Tag: Projected Stats

  • Numbers Game: Vegas at Halftime (Through 41 GP in 2017-18)

    The Western Conference leading Vegas Golden Knights entered their bye week at exactly 41 games played.

    Due to an unintentional– completely accidental– oversight on my behalf, I didn’t remember to look at their stats after 40 games played (like I normally would every 20 games throughout the season). But for the perfectionists in the world out there– it’s better to split things right down the middle.

    Vegas is back in action for the second half of their inaugural season on Saturday after going 29-10-2 (60 points) in their first 41 games in franchise history.

    Earlier in the week, I pointed out that the New Jersey Devils have been quite a pleasant surprise this season. Of course, I made sure to mention the Golden Knights as one of the other pleasant surprises.

    It’s not that nobody expected this team to fail as much as all the other expansion teams in the 100-year history of the league.

    Given the talent pool to choose from and the overall development of professional hockey players/the league itself since the 1990s (it’s a younger, faster, game where great players last well into their 30s and good players are buried in the AHL or playing overseas by the time they’re 30-35 years old), it really shouldn’t surprise anyone that the Golden Knights are at the very least, a competitive– young– team.

    Even still, it’s been quite the euphoric ride.

    A team that poached the Florida Panthers– and many others– at the 2017 Expansion Draft, laid the foundation in 50-plus point scorer, Jon Marchessault, let alone with three-time Stanley Cup champion goaltender, Marc-Andre Fleury. Surely they would have some highlights in their first season.

    Nobody could’ve imagined that same team would be seriously considering keeping Fleury or a guy like James Neal at the trade deadline in the midst of what could shape up to be a long playoff run in their first season, but alas, here we are.

    It’s more than just “Real Deal” James Neal in Sin City. The Golden Knights are the real deal.

    And their forecasted stats for the remaining half of the regular season show it. Though now is about the time where I make sure to mention one little standard disclaimer– my degree is in communication– not math– so any miscalculations or accolades that seem nearly impossible to ascertain are Microsoft Excel’s fault.

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    Vegas Golden Knights Projections Through 41 Games (41 Games Remaining)

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    Simply put, Erik Haula (26-24–50 expected totals), William Karlsson (32-23–55 expected totals) and Marchessault (30-38–68 expected totals) are blazing through the rest of the league and showing no signs of flaming out any time soon.

    It certainly helps that Neal and David Perron are both expected to reach the 60-point plateau, with Reilly Smith not so far behind amassing 19-38–57 expected totals.

    On defense, Deryk Engelland, Colin Miller, Nate Schmidt and Shea Theodore have been leading the charge from the blue line all season long. For Engelland, the adopted son of Las Vegas, a revitalized season defending the league’s newest team might just keep him playing in his backyard for longer than just this season.

    Miller and Schmidt were expected to take on more pronounced top-4 roles with the expectation that at least one of them would develop into a surefire top-2 shutdown defenseman. Miller should max out around 40 points, while Schmidt should put up a cool 30-point season in his first year outside of the United States capital.

    After being sent to the AHL early on in the season, Shea Theodore was only motivated to work harder.

    It wasn’t that he was not desired by an NHL team as clearly Vegas saw value in his game at the Expansion Draft, claiming Theodore from the Anaheim Ducks. Now that the Golden Knights front office and coaches have righted their wrong, Theodore could very well put up 24 points on the season in what is– by all means– a breakout season for the defenseman entering his prime.

    In the net, the Golden Knights have been spectacular. Not only has general manager, George McPhee, come away looking even more like the genius that he already is, but Vegas is stacked at depth in the crease.

    Malcolm Subban‘s playing like a backup that’s capable of taking on a starting role. That’ll be something to keep an eye on, given Fleury’s aging out of his prime– though he has yet to show it. It’s not often that a team has the right pieces to play two goalies almost equally in minutes and be successful.

    In 2011, the Boston Bruins rode the backs of Tim Thomas and Tuukka Rask to the Stanley Cup Final. Interestingly enough, the Vancouver Canucks did the same with Roberto Luongo and Cory Schneider.

    Thomas played his last game as a Bruin in 2012. Luongo was traded by the Canucks in 2014– a year after Vancouver dumped Schneider in New Jersey.

