Down the Frozen River

Tag: NHL

  • Capitals extend regular season win streak versus Boston with 4-2 victory

    Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Washington Capitals beat the Boston Bruins in a regular season game.

    Thursday night at TD Garden, the Capitals ended Boston’s five-game winning streak with a 4-2 victory on the road as Nicklas Backstrom scored the game-winning goal in the third period prior to Alex Ovechkin adding the insurance goal (his second of the night) with the Bruins net empty as time ticked away in regulation.

    Braden Holtby (17-10-2 record, 2.86 goals against average, .912 save percentage in 30 games played) stopped 39 out of 41 shots faced for a .951 SV% in the win for Washington and improved to 16-2 in 18 career games against Boston.

    B’s netminder, Jaroslav Halak (13-7-2, 2.39 GAA, .924 SV% in 24 GP), made 18 saves on 21 shots against for an .857 SV% in the loss.

    The Bruins are now 0-11-3 in their last 14 regular season games against Washington.

    Boston falls to 25-15-4 (54 points) on the season and remains in 3rd place in the Atlantic Division standings, while the Capitals improved to 27-12-4 (58 points) so far this season and remain in 1st place in the Metropolitan Division standings.

    Bruins head coach, Bruce Cassidy, made no changes to his lineup, save for Halak getting the start over Tuukka Rask, based on the logic Cassidy used against the Anaheim Ducks last month (starting Halak in goal against a team the Bruins haven’t beaten in a while).

    It worked against the Ducks. It didn’t against the Caps.

    The moral of the story is it’s not the goaltender. It’s the overall effort of the team.

    Boston’s scratches on Thursday night included Colby Cave and Steven Kampfer as healthy scratches, as well as Joakim Nordstrom (non-displaced fibula fracture) and Charlie McAvoy (lower body).

    Cassidy indicated McAvoy could be back in the lineup on Saturday in Toronto, earlier in the day on Thursday.

    Jonas Siegenthaler was guilty of holding Bruins forward, Brad Marchand, at 1:51 of the first period and was sent to the penalty box, resulting in Boston’s first power play of the night.

    The Bruins did not convert on the skater advantage and the Caps swung momentum in their favor.

    Jakub Vrana (15) entered the attacking zone on a breakaway resulting from T.J. Oshie‘s lead pass, which Vrana used to springboard himself in on a defenseless Halak, sniping the puck past Boston’s goaltender and giving Washington the lead, 1-0, at 6:38 of the first period.

    Oshie (6) had the only assist on the goal.

    Late in the opening frame, Marchand drew another penalty, this time when Michal Kempny tripped up the Bruins winger at 14:13.

    The Capitals entered the dressing room for the first intermission with the lead, 1-0, while being outshot by Boston, 17-5. The Caps also led in blocked shots (8-2), giveaways (7-1) and hits (10-5), while the Bruins led in takeaways (4-3) and face-off win percentage (53-47).

    Washington had yet to see any time on the power play after one period, but Boston was already 0/2 on the skater advantage heading into the middle frame.

    Early in the second period, Patrice Bergeron tripped Vrana and gave Washington their first power play of the night at 5:10.

    Shortly after their power play expired, Lars Eller received a two-minute minor infraction for unsportsmanlike conduct directed towards Marchand at 7:43 of the second period and the Bruins went on the power play for the third time Thursday evening.

    Boston did not yield a goal on the skater advantage and shortly followed up with a penalty of their own as Brandon Carlo was penalized for tripping Ovechkin at 10:57.

    The Bruins managed to kill off Carlo’s minor and surged enough in momentum to generate some zone time over the course of the vulnerable minute after Washington’s power play ended.

    Torey Krug sent a pass to Ryan Donato as Donato was out high on his own from about the face-off circle to the left of Holtby.

    The rookie Bruins winger settled the puck and fired his patented wrist shot past the Capitals goaltender to tie the game, 1-1, at 14:11 of the second period.

    Krug (25) and Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson (4) had the assists on Donato’s (6) goal, which set a new career-high for No. 17 in black-and-gold.

    Less than a minute later, Ovechkin (31) found his revenge on the scoreboard as he sent a shot from close range past Halak’s short side as Tom Wilson found Ovechkin in the face-off circle to the right of the Bruins goalie.

    Wilson (9) had the only assist on Ovechkin’s goal at 14:50 and the Caps led, 2-1.

    In the dying seconds of the middle frame, former Bruin, Brett Connolly received a minor penalty for holding Krug at 19:52.

    Boston’s ensuing power play would carry on into the third period, with the Capitals still in command of the scoreboard, 2-1, after 40 minutes of play.

    The B’s led in shots on goal, 28-12, after two periods– outshooting Washington, 11-7, in the second period alone.

    Washington led in blocked shots (13-7), giveaways (10-5) and hits (24-17) through two periods of action, while Boston led in takeaways (11-5) and face-off win% (62-38).

    Entering the second intermission, the Capitals were 0/2 on the power play and the Bruins were 0/4.

    After a bungled line change cost Washington a too many men on the ice bench minor at 3:58 of the third period, Capitals head coach sent Ovechkin to serve the penalty.

    While Ovechkin was in the box, David Krejci (8) was scoring goals– a power play goal, blasted from the outer edge of the face-off circle to Holtby’s left, tying the game, 2-2, at 4:37 of the third.

    Danton Heinen (7) and David Backes (8) notched the assists on Krejci’s goal and the Bruins looked like they might have enough confidence to get over their regular season slump against the Capitals, but Washington had other things in mind.

    Backstrom (11) scored the game-winning goal, high, glove-side past Halak with a wrong-footed wrist shot at 5:46– just over a minute after Krejci tied the game for Boston.

    Oshie (7) and Siegenthaler (4) had the assists on Backstrom’s goal as the Capitals took the lead, 3-2, in the final frame.

    Down by a goal with about 1:39 remaining on the clock, Cassidy pulled Halak for an extra skater, but four seconds later, Ovechkin (32) cleared the puck from his own zone into the empty net in Boston’s defensive end.

    Ovechkin’s goal put the game away, 4-2, and was unassisted at 18:25. It was his second goal of the night and his 128th career two-goal game, as a result.

    Halak vacated the net once more about 20 seconds later, but it was too little, too late, as the final horn sounded and the Capitals secured the win in Boston.

    The Bruins finished the night leading in shots on goal (41-22) and face-off win% (66-34), but Washington dominated the scoreboard, 4-2, and led in blocked shots (18-7), giveaways (14-6), as well as hits (32-25).

    The Caps went 0/2 on the power play, while the B’s finished 1/5 on the skater advantage.

    Boston travels to Toronto to face the Maple Leafs this Saturday night before heading back home for a matchup with the Montreal Canadiens on Monday.

    The Bruins then hit the road for the start of two games in two nights, starting with a Wednesday night game in Philadelphia against the Flyers before venturing back home to host the St. Louis Blues next Thursday. The B’s host the New York Rangers next Saturday (Jan. 19th) in their last game before the All-Star break.


  • Boston Bruins 2018-19 Forecast Through 40 Games

    In keeping with true fashion to cranking out these forecasts this season, once again I am a couple of games behind in terms of timeliness.

    Nonetheless, the last few games don’t matter– they’re not taken into account for this latest forecast, but they are taken into consideration for future performance as a whole over the remaining “42” games at the time these projections were forecasted.

    Halfway through the season, the Boston Bruins find themselves in 3rd place in the Atlantic Division standings. Despite all the injuries, despite the lack of depth scoring and despite all other areas of regression, the B’s are holding their own weight in a competitive division.

    Bruce Cassidy‘s coaching style and compete level is something to be praised as they’ve weathered the storm, but now the question remains– can they take it to the next level?

