Tag Archives: Ryan Reaves

Take Five: Five takeaways from Game 2 of the 2020 Western Conference Final

Paul Stastny opened the game’s scoring with the eventual game-winning goal as the Vegas Golden Knights shutout the Dallas Stars, 3-0, in Game 2 of the 2020 Western Conference Final to tie the series, 1-1.

William Karlsson and Tomas Nosek each had a goal in the win as the Golden Knights evened the series thanks to Robin Lehner’s second consecutive shutout– his fourth of the postseason overall.

So with Game 3 in mind on Thursday night (8 p.m. ET on NBCSN, CBC, SN, TVAS), let’s review some takeaways from Game 2 and where the series might go from here.

1. Now that we’ve seen Vegas respond, the obvious “will Dallas respond in Game 3?” must be asked.

Dallas came out flying in Game 1, despite only scoring one goal and winning, 1-0– Vegas looked flat to kick off the series.

Just like in 2018, however, the Golden Knights went full throttle in Game 2 of the Western Conference Final, nearly scored four goals (Shea Theodore had a goal disallowed due to incidental contact with the goaltender courtesy of Max Pacioretty on the doorstep of the crease) and notched the shutout to tie the series.

Now, of course, how will the Stars respond?

Especially since they were outshot, 8-5, in the first period and, 19-7, in the second period alone. After 40 minutes, the Stars trailed the Golden Knights, 3-0, on the scoreboard (all Vegas goals were scored in the second period– traditionally what has been a better period for Dallas since their comeback over the Calgary Flames in Game 6 back in the First Round) and, 27-12, in total shots on goal entering the second intermission.

To Dallas’ credit, however, the Stars outshot Vegas, 12-5, in the third period alone.

In fact, the Golden Knights didn’t even have a shot on goal through the midpoint of the final frame, despite finishing with the advantage in shots on net, 32-24, at the final horn.

How will Stars interim head coach, Rick Bowness, respond to Vegas bringing out the big guns?

Especially since Ryan Reaves returned from his one-game suspension and suited up alongside William Carrier and Nick Cousins, which has been an effective shutdown fourth line thus far in the postseason.

2. Never tip your hand on a good future goalie.

Stars goalie, Jake Oettinger, made his NHL debut after Anton Khudobin was pulled prior to the third period.

The Boston University Terriers men’s hockey team standout amassed a league-leading .917 SV% among first year American Hockey League goaltenders in 2019-20 with the Texas Stars (AHL affiliate of Dallas).

Oettinger was the second goalie to make his league debut this postseason, joining Dan Vladar of the Boston Bruins as the other goalie to do so in the 2020 playoffs and marking the first time since 1937, that two goalies made their NHL debuts in the same postseason.

Whereas Vladar was fed to the wolves (a.k.a. the Tampa Bay Lightning) without much help in both ends of the ice, the Stars played better in front of their backup goaltender after clearly getting the message from Bowness– that they had let Khudobin down.

Oettinger only faced five shots and made five saves in 17:09 time on ice.

Yes, you read that right.

Despite Khudobin amassing 40 minutes played on Tuesday, Oettinger played less than a full period because Bowness pulled his netminder for an extra attacker with lots of time remaining in the game on the off-chance Dallas could score three quick goals and tie the game, at least.

They did not, but in the meantime, at least they didn’t rush Oettinger into any NHL action before it became absolutely necessary (though some watchful eyes of the minor leagues might wonder why Oettinger didn’t get a start earlier in the postseason to offset Khudobin’s workload while Ben Bishop is still injured and “unfit to play”).

Kudos to the Stars for not letting everyone else know about Oettinger’s impressive development thus far, though.

3. So… Robin Lehner the rest of the way?

This one should be obvious, but Lehner just had his fourth shutout this postseason (and second consecutive, if you didn’t read earlier).

Though Marc-Andre Fleury made 24 saves on 25 shots in Game 1, Lehner is the hotter goaltender right now– hands down.

Fleury’s 2.27 goals against average and .910 save percentage is fine. It pairs well with his 3-1 record in four games in the 2020 postseason.

But Lehner has a 1.84 GAA and a .924 SV% to go with the four shutouts, as well as a 9-4 record in 13 games played, which, if you’re wondering is better than Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Lightning in GAA and shutouts.

