Down the Frozen River

Tag: Oscar Dansk

  • March 26 – Day 166 – Potential playoff preview?

    If you’re a fan of a team outside the Eastern playoff picture, your club is in action tonight.

    Get excited.

    The action finds its start at 7 p.m. with a trio of tilts (Buffalo at Toronto, Florida at the New York Islanders and Ottawa at Carolina [RDS2]), followed half an hour later by three more (Washington at the New York Rangers [NBCSN], Detroit at Montréal [RDS/TSN2] and Arizona at Tampa Bay). San Jose at Chicago drops the puck at 8:30 p.m., while Colorado at Vegas (SN1) waits until 10 p.m. Finally, tonight’s nightcap – Calgary at Los Angeles – gets underway at 10:30 p.m. to close out the evening. All times Eastern.

    There’s more than a few games I was looking to at the beginning of the season on today’s schedule, including…

    • Buffalo at Toronto: With the regular season series tied at 1-1-0, Game 3 of the Battle of the QEW goes down tonight!
    • Washington at New York: Another rivalry involving a club from the Empire State, this one takes place in the shadow of the Empire State Building.
    • Detroit at Montréal: Original Six. Need I say more?

    If I had to choose one game out of that group of three, the Washington-New York game certainly has the best chance of being a real thriller. However, that tilt should pale in comparison to what’s going down in The Silver State tonight!

     

     

     

     

     

    What makes this matchup exciting is that, as the playoff picture currently stands, this tilt is operating as a first round preview between the Pacific Division’s top team and the Western Conference’s first wild card.

    But the playoff allusions don’t stop with simply the matchup, though. The Avalanche and Golden Knights tangled only two days ago in Denver to an extremely competitive result headlined by 23-15-6 G Semyon Varlamov, who saved 39-of-40 shots faced (.975 save percentage) – plus three more in the shootout – to earn the Avs a narrow 2-1 victory.

    With neither team playing yesterday, emotions from Saturdays meeting will surely spill into the back half of this home-and-home series. The Golden Knights will surely want to find more success against Varlamov with their home fans behind them, and the Avs are no doubt trying to keep the pressure on Minnesota for third place in the Central Division (more on that later).

    Since the 41-26-8 Avalanche won Saturday, let’s start with them. Colorado has been playing some excellent hockey this March, as it has posted an impressive 7-2-3 record since March 2.

    No matter how you slice it, offense is the resounding name of the game in the Avalanche dressing room. Since March 2, the Avs have averaged an impressive 3.58 goals per game, the fifth-best performance in the NHL in that time.

    F Nathan MacKinnon has been dominating all hockey-related headlines out of Colorado all season (well, at least since that trade), and that’s been no different this month with his dominating 9-12-21 totals in 12 games played to improve his season marks to 38-54-92. Currently (t)third in the league in points and (t)eighth in goals, MacKinnon will be among the top vote-receivers for the Hart Memorial Trophy – it just remains to be seen if he can actually bring the award back to Denver for the first time since C Peter Forsberg did just that in 2003.

    Joining MacKinnon in averaging more than a point per game are the severely underrated RW Mikko Rantanen (7-14-21 totals since March 2, 27-53-80 overall) and D Tyson Barrie (5-8-13 since March 2, 12-40-52 overall). Since February 10, every single one of Barrie’s 23 points have been recorded with either MacKinnon or Rantanen (often both) also registering a point, so his chemistry with Colorado’s first line is not to be taken lightly.

    As made evident by Saturday’s game, another major component to Colorado’s turnaround this season and success over the past month has been Varlamov. Despite the lackluster effort by his defense (he’s faced an average of 35.58 shots per game since March 2, the third-highest mark in the NHL in that time), Varlamov has kept opposing offenses under his thumb by posting an impressive .935 save percentage and 2.31 GAA in his last 11 starts. In total, the 2.5 goals per game the Avalanche have allowed since March 2 is (t)eighth-fewest in the NHL in that time.

    On the season, Varlamov now has a .919 save percentage and 2.73 GAA, the ninth and 16th-best efforts in the NHL, respectively, among the 34 goalies with at least 30 starts.

    However, the Avalanche aren’t the only team March has treated nicely. 47-21-7 Vegas has also had its share of success this month, posting a 5-2-2 record since March 8.

    As important as Varlamov has been for Colorado, 27-11-4 G Marc-Andre Fleury has been even bigger for the Golden Knights lately. Allowing 33.78 shots against per game since March 8, the Knights’ defense has below average lately to rank 12th-worst in the NHL in that time.

    However, you wouldn’t know that by looking at Vegas’ last nine scores, as the Knights have allowed an average of only 2.11 goals against per game over this run, the (t)fewest in the league since March 8.

    That success is due entirely to Fleury, who has posted an impressive .95 save percentage and 1.61 GAA in his last eight starts. With a .93 save percentage and 2.15 GAA on the season (both second-best in the league among qualified goaltenders), Fleury should certainly be in the running for this season’s Vezina Trophy. While I worry he’ll be passed over due to missing so much time this season with injuries, it would be his first individual award should he get enough votes to win the award.

    If Fleury does win the Vezina, does that and his three Stanley Cups make him a lock for the Hockey Hall of Fame? At 33-years-old, these sorts of conversations about Fleury are going to become more and more common.

    Just like I stated in Saturday’s preview, there’s very little the Golden Knights have left to achieve this regular season. The top seed in the Western Conference is virtually out of reach since the Predators have a six-point advantage, and Vegas has effectively locked up its first Pacific Division title in its debut season with its six-point lead on San Jose. The Knights’ focus now is getting healthy, conserving energy and preparing for the postseason.

