Down the Frozen River

Tag: Pavelski

February 22 – Day 130 – Theme from Jaws

Yesterday’s Game of the Day between the Detroit Red Wings and the New York Rangers was a showing of excellent goaltending, as the only goal of the game was scored after 61:59 of play by the Blueshirts.

It came courtesy of Kevin Klein on a wrister assisted by Kevin Hayes (his 18th helper of the season) and Chris Kreider.

Henrik Lundqvist earns the win after saving all 22 shots he faced, and Jimmy Howard takes the overtime loss after saving all but one of his 30 shots faced (96.7%).

The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 58-30-12, favoring the home squads by 33 points over the roadies.

Only four games are being played this Monday, and half of them drop the puck at 7 p.m. eastern (Columbus at Boston and Arizona at Washington), followed half an hour later by Nashville at Montréal. This evening’s night cap drops the puck at 8 p.m. eastern when San Jose visits St. Louis (NBCSN).

None of tonight’s games are divisional rivalries, and San Jose–St. Louis is the only contest between teams currently qualifying for the playoffs. Because of that, we head to the Scottrade Center!

If these logos were emojis, this song is what they would be trying to communicate.

Tonight’s game is San Jose‘s sixth in the Game of the Day series, where they own a 3-2-0 record, and their first since beating the Stars 4-3 in overtime in the Tank on January 16. St. Louis has been featured a dozen times before this evening’s game, and own a 7-4-1 record in the series, with their most recent being a 2-1 overtime winner against the Stars on Tuesday.

The 31-21-5 San Jose Sharks currently sit in third place in the Pacific Division and sixth in the Western Conference. To get to that position, they’ve played a top-10 offense paired with the 13th-best defense.

Led by Brent Burns’ 249 shots, the Sharks have fired the puck an incredible 1714 times, with 9.6% finding the back of the net for 168 goals (led by Joe Pavelski’s 26 tallies), seventh-most in the NHL. Much of that success can be attributed to San Jose‘s power play, which capitalizes on 22.16% of opposing penalties for 43 extra-man goals (led by Pavelski’s eight).

The defense has been no slouch themselves, as the Sharks have allowed only 1574 shots (led by Burns’ 114 blocks) to reach 28-16-3 Martin Jones and co., of which they’ve saved 91% for 154 goals against, 13th-fewest in the league. Probably the biggest holes in San Jose‘s game has been their penalty kill, which neutralizes a 15th-worst 80.47% of penalties for 33 power play goals against.

The Sharks‘ last result was a 5-2 loss in Carolina on Friday that ended their three-game win streak. Should San Jose earn the win this evening, they will close the gap between them and second place Anaheim to one point.

The 35-17-9 St. Louis Blues currently occupy third place in the Central Division and the Western Conference. They play the seventh-best defense in the league, but it is paired with an offense that has scored 14th-fewest goals. A more in-depth analysis of St. Louis‘ game can be found within last Tuesday’s post.

St. Louis is currently riding a best in the league five-game win streak, with their most recent being a 6-4 victory in Arizona on Saturday. Should the Blues earn the win this evening, they will jump the Stars for second place in both the Central and Western Conference by a point, although Dallas will have two fewer games played, by virtue of losing a regulation+overtime wins tiebreaker with the Blackhawks.

These squads have only met up once this season, with San Jose winning 3-1 in St. Louis on February 4.

Some players to keep an eye on in tonight’s game include San Jose‘s Jones (five shutouts [tied for second-most in the league] and 28 wins [tied for fourth-most in the league]), Pavelski (26 goals [seventh-most in the league] and 54 points [tied for ninth-most in the league]) and Joe Thornton (39 assists [tied for fifth-most in the league]) & St. Louis‘ Jake Allen (five shutouts [tied for second-most in the league], 2.17 GAA [tied for sixth-best in the league] and .924 save percentage [tied for eighth-best in the league]) or Brian Elliott (.931 save percentage [leads the league] and 2.06 GAA [tied for best in the league]), Colton Parayko (+22 [tied for fourth-best in the league]) and Vladimir Tarasenko (28 goals [sixth-most in the league]).