    General Manager, Don Sweeney, probably could opt for a scoring winger before the team goes down the stretch and into the playoffs, where, last year’s depth scoring dried up thanks, in part, due to a gamble that didn’t pay off in acquiring Rick Nash to help provide a spark on the second line.

    This season’s team is righting the ship, but are they peaking too early? When will they peak if they aren’t starting to peak now?

    Doubt will always enter the mind. True professionals ignore it and achieve.

    Anyway, to avoid getting too much into coaching philosophy or whatever, let’s take a look at the most recent forecast for Boston and remember there are many variables that can and will change things. Being injured, called up, assigned, scratched, traded, lucky or unlucky will incur damage to the expected stats.

    Unpredictable variables happen. Microsoft Excel knows none of that.

    As always, my degree is in communication– not math. This forecast is just an utopian outlook for the Bruins if every player met expectations.

    Should they do better, then they will have exceeded expectations. If they fall short, then they were injured, out of the lineup or whatever– they didn’t meet expectations and next season’s numbers will reflect a new benchmark for meeting expectations.

    The nature of hockey is both contextually analytical and holistically unpredictable– nothing can account for sheer puck luck or the odd puck bounce, but whatever’s on the scoresheet every night can indicate general trends and be utilized for educated guesses.


    Boston Bruins Forecast Through 40 Games (42 Games Remaining)

    (Just click on the image if you’re having trouble seeing it– WordPress changed their layout so there’s no more slideshow options.)

    Boston’s expected leaders in points indicates an 80-point season for David Pastrnak for the second season in-a-row– and not only that, but a career-high in goals and points.

    Pastrnak is forecasted to lead the Bruins with 39 goals and 43 assists (82 points) with linemate Patrice Bergeron (26-41–67 forecasted totals) expected to be second in the club’s scoring.

    Second line center, David Krejci (15-45–60 expected totals) is bound to be third in Bruins scoring this season with Jake DeBrusk emerging from the haze of injury and a slow start to his sophomore season.

    While Pastrnak is destined to lead his club in goals with 39 in the latest forecast, it appears he’ll be the only Bruin to reach the 30-goal plateau this season, as Brad Marchand is currently forecasted to end up with 27 goals this season.

    Marchand has reached 30-goals for the last three consecutive seasons and the 20-goal plateau in seven out of his eight full seasons he’s played since 2010-11.

    Should he reach 20 goals as expected this season, he’ll extend his scoring prowess to eight out of his nine seasons in the NHL.

    Bergeron’s expected to follow suit with his teammates on what is one of the best lines in the league, ranking third in goals by season’s end with 26, despite missing 16 games due to a rib/sternoclavicular injury.

    In assists, Marchand has emerged as much of a playmaker as he is a natural scorer with the current expectation of 47 assists this season, leading his teammates, Krejci (45 expected assists) and Pastrnak (43 expected assists).

    Marchand set a career-high in assists with 51 last season and is on pace to reach at least 40 assists for the third consecutive season.

    Noted playmaker and usual assist leading suspect, Krejci’s 45 assists would be his best since he had 46 assists in 72 games during 2015-16. Of note, Krejci has not missed a game so far this season.

    Fellow Czech native, Pastrnak is the only other player to have appeared in every game so far.

    On defense, Torey Krug remains supreme with 10-40–50 expected totals, despite missing 11 games thus far. Another 50 points this season would be the third consecutive season of reaching the 50-point plateau for Krug.

    He matched his career-high in goals (14) and set a new career-high in assists (45) last season en route to a career-high 59-point year in 76 games played.

    It’s very likely Krug may exceed expectations, so long as he’s healthy.

    Young stallion, Charlie McAvoy is still on pace for breaking the 30-point benchmark this season, despite missing 23 games through this forecast due to a couple of injuries (namely, a concussion and a lower body injury after blocking a shot).

    While McAvoy’s health may be worrisome this season, Matt Grzelcyk has stepped into more minutes with the expectations of a career-year with 3-19–22 forecasted totals.

    John Moore and Zdeno Chara are both expected to reach 15 points with Kevan Miller adding another 12 from the blue line this season.

    In goal, Boston has seen some stellar action from Jaroslav Halak— though recently he has been trending in the other direction, Tuukka Rask has picked up his pace of play back to where it’s expected night-in and night-out.

    Halak is on pace for a 2.42 goals against average, despite his 2.28 GAA in 22 games played as of this forecast. Still, a 2.42 GAA would be equivalent to his 2.43 GAA in 59 GP in 2014-15 with the New York Islanders.

    His workload shouldn’t reach nearly 60 games this season, so there’s still hope he exceeds expectations and keeps his GAA low, while increasing his expected save percentage.

    Currently, Halak is forecasted to finish the 2018-19 regular season with a .920 SV%– his highest since attaining a .920 SV% in 52 games in 2013-14 for the Islanders. He had a .919 SV% in 36 games with New York in 2015-16.

    Whether Halak will regress back to his usual form remains to fully be seen.

    As has been since Halak’s stellar performances early in the season outplayed Tuukka Rask, Cassidy will have to manage both of his goaltender’s time in the crease– keeping each fresh enough to remain hot and rested for a playoff stretch.

    Rask, in the meantime, is currently forecasted to reach a 2.38 GAA, which would be the second consecutive season of a slightly worse goals against average since he had a 2.23 in 65 games played in 2016-17 (he had a 2.36 GAA in 54 GP last season).

    However, a 2.38 GAA is still respectable, considering his 2.63 GAA in 20 appearances through Boston’s first 40 games this season.

    Boston’s usual starting goaltender is on track for a .919 SV%, which would be Rask’s highest since amassing a .922 SV% in 70 games played in 2014-15– a season in which he was drastically overworked.

    Rask’s career-high .931 SV% came in 2009-10, when he had stolen the starting job from Tim Thomas and played in 45 games.

    He’s also had back-to-back seasons at .929 in 23 games in 2011-12 (while serving as Thomas’ backup) and in 36 games in 2012-13 (during the 48-game lockout-shortened season, in which Rask backstopped Boston to their 2013 Stanley Cup Final appearance).

    Anything at or above .920 in terms of save percentage is usually widely praised. A .919 SV% is not that far off and might actually be more reflective of the increased offense league-wide, but that’s something to research on a different day.

    Regardless, two goaltenders around .920 in save percentage and close to a 2.30 goals against average isn’t a bad thing to have. That’s what some might refer to as an effective “1A/1B” scenario.

    Now fight it out in the comments over who is “1A” and who is “1B” in this case.

  • Bruins score wild goals in 4-0 win over Minnesota

    Don’t look now, but the Boston Bruins are on a five-game winning streak after shutting out the Minnesota Wild, 4-0, Tuesday night at TD Garden. The Bruins haven’t lost since Dec. 29th’s, 3-2, comeback win in overtime against the Sabres in Buffalo.

    Boston improved to 15-3-2 when scoring first this season, as Danton Heinen recorded the game’s first goal. Brad Marchand, Jake DeBrusk and Patrice Bergeron each added goals of their own in the Bruins’ win.

    Tuukka Rask (12-8-2 record, 2.43 goals against average, .920 save percentage in 22 games played) made 24 saves on 24 shots against for the win and his first shutout of the season.

    Rask’s last shutout came on March 17, 2018 against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Tuesday night’s shutout was the 42nd of his career.

    Alex Stalock (5-4-0, 2.75 GAA, .894 SV% in 11 GP) stopped 23 out of 27 shots faced for an .852 SV% in the loss for the Wild.

    The B’s improved to 25-14-4 (54 points) on the season and remain 3rd in the Atlantic Division– two points behind the Toronto Maple Leafs for 2nd place and two points ahead of the 4th place Sabres.

