Down the Frozen River

Tag: Sakic

  • January 6 – Day 91 – Hej baby

    With the NHL’s bye weeks starting up tomorrow, there’s lots of action for us to take in today!

    Making today even more amazing, the league has scheduled two matinee games for our enjoyment. The first involves St. Louis at Philadelphia (SN) at 1 p.m., followed two hours later by Edmonton at Dallas. The usual starting time of 7 p.m. has three contests for us (Carolina at Boston, Vancouver at Toronto [CBC/NHLN/SN] and Tampa Bay at Ottawa [CITY/SN1/TVAS]), while the New York Rangers at Arizona waits until 8 p.m. to drop the puck. Minnesota visits Colorado at 9 p.m., with Anaheim at Calgary (CBC/SN) trailing an hour later and Nashville at Los Angeles closing the evening off at 10:30 p.m. All times Eastern.

    Though there’s more than a few stellar matchups on tap today, three caught my eye before even the first puck was dropped on the season.

    • St. Louis at Philadelphia: The Blues and Flyers swapped C Jori Lehtera and F Brayden Schenn this summer. Considering Schenn has posted 17-25-42 totals this season compared to Lehtera’s 0-2-2, I’d say the winner of the trade is self-evident.
    • Minnesota at Colorado: Tonight at the Pepsi Center, RW Milan Hejduk‘s 23 is being lifted to the rafters to reside with five other Avalanche greats.
    • Anaheim at Calgary: There’s no love lost here: this is a rematch from the Western Conference’s first round that the Flames would rather forget.

    It might surprise you, but one of the hottest teams in the NHL right now is actually the Colorado Avalanche. Let’s see if they can keep this positive energy rolling for Hejduk’s special night.

     

    What an exciting day for the Avalanche franchise. There are few former members of the Avs more deserving of this honor, to the point that your favorite humble hockey blog predicted tonight’s festivities over two years ago.

    Selected by Québec in the fourth round of the 1994 NHL Entry Draft from the Czech Republic, Hejduk made his NHL debut on opening day of the 1998-’99 season. It wasn’t an overly impressive rookie season for Hejduk (though he was named to the All-Rookie Team), posting only 14-34-48 totals and finishing a distant third behind teammate C Chris Drury in voting for the Calder Memorial Trophy, but Hejduk would have the last laugh of a far superior career.

    Some players experience a sophomore slump, but Hejduk was quite the opposite. He started the 1999-’00 season with a bang by scoring the first goal in the history of the Pepsi Center, and that campaign ended up being the fourth-best of his career, as he posted 36-36-72 totals that became his baseline for almost every season until 2007-’08.

    Hejduk’s third season is probably the one he remembers the fondest, as that’s the year Colorado hoisted the Stanley Cup. The Czech continued his growth at the professional level to reach the 40-goal plateau for the first time en route to his second-consecutive appearance at the All-Star Game (which the Avalanche hosted), and he earned 79 points to help the Avs to a 52-16-10-4 record good enough for the Presidents’ Trophy. He followed that effort up with a 7-16-23 performance in the postseason – second-best behind C Joe Sakic – that included the game-winning goal in Game 2 of the Western Quarterfinals in a 2-1 victory over the Canucks.

    Short of the Stanley Cup, the biggest achievement of Hejduk’s career was winning the 2003 Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy after scoring a career-high 50 goals. He had a two-goal advantage on runner-up LW Markus Naslund, and a whopping 21 more that the Avs’ second-best goalscorer that season, C Peter Forsberg, with whom he shared the now discontinued NHL Plus-Minus Award that season after they both posted a franchise-best +52.

    Hejduk is far and away the longest tenured player in the history of the Nordiques/Avalanche franchise, as he played 1020 regular season games over 14 seasons with the burgundy and blue, not to mention another 112 playoff contests. Over those 1020 games, he registered 375 goals and 805 points – both the fourth-most in in team history – and a fifth-most 430 assists.

    Hejduk’s 23 will be Colorado’s first retired number since D Adam Foote‘s 52 was raised to the rafters on November 2, 2013. Hejduk joins D Ray Bourque, Foote, Forsberg, G Patrick Roy and Sakic – and I guess technically C Wayne Gretzky too, though the closest he came to playing in Denver was his 18 games with St. Louis in 1996.

    For those that believe these types of trends can predict the future, Colorado has a 4-1-0 record and a +7 total goal differential in games when it retires a number, so Minnesota should be worried about its chances tonight.

    Of course, this Avs team – which has a 21-16-3 record that is good enough for 10th in the Western Conference, two points behind Minnesota in the second wildcard spot – is nowhere near the caliber of those Hejduk played for in years past. However, that’s not to say this squad can’t find success. In fact, Colorado enters tonight’s game riding a four-game winning streak and having earned a 6-1-1 record over its past eight games, which is the third-best mark in the NHL since December 18.

    How have the Avs been finding this success? Where to start?

    Let’s start with the offense, which has scored 27 goals since December 18 to rank (t)fifth-best in the NHL in that time. The first line has been nigh unstoppable during this run, as both F Nathan MacKinnon (2-9-11 totals) and RW Mikko Rantanen (5-6-11) are headlining the teams scoring, and LW Gabriel Landeskog is only a step behind with his 3-4-7 effort.

    But Colorado hasn’t only successful on the offensive end; the defense – even with G Semyon Varlamov nursing a lower-body injury – has played exceptionally, allowing only 15 goals against, the (t)fifth-fewest since December 18.