Ah, the point of the post has come where I have to make a prediction. It is well documented across this site my allegiance to the Notes, which is what makes this prediction even more difficult. Frankly, I think San Jose is fully capable of beating St. Louis regardless of location, made evident on February 4, but the Blues are one of, if not the hottest team in the NHL right now. Based solely on stats, I am leaning towards the Sharks taking their second win in the season series.

February 22, 2016
January 16 – Day 98 – It’s another homecoming for an ex-Shark

Second Star of the Game Bo Horvat loves to play the Carolina Hurricanes. When they played in Vancouver last week, he had two goals, including the game-winner.

Guess what he did tonight?

Just notch two goals, including the overtime game-winner to secure the Canucks‘ 3-2 victory.

The story was more than Horvat though. Linden Vey scored his first goal of the season after 13:14 of play to give Vancouver the lead, but Third Star Kris Versteeg was able to level the score with 1:33 remaining before intermission with a power play goal, assisted by Jaccob Slavin and Jordan Staal (his 12th assist of the season). The one-all tie held into the second period.

Horvat scored his first goal of the night 9:32 after resuming play, assisted by Taylor Fedun and Matt Bartkowski (his ninth helper of the season) to give the Canucks a 2-1 lead that would hold into the second intermission.

Vancouver was beginning to feel certain about their victory, but John-Michael Liles had other ideas. After assists from Andrej Nestrasil and Victor Rask (his 17th helper of the season), he leveled the score at two-all, which held to the end of regulation, forcing the three-on-three overtime period.

Horvat waited 3:25 before scoring his winner, assisted by Radim Vrbata (his 10th assist of the season) and Christopher Tanev.

First Star of the Game Jacob Markstrom improves his record to 7-5-4 after saving 38 of 40 (95%), while Cam Ward’s record falls to 14-11-5 after saving 19 of 22 (86.4%).

The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 40-19-9, favoring the home squads by 28 points over the road teams.

For a Friday night, the schedule was relatively light with only six games. Don’t worry though, the NHL has our back, as there’s a solid 10 on deck today. The action gets started at 1 p.m. eastern when the New York Rangers visit Philadelphia (SN), followed an hour later by New Jersey at Arizona. The final matinee begins at 4 p.m. eastern when Ottawa visits Los Angeles. Four games drop the puck at the normal starting time of 7 p.m. eastern (Toronto at Boston [CBC], Washington at Buffalo [BELL TV], Colorado at Columbus and Montréal at St. Louis [NHLN/TVAS/SN]), followed an hour later by Minnesota at Nashville. 10 p.m. eastern brings with it the beginning of Calgary at Edmonton (CBC/SN), followed half an hour later by Dallas at San Jose, this evening’s nightcap.

Four of tonight’s games are divisional rivalries (New York at Philadelphia, Toronto at Boston, Minnesota at Nashville and Calgary at Edmonton), while two other matchups represent meetings of teams currently qualifying for the playoffs (Montréal at St. Louis and Dallas at San Jose).

The game that strikes me most is the Dallas–San Jose matchup, and it’s not just because of how both teams are doing this season. The Sharks have already welcomed Todd McLellan back to The Tank this week, so what hurts seeing another old friend? How about the goaltender for most of McLellan’s tenure, Antti Niemi?

Tonight’s game will be Dallas‘ sixth appearance in the Game of the Day series, where they own a 4-0-1 record. Their most recent showing in the series was the day after Christmas, a 3-2 shootout loss in St. Louis. San Jose has been featured much more recently, as they beat the Oilers 2-1 in a shootout on Thursday to improve their series record to 2-2-0.

Niemi spent a total of five seasons in San Jose before having his signing rights traded to Dallas this offseason. With the exception of the lockout-shortened 2012-’13 season, he was always good for 60+ games and 31+ wins per season, with his best being his 39-17-7 2013-’14 campaign, when he 91.3% for 149 goals against.

Excluding last season, Niemi’s Sharks always qualified for the playoffs, with his best performance certainly being the 2012-’13 where he saved 93% of the shots that came his way.

So far this season, Niemi has helped to lead his 29-11-4 Dallas Stars to second place in both the Central Division and the Western Conference.

