Tag: Ryan MacInnis

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Columbus Blue Jackets 2021-22 Season Preview

2020-21 record 18-26-12, 48 points

8th in the Discover NHL Central Division

Missed the postseason for the first time since 2016

Additions: F Sean Kuraly, F Zac Rinaldo, F Jakub Voracek (acquired from PHI), D Jake Bean (acquired from CAR), D Adam Boqvist (acquired from CHI)

Subtractions: F Cam Atkinson (traded to PHI), F Zac Dalpe (signed with FLA), F Mikhail Grigorenko (KHL), F Mikko Koivu (retired), F Ryan MacInnis (signed with BUF), F Stefan Matteau (signed with COL), F Cliff Pu (ICEHL), F Kole Sherwood (signed with OTT), F Daniel Zaar (KHL), D Adam Clendening (signed with PHI), D Michael Del Zotto (signed with OTT), D Seth Jones (traded to CHI)

Still Unsigned: F Brandon Dubinsky, F Calvin Thürkauf (NL, CBJ reserve list)

Re-signed: F Patrik Laine, F Alexandre Texier, D Gavin Bayreuther (expansion, SEA, then signed as UFA with CBJ), D Mikko Lehtonen

Offseason Analysis: First off, where do we even start with how hard this offseason has been for the Blue Jackets organization?

The loss of Matiss Kivlenieks is paramount in how Columbus approaches the season– honoring their fallen teammate along the way– as well as where they go from here with respect to future decisions in the crease.

Kivlenieks had potential to be selected by the Seattle Kraken at the expansion draft. He had potential to become the Blue Jackets’ backup in the near future if the team had moved Joonas Korpisalo or Elvis Merzlikins prior to choosing one or the other next July anyway as both Korpisalo and Merzlikins are pending-unrestricted free agents.

In what’s become an all too familiar reminder lately, tragedy, as with death, is part of life.

He was a kind soul that was taken from us too soon.

Columbus welcomed home Dublin, Ohio native, Sean Kuraly on a four-year contract worth $2.500 million per season as the 28-year-old departed his bottom-six role with the Boston Bruins for more money and a change of scenery as his production dropped from 23 points (six goals, 17 assists) in 69 games in 2019-20 to nine points (four goals, five assists) in 47 games last season.

The Blue Jackets are hoping Kuraly’s arrival will feature a resurgence unlike when Riley Nash left Boston on a high-note and faltered in his Columbus tenure before being traded at last season’s trade deadline to the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Whereas Mikko Koivu joined Columbus for the 2020-21 season prior to retiring from the NHL after seven games in a Blue Jackets uniform, Blue Jackets General Manager, Jarmo Kekäläinen, can count on Kuraly to patch up the bottom-six– especially the fourth line– without the prospect of sudden retirement.

There’s a familiar face in town this season as Jakub Voracek is back in a Blue Jackets jersey for the first time since the 2010-11 season after Kekäläinen dealt Cam Atkinson to the Philadelphia Flyers in a one-for-one trade as the Flyers looked to save some salary for other important areas.

Voracek, like Kuraly, could use a bit of a resurgence as of late after his numbers dropped from 66 points in 78 games with Philadelphia in 2018-19 to 56 points in 69 games with Philly in 2019-20 and, most recently, 9-34–43 totals in 53 games with the Flyers last season.

Interestingly enough, the 32-year-old forward has never scored more than 23 goals in a season (set back in 82 games in 2013-14 with Philadelphia) and had three consecutive seasons of 20 or more goals from 2012-13 through 2014-15 and again from 2016-17 through 2018-19.

Columbus also grabbed the rights to Jake Bean in a trade with the Carolina Hurricanes and signed Bean to a three-year extension– incorporating the 23-year-old defender as part of the Blue Jackets’ blue line reform in the aftermath of one of the biggest trades this offseason.

After stating that he wouldn’t sign an extension with Columbus, Seth Jones was dealt to Chicago with a 2021 1st round pick (32nd overall, Nolan Allan) and a 2022 6th round pick for Adam Boqvist, a 2021 1st round pick (12th overall, Cole Sillinger), a 2021 2nd round pick that was when flipped to Carolina for Bean and a conditional 2022 1st round pick.