    If only life were so easy for Colorado.

    The reemergence of the Blues, who trail Colorado by one point from their spot in the second wildcard, paired with the steady pressure from Los Angeles (tied with St. Louis in points, but with one more game played) has put the Avs in a fistfight to not only qualify for the postseason, but also avoid Nashville in the first round.

    Obviously, a win tonight is a step in the right direction for the Avs putting those troubles behind them, but they’re also within range of knocking Minnesota out of third place in the Central (why they’d want to is beyond me – I’d rather stay as far away from Nashville and Winnipeg as possible this postseason). The Wild have 93 points – three more than Colorado – in just as many games played, so that will be a race worth keeping an eye on over the next two weeks.

    One thing the Golden Knights have in their back pocket today is an impressive home ice advantage. Colorado has already fallen victim to that once this season, falling 7-0 on October 27 (G Oscar Dansk led the way with his 32-save effort). However, the Avalanche coming to town tonight are playing approximately one million percent better now than they were at the beginning of the season, so I wouldn’t expect such a lopsided result in the finale of this regular-season series.

    With two hot goalies squaring off for the second time in three days, this game is going to boil down to which offense has the upper hand. Since MacKinnon is leading his red-hot Avalanche attack, its hard to pick against Colorado. However, the Knights have averaged 3.62 goals per game at home this season, so I’d expect a better result by them tonight compared to Saturday’s one-goal performance.

    With a 5-4 overtime win at PPG Paints Arena in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day, the Pittsburgh Penguins completed the season sweep of their arch-rivals, the Philadelphia Flyers.

    As made evident by the necessity of extra time, that victory did not come without its challenges. In fact, the Flyers led after the first period thanks to goals from D Travis Sanheim (Third Star of the Game F Jordan Weal and W Wayne Simmonds) and D Brandon Manning (Weal and F Valtteri Filppula), though it was only by one tally due to C Derick Brassard‘s (W Conor Sheary and RW Phil Kessel) wrist shot registered in between the Flyers’ markers.

    Another three-goal frame was in store in the second period, but the score read 3-3 by the time the Flyers and Penguins retreated to their dressing rooms for the second intermission. RW Patric Hornqvist (Kessel and First Star D Justin Schultz) scored a power play wrister only 37 seconds into the period to level the game at 2-2, followed exactly two minutes later by F Evgeni Malkin (Schultz and D Brian Dumoulin) scoring a snap shot to give Pittsburgh its first lead of the game. However, with 2:50 remaining in the frame, Weal (D Shayne Gostisbehere and LW Oskar Lindblom) managed only his eighth goal of the season to tie the game for the Flyers.

    Second Star C Sidney Crosby (Schultz and F Jake Guentzel) was apparently motivated to outdo Hornqvist, because he returned a one-goal advantage to Pittsburgh only 17 seconds into the third period. That 4-3 score held for exactly 19 minutes before C Sean Couturier (Gostisbehere and F Claude Giroux) scored a wrister with the extra attacker to level the score at 4-4 and force three-on-three overtime.

    The five-minute overtime period nearly reached its midway point before disaster befell the visitors, as W Bryan Rust (Crosby and D Kris Letang) scored a tip-in at the 2:25 mark to register his third game-winning goal of the season.

    Crosby started the play by advancing the puck into the offensive zone, but all three Philadelphia skaters were already in front of him to slow his offensive charge. Surprisingly, Crosby’s usually sure stick-handling skills failed him in his charge towards G Petr Mrazek‘s net, as Gostisbehere never physically influenced the reigning Richard Trophy-winner before the puck ended up in the left corner. The Captain was able to recollect his error, though, and reset the play to Letang at the blue line, who ripped a centering pass for Rust that he was unable to score due to Mrazek’s left pad.

    If at first you don’t succeed, try an try again – just ask Rust. Crosby collected the rebound and fired another quick centering pass, and Rust tucked this puck where Mama hides the cookies to earn Pittsburgh the bonus point.

    G Matt Murray earned the victory after saving 41-of-45 shots faced (.911 save percentage), leaving the overtime loss to Mrazek, who saved 19-of-21 (.905). Mrazek entered the game at the 2:37 mark of the second period following Malkin’s goal that set the score at 3-2. G Alex Lyon saved eight-of-11 (.727) for no decision.

    That is the third-straight match in the DtFR Game of the Day series to require extra time, and the second in a row to end as a home winner. As such, the 92-53-21 hosts in the series have reclaimed a 36-point lead on the roadies.

  • March 24 – Day 164 – Unpredictability at its finest

    It’s a busy Saturday in the NHL, so let’s jump right into today’s schedule!

    First up is Vegas at Colorado (SN1) at 3 p.m., trailed an hour later by Calgary at San Jose as the only other matinee of the day. A whopping eight games (Detroit at Toronto [CBC], Washington at Montréal [NHLN/SN/TVAS], Carolina at Ottawa [CITY/SN1], Arizona at Florida, Tampa Bay at New Jersey, Chicago at the New York Islanders, Buffalo at the New York Rangers and St. Louis at Columbus) drop the puck at 7 p.m., followed by Nashville at Minnesota 60 minutes later. Finally, tonight’s nightcap – Los Angeles at Edmonton (CBC/SN/SN1) – drops the puck at 10 p.m. to close out the day’s festivities. All times Eastern.