Vasilevskiy is 11-3 with Tampa so far in 14 games and has a 1.92 GAA, a .930 SV% and no shutouts in that span.

Yeah, this should be an easy decision for Golden Knights head coach, Peter DeBoer. It’s Lehner’s crease until the team advances or comes up short this year.

4. They scored a goal (at even strength)!

The Golden Knights entered Game 2 against Dallas without a goal from their forwards at even strength since the third period of Game 4 against the Vancouver Canucks in the Second Round.

Thankfully, Stastny put an end to Vegas’ misery at 5-on-5 (or 4-on-4) play with his third goal of the 2020 postseason at 4:53 of the second period.

Vegas added one more goal at even strength when Nosek scored his second playoff goal this year on a beautiful 3-on-1 rush to make it a three-goal game at 14:32 of the second period.

Prior to Stastny’s tally, however, the Golden Knights’ last four goals (dating back to Game 6 against Vancouver in the Second Round) included two empty net goals and a pair of goals from Theodore.

As long as the compete level from Game 2 doesn’t dissipate, Vegas looks to have snapped their even strength skid.

5. Shutouts galore!

Vegas’ last four games have all been shutouts.

The Canucks shutout the Golden Knights, 4-0, in Game 6 of their Second Round matchup as Thatcher Demko emerged as a playoff hero before the Golden Knights returned the favor with a, 3-0, shutout in Game 7– courtesy of Lehner.

To kick things off in the 2020 Western Conference Final, Khudobin had a, 1-0, shutout in Game 1 for the Stars, then Lehner returned the favor again with another, 3-0, shutout in Game 2 for Vegas.

Then there’s this to consider– Lehner is the first NHL goaltender to record four shutouts in a single postseason since Fleury did so in 2018 with the Golden Knights on their run to a Stanley Cup Final appearance in their inaugural season.

Only five goalies in league history have recorded more shutouts in a playoff year.

Lehner’s extended his shutout streak to 131:44 in the process, which is the second-longest postseason shutout streak by a Golden Knights goaltender since Fleury had a 144:04 shutout streak going in 2018.

And finally, with both teams earning a shutout through the first two games of the Western Conference Final, Dallas and Vegas joined the Toronto Maple Leafs and Columbus Blue Jackets this season as the only teams to record shutouts in their first two games in a series this year.

The Stars and Golden Knights also joined a longer list in the process since the NHL’s Modern Era (since 1943-44) that includes the Lightning and New York Islanders in the 2004 Eastern Conference Quarterfinal, the Islanders and Ottawa Senators in the 2003 Eastern Conference Quarterfinal, the Philadelphia Flyers and Senators in the 2002 Eastern Conference Quarterfinal, the Florida Panthers and New York Rangers in the 1997 Eastern Conference Quarterfinal, the New Jersey Devils and Rangers in the 1997 Eastern Conference Semifinal and the Montreal Canadiens and Maple Leafs in the 1947 Stanley Cup Final.

Here’s to another shutout in Game 3 for either team to make more history, probably.

DTFR Podcast #204- Late For Everything!

Nick and Colby talk about what went wrong for the Toronto Maple Leafs and other teams eliminated in the 2020 Stanley Cup Qualifier, as well as preview the already in progress 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs First Round.

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple PodcastsStitcher and/or on Spotify.

DTFR Podcast #154- Sweep City!

Nick, Colby and Pete assess the Philadelphia Flyers’ hiring of Alain Vigneault, the Los Angeles Kings’ hiring of Todd McLellan, where does this leave the Buffalo Sabres in their search for a head coach, as well as some of the good (CBJ and NYI sweep), bad and ugly from the ongoing First Round of the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/oron Spotify. Support the show onPatreon.

Vegas Golden Knights 2018-19 Forecast Through 62 Games

Coming off a 3-2 shootout loss to the Boston Bruins on Wednesday, the Vegas Golden Knights (32-25-5, 69 points, 3rd in the Pacific Division) have 20 games remaining in the 2018-19 regular season.

These aren’t your father’s Golden Knights, as production is down from their inaugural season in just their 2nd season of existence.

Though Marc-Andre Fleury (29-18-5 record, 2.60 goals against average, .908 save percentage in 52 games played) remains Vegas’ starter on an almost nightly basis, backup goaltender, Malcolm Subban (3-6-0, 2.76 GAA, .912 SV% in 10 GP) has struggled to carry his own weight.