If Chicago wins one of the 2022 draft lotteries, then the 2022 1st round pick becomes a 2023 1st round pick and in any case, the Blue Jackets aren’t paying Jones $9.500 million per season when his new extension kicks in next season.

Except Columbus then turned around and gave Zach Werenski a six-year extension worth $9.583 million that goes into effect starting with the 2022-23 season through 2027-28.

At the very least, it shows that the Blue Jackets are willing to commit dollars and term to a player in their organization, though with the steep prices paid by teams for defensive talent via free agency, trades and in extensions this offseason, only time will tell if it was truly worth it.

Werenski is 24-years-old and will be turning 31 shortly after this extension expires.

The good news is that it’ll cover his defensive prime, as long as he can stay healthy and at that high level of competition.

The bad news is that Columbus could be playing with fire if their ongoing overhaul doesn’t pan out soon enough.

Speaking of the changing of seasons, Brad Larsen went from being an assistant coach with the team to being named the 10th head coach in franchise history after John Tortorella was told his contract would not be renewed.

Larsen’s been around in the Blue Jackets organization since the 2010-11 season when he was named as an assistant coach with the Springfield Falcons (AHL). He spent two seasons in that role before becoming the Falcons’ head coach from 2012-14, prior to being called up to being behind the bench in Columbus as an assistant coach from the 2014-15 season through 2020-21.

Perhaps Patrik Laine can get a chance to relax and play his game his way– as with the rest of the young Blue Jackets players– growing and developing in accordance with their preferred styles instead of being told to conform to a universal 200-foot style game.

That’s not to say that Tortorella’s tenure with Columbus wasn’t worth it, but rather to point out that it takes the right kind of players to perform under a certain structure and the Blue Jackets shifted away from that over the years.

Offseason Grade: C

Columbus didn’t do anything irrational and avoided the potential salary cap hell that might come with Jones’ extension in Chicago given his recent decline.

That said, they also then willingly gave Werenski what Jones was asking for and then some because surely they weren’t afraid of history repeating itself or anything.

Regardless, Kekäläinen still has about $10.4 million in cap space for 2021-22, which means they won’t necessarily be good enough for playoff contention, but that’s the point.

Either Columbus will get lucky and strike it rich with what they’ve got, the systems Larsen develops and the new additions here and there or they’ll fall further in the standings and get lucky in the 2022 Draft Lottery.

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Blue Jackets Forecast NHL Nick's Net Stats Forecasts

Columbus Blue Jackets 2020-21 Forecast and 20-Game Update

Welcome back to another exciting rendition of “let’s trust the guy with a degree in communication to do some basic math stuff”.

As you are hopefully already aware, I kept the 2019-20 forecasts under wraps simply because I didn’t have the time and/or motivation to write up an explanation for each and every one of them.

Even still, I’m “behind” on 2020-21 posts given that the Columbus Blue Jackets have already reached the 20-game mark of the season.

That’s why we’re looking at both what the expectations were coming into the condensed 56-game schedule, as well as how things are holding up after the first, well, almost half the season.

If you’re a fan of numbers and things, you probably already read about this “catch-up format” in my first forecast for the Boston Bruins roster entering 2020-21. If you’re just a Blue Jackets fan, I’ve done my best to paraphrase my own writing, but you can go back and read it if you feel inclined.

As always, keep in mind that my degree is in communication and my minor was in sport management. My Intro to Stats class only fulfilled the math portion of my “general education” and met once-a-week at night for two-and-a-half hours in the fall 2013 semester.

I actually learned how to use the forecast function in Microsoft Excel in one of my sport management classes. Besides that, I got a “C” in that Intro to Stats class, so my credentials for doing this seem promising, right?

First year players are impossible to predict until they’ve had at least one National Hockey League game under their belt.

Young players that have had minimal NHL experience may also reflect “inflated” results– Liam Foudy’s forecasted assists entering the 2020-21 season has been highlighted for this reason.

Entering this season, he had only been part of two career NHL games and had one assist in that span. The forecasting function accounts for a player’s entire career and does some mathematics to come up with something over a predetermined number of games for the upcoming season (in this year’s case, 56).

In other words, Foudy’s forecast after 20 team games played should look a bit more “realistic”, for the lack of a better term.

A forecast is not the same as predicting pace.

