Down the Frozen River

Tag: National Hockey League

  • 2019-20 Pacific Division Outlook

    As the entire hockey world awaits training camp action next month, let’s make some (un)educated guesses about the upcoming season that will totally pan out because everything always goes as expected. (It doesn’t.)

    The projected standings below are only a forecast.

    They are based on recent indications– as well as the last few seasons of stats– and cannot account for variations in roster construction (a.k.a. trades and free agency moves).

    There’s a lot of variables that will turn the tables upside down, including transactions, injuries and otherwise. Anything can happen.

    As always, it’s more important to remember 1) the spread and 2) the positioning.

    Just how many points separate the projected division winner from the last wild card spot (the spread) and where a team is supposed to finish in the division standings (the position) can imply that things aren’t always what they seem.

    A team that’s projected to win it all still has to play an 82-game regular season, qualify for the playoffs and go on to amass 16 wins in the postseason.

    Projected Standings After ZERO Months

    Pacific Division

    1. y-Vegas Golden Knights, 101 points
    2. x-San Jose Sharks, 100 points
    3. x-Anaheim Ducks, 96 points
    4. wc1- Calgary Flames, 93 points
    5. Los Angeles Kings, 89 points
    6. Vancouver Canucks, 83 points
    7. Arizona Coyotes, 78 points
    8. Edmonton Oilers, 77 points

    Vegas Golden Knights: Pros and Cons

    Despite a colossal collapse in Game 7 of their First Round matchup with the San Jose Sharks this spring, the Golden Knights are ready for what could be another deep playoff run in 2020.

    A full season of Mark Stone– plus the rest of the original and supporting cast (Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith, Paul Stastny, Max Pacioretty, Marc-Andre Fleury, etc.)– should provide Vegas with enough scoring power, while Nate Schmidt anchors the defense with Shea Theodore, Brayden McNabb, Jon Merrill and adopted Vegas son, Deryk Engelland.

    Aside from working on the penalty kill and the peaceful transition of power from George McPhee to Kelly McCrimmon as General Manager of the organization (effective Sept. 1st), the Golden Knights have had a quiet offseason.

    Sure, they traded Colin Miller to the Buffalo Sabres which hurts their blue line depth in the event of injuries, but Vegas has a few notable prospects with the Chicago Wolves (AHL) in Jake Bischoff, Nic Hague and Jimmy Schudlt that should be ready for a taste of NHL action if necessary.

    Owner, Bill Foley, has his sights set on his original vision for the franchise– winning a Cup within the first three seasons of its existence.

    The only downside for the Golden Knights heading into the 2019-20 season? Goaltending.

    No, Fleury isn’t in decline from his status as one of the better goaltenders in the league, but his time in the crease has to be managed.

    Though he was limited to 46 games in 2017-18 due to injury, Fleury amassed a 29-13-4 record with a 2.24 goals against average and a .927 save percentage. Vegas’ backup goaltender, Malcolm Subban, managed a 13-4-2 record in 22 games played that season with a 2.68 GAA and a .910 SV% in his rookie season.

    Last season, Subban’s numbers took a turn for the worse.

    He had an 8-10-2 record in 21 games played with a 2.93 GAA and a .902 SV%– all while Fleury was forced to carry a heavier schedule load, seeing his stat line slip to a 2.51 GAA and a .913 SV% in the process, but improving his overall record to 35-21-5 in 61 games.

    Vegas added Garret Sparks, who carries a career GAA (3.09) and SV% (.898) that’s worst than Subban in six fewer games played over two full-time seasons as a backup (Sparks appeared in 37 games with Toronto, while Subban’s played in 43 with Vegas since 2017-18).

    Gerard Gallant can’t rely on a fallback plan if one of them doesn’t yield a significant turnaround at this point in their careers (because there isn’t one) and he also can’t overexert Fleury in the buildup to the postseason.

    This is why you can never have too many goaltenders in the system.

    How would the Golden Knights fail?

    If an Uber driver records their players complaining about their special teams play and/or said Uber driver can’t do a better job at not allowing four power play goals against on a five-minute major penalty kill.

    San Jose Sharks: Pros and Cons

    San Jose has about $4.683 million in cap space and Joe Thornton is still unsigned. Are we really ready to live in a world where Thornton isn’t on the Sharks and it’s not 1997-2005 again?

    Also, Patrick Marleau is still unsigned too, but that’s besides the point– plus he spent the last two years with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

    Anyway, the Sharks went all in on Erik Karlsson’s extension, shelling out $11.500 million per season for the next eight years through the 2026-27 season.