    Some of the games I’ve had my eye on include…

    • Detroit at Toronto: Including this one, there’s only four more Original Six matchups left this regular season! Get ’em in while you can!
    • Arizona at Florida: D Jason Demers spent all of last season with the Panthers. Hopefully the Florida faithful will give him a warm welcome tonight.
    • Chicago at New York: With G Jean-Francois Berube and G Anton Forsberg competing for next season’s backup job, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the former get tonight’s start against his former team.
    • Los Angeles at Edmonton: Consider this your fourth and final reminder of the season that the Oilers traded away C Wayne Gretzky.

    However, none of those matchups feature two teams still in the hunt for the postseason. Instead, let’s make the trip to Denver to see what the Avs can do to the Knights!

     

     

     

     

     

    This has been far from a bad week for the 47-21-6 Golden Knights, as they’ve posted a 2-0-1 record over their past three games in spite of 27-11-3 G Marc-Andre Fleury joining Reilly Smith on Vegas’ injury list.

    There was certainly concern when Fleury went down with his head injury in Tuesday’s tilt against the Canucks – not only for the player, but also for the team’s performance. After all, the only reason the Golden Knights shutout the Flames on Sunday was because Fleury put on an amazing performance, saving all 42 shots Calgary fired.

    However, 11-3-2 G Malcolm Subban has easily taken command of the crease in Fleury’s stead, as he completed the starter’s game against Vancouver by allowing a lone goal and followed it up by yielding only two tallies and forcing overtime against the Sharks on Thursday.

    As hinted at before with Fleury’s performance against Calgary, the reason the goaltenders have been so incredible lately is because they’ve been the only line of defense lately. Since March 18, the Golden Knights have allowed an average of 38.67 shots against per game, the second-most of any team in the league in that time.

    It remains to be seen which goaltender will earn the start this afternoon, as Fleury was seen on ice for practice in Denver today.

    Incredibly, the 40-26-8 Avalanche have been one of the best feel good stories of the year in a season that features an expansion team posing a real threat for winning the Stanley Cup. That’s been no less true over the past 16 games, as Colorado has earned a 9-3-4 record since February 20.

    The biggest reason for the Avs’ success this season has been their impressive offense, headed by 2014 Calder-winner F Nathan MacKinnon. Over Colorado’s last 16 games, MacKinnon has posted unbelievable 14-17-31 totals – one point short of averaging two points per game over this run – to improve his season marks to 38-54-92.

    But it hasn’t been just MacKinnon. F Mikko Rantanen and D Tyson Barrie have also been unstoppable lately, managing respective 9-18-27 and 7-14-21 marks since February 20. With Barrie gelling so well with Colorado’s top line, there’s little that can slow down this attack.

    While it might be a little extreme to say Vegas doesn’t care about this match or any other until Game 1 of the Stanley Cup playoffs, the Golden Knights’ fortunes really don’t change all that much with a win, loss or draw. Vegas currently trails Nashville by six points for the Presidents’ Trophy, but that lead is even greater considering the Predators have a game in hand. Similarly, the Knights aren’t all that concerned with second-place San Jose catching up and challenging for the Pacific Division title, as they have a seven-point advantage over their NorCal nemeses.

    However, the same cannot be said for the Avalanche, as they have fallen back into the second wild card after Anaheim’s overtime loss last night in Winnipeg. Since tonight’s tilt is Colorado’s game in hand on the Ducks (at least until tomorrow when Anaheim is in Edmonton while the Avs are dormant), it needs to earn at least one point to jump back into the first wild card. Should the Avs fall in regulation, they risk relinquishing their playoff position to St. Louis, which has a tough matchup of its own in Columbus.

    Colorado and Vegas have squared off only once so far this season, and it was far from a pleasurable experience for the Avs. Colorado was invited to T-Mobile Arena on October 27, where it was pounded into oblivion by the Knights to a 7-0 final score. G Oscar Dansk earned First Star honors with a perfect 32-save performance, while 11 different Golden Knights registered at least a point – four of which posted 1-1-2 totals on the night.

    Whether it’s Fleury or Subban in net today, they are going to face a tough task in trying to slow down the Avs’ dominating attack. Though they’ve been good this season, I think Colorado has what it takes to earn two points at home today.

    Even though the Pittsburgh Penguins were able to rally from a 3-1 deficit in the third period, the New Jersey Devils won yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day at PPG Paints Arena 4-3 in overtime.

    The Devils would eventually score their three goals, but not before the Penguins would take an initial one-goal lead. Third Star of the Game C Sidney Crosby (D Jamie Oleksiak and F Jake Guentzel) scored his 25th goal of the season 2:29 into play, burying a wrist shot to give Pittsburgh a 1-0 advantage that held into the first intermission.

    Head Coach John Hynes must have had some choice words for his club during the first break, because New Jersey absolutely dominated the second frame – or, at least 3:39 of it. D Will Butcher (D Damon Severson and First Star F Taylor Hall) pulled the Devils even 5:15 into the frame with a power play snap shot, followed only 2:05 later by a F Blake Coleman (W Drew Stafford and C Pavel Zacha) backhanded shot that gave Jersey the lead. Second Star C Nico Hischier (D John Moore and Hall) completed the Devils’ blitz with a wrister at the 8:54 mark to give them a 3-1 lead that they held into the second intermission.

    Facing a two-goal deficit, Pittsburgh didn’t waste much time in starting its comeback after the start of the third period. Only 3:13 into the frame, D Brian Dumoulin (Crosby) halved the Devils’ advantage with a slap shot, his fifth goal of the season. The goal horn was brought to life once again 7:39 later, this time by RW Phil Kessel (C Derick Brassard and W Conor Sheary) to level the game at 3-3.

