Down the Frozen River

Tag: Nolan

  • St. Louis Blues 2018-2019 Season Preview

    St. Louis Blues

    44-32-6, 94 points, fifth in the Central Division

    Additions: C Tyler Bozak, F Brian Flynn, G Chad Johnson, D Joey LaLeggia, LW Patrick Maroon, D Niko Mikkola, F Jordan Nolan, F Ryan O’Reilly, W David Perron, D Tyler Wotherspoon

    Subtractions: RW Beau Bennett (signed with Dinamo Minsk, KHL), F Patrik Berglund (traded to BUF), C Kyle Brodziak (signed with EDM), G Carter Hutton (signed with BUF), D Petteri Lindbohm (signed with Lausanne, NL), C Wade Megan (signed with DET), F Vladimir Sobotka (traded to BUF), F Tage Thompson (traded to BUF)

    Offseason Analysis: The best metaphor for the Blues’ offseason just might be a fishing analogy.

    While there was certainly a big fish to be caught (for those still in the dark, Toronto signing C John Tavares is by far the catch of the summer), General Manager Doug Armstrong won the volume competition, as he cast a wide net and brought in at least four offensive additions that should see significant playing time this season.

    And that’s not to say Armstrong simply acquired anyone willing to move to the Gateway to the West. To continue our fishing analogy, Armstrong’s nets had large holes to grab only the biggest of names available this summer.

    Bozak and Perron represent St. Louis’ primary signings from the summer’s free agency frenzy. Bozak, a player coming off posting 11-32-43 totals in Toronto last season, and Perron, who scored 16-50-66 marks (by far a career-high in assists) with the Western Conference champion Vegas Golden Knights, were both signed on July 1 and would have represented an excellent offseason simply between themselves.

    Maroon, who has posted more than 40 points in both of his last two seasons, was signed nine days later to a one-year deal, but it was really the July 1 trade with the Sabres for O’Reilly that set the Blues apart and set such high expectations. For the price of two bottom-nine forwards, a prospect, and two draft picks (a first in 2019 and a second in 2021), the Blues added a legitimate top-six center that has posted at least 55 points in six of his last seven seasons (an injury limited his action to only 29 games in 2012-13).

    Fifty-five points, with his best being a 64-point effort in 2013-14? Aren’t expectations a little high that he’ll be the one to propel the Notes back into the playoffs?

    We need to remember that O’Reilly has only played for Colorado (2009-2015) and Buffalo (2015-2018) during his career – neither of which I would say were exactly abounding in talent during his tenures. Should he earn the role of starting center (as many expect he will) over F Brayden Schenn, he’ll be playing alongside one of the best right wings in the league in Vladimir Tarasenko and up-and-coming 26-year-old F Jaden Schwartz, who posted 14-21-35 totals in 30 games to open the season before suffering a lower-body injury that sidelined him for more than a month.

    If we’re looking for something that smells fishy, I’d sooner look to St. Louis’ goaltending situation. Far and away, the Notes’ best netminder last season was Hutton with his 17-7-3 record on a .931 save percentage and 2.09 GAA. Instead of resigning him, Armstrong allowed him to take his talents to the Queen City, leading to former Sabres goalie Johnson making his way to the Gateway City.

    With no new starter in sight (23-year-old G Ville Husso still needs more time in the AHL to develop), that means G Jake Allen (who just yesterday was reported to be struggling with back spasms that will keep him off the ice for much of training camp) will regain his starting job even though he managed only a 27-25-3 record on an abysmal .906 save percentage and 2.75 GAA last season.

    For at least the last two campaigns, Allen has made a horrendous habit of falling into cold streaks that extend longer than a month. In 19 appearances between December 12 and March 8 last season, Allen managed a terrible 2-14-0 record on a .897 save percentage and 3.17 GAA.

    For a team with aspirations as high as the Blues’, I’m surprised this issue was not given more attention to result in a better acquisition than Johnson. While the goalie free agent market was fairly lean, Armstrong showed he was willing to make a blockbuster trade when he made the O’Reilly deal. Instead, this entire season rests firmly on Allen’s shoulders, as his incredible defense (the Blues’ 29.7 shots allowed last season was best in the Western Conference) can do only so much before he has to make a save.