    Varlamov was playing well before he went down on January 2, as he’d posted a .931 save percentage and 2.14 GAA in his six last starts. But G Jonathan Bernier has been even better, earning an incredible .965 save percentage and 1.2 GAA since starting New Year’s Eve’s game against the Islanders. Bernier is coming off a 34-save shutout against the Blue Jackets Thursday.

    As for Minnesota, it is quietly in the second wildcard position with a 22-16-3 record. The Wild have also been playing well lately, as they’ve won four of their past five contests.

    The Wild’s offense has come alive during this run, as they’ve scored 19 goals since December 27 to rank (t)second-best in the league since then. F Mikael Granlund is finally starting to look like he did last year when he posted career-high 26-43-69 totals. He started slow in 2017 to post only 11-16-27 totals, but he’s managed a 4-4-8 effort from the second line over his last five games to lead his team’s surge. D Jared Spurgeon has also performed well, posting 1-5-6 totals over this run.

    Tonight’s meeting marks the second in the four-game series between the Avalanche and Wild. Game 1 took place in St. Paul on November 24, with Minnesota winning 3-2 on a shootout.

    Considering the festivities of the evening and the fact that the Avs could surge into playoff position with a victory tonight (Anaheim would need to lose in regulation to Calgary for that to happen), this should should be an excellent game. Considering how well Colorado has played of late, I think it is capable of beating the Wild.

    Only a day after being shutout 4-0, the Pittsburgh Penguins used their good luck in the DtFR Game of the Day series to beat the New York Islanders 4-0 at Barclays Center yesterday.

    While it was an evenly contested first period between the Pens and Isles (they combined for 21 total shots on goal), Pittsburgh absolutely dominated the Brooklynites in the second by scoring three goals.

    The first belonged to Third Star of the Game RW Daniel Sprong (First Star C Sidney Crosby and F Dominik Simon), scoring his first NHL goal since November 6, 2015 with a wrist shot 41 seconds into the frame for what proved to be the game-winner.

    Crosby did most of the leg work on the goal, stealing the puck off LW Andrew Ladd‘s stick along the boards in the Islanders’ offensive zone. The Captain then screamed up the ice towards G Jaroslav Halak‘s crease with Sprong to his right, setting up a two-on-one play against D Nick Leddy. Once Halak committed to saving a shot from Crosby, he crossed a pass to Sprong, allowing him to easily bury his wrister into a gaping cage.

    F Evgeni Malkin (Crosby and RW Phil Kessel) doubled Pittsburgh’s advantage with a power play snap shot 2:49 later, followed by Crosby (Sprong and Simon) setting the score at 3-0 with 4:10 remaining in the frame.

    Sprong’s night wasn’t through with his game-winner. He tacked on his own insurance goal (D Justin Schultz and Crosby) with 6:32 remaining in regulation to set the 4-0 final score.

    Second Star G Tristan Jarry saved all 31 shots he faced to earn the second shutout victory of his young NHL career, while Halak – who saved 34-of-38 (.895 save percentage) – was forced to take the loss.

    Road teams in the DtFR Game of the Day series are starting to find some mojo. They’ve earned points in three-consecutive games to pull within 22 points of the 51-29-11 hosts.

  • November 10 – Day 38 – Duchene’s Stockholm syndrome cured

    In a league that already features players from all around the world,  today’s schedule has an especially international flavor as the Avalanche and Senators square off at the Ericsson Globe in Stockholm, Sweden.

    To ensure it takes place during prime time in Sweden, that game is scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern time (NHLN/RDS). Back on our side of the Atlantic Ocean, the action begins at the usual time of 7 p.m. with four tilts (Florida at Buffalo, Boston at Toronto, Pittsburgh at Washington [NHLN/SN/TVAS] and Carolina at Columbus) followed by the New York Islanders at Dallas 90 minutes later. Finally, this evening’s nightcap drops the puck at 10:30 p.m. when Winnipeg visits Vegas. All times Eastern.

    Yes, there’s an Original Six rivalry taking place in Ontario tonight; and yes, the Penguins and Capitals will meet up for the second of four times this season. But there’s something really exciting happening in Europe – and it’s not just the fact that the NHL is in town.

     

     

     

     

     

    I’m always intentional about the order logos are presented in this column, and today is no exception: the Avs are designated the home team for today’s contest and they’ll swap benches for tomorrow’s game. Does that make them the Stockholm Avalanche today?

    Obviously.

    A few fun facts about today’s venue (all research from this Wikipedia article unless otherwise noted): the Ericsson Globe, located in southern Stockholm, opened in 1989 and “is the largest hemispherical building on Earth.” The design is no accident, as The Globe “represents the Sun in the Swedish Solar System, the world’s largest scale model of the Solar System.”

    Huh. That’s neat.

    The home arena of both Djurgårdens IF and the Swedish Men’s National Hockey Team, The Globe can hold 13,850 hockey fans. Though that would make it the smallest arena in the NHL by nearly 1500 seats, that hasn’t stopped it from hosting some major events in the past.

    Limiting our list to just hockey, it has hosted the Ice Hockey World Championships four times (most recently in 2013 when host Sweden, led by C Henrik Sedin, took gold and F Alex Galchenyuk‘s Team USA won bronze in a shootout), the World Cup of Hockey twice (most recently the 2004 quarterfinals when Sweden fell 6-1 to the Czech Republic), five NHL Challenge series games (the most recent of which were two Maple Leafs games against Djurgårdens IF and Färjestad BK in 2003) and eight previous regular season NHL games, the last of which was during the 2011-’12 season.