    Minnesota fell to 21-18-3 (45 points) and remained 5th place in the Central Division.

    Bruce Cassidy left his lines alone for Boston with Joakim Nordstrom (non-displaced fibular fracture) and Charlie McAvoy (lower body) still out of the lineup due to injury and Colby Cave, as well as Steven Kampfer, as the only healthy scratches Tuesday.

    Heinen (5) notched the game’s first goal early in the first period after Torey Krug went d-to-d with a pass across the point to John Moore.

    Moore fired a shot that Heinen tipped in past Stalock at 5:23 to give Boston the, 1-0, lead with Moore (6) and Krug (23) tallying the assists.

    Moments later, Bruins captain, Zdeno Chara, cut a rut to the penalty box after being penalized for interference, having bumped into Minnesota’s Jordan Greenway without the puck at 7:00 of the first period.

    The Bruins successfully killed off Chara’s minor infraction and momentum further swung to their side as almost a few minutes after the Wild’s power play failed, Marchand was in the right place at the right time.

    Moore worked the puck over to Bergeron, who then fired a shot that went wide of the goal and caromed off the end-boards to Marchand as No. 63 in black-and-gold crashed the net.

    Marchand (16) put home the rebound as Stalock was moving a step behind across the crease, giving Moore his first two-point game in a Bruins uniform.

    Bergeron (23) and Moore (7) were credited with the assists at 11:29.

    Late in the opening frame, the B’s and Wild swapped minor penalties with Kevan Miller going to the box first for holding Nino Niederreiter at 16:16, then Minnesota’s Eric Staal following up with a tripping minor against Rask at 17:42.

    After an abbreviated 4-on-4 sequence, the Bruins went on an abbreviated power play that yielded their third goal of the period and first of two power play goals on the night.

    Bergeron fired a shot towards the goal that deflected off of DeBrusk’s (14) chest and went past Stalock to give Boston a three-goal lead.

    Bergeron (24) and Marchand (30) had the assists on DeBrusk’s goal at 19:15 of the first period and the B’s led, 3-0.

    DeBrusk has four goals and one assist (five points) in his six games since returning from concussion-like symptoms.

    Entering the first intermission, Boston was ahead by three goals and led in shots on goal, 15-6. Minnesota led in blocked shots (4-1), giveaways (5-2) and hits (13-9) after 20 minutes, while the Bruins led in face-off win percentage (67-33).

    Both teams had two takeaways each through one period as the Wild went 0/2 on the power play and the B’s went 1/1.

    Early in the second period, Zach Parise tripped Bergeron just past the six-minute mark of the middle frame and the Bruins went back on the power play.

    Less than 20 seconds later, Bergeron (14) got his revenge on the scoreboard, redirecting a shot past Stalock for the power play goal at 6:24 of the second period.

    Marchand (31) and Krug (24) had the assists on Bergeron’s goal and the Bruins led, 4-0.

    Almost midway through the second period, with the pace in play rather deflated, Moore was charged with interference against Luke Kunin, resulting in the Wild’s final power play of the night and last chance to muster anything resembling the commencement of a comeback.

    Minnesota did not convert on the ensuing skater advantage.

    Through 40 minutes of play at TD Garden, the Bruins led, 4-0, on the scoreboard and, 20-18, in shots on goal. Minnesota actually outshot Boston, 12-5, in the second period alone, but the Wild couldn’t get past the brick wall of Rask in Boston’s crease.

    The B’s led in blocked shots (13-5) and face-off win% (59-41) after two periods. Minnesota led in takeaways (6-3), giveaways (8-5) and hits (23-16), while finishing the night 0/3 on the power play.

    The Bruins went 2/2 on the skater advantage Tuesday night.

    There were no penalties and there was no scoring in the third period from either club as the Bruins secured the, 4-0, victory and finished the night leading in shots on goal (27-24), blocked shots (18-9), giveaways (12-11) and face-off win% (54-46).

    The Wild finished the night leading in hits (28-21).

    Boston hosts the Washington Capitals this Thursday night at the Garden before traveling to Scotiabank Arena for a battle with the Toronto Maple Leafs on Sunday night.

    The Bruins return home for a Monday night (Jan. 14th) rivalry matchup with the Montreal Canadiens, before traveling to Philadelphia for the first of back-to-back games on the road at Wells Fargo Center against the Flyers next Wednesday (Jan. 16th) and at home against the St. Louis Blues next Thursday (Jan. 17th).

    They’ll play one more game after that against the New York Rangers at home next Saturday (Jan. 19th) before the All-Star break and bye week begins for Boston.

  • DTFR Podcast #139- They Ran Out Of Beer!

    DTFR Podcast #139- They Ran Out Of Beer!

    A bunch of minor trades were made in the last week, the 2019 Honda NHL All-Star Game rosters were released, as well as the 2019-20 outdoor game schedule. Nick and Connor also discuss the legacy that was the 2019 Bridgestone NHL Winter Classic and the 2019 IIHF World Junior Quarterfinal upsets.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

    *Editor’s Note: Of course, after recording this week’s episode, the Philadelphia Flyers claimed G Mike McKenna off waivers from the Vancouver Canucks.

  • B’s oust Flames, 6-4, on Thursday

    Jake DeBrusk had the defacto game-winning goal in the third period for the Boston Bruins, as DeBrusk and Brad Marchand each scored two goals in Boston’s, 6-4, win over the Calgary Flames at TD Garden on Thursday.

    Jaroslav Halak (13-6-2 record, 2.36 goals against average, .926 save percentage in 23 games played) made 33 saves on 37 shots against for an .892 SV% in the win for the Bruins.

    Mike Smith (12-9-1, 3.09 GAA, .886 SV% in 23 GP) turned aside 21 shots on 26 shots faced for an .808 SV% in the loss for the Flames.

    As a result of the win, Boston improved to 23-14-4 on the season (50 points) and remained 3rd in the Atlantic Division, while Calgary fell to 25-13-4 (54 points) on the season.

    The Flames held onto 1st place in the Pacific Division despite the loss, but with a two-point lead over the Vegas Golden Knights.

    Boston head coach, Bruce Cassidy, updated reporters earlier in the day on Thursday on the status of Charlie McAvoy and Joakim Nordstrom.

    Cassidy ruled McAvoy out of the lineup for Thursday night and unlikely to play Saturday, while indicating the sophomore blue liner is aiming for a return to the lineup next week– either Tuesday or Thursday.

    Nordstrom, in the meantime, will be out for at least three weeks with a non-displaced fibula fracture sustained in Tuesday’s Winter Classic against the Chicago Blackhawks. He will be re-evaluated at that time.

    Cassidy also congratulated David Krejci and his wife, Naomi, on the birth of their son Thursday morning. The Krejci family welcomed their second child as they previously had a daughter in 2015.

    And in other news, Kevan Miller played in his 300th career NHL game Thursday night.

    David Backes served the third and final game of his three-game suspension from the penalty box, while Steven Kampfer was the only healthy scratch for Boston.

    Michael Frolik tripped Krejci early in the first period at 5:39 and sent the Bruins on their first power play of the night, which quickly became a 5-on-3 advantage when Elias Lindholm caught Brad Marchand with a high-stick at 5:44.

    As Frolik was fresh out of the box, Mark Jankowski found the Flames forward for a shorthanded opportunity.

    Frolik (9) made no mistake and capitalized on the lack of a defensive effort from the Bruins with Calgary’– league-leading– 13th shorthanded goal this season to give the Flames a 1-0 lead at 7:46 of the opening frame.

    Jankowski (11) had the only assist on the ninth shorthanded goal allowed by Boston this season (which also is league-leading in all the wrong ways).

