Nick and Connor ponder whether or not Taylor Hall is a legitimate Hart Trophy candidate, which Western Conference team (NSH, WPG or VGK) will make the Stanley Cup Final and dive into the odds of the Florida Panthers making the playoffs and/or fielding a competitive team. Also, thoughts on the Detroit Red Wings and goaltender interference.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.
Nick and Connor recap the 2018 trade deadline, 2018 Winter Games and 2018 overall even though it’s only March. Marco Sturm is worthy of an NHL coaching job, but will anyone take the risk? Hint: They should. Also, more thoughts on the Erik Karlsson saga.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.
First of all, it’s March, which means it’s officially the best month of the year, but not for any of the reasons you’re thinking. College basketball can stay on the back burner– especially when there’s playoff hockey to look forward to next month when, oh yeah, that NCAA championship game actually occurs.
Save your “March is the worst month of the year” takes for the next person in line, thanks.
Anyway, at this point in the season it’s worth noting that the trade deadline has come and passed. While acquisitions like Rick Nash for the Boston Bruins, Derick Brassard for the Pittsburgh Penguins, Tomas Tatar for the Vegas Golden Knights and Paul Stastny for the Winnipeg Jets will certainly impact their teams, the following projected standings are merely an educated guess at how things should pan out.
There are simply too many variables that Microsoft Excel cannot account for, namely injuries, roster changes and well, whether or not a player woke up on the right side of the bed that day.
To that end, some projected points totals had a little Gut Feeling 2.0 added to them. In other words, the Toronto Maple Leafs are not going to end up with 130 or 131 points like a couple of models showed– there’s simply not enough games remaining for them to almost match an NHL record.
Therefore, more realistic measures have been added for some teams to account for “reality”.
Some teams like the Chicago Blackhawks, for instance, had a little win-percentage on the season taken into account for their 19 remaining games on the season– and then reflected in the total number of points they should earn.
As with all stats and analytics, try not to get too bogged down on one or another. A holistic viewpoint goes much further than trying to survive on heart and grit alone.
Especially in today’s NHL, where speed and skill are more present than ever before.
With that, here’s a glance at how the standings should shake out for all 31 NHL clubs based on their performances through February 28, 2018.
As always, my degree is in communication, not math. In other words, throw everything mentioned above out the window, strap yourself in and good luck surviving the adrenaline rush that is the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Oh, your team’s not going to make it, you say?
My condolences, Ottawa Senators, Buffalo Sabres, New York Rangers, Carolina Hurricanes, Blackhawks and Arizona Coyotes fans. Next year is totally your year.
Maybe.
The Atlantic Division was already determined in December. Nothing should surprise anyone, except for how close it should be coming down the wire for first place in the division.
It might seem crazy considering the Tampa Bay Lightning really bolstered their defense with Ryan McDonagh at the trade deadline, but Boston and Toronto have as much speed and offense to remain in the hunt for that little “Y” next to their names down the stretch. Plus it helps that the Lightning, Bruins and Maple Leafs aren’t playing each other every night, so that has to factor in their somehow.
Between 4th and 6th in the division it’s anyone’s game. The Montreal Canadiens, Detroit Red Wings and Florida Panthers are all teetering on the edge of either a rebuild or just a few steps away from a re-tool-on-the-fly.
Neither of them are inherently “ideal”, but they can’t do anything else to compete with Tampa, Boston and Toronto.
It’s worth noting that the Buffalo Sabres will barely climb out of the basement of the division this year. And that’s without Jack Eichel (fractured ankle).
Simply put, the Ottawa Senators are beyond bad.
After much turbulence leading up to this month in the Metropolitan Division, it seems by the end of the month, we’ll have a clear picture of who’s really a contender, who’s making a Second Round exit and who’s just pretending to be on the ice when they’re actually sending out some pretty high-tech holograms on the ice.
In other words, the Pittsburgh Penguins are suited for a three-peat as long as Matt Murray can stay healthy. Even still, they’re beginning to peak at the right time as they have done every year with Mike Sullivan behind the bench.