    Some famous Swedes participating in today’s contest include Senators defensemen Fredrik Claesson, Erik Karlsson and Johnny Oduya and the Avs’ LW Gabriel Landeskog. Of the four, three – Claesson, Landeskog and Oduya – are Stockholm natives.

    Anton Lindholm, a rookie defenseman for Colorado, also would have been one singing “Du gamla, du fria” before today’s game, but he joined four other Avalanche players on injured reserve after breaking his jaw Saturday in Philadelphia. D Patrik Nemeth (undisclosed) and F Carl Soderberg (paternity leave) also did not make the trip back to their homeland.

    While those are the names that will attract the most attention from Swedish hockey fans, those of us on this side of the ocean are far more interested in the play of F Matt Duchene, who will be making his Senators debut against the very team he was playing for only five days ago.

    Though it’s been expected since last season’s trade deadline that Duchene would eventually play against the Avalanche during the 2017-’18 campaign, few could have predicted the events that took place Sunday night in Brooklyn. Instead of trading the 27-year-old during the offseason, General Manager Joe Sakic had Duchene stick around Denver for an awkward photo shoot, 13 games and two shifts before concocting a three-team trade to send him to Ottawa.

    That’s right, Duchene was traded right in the middle of a game. Not before. Not after. Perhaps it was D Scott Mayfield‘s goal that Duchene was on ice for that was the final straw. Who knows?

    It seems humorous and unlikely, but given how the Avalanche have been run of late, it just might be a safe assumption.

    You can find a more in-depth analysis here courtesy of @nlanciani53, but I got all the information I needed from F Nathan MacKinnon‘s interview with Adrian Dater following the Islanders game:

     

    All-in-all, it seems the squad would have still loved to have Duchene in the fold, but seeing him return from the offseason frustrated was enough to convince them that his heart was no longer in Colorado – no matter how much of “a real pro” MacKinnon says he was about the situation.

    With that in mind, I’d figure it won’t be too tough – emotionally, at least – for the 8-6-0 Avalanche to square off against their old pal. As far as playing against the 6-3-5 Senators, though? That might be a taller task.

    Though we’re used to saying it about every game the Avs play for the past year or two, it’s certainly true here: they’re just a bad matchup against the Senators, as it’s a situation of “anything you can do, I can do better.”

    MacKinnon’s 4-10-14 totals might be good enough to lead Colorado to a seventh-best 3.36 goals-per-game, but Karlsson and his 1.44 points-per-game simply looks at that and scoffs, as his Senators have managed a superior 3.57 goals-per-game.

    Well, maybe the Avs might have an advantage on defense.

    Think again. D Erik Johnson might be managing 2.1 blocks-per-game, but that’s not enough to keep goaltenders Semyon Varlamov or Jonathan Bernier from facing a seventh-worst 33.6 shots-per-game. Meanwhile, although the other end of the ice is no brick wall, the efforts of D Cody Ceci (2.5 blocks-per-game) and co. has limited netminders Craig Anderson and Mike Condon‘s nightly workload to only 31.7 shots against.

    Even the special teams skew Ottawa’s way. Led by F Mike Hoffman‘s five power play points, the Sens are converting 20 percent of their man-advantages into goals, a rate that is (t)11th-best in the NHL. Though RW Mikko Rantanen‘s eight extra-man points are individually more successful, the fact that the Avalanche’s 19.3 percent conversion rate ranks only 14th-best must be discouraging.

    While not exactly successful in comparison to the rest of the league, Ottawa can take solace in the fact that its penalty kill that is successful 80.5 percent of the time is yet another point in its favor when compared to the Avalanche. Colorado plays the (t)10th-worst PK in the league, killing off only 78.6 percent of its infractions.

    If there’s anywhere Colorado does have the advantage, it might be between the pipes. In most cases, you’d expect 5-3-3 Anderson to be superior to 6-3-0 Varlamov, but the Senators’ netminder has had a slow start to this season, managing only a .896 save percentage and 3.13 GAA that bows to Varlamov’s .911 save percentage and 3.09 GAA effort.

    Whether they start today or tomorrow, I expect them to square off against each other. Just in case they don’t assume their spots in crease today, know that Ottawa’s 1-0-2 Condon has a .924 save percentage and 2.6 GAA that is easily superior to 2-3-0 Bernier’s .884 save percentage and 3.63 GAA.

    No matter how you slice it, this weekend’s international series is looking like four points for Ottawa. If the Colorado Stockholm Avalanche can earn any points out of this trip to Europe, they’ll have Varlamov to thank for it.

    By scoring four goals in 2:02 against the defense that entered the game giving up the fewest goals-per-game in the league, the Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Los Angeles Kings 5-2 in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day.

    For a California road trip that was supposed to be difficult, the Lightning aren’t having too much trouble finding wins. That was no more apparent than when the Lightning blitzed G Jonathan Quick in the first period. The attack started with First Star of the Game RW Nikita Kucherov (Second Star C Steven Stamkos and D Slater Koekkoek) burying a backhanded shot 9:27 into the contest, and it was followed up 34 seconds later by an F Alex Killorn (D Dan Girardi and C Tyler Johnson) tip-in.

    Coincidentally, only 34 seconds ticked off the clock before Tampa scored yet again. This one, which proved to be the game-winner, was struck by D Victor Hedman (F Yanni Gourde and W Ondrej Palat) – a snap shot to give the Lightning a 3-0 advantage. Stamkos (Killorn and Kucherov) completed the attack with a power play slap shot struck with 8:31 separating the Kings from the safety of their dressing room.