Foudy has three assists in 12 games played in 2020-21, for example, and is forecasted to finish with about 11 on the season, whereas he is currently on pace for about eight helpers.

There are numerous variables that can, and will, impact a players’ performance throughout the year, including injuries, being a healthy scratch (or on the taxi squad), other American Hockey League related or waiver related transactions, sickness, COVID protocol, suspensions and general superstitions related to individual routines, beliefs, etc. (getting enough sleep before a game, wearing a certain lucky tie, using the same undershirt or shoulder pads for the last 13 years or whatever).

Players can get “hot” or “cold” at any point.

It’s not something that can be accounted for in a numerical forecast that sets aside the “eye test” until you try to figure out the nuances of how or why a player is playing the way they are playing.

In a perfect timeline, this forecast pretends nothing bad could ever happen and every Blue Jackets player lives up to their expectations. In reality, some will pan out, some will exceed expectations and some will fall short for whatever reason.

It’s an educated guess for an outcome in a sport that’s highly unpredictable due to its collectivistic nature and sheer puck luck.

Columbus Blue Jackets Forecast Through 0 Games (56 Games Remaining)

First up, let’s take a look at how things were expected to go coming into the 2020-21 season.

Prior to being traded to the Winnipeg Jets for Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic, Dubois was forecasted to lead Columbus in scoring with 16-22–38 totals this season.

New acquisition, Max Domi, was forecasted as a close second to Dubois with 37 points– leading the team in assists in the process with 25 (among NHL regulars last season, since Foudy technically was forecasted to lead in assists among Blue Jackets with 28).

Of course, Dubois was traded and Laine and Roslovic are off to hot starts with Columbus– scoring goals in bunches when they find the scoresheet, it seems. We’ll get to that in a minute.

Cam Atkinson was forecasted to score 19 goals prior to the start of the 2020-21 season, which leads Dubois’ 16 forecasted goals and Gustav Nyquist’s 14 forecasted goals on the roster.

Dubois, of course, was traded and Nyquist is out due to injury for most of this season, so… that checks out.

On defense, Zach Werenski and Seth Jones were expected to continue to lead with the way with 33 and 27 points, respectively, from the blue line.

Both defenders are expected to amass 21 assists this season– good enough for the third most forecasted among Blue Jackets skaters entering this season.

In the crease, John Tortorella will have to find the right balance between Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins.

There’s potential for a really solid goaltending duo in Columbus if Korpisalo is the starter and can best his 2.66 forecasted goals against average, as well as his forecasted .911 save percentage, while Merzlikins manages to find a way to reach his 2.35 forecasted GAA and .923 forecasted SV%.

Of course, after 20 team games played, Merzlikins is currently out with an upper body injury, so time will tell if he can return to form.

Columbus Blue Jackets Forecast Through 20 Games (36 Games Remaining)

Through 20 games of the 2020-21 season, the Blue Jackets are three points outside of the last playoff spot in the Discover NHL Central Division, trailing the Chicago Blackhawks for this season’s 4th place cutoff line.

The acquisition of Laine and Roslovic have been quite a welcome sight for Columbus fans, though consistency from the rest of the lineup remains to be an issue.

Laine, however, is currently forecasted to lead the team in goals (26) and points (46), while Roslovic is on track for 10-17–27 totals, which is about what he had in 71 games with the Jets last season (29 points).

Using the current forecasted totals, Roslovic is on track for about .551 points per game this season. He had .408 points per game with Winnipeg in 2019-20.

Atkinson remains in the top-three in scoring, trailing Laine in goals and points with 20 forecasted goals and 39 forecasted points, respectively, while Oliver Bjorkstrand is currently forecasted to amass 15-21–36 totals (the third most on the current roster).

On the blue line, Jones leads the way among defenders in points (32), as well as all skaters in assists with 27 forecasted assists through 20 team games played in the 2020-21 season.

Werenski is more in line with what you’d expect from a young defender of his caliber (8-16–24 forecasted totals) and has missed time due to injury, so that’s clearly a factor in his forecasted drop from before the season began to now.

In the crease, Korpisalo is sure to get more starts than Merzlikins as the latter is currently injured.

Korpisalo’s current forecast yields a goals against average between 2.59-2.63, while Merzlikins is on track for a 2.29-2.33 in however many games he ends up getting.