Despite bringing in Paul Stastny via free agency and Max Pacioretty via trade, the Golden Knights haven’t been immune to the injury bug this season.

Stastny and Pacioretty themselves have joined Reilly Smith and others throughout the lineup on the injured reserve or out of playing action for various points of the season.

While the Pacific Division title might be out of reach for Vegas this season, a divisional spot in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs is all but assured as long as the floor doesn’t fallout from underneath Gerard Gallant and his players.

Of note, the Arizona Coyotes are emerging once again with a late season push for the playoffs– and this time around, they’re doing it without their starting goaltender, Antti Raanta (out for the season due to injury).

Plus the Vancouver Canucks are still in contention and, well, that’s about it, realistically among Pacific Division teams that still have a chance for the last divisional spot and/or a Western Conference wild card berth.

Anyway, back to the Golden Knights.

Here’s a look at the latest Vegas forecast– keeping in mind there are many variables that can and will effect the final outcome, such as injuries and/or being called up, assigned, traded, lucky or unlucky.

This forecast is just an educated guess. It’s a glimpse of what could be or could’ve been by the end of the regular season.

As always, my degree is in communication– not math– and hockey is naturally steeped in context and holistic unpredictability. Nothing can account for sheer puck luck, the odd bounce or a blown call.

If a player reaches the expected outcome, they’ve met expectations. If said player exceeds the forecasted stats, they’ve exceeded expectations (naturally). Of course, if a player does not perform, then they did not live up to expectations.

On a game-to-game basis, whatever’s on the scoresheet can indicate general trends that can be further broken down into an educated forecast.

At best, it’s a guess. At worst, well, it doesn’t really matter– it’s not like Golden Knights General Manager George McPhee is reading this and making his roster decisions based on what’s here, right?

If he is, I’d like a job, please. Thanks.

Vegas Golden Knights Forecast Through 62 Games (20 Games Remaining)
WordPress, when are you going to make the ”gallery” option again (and actually make it good like how it used to be)?

Among forwards, Vegas’ consistent first line last season of Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson and Smith hasn’t had as much consistent luck and skill this season.

Though Smith has battled injury this season, Marchessault remains one of the Golden Knights most consistent performers expected to lead his team in goals (25) and points (54) with 25-29–54 expected totals.

Now what about Karlsson?

Good question, what about him? Things haven’t gone exactly as planned in terms of capitalizing on his breakout season last season with a new contract in the offseason and higher expectations for this season.

Karlsson’s bridge, one-year, extension last summer coming off the backs of a 43-goal season has only managed 18 goals thus far– including four goals in the last 22 games for the Golden Knights.

Given his current trend, Karlsson is expected to amass 21-23–44 totals. He’d be tied with Pacioretty for 2nd place in expected goals (21) and 3rd in expected points (44) on the roster, but nowhere near the emergent star in the making that he was last season.

While he very well could bounce back– similar to Smith in nature, following a good-year, bad-year, good-year, bad-year pattern– the phrase “what have you done for me yesterday” won’t help him in his next contract negotiation this summer unless McPhee gives him the benefit of the doubt.

Meanwhile, Alex Tuch is expected to finish the season with a career-high 20-33–53 expected totals.

That’s comforting to hear for a team that needs to rely on secondary scoring in the midst of a recession in primary production.

Tuch is expected to lead in assists (33), followed by Smith (30) and Marchessault (29), while Marchessault is destined to lead in points (54) over Tuch (53) and Karlsson (44).

On defense, Vegas’ blue line will finish off the season being led by Shea Theodore (11-21–32 expected totals), followed by Colin Miller (30 expected points) and Nate Schmidt (25 expected points despite missing the first 20 games of the season while serving a suspension for testing positive for a performance enhancing drug).

In net, Fleury looks like he’s bound to break under the weight of all the minutes he’s been playing and will play this season. A 2.74 expected GAA and .909 expected SV% is not starting goaltender material, unless we’re talking about Sergei Bobrovsky with the Columbus Blue Jackets or something.

But it’s not like Gallant can really count on his current backup to offset some of Fleury’s load. Subban’s expected 2.70 GAA and .912 SV% isn’t tremendous either.

If anything, it’s an indication that McPhee could help bolster his team with the acquisition of an extra goaltender by the trade deadline.