    Los Angeles did eventually have to emerge from its safe haven to play the second period, though probably not before Head Coach John Stevens gave his club a spirited tongue lashing. Whatever he did obviously worked, as F Tyler Toffoli (Third Star C Anze Kopitar and D Jake Muzzin) was the only player on the ice to find the back of the net in the frame, setting the score at 4-1 at the second intermission.

    D Oscar Fantenberg (W Dustin Brown and F Brooks Laich) provided the Kings a plausible chance of a comeback at the 8:39 mark pf the third period with his first goal of the season, but F Vladislav Namestnikov (Hedman and Kucherov) squelched that optimism with a snapper with 7:01 remaining in regulation to set the final 5-2 score.

    G Peter Budaj earned the victory after saving 22-of-24 shots faced (.917 save percentage), leaving the loss to Quick, who saved 38-of-43 (.884).

    There’s a trend that has formed in the DtFR Game of the Day series since Halloween: the road teams win two games, followed by hosts winning one. Well, Tampa Bay’s road win comes on the heels of a home victory Wednesday night, so we’ll see if that pattern continues in today’s game.

    In the meantime, the 19-15-4 hosts in the DtFR Game of the Day still hold an advantage in the series, but it has been trimmed to only two points.

  • Merkle’s Weekly Bumblings: Week 4

    Player of the Week: Josh Bailey

    This award almost went to Bailey’s captain John Tavares, who himself had a 3-goal 5-point week, but his output couldn’t quite match that of Bailey, who tallied 7 points (all of them assists) during the Islanders’ 3-game stretch. The versatile Islanders forward started off the week with a trio of apples against Vegas on Monday night, before adding 2 apiece Thursday in Washington and Sunday against the Avs.

    But, quite more impressively, Bailey’s scoring stretch goes beyond this week’s 3 games. In fact, it triples that.

    Yes, to find the last time Josh Bailey was held off of a scoresheet, you have to travel all the way back to October 14th against the Sharks. 10 games ago. Registering 2 goals and 14 assists in the 9 games since, once could argue that Bailey is possibly the hottest player in the league that doesn’t play for the Tampa Bay Lightning.

    Team of the Week: New York Rangers

    This was another tight vote, as the San Jose Sharks almost got the nod here. But I’m going to give it to the Rangers based on the fact that they needed this hot streak more than fish need water. After a mostly-miserable October where nothing seemed to go right, the Rangers rolled into MSG to face Vegas on All-Hallows Eve, looking to banish the ghouls that were haunting them. (It physically pained me to write that.)

    Fresh off a loss in the ‘Battle to Decide Who is the Least Worst’ in Montreal, the Blueshirts battled their way to a 6-4 victory over the Golden Knights and get their feet back under them, at least for the time being. Faced with the daunting task of taking on the scorching hot Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday night (in Tampa’s barn), the Rangers pulled off the upset, allowing just 1 goal against the hottest offense in the league, and vanquished the home team on the strength of a J.T. Miller goal just 1:19 into overtime. Two nights later it would be Kevin Shattenkirk spoiling another Florida foe’s party, as his OT goal would lift the Rangers to their 3rd consecutive win, and directly into this prestigious award.

    Now, doubling your season victory total in one week isn’t necessarily something to brag about, but the Rangers desperately needed a week like this to at least drag them back into something resembling contention. We’ve still got a lot of season to go, but digging yourself too big a hole early on can prove fatal when the season reaches crunch time.

    Game of the Week: Tampa Bay Lightning 8 @ Florida Panthers 5, Monday October 30th

    How could it not be? Seriously. Look at the score. That’s silly. Plus the intrastate rivalry, there was a fight, Andrei Vasilevskiy tied a league record for wins in October, it was just dumb and that’s what made it great.

    “Oh, but what about…”

    No! You’re wrong! My article, my rules, silliness wins.

    News, Notes, and Nonsense:

    I’m officially done making jokes about the Vegas goaltending situation, because at this point I might actually be like 3rd or 4th on their depth chart.

    Habs goaltender Charlie Lindgren has been a rare bright spot for the team this year, as he has now gone 4-0 as an NHL starter and racked up his 1st career shutout with a 38-save effort to blank the Blackhawks in the United Center. Not bad, kid. Not bad.

    Brian Boyle returned to game action this week, promptly telling cancer where it can shove it.

    A bunch of guys squirted each other with water bottles and the league fined them for it, which can be filed under both the news and nonsense parts of this section.

    Alright, let me just check and see if I missed anything as I was putting this together on Sunday evening and *opens Twitter* OH DEAR LORD WHAT HAPPENED?!?

    So…apparently Matt Duchene is a Senator…and, Kyle Turris is a Pred…and both of those teams’ futures now belong to Joe Sakic. Huh…

  • October 13 – Day 10 – Sold their souls to the Jersey Devil

    Sorry, no obscure celebrity references in the title today. Hopefully you came for the references and stayed for the hockey previews.

    Friday has a few fun games on the roster, starting with two (Washington at New Jersey and the New York Rangers at Columbus [NHLN/SN1/TVAS]) at 7 p.m. Another pair of contests (Anaheim at Colorado and Ottawa at Calgary) drop the puck at 9 p.m., followed by tonight’s nightcap, Detroit at Vegas, 90 minutes later. All times Eastern.

    It’s unfortunate that New Jersey and Vegas weren’t squaring off tonight, as two undefeated clubs tangling would have been a fun sight. Instead, we have to choose between one or the other, and since we’ve already featured the Golden Knights twice this season, it looks like it’s off to Newark with us!

     

    Anyone who pegged the New Jersey Devils to start the season a perfect 3-0-0, please stand up.