    Offseason Grade: B+

    There’s no doubt the Blues were unhappy missing the playoffs last season. However, while they certainly did more than enough to improve an attack that already boasted three 20-goal scorers (Tarasenko, Schenn and Schwartz), I have major concerns with Allen getting handed the reins after being arguably the biggest problem last season. If he can’t rise to the challenge and return to his 2015-2016 form that led the Notes to second in the Central Division (remember, G Brian Elliott was in net when that team went all the way to the Western Finals), all this offseason work was for naught.

    As a bonus interesting note, Perron has never signed a contract with any club other than the St. Louis Blues, even though he’s worn four other crests in his career and is embarking upon his third stint with the organization.

    I don’t know how important that is, but now you’ll have an answer if you’re ever posed with that trivia question at your local watering hole.

  • 2018 Offseason Preview: Buffalo Sabres

    With the most coveted trophy in sports being handed out Thursday night in Sin City, the 2017-18 season came to a bittersweet end. However, before the Washington Capitals had even finished taking their victory laps around T-Mobile Arena, Down the Frozen River was already taking a look ahead at all the exciting possibilities this summer.

    Welcome to the 2018 NHL offseason.

    Stay tuned to DtFR for the next 10 days, as we’ll be breaking down each and every team’s needs, wants, holes and excesses and how they might address them before training camps commence in September.

    We’ll be tackling this series in the same order as the 2018 NHL Entry Draft, so that means the Buffalo Sabres are first up!

    2018 NHL Entry Draft

    Forgive me for making too many assumptions, but I think this might be the most clear-cut decision of the offseason for any of the 31 clubs in the NHL. The first round of the 2018 NHL Entry Draft is scheduled for June 22, and it might as well start with D Rasmus Dahlin standing next to Commissioner Gary Bettman already wearing blue and gold.

    Whether or not the 18-year-old Swede will be able to play the high-level defense demanded of this league right out of the gate is irrelevant, as Dahlin is clearly the most talented option available in this year’s crop of prospects.

    Assuming they select him like everyone believes they will, the Sabres are hoping Dahlin develops into the two-way defenseman of any coach’s dreams: one cut from the same mold as Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson, but potentially even better.

    If the 2017-18 season in his domestic league is any indicator, Dahlin will only continue to impress. His 19:02 time on ice per game was third on his team (Frölunda HC in the SHL) behind two players at least nine years his senior, and his .49 points per game was 13th-best in the league among all defensemen that played at least 35 games (another group in which every other player was at least four years older than him).

    Of course, what truly sets Dahlin apart is his scoring touch. In only 41 games played this season, the young blueliner buried seven goals for .17 goals per game. Among defensemen that played at least eight games, that was second-best in the SHL.

    Seven goals may not sound like a lot, but the number grows much more impressive when we acknowledge that he managed one more marker than the Sabres’ current No. 1 defenseman, Rasmus Ristolainen, who had the benefit of 32 more games played this season.

    In other words, Dahlin should slot in nicely as a bottom-four defenseman for Buffalo in his debut season.

    Pending free agents

    With a touch over $19 million in projected cap space, the Sabres – who finished the season with a league-worst 25-45-12 record – have only nine NHL contracts that expired when the campaign came to a close, split as evenly as possible among the three positions and between the restricted and unrestricted varieties.

    F Jordan Nolan and LW Benoit Pouliot are Buffalo’s only forwards that could become UFAs come July 1, and it has rights to F Sam Reinhart and F Scott Wilson due to them being RFAs since they are under 27-years-old.

    Of those, 22-year-old Reinhart is clearly the most valuable, as his (t)team-leading 25 goals and .61 points per game from the 2017-18 season easily dwarf the efforts of Wilson (six goals, .29 point per game), Pouliot (13 goals, .26 points per game) and Nolan (four goals, .12 points per game).

    It would certainly not be unexpected for General Manager Jason Botterill and Reinhart to hammer out a four-year deal that saw the forward receive an increase in pay from the $3.5 million per year he’s been receiving from his entry-level contract, as a signing of that length would allow the player to test free agency at its completion. I’d estimate a pay increase to at least $4 million per year, likely more.

