Down the Frozen River

Tag: Rielly

  • November 11 – Day 30 – Flyers bring the air to Air Canada Centre

    For the first time in a while, we have a busy Friday schedule – something I think we can all enjoy. Per usual, the action gets started at 7 p.m. (New Jersey at Buffalo and Philadelphia at Toronto [TVAS]) with Los Angeles at Ottawa (RDS) trailing half an hour later. 8:30 p.m. marks the puck drop of Washington at Chicago and tonight’s co-nightcaps, Winnipeg at Colorado and Dallas at Edmonton, get underway at 9 p.m. All times eastern.

    Lauri Korpikoski might be making his first return to Edmonton, the city he represented a season ago, but I’m more interested in the Flyers–Leafs game.

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    6-6-2 Philly enters the contest on a two-game win-less skid, most recently falling 3-2 in a shootout to Detroit. The Flyers are a strong offensive team, but almost out of necessity as they’ve given up the second-most tallies in the league.

    The fault lies nowhere along the blue line. The Flyers‘ defense allows only 27.5 shots to make it to the cage per game, led by Radko Gudas‘ 22-block efforts.

    No, the goals against rest solely on the goaltending. Be it Steve Mason or Michal Neuvirth (they’ve both started seven games apiece) in net, they’ve combined for a measly .875 save percentage and 3.39 GAA.

    As expected, the goaltending struggles have extended into the penalty kill. Only 79.1% of opposing extra-man opportunities have been nullified by the Flyers, which ranks ninth-worst.

    To put things bluntly, it is these two players holding this squad back. Many fans thought Neuvirth, who turned 28 in March, could continue to improve and potentially take over the starting job, but it appears last season was simply a break from his usual performance. It will be interesting to see if they try to work the trade market to bolster the back-end of a strong skating team.

    The best way to accent how good Philadelphia has been on offense is their power play. They’ve been successful on 28.3% of attempts, the second-best rate in the league. Claude Giroux has led the way on the extra-man opportunities, notching nine points with six assists. Completing the plays has been Wayne Simmonds, who has buried four power play goals.

    Hosting them this evening are the 5-5-3 Toronto Maple Leafs. They’re another team that has struggled to keep the opposition from burying the puck at will.

    Frederik Andersen has a 5-3-3 record, which is almost impressive given the fact that he has a season .897 save percentage and 3.41 GAA. What gives him a little bit of a pass in comparison to Mason and Neuvirth is that Toronto does not have anywhere near the defense playing in front of him.

    The defense allows 33.3 shots against per game, and only Morgan Rielly and Nikita Zaitsev and more than 20 blocks, with 28 and 22 respectively. Based on what Andersen was able to achieve last season in Anaheim with a good defense, Toronto would be wise to make a concerted effort to build up their blue line as they try to climb the table in the future.

    Surprisingly, the Maple Leafs are capable of shoring up the defense when they want to, but apparently for only two minutes at a time. Their penalty kill ranks ninth-best in the NHL, an impressive stat given their play at even-strength.

    One facet of the Maple Leafs offense that has worked particularly well has been their power play. Led by William Nylander‘s seven power play points on three goals, Toronto has been successful on 22.9% of their extra-man opportunities to rank seventh-best.

    Some players to keep an eye on this evening include Philadelphia‘s Giroux (11 assists [tied for fifth-most in the NHL]) and Jakub Voracek (15 points [tied for eighth-most in the league]) & Toronto‘s Nylander (eight assists, half of which were on the power play, and three power play goals for 12 points [all lead the team]).

    Vegas has picked the Leafs to win with a -103 line, but I think Philly walks away with the victory in this one. Since neither team can keep the puck out of their own net, the Flyers offense should be able to best Nylander and Auston Matthews‘ efforts.

    Hockey Birthday

    • Harry Lumley (1926-1998) – Apple Cheeks (seriously, that was his nickname!) played 803 games over his 16 seasons. Most of his time was spent in Detroit‘s net, where he earned a 163-105-56 record and won the 1950 Stanley Cup.

    Just as I expected, Dallas took advantage of a Calgary team that has struggled to keep points off the board to earn a 4-2 victory in yesterday’s Game of the Day.

    Korpikoski (Radek Faksa) struck the first goal for the Stars on a snap shot with 7:29 remaining in the first period. That lead doubled 3:04 later when First Star of the Game Jamie Benn (John Klingberg and Faksa) buried a backhand. It was the final goal of the first period, so Dallas took a two-goal shutout lead into the dressing room for first intermission.

