the ice like a rag-doll from Chiarot’s initial check.

    Perry had leapt to avoid making a major collision with Tavares, but everything had happened so quickly that Perry might have made things worse– if not just as bad as they would’ve been had he not attempted to bail out with nowhere else to go at the last second.

    Toronto’s medical staff assisted Tavares– being deliberate and careful with every move due to the immediate uncertainty of the severity of Tavares’ injury.

    The Leafs captain tried to get up and nearly fell backwards head first onto the ice if it weren’t for Toronto’s trainers grabbing hold of their injured player.

    As Tavares was being placed on the stretcher, visibly shaken shots of Auston Matthews, Mitchell Marner, Joe Thornton, other teammates and the Canadiens bench were interspersed on the national broadcast with too many cuts of the hit and subsequent second impact on replay.

    Tavares gave his teammates a thumbs up as he was stretchered off the ice and was “communicating well,” at a local hospital according to Maple Leafs head coach, Sheldon Keefe, after the game. His initial tests were clear.

    Perry and Tavares are good friends and were teammates on Canada’s national team several times over their careers and the Habs forward wished Tavares well with a pat as Tavares was stretchered off the ice and thoughtful remarks after the game for the best possible outcome.

    Though Nick Foligno and Perry fought after the ensuing faceoff, it cannot be stressed enough that Perry had no malicious intent in the unfortunate circumstance that led to Tavares’ injury.

    Known as a power forward for much of his career, Perry’s offensive talent has waned over the years as last season’s Dallas Stars and this year’s Canadiens have relied on his presence more so for his big frame and grit.

    He was most recently suspended five games for elbowing Nashville Predators defender, Ryan Ellis, in the 2020 Winter Classic as a member of the Stars and received a major, as well as a match penalty as a result of the injury to Ellis.

    Unlike the supplemental discipline that awaits Colorado Avalanche forward, Nazem Kadri, for his blindside hit on St. Louis Blues defender, Justin Faulk, on Wednesday night, Perry’s knee to Tavares’ head on Thursday was not a deliberate act to injure.

    Canadiens goaltender, Carey Price (1-0, 1.00 goals-against average, .972 save percentage in one game played), made 35 saves on 36 shots against in the win for Montréal.

    Jack Campbell (0-1, 2.07 goals-against average, .933 save percentage in one game played) stopped 28 out of 30 shots faced in the loss for Toronto.

    For the first time since 1979, the Maple Leafs and Canadiens are facing each other in a postseason series. Montréal swept Toronto in four games in the 1979 Quarterfinals, while the last time the Leafs beat the Habs in a playoff series was back in the 1967 Stanley Cup Final (Toronto won in six games).

    Riley Nash made his Leafs debut on Thursday after being acquired ahead of the trade deadline and immediately being placed on the long term injured reserve.

    After Tavares’ injury, Foligno and Perry dropped the gloves at 10:30 of the first period and received five-minute major penalties for fighting.

    Almost two minutes later, Josh Anderson (1) had a breakaway and fired a wrist shot over Campbell’s glove to give the Canadiens a, 1-0, lead at 12:08 of the first period.

    Eric Staal (1) and Tyler Toffoli (1) tallied the assists on Anderson’s goal.

    Late in the opening frame, Toffoli hooked Zach Hyman and presented the Maple Leafs with the night’s first power play at 18:43.

    Toronto did not capitalize on the ensuing skater advantage.

    Entering the first intermission, Montréal led, 1-0, on the scoreboard, despite trialing the Maple Leafs, 14-13, in shots on goal.

    The Canadiens held the advantage in blocked shots (5-3), hits (28-13) and faceoff win percentage (72-28), while Toronto led in takeaways (3-1).

    Both teams had four giveaways each, while only the Leafs had encountered a skater advantage and were 0/1 heading into the middle frame.

    Montréal got a taste of a power play at 1:25 of the second period when Justin Holl sent the puck over the glass and out of play, yielding an automatic delay of game minor penalty as a result.

    The Habs weren’t able to convert on the resulting skater advantage, however.

    Morgan Rielly sent a shot on Price that generated a rebound whereby William Nylander (1) collected the garbage from aside the crease– tying the game, 1-1, in the process.

    Rielly (1) and Holl (1) had the assists on Nylander’s goal at 4:28 of the second period.

    A couple minutes later, Chiarot was assessed a roughing minor at 6:43, but the Canadiens managed to kill off the penalty without issue.

    Late in the period, Montréal got another chance on the power play at 14:35, after Jason Spezza hooked Nick Suzuki, but the Habs couldn’t muster anything on the skater advantage.

    Through 40 minutes of action, the score was tied, 1-1, despite Toronto leading in shots on goal, 22-20, including an, 8-7, advantage in the second period alone.