Someone like Ryan Miller, 38-years-old, could help steal some crucial points for the Golden Knights down the stretch if the San Jose Sharks aren’t already in the process of completing a trade for the goaltender with the Anaheim Ducks.

Growing pains are a fact of life– especially in sports– and Vegas is going through puberty already in its 2nd season. This season’s been full of highs, lows and awkward phases that hopefully will end in a glow up.

Otherwise we’ll all be looking back at this season shaking our heads at how it could pull off that much denim or something back in the day.

Analysis: Time is the biggest gamble in Brassard, Bjugstad swap

Midday Friday, the Pittsburgh Penguins and Florida Panthers completed a trade that left many scratching their heads.

Pittsburgh sent Derick Brassard, Riley Sheahan, a 2019 2nd round pick and two 2019 4th round picks (Pittsburgh’s own and Minnesota’s previously acquired in a deal earlier this week with the Dallas Stars) to the Panthers in exchange for Nick Bjugstad and Jared McCann.

Brassard, 31, was in his first full season with the Penguins and amassed 9-6–15 totals in 40 games played this season prior to the trade.

He was acquired by Pittsburgh last February from the Vegas Golden Knights after the Golden Knights added Brassard in a separate deal with the Ottawa Senators first– prior to retaining salary on Brassard’s contract and flipping him along with Tobias Lindberg to the Penguins for Ryan Reaves and a 4th round pick originally belonging to the Vancouver Canucks in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft.

In 14 games with the Penguins in 2017-18, Brassard added three goals and five assists (eight points) on top of his 18-20–38 totals in 58 games with the Senators prior to being trade deadline bait last season.

He registered one goal and three assist (four points) in 12 Stanley Cup Playoff games with Pittsburgh in the 2018 postseason before the Penguins were eliminated by the eventual Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals.

Never mind what he’s done for you yesterday, Brassard carries a cap hit of $3.000 million per season and is a pending unrestricted free agent this July 1st.

Not only that, but his salary can be retained one more time on his current contract if Florida desires to flip him by February 25th’s trade deadline.

The Columbus Blue Jackets’ 6th overall pick of the 2006 NHL Draft, Brassard has 443 points (171 goals, 272 assists) in 756 career NHL games with the Blue Jackets, New York Rangers, Senators and Penguins.

Sheahan, 27, had seven goals and two assists (nine points) in 49 games with Pittsburgh prior to the trade and was previously acquired by the Penguins in a transaction involving the Detroit Red Wings on Oct. 21, 2017 in exchange for Scott Wilson.

He is a pending-UFA this July and carries a cap hit of $2.100 million.

Despite failing to record a point with the Red Wings in eight games in the 2017-18 season, leading to his trade to the Penguins, Sheahan amassed his second-best season of 32 points (11 goals, 21 assists) in 81 games with Pittsburgh and Detroit last season.

He established career-highs in assists (23) and points (36) in 79 games with the Red Wings in 2014-15 and had a career-high 14 goals in 81 games in 2015-16 with Detroit.

In 414 career NHL games, the 21st overall pick of the 2010 NHL Draft has 139 career points (56 goals, 83 assists).

In summary, the Panthers added to a list of growing draft picks in 2019 (presently with nine selections, including three picks in the 4th round), while potentially clearing out enough cap space to pursue some of the big names (*ahem* Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky) that might hit the free agency market on July 1st.

While the move looks like a haphazard approach to writing off this season, Panthers fans will have to be patient and wait for the other shoe to drop in General Manager Dale Tallon‘s masterplan.

Even if that’s been said before.

Bjugstad, 26, had five goals and seven assists (12 points) in 32 games with the Panthers at the time of the trade and was the last connection Florida had to the 2010 NHL Draft as their 19th overall selection.

He posted a career-best 49 points (19 goals, 30 assists) in 82 games last season for the Panthers, establishing career-highs in assists and points.

The most goals he’s ever scored in one season was 24 in 72 games in the 2014-15 season as a 22-year-old. In five career Stanley Cup Playoff games, Bjugstad has two goals and two assists (four points) with one game-winning goal and a plus-six rating.

Bjugstad has two years left on his current contract with a $4.100 million cap hit and has 87-104–191 totals in 394 career games (all with the Panthers).