    Late in the power play, the Bruins worked the puck back to John Moore (2) as he blasted one past Smith to tie the game, 1-1, at 9:02.

    Matt Grzelcyk (11) and Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson (3) notched the assists on Moore’s goal as the two teams scored 1:16 apart from each other.

    Late in the first period, Jake DeBrusk (12) tipped in a shot from the point by Krejci to make it, 2-1, Boston at 14:19. Krejci (25) and Ryan Donato (3) had the assists on DeBrusk’s goal.

    After one period of play, the B’s led the Flames, 2-1, on the scoreboard and trailed Calgary, 11-9, in shots on goal. The Flames also led in blocked shots (10-6), giveaways (8-4) and face-off win percentage (63-38) through 20 minutes, while the Bruins led in takeaways (5-3) and hits (11-10).

    Calgary had yet to see time on the power play, while Boston was 1/3 entering the first intermission.

    Just over a minute into the second period, Lindholm (20) tied the game, 2-2, having followed up on a rebound generated by Johnny Gaudreau.

    Boston used their coach’s challenge on the basis that there was goaltender interference, but after review, the call on the ice still stood as Lindholm had tapped the puck in with his stick without any contact with Halak after Gaudreau’s initial shot.

    Gaudreau (38) and Noah Hanifin (17) had the assists at 1:05 of the second period.

    Less than a minute later, while in the attacking zone, Patrice Bergeron sent a pass back to the point where Torey Krug one-timed a slap pass to Marchand (14) in front of the goal for the redirection from point blank.

    Marchand’s goal put Boston ahead, 3-2, at 1:41 of the second frame and was assisted by Krug (21) and Bergeron (21).

    Zdeno Chara took a minor penalty for cross checking Austin Czarnik at 7:09, which the Bruins killed off, then followed up with a high-sticking infraction from DeBrusk at 10:13.

    While on the penalty kill, the Bruins allowed a 3-on-0 opportunity for the Flames and were penalized for too many men on the ice at 11:31.

    Boston killed off the ensuing 5-on-3 disadvantage.

    Late in the period, the two clubs swapped minor penalties as Marchand went to the box for cross checking at 18:39 and Lindholm was sent to the visiting sin bin for interference at 19:53.

    Both teams went into the dressing room tied, 2-2, after two periods, with the Flames leading in shots on goal, 21-20.

    Calgary also led in takeaways (9-7), giveaways (14-12) and face-off win% (58-42) through 40 minutes with Boston leading in hits (20-16). Both teams had 11 blocked shots aside, while the Flames were 0/4 on the power play and the B’s were 1/3.

    Less than a minute into the third period, Pastrnak chased down a puck that Krug had indirectly slap passed off the end boards from about 160 feet away.

    No. 88 in black-and-gold then deked and beat Smith to make it, 4-2, for Boston just 54 seconds into the final frame. Krug (22) and Halak (3) had the assists on the goal.

    Halak’s three assists this season are the most by a Bruins goaltender since Tim Thomas had three assists in the 2010-11 season.

    About midway through the third period, Gaudreau (23) scored from below the goal line– banking the puck off of Halak and in to bring the Flames to within one and make it, 4-3, at 9:27 of the third.

    Sean Monahan (29) and Hanifin (18) had the assists on Gaudreau’s goal.

    Keeping with the trend of the night, the teams kept swapping goals as DeBrusk (13) added his second goal of the game on a backhand from close range after rushing into the attacking zone with the puck.

    Krejci (26) had the assist on DeBrusk’s goal at 13:46 of the third period and the Bruins led, 5-3.

    Moments later, Mikael Backlund (9) made it a one-goal game again with a backhand shot of his own that sailed over the glove side of Halak and into the twine to make it, 5-4.

    Mark Giordano (33) and Rasmus Andersson (3) notched the assists at 16:27.

    Flames head coach, Bill Peters, pulled Smith for an extra attacker with about 1:54 remaining in regulation. Shortly thereafter, Marchand (15) put the game away with an empty net goal to make it, 6-4, for the Bruins at 18:10.

    Pastrnak (27) and Bergeron (22) had the assists on Marchand’s second goal of the game as the B’s scored six or more goals for just the fourth time this season.

    At the final horn, Boston secured the win, despite trailing in shots on goal, 37-27, to the Flames.

    The Bruins finished the night leading in blocked shots (16-13) and hits (27-22), while Calgary wrapped up Thursday night’s action with the lead in giveaways (20-16) and face-off win% (60-40).

    The Flames finished the night 0/4 on the skater advantage, while the B’s went 2/4 on the power play.

    Pastrnak now has 6-16–22 totals in his last 14 games and was the only Bruin named to the 2019 Honda NHL All-Star Game in San Jose for the Atlantic Division.

    Bruins fans can vote for a “Last Man In” representative in each division, with Boston’s “Last Man In” candidate being Bergeron.

    The B’s take on the Buffalo Sabres on Saturday before staying at home for the Minnesota Wild next Tuesday (Jan. 8th) and the defending Stanley Cup champion, Washington Capitals, next Thursday (Jan. 10th).

    Upon the conclusion of the current four-game homestand, Boston travels to Scotiabank Arena for a matchup with the Toronto Maple Leafs next Saturday (Jan. 12th).

  • Numbers Game: 2018-19 League Forecast Entering January

    Happy New Year!

    It’s time to figure out whether or not your team has a legitimate chance of winning the Stanley Cup, making the playoffs, being a seller at the trade deadline or a basement dwelling rebuilder in desperate need of anything but what is happening right now.

    Teams have begun to reach the official halfway point in the regular season (41 games played out of an 82-game schedule) as the calendar flips from 2018 to 2019.

    Here’s a glance at the latest forecast based on how the league standings were through December 31, 2018.

    Keeping in mind, there’s no guarantees with any forecast, but rather general trends and “educated” guesses. It’s not always about the exact number of points expected on the season. Sometimes the focus is on the spread or each team’s positioning in the standings.

    There’s always context. Plus, nothing’s impossible until it’s mathematically impossible.

    So let’s take a look around the league and figure out the future– well, rest of this season, at least.

    Projected Standings After Three Months

    Eastern Conference

    Atlantic Division

    1. p-Tampa Bay Lightning, 125 points (40 GP entering Jan. 1st)
    2. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 111 points (39 GP)
    3. x-Boston Bruins, 98 points (39 GP)
    4. wc2-Montreal Canadiens, 97 points (40 GP)
    5. Buffalo Sabres, 96 points (40 GP)
    6. Florida Panthers, 84 points (38 GP)
    7. Detroit Red Wings, 75 points (41 GP)
    8. Ottawa Senators, 72 points (40 GP)

    The Tampa Bay Lightning are the dominant team in the NHL right now. There’s no other comparison. They’re in a league of their own.

    Though the Toronto Maple Leafs have surged into one of the league’s most prominent teams this season, they’re no match for the Lightning in the regular season standings Atlantic Division race.

    The postseason might be another story– too bad we won’t get to see these teams meet up in the Eastern Conference Final with the current playoff format.

    For the Boston Bruins, a lackluster 7-7-0 month of December has taken a toll on their outlook. Sure, winning five out of their last seven games is a good sign and all, but missed opportunities and blown chances regardless of the injury status of many of their players this season has brought them back to Earth this season.

    Regression in hockey, however, is to be expected– even for teams that outperformed expectations. Last season was just that– exceeded expectations in the regular season for Boston.

    How will Bruce Cassidy jumpstart scoring depth throughout his lineup if General Manager Don Sweeney doesn’t do anything to add? Time will tell.

    But they’re running out of time as long as Claude Julien and Phil Housley are in consideration for some Jack Adams Award nominations.