    As long as Karlsson can remain healthy (and the rest of the roster for that matter, unlike in this spring’s Western Conference Final run), then San Jose’s blue line remains one of the most dynamic forces of offensive capabilities from an otherwise non-traditional source of scoring production.

    Kevin Labanc is an emerging star in a Sharks uniform and will carry a bigger role this season with the departure of Joe Pavelski to the Dallas Stars via free agency.

    Meanwhile, it’s officially the Logan Couture Era in Silicon Valley– if General Manager Doug Wilson is truly moving on from the days of Thornton and Marleau– with supporting roles from Tomas Hertl and Evander Kane.

    While Karlsson’s cap hit tops the league on an otherwise unnerving contract if something goes wrong, Wilson managed to keep Timo Meier in teal for the next four seasons at an affordable $6.000 million cap hit.

    Other than injuries, the only thing that could scare the Sharks out of the waters of contention is the inconsistency of Martin Jones and Aaron Dell in the crease.

    Despite compiling 36 wins on the season in 62 games played, Jones had a career-worst GAA (2.94) and SV% (.896), while Dell also managed to have a career-worst performance as a backup with a 3.17 GAA and a .886 SV% in 25 games played (of which he won 10).

    Yikes.

    How would the Sharks fail?

    San Jose has had everything imaginable happen to them in the postseason, so what seems irrational, inexplicable and/or unimaginable, because that’s probably how they’d lose (again).

    Anaheim Ducks: Pros and Cons

    The Ducks have about $8.500 million in cap space with a good mix of pending-unrestricted free agents and pending-restricted free agents next summer, which means they’ll only have more money to spend and reallocate to their better, younger players like Troy Terry and Daniel Sprong.

    What’s the bad news?

    It’s Anaheim. They’re suffering from buying out Corey Perry’s contract for the next four seasons ($2.625 million in 2019-20, $6.625 million in 2020-21 and $2.000 million from 2021-23), Ryan Getzlaf is signed through 2020-21 and has a no-movement clause, Ryan Kesler may never play again and is also signed through 2021-22 with a no-movement clause and finally, Adam Henrique has a modified no-trade clause and is signed through 2023-24.

    Yes, Kesler can be place on long-term injured reserve and shelved for the remainder of his contract and/or traded elsewhere (after waiving his NMC) to free up cap space if he truly cannot return, but the fact of the matter is the Ducks are still too tied up to takeoff and fly.

    The depth of prospects is sketchy with the Ducks, considering not much is known about their overall plan.

    Are they overcooking some prospects for a better immediate impact in the NHL or should they just play the kids, wait around near the basement of the standings and rebuild?

    Though this forecast has Anaheim tabbed for a divisional spot, they’re likely to be looking from outside the division with perhaps only the saving grace of a wild card spot thanks to John Gibson’s existence as one of the best goaltenders in the game (until the skaters in front of him let him down).

    At the very least, Dallas Eakins is back as a head coach in the NHL, so all is right with the world (and he did a decent job resurrecting his career with a strong performance in San Diego (AHL) after his dismal days in Edmonton).

    How would the Ducks fail?

    General Manager Bob Murray holds onto his cards for too long, talent development stalls and/or Eakins turns out to not be one of those classic examples of a coach that just came into the league a little too early, then got a second chance and succeeded.

    Calgary Flames: Pros and Cons

    The Flames couldn’t win the Cup with two-time All Star goaltender, Mike Smith, on their roster, so they rolling with David Rittich and Cam Talbot– who joins Calgary from their intra-province rival Edmonton Oilers.

    Speaking of the Oilers, that’s where Smith ended up. Goalie swap! But without any actual trading involved, since Talbot was most recently serving as a “Plan C” for the Philadelphia Flyers if Carter Hart, Brian Elliott and Co. weren’t ready to go down the stretch.

    Anyway, back to the “C of Red”.

    Calgary sent James Neal to Edmonton in exchange for Milan Lucic and ended up saving $500,000 per season for the remainder of Lucic’s contract (signed through 2022-23) in the process. The Oilers retained salary in the trade. You heard that right.

    Matthew Tkachuk and Andrew Mangiapane are still unsigned RFAs and General Manager Brad Treliving has about $7.757 million to work with in cap space.

    Get a deal done with Tkachuk and the Flames will go on without any interruption as a team that pleasantly turned a lot of heads in the regular season last year, then sputtered out in the First Round in five games to the Colorado Avalanche.

    Bill Peters is ready for his second season behind the bench in Calgary and the roster looks set to remain in contention for a divisional berth, if not leading the Western Conference once again.

    How would the Flames fail?