McCann, 22, had eight goals and 10 assists (18 points) in 46 games for Florida prior to the trade and was originally selected 24th overall by the Canucks in the 2014 NHL Draft.

He posted his career-best numbers last season for the Panthers with nine goals and 19 assists (28 points) in 68 games while earning a plus-11 rating (his first positive plus/minus outcome in four NHL seasons including the current 2018-19 season).

McCann has two years left on his current contract at $1.250 million per season and can become a restricted free agent at the end of the 2019-20 season. He has 27-44–71 totals in 212 games with Vancouver and Florida in his young career and was previously acquired by the Panthers in exchange for Erik Gudbranson on May 25, 2016.

Penguins General Manager Jim Rutherford has a knack for finding overlooked talent in an otherwise not as lively market and making them better in his current tenure with Pittsburgh, however, his latest move in snagging Bjugstad and McCann leaves more to be desired.

While Rutherford brought in younger players with an additional year remaining on their contract, the gamble remains as to whether or not McCann will fully pan out– or if he does, whether or not he’ll price himself out of Pittsburgh with a tight cap situation and no trade or no movement clauses on some of their larger contracts that extend past 2019-20 currently on the books.

Rutherford coveted McCann and now the next step will be figuring out how he can become part of the long-term solution.

In addition to his oft-injured history, Bjugstad is a younger replacement for Brassard– one year after Rutherford made the move to get Brassard.

Winning back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2016 and 2017 should be enough to overlook an otherwise mismanaged acquisition, however, Bjugstad costs more and now carries the added weight of living up to expectations or else further looking like the beginning of Rutherford’s mistakes on the way down from a Cup window.

One positive takeaway for Penguins fans– who perhaps know this best– is that Rutherford is active. No one can take that away from him in his search for finding the right pieces to build a dynasty.

As always, though, it is rare for any general manager in any sport to willingly depart an organization on their terms. Usually it’s the buildup of poor roster moves or repeated postseason failures that leads to “being relieved of duties” and kindly shown the door.

In short, the biggest takeaway for this deal is… …time will tell.