    Though the Buffalo Sabres have slumped a bit in the last month, the Montreal Canadiens have solidified themselves as a potential spoiler in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

    If it’s not them, it’s definitely Buffalo for sure.

    The race for the Eastern Conference wild card spots should come down to three teams– Buffalo, Montreal and the New York Islanders (unless the Islanders snag a divisional spot in the Metropolitan Divsion– more on that later).

    Look, as good as some players on the Florida Panthers are, it’s not happening this year.

    And for all the hype regarding the Detroit Red Wings early in the season? Yeah, it’s the same as last year. They’re not doing so hot either.

    There’s some good news if you’re an Ottawa Senators fan– wait, they traded their 2019 1st round pick in the draft to the Colorado Avalanche as part of the three-team Matt Duchene trade and didn’t protect it (because they chose to protect 2018’s 1st round pick and offer up 2019’s instead)? Oh. Never mind.

    Metropolitan Division

    1. y-Washington Capitals, 109 points (38 GP)
    2. x-Pittsburgh Penguins, 103 points (39 GP)
    3. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 102 points (39 GP)
    4. wc1-New York Islanders, 98 points (38 GP)
    5. New York Rangers, 90 points (38 GP)
    6. Carolina Hurricanes, 80 points (38 GP)
    7. New Jersey Devils, 80 points (38 GP)
    8. Philadelphia Flyers, 78 points (38 GP)

    As we get closer to “the stretch” things are heating up in the Metropolitan Division, which might not be as full of garbage as once thought earlier in the year.

    For now, the Washington Capitals appear to be in a serious “defend the castle” mood. They’re the defending champions and they’re pretty hard to beat.

    But the Pittsburgh Penguins are surging. The Pens are on a seven-game winning streak and they’re outscoring their opponents, 28-9, during that span.

    What’s necessary to take into account in the divisional spots in the Metropolitan Division is not that the Capitals should lead the way, but rather, that Washington only has a six-point lead in the current forecast over the Penguins– and seven points over the Columbus Blue Jackets (who somehow find themselves in the “top dog” conversation?)– therefore, anything is up for grabs.

    If the Islanders don’t scratch and claw their way into a divisional spot, they’ll be a wild card team.

    It’s not a completely lost season for the New York Rangers, but it’s not one that’ll end with a playoff berth either.

    The same could almost be said for the Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils, except one’s a little more inconsistent (and worse off), while the other’s just worse.

    Sure, the Devils are nowhere to be found this season, but Mackenzie Blackwood could change that outlook next year.

    And if Carter Hart‘s ready to take on the full-time role of starting netminder for the Philadelphia Flyers that probably wouldn’t do much for them this season, but it’s promising moving forward.

    This year’s Flyers team just goes to show that the problem’s beyond a GM and coaching change, so don’t be surprised to see some roster turnover.

    Western Conference

    Central Division

    1. z-Winnipeg Jets, 107 points (39 GP)
    2. x-Nashville Predators, 96 points (40 GP)
    3. x-Colorado Avalanche, 91 points (40 GP)
    4. wc2-Dallas Stars, 89 points (40 GP)
    5. Minnesota Wild, 87 points (38 GP)
    6. St. Louis Blues, 81 points (37 GP)
    7. Chicago Blackhawks, 77 points (41 GP)

    The Winnipeg Jets are one of two teams in serious contention for the Western Conference regular season title– and the Nashville Predators won’t even get to raise a banner next season for it.

    Nashville’s been on shaky ground for the last month and, as a result, it shows in the latest forecast. Inadequacy ruptures standards or expectations.

    Anyway, between Winnipeg and the Calgary Flames one of those teams will be the best in the West at the end of the regular season.

    It says something as a whole about the Central Division when the Colorado Avalanche are currently forecasted to slip into a divisional spot in the postseason with 91 points in the standings.

    Usually about 95 points puts you within the wild card range and anything 98 or above brings you into serious contention for a divisional berth.

    What all of this means is there’s a lot of uncertainty from the Avs, Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild in terms of where they end up, ultimately.

    All three teams have been all over the place– at times– this season.

    Fear not, though, they’re nothing like the St. Louis Blues and Chicago Blackhawks. Nothing makes sense in St. Louis, short of obvious locker room problems and a lack of leadership.

    Whereas, in Chicago, the game plan was already reset to “longterm” last season by default (having finished last in the division). Jeremy Colliton‘s job security is safe for now.

    There weren’t high expectations coming into the season for the Blackhawks and there weren’t immediate expectations for Colliton in their transition from Joel Quenneville to their 33-year-old head coach.

    Essentially, firing Quenneville when they did was an easy way out of having to make things more awkward(?) with a rebuild, but it kind of was anyway given when they did it.

    At least they’re not their rivals in St. Louis– let alone the Los Angeles Kings– where expectations were high after reaping some rewards in the offseason.

    Pacific Division

    1. y-Calgary Flames, 103 points (40 GP)
    2. x-Vegas Golden Knights, 100 points (42 GP)
    3. x-San Jose Sharks, 98 points (41 GP)
    4. wc1-Anaheim Ducks, 92 points (41 GP)
    5. Vancouver Canucks, 83 points (42 GP)
    6. Edmonton Oilers, 82 points (39 GP)
    7. Arizona Coyotes, 76 points (39 GP)
    8. Los Angeles Kings, 75 points (40 GP)

    The Flames are red hot. Can they make 2019 more like 1989 and less like 2004? Does having a goaltender even matter any more?

    Luck’s starting to turn in Vegas as the Golden Knights have come alive and look to make a serious claim at potentially knocking Calgary off from the Pacific Division lead– if they can catch them first.

    Despite their ups and downs, the San Jose Sharks are still a divisional playoff berth kind of team. Expect them to be out of the playoffs before the Western Conference Final though. Surely Martin Jones‘ below average season has to catch up to him at some point, regardless of scoring power.

    With no real competition below them, the Anaheim Ducks are a wild card team that will likely continue to live in the First Round elimination hell until John Gibson single handedly plays every position for the club.

    The Vancouver Canucks have Elias Pettersson and look ready to bring up Thatcher Demko for a full-time role in net, so it’s kind of on, but a little late. Next season!

    Everyone said Ken Hitchcock would turn around the Edmonton Oilers and was dancing in the streets when his first half-dozen games brought the Oilers back into being relevant.

    Well, everyone, except me. Hitchcock’s shtick isn’t fit for the contemporary NHL anymore and his last (and only) Cup win came 20 years ago.

    Sure he might impart some lessons on leadership, but as long as Peter Chiarelli is trading away Drake Caggiula for Brandon Manning and ensuring guys like Milan Lucic are part of the longterm vision…

    The Arizona Coyotes haven’t panned out and it’s not the numbers that have been lying to them. Dylan Strome, their 3rd overall pick in 2015, didn’t develop as planned– whether through the fault of the Coyotes or not– and they traded him.

    That draft was four years ago and Mitch Marner was selected after Strome by the Maple Leafs. Hindsight is 20/20, but still.

    If it’s any consolation, Mikko Rantanen was selected by Colorado, 10th overall, so Carolina, New Jersey, Philly, Columbus and San Jose all missed out on one of the current leaders in scoring.

    Scouting’s not Arizona’s strong-suit from year-to-year, or rather, asset management as a whole it’s just… …not there.

    Finally, Los Angeles, the Grim Reaper’s at the door. Bring out your dead (Cup hopes and dreams for 2019). It’s time to rebuild.

  • Kuraly leaps Bruins over Blackhawks, 4-2, in 2019 Winter Classic

    Outlined against a grey-cloudy New Year’s Day sky, the Four Horsemen looked on with the Hockey Gods as the Boston Bruins defeated the Chicago Blackhawks, 4-2, at Notre Dame Stadium in the 2019 Bridgestone NHL Winter Classic.