    Calgary returned with a vengeance in the second frame, scoring both their goals within 3:31 of returning to the ice. Second Star Johnny Gaudreau (Third Star Brett Kulak and Sean Monahan) takes credit for both goals, the first struck 1:33 into the period. 1:58 later, he (Kulak and Michael Frolik) tied the game at two-all with a tip-in goal, the final tally of the second period.

    Benn’s (Tyler Seguin and Antoine Roussel) power play wrister 7:20 into the final period proved to be the game-winning goal. Dallas‘ lone insurance goal was an empty-netter courtesy of Roussel (Justin Dowling) with 54 seconds remaining in regulation.

    Kari Lehtonen earns the victory after saving 29-of-31 shots faced (93.5%), leaving the loss to Brian Elliott, who saved 18-of-21 (85.7%).

    Dallas‘ victory is only the second by a road team in the DtFR Game of the Day series in the last six days. It pulls the roadies within seven points of the home squads, but the homers still have a 18-11-3 record.

  • March 2 – Day 139 – The best versus, Laich, literally the worst

    The Minnesota Wild took command of the third period with three goals to beat the Colorado Avalanche 6-3, replacing them as the second wildcard in the process.

    It was the road Avalanche who scored the first goal, only 33 seconds into the game on a power play slap shot from Jarome Iginla, who was assisted by Tyson Barrie (his 32nd helper of the season) and Mikkel Boedker.  10:04 later, the Wild leveled the score with a wrister from First Star of the Game Nino Niederreiter (his 13th tally of the season), assisted by Second Star Jason Pominville.  That goal opened the floodgates for Minnesota, as Pominville scored only 1:01 later with a wrister of his own, assisted by Niederreiter (his 19th helper of the season).  The Wild ended the period with a 3-1 lead, as Erik Haula scored with 2:12 remaining, assisted by Matt Dumba and Marco Scandella.

    Colorado‘s best period was the second, as they accounted for both goals scored in the frame.  The first of those tallies was Chris Bigras’ first of the season at the 3:25 mark, assisted by Matt Duchene and Nathan MacKinnon (his 28th helper of the season).  The Avs leveled the game at three-all at the 12:33 mark with a Cody McLead wrister, assisted by Jack Skille and John Mitchell.

    Minnesota‘s game-winner found the back of the net 5:34 after resuming play from the second intermission, courtesy of Charlie Coyle, whose wrister was asssited by Third Star Zach Parise.  Coyle accounted for his own insurance goal, scored with 1:27 remaining in regulation on an empty net.  He was assisted by Ryan Suter (his 35th helper of the season) and Parise.  Niederreiter accounted for the final goal of the game, also an empty netter, with only 44 seconds remaining on the clock, assisted by Pominville (his 22nd helper of the season).

    Devan Dubnyk earns the win after saving 30 of 33 (90.9%), while Calvin Pickard takes the loss, saving  15 of 16 (93.8%).  He replaced Semyon Varlamov after a three-goal first period, saving only nine of 12 (75%).

    With Minnesota‘s win, the DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 62-34-13, favoring the home squads by 32 points over the roadies.

    There’s only three games on the schedule, with the action getting started at 7 p.m. eastern in Washington when Toronto pays the Capitals a visit.  8 p.m. eastern brings with it the Chicago at Detroit (NBCSN) puck drop, which is trailed by two hours by Montréal at Anaheim.

    Chicago–Detroit is the only game between teams currently qualifying for the playoffs, but the game that attracts my attention the most is actually Toronto at Washington, due to the return of longtime Capital Brooks Laich.

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    Washington Capitals LogoToronto has been featured in the Game of the Day series three times before tonight, with their most recent being a 2-1 overtime loss to the Red Wings on home ice on November 6 to set their series record at 0-2-1.  As you’d expect from the best team in the league, Washington has been featured a dozen times before tonight’s game, and own a 9-3-0 record in such games.  Their most recent in the series was February 18, a 3-2 overtime victory in Brooklyn.

    Laich joined the Washington Capitals in a mid-season trade during the 2003-’04 season from the Ottawa Senators in exchange for Peter Bondra, himself another longtime member of the Caps‘ organization.  He received his first consistent time with the senior squad in the 2005-’06 season, scoring 21 points in 73 games.  His breakout offensive season came two years later in 2007-’08, when he began his streak of 16+ goals and 16+ assists (31+ points) for five straight seasons.

    Although not the squad’s captain, Laich served as the team representative during the 2012 lockout.  This was due to his long career with the organization (in fact, his tenure was the longest active in all of Washington‘s sports teams), which ended up lasting 12 seasons before being traded to the Leafs before the trade deadline due to cap issues.