Game of the week: January 21-27

Whether you measure by games played or the All-Star Break, the middle of the season is upon us. Are you an optimist and see all the hockey remaining on the schedule? Or is the glass half empty, formerly full with games now gone by? While you’re figuring that out, here’s the NHL’s offering of games this week.
NHL SCHEDULE: January 21-27
TIME (ALL TIMES EASTERN) VISITOR HOST NATIONAL BROADCAST(S)/ Result
Monday, January 21
3 p.m. Nashville Colorado 4-1
4 p.m. St. Louis Los Angeles 3-4
6 p.m. Minnesota Vegas 4-2
7 p.m. San Jose Florida 2-6
Tuesday, January 22
7 p.m. San Jose Washington 7-6 (OT)
7:30 p.m. Arizona Ottawa 3-2
8:30 p.m. New York Islanders Chicago Blackhawks 2-3 (SO)
9 p.m. Carolina Calgary 2-3 (OT)
9 p.m. Detroit Edmonton 3-2
Wednesday, January 23
7:30 p.m. Washington Capitals Toronto Maple Leafs NBCSN, SN, SN360, TVAS
7:30 p.m. Arizona Montréal RDS, SN1
9:30 p.m. Minnesota Colorado
10 p.m. Nashville Vegas NBCSN
10 p.m. St. Louis Anaheim
10:30 p.m. Carolina Vancouver ESPN+
Thursday, January 24
No games scheduled – All-Star Break
Friday, January 25
No games scheduled – All-Star Break
Saturday, January 26
NHL All-Star Game from San Jose, Calif.
Sunday, January 27
No games scheduled – All-Star Break
As you can see, the fun we gain in having the All-Star festivities in San Jose scheduled for this weekend is largely negated by this week’s half-serving of fixtures. Them’s the breaks, I suppose. As for some of this week’s biggest games, we needed to look no further than Monday’s matchup between Nashville and Colorado, a rematch of the First Round from last April’s playoffs. Also, F Alex Galchenyuk is making his first trip back to Montréal tonight, his former home of six seasons. W Micheal Ferland and D Dougie Hamilton were in the same boat last night in Calgary, their home for four and three seasons, respectively. While Galchenyuk will surely receive a warm welcome this evening, I’m much more interested in a tilt taking place in the Mojave Desert between two Western Conference foes.
Boasting the second-best record in the Central Division, the 29-18-4 Nashville Predators enter tonight’s game with a bit of a limp. Though they won their last tilt against Colorado 4-1, they’ve only managed a 2-3-1 record in their past six outings – a mark that makes Nashville fortunate it has built up a nine-point lead on third-place Minnesota. What is most alarming about this rough patch for the Preds is that their latest struggles are usually among the team’s greatest strengths. Since January 10, Nashville has allowed an average of 3.67 goals per game and 32.5 shots per game. Those both rank seventh-worst in the NHL in that time – a far cry from the Preds’ season marks of 2.61 goals against per game ([t]second-best) and 29 shots against per game (fifth-best). Is this just a case of the Predators being worn out after 51 games so far this season? Considering the Predators’ entire defensive corps is healthy right now, I’d say this very well could be the answer. They’ll take a four-day bye period in addition to the four-day All-Star Break to recuperate for the final 30 games if that is the case. However, eight days off doesn’t do Head Coach Peter Laviolette any good tonight. He needs to find a way to get his troops to perform better tonight, especially since they’re heading into one of the toughest arenas in the league and taking on a hot team in the Golden Knights. On the season, Nashville’s defense has been headed by D Ryan Ellis (two blocks per game and a team-high 42 takeaways) and W Austin Watson (three hits per game). Watson has maintained his role as the team’s leading hit-thrower during this stretch, but his production has dropped to 2.2 hits per game since January 10. Similarly, Ellis’ blocks-per-game production has dropped to 1.5 in his last six outings, falling behind D Mattias Ekholm and D Roman Josi‘s matching 1.8 blocks per game. With only four takeaways in his last six games, Ellis is still a dominant threat in that department considering his position. However, the Predator that really been creating steals lately is F Filip Forsberg, who has averaged a takeaway per game since January 10. Mix in the fact that he’s averaging almost a point per game during this run, and you find a player who’s not at fault for his club’s recent defensive inefficiencies and lack of results. Regardless of who is taking the blame, one player who definitely isn’t happy about the situation is 18-12-3 G Pekka Rinne. Even though Rinne has been having a solid campaign (made evident by his .915 save percentage and 2.47 GAA on the season, the latter of which is tied for sixth-best in the NHL), he’s been a terrible victim of his team’s defensive effort of late. Rinne has only won one of his last four starts, posting a horrendous .878 save percentage and 4.27 GAA in those outings. Rinne has faced the Golden Knights twice in his career, but is still looking for his first victory against the second-year franchise. In the previous two matchups, he has managed a .928 save percentage and 2.44 GAA, highlighted by a 36-save performance on December 8, 2017 that ended in a 4-3 six-round shootout victory for Vegas. Rinne earned
After rattling off a seven-game winning streak, the 29-18-4 Vegas Golden Knights have propelled themselves into third-place in the Pacific Division with 10 points separating them from Vancouver. However, those winning ways have gone by the wayside in the last two weeks, as Vegas has alternated results in its last five outings for a 2-3-0 record. Vegas lost to the Sharks 3-2 on January 10, followed two days later by a 4-3 overtime win in Chicago. January 15 saw the Golden Knights lose 4-1 in Winnipeg, but a trip home was just the medicine they needed to beat the Penguins 7-3. Most recently (Monday, to be precise), the Wild came to T-Mobile Arena and emerged with a 4-2 win. Does this pattern mean the Knights are ensured two points tonight? If Vegas wants to take its fate into its own hands, it should surely continue what it is doing on the defensive end. Despite the consistently inconsistent results, one thing that has remained constant is the Golden Knights’ blue line, which has allowed only 27.2 shots against per game since January 10 – the fourth-best mark in the league in that time. Leading that defensive charge is none other than F Tomas Nosek (seven takeaways in Vegas’ last five games), RW Ryan Reaves (4.4 hits per game since January 10) and D Nate Schmidt (two blocks per game during this run), despite the fact that injured LW William Carrier (five hits per game), D Brayden McNabb (1.9 blocks per game) and D Shea Theodore (49 takeaways) lead the team in their respective statistics for the season. A major reason for these inconsistent results is the Golden Knights’ scoreboard does not reflect their positive defensive performance. A major reason for that has been the lackluster play by G Marc-Andre Fleury in his last five starts. Even though he boasts a .911 save percentage and 2.5 GAA (tied for ninth-best in the NHL) for the entire season, he’s managed only a .895 save percentage and 2.85 GAA in his last five starts. In fact, Fleury has allowed at least two goals per game in his last seven outings – a surprising statistic for the netminder whose six shutouts double the eight players’ marks that are tied for second place. If history will decide this tilt, Fleury will certainly bring his A-game against Nashville. He boasts a 9-5-1 record against the Predators, bolstered largely by five-straight wins between 2010-14 during his tenure with Pittsburgh. In those 15 appearances, he owns a career .927 save percentage and 1.95 GAA – dominant marks for any netminder against any one club. Of course, those marks are in the past. Which team enters the All-Star Break with two more points to their credit? Since both teams have managed approximately equal offense since January 10 (the Preds’ 3.33 goals per game is slightly higher than Vegas’ 3.2), I’ll consider that a wash. Instead, I’ll lean towards the Golden Knights earning tonight’s victory on the backs of their solid defensive play.

