Down the Frozen River

Tag: Ron Hainsey

  • Trading Frederik Andersen is the wrong idea

    Something’s brewing in Toronto and it’s the annual “let’s talk trading Frederik Andersen because surely he’s the reason for a lack of playoff success as a team in recent years”. Ah, the sight of Maple Leafs in the fall.

    Andersen is entering the final year of his five-year deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs that he signed back on June 20, 20216– shortly after his rights were traded to Canada’s largest city by the Anaheim Ducks for a 2016 1st round pick (Sam Steel) and a conditional 2017 2nd round pick (Maxime Comtois).

    His cap hit is a reasonable $5.000 million, but on a roster that’s currently projected to spend $82,549,325– which, you know, is slightly over the league’s $81.5 million upper limit– something’s got to give.

    If Maple Leafs General Manager, Kyle Dubas, was serious about trading Andersen heading into the season, he likely would’ve found a partner by now and made a deal– regardless of stagnant revenue streams due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

    But sure, let’s say the Leafs are set on trading Andersen in order to become cap compliant.

    First of all, who are you going to get in return?

    And second, the playoffs would be out of the picture altogether.

    The answer to the first question is easy since most of the free agent goaltenders have been scooped up and Toronto’s not likely to take a flyer on Cory Schneider, Craig Anderson, Jimmy Howard or Ryan Miller.

    In 2010, maybe. In 2020, definitely not.

    None of those goalies had a goals against average better than 3.10 or a save percentage better than a .907.

    One of those goalies, however, had those stats exactly and it’s the one that spent last season as a backup in 23 games with the Anaheim Ducks (Miller).

    Naturally, Dubas would have to look to trade Andersen instead, which means you might be looking at a deal with the Vegas Golden Knights for Marc-Andre Fleury or (let’s get crazy) send Andersen back to the team that originally drafted him before he re-entered the draft and was taken by the Ducks in the 3rd round (87th overall) of the 2012 NHL Draft– the Carolina Hurricanes.

    Why the Hurricanes? Because James Reimer, of course.

    Andersen had a 29-13-7 record in 52 games last season (all starts), while amassing a 2.85 goals against average, a .909 save percentage and three shutouts in the process.

    Though he recorded two more shutouts in 2019-20 than he did in 2018-19, his goals against average and save percentage were worse than his 2.77 GAA and .917 SV% in 60 games two season’s ago.

    It’s important to remember, however, that in Toronto had guys like Ron Hainsey and Nikita Zaitsev on the blue line to help suppress the oncoming attack in 2018-19.

    Hainsey joined the Ottawa Senators in free agency on July 1, 2019, while Zaitsev was packaged with Connor Brown and Michael Carcone in a trade with (you guessed it) the Senators on the same day for Cody Ceci, Ben Harpur, Aaron Luchuk and a 2020 3rd round pick that originated from the Columbus Blue Jackets (Alex Laferriere).

    The Leafs made the trade to save $4.500 million in cap space that they then turned around and gave to Ceci. Kind of.

    Trading Zaitsev wasn’t necessarily about saving money in the immediate future as much as it was about lopping off his contract from the books before his modified no-trade clause kicked in.

    The now 29-year-old Russian defender is under contract through the 2023-24 season with Ottawa, whereas Ceci was a restricted free agent at the time and agreed to a one-year deal with the Leafs.

    Dubas had to protect his club’s ability to integrate young prospects on the blue line and remain competitive in future trade or free agent markets, so Zaitsev was a casualty of league parity.

    That, or fans, coaches and media members alike were tired of watching him in Toronto.

    Meanwhile, the Leafs went in a different direction for their blue line last season with the additions of Ceci in the Zaitsev trade and Tyson Barrie at a discount as their alleged biggest prize in the Nazem Kadri trade with the Colorado Avalanche.

    While Sens fans knew what Toronto was getting themselves into with Ceci’s playing ability as a bottom-pairing defender, Barrie experienced a significant drop-off in his game.

    Barrie amassed 14-45–59 points in 78 games with Colorado in back-to-back seasons with at least 55 points before the trade and was a minus-3 in 2018-19. He put up 39 points (five goals, 34 assists) in 70 games with Toronto and was a minus-7.

    For the record, Ceci had 7-19–26 totals in 74 games with the Sens and was a minus-22 in 2018-19, then mustered eight points (one goal, seven asissts) in 56 games with the Leafs– but at least he was a plus-7.

    So it’s not entirely Andersen’s fault for instability in front of him.

    The defensive depth wasn’t the same from 2018-19 to 2019-20 in front of Andersen, and, of course, Toronto fired Mike Babcock and promoted Sheldon Keefe as head coach after Fleury made a big save on Nov. 19, 2019 in Vegas.

    Which is actually the perfect segue back to what it would mean for the Leafs to trade Andersen.

    If Dubas flipped Andersen to the Golden Knights for Fleury strictly because of the “playoff experience” narrative, well, it’s worth noting that despite his improved performance from 2019’s 3-4 record, 2.70 GAA, .909 SV% and one shutout in seven games to 2020’s 3-1 record, 2.27 GAA and .910 SV% in four games, Robin Lehner still outperformed Fleury.

    Lehner amassed a 9-7 record in 16 games for Vegas in the 2020 postseason with a 1.99 GAA, a .917 SV% and four shutouts in that span.