    From now on in Bruins lore four names will replace Jim Crowley, Elmer Layden, Don Miller and Harry Stuhldreher with David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron, Sean Kuraly and Brad Marchand instead as all four contributed the necessary amount of goals to secure the victory in the home of the Fighting Irish– in the first non-football sports event at the stadium in its history.

    Kuraly’s game-winning goal came with 9:40 remaining in the third period and gave the Bruins their first lead of the afternoon, 3-2.

    Temperature at puck drop was a balmy 35.5 degrees Fahrenheit as Tuukka Rask (10-8-2 record, 2.63 goals against average, .914 save percentage in 20 games played) turned aside 36 out of 38 shots faced for a .947 SV% in the win for Boston.

    Chicago goalkeeper, Cam Ward (6-7-4, 3.85 GAA, .888 SV% in 18 GP), made 32 saves on 35 shots against for a .914 SV% in the Blackhawks loss.

    The Bruins improved to 2-1-0 in their all-time Winter Classic record, while the Blackhawks stumbled to 0-4-0 in the NHL’s New Year’s Day tradition.

    Boston also surpassed the Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres in the standings with the win, improving to 22-14-4 (48 points) on the season– good enough for 3rd place in the Atlantic Division standings.

    All three teams are in action Thursday night with the Bruins hosting the Calgary Flames, Buffalo hosting the Florida Panthers and Montreal hosting the Vancouver Canucks as the Atlantic Division playoff position battle rages on.

    The Blackhawks, in the meantime, fell to 15-21-6 (36 points) on the season and remain 6th in the Central Division– two points ahead of the last place in the division, St. Louis Blues– heading on the road to take on the New York Islanders on Thursday.

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    Tuesday’s Winter Classic was the 26th regular season outdoor game in league history, 6th outdoor game for Chicago (1-5-0) and 3rd outdoor game for Boston (2-1-0) overall.

    Prior to Tuesday’s Winter Classic, Bruins head coach, Bruce Cassidy confirmed Brad Marchand’s return to the lineup after missing Saturday’s action with an upper body injury, as well as Charlie McAvoy‘s status out of the lineup.

    McAvoy was placed on the injured reserve last Friday and may return to action in time for Thursday night’s matchup in Boston against the Calgary Flames at the earliest.

    With David Backes serving the 2nd game of his thee-game suspension, Cassidy juggled the lines past his usual first line trio of Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak.

    Cassidy’s second line featured Jake DeBrusk to the left of David Krejci and Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson on Krejci’s right side, with Danton Heinen, Sean Kuraly and Chris Wagner on the third line in addition to Joakim Nordstrom, Colby Cave and Noel Acciari rounding out the fourth line.

    Once again, Zdeno Chara and Brandon Carlo were paired together on the blue line, with Torey Krug playing alongside John Moore and Matt Grzelcyk with Kevan Miller.

    With Backes suspended and McAvoy out of the lineup due to a lower body injury, only Ryan Donato and Steven Kampfer took in the game from Notre Dame’s press box as Boston’s healthy scratches.

    Rask got the start in net for his second career appearance (previous, 2016 at Gillette Stadium, 5-1 loss to the Montreal Canadiens) in a Winter Classic game, as well as his 469th career game in a Bruins uniform– surpassing Cecil “Tiny” Thompson in franchise history for most games played as a goaltender.

    He was the backup goaltender to Tim Thomas‘ impressive win in net in the 2010 Winter Classic at Fenway Park.

    The atmosphere was palpable as the game got underway in front of a sellout crowd of 76,126 people in the 2nd most attended Winter Classic with a 1930s flair, as the visiting Bruins obtained the first penalty of the game early in the first period.

    Carlo was sent to the box with a holding infraction against Jonathan Toews at 5:52 and Chicago couldn’t capitalize on the resulting power play.

    In the vulnerable moment after the skater advantage, after forcing a turnover in the offensive zone, David Kampf helped slide the puck from Dylan Sikura to Brendan Perlini (5) for the 1-0 lead thanks to Perlini’s one-timed shot past Rask as the Bruins defensive coverage was nowhere to be seen.

    Krug had his stick lifted as Krejci was turning the puck over and Moore was out of position to the right of the net instead of attempting to thwart any chances through the slot.

    Kampf (10) and Sikura (3) had the assists on Perlini’s goal at 8:30 of the opening period.

    Thanks to Perlini’s goal, Chicago now has the game’s first goal in eight of their last ten games, despite the outcome of Tuesday afternoon’s matchup.

    Artem Anisimov tripped Nordstrom at 12:05 and sent the Bruins on their first power play of the day– yielding a power play goal just 23 seconds on the skater advantage.

    Bergeron worked the puck to Pastrnak (24) who then waited for Ward to make the first move as Pastrnak scored from point blank, tying the game, 1-1, at 12:38.

    An elated Pastrnak spread his wings as part of his celebration, while Bergeron (20) recorded the only assist on the goal.

    Pastrnak now has 11 power play goals this season and remains in the top-five in goals scored this season (tied with Jeff Skinner at 24 and trailing Alex Ovechkin, 29, and John Tavares, 26).

    Late in the opening frame, Grzelcyk was guilty of high-sticking Chicago’s Andreas Martinsen and served a two-minute minor in the penalty box at 17:03.

    The Blackhawks didn’t score on the ensuing power play.

    After 20 minutes of play, both teams were tied, 1-1. Boston led in shots on goal (14-12) and takeaways (6-2) after one period, while Chicago held onto an advantage in blocked shots (5-4), hits (11-10) and face-off win percentage (53-47).

    Both teams had five giveaways each entering the first intermission and the Blackhawks were 0/2 on the power play. The B’s were 1/1 after one.

    Early in the second period, Kuraly hooked Perlini and gave Chicago their third power play of the day. Once again, the Blackhawks were unable to score as the Bruins killed off Kuraly’s minor.

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    Midway through the period, Erik Gustafsson fired a shot from the point that was redirected by Dominik Kahun (5) past Rask and into the net, giving the ‘Hawks a 2-1 lead at 11:24 of the middle frame.

    Gustafsson (14) and Toews (20) had the assists on the goal for Chicago.

    Moments later, Gustafsson was penalized for roughing Nordstrom and the Bruins went on the power play for the second time of the afternoon at 17:57.

    Less than a minute into the power play, Bergeron (13) walked into the low slot without pressure and sent a backhand shot over Ward to tie the game, 2-2, at 18:48.

    Pastrnak (26) and Krug (20) had the assists on Bergeron’s goal.

    Just over a minute later– in the closing seconds of the second period– Grzelcyk hooked Patrick Kane at 19:50.

    Chicago’s ensuing power play would spill over into the third period as both teams went back into the dressing room for the second intermission, tied, 2-2.

    Through 40 minutes of play, Chicago was outshooting Boston, 21-20, and led in takeaways (8-7), hits (21-20), as well as face-off win% (56-44). The B’s led in blocked shots (14-8) and giveaways (9-7) heading into the third period.

    The Blackhawks went 0/4 on the power play and the Bruins were 2/2 through two periods.

    Getting off on the right foot while resuming play on the power play in the third period was not Chicago’s specialty as Kane caught Miller with a high-stick at 1:03.

    Less than a minute later, the 4-on-4 action became 4-on-3 when Anisimov tripped Miller at 1:42 of the third period.

    For nine seconds, Boston had a 4-on-3 power play, then an abbreviated 5-on-3, followed by a run-of-the-mill 5-on-4 power play. Despite the length and skater strength advantages, the Bruins did not convert on their extra skater opportunities early in the third.