    Simply put, if they flame out at the end of the regular season like they did last season– March was a bad month, which led to their demise in five games against Colorado in the First Round.

    Los Angeles Kings: Pros and Cons

    The good news for the Kings? Tyler Toffoli, Trevor Lewis, Kyle Clifford, Mario Kempe, Derek Forbort, Paul LaDue, Joakim Ryan and Jack Campbell are all pending-UFAs after next season and Carl Grundstrom, Austin Wagner, Sean Walker and Kurtis MacDermid are all pending-RFAs.

    The bad news? Drew Doughty is signed through 2026-27 at $11.000 million per season, Anze Kopitar is making $10.000 million per season through 2023-24 and Adrian Kempe is currently an unsigned RFA.

    General Manager Rob Blake has a lot to sort through this season, but he’s already made some corrections to his blunders in his first two seasons as an NHL GM.

    For starters, he replaced Dion Phaneuf with Ryan in free agency, brought back his stable backup goaltender in Campbell on a one-year deal and didn’t give up on Ilya Kovalchuk, but rather hired an actual NHL head coach fit for the contemporary game in Todd McLellan.

    Though Marco Sturm remains one of the best looking assistant coaches in the league, we’ll let this one slide, Los Angeles.

    Are the Kings actually that much better than they were last season? Time will surely tell, but one thing’s for sure– they can’t possibly be much worse, right? Right!?!

    If anything, the Kings are a wild card team at best or situated behind either Vancouver or Arizona at worst in the standings, but they should be lightyears from the basement in the division this season with some solid additions through the draft over the years in Alex Turcotte, Jaret Anderson-Dolan and Gabriel Vilardi.

    Los Angeles should be able to (somewhat) bounce back from their regression last season, but at the same time, the year isn’t 2012 or 2014 anymore. It’s time to start cutting the chord with former “glue guys” turned placeholders on a roster that needs an influx of youth sooner rather than later.

    How would the Kings fail?

    If Jonathan Quick gets hurt in any fashion and Blake can’t get rid of at least one of the eight players on the 23-player roster over aged 30 or older.

    Vancouver Canucks: Pros and Cons

    The Canucks are looking to make it back into the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2015, but did General Manager, Jim Benning do enough this offseason to set Vancouver back on the right track for 2020?

    Benning went out and acquired J.T. Miller from the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for Marek Mazanec, a 2019 3rd round pick and a conditional 2020 1st round pick in June, then signed 29-year-old defender, Tyler Myers to a five-year, $30.000 million contract.

    Miller and Myers are two quality assets compared to previous transactions made in the offseason by the Canucks. For once, Benning didn’t overpay an aging veteran player, but he also hasn’t cleaned up what might be a costly (both in price and on ice) fourth line in a league that runs four lines deep.

    There’s a very real chance that none of the players on Vancouver’s fourth line any given night are making less than $3.000 million per season.

    That’s unfathomable in a salary cap driven sport and only speaks to the number of misguided happenings in asset management by the Canucks.

    Come to think of it, Vancouver only has five players out of a possible 23-player roster making less than $1.000 million per season. Sure, nobody’s making $10.000 million, but all those $2.000 million-plus, $3.000 million-plus, $4.000 million-plus and $5.000 million-plus contracts add up.

    At least Elias Pettersson, Bo Horvat and Brock Boeser are worth watching night-in and night-out. Plus, Thatcher Demko should pan out to be one of the league’s better goaltenders.

    There’s just one concern for Benning as the offseason continues– Boeser and Nikolay Goldobin are still unsigned RFAs.

    And Boeser is certainly worth the four-year, $7.000 million cap hit he’s looking for. Too bad the Canucks only have $5.058 million in cap space though.

    How would the Canucks fail?

    By being close, but not close enough in yet another race for the playoffs. Things are heading in the right direction, however.

    Arizona Coyotes: Pros and Cons

    Mastermind GM John Chayka has landed this offseason’s biggest prize in a trade with the Pittsburgh Penguins– two-time Stanley Cup champion, Team USA representative and hot dog enthusiast, Phil “The Thrill” Kessel.

    Kessel brings his goalscoring prowess to the Western Conference for the first time in his career, having been drafted by the Boston Bruins 5th overall in the 2006 NHL draft, then playing with Boston until being traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2009 and then again the Pittsburgh in 2015.

    No. 81 had 82 points in 82 games played last season, which was down from career-high 34-58–92 totals in 2017-18. Additionally, he hasn’t missed a game since 2010.

    Along with Carl Soderberg– another offseason acquisition in a trade with the Colorado Avalanche– Kessel and the Coyotes are revamped and poised to make a run for the postseason.