    Two tremendous goalies are better than one from a team record standpoint, but at some point general managers are either forced with a difficult decision due to the salary cap or fall into the fallacy that is the “there can only be one” mantra.

    And Gerard Gallant might end up with some tough decisions down the stretch regarding who to start each night, reminiscent of Mike Sullivan‘s Fleury-Matt Murray swapping during en route to Pittsburgh’s 2016 and 2017 Stanley Cup championships.

    Nonetheless, Oscar Dansk filled in flawlessly when Fleury and Subban were out of the lineup with injuries. Meanwhile, Maxime Lagace performed on another level shortly after Dansk’s introduction to the game when Dansk went down himself due to injury.

    With enough depth in goal to try to get something good in return, the ball is in Vegas’s court as the trade deadline approaches. Though the Golden Knights don’t have to rush things. A little competition for every goaltending job isn’t always a bad thing.

    Being in first place in the Western Conference isn’t good enough for the Golden Knights. They’ve got their sights set even higher, like on a 2018 Stanley Cup Final run, for instance.

    Sin City is looking to shine like gold. Vegas wants the Cup.

  • Numbers Game: Boston Through 40 (2017-18)

    As the calendar flips from 2017 to 2018 the NHL’s regular season keeps rolling along. Having played 40 games so far this season, the Boston Bruins are now in the midst of their bye week 2nd in the Atlantic Division (53 points)– ten points behind the Eastern Conference leading Tampa Bay Lightning.

    Plenty of teams have been pleasant surprises, namely, the Vegas Golden Knights and the New Jersey Devils through the first half of the season. To say the Golden Knights are merely on a hot start is a major understatement– there’s a legitimate chance Vegas will not only make the playoffs, but compete with the Lightning and Winnipeg Jets in what’s shaping up to be a competitive three-way battle for the 2017-18 President’s Trophy.

    Regardless, Boston has not been a pleasant surprise. No.

    If you’ve been tracking Don Sweeney‘s every move since becoming general manager in 2015, then you aren’t surprised at all to see that this year’s Bruins squad is playing on another level and turning heads around the hockey world.

    It’s a very methodic approach– one that takes its time while patience wears thin among fans that demand excellence every shift in the Hub– but the Boston Bruins are ready for a breakout performance in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs (barring a second half of the season collapse).

    While many are busy trying to come up with a nickname for Boston’s fourth line of Tim Schaller, Sean Kuraly and Noel Acciari— I recommend either “The 50s Line” (since Schaller, Kuraly and Acciari wear No.’s 59, 52 and 55 respectively) or “The B52 Line” (an ode to the music group, sure, but also a nod to Kuraly’s stellar anchor as the center)– it’s a shame no one’s come up with anything for the legend that is the Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak line.

    Usually it’s just “the Bergeron line”, but if you’ve seen the production from this line, you might just think back to the days of “The Uke Line”, “The Kraut Line” or “The Dynamite Line”– all of which were historic lines in Bruins franchise history.

    Anyway, on with the show…

    Through 40 games played this season, here’s a look at how every player on Boston’s roster should pan out for the remaining 42 games. Please remember my degree is in communication– not math– so any miscalculations are Microsoft Excel’s fault.

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    Boston Bruins Projections Through 40 Games (42 Games Remaining)

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    At this point in the season everything begins to look more realistic. Unless you’re still looking at Tommy Cross‘s projected stats. Again, that’s a product of forecasting a season for a player based on every career NHL game that player has played. Cross has yet to appear in an NHL game since the 2015-16 season; because of this, his numbers look more promising based on the formula alone than they actually probably would be, unless he knows something about his game we don’t.

    Until a player like Cross (or other players with few career NHL games played) suits up in the 2017-18 season, that players numbers are reflective of a more “idealistic” season. In other words, it’s a pipe dream (until it actually happens).


    The Bruins finally have a healthy lineup. Well, kind of.

    Defenseman, Adam McQuaid, is still out after missing time due to a fractured right fibula. Upon his imminent return, who exactly should Bruce Cassidy pull out of the lineup, if anyone?