    Montréal led in blocked shots (9-5), hits (44-19) and faceoff win% (59-42), while Toronto held the advantage in takeaways (9-5) and giveaways (11-8) entering the second intermission.

    Both teams were 0/2 on the power play heading into the final frame.

    Marner sent an errant puck over the glass at 2:48 and presented Montréal with another power play at 2:48 of the third period.

    Nylander did the same at 7:15.

    Both times the Canadiens failed to score on the skater advantage.

    Moments later, Tomas Tatar caught Jake Muzzin with a high stick at 11:29 of the third period, leading to a power play for the Leafs.

    About a minute later, however, the Habs capitalized on the penalty kill as Joel Armia poked the puck off of Thornton’s blade, leading to a quick breakout for Byron that turned into a short breakaway for the Habs forward.

    Byron (1) was tripped before chipping the puck over Campbell’s glove side– negating a delayed penalty– and giving the Canadiens a, 2-1, lead at 12:44 of the third period.

    Armia (1) had the only assist on the goal that would go on to be the game-winner as the clock eventually ticked down to zero.

    Spezza tripped Shea Weber at 13:54, but the Habs failed to convert on the ensuing power play.

    Phillip Danault tripped Hyman at 16:42, but the Leafs couldn’t muster anything on the resulting power play.

    Keefe pulled Campbell for an extra attacker with about 2:15 remaining in the game, but it was to no avail– even after Toronto drew up plans to tie the game after a stoppage in play led to Keefe using his timeout with 1:51 remaining in regulation.

    At the final horn, the Canadiens had won, 2-1, and taken a 1-0 series lead.

    The Maple Leafs finished the night leading in shots on goal, 36-30, including a, 14-10, advantage in the third period alone.

    The Habs wrapped up Thursday night’s action leading in blocked shots (13-10), hits (55-27) and faceoff win% (56-44), while both teams had 16 giveaways each.

    Montréal finished the night 0/5 on the power play and Toronto went 0/4 on the skater advantage in Game 1.

    Montréal has a chance to take a 2-0 series lead on the road Saturday night in Toronto.

    Puck drop at Scotiabank Arena is expected to be a little after 7 p.m. ET and fans in the United States can tune to CNBC, while those in Canada can catch the action on CBC, SN or TVAS.

  • Numbers Game: 2020-21 Season Standings Projections

    As the calendar flipped from 2020 to 2021 at midnight while New Year’s Eve turned into New Year’s Day, the ongoing global pandemic continued without a second thought despite the world’s optimism for the New Year and, thus, shifted the 2020-21 National Hockey League season into an abbreviated 56-game schedule from Jan. 13th through the first week of May.

    Usually, it’d be fine to present divisional projections in accordance with a normal 82-game expected points total formula, but the aforementioned 56-game season schedule would render those numbers inaccurate from the beginning.

    82 games is 26 games too many this season.

    It would be fine to run a “what if the 2020-21 season were a regular-length season?” piece, but it’s more fun to tackle a challenge when everything’s made up and the points don’t matter.

    Seriously, don’t look into this too much unless you’re an employee of a team looking to hire someone right now, in which case please ignore the “C” I had in Intro to Stats in college.

    Anyway, I’ve taken the liberties of calculating what an 82-game 2020-21 season would’ve looked like, then based the projections for what the 56-game 2020-21 season could look like using this little thing called “pace”.

    That’s right. Points pace.

    You know, like “if a team earned two points with a win in their first game in an 82-game season, they’d be on a 164-point pace for the season”.

    In actuality, the team could go 3-6-1 over their first ten games, yielding seven points on the season through that span and being on a 57.4-point pace over the course of an 82-game season.

    If this is too much math you can just tell me to shut up and get to the graphs.

    For the sake of keeping it simple, here’s a look at how things might go in each division for the upcoming 2020-21 season.

    Starting with the NHL’s all-Canadian North Division for the 2020-21 regular season, there’s a few things that jump out immediately as a result of the current projections.

    Did realignment have any impact on what the projections look like?

    No. For the record, this season’s temporary realignment had no impact on any of the divisions other than how they’re organized.

    Instead of seeing the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators in the Atlantic Division, the Winnipeg Jets in the Central Division and the Calgary Flames, Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks in the Pacific Division– they’re all just in the same division.

    The expected points total is calculated by first adding marginal goals for and marginal goals against, then multiplying that result by league points per goal.

    Divide the number of points expected based on the formula’s derived for what an 82-game season in 2020-21 would’ve looked like by 82 games, then multiply that result by 56 (the number of games in actuality for 2020-21) and you get… …the same exact results you would’ve had for each team if the divisions hadn’t been realigned.

    So Montreal would’ve still had an expected points total of 52 points regardless of being in the Atlantic Division or North Division.

    The schedule plays no impact on the expected points model.