    With that tie holding through the end of regulation, the game advanced into five minutes of three-on-three play. However, Hall (Hischier) needed only 27 seconds of those five minutes to find the game-winner.

    After struggling mightily under an intense forecheck by the Penguins his own defensive zone, Hischier finally ended up with the puck on his stick long enough to fling a pass to Hall waiting near the blue line into the Devils’ offensive zone. Unfortunately for the Penguins, the very defense that was causing such troubles proved to be extremely beneficial to Hall, as he had only G Matt Murray to beat to end the game, which he did with a wrister through the netminder’s five-hole.

    G Keith Kinkaid earned the victory after saving 40-of-43 shots faced (.93 save percentage), leaving the overtime loss to Murray, who saved 30-of-34 (.882).

    Road teams in the DtFR Game of the Day have been an incredibly difficult out lately, as they’ve earned points in 11 of the last 14 featured matchups. As such, the 90-53-21 hosts now have only a 34-point advantage in the series.

  • Numbers Game: Vegas Through 60

    Derick Brassard was briefly a Golden Knight. Yes, he was flipped from Ottawa to Vegas to Pittsburgh as part of Friday’s three-team trade and technically speaking, he never suited up for Vegas so it doesn’t actually count, but Brassard was once a Golden Knight.

    Now, as a result of the Brassard trade, Ryan Reaves is the newest player in Vegas.

    Through 60 games (entering Friday), the Vegas Golden Knights are still 1st in the Pacific Division. William Karlsson is in the midst of a career year, Marc-Andre Fleury and James Neal probably won’t be traded at the deadline like everyone thought they would and there’s a real possibility this whole “Cup in One” mantra actually works out.

    Thanks in part to the crazy scheduling this time of year– between the NHL, the Winter Games in PyeongChang, the upcoming trade deadline on Monday and much, much more– I was finally able to squeeze in the time to update Golden Knights projections with 22 games remaining in their schedule.

    The only problem is that they’ve now played Game 61 of 82 and added Ryan Reaves. So basically, here’s everything I had before anything that happened on Friday.

    I’ll try to come up with some projections for Reaves and any other potential acquisitions Vegas makes between now and the deadline, but there’s no promises. Every year around the deadline my database needs constant updating and as a result some things get bogged down until I physically go through every stat.

    I do get around to it (eventually) and these players will be reflected in any subsequent projection posts.

    Anyway, on with the show…

    The Golden Knights aren’t good. They’re great.

    Check out the latest forecast in the charts below. Keep in mind, as always, that anything that sounds ridiculous is Microsoft Excel’s fault. I’m just kidding. There are always outliers and unrealistic projections. Alas, these are merely utopian, Excel driven, guesses.

    Standard disclaimer, my degree is in communication– not math or #fancystats.

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    Vegas Golden Knights Projections Through 60 Games (22 Games Remaining)

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    The sensational season continues and down the stretch as Erik Haula, Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, Neal, David Perron and Reilly Smith are all expected to amass somewhere around 60-points (or more).

    Colin Miller‘s emergence as a top defenseman in the Western Conference continues as he nears the 40-point plateau by seasons end. Also, look at Shea Theodore fitting right in as a top-4 quality defenseman just entering his prime. Miller, Nate Schmidt and Theodore for years to come in Vegas should mean many great things.

    Meanwhile, Fleury’s incredible run in goal begins to cool off just a little. His goals against average begins to reflect an “average” year for Fleury, which– granted– is still better than a lot of goaltenders in the NHL. Fleury’s save percentage should be just fine down the stretch– if not potentially league-leading.

  • Numbers Game: Vegas at Halftime (Through 41 GP in 2017-18)

    The Western Conference leading Vegas Golden Knights entered their bye week at exactly 41 games played.

    Due to an unintentional– completely accidental– oversight on my behalf, I didn’t remember to look at their stats after 40 games played (like I normally would every 20 games throughout the season). But for the perfectionists in the world out there– it’s better to split things right down the middle.

    Vegas is back in action for the second half of their inaugural season on Saturday after going 29-10-2 (60 points) in their first 41 games in franchise history.

    Earlier in the week, I pointed out that the New Jersey Devils have been quite a pleasant surprise this season. Of course, I made sure to mention the Golden Knights as one of the other pleasant surprises.

    It’s not that nobody expected this team to fail as much as all the other expansion teams in the 100-year history of the league.

    Given the talent pool to choose from and the overall development of professional hockey players/the league itself since the 1990s (it’s a younger, faster, game where great players last well into their 30s and good players are buried in the AHL or playing overseas by the time they’re 30-35 years old), it really shouldn’t surprise anyone that the Golden Knights are at the very least, a competitive– young– team.

    Even still, it’s been quite the euphoric ride.

    A team that poached the Florida Panthers– and many others– at the 2017 Expansion Draft, laid the foundation in 50-plus point scorer, Jon Marchessault, let alone with three-time Stanley Cup champion goaltender, Marc-Andre Fleury. Surely they would have some highlights in their first season.

    Nobody could’ve imagined that same team would be seriously considering keeping Fleury or a guy like James Neal at the trade deadline in the midst of what could shape up to be a long playoff run in their first season, but alas, here we are.

    It’s more than just “Real Deal” James Neal in Sin City. The Golden Knights are the real deal.