    Andersen is 31, while Fleury is 36.

    In simple terms, one is still in their goaltending prime and the other is in the twilight of his playing days– even if he is able to return to form after the second-straight season of faltering numbers.

    Fleury’s first season in Vegas saw him rock a 29-13-4 record in 46 games with a 2.24 GAA, .927 SV% and four shutouts despite missing time due to injury.

    In 2018-19, Fleury was overplayed. He notched a respectable 35-21-5 record, 2.51 GAA, .913 SV% and eight shutouts in 61 games, but couldn’t remain hot enough against the San Jose Sharks in the 2019 First Round.

    In 2019-20, Gerard Gallant and, later, Peter DeBoer handled his number of games better, playing Fleury 49 times, but the 36-year-old netminder amassed a 27-16-5 record with a 2.77 GAA, .905 SV% and five shutouts.

    Season-by-season, Fleury has shown signs of regressing.

    Even if he is able to win one more Cup, his role on that team is likely best suited as the backup, if not at least in the 1B role of a 1A/1B tandem.

    In his last three seasons with the Pittsburgh Penguins, Fleury faced 4,677 shots against and made 4,292 saves (.918 SV%) while amassing 16 shutouts from 2014-17.

    In his first three seasons with the Golden Knights, Fleury’s faced 4,520 shots and made 4,135 saves (.915 SV%) while racking up 17 shutouts.

    The ageless wonder would be a great addition to the Maple Leafs if Toronto could only have Andersen and Fleury.

    But there’s a little pesky number that ruins any hope of swinging a deal unless Dubas is willing to part with larger pieces in a true “hockey trade”.

    It’s Fleury’s cap hit.

    He carries a price tag of $7.000 million against the salary cap through next season (2021-22) and, like Andersen, has a modified no-trade clause.

    Vegas is also feeling the stress of the salary cap, considering they’re currently on the books for $82,474,104 and need to dump salary before the season can likely begin in January.

    No, Max Pacioretty’s $7.000 million cap hit or Jonathan Marchessault’s $5.000 million cap hit won’t do the Leafs any favors if Toronto somehow decided they’d be fine with Dubas including a piece of their core– like Mitch Marner’s $10.893 million cap hit, for example– in the hypothetical transaction.

    Both teams would still be over the cap unless they’d be able to make separate trades elsewhere to shed salary.

    Even still, if someone is trying to pry Fleury from Vegas, they’re likely asking the Golden Knights to retain some salary or involve a third team in the deal for that sole purpose.

    So if Fleury’s out, what about Reimer? You know, the last guy to bring “stability” to the crease in Toronto before Andersen.

    Reimer hasn’t posted a sub-2.50 goals against average since his 2.49 with the Maple Leafs in 32 games prior to being traded to the Sharks ahead of the 2016 trade deadline.

    He also hasn’t bested his .918 SV% from the time he spent with the Leafs that season.

    It might be tempting to resort to Reimer as a starter, but he’s been worse than Andersen at a fraction of the workload that the current Leafs starter gets from year-to-year.

    Thanks to the pandemic shortened regular season last year, Andersen played under 60 games for the first time since his days in Anaheim.

    Toronto’s defense is nothing like Carolina’s defense.

    Despite Reimer’s impressive 14-6-2 record in 25 games with the Hurricanes last season, there’s no guarantees he’d be able to match that or better with Morgan Rielly taking on the roles of Jaccob Slavin, Dougie Hamilton, Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei and Co. combined for the Maple Leafs.

    Besides, Jack Campbell’s 3-2-1 record in six games with Toronto last season came with a 2.63 GAA and a .915 SV%, which, on its own is about the same as Reimer’s 2.66 GAA and .914 SV% with the Canes last season, but at a cheaper price for a backup caliber goaltender (Campbell is signed through 2021-22 at $1.650 million per season, while Reimer is a pending-UFA at season’s end with a $3.400 million cap hit).

    But remember Campbell spent last season with the Los Angeles Kings and Maple Leafs and finished 2019-20 with a combined 11-12-3 record in 26 games for Los Angeles and Toronto, while amassing a 2.80 GAA and a .904 SV% in the process.

    Unless Dubas signed Michael Hutchinson and Aaron Dell to compete with Campbell and (hypothetically) Reimer to save some money by trading Andersen this season, then Toronto’s goaltending woes would only get worse.

    That’s right, we haven’t even started talking about who the eventual “goalie of the future” might be for the Leafs, but that’s a subject for another time (spoiler alert: the jury is out on that one for now).

    It’s ride or die with Andersen this season.

    And next summer’s free agent goalie market doesn’t look like it’s any better.

    Unless a familiar Maple Leafs draft pick returns to Toronto, but he still wears No. 40 on the Boston Bruins for now.

  • Duclair scores twice in Sens, 5-2, victory over B’s

    The Boston Bruins kicked off a four-game road trip with a, 5-2, loss to the Ottawa Senators on Monday night at Canadian Tire Centre.

    Anders Nilsson (8-8-1 record, 3.03 goals against average, .913 save percentage in 17 games played) made 38 saves on 40 shots against (.950 SV%) in the win for the Senators.

    Bruins goaltender, Tuukka Rask (13-3-3, 2.19 GAA, .927 SV% in 19 GP) stopped 23 out of 26 shots faced for an .885 SV% in the loss.