    There is always the possibility that Buffalo could trade the natural center, who spent a lot of the season on the wing due to the Sabres’ plethora of talent at that position, but I’m led to believe the rumors that F Ryan O’Reilly could be on the move sooner than Reinhart, who has yet post a season worse than the one before it. That would free up $7.5 million and a center position for Reinhart, which would allow W Alexander Nylander to compete for a full-time roster spot of his own.

    Defensively, D Victor Antipin is Buffalo’s only RFA, while both D Justin Falk and D Josh Gorges are slated to test free agency. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Falk in new colors come September, but the Sabres would be silly not to keep Antipin – who averaged .21 points per game in 47 showings this season, the fourth-best of any Buffalo defenseman with at least 38 appearances – in the organization.

    Oh, he said he’s going to head back to the KHL next season? Dang… Well, the league’s (t)ninth-worst defense in terms of shots against just took another step back. All eyes are truly on you Dahlin, though D Brendan Guhle – Buffalo’s second-round pick in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft – will likely have intentions of earning a full-time role with the Sabres instead of the Rochester Americans.

    Where things are undoubtedly going to look different in the 2018-19 season for Buffalo is its goaltending depth chart, as G Jonas Johansson and G Linus Ullmark are the only two netminders with contracts in the Sabres’ system. Botterill has indicated that Ullmark will be one of Buffalo’s two goalies, which doesn’t look good for 31-year-old UFA G Chad Johnson‘s chances of returning to Upstate New York.

    Sporting a .908 save percentage in 50 starts this season, RFA G Robin Lehner is also unlikely to get much attention from the Sabres this offseason. Since he made $4 million this season, Buffalo would have to offer him another one-year contract at the same price unless it took him to arbitration, which would only bring the deal down to $3.4 million. Instead of the club going through all that, I think Botterill will try to attract the services of a free agent from outside the organization or package Lehner’s rights in a deal for a more established netminder.

    If free agency is the route the Sabres elect to take, one of the most attractive free agent goaltenders this summer is going to be G Carter Hutton. Though he is 32-years-old, it’s hard to knock Hutton’s .931 save percentage and 17-7-3 record in a season that saw him take home only $1 million. Hutton will likely earn himself a pay raise on what should be his last major contract, but he will likely still fall within Botterill’s budget.

  • February 12 – Day 116 – Atlantic animosity

    It’s Sunday Funday! Six fixtures are on tap today, starting with San Jose at New Jersey (SN1/SN360) at 12:30 p.m. Detroit at Minnesota (NBC) drops the puck at 3 p.m., followed three hours later by the final two matinees of the day (Dallas at Nashville [TVAS] and Colorado at the New York Islanders). Finally, this evening’s co-nightcaps (Montréal at Boston [NBCSN/RDS/SN] and Vancouver at Buffalo) drop the puck at 7:30 p.m. to finish up the day. All times eastern.

    Short list:

    • San Jose at New Jersey: Last season, David Schlemko played for the Devils, but now he visits the Prudential Center wearing white.
    • Detroit at Minnesota: Thomas Vanek is also making his first return to a former home arena today, but he spent two seasons with the Wild.
    • Montréal at Boston: Oh yeah, there’s also arguably the most important rivalry in hockey being played tonight.

    Take a guess which game we’re focusing on.

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    The rivalry between these two doesn’t need to be set up; each game simply adds to the history.

    The Canadiens come into tonight’s game with a 31-18-8 record, good enough for first place in the Atlantic Division (shh, we’re not talking about how Ottawa only trails them by six points with four games in hand). Although they’ve been exemplary on both ends of the ice, it’s been their offense that has truly been impressive. The Habs have registered 164 tallies this season, which ties for sixth-most in the league.

    The man leading that charge is none other than Captain Max Pacioretty, as his 50 points are eight more than second-place Alexander Radulov. Pacioretty also claims the scoring title, and by an even wider margin: his 28 tallies are double those of Paul Byron and Radulov.