Measured by goals scored, Dallas is the best offense in the NHL this season. Led by Tyler Seguin’s 166 shots, the Stars have fired the puck 1419 times this season, of which 10.4% have found the back of the net for 147 tallies, led by Jamie Benn’s 25 tallies. Special teams have certainly contributed to that success, as Dallas scores on 22.46% for 31 power play goals (led by Benn’s 11). The biggest problem for the power play has actually been the defense, which has given up five short-handed goals so far this season.

Niemi was an excellent add for this team, as the Stars‘ defense is not exactly anything spectacular. Even with Johnny Oduya’s team-leading 93 blocks, Dallas has allowed 1279 shots to reach 16-8-4 Niemi and co., of which they’ve collectively saved 91.2% for 114 goals against, 13th-most in the league. The defense does clamp down when facing the power play, as they’ve killed 81.25% for only 24 power play goals against. What improves this special teams unit is their six shorties this season.

Dallas is currently riding a two-game losing skid, with their most recent being a 4-2 loss in Anaheim last night. A Stars win tonight puts them back the division and conference lead, as they win the games played-tiebreaker over Chicago.

The 22-18-2 San Jose Sharks are currently in third place in the Pacific Division and eighth in the Western Conference. Similar to Dallas, the Sharks play a more offensive game, but they are backed by a stronger defense than tonight’s opposition. You can read more about the Sharks‘ play here.

San Jose is currently riding a four-game win streak, with their most recent being the 2-1 shootout victory over the Oilers on Thursday. A Sharks victory this evening increases their lead over Vancouver for the third division spot to two points, while a loss loses one of San Jose‘s three games in hand over rival Canucks.

Some players to watch in tonight’s game include Dallas‘ Benn (53 points [second-most in the league], 25 goals [third-most in the league], 28 assists [tied for fifth-most in the league] and +17 [tied for sixth-best in the league]), John Klingberg (32 assists [third-most in the league]), Niemi (three shutouts [tied for seventh-best in the league]) and Seguin (51 points [third-most in the league], 24 goals [tied for fourth-most in the league] and 27 assists [ninth-most in the league]) & San Jose‘s Martin Jones (four shutouts [tied for third-most in the league] and 19 wins [tied for fourth-most in the league]) and Joe Pavelski (22 goals [tied for sixth-most in the league] and 43 points [tied for seventh-best in the league]).

Although I’m picking the Sharks to win this game tonight due to their current steak and playing on home ice, you can never count out a team like the Dallas Stars, who have aspirations of a Stanley Cup on their mind.

January 16, 2016
January 14 – Day 96 – The Oil bring with them an old friend

The Anaheim Ducks scored three goals in 3:29 to beat the Ottawa Senators 4-1 in last night’s Game of the Day.

The first goal of the night did not occur until 27:06 had ticked off the clock. It belonged to Andrew Cogliana, a wrister after the assist from Kevin Bieksa (his sixth helper of the season). Ottawa leveled the score with only 3:48 remaining in the second period, as Curtis Lazar snapped a shot past Third Star of the Game Frederik Andersen. The 1-1 tie held into the second intermission.

The game remained knotted until only 4:55 remained in regulation when First Star Shea Theodore scored the game-winner, a power play goal (his first career point), after assists from Ryan Getzlaf (his 23rd helper of the season) and Sami Vatanen. 2:23 later, it was Carl Hagelin with the first insurance goal, assisted by Ryan Kesler (his ninth assist of the season) and Jakob Silfverberg. Silfverberg’s night was not done, as he scored with only 1:26 remaining in the game after assists from Second Star Hampus Lindholm (his eighth helper of the season) and Hagelin, giving the Ducks the 4-1 victory.

Andersen’s record improves to 6-8-5 after saving 24 of 25 (96%), while Craig Anderson’s falls to 17-13-4 after saving 34 of 38 (89.5%).

The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 39-19-8, favoring the home squads by 28 points over the roadies.