    Boston fell to 20-5-6 (46 points) on the season, but remains atop the Atlantic Division, while Ottawa improved to 13-17-1 (27 points) and stayed in 7th place in the Atlantic.

    The B’s fell to 8-4-1 on the road as a result of Monday night’s loss.

    The Bruins were without the services of Kevan Miller (knee), Karson Kuhlman (fractured tibia) and Zach Senyshyn (lower body) on Monday, while Patrice Bergeron returned to the lineup since missing the last seven games with a lower body injury.

    As a result of Bergeron’s return, B’s head coach, Bruce Cassidy, made a few corresponding adjustments to his lineup from Saturday night’s, 4-1, loss to the Colorado Avalanche.

    Bergeron was reunited with Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak as his first line wingers, while David Krejci returned to his role as Boston’s second line center with Jake DeBrusk at left wing and Danton Heinen at right wing.

    Charlie Coyle resumed his third line center duties with Anders Bjork at his left side and Brett Ritchie on his right side, while the fourth line trio of Joakim Nordstrom, Sean Kuraly and Chris Wagner went untouched.

    On defense, the Bruins placed Steven Kampfer on waivers Sunday for the purpose of assignment to the Providence Bruins (AHL). The 31-year-old defender cleared waivers Monday afternoon and was assigned to Providence without issue.

    With John Moore back in the lineup in his regular role as a top-six blue liner, Connor Clifton remained a healthy scratch for the B’s on Monday.

    Clifton was joined by David Backes and Par Lindholm in the press box on Boston’s short list of healthy scratches against Ottawa.

    Artem Anisimov (4) caught the Bruins on a bad line change and charged into the attacking zone, firing the puck past Rask at 1:35 of the first period– giving Ottawa the early, 1-0, lead.

    Dylan DeMelo (5) and Thomas Chabot (16) had the assists on Anisimov’s goal.

    Late in the opening frame, a wacky bounce off the glass behind the Boston net caught Moore off-guard as the puck ended up on Senators forward, Chris Tierney’s stick.

    Tierney quickly flipped the puck to Anthony Duclair (14) for the goal as the Sens forward was streaking into the slot– giving Ottawa a two-goal lead, 2-0.

    Duclair’s first goal of the game was assisted by Tierney (12) at 15:44.

    Roughly a couple minutes later, Marchand sent Pastrnak up-ice on a rush with Bergeron as the Bruins duo broke-in on an unguarded scoring opportunity.

    Pastrnak sent a pass to Bergeron (9) for the one-timer goal in his first game back from injury while Nilsson dove in desperation.

    Bergeron’s goal cut the Senators lead in half, 2-1, and was assisted by Pastrnak (19) and Marchand (27) at 17:48.

    Nevertheless, Ottawa entered the first intermission with the lead on the scoreboard, 2-1, and dominating in shots on goal (14-8), blocked shots (9-2), takeaways (5-2), giveaways (11-4), hits (11-8) and faceoff win percentage (53-47).

    There were no penalties called in the first period.

    The Senators struck once again early in the period when Rask mishandled the puck behind the net and ended up turning possession over to Vladislav Namestnikov.

    Namestnikov slipped the puck over to Tierney (4) for a mostly empty net goal, giving Ottawa a, 3-1, lead at 1:21 of the second period.

    Namestnikov (8) had the only assist on Tierney’s goal.

    About a minute later, Coyle tripped Senators forward, Logan Brown, and was sent to the penalty box at 2:33, presenting Ottawa with the first power play of the night.

    The Sens didn’t convert on their first skater advantage and took a penalty of their own in the vulnerable minute after when Namestnikov tripped Coyle at 5:21.

    Ottawa then took a pair of penalties of their own at 13:08, when DeMelo caught Pastrnak with a high stick and at 17:53, when DeMelo tripped Marchand.

    In both cases, the Bruins failed to convert on the power play.

    Through 40 minutes of action in Ottawa, the Senators led the B’s, 3-1, on the scoreboard, despite an impressive, 16-9, shots on net in the second period alone advantage for Boston.

    The Bruins led in total shots on goal, 24-23, after two periods, while the Sens led in every other statistical category, including blocked shots (16-3), takeaways (8-2), giveaways (13-7), hits (15-14) and faceoff win% (60-40).

    Ottawa was 0/1 on the power play entering the third period, while Boston was 0/3 on the skater advantage.

    Midway through the final frame, Boston’s Brandon Carlo tripped Tyler Ennis and was sent to the sin bin at 9:35 of the third period.

    Ottawa’s ensuing power play didn’t last for long as Chabot caught Charlie McAvoy with a high stick at 9:58, resulting in a 1:37 span of 4-on-4 action for the two clubs, followed by an abbreviated skater advantage for Boston.

    Moments later, Pastrnak tripped Jean-Gabriel Pageau and was charged with a minor in fraction at 14:46.

    Ottawa’s power play was halfway over when Colin White tripped Carlo and presented both teams with another span of 4-on-4 for one minute at 15:46.

    While on the power play with 3:13 remaining in regulation, Cassidy pulled Rask for an extra attacker.

    Seconds later, Pageau (16) notched a shorthanded empty net goal to make it, 4-1, for the Senators.

    Namestnikov (9) and Ron Hainsey (5) had the assists on the goal at 17:02.