    And their forecasted stats for the remaining half of the regular season show it. Though now is about the time where I make sure to mention one little standard disclaimer– my degree is in communication– not math– so any miscalculations or accolades that seem nearly impossible to ascertain are Microsoft Excel’s fault.

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    Vegas Golden Knights Projections Through 41 Games (41 Games Remaining)

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    Simply put, Erik Haula (26-24–50 expected totals), William Karlsson (32-23–55 expected totals) and Marchessault (30-38–68 expected totals) are blazing through the rest of the league and showing no signs of flaming out any time soon.

    It certainly helps that Neal and David Perron are both expected to reach the 60-point plateau, with Reilly Smith not so far behind amassing 19-38–57 expected totals.

    On defense, Deryk Engelland, Colin Miller, Nate Schmidt and Shea Theodore have been leading the charge from the blue line all season long. For Engelland, the adopted son of Las Vegas, a revitalized season defending the league’s newest team might just keep him playing in his backyard for longer than just this season.

    Miller and Schmidt were expected to take on more pronounced top-4 roles with the expectation that at least one of them would develop into a surefire top-2 shutdown defenseman. Miller should max out around 40 points, while Schmidt should put up a cool 30-point season in his first year outside of the United States capital.

    After being sent to the AHL early on in the season, Shea Theodore was only motivated to work harder.

    It wasn’t that he was not desired by an NHL team as clearly Vegas saw value in his game at the Expansion Draft, claiming Theodore from the Anaheim Ducks. Now that the Golden Knights front office and coaches have righted their wrong, Theodore could very well put up 24 points on the season in what is– by all means– a breakout season for the defenseman entering his prime.

    In the net, the Golden Knights have been spectacular. Not only has general manager, George McPhee, come away looking even more like the genius that he already is, but Vegas is stacked at depth in the crease.

    Malcolm Subban‘s playing like a backup that’s capable of taking on a starting role. That’ll be something to keep an eye on, given Fleury’s aging out of his prime– though he has yet to show it. It’s not often that a team has the right pieces to play two goalies almost equally in minutes and be successful.

    In 2011, the Boston Bruins rode the backs of Tim Thomas and Tuukka Rask to the Stanley Cup Final. Interestingly enough, the Vancouver Canucks did the same with Roberto Luongo and Cory Schneider.

    Thomas played his last game as a Bruin in 2012. Luongo was traded by the Canucks in 2014– a year after Vancouver dumped Schneider in New Jersey.

    Two tremendous goalies are better than one from a team record standpoint, but at some point general managers are either forced with a difficult decision due to the salary cap or fall into the fallacy that is the “there can only be one” mantra.

    And Gerard Gallant might end up with some tough decisions down the stretch regarding who to start each night, reminiscent of Mike Sullivan‘s Fleury-Matt Murray swapping during en route to Pittsburgh’s 2016 and 2017 Stanley Cup championships.

    Nonetheless, Oscar Dansk filled in flawlessly when Fleury and Subban were out of the lineup with injuries. Meanwhile, Maxime Lagace performed on another level shortly after Dansk’s introduction to the game when Dansk went down himself due to injury.

    With enough depth in goal to try to get something good in return, the ball is in Vegas’s court as the trade deadline approaches. Though the Golden Knights don’t have to rush things. A little competition for every goaltending job isn’t always a bad thing.

    Being in first place in the Western Conference isn’t good enough for the Golden Knights. They’ve got their sights set even higher, like on a 2018 Stanley Cup Final run, for instance.

    Sin City is looking to shine like gold. Vegas wants the Cup.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #86- Best Misnomers of 2017

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #86- Best Misnomers of 2017

    Nick and Connor pick apart the Central Division, provide injury updates, preview the 2018 Winter Classic and discuss the 2018 IIHF World Junior Championship so far.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

  • Numbers Game: Vegas Through 20 (2017-18)

    By now I’m sure you’re all tired of hearing and reading what I have said and written about the Boston Bruins, so let’s check out how some former Bruins– Colin Miller, Reilly Smith and Malcolm Subban— are doing.

    The Vegas Golden Knights have redefined what it means to be an expansion team in the modern NHL. They’re leading the Pacific Division at the American Thanksgiving mark, you guys. Clearly this means they’ll be the 2018 Stanley Cup champions and all of my work will be for nothing.

    But seriously though, part of me thinks the Golden Knights will for sure make the playoffs. As for how far they’ll go, well, let’s just save us all the surprise of the potential postseason for when it gets here. How’s that sound?

    Now without saying too much more, keep in mind my degree is in communication– not math– so blame anything that looks strange on Microsoft Excel instead of me, thanks.

    Remember that sometimes what you see below is pure speculation, pure “potential” (*ahem* Alex Tuch) and a bunch of nonsense that all relates to how much a player has played thus far in their career combined with how they’re tracking through the first 20 games the team in Sin City has played.

    Here’s a look at how every player in Vegas should pan out over the next 62 games remaining in the 2017-2018 regular season.

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    Vegas Golden Knights Projections Through 20 Games (62 Games Remaining)

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    Without any real surprises from Jonathan Marchessault, James Neal, David Perron and Reilly Smith, the Golden Knights biggest surprise at forward has been William Karlsson. Karlsson’s hot scoring hands look to continue throughout the season, setting what should be career highs in goals, assists and points (of course).

    Tomas Nosek should be fun to watch if you’re into depth scoring.

    It’s safe to say that we all expected Colin Miller and Nate Schmidt to emerge as high caliber defensemen, but what’s even more incredible is that they’re doing so while the rest of their teammates on the blue line are also contributing immensely to the assist column.