    So every team is just going to earn about a point-a-game?

    Not necessarily.

    Either all the Canadian teams are playing at about the same level of intensity, which makes for great parity– especially in a division solely comprised of Canadian market clubs.

    Or they just would’ve been wherever they would’ve been within their own usual division, but when they’re thrown together it looks… …worse?

    In a non-pandemic timeline, the Canadian clubs would be scattered all over the standings with the Oilers competing for the top spot in the Pacific Division with the Vegas Golden Knights, while the Senators would likely be bottom dwellers in the Atlantic.

    With the all-Canadian North Division, the best teams could really run away with things or all seven teams could eat each other alive in the division.

    What’s the good news then?

    At least one Canadian team will make it into the 2021 Stanley Cup Semifinal, since the first two rounds will be intra-divisional matchups.

    Under the current projection, Winnipeg would face Vancouver in the First Round, while Edmonton would take on Toronto in the First Round.

    In the West Division, the Colorado Avalanche are the team to beat. The Avs are hungry to avenge their Second Round exit against the Dallas Stars in the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs if they can stay healthy and bring the Cup back to Denver for the first time since 2001.

    Meanwhile, the St. Louis Blues might have some questions surrounding their goaltending, but the additions of Mike Hoffman and Torey Krug greatly outweigh the subtraction of Alex Pietrangelo– at least when it comes to regular season production.

    In terms of experience and leadership, the Vegas Golden Knights picked up Pietrangelo’s talents via free agency and should be in contention for home ice advantage if they’re able to overcome St. Louis’ projected standing.

    What about the meat of the order?

    Both the Minnesota Wild and Arizona Coyotes are in a lot better shape than the Californian hockey teams.

    The Wild have Kaapo Kähkönen coming down the pipeline in the crease and depending on how soon he can arrive might influence their final standing compared to Arizona.

    Whereas Minnesota must rely on aging veterans, Cam Talbot and Alex Stalock in net, the Coyotes have Darcy Kuemper and Antti Raanta– a serviceable tandem for Arizona’s needs.

    Mikko Koivu was sent out to find a new home as an influx of youth should make the Wild more competitive, but how much will Arizona’s playoff experience play into their drive for making at least another First Round appearance this season– despite losing Carl Söderberg in free agency to the Chicago Blackhawks and trading Derek Stepan to the Ottawa in the offseason.

    Time will tell.

    Is this the weakest division?

    The all-Canadian North Division has the advantage of playing each other and sorting things out themselves instead of spreading their Canadian talents (or lack thereof depending on the team) throughout the league, so yes, the West Division is likely the weakest.

    The Los Angeles Kings have some growing pains and salary cap hell to sort out. The Anaheim Ducks are a young team that’s finding their chemistry and building their experience, but are one or two years away from playoff contention.

    Finally, the San Jose Sharks have an ever-regressing duo of Martin Jones and Devan Dubnyk in the crease to go along with whatever’s left on their blue line that’s not named Brent Burns and (a supposedly 100% healthy) Erik Karlsson.

    At least the Sharks brought back Patrick Marleau (third time’s a charm) and other than that, they don’t have that bad of a forward group.

    In the 2012-13 lockout shortened 48-game season, 20 out of the league’s then 30 teams at the time finished with at least 49 points or more in the season.

    The 2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks finished 19 points away from a perfect 96-point season– amassing 77 points in 48 games with a 36-7-5 record.

    Chicago is going through a rebuild without Jonathan Toews for possibly an extended period of time and with Malcolm Subban and Collin Delia in the crease.

    The good news? They’ll likely end up with a solid lottery pick in the 2021 NHL Draft.

    The bad news? They’re not going to find themselves having a repeat of their 2013 Stanley Cup championship.

    Will any team from the Central Division be like those 2012-13 Blackhawks though?

    It’s funny that you ask, because the defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning would have to win at least 75% of their games if they want to be anything like the 2012-13 Blackhawks.

    Whereas Chicago won 36 out of 48, Tampa would have to win 42 out of 56 games.

    It’s not that the Lightning can’t reach 84 points in the 2020-21 season– especially since the Blackhawks almost reached 80 in a shorter span, but rather how good will the rest of the Central Division be and how will the intra-divisional games only schedule impact, well, everything?

    Tampa is projected as the regular season division winners with 66 points on the season.

    The formula doesn’t take into account the loss of Braydon Coburn and Cedric Paquette in a trade with the Senators or the loss of Nikita Kucherov for the regular season due to an injury.

    It doesn’t take into consideration the intra-divisional schedule, other injuries that are sure to occur, transactions, acts of The Hockey Gods, etc.

    The 2012-13 Blackhawks had the advantage of facing mostly regular opponents over 48 games, then progressing through the old format of the playoffs where teams were seeded 1-8 among six divisions of five teams.