But who’s that neighbor of theirs in Pennsylvania? They might have to re-grease some poles in Philadelphia, because the Flyers are surging right now and it should carry them into decent playoff position.
The New Jersey Devils, Columbus Blue Jackets and Washington Capitals all remain competitive, but sadly fall victim to First or Second Round exits simply because have you seen the rest of the Eastern Conference? Yeah, I thought so too.
One of these years if the Carolina Hurricanes look to actually spend a little more money they’ll be able to take their money-puck approach back to the postseason for the first time since 2009, but this year is not that year. They didn’t do anything at the deadline and it shows.
Your President’s Trophy winners, ladies and gentlemen, entering March 2018 should be the Winnipeg Jets.
That’s right, the team in Winnipeg, Manitoba with a seating capacity of a little more than 15,000 fans at Bell MTS Place. That one. Winnipeg. The Western Conference’s Carolina Hurricanes. They aren’t big spenders, yet they bought exactly what they needed at the trade deadline in Paul Stastny.
Meanwhile, apparently Eric Staal‘s first hat trick in a little over five years is enough to catapult the Minnesota Wild on a surprising run down the stretch. Though they are currently 3rd in the Central Division, Minnesota is coming alive.
It’s hard to knock the Nashville Predators off of their game– especially while they’re in command of the division– but something just doesn’t go exactly as planned this month for the Preds.
They’ll still beat Minnesota in the First Round and set themselves up for quite a matchup with Winnipeg in the Second Round though. Obviously the winner of that is going to battle the Vegas Golden Knights for the Clarence S. Campbell Bowl.
A warning to the St. Louis Blues– keep up this downward trend and the Dallas Stars will replace you in the wild card.
Whatever upper body injury is plaguing Corey Crawford is only making things worse for the Chicago Blackhawks.
In some models, they should be a lot better than they are right now, but that’s due to their impressive streak of success from 2010-17. Now, in 2018, the wheels fell off and the floor fell out from under them– on top of the Crawford injury.
The Vegas Golden Knights, in their inaugural season, come up three points shy of winning the 2017-18 President’s Trophy as the team with the best regular season record. The Vegas Golden Knights.
Despite the push from all of the California clubs, this is Vegas’s division title to lose. Not just in the regular season, but in the playoffs too.
No amount of onslaught from the Los Angeles Kings or Anaheim Ducks should be able to stand a seven-game series with Ryan Reaves and the rest of the Golden Knights. Having said that though, it’s a shame the San Jose Sharks will likely pair-up with the Jets, because we’ll never get to know if Vegas could single handedly defeat all three California teams en route to the 2018 Stanley Cup Final.
That’s assuming a lot, but let’s roll with it.
All season long the Calgary Flames have been a lovable underdog. Unfortunately, their time is cut short. All good things must come to an end and again, if you’re going to do nothing at the deadline as a fringe competitor, you can’t expect to improve.
At least you shouldn’t, otherwise well, you know the definition of insanity (doing the same thing and expecting a different result).
Better luck next year, Edmonton Oilers, Vancouver Canucks and Arizona Coyotes.
Skater of the Week: Evgeni Malkin
Two games. Two games is all Geno played this entire week, and he still scored six points.
Currently riding a six-game point streak with 13 total points in that time, Malkin is just torching everything in his path. In his two contests this past week he tallied a goal and two assists in Carolina before reversing the numbers in Florida. Perhaps even more impressive is the fact that only one of those six points was on the power play. In fact, just two of the 13 points he’s scored in this streak were away from even strength.
The Penguins were already stacked and red-hot before adding Derick Brassard, so as of this writing, there’s no solid reason not to bet on the three-peat.
Tendy of the Week: Frederik Andersen
Possibly the quietest Vezina candidate of all time, Freddie has been stellar for basically the entire season, and is a huge reason the Leafs are where they’re at in the standings. But playing behind that offense doesn’t leave a lot of spotlight left for the Danish netminder. Not that he seems to mind.
Downing the Panthers, Islanders, and closest rival Boston during the week, Andersen posted a .939 save percentage and 1.96 GAA on the week, stopping 92 of 98 shots faced. If not for an .870 result against Boston (a game that was still a regulation win for his Leafs, mind you) where he allowed three goals on only 23 shots, Andersen’s numbers could have been even more spectacular. Still, that 3-0-0 record is probably the most important thing to him and his team.