Why the range in GAA?

That’s new for this season.

It’s just to show a range between what the forecasted total is according to the model and what the adjusted forecast shows (calculated based on the forecasted goals allowed/forecasted minutes multiplied by 60, as one would traditionally do with goals allowed/minutes played multiplied by 60 to determine GAA).

I’m no statistician and I felt like there might be a way to try to get a better read on how things are going for goaltenders (with or without enough necessary data to yield a “realistic” result).

Don’t make any bets using only this forecast. If you’re a professional, you probably already know that.

Anyway, Korpisalo has a forecasted range between .912 and .913 in save percentage through 20 team games played and Merzlikins is on track for between a .923 and a .924 in SV%.

Again, a similar principle applies here.

One end of the range is the straight up forecast, while the other is influenced by forecasted saves/forecasted shots against.

Well, that does it for this forecast. Tune in after 40 team games played to see how things might go down the stretch (the final 16 games this season).

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NHL Nick's Net Previews

Columbus Blue Jackets 2019-20 Season Preview

Columbus Blue Jackets

47-31-4, 98 points, 5th in the Metropolitan Division

Eliminated in the Second Round by Boston

Additions: F Marko Dano, F Gustav Nyquist

Subtractions: F Matt Duchene (signed with NSH), F Ryan Dzingel
(signed with CAR), F Mark Letestu (signed with WPG), F Artemi Panarin (signed with NYR), F Lukas Sedlak (KHL), F Sam Vigneault (signed with Cleveland, AHL), D Tommy Cross (signed with FLA), G Jean-Francois Berube (signed with PHI), G Sergei Bobrovsky (signed with FLA), G Keith Kinkaid (signed with MTL)

Still Unsigned: D Adam McQuaid

Re-signed: F Ryan MacInnis, F Sonny Milano, F Justin Scott, D Scott Harrington, D Ryan Murray, D Zach Werenski, G Joonas Korpisalo

Offseason Analysis: After going all-in at the trade deadline, the Columbus Blue Jackets went all-out on trying to keep their recently acquired talent in town– as well as their biggest stars Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky from leaving altogether.

Unfortunately for Columbus, that “high-end” talent had “high-rise” on the mind and then some.

Bobrovsky informed General Manager, Jarmo Kekalainen, that he didn’t intend to re-sign with the club early in the season, Panarin turned down more money for The Big Apple, Matt Duchene was building a house in Nashville anyway and Ryan Dzingel fell victim to coaching decisions that limited his playing time.

All of them left the Blue Jackets.

Whether you believe in their core (Pierre-Luc Dubois for Leader of the Free Universe!) or not, Columbus is going to face a setback this season.

Head coach, John Tortorella, is right in his analysis of the team in that the roster had something going en route to their playoff run that was cut short in the Second Round by the Boston Bruins.

Columbus was shaping up for something special– their first playoff series win over the Tampa Bay Lightning, at least– if not more this season and in the coming years.

As much as fans like Tortorella’s approach to speak his mind about everything, there are times when it backfires.

Dzingel didn’t betray the Blue Jackets organization by signing with the Carolina Hurricanes when he wasn’t getting ice time in the first place. Plus, he didn’t technically leave a “winning” team to go elsewhere to win if the team that he signed with (Carolina) made it further in the postseason than Columbus did.

The Hurricanes made the Eastern Conference Final. The Blue Jackets did not.

Sure, Panarin joined the New York Rangers and Bobrovsky joined the Florida Panthers, but both of those teams missed the playoffs altogether last season. Tortorella has a point to be made about those two players, however, his point is that of a TV analyst’s mindset.

When the Blue Jackets broadcast approaches Bobrovsky’s exit, they can talk about how he betrayed a “culture that was committed to Columbus/winning the Cup this season” or whatever.

They get paid to do that– to please the watchful eyes in Columbus’ ownership box.

When the mantra comes from Tortorella, he is seen as out of touch with his players– that he couldn’t get them to “buy-in” and win, not that he couldn’t communicate with them and coach them effectively for better or worse.

It’s bulletin board material that makes sports fans tune in to ESPN for other sports and NBC between periods.

What did Stephen A. Smith say now? Why does Mike Milbury look like he wants to punch Jeremy Roenick in the face?