    OK, now all of you sit down, because I think most of you are liars.

    A season removed from the third-worst offense in the league, the Devils have absolutely exploded to start this campaign, as they average 5.33 goals-per-game to rank second-best in the NHL.

    While it’d be fun to assume that the reason for Jersey’s improvement is the addition of C Nico Hischier (0-1-1 totals), the top-overall pick in this season’s NHL Entry Draft, much of the offense has actually come from W Jesper Bratt, a Swedish 19-year-old that was a sixth-rounder from the Class of 2016.

    Bratt (3-3-6) has been absolutely outstanding to begin his rookie career, as he currently averages a goal and an assist per game. It’s an elite group to be a member of, as only Washington’s D Christian Djoos can make a similar claim – though he’s played in only one game.

    Additionally, a total of only six players currently average two points-per-game, and it is quite a group. Bratt and Djoos are currently sharing company with the likes of Detroit’s D Mike Green, Buffalo’s LW Evander Kane and Washington’s C Evgeny Kuznetsov and W Alex Ovechkin.

    Not too shabby, as all are established names in his league.

    Another integral part to the Devils’ early success has been free agent signing D Will Butcher. Another rookie, he’s managed to provide five assists – three of which were on the power play – to fully integrate himself into New Jersey’s attack from the blue line.

    Why the Avalanche didn’t want Butcher in their system is beyond me. Maybe General Manager Joe Sakic thought he accidentally happened into his Hobey Baker Award.

    Turns out he was wrong in that assessment.

    As a result of Butcher’s play on the man-advantage, Jersey has seen a massive improvement on its power play. Last season, the Devils converted 17.5 percent of opponents’ penalties into goals, but this year is a totally different ball game (err… puck game). New Jersey has found success in four-of-13 opportunities for a 30.8 percent conversion rate, the fifth-best in the NHL.

    Unfortunately, numbers like Bratt’s and Butcher’s are tough to maintain even for RW Jaromir Jagr, much less two rookies. Both skaters will return to Earth eventually, so G Cory Schneider will need to continue his bounce-back season. Having played all three of the Devils’ games so far, he’s managed a .948 save percentage and a 2.00 GAA to rank among the top-10 goalies in the league.

    In the red corner, the Capitals enter this game on a two-game losing skid (most recent of which was Wednesday’s 3-2 home defeat at the hands of the Penguins).

    As I stated in Wednesday’s preview, Washington is playing far better than its offseason would have indicated. In particular, the Caps’ power play has been very good, as they’ve already registered three goals in 13 extra-man opportunities.

    One of Washington’s best play makers, C Nicklas Backstrom has been at the front of the man-advantage surge. He’s already registered three power play assists in four games. One of his favorite goal scorers to set up has been F T.J. Oshie, who has scored two man-advantage goals of his own. Considering New Jersey is playing the eighth-worst penalty kill to start the season, they’d be wise to keep RW Stefan Noesen under control.

    Additionally, RW Tom Wilson will make his season debut this evening. He was suspended for the first four games of the season for boarding St. Louis’ LW Samuel Blais in their preseason game on October 1. Wilson has already served two suspensions this season after serving a first during the preseason, so he’ll be walking on eggshells with Head Coach Barry Trotz and the Department of Player Safety. If the former first-rounder cannot clean up his game in his contract year, he may struggle to find a job that pays the way he wants it

    If Wilson shows any signs of timidity, I’d guess the Devils won’t hesitate to jump on him.

    Considering all the momentum is on New Jersey’s side right now, I’m leaning towards the Devils taking this game. That being said, Vegas is leaning towards the Capitals taking this one, favoring them in the -140 range.

    After allowing the Dallas Stars to score the first goal, the Nashville Predators buried four unanswered tallies to win yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day at Bridgestone Arena.

    Dallas’ lone goal of the night was struck 8:04 into the contest courtesy of LW Jamie Benn (C Jason Spezza and D John Klingberg), who used a power play wrist shot to pot his first marker of the season. The Stars held onto that lead throughout the opening period and into the first intermission.

    It took only 3:27 of action after returning to the ice for First Star rookie D Samuel Girard (D P.K. Subban and W Cody McLeod) to find his first goal of his NHL career. That slap shot leveled the game at one-all, allowing Second Star F Filip Forsberg‘s (Girard and F Ryan Johansen) power play wrister 2:54 later to be what proved to be the game-winner.

    There’s nothing like a revenge goal with the cherry on top being that it ended up the winner. 5:12 into the second period, Spezza was sent to the penalty box for tripping Forsberg, the eventual goalscorer.  The play started when Forsberg entered the offensive zone along the near boards. Under pressure from two Stars penalty killers, he was forced to retreat back towards the point before passing to Girard on the opposite side of the zone. The youngster advanced towards G Ben Bishop‘s crease before firing a slap shot from the face-off circle to the netminder’s stick side. Bishop was forced to make a diving save but was unable to contain the rebound, leaving him vulnerable to Forsberg’s elevated wrister.

    W Viktor Arvidsson (Forsberg) and Subban tacked on braces in the third period to cement the Preds’ second-straight victory.

    Third Star G Pekka Rinne earned the victory after saving 30-of-31 shots faced (.968), leaving the loss to Bishop, who saved 27-of-30 (.9).

    The DtFR Game of the Day series has certainly favored the 6-3-1 home teams so far, as they now have a four-point advantage over the visitors following tonight’s win.