    Much of that success stems from a dominant power play. Scoring on 22.1% of attempts, the Canadiens tie for the fifth-best effort in the NHL. While Pacioretty commands the even-strength play, Shea Weber has taken the man-advantage to heart with his team-leading 18 power play points. 10 of those have been goals, which is also the team-high with the extra-man.

    If there’s one place the Habs should try to improve before the trade deadline, it should be their penalty kill. Even with Weber’s team-leading 32 shorthanded shot blocks, Montréal stops only 79.2% of opposing power plays – the ninth-worst rate in the league.

    Every time I think about writing off the 28-23-6 Bruins, they go and do something like the two-game winning streak they’re riding right now. When Boston has found success this season, it’s been on the offensive end where they’ve notched 151 tallies, which ties for 14th-most in the league.

    Brad Marchand has been at the middle of it all this season, as his 57 points are tops in New England. For those that are good at math, they’ll note that’s a point-per-game; he’s one of seven players with at least 47 games played that can stake that claim. That being said, it’s been youngster David Pastrnak that has turned the most heads this year with his team-leading 25 goals.

    Even more impressive than the Bruins‘ offense has been their penalty kill. Led by Captain Zdeno Chara‘s 27 shorthanded shot blocks, Boston stops 85.9% of opposing power plays – the second-best rate in the league.

    It’s hard to argue that Montréal doesn’t have the Bruins‘ number this season. In their last three meetings, the Habs have accumulated a 2-0-1 record, including a 4-2 victory the last time they met in the TD Garden. Boston‘s best effort against the Canadiens was the last time they played, when they forced overtime before falling 2-1 at the Bell Center.

    Some players to keep an eye on this evening include Boston‘s Marchand (57 points [tied for fourth-most in the NHL]), Pastrnak (25 goals [tied for eighth-most in the league]) and Tuukka Rask (five shutouts [tied for third-most in the NHL] among 26 wins [tied for sixth-most in the league] on a 2.32 GAA [tied for eighth-best in the NHL]) & Montréal‘s Pacioretty (28 goals [third-most in the league]) and Carey Price (24 wins [ninth-most in the NHL]).

    Vegas trusts Boston to earn a home victory this evening, marking them with a -135 line. The Bruins certainly have new life under Bruce Cassidy and are riding their winning streak, but I’ve grown leery when they’re playing at home given they’re only 14-13-0 at the TD Garden. I suppose I’ll take the Bruins to win, but the Habs will probably still force overtime.

    Hockey Birthday

    • Owen Nolan (1972-) – Even though he hasn’t played since 2010, this right wing is still the third-most recent United Kingdom-native to play in the NHL. He was the first overall pick in the 1990 NHL Entry Draft by Quebec, but the five-time All Star played most of his career in San Jose.
    • Jonas Hiller (1982-) – Although this goaltender’s most recent NHL club was the Flames, he’s spent most of his career in Anaheim. He has a career 197-140-37 record in 374 starts.

    Yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day featured one of the four upsets of the day when the Sabres bested Toronto 3-1 at the Air Canada Centre.

    Buffalo employed an impressive blitz technique, scoring three goals in the first period before the Maple Leafs had a chance to think. First Star of the Game Evander Kane (Sam Reinhart and Third Star Jack Eichel) takes credit for the first tally with a snap shot only 4:13 after the initial puck drop, followed 55 seconds later by Reinhart’s (Kyle Okposo and Eichel) game-winning power play snap shot. Kane (Eichel and Justin Falk) also took credit for Buffalo‘s final tally of the game, a snap shot with 1:58 remaining in the frame.

    Mitch Marner (Tyler Bozak and Nikita Zaitsev) was the lone Leaf to get on the scoreboard, scoring a power play wrap-around shot with 4:03 remaining in the second period, but Toronto could not find another tally before the final horn.

    Second Star Robin Lehner earns the victory after saving an incredible 43-of-44 shots faced (97.7%), leaving the loss to Frederik Andersen, who saved 20-of-23 (87%).

    The Sabres‘ win is the second-straight by a road team in the DtFR Game of the Day series, which pulls the visitors within six points of the 61-39-18 season mark by home teams.