Because of their opinions, their “hot takes” and their ability to sway fan bases to and from narratives driven by ratings, owners and us and them mentality.

Tortorella had a stint with NHL Network before becoming head coach in Columbus. He’s a quintessential analyst that’s deserving of respect for his musings.

But sometimes his coaching style intersects with his analytical mind.

Sometimes his brash statements don’t translate well with his message, the medium it’s on (TV, Twitter or the like) and sometimes we forget how Toe Blake, Scotty Bowman, Punch Imlach or Art Ross utilized their power to drum up the local media, verbally abuse their players, etc. from a different era.

Because it’s Tortorella, because he has a fire to win, because he’s already won it before and wants to win it again– there’s a whole host of reasons why people often react with such strong visceral opinions the way they do to Tortorella, Mike Babcock and others in the league.

Columbus has one thing on their mind from this offseason– moving forward.

Offseason Grade: F

Last season might have been one last hurrah for the Blue Jackets’ current setup. Kekalainen gave Tortorella all the pieces to push for a deep run, Tortorella botched the lineup at times, certain players couldn’t elevate their game at other times– it was all too soon for an organization and fans that have been yearning for playoff success for almost 20 years.

They didn’t make any changes behind the bench and Kekalainen still has his job. It was a risk worth taking, but now there’s consequences to pay at this season’s end if ownership doesn’t see growth in what’s left behind. Columbus failed to retain what could’ve been this offseason and their consolation prize was Gustav Nyquist.

A one-year setback won’t hurt them. Two years might.

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Columbus Blue Jackets 2018-19 Season Preview

Columbus Blue Jackets

45-30-7, 97 points, fourth in the Metropolitan Division

First Wild Card in the East, lost in First Round to Washington (4-2)

Additions: G Jean-Francois Berube, D Adam Clendening, D Tommy Cross, LW Anthony Duclair, C Liam Foudy (’18 1st round pick, signed ELC), C Ryan MacInnis, C Riley Nash, D Dillon Simpson

Subtractions: LW Matt Calvert (signed with COL), D Taylor Chorney (signed with HC Lugano), D Ian Cole (signed with COL), D Cameron Gaunce (signed with TB), D Jack Johnson (signed with PIT), C Mark Letestu (unsigned UFA), RW Thomas Vanek (signed with DET)

Re-signed: RW Oliver Bjorkstrand (3-year, $2.5M), LW Boone Jenner (4-year, $3.75M), D Ryan Murray (1 year, $2.825M)

Offseason Analysis: The Jackets enjoyed a successful, if not slightly underwhelming ’17-’18 campaign, where all-time high hopes were somewhat cooled by some notable underachieving seasons from players like Boone Jenner, Brandon Dubinsky and even captain Nick Foligno. Fortunately these were offset somewhat by terrific years from players like rookie standout Pierre-Luc Dubois, emerging Norris Trophy candidate Seth Jones, and superstar Artemi Panarin. They’d close out the regular season on a 15-4-2 run over their final 21 games to lose out to Philadelphia for the final Metropolitan Division spot by a single point, instead drawing the first Wild Card spot and a date with the Washington Capitals.

The Jackets shocked everyone by taking Games 1 and 2 of the series in Washington, both in thrilling overtime fashion, to head back home with a 2-0 hold on the series. Then came “The Promise”. Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin told the media they’d be back in Washington for Game 5 with the series tied. They did just that, and rode the momentum on through the Blue Jackets, and everyone else in their way as they went on to grab the first Stanley Cup in franchise history. This was no consolation prize in the minds of Jackets fans, though, as losing to the eventual Stanley Cup champions is sort of a calling card in Columbus’ recent history. *throws another dart at a poster of Sidney Crosby*

Now, with another disappointing playoff performance on their record, a list of notable pending free agents on their plate, and the ever-looming Sergei Bobrovsky and Artemi Panarin contract situations on their hands, the Columbus brass faced a rather trying offseason. But, as has been his MO over the years, GM Jarmo Kekalainen wasn’t about to panic. Or really show any sort of human emotion of any kind. I think that’s just a Finnish thing.