    Laich’s 21-30-10 Toronto Maple Leafs currently rank worst in the NHL, much less the Atlantic Division and Eastern Conference, and should already be preparing Auston Matthews’ locker for next season.  If you could say the team is being led by anything, it would have to be their defense, which ranks eighth worst in the league, as the offense is third worst.

    Although the Maple Leafs haven’t played well overall this season, they have done a relatively decent job of keeping shots off the goalkeepers, as only 1871 pucks have found their way to 7-16-3 Jonathan Bernier and co., of which they’ve collectively saved 91% for 182 goals against, eighth most in the league.  In the grand scheme of things, Toronto‘s penalty kill hasn’t been too bad this season, as their 80.3% kill rate, allowing 40 power play goals against, ranks 13th worst in the league.

    The real problem for the Leafs has been their offense.  Led by Nazem Kadri’s 209 shots, the Leafs have fired the puck a solid 1908 times, but only 7.4% have found the back of the net for 147 goals (led by Leo Komarov’s 18 tallies), third fewest in the league.  The Maple Leafs‘ power play almost perfectly reflects that, as their 14.43% success rate, good for only 28 power play goals (led by P.A. Parenteau’s six extra-man tallies), is worst in the league.

    Toronto is currently riding a two-game losing skid, with their most recent being a 2-1 loss to the Lightning on Monday.  At this point in the season, the Leafs should not be concerned about what wins do for them, as they should be more worried about bettering their odds for the Matthews sweepstakes.

    The 46-12-4 Washington Capitals not only lead the Metropolitan Division and the Eastern Conference, but they even lead the league by 13 points.  They’ve made it to that position by playing the best defense in the league, paired with the second best offense.

    Led by Karl Alzner’s 153 blocks, the Caps have allowed only 1760 shots to reach 39-7-3 Braden Holtby and co., of which they’ve collectively saved 92.3% for only 142 goals against, the fewest in the NHL.  That success has only slightly left them on the penalty kill, where their 83.94% kill rate, allowing only 31 power play goals, ranks fifth best.

    The offense, led by none other than Captain Alex Ovechkin, is only steps behind the defense.  Led by his 312 shots on goal, the Caps have fired the puck 1869 times, of which a whopping 10.6% have found the back of the net for 202 goals (led by Ovechkin’s 40 tallies), second most in the NHL.  Washington‘s power play is beyond deadly, successful on 23.71% of attempts for 46 extra man tallies (led by Ovechkin’s 16 power play goals), tops in the league.

    Washington played the Penguins last night, winning 3-2 on home ice.  With a win tonight, the Caps improve their lead in the division and conference to 18 points, and have the potential to improve their lead for the Presidents’ Trophy to 15 points.

    Washington currently leads the season series 2-0-0, but the Leafs did take them to a shootout in their first meeting in early November.  These squads more recently met on November 28 in Toronto, where the Caps earned a 4-2 victory.

    Some players to keep an eye on include Toronto‘s Kadri (22 assists and 209 shots [both lead the team]), Komarov (35 points,18 of which are goals, 13 at even strength and one short-handed, and 255 hits [all lead the team]), Parenteau (six power play goals and three game-winners [both lead the team]) and Morgan Rielly (17 even strength assists [leads the team]) & Washington‘s Nicklas Backstrom (41 assists [eighth most in the league]), Holtby (40 wins [leads the league], 2.22 GAA [tied for eighth best in the league] and .923 save percentage [10th best in the league]), Evgeny Kuznetsov (+30 [leads the league], 45 assists [tied for third most in the league] and 65 points [fifth most in the league]) and Ovechkin (40 goals [most in the league], +23 [tied for fifth best in the league] and 58 points [10th most in the league]).

    It doesn’t take much to determine that Washington should win this game easily.  The real question is the size of the goal differential.

  • November 6 – Day 31 – Hooray, it’s a divisional rivalry…

    The Minnesota Wild tried valiantly to level score with a two-man advantage, but were unable to put their third tally past First Star of the Game Pekka Rinne and fell 3-2 to the Nashville Predators.

    The Predators waited 36:06 before opening the evening’s scoring.  Mike Fisher earned the honors after taking an assist from Shea Weber and firing a snap shot past Dubnyk.  That score lit a fire under the Wild though, as Second Star Marco Scandella scored a power play goal, assisted by Ryan Suter and Mikko Koivu, only 1:30 later to level the score, which held into the second intermission.