It was a light schedule yesterday, which usually means a full set of games tonight. This Thursday follows the trend, as a total of 16 points are on the table this evening. The action gets started at the usual time of 7 p.m. eastern with two games dropping the opening pucks (the New York Rangers at the New York Islanders [TVAS] and Vancouver at Washington), followed half an hour later by Chicago at Montréal (NBCSN/RDS). 8 p.m. eastern brings with it the beginning of two games (Carolina at St. Louis and Nashville at Winnipeg), with another pair dropping the puck an hour later (New Jersey at Colorado and Detroit at Arizona). Finally, at 10:30 p.m. eastern, we have our nightcap between Edmonton and San Jose.

Three of tonight’s games are between divisional rivals (Rangers at Islanders, Nashville at Winnipeg and Edmonton at San Jose), while another set of three represents matchups between teams currently qualifying for the playoffs (Rangers at Islanders, Chicago at Montréal and Detroit at Arizona).

While this information is usually important in choosing a Game of the Day, there is a special reason I’ve chosen Edmonton at San Jose as the point of our focus – the return of Todd McLellan to the Tank.

This is the second time Edmonton has been featured in the Game of the Day series. They lost their only other appearance 4-2 on December 15 in Madison Square Garden. The Sharks have been featured three times before tonight, and own a 1-2-0 record in such games. Their most recent showing in the series was also a 4-2 loss on December 18 in Ottawa.

The whole focus of tonight’s game will be McLellan, who is making his first appearance in San Jose since “mutually parting ways” with the squad following the 2014-’15 season.

McLellan never had a losing season in The Tank, including the team’s lone Presidents’ Trophy in 2008-’09, and missed the playoffs only once in his seven-season tenure. But, for all the success he found in the regular season, the Sharks advanced to the Western Conference Finals only twice (2009-’10 and 2010-’11), and never to the Stanley Cup Finals.

He now leads his new squad, the Edmonton Oilers, in their attempts to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since losing in the Stanley Cup Finals to Carolina in 2005-’06. He will probably not keep his winning-season streak alive, but he certainly has his team heading in the right direction.

McLellan’s 17-23-4 Edmonton Oilers currently sit in last place in the Pacific Division and the Western Conference, and lose the games played tiebreaker with Buffalo, putting them in second to last in the league. Although Edmonton does not play a strong game on either end of the ice, they have to be considered more of an offensive team than a team of strong defense and goaltending.

The Oil has fired 1279 shots so far this season (led by Taylor Hall’s 175), of which 8.2% have found the back of the net for 105 tallies (led by Hall’s 16), 21st most in the league. While the shots and shot percentage are on par with the rest of the league, the Oilers‘ power play has been a major shortcoming. Edmonton has scored on only 17.42% of their attempts for 23 goals.

Of course, the forwards can’t take all the blame for the Oilers‘ position, as the defense has been anything but exemplary this season. Even with Andrej Sekera’s team-leading 88 blocks, 1356 shots have still made their way to 10-10-2 Anders Nilsson and co., who’ve collectively saved 90.7% for 131 goals against, third-most in the league. The special teams issues continue to the power play, where the Oil have killed only 78.74% of attempts for 27 goals against.

Edmonton is currently riding a three-game losing skid, with their most recent showing being a 4-3 overtime loss in Arizona on Tuesday.

The 21-18-2 San Jose Sharks currently sit in third place in the Pacific Division and 10th in the Western Conference, and have utilized a decent offense to fight for position in the competitive race for the Pacific’s third division qualifier.

So far this season, the Sharks have fired 1227 shots (led by Brent Burns’ 177 attempts), of which a whopping 9.5% have found the back of the net for 117 goals (led by Joe Pavelski’s 22 tallies), 11th most in the league. The success has continued to the power play, where San Jose has scored on 21.01% of attempts for 29 goals (led by Pavelski’s seven PP tallies).

Although below the league average, the Sharks‘ defense has not been atrocious. Burns leads the charge, with 84 blocks to his credit, to allow only 1146 shots to make their way to Martin Jones and co., of which they’ve collectively saved 90.9% for 113 goals against, 11th-fewest in the league. The real deficiencies show up on the penalty kill, where the Sharks have only killed 79.69% of opposing power plays for 26 goals against.

San Jose is currently riding a three-game win streak, with their most recent being a 4-1 win in Winnipeg on Tuesday.