    Moments later, Gustav Forsling hooked Kuraly and the B’s couldn’t get anything going on the ensuing power play at 4:56.

    Just past the midpoint of the third period, Kuraly (4) got his revenge on the scoreboard as a shot from the point bounced off Wagner and rebounded to No. 52 in black-and-gold before Kuraly tapped in a backhander into the open twine.

    The Dublin, Ohio native then did his trademark “Kura-leap” into the glass, having given Boston their first lead of the day, 3-2, at 10:20.

    Wagner (3) and Grzelcyk (10) had the primary and secondary assists on Kuraly’s goal.

    The fourth liner now has three goals in his last five games.

    With 1:38 remaining in regulation, Blackhawks head coach, Jeremy Colliton, pulled Ward for an extra attacker. About 36 seconds later, after Bruins defender, Kevan Miller sent the puck off glass and out, Colliton used his timeout to rally his troops for Chicago.

    Facing immense pressure on the heels of a big save and coverup from Rask, Cassidy used his timeout for Boston with 39.2 seconds left in regulation.

    Finally, after Krejci worked to clear the the defensive zone and was tripped up at the blue line, Marchand (13) took the loose puck down the ice and buried an empty net goal to seal the deal on Boston’s, 4-2, win at 19:27.

    Krejci (24) had the only assist on Marchand’s goal.

    At the final horn, the Bruins had won, 4-2, despite being outshot by the Blackhawks, 38-36. Boston finished the afternoon leading in blocked shots (19-13), giveaways (12-10) and hits (30-25), while Chicago finished the day leading in face-off win% (56-44).

    Entering Tuesday, the Blackhawks had five power play goals in their last three games. After Tuesday, the Blackhawks went 0/4 on the skater advantage in the Winter Classic and had five power play goals in their last four games.

    The B’s finished the afternoon 2/5 on the power play.

    Of note, Kuraly’s game-winning goal was his second straight game-winning goal as he had scored the overtime winning goal in Buffalo last Saturday.

    And Pastrnak’s 1-1–2 totals in Tuesday’s affair made him the 6th Bruins player since 1984-85 to require 40 or fewer games to reach the 50-point mark in a season (with the most recent being Marc Savard scoring 50 points in 39 games in 2006-07).

    Boston has now won five out of their last seven games.

    For the 12th time in 26 outdoor games, the team that won overcame a deficit en route to victory.

    The Bruins take on the Flames on Thursday back home at TD Garden, then play host to the Sabres on Saturday (Jan. 5th), the Minnesota Wild next Tuesday (Jan. 8th) and the Washington Capitals on Jan. 10th before hitting the road for a quick trip to face the Toronto Maple Leafs on Jan. 12th.

    Next year’s Winter Classic heads to the Cotton Bowl where the Dallas Stars will play host to an opponent that is to be determined by the Stars, NHL and NBC.

  • Vegas Golden Knights Forecast Through 40 Games

    It’s not the most recent forecast, since the Vegas Golden Knights played Game 41 of their 2018-19 regular season on Saturday against the Los Angeles Kings.

    Nevertheless, it’s time to take a quick check of the pulse of the Golden Knights– how their season has progressed so far and where it appears to be going from here.

    Thanks to some extenuating circumstances, perhaps Vegas fans will forgive me for not being able to get around to their quick forecasted glance after 20 games played this season.

    Why? Because it would’ve been pretty dismal and you don’t need that kind of negativity in your life.

    Although, now at the halfway mark (officially after the game against the Kings, technically unofficially as of this forecast), things have improved, but with a few concerns remaining.

    Nate Schmidt served his 20 game suspension for a performance enhancing drug and for the most part, Vegas’ blue line got the job done.

    The team’s record wasn’t desirable, but guys like Shea Theodore and Colin Miller continued to rise past expectations in their ability– even more so now that Schmidt is back and solidified the defensive zone for the Golden Knights.

    One thing that has plagued the team all season is subpar goaltending.

    Marc-Andre Fleury isn’t getting any younger and Malcolm Subban regressed quite a bit from his debut season as a backup netminder at the NHL level last season.

    Managing playing time in the crease is something to keep in mind and we’ll take a closer look in a minute.

    For now, Vegas stands in a divisional spot in the playoffs in the Pacific. Not nearly as dominant as last season, but keeping up with the legitimate(?) playoff contenders in an otherwise weaker division compared to the rest of the league.

    Without further ado, here’s a look at the remaining 42 games (now 41) on the season and what to expect from the latest forecast.

    Keep in mind, there are many variables that can and will change what goes down from now through the end of the regular season in April, like trades, injuries, general lineup changes, roster moves and anything else unbeknownst to the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet that generates this forecast.

    My degree is in communication– not math. It’s “not my fault”.

    If a player meets the forecasted stats, then they’ve met expectations. If they exceed their forecasted stats, then they’ve exceed expectations.

    And of course, if a player does not live up to the latest forecast, then something went awry (the player could’ve been injured, been unlucky or regressed– a.k.a. didn’t meet expectations).

    Puck luck cannot be predicted, but general trends and estimated gut feelings can indicate a sense of what’s to come based on the results of each and every scoresheet night-in and night-out.

    Vegas Golden Knights Forecast Through 40 Games (42 Games Remaining)

    (Just click on the image if you’re having trouble seeing it– WordPress changed their layout so there’s no more slideshow options.)

    Every set of blessings comes with a set of curses and this year, that rings truer more than ever before for the Golden Knights. Of course, it’s only their second season in franchise history, but it’s still true.

    William Karlsson (24-26–50 expected totals) is having a “down” year compared to last season’s breakout career-year of 43 goals and 35 assists (78 points). Reaching the 50-point plateau is still respectable, but doesn’t scream any guarantees of being on the first line should the postseason roll around.

    Head coach, Gerard Gallant, has enough top-six forward depth to play around with if Karlsson starts to head south, considering Alex Tuch‘s expected 22-28–50 totals, Paul Stastny‘s expected 14-22–36 totals and Max Pacioretty‘s expected 21-22–43 totals.

    Despite the ever-consistent qualities of Jonathan Marchessault (27-33–60 expected totals) and Reilly Smith (17-32–49 expected totals), this year’s Golden Knights team point spread is more spread out.

    As it is, while Marchessault should lead in goals (27), assists (30) and points (60) and Karlsson should be second in goals (24) and points (50), one would think Smith would be second or third in whatever stats Marchessault and Karlsson aren’t leading in.

    However, Tuch’s expected point outcome (50) is tied with Karlsson for the second-most points behind Marchessault and Tuch is expected to rank third on Vegas’ roster in goals behind Marchessault and Karlsson with Smith a distant 5th behind Pacioretty’s 21 expected goals this season.

    While the offense isn’t as impactful from the forwards, the blue line has really come into its own in Vegas.

    Shea Theodore’s expected 8-29–37 totals will be the best of his teammates and fellow defenders in a Golden Knights uniform, leading Colin Miller (5-27–32 expected totals) and Nick Holden (7-17–24 expected totals).

    Nick Holden. That’s right. Holden is ahead of Nate Schmidt (5-18–23 expected totals) in the latest forecast.

    But that speaks to Holden’s resiliency in his career and the chemistry Gallant has found in his pairing every night– coupled, of course, with the fact that Holden is seeing more time on the ice (in the literal “games played” sense) than he has the last couple of seasons with the New York Rangers and Boston Bruins.

    He is a durable top-four defender that’s still in his athletic prime and it is exactly that kind of depth that can take teams deep into a Stanley Cup Final run.

    In goal, Marc-Andre Fleury should land around a 2.61 goals against average and .911 save percentage in a season in which he has been overworked thus far.