    Less than a minute later, DeBrusk (7) slid a loose puck into the net from point blank as both teams scrambled in front of Nilsson at 17:45.

    DeBrusk’s power play goal cut Ottawa’s lead to two-goals and was assisted by Pastrnak (20) and Marchand (28).

    Once more, Boston resorted to pulling their goaltender for an extra skater.

    It did not go well as Duclair (15) tallied his second goal of the night– and second empty net goal for the Sens– officially at 19:59 (but actually with less than one-second left on the clock) of the third period.

    DeMelo (6) and Tierney (13) had the assists as the Senators finished off the Bruins, 5-2.

    Boston finished the night leading in shots on goal, 40-28, including a, 16-5, advantage in the third period alone, while Ottawa led in everything else– except for hits, which were tied, 20-20– including blocked shots (29-6), giveaways (17-9) and faceoff win% (55-45).

    The Senators finished Monday night 0/3 on the skater advantage, while the Bruins went 1/5 on the power play.

    As a result of the loss, Boston is now on a three-game losing streak.

    Meanwhile, in the last four games, Pastrnak has three assists and no goals.

    The Bruins are now 4-4-3 when trailing after two periods this season.

    Boston faces the Washington Capitals and Tampa Bay Lightning on back-to-back nights in Washington, D.C. on Wednesday and in Tampa on Thursday before wrapping up their four-game road trip (0-1-0) in Sunrise, Florida on Saturday in a duel with the Florida Panthers.

  • DTFR Podcast #174- Coaching Conundrums

    DTFR Podcast #174- Coaching Conundrums

    Some firsts, 100s, broken fingers and pointing fingers– who should be concerned about their job security behind the bench? Plus Cap’n and Pete are back.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

  • DTFR Podcast #170- 2019-20 Season Preview: Atlantic Division

    DTFR Podcast #170- 2019-20 Season Preview: Atlantic Division

    Brayden Point re-signed with the Tampa Bay Lightning, a bunch of other RFAs signed extensions, the Boston Pride were sold, Dan Girardi retired and DTFR’s season previews continued with the Atlantic Division.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

  • Toronto Maple Leafs 2019-20 Season Preview

    Toronto Maple Leafs

    46-28-8, 100 points, 3rd in the Atlantic Division

    Eliminated in the First Round by Boston

    Additions: F Pontus Aberg, F Kenny Agostino, F David Clarkson (acquired from VGK), F Tyler Gaudet, F Alexander Kerfoot (acquired from COL), F Kalle Kossila, F Aaron Luchuk (acquired from OTT), F Nick Shore, F Jason Spezza, F Garrett Wilson, D Tyson Barrie (acquired from COL), D Cody Ceci (acquired from OTT), D Kevin Gravel, D Ben Harpur (acquired from OTT), D Jordan Schmaltz (acquired from STL)

    Subtractions: F Nick Baptiste (signed with Toronto, AHL), F Connor Brown (traded to OTT), F Michael Carcone (traded to OTT), F Tyler Ennis (signed with OTT), F Gabriel Gagne (signed with Allen, ECHL), F Josh Jooris (NLA), F Dakota Joshua (traded to STL), F Nazem Kadri (traded to COL), F Patrick Marleau (traded to CAR), F Chris Mueller (signed with TBL), D Andreas Borgman (traded to STL), D Jake Gardiner (signed with CAR), D Fedor Gordeev (traded to MIN), D Ron Hainsey (signed with OTT), D Vincent LoVerde (signed with Hartford, AHL), D Igor Ozhiganov (KHL), D Calle Rosen (traded to COL), D Jordan Subban (EBEL), D Nikita Zaitsev (traded to OTT), G Eamon McAdam (signed with Binghamton, AHL), G Garret Sparks (traded to VGK)

    Still Unsigned: D Steve Oleksy

    Re-signed: F Mitch Marner, D Martin Marincin, G Michael Hutchinson

    Offseason Analysis: Kyle Dubas had a busy offseason as general manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs. His main priority was re-signing Mitch Marner, which finally wrapped up on Sept. 13th.

    Marner signed a six-year extension worth $10.893 million per season. Whether or not he’s actually worth that much money is a different question, but the fact of the matter is it didn’t help the Maple Leafs.

    Together with Auston Matthews, John Tavares and William Nylander, Marner and the other three make up $40,489,366 of Toronto’s salary cap.

    This season’s salary cap ceiling is $81.500 million.

    Three of the seven highest paid players in the league are on the Leafs and the four highest paid Leafs eat up almost half of Toronto’s salary cap.

    At the time of Marner’s signing, the Maple Leafs were $13,365,199 over the salary cap.

    Granted, Pontus Aberg and Frederik Gauthier were assigned to the Toronto Marlies (AHL), while Nathan Horton, David Clarkson, Zach Hyman and Travis Dermott are all expected to be placed on the long-term injured reserve to allow the Leafs to remain cap compliant.

    Things should get interesting, however, once Hyman and Dermott return from injury, not that their salaries are that expensive, but rather the day-to-day cap operations and paper transactions necessary to make things work should be a lot of fun for Toronto’s front office to balance.

    Mike Babcock is still behind the bench in Toronto after three straight seasons of First Round exits– including back-to-back Game 7 losses on the road against the Boston Bruins in 2018 and last season.

    Dubas was active in the trade market to 1) free up expendable salary to re-sign Marner and 2) improve his roster from last season to this season.