First came the NHL draft, where once again ‘J.K.’ and his staff went a bit off the board for their first round pick, drafting speedster Liam Foudy 18th overall. Generally projected as a very-late first or early second round pick, Foudy caught the eye of the CBJ scouting staff for his ability to inject speed into their lineup, something it could definitely use. While likely to spend at least another year in Juniors, Foudy did ink his entry level contract over the summer.

When free agency opened, the Jackets very quickly lost longtime roster stalwarts Jack Johnson (fans weren’t that upset) and Matt Calvert (fans held memorial services), along with rentals Thomas Vanek, Ian Cole, and Mark Letestu. Kekalainen quickly nabbed penalty-killing specialist Riley Nash to replace Letestu’s bottom-six depth. Initially his $2.75 million cap hit over the next three years seemed slightly steep for a guy who projects as a third-line center at best, but with the raised cap and resulting numbers we saw on some other signings/re-signings over the summer, the deal has aged fairly well. A few days later the Jackets would pick up troubled youngster Anthony Duclair on a league-minimum $650 thousand, one-year deal. Likened to the ‘show me’ contract given to Sam Gagner by the Jackets a few years ago that paid dividends, Columbus is hedging bets on Duclair’s willingness to shed some of the baggage he’s accumulated over the past few seasons and work hard to get back to being the player that scored 20 goals and 44 points as a 20-year-old. If he can, he’s an absolute steal. If he can’t, he’s barely even a blip on the salary cap radar, and could be placed on waivers without much concern.

Kekalainen decided to let his organizational depth fill the rest of the vacancies in the roster (which has definitely created one of the more intriguing training camps to watch). Instead, he invested a good portion of his time and effort over the summer into attempting to secure the future services of Artemi Panarin and, to a lesser extent, Sergei Bobrovsky. Bobrovsky only recently broke his silence about his situation, revealing that management knows his plans after his contract expires next summer, but declined to make public that information.

Cryptic.

The Panarin situation was much more public, and highlighted by Kekalainen flying to France to visit with Panarin and his agent while the dynamic winger was on vacation. No real progress was made on a contract extension, as Panarin seems likely to either test the waters of free agency or possibly even return to Russia after this season. Some reports indicated he’d prefer to play in a larger market than Columbus, or perhaps at least a market with a beach (he did spend the last month or so of the offseason training with friends Nikita Kucherov and Andrei Vasilevskiy in Tampa), but no solid proof of any of this ever emerged.

The prospects of a future in Columbus that include neither their most potent offensive weapon nor their multi-time Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender are not fun to consider for the fanbase, but they do appear to be looming. In net, the Jackets do at least boast one of the strongest goaltending prospect pools in the league, but that’s far from a sure thing. Apart from possibly young Vitaly Abramov, they certainly don’t have anyone currently in the pipeline that could replace Panarin’s offensive production.

Getting away from the doom and gloom, let’s circle back to the earlier claim of a very interesting training camp.

The Jackets’ camp roster includes over 60 players, and there are some very tight battles for more than a few roster spots. The race for bottom-six wing minutes is hotly contested. Players with Blue Jackets tenure like Sonny Milano, Markus Hannikainen, and Lukas Sedlak now find themselves being challenged by newcomer Duclair, along with a serious pool of prospects like Sam Vigneault, Kevin Stenlund, Eric Robinson, Jonathan Davidsson, Paul Bittner and even 2018 draft picks Foudy and Traverse City tournament standout Trey Fix-Wolansky.

While I don’t see the 2018 picks making the roster (more time in Juniors would serve their development better than limited fourth-line NHL minutes), the rest are interesting. Duclair obviously adds an element of offense and speed, but has also shown he’s not afraid to play with an edge as well. Vigneault and Stenlund are both every bit of 6-foot-5 and well over 200 pounds, but lack some speed and are both natural centers, a position that should be filled on the roster. Bittner is a superior skater to either of the ‘Twin Towers’, still comes in at 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, and is a natural wing, but has struggled to adapt his offensive game to the pro level to this point. Robinson played one game with the Jackets last year coming in as a free agent after captaining the Princeton Tigers in his senior year where he put up 31 points in 36 games. His pro game has yet to really be seen, so training camp and preseason will be important for him. To me, the most interesting name at forward is the Swedish RW Davidsson. An effortless skater, he brings plenty of speed and agility to the lineup, and has shown to be an extremely intelligent playmaker, but he’s definitely not a physical presence nor a defensive stalwart, so not who you’d normally have in a bottom-six role. He could probably use another year in either the SHL or AHL to continue his physical and defensive development, but if he impresses in camp he could at least get a look.