    Arizona’s only ranked low in this forecast because of nearly a decade of middle of the road rosters and missed opportunities since losing in the 2012 Western Conference Final in five games to Los Angeles.

    The Coyotes haven’t been back to the playoffs since, but they’re trending upward.

    With Nick Schmaltz, Jakob Chychrun and Oliver Ekman-Larsson locked up on long-term contracts, the core has really come into fruition while Chayka remains active in the draft and trade market.

    Now they just need a little luck on their side to avoid losing Antti Raanta to the injury bug again.

    How would the Coyotes fail?

    If this forecast actually turns out to be true and Arizona finished 7th in the division, because otherwise who would actually want to see them fail?

    Edmonton Oilers: Pros and Cons

    Pro: New GM (Ken Holland) and a new head coach (Dave Tippett).

    Con: Another new GM and a new head coach.

    Pro: Connor McDavid!

    Con: Plays for the Oilers.

    Pro: They were able to trade Milan Lucic.

    Con: While acquiring James Neal and retaining part of Lucic’s salary in the process, thereby spending more money than in the first place.

    Pro: They should actually be better this year.

    Con: We keep saying every year, even about a team that has the second-greatest player in the game behind Sidney Crosby on the roster.

    Pro: There’s a lot of pending UFAs and RFAs on the roster.

    Con: That means at least half of them are now going to have a career-year in a contract year and be overpaid either by Edmonton or other teams in the next offseason.

    Pro: Two-time All Star Mike Smith signed a one-year deal to backup Mikko Koskinen.

    Con: The average age of Edmonton’s goaltending duo is 34.

    How would the Oilers fail?

    How there’s any such thing as optimism besides having McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in Edmonton is incredible. If they make it to a wild card berth, it’d take McDavid playing every position, probably.

  • Nothing to see here, folks: The NHL isn’t opting out

    Friday afternoon the National Hockey League’s PR department released a statement on behalf of League Commissioner Gary Bettman indicating the NHL is not utilizing an early termination clause in their current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) with the National Hockey League Players’ Association (NHLPA).

    In short, though the league has concerns of their own, it is ultimately beneficial “to operate under the terms of the current CBA– while working with the [NHLPA] to address our respective concerns…” the statement read in part, adding that the “[benefits] far outweigh the disruptive consequences of terminating [the CBA] following the upcoming season.”

    Bettman’s statement read in full,

    “Based on the current state of the game and the business of the game, the NHL believes it is essential to continue building upon the momentum we have created with our Players and, therefore, will not exercise its option to reopen the CBA.

    “Rather, we are prepared to have the current CBA remain in effect for its full term– three more seasons through the conclusion of the 2021-22 season. It is our hope that a continued, sustained period of labor peace will enable us to further grow the game and benefit all constituent groups: NHL Players, Clubs, our business partners and, most important, our fans.

    “In any CBA, the parties can always identify issues they are unhappy with and would like to see changed. This is certainly true from the League’s standpoint. However, our analysis makes clear that the benefits of continuing to operate under the terms of the current CBA– while working with the Players’ Association to address our respective concerns– far outweigh the disruptive consequences of terminating it following the upcoming season.”

    The two sides have been meeting regularly throughout the offseason to discuss a possible extension of the current CBA and talks have been “productive and cordial” as noted by both sides in the NHL’s press release.

    While the NHL would certainly like to see a larger cut of the revenue from all streams (what owner wouldn’t?), the league would also like to push forward with further cementing its image as a global brand.

    A couple hours before Bettman’s statement was released, the NHLPA made it known in a media release of their own that the NHL had informed them the league would not be using its opt-out to terminate the current CBA next year.

    The union has until Sept. 15th to reopen the current CBA, giving both sides a year to negotiate an agreement (either a new CBA or an extension on the current CBA) before it expires.

    For those that are dying to know, the earliest possible date of a work stoppage would be the 2020-21 season.

    But there’s reason to believe there won’t be any such interruption in the business and game fans enjoy.

    Yes, the NHLPA would like to rework the current frameworks surrounding escrow, Olympic participation (specifically in the upcoming 2022 Winter Games) and the overall split of hockey-related revenue.

    Those things have been long-known since (in order) escrow was introduced in the last decade, the players weren’t able to participate in the 2018 Winter Games and, finally, forever.

    Both sides are wanting more international competition and are communicating about the possibility to hold another World Cup of Hockey as early as February 2021, following the cancellation of the 2020 World Cup of Hockey announced back in January.