    Sure, it’ll be great to see Deryk Engelland put away a few more pucks in the back of the net than he did last season, but consider the scoring potential of Shea Theodore now that Golden Knights general manager, George McPhee, has done the right thing in regards to calling him up and giving him a go. Clearly Gerard Gallant knows what he’s doing with this one.

    Though it wouldn’t hurt to recall Jason Garrison and send Griffin Reinhart to the Chicago Wolves (AHL). Especially since Garrison could actually contribute to the team, while Reinhart sits in the press box as a healthy scratch from night-to-night.

    In addition to the pleasant surprises we’ve seen from all of the skaters, consider the impressive depth in the crease the Golden Knights have stockpiled behind the eventual return of Marc-Andre Fleury to fortress in front of the twine.

    Malcolm Subban’s settling into a NHL career, while Maxime Lagace— albeit a non-competitor for the backup job currently– should pan out just fine in future years. What a find, Vegas.

    If Oscar Dansk can ever make it back to dancing with the NHL level of the game, don’t be surprised to see a few heads turning around the rest of the league and some trade offers being made. Vegas is in good shape to have a plethora of established youth in goal, considering the injuries the Montreal Canadiens are currently facing and/or the potential future goaltender injuries for other teams.

    Vegas just might make the playoffs as they continue to stake their claim as “the greatest expansion franchise in league history (if not all major North American professional sports)”.

    Oh, and their Corsi is pretty good too, but I digress.

    If you’re interested in seeing what was expected before a puck dropped this season, check out my initial projections for the inaugural Vegas Golden Knights season.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #78- Just Give Them Actual Sweaters

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #78- Just Give Them Actual Sweaters

    Nick and Connor rant about the standings entering November, how good the New Jersey Devils and Vancouver Canucks are and blast the 2018 Winter Games jerseys for Canada and USA (they’re bad, very bad).

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

  • Merkle’s Weekly Bumblings: Week 3

    Player of the Week: Jakub Voracek

    Stealthy good. Not only an apt description of the big Flyers winger’s week (and season), but really of his entire career. Voracek has been one of the best ‘under-the-radar’ players in the league for some time, and this week he was really flying (pun somewhat intended). On a team that finished the week 1-2-0, Voracek was a major bright spot, tallying 2 points in every game. The Kladno, CZE native notched an assist on both Flyers goals in a 6-2 thumping against Anaheim, then tallied 1 & 1 in each of their next two contests (a 5-4 loss to Ottawa and 4-2 victory over Toronto). Oddly, not a single one of his 6 points in those 3 games came on the power play, an area where Voracek usually excels.

    Side note: Though Voracek is currently 3rd in points in the entire league (trailing only Tampa’s dynamic duo of Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov), those goals in back to back games were just his 1st and 2nd tallies of the year. He’s 2nd in the league in assists with 14.

    Team of the Week: Los Angeles Kings

    One of the league’s resident surprises, LA has surged to the top of the standings with a 9-1-1 record, and though they suffered their first regulation loss this week, it wasn’t enough to prevent them earning this recognition.

    With 8 players having recorded at least 5 points so far in the young season, and a goaltending duo both boasting sub-2.00 GAAs and >.930 save percentages, the resurgent Kings are getting contributions from seemingly everyone. Dustin Brown has burst back to life after multiple subpar seasons, seemingly flourishing in the system of new coach John Stevens. Anze Kopitar continues to make an argument for being possibly the most undervalued center in the league, and youngster Adrian Kempe has been sublime.

    Only a 3-2 loss to Toronto managed to blemish an otherwise-flawless week, as the Kings toppled Ottawa 3-2, Montreal 4-0, and Boston 2-1. A long summer and a fresh face behind the bench may have been just what the doctor ordered for the battle-weary club, and other clubs may need to start worrying about how to deal with a Cup-hungry LA franchise once again.

    Game of the Week: Dallas Stars 4 @ Edmonton Oilers 5, Thursday October 26th

    I admittedly have an affinity to games decided in extra frames when it comes to this award, but the Stars and Oilers simply put on a barn-burner too good to ignore.

    One of those matchups that just looks like it’s going to be fun on paper (two high-octane offenses backed up by less-than-stellar defenses), this tilt certainly delivered. 9 goals (3 on the power play), 67 shots, 56 hits, and even a fight (okay, more of a facial reconstruction on Antoine Roussel by Eric Gryba), this one had plenty of everything.

    The opening period started with a bit of a goaltending duel, with Ben Bishop and Cam Talbot both making a handful of quality stops in the opening half of the frame. But as a penalty to Ryan Strome was expiring just past the 11 minute mark, Leon Draisaitl collected a loose puck and fought through a check along the boards to push the puck ahead to the newly-freed Strome, who flicked a no-look backhand from the boards into the middle of the ice, feeding a streaking Connor McDavid in full stride, who proceeded to shelf the puck over the blocker side of Bishop to give the hometown Oilers the 1-0 lead. A see-saw contest would develop from there, as just over 1 minute later opposing captain Jamie Benn would bury a sweet feed from Alex Radulov to knot things up. Patrick Maroon would see a centering attempt turn into a goal after bouncing off the skate of Dallas defender Marc Methot and into the net with just 25 seconds to play in the opening frame, sending the Oil to the locker room with a 2-1 lead.