  • How Not to Negotiate–with Darren Ferris

    When last we left off, I was discussing the stalemates with Matt Duchene in Colorado and Josh Anderson in Columbus (See here). One thing I failed to mention in that article was the role for Darren Ferris in the situation–don’t do something dumb that makes the possibility of a trade for your client worse.  Now, there are things Ferris could do to try and nudge things along such as following through on the threat that Anderson would spend the season in Switzerland (even though we all know that is a horrible result for his client unless he values chocolate and watches more than actual money).  That wouldn’t have materially altered the playing field, but it would have given an impression that Ferris was serious about his threat.

    The absolute dumbest thing Ferris could do is make a public trade demand.  Why is this a really bad idea from a negotiations standpoint?  Let me count the ways.  For one thing, it is a clear dominance move.  Either the other person gives into the trade demand or you end up withdrawing the trade demand.  The public is going to know that one side or the other caved.  You will note that Duchene and his agent, Pat Brisson (also agent for Alexander Wennberg), have never made a public trade demand even though Brisson sure looked excitable at this year’s NHL draft.  It now seems obvious why they didn’t–Duchene wasn’t going to risk the possibility of not playing at all and losing salary in the process to try and force a trade.  As I’ve thought about it more, given that Joe Sakic‘s pride seems to be playing a part in his decisions regarding Duchene, this was probably the right move because I don’t know that Sakic would take kindly to a demand that would make him look weak.

    Now, what do we know about Jarmo Kekäläinen and how he deals with negotiations?  We know he didn’t cave to Ryan Johansen and his agent, Kurt Overhardt, when they made lofty contract demands despite the fact that Johansen was probably the most important player on the team at, arguably, the most important position.  We know that he didn’t cave to Wennberg and Brisson even though, again, the player in question was slotted to be his number one center.  This isn’t someone who rolls over simply because of posturing or theatrics.  So, how was he likely to address a public trade demand based on his history?  Does it seem likely Kekäläinen would give into such a demand or stand firm in the face of it?  The latter seems more likely.

    So, we have a sense that Kekäläinen’s initial reaction would be to refuse to trade Anderson.  What about Ferris’ own position in this game of chicken?  Again, as I pointed out in the last article, his position is very weak.  This move doesn’t improve his leverage in any way.  In fact, his position is weaker than Brisson’s with Duchene because a trade demand by Duchene could spark a public outcry to trade Duchene and/or for Sakic to be fired by the owners.  We saw this exact scenario play out with Rick Nash and Scott Howson.  To be clear, the Jackets fan protest proceeded Nash’s trade demand becoming public, but Howson’s precarious position and the team’s need to rebuild worked to Nash’s advantage.

    Is there going to be an outcry for Kekäläinen to be fired a few months removed from the best season in Jackets history?  Hardly.  Is there going to be a public demand for Anderson to be traded?  Maybe, but fans aren’t going to demand that the player be traded just to be traded; they are going to expect a good return.

    Which gets us to the next problem–a public trade demand might make Anderson harder to trade or diminish the return.  The demand may make Anderson harder to trade because a GM is only acquiring Anderson’s rights and would still have to get Ferris to accept a final deal.  Is there a GM that is willing to cave to Ferris’ demands because they want the player badly enough?  Maybe, but I wouldn’t bet on it.  We’re talking about a player who really has only one NHL season of experience.  I’m not convinced other GMs are any more willing to give Anderson the two-year deal he seems to be after so that he can get arbitration rights as soon as possible, particularly given the player and agent’s current negotiating tactics.  Additionally, other GMs will now view the Jackets as being in a position where they have to trade the player and they will be looking to get a deal.

    Colorado is the team that could be the exception since they have their own situation where they need to trade a player, but, again, the public demand creates the impression that the Jackets are giving into the demands of the player and the agent, complicating an already complicated situation.

    Fortunately, if this was meant to be a public demand, Ferris botched it just enough to give the sides some wiggle room.  Indeed, Kekäläinen has already made a statement that he wasn’t aware of such demand and Ferris has seemingly walked away from going public with the demand, instead giving a vague statement about continuing to negotiate.

    Ferris is playing with fire.  He has been fortunate to this point in his negotiations with Red Wings GM Ken Holland that Holland hasn’t put him on blast for his tactics in the negotiations for Andreas Athanasiou including-wait for it-threatening to take the player overseas.  Being taken to task by one of the longest-tenured GMs in the league would probably not be a positive for Ferris’ future as an agent.  As it is, being the only agent with two failed restricted free agent negotiations isn’t exactly a feather in his cap.  And, let’s not forget, just last year in the Tobias Rieder negotiations Ferris sent an e-mail that stated “I think it would be best for both parties if they just traded him.” Rieder would later re-sign with the Coyotes, so apparently he changed his mind. This is an agent who largely represents lesser talents who keeps trying to make a name for himself in the worst ways possible.

    Keep in mind, Ferris isn’t exactly loved by some of his fellow agents.  When he left Don Meehan’s Newport Sports Management group, a suit followed including allegations that Ferris misrepresented ties with players and slandered his prior employer.  He later left Bobby Orr‘s agency to start ARC Sports Group.  He’s since formed Definitive Hockey Group, apparently as successor to ARC Sports Group.  When you see a guy who so routinely pulls out over-the-top tactics and who seems to constantly be looking for a new job, you have to start to question his skill as a negotiator and, frankly, his ethics.  In any event, his standard operating procedure of threatening a player will leave for Europe/Russia and demanding a trade through the press is getting old with NHL GMs.  But, for the sake of entertainment, I’d love to see him try that with Lou Lamoriello (Ferris’ most high-profile client is Mitch Marner).