Currently carrying a .922 save percentage and 2.67 GAA on the season to accompany a 32-16-4 record, Freddie has firmly placed his name in the category of ‘Legit #1 goaltender’, and his Toronto squad looks poised to potentially do some postseason damage.
Game of the Week: Germany 3, Artists Formerly Known as Russia 4 (OT)
International officiating is somehow actually worse than NHL officiating, believe it or not.
News, Notes, & Nonsense:
*Disclaimer: Nick and Connor have been doing a great job of recapping all the trade deadline madness, so rather than repeat all the trades that they’ve already written about, I’ll simply direct you to their articles*
Mike Fisher is now o-fish-ully back with the Predators, having signed a $1 million contract for the remainder of the 2017-’18 season. The Preds definitely seem to be all-in for a Cup run this year, convincing former captain Fisher to unretire, and acquiring wrecking ball winger Ryan Hartman from division rival Chicago at the deadline.
Erik Karlsson is still an Ottawa Senator, which I suppose is great news to anyone not named Erik Karlsson.
Jack Johnson is still a Blue Jacket, and I can only assume our good friend Cap’n Cornelius can actually feel me typing those words as they dig into his soul. Oh well, at least we got to see Aaron Portzline be wrong about something again.
Andrei Vasilevskiy made another save by reaching his glove behind his back, confirming that the original was not a fluke and that he is not actually a human but rather some sort of crazy Russian android, and I feel like we’re not as concerned about that as we should be.
Brian Gionta and Cody Goloubef managed to earn the attention of NHL teams during their respective Olympic tournaments, with Goloubef getting a contract from the Flames, and Gionta (admittedly surprisingly) signing with the Bruins.
Johnny Oduya was waived by Ottawa and claimed by Philadelphia, and I can only assume he did not need transportation to make the trip from Ontario to Pennsylvania.
Boston Bruins general manager, Don Sweeney, apparently wasn’t done after acquiring Nick Holden earlier in February and Rick Nash on Sunday. The Bruins GM was on the hunt for even more depth and that’s just what he got.
The Chicago Blackhawks traded F Tommy Wingels to the Boston Bruins in exchange for a conditional 5th round pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. The draft pick involved becomes a 4th round selection if Boston advances past the First Round of the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs or if the Bruins re-sign Wingels.
Wingels, 29, has seven goals and five assists in 57 games this season for Chicago.
The 6-foot, 200-pound, Evanston, Illinois native was signed by the Blackhawks as a free agent on July 1, 2017 after splitting last season with the San Jose Sharks and Ottawa Senators.
He spent his first six NHL season with the Sharks and notched career highs in all offensive categories in 2013-14 with 16 goals, 22 assists and 38 points in 77 games.
In 430 career NHL games with the Blackhawks, Senators and Sharks, Wingels has amassed 60 goals and 78 assists (138 points). He has two goals and six assists (eight points) in 54 career Stanley Cup Playoff games.
He was originally drafted by the Sharks in the 6th round (177th overall) of the 2008 NHL Entry Draft and returns to the Commonwealth of Massachusetts as part of this trade since his AHL playing days as a member of the Worcester Sharks from 2010-12.
As a result of the trade, Chicago now has nine picks in the 2019 Draft, including two selections in the 5th round and two selections in the 7th round.
After being acquired by the Ottawa Senators in the Dion Phaneuf–Marian Gaborik trade earlier in February, F Nick Shore is on the move again.
This time the Senators sent Shore to the Calgary Flames for a 2019 7th round pick at Monday’s NHL trade deadline.
Shore, 25, broke into the league in 2014-15 with Los Angeles after being drafted in the 3rd round (82nd overall) by the Kings in 2011. Shore has four goals and 12 assists (16 points in 55 games with Ottawa and Los Angeles this season.
In 227 career NHL games, he has 14-36–50 totals with the Kings and Senators and has a career plus/minus of minus-16. The Denver, Colorado native is currently making $925,000 and is a pending restricted free agent at season’s end.