    Radulov and Benn would both tally power-play goals in the 2nd, with a Ryan Nugent-Hopkins goal splitting the two and sending the game into the 3rd period tied at 3. To break the streak of trading goals, Esa Lindell would bury Dallas’ 3rd PP tally after receiving a sweet cross-ice slap-pass from Jason Spezza just over halfway through the 3rd, giving the Stars their first lead of the night. Unfortunately for the Dallas faithful it would last just shy of 2 minutes, as RNH would net his second of the night to draw even at 4. Then with less than 3 to play, defenseman Matt Benning would give Draisaitl his 3rd assist of the night by burying a one-timer from the point (with a bit of help from the skate of Alexander Radulov) and giving the Oilers the final lead of the game.

    News, Notes, & Nonsense:

    Seriously, Golden Knights, about this Twitter campaign to be the next winning goaltender for your franchise? Oscar Dansk is 3-0-0 after being handed the starting job when both Marc-Andre Fleury and Malcolm Subban went down with injuries, and boasts a ridiculous 1.34 GAA and .959 save percentage, along with a shutout.

    I’m starting to actually believe anyone wearing goalie equipment could win the Vezina with this team.

     

    Speaking of roster vacancies in Vegas, Vadim Shipachyov earned himself a suspension by going all ‘Russian’ on the franchise after being sent down to the AHL. He has supposedly gone AWOL from the Chicago Wolves, and his future with the Golden Knights (and potentially the NHL altogether) is looking pretty well decided.

    Alex Ovechkin made headlines off the ice, as the Capitals superstar went out of his way to buy a sweater, coat, and hat for a shirtless homeless man he spotted while walking in Edmonton. Ovie downplayed his actions and attempted to avoid questions about it in interviews, stating that “It was nothing,” following up with “I think if you saw a guy almost naked out there with a cold temperature, I think every human can do something, a coat, a shirt, or whatever.” Autograph hounds throughout the league were seen disrobing and untidying their hair soon after word of Ovie’s actions reached the airwaves*.

    *- I assume

    Kevin Bieksa successfully utilized a ‘Superman Punch’ in a fight for the 2nd time in his career, with both instances occurring against the Philadelphia Flyers. Radko Gudas was on the receiving end of this most recent entry, while years ago it was Mike Richards. This does beg the question of why you would choose to fight Kevin Bieksa.

    The Habs and Rangers had a contest to see who was the least worst, and in fitting fashion, it was an ugly thing. 9 total goals on Carey Price and Henrik Lundqvist, the former getting the…better?…of the latter, with both teams looking sloppy and discombobulated. I suppose either team can take solace in knowing they are better than Arizona, but I don’t know exactly how much solace can actually be taken from that knowledge.

    Can Arizona go an entire season without a victory? I think we should all get behind them in their efforts to set the least enviable record in hockey history. 10 down, 72 to go.

  • October 29 – Day 26 – Welcome to the NHL

    With three games on tap today, the last Sunday of October won’t go quietly.

    What makes today exciting, especially for fans with access to NHL Game Center, is that all three contests will be played independent of each other. With two hours separating the opening puck drop of each match, inspired hockey fans should be able to devote their entire attention to only one game at a time for almost the entirety of today’s schedule.

    Of course, by me saying that, I’m asking for three shootouts today. That’d be my luck.

    All three of today’s games are East-West matchups, so – barring a meeting in the Stanley Cup Finals – this is one of only two meetings between the clubs this season. First up is Anaheim’s yearly visit to Carolina at 5 p.m., followed two hours later by Pittsburgh at Winnipeg (NHLN/SN/TVAS) to complete their season series. Finally, Washington at Calgary (SN360) – tonight’s nightcap – finds its start at 9 p.m. to close out today’s festivities. All times Eastern.

    After playing in Minnesota last night, the Penguins will be playing a second game in as many days. That means G Casey DeSmith is all but certain to get his first-ever NHL start. Let’s take it in, shall we?

     

    DeSmith’s path to the NHL has been a quick but peculiar one. The 26-year-old native of Rochester, N.H. has been playing big kid, organized hockey since his days with the Indiana Ice, a now dormant team in the USHL junior league. Of particular note was that Indiana qualified for the playoffs both years DeSmith was a member of the club and that both postseason appearances ended with him owning a save percentage of at least .922.

    After posting a .92 regular season save percentage in 2010-’11 during his second season with the Ice, DeSmith earned the opportunity to play for the University of New Hampshire. DeSmith played three years with the Wildcats, posting .926, .924 and .92 season save percentages in a total of 97 games. He was forced to forgo his senior season after not getting an NCAA waiver to transfer to a new school after being dismissed from the Wildcats for assault charges that were later dismissed.

    After sitting out the 2014-’15 season entirely, DeSmith signed a contract with the Wheeling Nailers, Pittsburgh’s ECHL affiliate, and played 13 games in 2016 before being loaned within the Penguins’ system to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. DeSmith performed brilliantly with the Baby Pens to earn a 1.94 GAA and .925 save percentage in six regular season appearances, followed by a .919 save percentage, 2.44 GAA effort in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton’s nine playoff games before being eliminated from Calder Cup contention.

    That strong performance earned DeSmith a full-time role with the Penguins as G Tristan Jarry‘s backup, and he didn’t disappoint. Playing in 29 games in his first full season as a pro, DeSmith posted a .926 season save percentage and 2.01 GAA. in 29 games. Impressive stuff.

    Another season, another contract for DeSmith. This offseason, he signed a two-way deal with Pittsburgh to cement himself as the fourth-string goaltender within the Penguins organization behind goaltenders Matthew Murray, Antti Niemi and Jarry.