Vegas Golden Knights Forecast Through 40 Games

It’s not the most recent forecast, since the Vegas Golden Knights played Game 41 of their 2018-19 regular season on Saturday against the Los Angeles Kings.

Nevertheless, it’s time to take a quick check of the pulse of the Golden Knights– how their season has progressed so far and where it appears to be going from here.

Thanks to some extenuating circumstances, perhaps Vegas fans will forgive me for not being able to get around to their quick forecasted glance after 20 games played this season.

Why? Because it would’ve been pretty dismal and you don’t need that kind of negativity in your life.

Although, now at the halfway mark (officially after the game against the Kings, technically unofficially as of this forecast), things have improved, but with a few concerns remaining.

Nate Schmidt served his 20 game suspension for a performance enhancing drug and for the most part, Vegas’ blue line got the job done.

The team’s record wasn’t desirable, but guys like Shea Theodore and Colin Miller continued to rise past expectations in their ability– even more so now that Schmidt is back and solidified the defensive zone for the Golden Knights.

One thing that has plagued the team all season is subpar goaltending.

Marc-Andre Fleury isn’t getting any younger and Malcolm Subban regressed quite a bit from his debut season as a backup netminder at the NHL level last season.

Managing playing time in the crease is something to keep in mind and we’ll take a closer look in a minute.

For now, Vegas stands in a divisional spot in the playoffs in the Pacific. Not nearly as dominant as last season, but keeping up with the legitimate(?) playoff contenders in an otherwise weaker division compared to the rest of the league.

Without further ado, here’s a look at the remaining 42 games (now 41) on the season and what to expect from the latest forecast.

Keep in mind, there are many variables that can and will change what goes down from now through the end of the regular season in April, like trades, injuries, general lineup changes, roster moves and anything else unbeknownst to the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet that generates this forecast.

My degree is in communication– not math. It’s “not my fault”.

If a player meets the forecasted stats, then they’ve met expectations. If they exceed their forecasted stats, then they’ve exceed expectations.

And of course, if a player does not live up to the latest forecast, then something went awry (the player could’ve been injured, been unlucky or regressed– a.k.a. didn’t meet expectations).

Puck luck cannot be predicted, but general trends and estimated gut feelings can indicate a sense of what’s to come based on the results of each and every scoresheet night-in and night-out.

Vegas Golden Knights Forecast Through 40 Games (42 Games Remaining)

(Just click on the image if you’re having trouble seeing it– WordPress changed their layout so there’s no more slideshow options.)

Every set of blessings comes with a set of curses and this year, that rings truer more than ever before for the Golden Knights. Of course, it’s only their second season in franchise history, but it’s still true.

William Karlsson (24-26–50 expected totals) is having a “down” year compared to last season’s breakout career-year of 43 goals and 35 assists (78 points). Reaching the 50-point plateau is still respectable, but doesn’t scream any guarantees of being on the first line should the postseason roll around.

Head coach, Gerard Gallant, has enough top-six forward depth to play around with if Karlsson starts to head south, considering Alex Tuch‘s expected 22-28–50 totals, Paul Stastny‘s expected 14-22–36 totals and Max Pacioretty‘s expected 21-22–43 totals.