    Some players are worried the salary cap is inflating too fast and isn’t sustainable given current revenues.

    However, there’s two reasonable methods of dealing with this and one additional method both sides would’ve done in the past (*ahem* work stoppage).

    First, under the current escrow stipulations, a small percentage of players salaries is withheld by the league in a trust setup to account for “unexpected” expenses, such that, if the league revenue isn’t as much as owners had hoped, then the money in the trust goes back to boost the owners wallets.

    It’s not terrible– in concept– however, the current escrow situation for the league and players is that the percentage fluctuates from year-to-year, let alone financial quarter-to-quarter.

    As such, players can miss out on a variable amount of salary, because the league can (and will) sometimes fudge the numbers in revenue growth to show that the league needs the money more and can therefore boost the salary cap the following season.

    It’s a way of dangling bait in the water for the larger fish (pending-UFAs) to potentially make more on their next contract in total salary, cap hit, etc., but they might not actually make that much since the escrow exists.

    In other words, $10.000 million cap hits can be handed out like candy under the current rules because owners know they won’t actually end up shelling out $10.000 million a year to their best player(s).

    It’s the union’s interest to benefit not just the top-end players, but all players– as they’re all union members (see, that’s how unions work).

    The salary cap was $79.500 million in 2018-19– up $4.500 million from 2017-18– but only raised to $81.500 million for the 2018-19 season.

    While general managers continue to handout bad contracts on July 1st as they always do, the intent is worth more than the bad asset management that may or may not have played out for your favorite team this summer.

    A lower raise in the salary cap means that there might be a lower escrow withheld from player’s salaries, which means everyone makes more money.

    Owners don’t have to spend to the (would be more expensive) ceiling and the lower limit doesn’t go up as much as a league-wide mandatory minimum payment (*ahem* Eugene), while players take home more of what they were signed for.

    If both sides continue to keep escrow low and barely raise the salary cap from year-to-year under the current CBA, then both sides just might be happier in the long-run.

    Then there’s the second option, which is really just an extension of the first option, but with the mutual understanding of what’s down the road.

    The current United States national broadcasting rights deal with NBC Universal expires at the end of the 2021-22 season– coinciding with the current CBA’s expiration date (as long as the NHLPA doesn’t enact their early termination clause).

    Not that all parties involved have to wait until the last minute on everything, but if escrow is lowered and the salary cap isn’t increased as much from season-to-season for the next three seasons, then by the next US broadcasting rights contract, everyone will make out a winner.

    The current deal brought in $2 billion ($200 million per season) between NBC and NBCSN in the United States and CBC/Sportsnet in Canada.

    Most major professional North American sports leagues are now seeing at least double that total amount for the same timeframe– meaning it’s quite possible the NHL will add close to a billion, if not at least a billion, dollars per season to the league’s total revenue.

    Even if the NHLPA gave up a percentage of their current revenue split with the league, just about any percentage out of a billion US dollars per season is worth more than the current percentage out of $200 million per season.

    If both sides can keep escrow low, keep the cap from inflating too much and wait three seasons, then it’s a surefire cash cow as the demand for sports on major networks increases in the States.

    But wait, what about streaming?

    It’s true– streaming live sports is a growing industry and that can all be attached or sold separately by the league in the next media package.

    Speaking of which, it might be time to return to two major US networks in favor of even bigger gains…

    Regardless, both the NHL and the NHLPA are in much better shape than the last couple of CBA negotiations.

    This time around– provided everyone is patient and actually understands the reasoning behind the careful decision making– it’s really a no brainer.

    There’s nothing to see here, folks. Move along.

    Of note, the NHLPA’s executive board is scheduled to meet in Chicago on Wednesday. There’s been a work stoppage prior to the ratifying of the past three CBAs, yielding a 48-game season in 1994-95, the cancellation of the entire 2004-05 season and 48-game season in 2012-13.

    But the league isn’t falling on economically hard times in nearly half of its franchises (like in the 1990s), the salary cap was created (and a necessity) out of the 2004-05 lockout and the initial “growing pains” of the salary cap era seem to have sorted themselves out since 2012.

  • 2019-20 Central Division Outlook

    As the entire hockey world awaits training camp action next month, let’s make some (un)educated guesses about the upcoming season that will totally pan out because everything always goes as expected. (It doesn’t.)

    The projected standings below are only a forecast.

    They are based on recent indications– as well as the last few seasons of stats– and cannot account for variations in roster construction (a.k.a. trades and free agency moves).

    There’s a lot of variables that will turn the tables upside down, including transactions, injuries and otherwise. Anything can happen.