    Matt Grzelcyk‘s emerged from the shadows of the last couple of seasons– in which he made his professional debut and NHL debut. He’s solidified himself as a top-6 defenseman, capable of earning his ice time and/or McQuaid’s job at less than half the price (at least until this offseason, when Grzelyck’s entry-level contract is set to expire).

    Grzelyck, 24, is seven-years younger than McQuaid and could provide the same amount of offensive production or more down the road. By default, Grzelcyk’s offensive game is better than McQuaid’s this season.

    Of course, there’s some things working in McQuaid’s favor in his ability to block shots, use his body and throw punches when “the code of hockey” needs to be enforced.

    Though, again, there is a younger blue liner– albeit by a year and at $250,000 less– that could carry the weight of the tough guy on Boston’s defense. That guy is Kevan Miller, 30, who’s having what’s poised to equal or surpass his career year of 2015-16 in points (18), while teaching Grzelyck the ways of a bottom-pair defenseman.

    Brandon Carlo has yet to score this season and is– by all considerations– in a sophomore slump. But he is only 21-years-old and destined to solidify as a top-4 defenseman in his career. He’s no Charlie McAvoy, but it wouldn’t make sense to punish a young player for showing his youth in his errors that he’s made at times through the year.

    Before you know it, McQuaid could be the next Paul Postma on the Bruins as another healthy scratch on a night-to-night basis– though providing much needed depth when one of the regular guys goes down with an injury.

    The Bruins have a plus-29 goal differential after 40 games this season, which is seven more than they had at the end of last season.

    It seems promising that Boston will continue to only get better offensively down the stretch with David Pastrnak seeking to best his career high in assists while amassing almost 70 points on the season. That’s just 1/3 of the Bergeron line.

    Brad Marchand should easily reach the 70-point plateau for not only the second time in his career– but the second year in a row– as Patrice Bergeron continues to swing the momentum around in his scoring projections (expected to surpass at least 60 points this season).

    Rookies Jake DeBrusk and Danton Heinen will each have respectable numbers that should flirt with the 50-point plateau. DeBrusk may only end up with 20-26-46 totals, but Heinen should continue to charge down the stretch reaching 22-43–65 totals in his own spectacular rookie season.

    It’s not Earth-shattering by any means, but it is highly underrated. Especially with a guy like David Backes on the same line.

    Backes, in his own right, is bringing some extra bang for his buck this season. Having missed almost half of the season with diverticulitis and recovering from the surgical removal of part of his colon, Backes is lighter and better than ever.

    And one more thing for the haters…

    Tuukka Rask is back. This could be a Vezina Trophy winning season, if not more, for the Finnish goaltender.

  • 2016-2017 Projections- ARI and BOS

    By: Nick Lanciani

    Below are my projections for both the Boston Bruins and Arizona Coyotes as they were before either team played a game (I know the season started already, but I didn’t have enough time in a day to compile all of these exactly as I wanted to because I’m a perfectionist). So without further ado, here are some projected stats.

    Keep in mind, every stat is based off of a player’s entire career and may not reflect well with the other stats projected for this current season (a.k.a. goals + assists might not equal the number of points shown in the points category), because again, each stat is forecasted individually.

    Italics indicates a player currently with their respective AHL affiliate. Underlined player stats indicate a player on the IR (which, admittedly, I’ll do my best to keep up with, but might not have perfect every time, so forgive me if I mistakenly label an injury or fail to label one entirely).

    Also, I don’t mess with predicting anything for rookies until they’ve played a few NHL games, so if you’re looking for how well one of them will do for your team here, sorry. Unlike last season, I won’t be able to update everything after every 10 games, but I’ll try my best to keep things updated after every 20 games (or so). At the very least, I’ll be sure to update things halfway through the season (41 games) on this page and whenever I get around to it for individual player’s based on their performance on Twitter (as exhibited by my Brad Marchand and David Backes related tweets below from Thursday night).

    Likewise, I might add more Corsi projections than just Corsi for%.