    He may have unintentionally 3) stunted the team’s growth in the process.

    Toronto seven trades involving players this offseason, including three pretty big deals for the Maple Leafs.

    Patrick Marleau, a conditional 2020 1st round pick and a 2020 7th round pick were shipped to the Carolina Hurricanes in exchange for a 2020 6th round pick at the 2019 NHL Draft on June 22nd.

    Rather than buyout Marleau’s contract and face cap penalty, Toronto was able to convince Carolina to take on his salary and offer him the chance to play for the Hurricanes or buy him out. Marleau refused to play for the Canes, so now Carolina is saddled with his buyout penalty.

    In the process, if the Maple Leafs yield a top-10 pick in the 2020 Draft, the conditional 1st rounder in the trade becomes a 2021 1st round pick.

    In place of Marleau, the Leafs signed Jason Spezza to a league-minimum, one-year, $700,000 contract. Spezza will likely play on the fourth line in a limited role as Marleau would have begun to see less and less time on ice at this stage of his career.

    Dubas knew Toronto wasn’t going to be able to keep Jake Gardiner and maintain a happy relationship with Nikita Zaitsev as Zaitsev had already requested a trade.

    As such, Dubas packaged Zaitsev with Connor Brown and Michael Carcone in a trade with the Ottawa Senators in exchange for Cody Ceci, Ben Harpur, Aaron Luchuk and a 2020 3rd round pick on July 1st.

    Ceci then signed a one-year extension– worth $4.500 million– as a restricted free agent with the Leafs.

    For that same price and eight points less than Ceci had last season, Zaitsev is at least signed through 2023-24 at the fixed rate of $4.500 million.

    Zaitsev has broken the 30-point plateau before as a defender, while Ceci never has– though he did record 26 points with Ottawa last season.

    The fact of the matter is that if Toronto was trying to save money this season on a defender, they didn’t.

    And if they were thinking “maybe we can find a cheaper replacement in Ceci”, the fact that they’re already paying the defender in his prime what Zaitsev was already making doesn’t do them any long-term favors as Ceci’s cap hit is expected to go up– especially if the current ceiling remains about the same until the next collective bargaining agreement is negotiated in 2022.

    But for all that the loss of Gardiner did to the special teams in Toronto, at least Dubas was able to find a sweet deal with the Colorado Avalanche.

    The Maple Leafs traded Nazem Kadri, Calle Rosen and a 2020 3rd round pick to Colorado for Tyson Barrie, Alexander Kerfoot and a 2020 6th round pick on July 1st.

    The Avs retained some salary on Barrie’s contract, which– you guessed it– also expires at the end of this season, but at least Toronto can afford $2.750 million right now as opposed to a more significant cap hit.

    To their credit, the Maple Leafs negotiated a four-year extension with Kerfoot worth $3.500 million per season, which is $1.000 million less than Kadri’s cap hit.

    Barrie is a versatile defender that excels on the power play and fills the void left behind by Gardiner’s departure.

    Clearly, while Dubas has, in fact, made improvements to the team, he’s also made minor tweaks and delayed the inevitable headaches that he or the next general manager of the Maple Leafs is sure to face.

    But at least this time around Toronto is convinced they have the team that they’ve been planning for the last five years to “win now”.

    The younger players are more experienced, the salary spent is at the ceiling and Babcock– a Stanley Cup winning coach who last won the Cup 11 years ago with the Detroit Red Wings in 2008 (a rather different era and style of the game than what it is today)– are all ready for the challenge of making it out of the First Round to show they’ve at least made some progress.

    One definition of insanity is “doing the same thing and expecting a different result” and if something doesn’t change the end result in the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs for Toronto, then…

    At the very least, last season’s backup, Garret Sparks, was traded to the Vegas Golden Knights for Clarkson’s contract and a 2020 4th round pick and nobody can blame Marner for being a “greedy holdout” anymore.

    Offseason Grade: B-

    The Marner contract is not great, but the other moves made by the Leafs this offseason mean that they’re actually trying. There is a plan in place that they remain committed to– constantly evaluating and re-evaluating talent for the overall intended improvement of the organization.

    Whether or not Toronto is sure to win the Cup this season remains to be seen. Every year there’s always Cup front runners on paper, but the on-ice product and results vary. This team is capable of winning the Cup, but they still have a lot of work to do to earn it.

  • Ottawa Senators 2019-20 Season Preview

    Ottawa Senators

    29-47-6, 64 points, 8th in the Atlantic Division

    Missed the postseason for the second straight year

    Additions: F Artem Anisimov (acquired from CHI), F Ryan Callahan (acquired from TBL), F Tyler Ennis, F Jordan Szwarz, D Ron Hainsey, D Nikia Zaitsev (acquired from TOR)

    Subtractions: F Chase Balisy (DEL), F Brian Gibbons (signed with CAR), F Oscar Lindberg (NLA), F Aaron Luchuk (traded to TOR), F Jim O’Brien (DEL), F Zack Smith (traded to CHI), D Cody Ceci (traded to TOR), D Stefan Elliott (KHL), D Ben Harpur (traded to TOR), G Mike Condon (traded to TBL)

    Still unsigned: F Darren Archibald, F Magnus Paajarvi, F Adam Tambellini, D Erik Burgdoerfer, D Justin Falk

    Re-signed: F Michael Carcone (rights acquired in a trade with TOR, then re-signed), F Nick Paul, F Brady Tkachuk, F Colin White, D Christian Wolanin

    Offseason Analysis: Senators owner, Eugene Melnyk, promised roster turnover in that awkward video with defender, Mark Borowiecki, last season and boy what a turnover the Sens have had since last year.