    Ferris needs to tow the line.  If a trade can’t be made, he needs to stop harming his client and sign the deal that has been offered.  The team can always facilitate a trade later on when the mess Ferris created has died down.  This was another misplayed bluff by an agent with a history of them.

  • Columbus, Duchene, Anderson and the Delicate Art of Negotiations

    The first games of NHL pre-season have come and gone and Matt Duchene still is a member of the Colorado Avalanche, despite Duchene being the most visible asset on the trade market and possibly the best player available dating back to the middle point of the 2016-17 season.  Meanwhile, Josh Anderson, after having one solid campaign in the bottom six for Columbus remains one of two unsigned, restricted free agents. How is this possible?

    Both instances show the delicate balance in negotiating a deal. I’m not an NHL GM, but I play one on the Internet.  When I’m not doing that, as a lawyer, I spend my days negotiating deals.  There are many different negotiating styles, but there are certain basic principles of negotiations that are important regardless of style.  Most people are at least familiar with the concept of leverage—the idea that parties in the negotiation have different strengths and weaknesses based on their circumstances.  However, there is a more basic concept that should ultimately guide parties in a negotiation, which I’ll refer to as “BATNA”—the best alternative to a negotiated agreement.  To be clear, this isn’t something I created, it goes back to the Harvard Negotiation Project and the book Getting to Yes.

    BATNA is, in short, the best result you can achieve if negotiations fail. A rational negotiator won’t accept an offer that falls short of their BATNA because they are better off not closing the deal.  In the Duchene trade talks we have heard a lot about how Joe Sakic can just keep Matt Duchene.  To this point, that is exactly what he’s done.  The party line is that if Duchene has a good year, Sakic will see offers improve and so he is reasonable to hold out for a deal equivalent to what he thinks he can get if Duchene’s play improve.

    However, this isn’t a fair understanding of how BATNA works. Sakic also has to consider other factors.  For example, if Duchene has another poor year, how would that impact his trade value?  If Sakic can’t trade him until next offseason (more on this below), how would that impact his trade value?  What if Duchene gets injured?  What if other comparable or better players come onto the trade market in the interim (ex. John Tavares or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins)?  What if the trade pool shrinks as some teams address their need at center internally or because a team no longer has the asset Sakic wants to complete the deal?

    Sakic’s worst case BATNA is pretty bad. If Duchene has a poor season (not improbable on a team as bad as the Avalanche) or gets injured (not uncommon in the NHL), Duchene’s value could go down to close to zero.  If John Tavares and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are suddenly on the market with Duchene, demand for Duchene will decrease even if he otherwise has a good year.  If teams like Columbus find an internal solution for their current needs at center (not unthinkable for Columbus in particular because of the presence of Pierre-Luc Dubois), the market for Duchene could take a further hit. We’ve already seen Nashville’s interest diminish as they lost the depth at defenseman they needed to complete a deal.  Keeping Duchene beyond training camp is risky business.

    Now, let’s look at the case of Josh Anderson and his agent, Darren Ferris. Anderson had a nice year, but trailed off as the season moved on.  He has no arbitration rights.  He would seem to justify a deal less than Connor Brown, who just got a deal for $2.1 million/year over three years.  It’s unclear exactly where the parties are at other than a report that suggested the Jackets have given Anderson two options—a one year deal at his qualifying offer and a three year deal of “less than $1.9 million” (which sounds like agent speak for $1.85 million).  That second option sounds pretty close to market.  Yet, Anderson continues to hold out and his agent is now threatening that his player will play in Switzerland and then the Olympics.

    When we look at Anderson’s BATNA, it becomes obvious that this is either a bluff, or an incredibly foolish move by Ferris. Anderson’s salary in Switzerland is likely to be a maximum of $500,000.  Even Anderson’s qualifying offer is higher than that.  And what does Anderson gain by spending a season in Switzerland? Nothing.  He still won’t obtain arbitration rights.  What if he has a poor season in Europe, in a subpar league, or gets injured?  What if Milano, or Abramov or some other Jackets prospect simply takes Anderson’s roster spot and makes him expendable?  The bottom line is that the Jackets negotiating position won’t get worse, but Anderson’s certainly could.

    Sometimes pride can get in the way of making a deal. This is almost always a bad idea.  As an attorney, I may come to hate the attorney on the other side, but it is my job to do what is best for my client regardless of those feelings.  Sakic and Ferris need to think about the best interest of their “clients”—the Colorado Avalanche and Josh Anderson.  Sakic needs to make a move on Duchene now rather than risk finding his return further diminished.  Ferris needs to get his client a deal that keeps him in the NHL and doesn’t waste hundreds of thousands of dollars for nothing.

    Another piece of negotiating advice that a former partner who practiced in the bankruptcy arena once gave was “always give the other side enough money for cab fare home.” What does that mean?  It means that when you are the party with superior leverage, it is important to afford the other side some amount of dignity in “defeat.”