    As always, it’s more important to remember 1) the spread and 2) the positioning.

    Just how many points separate the projected division winner from the last wild card spot (the spread) and where a team is supposed to finish in the division standings (the position) can imply that things aren’t always what they seem.

    A team that’s projected to win it all still has to play an 82-game regular season, qualify for the playoffs and go on to amass 16 wins in the postseason.

    Projected Standings After ZERO Months

    Central Division

    1. z-Nashville Predators, 103 points
    2. x-St. Louis Blues, 100 points
    3. x-Winnipeg Jets, 97 points
    4. wc2-Minnesota Wild, 93 points
    5. Chicago Blackhawks, 92 points
    6. Dallas Stars, 92 points
    7. Colorado Avalanche, 86 points

    Nashville Predators: Pros and Cons

    Before you continue reading, it’s important to remember that this is the most unpredictable division in the league currently. Seriously.

    Nashville is more than likely going to take the division in the regular season thanks to their minor moves in the offseason and major gains in the long haul, but everything else?

    That’s to be determined.

    Matt Duchene’s cap hit ($8,000,000) costs the Preds a million dollars less than P.K. Subban ($9,000,000), but there’s 10 pending UFAs on the roster after this season. If a legitimate one-two duo down the middle can’t get the Predators a Cup, then this window may be closing– and fast.

    Pekka Rinne isn’t getting any young and the crease will soon be Juuse Saros’ before you know it.

    The good news?

    The Preds are still one of the most impressive teams on the blue line with Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis and Dante Fabbro.

    How would the Predators fail?

    Somehow 30 points in a season gets you a seven-year contract (*ahem* Colton Sissons), but kudos to General Manager David Poile on doing so at a $2.857 cap hit though. That being said, this is dangerous logic that’s tempting fate at the hands of the Hockey Gods, which might only further weaken Nashville’s goaltending when it counts in the postseason.

    St. Louis Blues: Pros and Cons

    Glue guys score important goals in the playoffs and glue guys come in all shapes and sizes– including dadbod, a la Pat Maroon.

    But there’s just one problem, the hometown hero that lifted St. Louis over Dallas into the Western Conference Final has left the Blues for the Tampa Bay Lightning– a product of the salary cap era, a big postseason performance and a… wait, he’s not making a huge salary?

    Why did Maroon leave? Because Ivan Barbashev– the younger, better, faster, stronger more long-term approach player– is still an unsigned RFA and the Blues have less than $2.000 million in cap space currently.

    St. Louis still has its core, however, and will now find out if Jordan Binnington is truly “The One” or a one hit wonder over the course of a full season of having Binnington as their starter.

    When all is said and done, the defending champs have a great chance to continue to make noise in the regular season and, well, we’ve never experienced the Blues winning the Cup before, so… can it happen again? Is that a thing?

    How would the Blues fail?

    The cliché Stanley Cup hangover. It’s a long, grueling, season that takes its toll– even with all sorts of proper training and nutrition.

    Winnipeg Jets: Pros and Cons

    The Jets are in trouble. Sure, they might have a decent season and finish in a divisional spot heading into the playoffs, but they’ve got about $16.150 million in cap space and currently unsigned RFAs in Patrik Laine, Kyle Connor and Eric Comrie right now.

    Not to mention the fact that they traded Jacob Trouba to the New York Rangers in the offseason for Neal Pionk, but at least Winnipeg got back their 2019 1st round pick in the transaction (previously dealt to New York in the Kevin Hayes trade).

    Yes, a team that should see a bounce-back season in the crease from Connor Hellebuyck leading the way to a potential deep postseason run, might not even make it past the First Round if two of their prominent players (Laine and Connor) are still unsigned by the start of the regular season.

    Other than that, Dustin Byfuglien is aiming for a strong run without any more injuries and the rest of Winnipeg is looking to quietly do their thing under the tremendous leadership of their captain, Blake Wheeler.

    How would the Jets fail?

    If Laine and/or Connor miss any part of the regular season, the Jets aren’t going to be soaring all that far without the fuel to get them to the Stanley Cup Final.

    Minnesota Wild: Pros and Cons

    What an offseason for the Wild and their fans, right? I mean, things are really wild in Minnesota.

    First, Mats Zuccarello lands a five-year, $30.000 million contract in the State of Hockey, then (now former) General Manager Paul Fenton is fired and now Bill Guerin has his first job as an NHL GM.

    Welcome to the club, Mr. Guerin, now undo all of this mess that was done by the last guy and the guy before him dating back to July 4, 2012.

    At least a full season of Ryan Donato in a Wild sweater should be exciting.