Despite the ever-consistent qualities of Jonathan Marchessault (27-33–60 expected totals) and Reilly Smith (17-32–49 expected totals), this year’s Golden Knights team point spread is more spread out.

As it is, while Marchessault should lead in goals (27), assists (30) and points (60) and Karlsson should be second in goals (24) and points (50), one would think Smith would be second or third in whatever stats Marchessault and Karlsson aren’t leading in.

However, Tuch’s expected point outcome (50) is tied with Karlsson for the second-most points behind Marchessault and Tuch is expected to rank third on Vegas’ roster in goals behind Marchessault and Karlsson with Smith a distant 5th behind Pacioretty’s 21 expected goals this season.

While the offense isn’t as impactful from the forwards, the blue line has really come into its own in Vegas.

Shea Theodore’s expected 8-29–37 totals will be the best of his teammates and fellow defenders in a Golden Knights uniform, leading Colin Miller (5-27–32 expected totals) and Nick Holden (7-17–24 expected totals).

Nick Holden. That’s right. Holden is ahead of Nate Schmidt (5-18–23 expected totals) in the latest forecast.

But that speaks to Holden’s resiliency in his career and the chemistry Gallant has found in his pairing every night– coupled, of course, with the fact that Holden is seeing more time on the ice (in the literal “games played” sense) than he has the last couple of seasons with the New York Rangers and Boston Bruins.

He is a durable top-four defender that’s still in his athletic prime and it is exactly that kind of depth that can take teams deep into a Stanley Cup Final run.

In goal, Marc-Andre Fleury should land around a 2.61 goals against average and .911 save percentage in a season in which he has been overworked thus far.

He will continue to be overworked unless Malcolm Subban regains his footing, Gallant argues for calling someone up from the Chicago Wolves (AHL) or Golden Knights General Manager George McPhee makes an acquisition for a suitable backup option if all else fails.

Fleury has played in 35 of the 40 games up to this forecast. He’s since played in 35 out of the 41 games played by the club this season.

Subban has played in six games and is 0-5-0 in that span. His expected outcomes are a 2.76 GAA and .907 SV%– both below average goaltending the backup role.

Whereas if Vegas wanted to try Oscar Dansk or Maxime Lagace without the pressures of coming into the dressing room in an emergency recall situation– unlike last season– a little healthy competition for the backup role might nudge Subban in the right direction and take off some of Fleury’s workload.

It’s not that Fleury can’t handle 50-plus games anymore as a starting goaltender, but rather, it’s just that he shouldn’t be relied on for about 85% of the games in the regular season as is his current going rate.

DTFR Podcast #136- We’ve Got The Future Blues

More on the Arizona Coyotes latest debacle with Seattle expansion looming, Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith did something never done before, the Calgary Flames rise in the Western Conference and the St. Louis Blues dismal season. Bob Murray and the Anaheim Ducks made a few moves– signing Murray to an extension, claiming Chad Johnson off waivers and a minor trade.

Plus, Nick and Connor review the last 15 years of first round picks by the Pittsburgh Penguins and do a deep dive on their future and what it might look like.

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes)Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

DTFR Podcast #135- Welcome to Seattle

This week’s episode is chock full of coffee infused, Seattle inspired, artisanal Seattle expansion discussion in addition to William Nylander’s new deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Plus, waivers and trades are rampant this time of year, Tom Wilson: The Bad and the Bad Things That Happened This Week, Chuck Fletcher was hired as General Manager of the Philadelphia Flyers and a 15-year first round draft pick look back of the Los Angeles Kings.

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes)Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

DTFR Podcast #132- Hall of Guardians and Turtlenecks

The 2018 Hockey Hall of Fame Class was inducted on Monday, plus we remember the NHL Guardians and celebrate Joe Thornton’s milestones. Tomas Plekanec retired– leaving us a turtleneck to pass on ceremoniously– and Milan Lucic was fined $10,000.

The Pittsburgh Penguins’ plight comes with an extension for General Manager Jim Rutherford, while the Los Angeles Kings battle the injury bug in net (we finished recording before Wednesday’s trade between the two clubs).

Meanwhile, Tom Wilson is back, a concussion lawsuit was settled, the 2019 NWHL All-Star Game was announced, Jakob Chychrun got a six-year extension and Nick and Connor discuss when they’ll eventually let their kids (if they ever have any) play contact sports.

Support the show on Patreon.

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes)Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.