Ottawa now has eight picks in the 2019 NHL Draft– including two in the 7th round– as a result of this trade.
The first trade of the 2018 NHL Trade Deadline went down around 9:40 a.m. ET.
On Monday, the Columbus Blue Jackets acquired D Ian Cole from the Ottawa Senators in exchange for F Nick Moutrey and a 3rd round pick in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft.
Cole, 29, was previously acquired by the Senators as part of a three-team trade last week with the Pittsburgh Penguins and Vegas Golden Knights.
He has three goals and ten assists (13 points) in 47 games with the Penguins this season and was a healthy scratch during his short tenure with Ottawa.
The 6’1″, 219-pound native of Ann Arbor, Michigan has 18-72–90 totals in 385 career NHL games with the Penguins and St. Louis Blues. A member of the 2016 and 2017 Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins, Cole has 1-13–14 totals in 56 career Stanley Cup Playoff games.
He was originally drafted by St. Louis in the 1st round (18th overall) of the 2007 NHL Entry Draft and is a pending-unrestricted free agent this July.
Moutrey, 22, has three goals and three assists (six points) in 22 games with the Cleveland Monsters (AHL) this season. He has 17-17–34 totals in 136 career AHL games from 2015-18.
The 6’3″, 207-pound native of Toronto, Ontario was originally drafted by Columbus in the 4th round (105th overall) of the 2013 NHL Entry Draft.
Today– Monday, February 26, 2018 for those of you who have yet to look at a calendar– is the annual NHL Trade Deadline. All 31 NHL teams have until 3:00p ET to get their trade calls into the league office before they can get approved (or rejected).
@connorzkeith and I are tackling the challenge of updating this here DTFR Trade Deadline Live Blog while also writing quick recaps and analysis for every trade that occurs.
So gather around your TVs, phones, laptops, tablets or whatever let’s you refresh Twitter all day and chill with us as we all try to survive the inevitable Ottawa Senators-Erik Karlsson debacle madness that is the 2018 NHL Trade Deadline.
DTFR Top-10 Best Available Players to Acquire
In the first deal of the day, the Columbus Blue Jackets acquired D Ian Cole from the Ottawa Senators in exchange for a 3rd round pick in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft and F Nick Moutrey. MORE
The Chicago Blackhawks traded F Ryan Hartman and a 5th round pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft to the Nashville Predators in exchange for F Victor Edjsell, a 1st round pick and a 4th round pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft. MORE
F Paul Stastny was traded by the St. Louis Blues to the Winnipeg Jets in exchange for F Erik Foley, a 2018 1st round pick and a conditional 4th round pick in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft. MORE
D Philip Holm was traded by the Vancouver Canucks to the Vegas Golden Knights in exchange for F Brendan Leipsic. MORE
Columbus acquired F Ryan Kujawinski from the Arizona Coyotes in exchange for F Jordan Maletta. MORE
The San Jose Sharks acquired F Evander Kane from the Buffalo Sabres in exchange for F Danny O’Regan, a conditional 2019 1st round pick and a conditional 2019 4th round pick. MORE
F Jason Chimera was traded to the Anaheim Ducks by the New York Islanders in exchange for F Chris Wagner. MORE
The Columbus Blue Jackets acquired F Thomas Vanek from the Vancouver Canucks in exchange for F Tyler Motte and F Jussi Jokinen. MORE
The Carolina Hurricanes traded F Josh Jooris to the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for F Greg McKegg. MORE
F Tomas Tatar was traded to the Vegas Golden Knights by the Detroit Red Wings in exchange for a 2018 1st round pick, a 2019 2nd round pick and a 2021 3rd round pick. MORE
The Tampa Bay Lightning have acquired D Ryan McDonagh and F J.T. Miller from the New York Rangers in exchange for F Vladislav Namestnikov, F Brett Howden, D Libor Hajek, a 2018 1st round pick and a conditional 2nd round pick in 2019. MORE
The Ottawa Senators traded F Nick Shore to the Calgary Flames in exchange for a 2019 7th round pick. MORE
Winnipeg acquired D Joe Morrow from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for a 2018 4th round pick. MORE
F Patrick Maroon was traded by the Edmonton Oilers to the New Jersey Devils in exchange for F J.D. Dudek and a 2019 3rd round pick. MORE
Montreal acquired D Mike Reilly from the Minnesota Wild in exchanged for a 5th round pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft (via Washington). MORE
Columbus sent F Carter Camper to Arizona for future considerations. MORE
The Boston Bruins acquired F Tommy Wingels from the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for a conditional 5th round pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. MORE
The Colorado Avalanche traded D Chris Bigras to the New York Rangers in exchange for D Ryan Graves. MORE
Arizona acquired F Pierre-Cedric Labrie, D Trevor Murphy and F Derek Army from Nashville for F Tyler Gaudet and D John Ramage. MORE
Derick Brassard was briefly a Golden Knight. Yes, he was flipped from Ottawa to Vegas to Pittsburgh as part of Friday’s three-team trade and technically speaking, he never suited up for Vegas so it doesn’t actually count, but Brassard was once a Golden Knight.