    Bobby Ryan’s $7.250 million cap hit is still the highest on the team, despite Melnyk’s well-known intention on trading his biggest contract remaining– even though General Manager, Pierre Dorion, can’t even find a team that’s looking to get to the salary cap floor to send him to.

    Meanwhile, Ottawa has $15.325 million in dead cap space on the long-term injured reserve (Ryan Callahan, Marian Gaborik and Clarke MacArthur), though knowing Melnyk, he won’t bother to urge Dorion to place his assets on the long term injured reserve and would rather shelf the cap space for the sake of keeping the payroll down.

    There’s nothing else to say about this organization.

    It’s explicitly out there that they’re not even going to give a sniff of an effort until at least “2021” when they plan on being competitive for a period of about four years.

    On the bright side, Colin White signed a six-year extension worth $4.750 million per season, which will take him right up to unrestricted free agency after the 2024-25 season.

    If he’s not traded before then, he’s at least provided himself with just enough insurance to get through the first chapter of his career as a Senator.

    Dorion traded Cody Ceci as part of a package to the Toronto Maple Leafs and is looking to recreate the Dion Phaneuf trade from the Leafs to Ottawa, in which Phaneuf’s career was rejuvenated before later being traded to the Los Angeles Kings.

    This time around, Nikita Zaitsev is looking for a turnaround at 27-years-old, but he won’t be doing it without any familiar company as 38-year-old, Ron Hainsey, was not kept around in Toronto and joined the Sens this July.

    Even D.J. Smith is jumping ship as a Maple Leafs assistant coach and taking up his first NHL head coaching job behind the bench for the Senators this season.

    Ottawa’s defense is still hurting after trading away Erik Karlsson last September, however this season’s defensive pairings with Zaitsev and Hainsey joining Thomas Chabot, Christian Jaros and perhaps Erik Brannstrom throughout the full season will only help improve the younger blue liners in the long-run.

    In the grand scope of things, the Senators are going to need to find Craig Anderson’s replacement as the 38-year-old starting goaltender intends to finish his career in Ottawa, but has one-year remaining on his current contract.

    If there’s any positive takeaway from last season, it’s that despite finishing last in the overall league standings, the Sens managed to have only the second-worst goal differential with a minus-60.

    They also were the only team without 30 or more wins last season.

    Offseason Grade: D+

    The defense is better than it was last season, but it’s not the greatest in the league. The addition of Artem Anisimov from the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for Zack Smith strengthens the Senators down the middle, but for how long (Anisimov is signed through 2020-21 and currently 31-years-old). Even with Brady Tkachuk and a plethora of youth in the system– good or bad– there’s still a general sense of existential dread in Ottawa.

    Nonetheless, there’s no excuse for an intentionally drawn out rebuild with no legitimate end goal in sight. It’s like they’re trying to be the Detroit Lions of the NHL.

  • 2019-20 Atlantic Division Outlook

    As the entire hockey world awaits training camp action next month, let’s make some (un)educated guesses about the upcoming season that will totally pan out because everything always goes as expected. (It doesn’t.)

    The projected standings below are only a forecast.

    They are based on recent indications– as well as the last few seasons of stats– and cannot account for variations in roster construction (a.k.a. trades and free agency moves).

    There’s a lot of variables that will turn the tables upside down, including transactions, injuries and otherwise. Anything can happen.

    As always, it’s more important to remember 1) the spread and 2) the positioning.

    Just how many points separate the projected division winner from the last wild card spot (the spread) and where a team is supposed to finish in the division standings (the position) can imply that things aren’t always what they seem.

    A team that’s projected to win it all still has to play an 82-game regular season, qualify for the playoffs and go on to amass 16 wins in the postseason.

    Projected Standings After ZERO Months

    Atlantic Division

    1. p-Tampa Bay Lightning, 109 points
    2. x-Boston Bruins, 105 points
    3. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 91 points
    4. Florida Panthers, 89 points
    5. Montreal Canadiens, 89 points
    6. Detroit Red Wings, 84 points
    7. Ottawa Senators, 78 points
    8. Buffalo Sabres, 71 points

    Tampa Bay Lightning: Pros and Cons

    The Lightning are annual favorites among the experts to win the Stanley Cup, so it’s no surprise, really, that they haven’t yet. There’s either too many expectations to live up to or there’s too much of a casual atmosphere from season-to-season.

    You know what they say when you assume.

    Just like the Washington Capitals and their 2018 Stanley Cup championship, it’s better for the Bolts if nobody is talking about them. Prior to the Caps winning in 2018, there was a “Cup or bust” mantra that just didn’t work.

    Nothing is willed without hard work and humility.

    That’s not to say Tampa doesn’t work hard or isn’t humble, but rather, they must lose on the big stage repetitively until everyone expects them to fail. That’s when they’ll go on a run.

    They’ve managed to keep their roster together (granted, RFA center, Brayden Point, is still unsigned) while trimming the fat (gone are the days of Anton Stralman and Dan Girardi on the blue line) and are still Stanley Cup front-runners, but they likely won’t get back to the 60-win plateau in back-to-back seasons.