    He will continue to be overworked unless Malcolm Subban regains his footing, Gallant argues for calling someone up from the Chicago Wolves (AHL) or Golden Knights General Manager George McPhee makes an acquisition for a suitable backup option if all else fails.

    Fleury has played in 35 of the 40 games up to this forecast. He’s since played in 35 out of the 41 games played by the club this season.

    Subban has played in six games and is 0-5-0 in that span. His expected outcomes are a 2.76 GAA and .907 SV%– both below average goaltending the backup role.

    Whereas if Vegas wanted to try Oscar Dansk or Maxime Lagace without the pressures of coming into the dressing room in an emergency recall situation– unlike last season– a little healthy competition for the backup role might nudge Subban in the right direction and take off some of Fleury’s workload.

    It’s not that Fleury can’t handle 50-plus games anymore as a starting goaltender, but rather, it’s just that he shouldn’t be relied on for about 85% of the games in the regular season as is his current going rate.

  • DTFR Podcast #138- 2019’s Already Going Down

    DTFR Podcast #138- 2019’s Already Going Down

    Nick and Connor recap and react to the 2019 IIHF World Junior Championship so far, review the latest suspensions and injuries, look to the future of the NHL in 2019 and beyond, discuss 2019 All-Star Game captains, Jake Guentzel’s new extension and Jim Lites’ quotes on Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

  • Blackwood picks up first win, Devils beat Bruins, 5-2

    With Cory Schneider out of the lineup due to an abdominal strain and Keith Kinkaid performing well below average thus far, the New Jersey Devils turned to Mackenzie Blackwood in goal for the time being and it’s beginning to pay off with a, 5-2, victory over the Boston Bruins Thursday night at TD Garden.

    The win was Blackwood’s first career NHL victory in just his fourth career appearance in the crease at the top level of professional hockey in the world.

    Blackwood (1-1-0 record, 2.16 goals against average, .939 save percentage in four games played) stopped 40 out of 42 shots faced for a .952 SV% in the win for the Devils.

    Jaroslav Halak (12-6-2, 2.28 GAA, .928 SV% in 22 GP) made 28 saves on 32 shots against for an .875 SV% in the loss for Boston.

    The Bruins fell to 20-14-4 (44 points) on the season and remain in 4th place in the Atlantic Division standings, while New Jersey improved to 13-16-7 (33 points), but stayed in 8th place in the Metropolitan.

    Prior to Thursday night’s action, B’s head coach, Bruce Cassidy indicated Jake DeBrusk, Zdeno Chara and Kevan Miller would all be making their returns to the lineup, while Charlie McAvoy would be out of the action against the Devils with a lower body injury sustained after blocking a shot last Sunday against the Carolina Hurricanes.

    McAvoy is considered day-to-day and there is no timetable for Saturday night’s matchup in Buffalo against the Sabres regarding his playing status.

    Cassidy reunited Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak on the first line, with Danton Heinen, David Krejci and DeBrusk rounding out the top-six forwards.

    Ryan Donato, Colby Cave and David Backes were kept together on the third line, with Joakim Nordstrom, Sean Kuraly and Chris Wagner serving as the fourth line.

    With the return of Chara on the blue line, the Bruins captain was paired with Matt Grzelcyk. Torey Krug and Brandon Carlo remained the second defensive pairing, as John Moore and Kevan Miller were reunited as the bottom pair.

    Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, Steven Kampfer and Noel Acciari joined McAvoy in the press box Thursday night as healthy scratches.

    Damon Severson (5) kicked things off 25 seconds into the action, giving the Devils a 1-0 lead after New Jersey won a face-off in their own zone, then quickly skated the puck up ice with little pressure.

    Andy Greene (8) and Travis Zajac (10) had the assists on Severson’s goal.

    Moments later, Stefan Noesen hooked Miller and sent Boston on the power play for this first time of the night at 4:15 of the first period.

    The Bruins did not convert on the ensuing skater advantage.

    About ten minutes later, Moore tripped Kyle Palmieri and gave the Devils their first power play of the evening.

    Palmieri (19) enacted his revenge on the scoreboard, capitalizing on a shot that went his way for the power play goal at 15:25 of the opening period.

    Will Butcher (10) and Dan Boyle (5) notched the assists on Palmieri’s goal and New Jersey led, 2-0.

    After one period, the Devils led, 2-0, on the scoreboard and, 12-10, in shots on goal. New Jersey also held the advantage in blocked shots (7-1), takeaways (6-3), hits (11-9) and face-off win percentage (53-47), while Boston led in giveaways (10-4).

    The Devils were 1/1 on the power play entering the first intermission, while the B’s were 0/1.

    Early in the second period, Cave tripped Greene, but New Jersey was unable to convert on the ensuing power play at 3:06 of the middle frame.

    Late in the second period, while pinching deep into the offensive zone, Moore sent a tape-to-tape pass to Wagner (4) to put the Bruins on the board and cut New Jersey’s lead in half, 2-1, at 15:07.

    Moore (5) and Heinen (6) had the primary and secondary assists on the goal.

    Greene followed up with a tripping infraction of his own late in the period, having taken down Krejci with his stick at 19:48. The ensuing skater advantage for the B’s would carry over into the third period, as the Devils went into the dressing room for the second intermission with the lead, 2-1.

    Boston rallied for a, 19-9, advantage in shots on goal in the second period, good enough to pull ahead, 29-21, in total shots on goal through 40 minutes.

    After two periods, New Jersey maintained the advantage in blocked shots (9-4), takeaways (14-4) and hits (23-16), while Boston led in giveaways (17-10) and face-off win% (51-49).

    The Devils were 1/2 on the power play after 40 minutes of play and the Bruins were 0/2.

    Early in the third period, Blake Coleman (10) blocked a shot from Krug, then went the length of the ice as Carlo tried to wrap his stick around him.

    While Carlo tried to tangle with Coleman, the New Jersey forward deked Halak out of his mind and scored on an individual effort made to look easy at 4:15 of the third.

    The Devils once again had a two-goal lead, 3-1.

    About a few minutes later, Miller tripped Miles Wood as Wood nearly slid the puck underneath Halak and into the twine. The Bruins successfully killed off Miller’s infraction.

    Past the midpoint of the final frame of regulation, Nico Hischier (10) received a pass from Wood as Wood broke free from Krug and elevated the puck past the Bruins netminder to make it, 4-1, New Jersey.

    Wood (6) and Noesen (4) tallied the assists on Hischier’s goal at 12:43.

    With about three minutes remaining in regulation, Cassidy pulled his netminder for an extra attacker.

    Despite Bergeron (12) notching a goal on a redirection from DeBrusk (his third assist of the season) to make it, 4-2, at 17:05– pulling Halak did not go as planned.

    Backes skated by Coleman and delivered a blow to the head at 18:00 and received a two-minute minor penalty for an illegal check to the head.

    While on the penalty kill in the final two minutes of regulation– and trailing by two goals– Cassidy pulled his goaltender again for an extra skater, though New Jersey was able to capitalize with an empty net power play goal at 19:12 thanks to Coleman (11).

    Hischier (15) and Greene (9) collected the assists on Coleman’s second goal of the night and the Devils held onto the 5-2 victory.

    Boston finished the night leading in shots on goal (42-33), giveaways (17-11) and face-off win% (56-44), while New Jersey led in blocked shots (19-4) and hits (28-20). The Devils went 2/4 on the power play, while the B’s went 0/2.

    The Bruins are now 6-7-0 in the month of December with one game remaining (this Saturday in Buffalo) before the dawn of the New Year (2019).

    The B’s take on the Sabres on the road this Saturday before traveling to Notre Dame Stadium for their New Year’s Day matchup with the Chicago Blackhawks in the 2019 Bridgestone NHL Winter Classic.