Now, as a result of the Brassard trade, Ryan Reaves is the newest player in Vegas.
Through 60 games (entering Friday), the Vegas Golden Knights are still 1st in the Pacific Division. William Karlsson is in the midst of a career year, Marc-Andre Fleury and James Neal probably won’t be traded at the deadline like everyone thought they would and there’s a real possibility this whole “Cup in One” mantra actually works out.
Thanks in part to the crazy scheduling this time of year– between the NHL, the Winter Games in PyeongChang, the upcoming trade deadline on Monday and much, much more– I was finally able to squeeze in the time to update Golden Knights projections with 22 games remaining in their schedule.
The only problem is that they’ve now played Game 61 of 82 and added Ryan Reaves. So basically, here’s everything I had before anything that happened on Friday.
I’ll try to come up with some projections for Reaves and any other potential acquisitions Vegas makes between now and the deadline, but there’s no promises. Every year around the deadline my database needs constant updating and as a result some things get bogged down until I physically go through every stat.
I do get around to it (eventually) and these players will be reflected in any subsequent projection posts.
Anyway, on with the show…
The Golden Knights aren’t good. They’re great.
Check out the latest forecast in the charts below. Keep in mind, as always, that anything that sounds ridiculous is Microsoft Excel’s fault. I’m just kidding. There are always outliers and unrealistic projections. Alas, these are merely utopian, Excel driven, guesses.
Standard disclaimer, my degree is in communication– not math or #fancystats.
Vegas Golden Knights Projections Through 60 Games (22 Games Remaining)
The sensational season continues and down the stretch as Erik Haula, Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, Neal, David Perron and Reilly Smith are all expected to amass somewhere around 60-points (or more).
Colin Miller‘s emergence as a top defenseman in the Western Conference continues as he nears the 40-point plateau by seasons end. Also, look at Shea Theodore fitting right in as a top-4 quality defenseman just entering his prime. Miller, Nate Schmidt and Theodore for years to come in Vegas should mean many great things.
Meanwhile, Fleury’s incredible run in goal begins to cool off just a little. His goals against average begins to reflect an “average” year for Fleury, which– granted– is still better than a lot of goaltenders in the NHL. Fleury’s save percentage should be just fine down the stretch– if not potentially league-leading.
Trivia night is about to get a lot more fun when you’re asked “what three-team trade originally got rejected by the NHL, then re-worked, finalized and made official with minor tweaks?” The answer is this trade, which although it was originally rejected for “improper use of salary retention mechanism”, totally didn’t do just that in any way whatsoever… sure.
FYI source confirms that the reason the original Pitt-Vegas-Ottawa three-way trade got rejected by the league earlier today was for “improper use of salary retention mechanism”
— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) February 24, 2018
At this rate, there might not be anyone left to trade by Monday’s trade deadline. Also, what is it with Ottawa and three-team trades?
On Friday, the Ottawa Senators traded F Derick Brassard to the Vegas Golden Knights and F Vincent Dunn and a 3rd round pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft to the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Penguins sent D Ian Cole, G Filip Gustavsson, a 1st round pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft and a 3rd round pick in the 2019 draft to the Senators.