My projected forward lines are:
Panarin – Dubois – Atkinson
Jenner – Wennberg – Bjorkstrand
Milano – Dubinsky – Foligno
Sedlak – Nash – Anderson
Extra forwards Hannikainen and Duclair

On defense, Columbus has the luxury of one of the best top pairs in the league, with Seth Jones alongside blueline sniper Zach Werenski. Werenski set the franchise record for goals as a defenseman last year while playing basically the entire year with a destroyed shoulder. Offseason surgery will keep him slightly limited in camp and likely out of all preseason games, but he’s projected to be 100 percent ready to go for the beginning of the season. After the top pair, though, things are pretty fluid, with approximately seven players vying for the four remaining spots. Three of the four (David Savard, Ryan Murray and Markus Nutivaara) are pretty well locked into the lineup, just more a question of where exactly they’ll sit on the depth chart. But the competition for the No. 6 spot and final roster spot as the seventh man is tight. Dean Kukan and Scott Harrington both saw limited NHL action with the Jackets last year, with Kukan putting up a respectable 4 points in 11 games and Harrington proving to be a reliable No. 6 down the stretch run. Adam Clendening only saw five games with Arizona last year, and has bounced between the leagues a lot in the past few seasons, but his last full season in the AHL saw him put up 59 points in 74 games. He’s not always the most defensively reliable guy, but he’s the best puck mover of the contenders. My personal pick for not only the Jackets roster but also for the No. 6 slot is 6-foot-5 Gabriel Carlsson. While still working to put some bulk on his lanky frame, Carlsson has already adapted well to the North American game, being a steady presence on the Cleveland blueline last year in the AHL. While certainly not an offensive producer, he’s very poised with the puck and is a confident passer. He skates well and uses his lengthy reach to make sure he’s always in good position. He’s also capable of playing either side of the ice.

I have the defense shaping up like this:
Werenski – Jones
Murray – Savard
Carlsson – Nuutivaara
Extra defenseman Harrington

In net, things are unlikely to look any different than last year. While J.F. Berube was brought in to challenge for the backup position after Joonas Korpisalo had a bit of regression last year, he’ll likely head to Cleveland as Korpi’s deal is one-way. Elvis Merzilikins and Daniil Tarasov are both top goaltending prospects, but they’ll continue their development overseas for the time being.

Offseason Grade: C+

Though there seems to be a general sense that more should have been done to improve the team over the summer, the handful of moves made were smart. The big thing here is that there is a lot of potential turmoil brewing heading towards next year. Kekalainen was likely smart not to hedge any knee-jerk bets on this season and instead rely upon his strong organizational depth to improve the team.

If the youngsters make an impact, and you get a rebound season from a vet or two, suddenly even the prospect of losing your two Russian dynamos seems less daunting. Panarin is definitely trade bait for a big return before the deadline if you need to go that route, and if the team gets better from within, that leaves big chunks of cap space to bring in other pieces if necessary.

While they’ll obviously look to improve their fortunes (particularly in the playoffs) this year, it will really be next offseason where the brass will have to earn those shiny new contracts they received this month.

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Arizona Coyotes 2018-2019 Season Preview

 Arizona Coyotes

29-41-12, 70 Points, Last in the Western Conference

Additions: RW Hudson Fasching, F Alex Galchenyuk, W Michael Grabner, D Jacob Graves, LW Adam Helewka, F Vinnie Hinostroza, RW Marian Hossa, D Jordan Oesterle, D Robbie Russo

Subtractions: D Andrew Campbell (traded to Chicago), F Max Domi (traded to Montréal), C MacKenzie Entwistle (traded to Chicago), D Joel Hanley (signed by Dallas), D Brandon Hickey (traded to Buffalo), C Marcus Kruger (traded to Chicago), C Ryan MacInnis (traded to Columbus), C Jordan Maletta (traded to Chicago), F Zac Rinaldo (signed by Nashville), D Luke Schenn (signed by Anaheim), RW Mike Sislo (rights traded to Buffalo, signed by NYI), D Kyle Wood (traded to San Jose)

Offseason Analysis: Whether or not last season was a success for the Coyotes is an answer that is dependent upon who you ask.