    Joel Eriksson Ek signed a two-year extension and Ryan Suter’s play wasn’t too terrible last season, but the wheels fell off in the crease because of how bad puck possession was in front of Devan Dubnyk and Alex Stalock.

    Though they’re forecasted as a wild card berth (the forecast formula accounts for more than just last season), Minnesota’s not looking like they’re really going to be much better than they were last season– if at all.

    Unless Guerin has any big plans up his sleeve and can get to work patching the holes left and right.

    How would the Wild fail?

    If they add another player over the age of 30 to their roster, then you know it’s a full-on rebuild (which might actually be for the better at this point).

    Chicago Blackhawks: Pros and Cons

    Patrick Kane had a tremendous season in 2018-19, amassing 44-66–110 totals in 81 games while the Blackhawks failed to make the postseason for the second straight year.

    In the meantime, those that remain from Chicago’s three Cups in five years core are another year older. Jonathan Toews is 31, Kane is 30, Brent Seabrook is 34, Duncan Keith is 36 and starting goaltender, Corey Crawford, is 34.

    While incredibly talented, time is not on the Hawks’ side.

    That’s why General Manager Stan Bowman has been working to make the team younger with Dylan Strome, Alex DeBrincat and newcomer Olli Maatta (acquired in a trade with the Pittsburgh Penguins this summer) taking on larger roles on the Original Six squad.

    Even better, 28-year-old defender in his prime, Calvin de Haan, bolsters Chicago’s blue line and provides some much needed time on ice relief for Seabrook and/or Keith as second-year head coach, Jeremy Colliton, sees fit.

    Winning the 3rd overall pick in the draft in June, brought Kirby Dach into the equation– whether he’ll be ready for NHL stardom behind Toews and Strome immediately or not.

    Though the Blackhawks are forecasted to narrowly miss the postseason for the third straight season, they aren’t going to miss out on the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs by much and will be the team to knock out one of the teams higher up in this outlook (*ahem* Minnesota).

    How would the Blackhawks fail?

    Age continues to chip away at the memories of yesteryear. That, or injuries, probably.

    Dallas Stars: Pros and Cons

    The Stars weren’t happy with the production from their best players despite the fact that they were– in fact– their best players. Who would’ve thought?

    But now Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn are joined by veterans Joe Pavelski and Corey Perry among Dallas’ forwards, while Andrej Sekera has taken a supporting role on the defense in place of the current unrestricted free agent Marc Methot (who may retire altogether).

    On the bright side, Dallas’ defense contains Miro Heiskanen, Esa Lindell, John Klingberg and one of the most underrated aspects in the league– itself.

    The Stars defense– combined with the superb duo of Ben Bishop as the starting goaltender and Anton Khudobin as their backup– is really solid.

    Unfortunately, the team with the most goals at the end of the game always wins and sometimes Dallas just couldn’t score.

    That’s where General Manager Jim Nill has looked to Pavelski’s prowess and Perry’s ability– should he rebound– to try to fill the cracks in their offensive game and start winning games even if they only give up a goal or two when it matters most (the playoffs).

    Should the Stars beat the aging curve, they’ll make it back to the playoffs. But don’t think it’s easy– they coasted into the postseason last season and shouldn’t make a habit out of that if they’re looking to play their best hockey deep into June.

    How would the Stars fail?

    Somehow bringing in Pavelski (35-years-old), Perry (34), Sekera (33)– thereby increasing your overall average age– and expanding your list of no-trade and/or no-movement clauses to seven players on your roster just doesn’t always seem to payout. But at least Perry and Sekera are on one-year, $1.500 million contracts.

    Colorado Avalanche: Pros and Cons

    Pro: This forecast doesn’t take into account how much of an outlier the 2016-17 season was for the Avs.

    Con: Unfortunately, the 2016-17 season has to be included in the dataset to “accurately” predict the upcoming season’s outcome until the 2026-27 season or so.

    Pro: Colorado has one of the best first lines in the NHL.

    Con: Mikko Rantanen is still an unsigned RFA (and he’s a vital part of the first line).

    Pro: Joonas Donskoi, Nazem Kadri, Calle Rosen and Andre Burakovsky are all newcomers to the Avalanche with something to prove. GM Joe Sakic was busy on the phone(s)!

    Con: If the team doesn’t gel by January, it’s going to be a long season.

    Pro: Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar.

    Con: The number of games Gabriel Landeskog will be suspended for at some point in the season.

    Pro: This is a very exciting team to watch and a surefire dark-horse to make the Stanley Cup Final.

    Con: Now I’ve jinxed them.