Some players to watch in tonight’s game include Edmonton‘s Hall (41 points [tied for eighth-most in the league]) & San Jose‘s Jones (four shutouts (tied for third-most in the league] and 18 wins [tied for sixth-most in the league]) and Pavelski (43 points [sixth-most in the league] and 22 goals [sixth-most in the league]).

Although it seems like McLellan has the Oil headed in the right direction, they are still nowhere near the team Edmonton fans would like to see, due in part to Connor McDavid’s injury. Expect the Sharks to beat their old coach.

January 14, 2016
December 18 – Day 72 – First trip to Canada since my return from hiatus!

It took two goals in the third period, but the Blues were able to hold home ice to beat the Predators and spoil Third Star of the Game Barret Jackman’s homecoming in last night’s Game of the Day.

Nashville struck first with a power play goal at the 7:14 mark of the first period. Filip Forsberg and Shea Weber assisted Roman Josi to the Predators‘ lone goal of the night to set the score at 1-0, which held into the first and second intermissions.

Only 2:38 into the third period, St. Louis leveled the score thanks to Second Star David Backes’ 10th goal of the season, assisted by Alex Pietrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk. The draw held until the 14:40 mark, when Alexander Steen and Paul Stastny assisted First Star Vladimir Tarasenko to his 20th tally of the season, setting the score at its 2-1 final.

15-7-2 Jake Allen earned the win after saving 27 of 28 (96.4%), while Pekka Rinne’s record falls to 12-9-6 after saving 31 of 33 (93.9%).

The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 26-10-6, still favoring the home squad by 24 points. Before anyone points it out, yes, I’m aware that this does not line up with yesterday’s record – This should be the correct record.

Today’s schedule includes six games, with the first three starting at 7 p.m. eastern (Boston at Pittsburgh [TVAS], Tampa Bay at Washington and Florida at Carolina), with two more following half an hour later (San Jose at Ottawa [RDS] and Vancouver at Detroit [SN]). Finally, the nightcap gets its start at 8 p.m. eastern when the New York Rangers visit Winnipeg.

None of tonight’s matchups involve divisional rivalries, and San Jose at Ottawa represents the only game between two playoff qualifiers. Sounds like reason enough to me to head up to the Canadian Tire Centre!

The 16-14-1 San Jose Sharks currently sit in second place in the Pacific Division, but seventh in the Western Conference, utilizing a defensive-first game plan. They played last night in Toronto, where they won 5-4.

So far this season, 13-10-1 Martin Jones and the Sharks have given up only 832 shots against (due in part to Brent Burns’ team-leading 64 blocks), a total well below the league average, and those efforts are reflected in their 79 goals against. Even on the penalty kill, the Sharks have been tough to score on. They’ve given up only 17 goals on 94 opportunities for a 81.91% kill-rate that slightly exceeds the league average.

It has been the offense that has been letting the Sharks down this season made evident by only 880 shots on goal so far this year (led by Burns’ 132). As can be expected from that total, San Jose has only managed 77 goals this season, led by Joe Pavelski’s 14.

A portion of their offense that especially needs work is the power play. On 96 opportunities, San Jose has only scored 17 times, for a 17.71% success rate that slightly trails the league average. If the Sharks want to keep up with the Kings in their division, they need to improve their offensive proficiency.

The 16-11-5 Ottawa Senators were most recently featured in the Game of the Day series on Wednesday. You can read a quick summary of their squad here. Their last game played was that Wednesday game in Washington, where they fell 2-1.

Some players to watch in today’s game include Ottawa‘s Craig Anderson (14 wins [tied for sixth in the league] and two shutouts [tied for seventh in the league]), Mike Hoffman (17 goals [tied for fourth in the league]), Erik Karlsson (28 assists [tied for league lead] and 35 points [tied for fourth in the league]) and Mark Stone (21 assists [tied for sixth in the league]) & San Jose‘s Jones (three shutouts [tied for fifth in the league] and 14 wins [tied for sixth in the league]) and Pavelski (15 goals [tied for seventh in the league] and 31 points [tied for ninth in the league]).

Especially since they are playing at home, I expect the Sens to be able to win tonight’s matchup.

December 18, 2015