    Tampa just has to be one of the top-four teams in their division over 56 games against all too familiar faces from night-to-night, then emerge victorious out of the Central to defend their title.

    Anything is possible.

    Can the Florida Panthers really be a playoff team?

    Yes, the expected points model seems to indicate that the Florida Panthers were pretty good at finding the net in the regular season last year and that they should improve their standing, at least.

    It doesn’t, however, determine whether or not Sergei Bobrovsky returns to form in quality starts, shutouts, etc.

    New Panthers General Manager, Bill Zito, has added Markus Nutivaara and Radko Gudas to the blue line, as well as Anthony Duclair and Patric Hörnqvist to the forwards, so they should definitely be harder to play than in years past.

    Gut feeling says three-time Stanley Cup champion head coach, Joel Quenneville, can make something more out of the pieces he’s been handed this season than in 2019-20.

    Are the Detroit Red Wings really that bad?

    No, but they didn’t do themselves any favors when it comes to utilizing last season’s data for determining this season’s expected points total.

    Marginal goals for and marginal goals against can be a cruel animal, but it’s one of the best things to take into account of recency bias.

    Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman added Vladislav Namestnikov, Bobby Ryan, Marc Staal, Troy Stecher, Jon Merrill, Alex Biega and Thomas Greiss to his team, so they won’t at least be intentional pushovers like last season.

    The loss of Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug in the offseason for the Boston Bruins comes with a price– having to face Chara eight times in the regular season, then possibly Krug and the St. Louis Blues in a 2019 Stanley Cup Final rematch in the 2021 Stanley Cup Final.

    Just kidding, the window appears mostly shut in the Hub.

    It’s not that Boston can’t win, but rather that they have a bit of an uphill battle to get there.

    Yes, their defense is younger, but it’s also more inexperienced. Yes, they added Craig Smith for goal scoring power, but it’s no Mike Hoffman.

    At least David Pastrnak is looking to make a return ahead of schedule from his offseason surgery, but don’t be fooled by their six-point lead over the Philadelphia Flyers in the East Division projection.

    Every second matters in a 56-game season. If they get off to a rocky start, they risk going from a surefire playoff contender (for at least another year or two) to missing out on the 2021 postseason.

    The Buffalo Sabres added Taylor Hall, what gives?

    Again, if you haven’t learned by now, expected points totals do not take signing the 2017-18 Hart Memorial Trophy winner to a one-year, $8.000 million contract into account.

    Hall could be the winger Jack Eichel needs to convince him not to ask for a trade request as much as Eichel could be what Hall needs for a little rejuvenation and to be convinced to stay longer in his reunion with Sabres head coach, Ralph Krueger.

    No matter what, though, the addition of Eric Staal and more in Buffalo means there’s sure to be improvement this season.

    If it was the regular Atlantic Division, the Sabres might be looking at a wild card situation.

    But since it’s the temporarily realigned East Division for 2020-21, yeah, there’s a lot more harder competition. Take the Hall pass and try again next season (maybe you’ll get the 1st overall pick).

    Explain to me how the New York Rangers and New York Islanders miss the playoffs?

    This one is fairly simple.

    The East Division is just six teams out of the regular Metropolitan Division, plus the Bruins (pretty good) and Sabres (pretty bad).

    As such, it’s almost as if nothing ever happened in terms of the compete level of the overall division, but the playoff format yields only the top-four teams from each division for 2020-21.

    Instead of getting, say, seven Metropolitan teams (impossible, yes, but let’s pretend) in the upcoming postseason, you can only have four.

    If the B’s are taking one of those spots like they are in this projection, that limits the usual Metropolitan contenders to three leftover playoff berths.

    If anything, the Pittsburgh Penguins are at the greatest risk of sliding out of the postseason picture with Tristan Jarry as their starting goaltender and Casey DeSmith as their backup after trading Matt Murray to Ottawa in the offseason.

    That’s good news for the Islanders, probably, though the Rangers have more talent on paper (especially if Mathew Barzal isn’t re-signed when the puck drops on Jan. 13th).

    So that’s it.

    If you’ve made it this far and read every word– congrats, it’s probably time for puck drop already. Surely the calendar must read Jan. 13th by now and you can get back to watching that game you just tuned into.

    Stay tuned for more forecasts and (un)related things that don’t have anything to do with expected points totals.

  • DTFR Podcast #214- 2020-21 Season Preview: West Division

    DTFR Podcast #214- 2020-21 Season Preview: West Division

    Zdeno Chara signed with the Washington Capitals, the AHL announced plans for the 2020-21 season, the NHL divisions are sponsored for 2020-21, what’s going on with the New York Islanders, Pierre-Luc Dubois wants out (maybe) and we preview the West Division for the 2020-21 season.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher and/or on Spotify.