    It may have taken over half an hour for Nashville to score their first goal, but it only took 12 seconds into the third period to score their second, notched by Third Star Roman Josi.  Minnesota leveled the score again 6:39 later when Matt Dumba fired a power play slapshot after being assisted by Jared Spurgeon and Jason Zucker.  The final goal of the evening was Cody Hodgson’s first of the season, scored at the 14:39 mark.

    Minnesota‘s Devan Dubnyk earned his third loss of the season (7-3-1 overall) after saving 21 of 24 (87.5%) while Nashville‘s Pekka Rinne saved 27 of 29 (93.1%) to improve his record to 7-1-2.

    The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 18-8-4, favoring the home squad by 14 points.  Minnesota‘s perfect record in the Game of the Day series falls to 3-1-0, while Nashville earned their first win in their first appearance.

    Today’s schedule features six matchups, so it’s a slight break before Saturday.  Detroit at Toronto (TVAS), Chicago at New Jersey and Dallas at Carolina all begin the festivities at 7 p.m. eastern.  Beginning at 9 p.m. eastern are two more games (the New York Rangers at Colorado and Pittsburgh at Edmonton [SN]), followed an hour later by tonight’s nightcap: Columbus at Anaheim.

    The Wings–Leafs game is the only divisional rivalry being played tonight, and there are no games between two teams currently qualifying for the playoffs.  Although this matchup has already been featured this season, we’ll watch Round Two of the Babcock Series.

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    An Original Six game is always fun, right?

    The 6-5-1 Detroit Red Wings currently sit in fifth place in the Atlantic Division and and ninth in the Eastern Conference, both due to losing a tiebreaker against the Boston Bruins.  They enter the game on a two-game winning streak, with their most recent victory coming against the Lightning, whom they beat 2-1 on Tuesday.

    The season has not started the way the Wings would have liked, to the point that many (including us at DtFR) are beginning to wonder if the incredible steak of 24 straight Stanley Cup playoff appearances may be in jeopardy.

    Beginning with the offense, we find a squad that has only put 306 shots on goal for 30 tallies (9.8%).  Since that shot percentage leads the league average by .7%, if might be argued that the Wings could find more offensive success if they found a better way to get pucks on goal (quite the Maddenism, I know), but I’m not convinced that would fix many problems in Motown.

    The power play is close to being on par with the rest of the league, as they have the average eight goals to their credit, but have earned two more opportunities than most teams, putting their 19.05% below the league average by .95%.

    If you had to pick an end of the ice the Wings have been better on, you’d have to lean towards the goaltending.  They’ve allowed only 31 goals so far this season on 386 shots (92.7% save rate).  Both Jimmy Howard and Petr Mrazek have three wins apiece, but they’ve had to work overtime as their leading shot blocker has been Luke Glendening (17), a CENTER.

    Continuing with the average theme, Detroit‘s penalty kill is in the same boat.  They’ve given up eight goals, just like the average team, but they’ve had to defend against four more opportunities.  Again, a .71% advantage over the league average is not enough for me to believe that this team has what it takes to be a real threat this season.

    Luckily for Detroit, average just might cut it tonight against the 2-8-2 Toronto Maple Leafs.  Neither the offense nor the defense has been turning many heads in Hogtown, as they sit in last place in both the Atlantic Division and the Eastern Conference.  They enter tonight’s game after losing to the Jets 4-2 on Wednesday.

    Beginning with the offense, we find a team that has notched only 26 tallies on 362 shots (7.2%).  Worse than that has been the power play, as they’ve only accounted for five goals with a man-advantage.  To their credit, they’ve only been on the power play 35 times, but a 14.29% success rate does not bode well, regardless of Toronto‘s opponent.

    On the other end of the ice, the Leafs have given up 40 goals so far this season, seven more than the league average.  One 363 shots faced, James Reimer and co.’s 90.4% save percentage trails the league average by one percent.  Luckily for the defense, Morgan Rielly (who deserves a raise based on this stat alone) leads the team with 20 blocks for his goaltenders, but it hasn’t been enough to keep pressure off the netminders.

    Even worse has been the penalty kill.  Ten goals have been given up by the Leafs‘ special teams for a kill rate of 76.19%, yet another stat that trails the league average.

    Babcock has been quoted as saying this was going to be a painful rebuild.  If I were Toronto, I’d be looking for some Advil, and if they’re nice, they should probably share some with any friends they have in Michigan, as neither team looks to have much optimism for this season at minimum.

    Toronto is expected to lose with a +111 line, which is further supported by statistics and the Wings beating the Leafs 4-0 when they met almost a month ago at the Joe (you can read a quick-and-dirty recap of it here).  Expect the Wings to get out of Toronto with a win.