    Arizona Coyotes Projections- Game 0 of 82

    Coyotes forwards

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    Coyotes goalies

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    Corsi for% projections for Arizona roster skaters

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    *indicates that the current projection is regarded as unreliable based on previous career performance (in other words, it’s an outlier)

    Boston Bruins Projections- Game 0 of 82

    Bruins forwards

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    Bruins goalies

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    Corsi for% projections for Boston roster skaters

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  • Forever Archived 2015-2016 Stats

    By: Nick Lanciani

    So I’m in the process of changing up how I’ll present some projected stats this season and moving forward (for now, at least). Having said that, there’ll be a few changes to the way this page works. For starters, it’s no longer a page, technically speaking, but I’m sure you don’t want to be bored with website construction stuff. This season I will be tracking two teams, the Boston Bruins (predictably) and the Arizona Coyotes (because they follow us on Twitter, so it’s like we’re best friends and I’m doing them a favor). Also, if John Chayka sees this, then maybe he should hire me. Please. Someone. Hello?

    With the increasingly large swath of data that I have to trudge through and the many things I have going on in life currently (like looking at Corsi Twitter data for a content analysis using grounded theory— you bet it’s a lot of fun), it’s looking like I will only be able to update the projections after every 20 games or so, instead of after every 10 games. I’d love to project stats for every player in the NHL someday, but alas…

    I’ve already completed projections for one of the two teams mentioned above and will be finishing the other team up by the weekend, so I’ll retroactively post how both teams are supposed to perform this season after the first couple of games have been played.

    For now, I’ll leave you all with a memory of the golden days of how I did things just last season.

    How I used to run my projected stats…

    Using Microsoft Excel I display just how much I don’t have a life on this page. After every ten games or so, I update my projections for every player currently on the Boston Bruins, compile the results on one document, and then display my findings here for you to determine if someone’s doing well or not. As an armchair GM you can always wish that someone would get traded, but maybe now you’ll have something to back those demands up.

    I would have tried to compile projections for every team in the NHL this season, however, I simply do not have enough of time currently to commit to that. Hopefully sometime this summer I’ll have a few more teams up here.

    I will update the Bruins projections after every ten games and leave all of my findings for your viewing pleasure and so you can make your own analysis as the season progresses.

    (Just click on the chart for slightly improved quality).

    2015-2016 Season Projections

    Boston Bruins Projections After 80 of 82 Games Played

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    Boston Bruins Projections After 70 of 82 Games Played

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    Boston Bruins Projections After 60 of 82 Games Played

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    Boston Bruins Projections After 50 of 82 Games Played

    (my data after 50 games played deleted itself :,( sorry for the inconvenience)

    Boston Bruins Projections After 40 of 82 Games Played

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    Boston Bruins Projections After 30 of 82 Games Played

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    Boston Bruins Projections After 20 of 82 Games Played

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    Boston Bruins Projections After 10 of 82 Games Played

    Boston Bruins Projections Before the Start of the 2015-2016 Season

    All career numbers are taken into account in the determination of the projected outcome. In determining projected Corsi for% I average the player’s current Corsi for% with their remaining projected Corsi for%. For S%, I average a player’s current shooting percentage with their remaining S% projection, therefore, the S% typically will not reflect what one would get from dividing the projected goal total from the projected shot total for each player.

    Players listed in italics are currently in the AHL with the Providence Bruins. A player that is currently on the injured reserve is reflected by an underline and an “IR” notation in the Games Played column. For players that have yet to play an NHL game with the Bruins this season, I made my best projections based on their career statistics and if they happened to miraculously play in all of the remaining games this season for Boston.

    Also, please note that for goaltenders in this chart, I have not determined how to reflect projections accurately- other than basing all numbers on if the goalie played in every game remaining in the season. For a more accurate representation, I anticipate to use similar playing time from the 2014-2015 season to project the 2015-2016 season sometime, however I am in the process of transitioning all goalie stats to another page on this site.

    And finally, the numbers for goalies probably won’t always add up right (if you’re analyzing the numbers that much), because again, I haven’t learned how to predict the unpredictable- goalies are weird anyways. Until I figure out how to deal with goaltenders in their own special way, I have a rather generic preview of how they might do.

    As I mentioned above, I’m in the process of transitioning Nick’s Net into a page dedicated to goalie stats and projections for every goalie in the NHL, so I might just pull all goalie notes from this page in the near future.

    – Nick Lanciani

    P.S. For a look at the process, here’s a glimpse of the Excel spreadsheet I work with.

    *Corsi% denotes Corsi for%