For those that didn’t pay any attention to the club, they’ll probably point to Arizona’s fourth-straight losing season and sixth-straight missing the playoffs and say this organization is a total disaster. However, those willing to look a bit deeper are seeing feint glimpses of the light at the end of what has been a fairly long and dark tunnel for the Desert Dogs.

Yes, it is true Arizona started the season with an 0-10-1 record, but it is also true that the baby-faced Coyotes posted a decent 17-9-3 effort in their final 29 games played, a mark that placed 12th in the NHL from February 8 to the regular season finale.

The main reason for that surge was none other than first-year starter G Antti Raanta, who salvaged what was a middle-of-the-road .916 save percentage through his first 29 showings (officially the 18th-best among the 37 netminders with at least 22 appearances by February 7) and turned it into a solid .93 season mark with a commanding .95 save percentage – including three shutouts – over his final 18 showings. Though Arizona does boast a quietly improving defense (headlined, of course, by Oliver Ekman-Larsson), Raanta continuing his success and joining the ranks of the Pacific Division’s goaltending elites (it’s a pretty stacked list) will be integral to the Coyotes’ chances of advancing beyond their already ensured seventh place (nobody’s finishing behind Vancouver, after all).

Speaking of defense, one desert-dwelling blue liner I will have my eye on this season is 20-year-old Jakob Chychrun. Entering his third season in the league, I’m waiting for 2016’s 16th-overall pick from Boca Raton, Fla. to fully validate his high selection, as well as his position on the Coyotes’ second pair and special team units. Chychrun posted a +2 rating with 4-10-14 totals on a club that yielded 251 goals against last season (the 11th-most in the NHL in 2017-18), but I’m holding onto faith that he can maintain his defensive prowess while also getting his offensive numbers closer to those he posted in juniors (during the 2016 OHL playoffs, Chychrun managed 2-6-8 totals in seven games played, not to mention the 27 goals and 82 points he registered in 104 regular season games in that league).

Of course, no discussion about the Yotes’ attack is complete without at least acknowledging 20-year-old phenom F Clayton Keller, the young man who finished third in last season’s Calder Trophy voting behind winner C Mathew Barzal (NYI) and runner-up RW Brock Boeser (VAN). With 23 goals and 65 points in his first full NHL season, Keller has already proven to be an important offensive building block the Coyotes can work with as they construct their future. Like many sophomores – especially on young teams like Arizona – Keller will likely regress this campaign, but I’m most focused on seeing if he can score at least 15 goals again this year, as well as improve on his 42 assists.

The main reason for focusing so much on last season’s results is largely due to the Coyotes’ quiet offseason this summer. With the biggest name departing Arizona being Domi (he was traded to Montréal) and his nine goals, Galchenyuk (the Yotes’ return for Domi) and Grabner represent the Coyotes’ largest splashes – and are likely improvements on the former first-rounder.

Both have registered 30+ goals in a season before, but expectations are certainly going to be higher for the former Canadien considering he’s all but ensured a spot in Arizona’s top-six. That being said, the Rangers weren’t expecting 52 goals in 135 games played (.53 points per game during his NYR career) from Grabner when they signed him to a two-year deal in 2016, so perhaps the soon-to-be 31-year-old still has enough pep in his step to cause some real offensive damage from his likely spot in the bottom-six to compete for top-six minutes.

Of course, that’s the gamble the Devils made when they traded a defensive prospect and a second round draft pick to their bitter rivals (the first-ever trade between NJD and NYR), but perchance General Manager John Chayka’s luck will be better than counterpart Ray Shero’s and Grabner will provide more than the two goals in 21 games played with Jersey.

Offseason Grade: C+

Chayka surely knows his team is likely at least a season away from making a real playoff push, so I’m okay with Arizona’s limited activity this summer that focused on bringing in players with a bit of term on their contracts. The main goal for the Coyotes this campaign is to build on their late season success from last year and to gain more NHL experience for the youngsters – hopefully leading to further growth. If they can do just that, Phoenix could become quite the destination for next summer’s unrestricted free agents.