    Jarmo Kekäläinen is in a position to potentially resolve both of these issues in one move, but to do it he will have to give the other sides money for cab fare home. For Sakic, that will mean giving him something that he previously asked for in negotiations and was denied—Anderson.  In the most recent 31 Thoughts column by Elliotte Friedman, he stated:  “It is believed, for example, that Colorado asked for [Anderson] in Matt Duchene talks, only to be rejected.” The status of the negotiations between Columbus and Anderson have created an opening for the two parties to re-engage in discussions of a trade that would include Anderson.  Sakic, in turn, will have to accept Ryan Murray instead of Gabriel Carlsson.  I get why Sakic wants the younger player and I don’t think it has as much to do with perceived skill as time horizons for being competitive and control of the player through contract, but he can’t expect to get a Anderson AND a player on an entry-level contract.  It seems likely that a pick would be a part of the deal, with the possibility that a pick might come back to the Jackets to even things out.  I’d also consider the possibility of adding a player like Dean Kukan given the lack of organizational depth on the blueline for the Avs.  Sakic can crow that he got “4 assets” as he initially set out to do (even if he also sends an asset back) and he can proclaim that the moment that the deal came together was when Anderson was added.  People will praise Sakic for holding out to get what a better deal though no one will ever know for sure what other deals were passed up along the way or pulled off the table.  Sakic will get the left defenseman he needs and a player who could put up 20 plus goals if moved into the Avs top 6, essentially replacing Duchene’s production from last season.  He’ll have both on reasonable terms for years to come.

    And what of Darren Ferris? He may well end up signing the exact same deal that Jarmo already offered his client in Colorado, but the public will be none the wiser since Jarmo has never gone public to say what that offer was.  He may not like dealing with Jarmo, but he should also respect the fact that Jarmo didn’t make a fool of him in the newspapers, which he certainly could have.

    Meanwhile, the Jackets shore up their depth at center, while giving some of their depth on defense. Defensive depth is always something that can be added at the trade deadline (particularly the bottom pair), so it is a reasonable trade-off.  Is it a lot to give up?  Yes.  Is the team closer to being a contender after the trade?  Also, yes.  The longer the Anderson situation plays out, the more this option could and should be considered by the Jackets.  The question then is whether Sakic can see a trade with this sort of framework for what it is—the best offer he is likely to obtain that minimizes the negative effects of his best alternative to a trade.

  • Columbus Blue Jackets 2017-2018 Season Preview

    Columbus Blue Jackets Logo

    Columbus Blue Jackets

    50–24–8, 108 Points, 3rd in the Metropolitan Division

    Eliminated in the First Round by Pittsburgh

    Additions: D Andre Benoit, D Cameron Gaunce, F Tyler Motte, F Artemi Panarin, F Jordan Schroeder, D Doyle Somerby

    Subtractions: F David Clarkson (Traded to Vegas), G Oscar Dansk (Signed with Vegas), G Anton Forsberg (Traded to Chicago), F Sam Gagner (Signed with Vancouver), F William Karlsson (Claimed by Vegas in the 2017 Expansion Draft), D Kyle Quincey (Signed with Minnesota), F Brandon Saad (Traded to Chicago), D Ryan Stanton (Signed with Edmonton), F T.J. Tynan (Signed with Vegas)

    Offseason Analysis: As the 2017-2018 season approaches, one club that people are keeping their eyes on are the Columbus Blue Jackets. Although that comes as a surprise to many, Blue Jackets faithful know the quality product that their team can put on the ice. If anything, they certainly have created many high expectations for themselves, with a roster that seems poised to repeat regular season success.  *If you didn’t catch the bold font, please re-read the above sentence and note the specific terminology*

    The Blue Jackets, entering the league as an expansion team in 2000, have now reached the playoffs three times, including two trips in the last four years. Although they did not achieve playoff success, the 2016-2017 season was still the best in franchise history, as they eclipsed the 100-point marker for the first time. The sixteen-game winning streak the team managed looked pretty and filled the seats at Nationwide Arena, but it left many wanting more. They slowed down (basically like a freight train screeching to a halt) and crawled into the playoffs, where they were beaten by the eventual Stanley Cup Champions, the Pittsburgh Penguins. It was seemingly a two-part tale to the season, so which Columbus Blue Jackets team will we see this year?

    The front office wanted to make some noise, but at the same time, not create too much change. They achieved their goal when they acquired young star, Artemi Panarin, which forced them to send a talented Brandon Saad back to Chicago after only a couple years with the Blue Jackets. Forwards Tyler Motte and Jordan Schroeder will also be making moves to the Buckeye State, but they may be searching for homes in Cleveland rather than in Columbus. Both players have NHL and AHL experience, but they will need to compete for a full-time roster spot, not to mention ice time. The remaining three additions, all defensemen, could assist the already well-rounded corps, but it will probably be in the form of call-ups. Although doubtful at this point, one looming deal could still take place as the season nears (COME ON SAKIC, MAKE A DEAL… sorry, impulsive reaction). Other than that, the front office will take their current roster and hope to still be playing hockey in June.

    So where does this leave the Blue Jackets? They will rely heavily on the talents of three award-winners this past season; Head Coach John Tortorella, Captain Nick Foligno, and especially goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky. If Bob can remain healthy and put together another Vezina-quality season, the net will be secured. It will also be interesting to watch the production of the ‘Bread Man’ and see his results with a new team and line-mates. Panarin is motivated by critics who say he was simply riding the coat-tails of Kane back in Chicago.

    Lastly, is this defense capable of winning a Presidents’ Trophy or Stanley Cup? They have steadily improved and now have great depth at the position, including talented, puck-moving defensemen like Zach Werenski and Seth Jones.

    Offseason Grade: B-

    Is this the year Columbus can make a big push? Although it seems doubtful, its honestly the closest they have ever been. After some early struggles, they have built their team the right way and are now solid in net and both ends of the ice. They need to act quickly, as contract renewals and the salary cap could hurt them in the near future. Players surely remember getting taken out by their rivals early in the playoffs, who eventually went on to hoist the cup, and have something to prove this season (boy, their first game with the Pens will be fun to watch). They also understand the high expectations from management, coaches, and the fans. The recipe is there, so let’s see if the Jackets can get something cooking.