In addition, the Golden Knights flipped Brassard along with F Tobias Lindberg to the Penguins for F Ryan Reaves and a 2018 4th round pick (via Vancouver). Vegas retained 40% of Brassard’s cap hit as part of the three-team trade.
For the sake of making it easy to understand:
To OTT: D Ian Cole, G Filip Gustavsson, 2018 1st round pick (PIT) and a 2019 3rd round pick (PIT)
To PIT: F Derick Brassard*, F Vincent Dunn, F Tobias Lindberg and a 2018 3rd round pick (OTT)
To VGK: F Ryan Reaves, 2018 4th round pick (VAN via PIT)
*VGK retain 40% of Brassard’s cap hit in the deal.
Brassard, 30, has 18 goals and 20 assists (38 points) in 58 games this season for the Senators. In his 11th NHL season, the 6’1″, 202-pound center has 159-261–420 totals in 702 career games with the Senators, New York Rangers and Columbus Blue Jackets.
A native of Hull, Québec, Brassard reached the 60-point plateau in 80 games played in 2014-15 with the Rangers. He was originally drafted by Columbus in the 1st round (6th overall) of the 2006 NHL Entry Draft.
In 78 postseason appearances, Brassard has 22-33–55 totals.
Dunn, 22, has split his time this season between the Belleville Senators (AHL) and Brampton Beast (ECHL). The 6’0″, 190-pound native of Hull, Québec has four assists in 17 games for Belleville and 7-1–8 totals in 16 games with Brampton this season.
He was originally chosen by the Senators in the 5th round (138th overall) of the 2013 NHL Entry Draft.
Lindberg, 22, was previously acquired by the Golden Knights along with a 2018 6th round pick in a trade with the Toronto Maple Leafs that sent G Calvin Pickard to Toronto earlier this season.
In 48 games with the Chicago Wolves (AHL) this season, Lindberg has eight goals and ten assists (18 points). He is a native of Stockholm, Sweden and has 25-43–68 totals in 148 career AHL games with the Wolves, Toronto Marlies and Binghamton Senators.
The 6’3″, 215-pound forward was originally drafted by Ottawa in the 4th round (102nd overall) of the 2013 NHL Entry Draft.
Cole, 29, has 13 points (three goals, ten assists) in 47 games played for Pittsburgh this season. He has 18-72–90 totals in 385 career NHL games with the Penguins and St. Louis Blues and is a two-time Stanley Cup champion with the Pens in 2016 and 2017.
The 6’1″, 219-pound defenseman is a native of Ann Arbor, Michigan and is pending-UFA at season’s end. He was originally drafted by St. Louis in the 1st round (18th overall) of the 2007 NHL Entry Draft.
In 56 career postseason games, Cole has one goal and 13 assists (14 points).
Gustavsson, 19, has a 2.16 goals against average and .917 save percentage in 18 games with Luleå HF this season in the SHL. He was drafted by the Penguins in the 2nd round (55th overall) of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft.
Fans of the 2018 IIHF World Junior Championship might remember that Gustavsson was Sweden’s starting goaltender and named the top goaltender in this year’s tournament with a 1.81 GAA and .924 SV% in six games.
As of this trade, Ottawa now has a possible seven picks in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft– two 1st round picks (the Senators can exercise their right to keep a potential top-10 pick in this year’s draft as part of November’s Matt Duchene trade), one 4th round pick, one 5th round pick, one 6th round pick and two 7th round picks.
Reaves, 31, had four goals and four assists (eight points) in 58 games with the Penguins and was previously acquired by Pittsburgh in a trade with the St. Louis Blues at the 2017 NHL Entry Draft on June 23rd.
He has 84 penalty minutes this season and 779 PIM in his career.
A native of Winnipeg, Manitoba in his eighth NHL season, Reaves has 31-28–59 totals in 477 career games with the Penguins and Blues. The 6’1″, 225-pound right winger was originally drafted by the Blues in the 5th round (156th overall) of the 2005 NHL Entry Draft.
Down the Frozen River 
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