    The Lightning will still get to 50 wins for the third season in-a-row, have Nikita Kucherov set the league on fire in scoring and yield out-of-this-world goaltending from Andrei Vasilevskiy before the real season starts– the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

    How would the Lightning fail?

    Everyone keeps talking about the Lightning as if they’re some godsend (too much hype, remember?). That, or General Manager Julien BriseBois blows up the roster and/or Jon Cooper is fired as head coach.

    Boston Bruins: Pros and Cons

    The Bruins core remains strong among their forwards and as long as they’re able to negotiate an extension with RFAs Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo without any bumps in the road, then their defense is pretty sound too.

    Jaroslav Halak signed a two-year deal last summer, so the 1A/1B tandem of Tuukka Rask and Halak in the crease seems fine for another run in 2019-20.

    Boston exceeded expectations in 2017-18 and went under the radar in 2018-19– though they managed to amass only 10 losses in regulation since Jan. 1st, which means they were actually pretty loud in the points percentage column.

    Injuries come and go.

    If the Bruins are able to stay healthy instead of dropping like flies to their 12th defenseman on the depth chart, they might actually pick up a few more points than they did last season.

    With Bruce Cassidy as head coach, things should remain status quo in the regular season, but Boston still needs to address their top-six forward problem.

    David Pastrnak can play on the first or second line, but on any given night that leaves one of their top two lines in need of a scoring winger.

    General Manager Don Sweeney managed to patch a hole at the third line center– acquiring Charlie Coyle as last season’s trade deadline loomed– and Coyle was one of their better players in their 2019 Stanley Cup Final postseason run.

    But with a couple of depth signings for bottom six roles in the offseason (Par Lindholm and Brett Ritchie), everyone getting another year older and David Backes’ $6.000 million cap hit through 2020-21 still on the books, Boston’s hands are tied.

    How would the Bruins fail?

    There’s enough bark in the regular season, but not enough bite for a deep postseason run. It’s harder than ever before to make it back to the Stanley Cup Final in back-to-back seasons– and that’s before you consider age, injuries and regression.

    Toronto Maple Leafs: Pros and Cons

    Toronto has Auston Matthews as their second best center. Yes. Second best. Why? Because John Tavares enters the second year of his long-term seven-year deal that he signed last July.

    That alone will continue to keep the Leafs afloat with a strong 1-2 duo down the middle.

    Regardless of the Mitch Marner contract negotiations (or lack thereof), the Maple Leafs are just fine with their forwards– having traded Nazem Kadri to the Colorado Avalanche and acquiring Alex Kerfoot in the process (Calle Rosen and Tyson Barrie were also swapped in the deal).

    Patrick Marleau is gone and it only cost Toronto a conditional 2020 1st round pick (top-10 lottery protected) and a 2020 7th round pick in the process, but an affordable Jason Spezza at league minimum salary ($700,000) on a one-year deal for fourth line minutes will do just fine.

    By puck drop for the 2019-20 season, the Leafs will save $10.550 million in cap space thanks to David Clarkson (yes, his contract’s back after a trade with the Vegas Golden Knights that sent Garret Sparks the other way) and Nathan Horton’s placement on the long-term injured reserve.

    The stars are aligning for Toronto to still need to get past the First Round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2004.

    With Kadri gone, however, perhaps they will be able to do so with or without Boston in the equation.

    How would the Leafs fail?

    They don’t sign Marner and they lose in another Game 7 because of it. There’s a lot of turbulence ahead for Toronto General Manager Kyle Dubas considering the Leafs have one defender under contract after 2019-20. If the team doesn’t breakout in the postseason, it’s really just status quo until proven otherwise.

    Florida Panthers: Pros and Cons

    The Panthers are beginning to ripen with a mix of youth and experience among their forwards, plus a defense that quietly does their job.

    They also added Noel Acciari, Brett Connolly, Anton Stralman and (most importantly) Sergei Bobrovsky to the mix.

    While Acciari’s $1.667 million cap hit through 2021-22 is a slight overpay for a fourth line center, at least it could be worse. Connolly’s making $3.500 million for the next four years and even Stralman has a cap hit of $5.500 million through 2021-22 when he’ll be turning 36 on August 1, 2022.

    Ok, so it was an expensive offseason for Florida– and that’s before you add the $10.000 million price tag for the next seven years of Bobrovsky in the crease.

    Yes, despite landing one of the better goaltenders in the league in free agency, General Manager Dale Tallon managed to make matters complicated after, say, the fourth year of Bobrovsky’s contract.

    Bobrovsky will be roughly 37-years-old by the time his contract with the Panthers expires and not everyone can be like Dwayne Roloson in the net forever.

    At least they drafted Spencer Knight (in the first round– a goaltending prospect curse).

    Though they missed the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs by 12 points for an Eastern Conference wild card spot, the Panthers are in a position to gain more than a few wins with new head coach (and three-time Stanley Cup champion) Joel Quenneville behind the bench.

    How would the Panthers fail?

    Florida’s already landed the biggest prize in head coaching free agency with Quenneville reuniting with Tallon in Sunrise. What could possibly go wrong (besides Tallon being replaced by a clone of Stan Bowman and then the Panthers go on to win three Cups without Tallon in command)?