    At the mention of Niemi, it’s now time to discuss why DeSmith is in Winnipeg tonight in the first place. Also signed this offseason, Niemi was brought in to replace fan-favorite G Marc-Andre Fleury as Murray’s backup, but he failed miserably. In only three starts, he allowed a whopping 16 goals for a .797 season save percentage and 7.5 GAA. That led to him being waived and eventually being claimed by the Florida Panthers to fill in for G Roberto Luongo, which created a hole in Pittsburgh’s lineup.

    At first, it was expected Jarry would be called up like he was at the end of last season when Murray was injured. After all, one game of NHL experience surely trumps only one full season of AHL play, right?

    Apparently not. General Manager Jim Rutherford elected to call up DeSmith instead for two reasons: (1) he wants to ensure Jarry continues to get playing time to further his development (that’s hard to do when earning only one start per week – at most), and (2) DeSmith has been nearly unbeatable to start this season.

    In three games, 3-0-0 DeSmith has allowed only three goals against for a .98 GAA. Both his GAA and his .965 save percentage are top-four in the AHL and well superior to Jarry’s 3.18 GAA and .897 save percentage. Throw in his perfect performance against the shootout, and he’s certainly the hot hand in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton and worthy of the call up.

    Of course, even the worst NHL offense is all but certainly better than the top offense in the AHL, so DeSmith could be in for a long night behind a 7-4-1 Pittsburgh defense that allows a 14th-highest 32.6 shots against-per-game.

    Fortunately for him, his first taste of the top hockey league in the world comes against a sputtering 4-3-2 Jets team that manages only a (t)eighth-worst 2.67 goals-per-game on a fourth-fewest 29.6 shots-per-game.

    It’s surprising that Winnipeg’s offensive numbers are so low considering it has the incredible RW Patrik Laine at its disposal. Then again, is it any surprise that opposing defenses are concentrating their efforts on 2016’s second-overall pick in the NHL Entry Draft that managed 36-28-64 totals in his rookie season? He’s only managed a 4-2-6 effort so far in nine games, but linemate W Nikolaj Ehlers has picked up the slack for the second line with his team-leading six goals.

    Instead, it’s been the Jets’ top line – specifically C Mark Scheifele and RW Blake Wheeler – that has provided most of Winnipeg’s limited offense. Both Scheifele and Wheeler have eight points to their credit to tie for the team lead, so shutting them down will be objective number one for D Ian Cole and the Penguins.

    Should expectations be that high for DeSmith tonight? Probably not, though I’m sure he’d love to put his hat in the ring alongside G Oscar Dansk for best unexpected goaltending debut of the 2017-’18 season. In reality, stories like that are few and far between, so I like the Jets to pull things together tonight against a tired Pittsburgh club and earn two points at home.

    With three goals in the third period, the Washington Capitals were able to beat the Edmonton Oilers 5-2 at Rogers Place in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day.

    This game belonged to Edmonton early, as the Oil had a 2-0 lead with two minutes remaining in the first period courtesy of tallies from LW Patrick Maroon (C Connor McDavid and F Leon Draisaitl) and Third Star of the Game D Adam Larsson (C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and LW Milan Lucic) after firing a game-high 16 shots at G Braden Holtby. That advantage would not last into the first intermission though, as W Devante Smith-Pelly (D John Carlson and Second Star W Alex Ovechkin) cut Edmonton’s lead in half with a snap shot to beat G Cam Talbot with 18 seconds remaining in the first frame.

    The lone goal of the second period leveled the game for the Capitals. Just like Smith-Pelly, C Lars Eller (D Madison Bowey and Ovechkin) registered his first goal of the season on a slap shot with 9:28 remaining on the second period clock to set the score at two-all. It wasn’t exactly the best of games for Eller considering he earned two of his three seats in the penalty box for sending the puck over the glass, but hey, he scored, so that’s great.

    A player who truly had a great game was First Star C Evgeny Kuznetsov, who scored two of Washington’s three goals in the third period. His first, which proved to be the game-winner, was struck only 30 seconds into the frame after assists from Ovechkin and Bowey.

    Ovechkin deserves a lot of the credit for the goal, as it was his initial shot from the top of the left face-off circle that did most the work. Seeing Kuznetsov streaking towards Talbot’s crease undefended, he centered the puck in a spot that forced Talbot to attempt to make a save, allowing the center to redirect the shot past the netminder’s right leg.

    That wasn’t Kuznetsov’s only trick, as he also buried an unassisted insurance tally with 4:04 remaining in regulation to apply further heat to the Oilers. F Jay Beagle (Eller) tacked on Washington’s final goal with 19 seconds remaining in the game to set the 5-2 final score.

    Holtby earned the victory after saving 38-of-40 shots faced (.95 save percentage), leaving the loss to Talbot, who saved 26-of-30 (.867).

    The Capitals’ victory is the second straight by a road team in the DtFR Game of the Day series and pulls the visitors within six points of the 14-8-4 hosts.

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #77- Boo: A Very Merry Boone Jenner Halloween

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #77- Boo: A Very Merry Boone Jenner Halloween

    Nick, Connor and Cap’n address the news and notes from the past week of NHL action, discuss the demise of Antti Niemi, as well as take a gamble on the Vegas Golden Knights. The Los Angeles Kings are good (and lucky, according to Cap’n) and the Montreal Canadiens are bad (very bad). Also, Dwayne Roloson was 42 in 2011 (not 39).

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.