    Montreal Canadiens: Pros and Cons

    Montreal didn’t get Matt Duchene or Sebastian Aho in free agency, so they got the next best thing– not overspending on July 1st.

    That’s not to say Duchene and Aho aren’t quality players, but rather just an observation of cap concerns for the Habs with Max Domi as a pending-RFA in July 2020 and the rest of Montreal’s future core (Ryan Poehling, Nick Suzuki, Victor Mete, Cayden Primeau and Jesperi Kotkaniemi) to consider going down the road.

    Granted, Aho could’ve sped the process up a bit if it weren’t for those pesky RFA rights and compensation in the CBA, right Montreal?

    The Canadiens need a legitimate number one center, but General Manager Marc Bergevin has been preoccupied restructuring the defense in the meantime.

    That’s not a bad thing.

    Shea Weber is 34 and under contract through the 2025-26 season, though after 2021-22, his base salary drops to $3.000 million in 2022-23 and $1.000 million from 2023-26 (meaning he could be traded with ease in a few years, despite his $7.857 million cap hit).

    But Karl Alzner and Jeff Petry are both over 30 and have no-trade and/or no-movement clauses in their contracts.

    At least free agent addition, Ben Chiarot, is 28-years-old, but he also carries a no-trade clause as part of his three-year deal.

    How would the Canadiens fail?

    Claude Julien inexplicably reverts back to his old ways and doesn’t play the kids, Carey Price is injured for most of the season and/or Bergevin overcompensates in a trade because of his failure to secure a free agent center.

    Detroit Red Wings: Pros and Cons

    Steve Yzerman has come home and is rightfully the General Manager for the Red Wings, but as we’ve seen in Tampa, his masterplan takes a little time.

    Detroit is four or five years out from being an annual Cup contender, but that doesn’t mean the Red Wings haven’t already sped things up in their rebuild.

    Trading for Adam Erne isn’t a grand-slam, but it does make the average age of the roster a tad younger.

    It also means that the Red Wings now have seven pending-RFAs on their NHL roster and roughly $37.000 million to work with in July 2020.

    How would the Red Wings fail?

    Having Yzerman in the front office at Little Caesars Arena is like adding all of the best toppings to a pizza. The only downside is that leftover pineapple is still on the pizza from all of the no-trade clauses delivered by the last guy.

    Ottawa Senators: Pros and Cons

    The Senators are looking to spend ba-by.

    Just kidding, they don’t plan on being good until 2021, so does that mean starting with the 2020-21 season or the following year in 2021-22?

    But they do have a ton of draft picks stockpiled including two in the 1st round in 2020, three in the 2nd round, one in the 3rd, 4th and 5th, a pair in the 6th and one in the 7th.

    Plus they have roughly $15.600 million in cap space currently and eight players under contract for next season that aren’t on the injured reserve.

    For some reason (Eugene Melnyk) current-RFA Colin White is still unsigned and 38-year-old, Ron Hainsey, was signed in free agency, but at least Cody Ceci is a Maple Leaf now.

    Oh and former Leafs assistant coach D.J. Smith is Ottawa’s head coach now. That’ll show them!

    How would the Senators fail?

    More importantly, how would Ottawa succeed?

    Buffalo Sabres: Pros and Cons

    Pro: The Sabres will probably be better than last season.

    Con: Ralph Krueger is Buffalo’s new head coach and nobody knows what to expect (he went 19-22-7 in the lockout shortened 48-game season with the Edmonton Oilers in 2012-13).

    Pro: Only eight skaters are under contract next season.

    Con: Only eight skaters are under contract next season, including Rasmus Ristolainen and nobody is sure whether or not the club is trying to trade him.

    Pro: Marcus Johansson!

    Con: Jimmy Vesey! (Only cost Buffalo two third round picks over three years to get him.)

    Pro: The average age of the roster is about 26.

    Con: Matt Hunwick is the oldest player at 34-years-old, followed by Carter Hutton at 33 and Vladimir Sobotka at 32.

    Pro: Royal blue in 2020!

    Con: It’s not until 2020.

    How would the Sabres fail?

    If Buffalo actually finishes last in the division, instead of any improvement whatsoever.

  • DTFR Podcast #164- The Free Agency Mega-Hour

    DTFR Podcast #164- The Free Agency Mega-Hour

    Nick, Cap’n and Pete recap the last two weeks of trades and first few days of free agency 2K19.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

  • DTFR Podcast #161- Battle For Gloria (Part Three- The Games Are Happening Part)

    DTFR Podcast #161- Battle For Gloria (Part Three- The Games Are Happening Part)

    The Battle For Gloria rages on with the Boston Bruins and St. Louis Blues tied 2-2 in the 2019 Stanley Cup Final. Nick and Pete also discuss the latest coaching moves (Dave Tippett, Bob Boughner, Marc Crawford), trades (Kevin Hayes) and rumors (Patrick Marleau, Nikita Zaitsev, Phil Kessel), while Nick introduces a new game segment that has Pete stumped.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

  • DTFR Podcast #159- Battle For Gloria (Part One)

    DTFR Podcast #159- Battle For Gloria (Part One)

    Nick and Pete recap the Ottawa Senators coaching hire, two extensions, the latest rumors and the 2019 Western Conference Final while teasing their 2019 Stanley Cup Final preview.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.