    How would the Avalanche fail?

    By proving this forecast right and inexplicably regressing to their 2016-17 season ways. Otherwise, they’re definitely not actually finishing last in the Central Division… right?

  • DTFR Podcast #166- New New New York

    DTFR Podcast #166- New New New York

    Nick and Colby recap the headlines from the last month as well as take a look at all of the New York market teams and try to figure out if any of them are actually any good as Season Six of the podcast begins.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

  • 2019-20 Metropolitan Division Outlook

    As the entire hockey world awaits training camp action next month, let’s make some (un)educated guesses about the upcoming season that will totally pan out because everything always goes as expected. (It doesn’t.)

    The projected standings below are only a forecast.

    They are based on recent indications– as well as the last few seasons of stats– and cannot account for variations in roster construction (a.k.a. trades and free agency moves).

    There’s a lot of variables that will turn the tables upside down, including transactions, injuries and otherwise. Anything can happen.

    As always, it’s more important to remember 1) the spread and 2) the positioning.

    Just how many points separate the projected division winner from the last wild card spot (the spread) and where a team is supposed to finish in the division standings (the position) can imply that things aren’t always what they seem.

    A team that’s projected to win it all still has to play an 82-game regular season, qualify for the playoffs and go on to amass 16 wins in the postseason.

    Projected Standings After ZERO Months

    Metropolitan Division

    1. y-Washington Capitals, 107 points
    2. x-Pittsburgh Penguins, 102 points
    3. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 93 points
    4. wc1-New York Islanders, 91 points
    5. wc2-Philadelphia Flyers, 91 points
    6. New York Rangers, 89 points
    7. Carolina Hurricanes, 87 points
    8. New Jersey Devils, 84 points

    Washington Capitals: Pros and Cons

    Year after year, Washington finds themselves at the top of the Metropolitan Division with or without any sort of logical explanation.

    The last time the Capitals didn’t finish 1st in the division? It was the 2014-15 season when the New York Rangers followed up a 2014 Stanley Cup Final appearance with 113 points and the President’s Trophy.

    Once again, the Caps will find a way to turn things on late into the season and manage the top spot in the Metropolitan Division, but they’ll be doing so without a long list of members from their 2018 Stanley Cup championship roster.

    After matching his regular season goal scoring total in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Devante Smith-Pelly wasn’t able to get back to form and subsequently reassigned to the American Hockey League’s Hershey Bears during the 2018-19 season.

    Now, he’s an unrestricted free agent.

    Also departing Washington this summer were the likes of Brett Connolly (signed with Florida), Andre Burakovsky (traded to Colorado for Scott Kosmachuk, a 2nd round pick in 2020 and a 3rd round pick in 2020), Nathan Walker (signed with St. Louis), Matt Niskanen (traded to Philadelphia in exchange for Radko Gudas) and Brooks Orpik (retired)

    Madison Bowey was traded to Detroit in February. Jakub Jerabek left via free agency last season and is now playing in the KHL. Philipp Grubauer was traded to the Avalanche last June. Jay Beagle signed with the Vancouver Canucks last July. Alex Chiasson joined the Edmonton Oilers last October.

    With such a quick turnover in the makeup of their lineup, the Capitals’ championship window may already be closing– and fast.

    At least Garnet Hathaway, Richard Panik and Carl Hagelin all signed four-year contracts with cap hits under $3.000 million.

    How would the Capitals fail?

    Radko Gudas and Tom Wilson end up suspended for the entire season somehow and get the rest of the Capitals in trouble for something.

    Pittsburgh Penguins: Pros and Cons

    Phil Kessel is signed through 2021-22 at $6.800 million per season. Alex Galchenyuk is signed through 2019-20 with a cap hit of $4.900 million.

    Using the money saved from trading Kessel to Arizona and hoping Galchenyuk will suddenly become a 30 or 40 goal scorer simply because he’s now on the same roster as Sidney Crosby, Penguins General Manager, Jim Rutherford, figured it’d be a smart move to lock up Brandon Tanev in free agency with a six-year contract at $3.500 million per season and a modified no-trade clause one offseason removed from signing Jack Johnson.

    If there’s any positives for Pittsburgh, it’s that Crosby still exists and Mike Sullivan remains the head coach. Oh and Evgeni Malkin exists too, though some would find it hard to believe, since he wasn’t included in the top-100 players of the last century list.

    As long as Matt Murray and Casey DeSmith can weather the storm of an insufficient defense, injuries and inadequacy from last season, then there’s a good chance the current longest active playoff appearance streak remains alive.

    If not, well, just look for Rutherford to continue to move chairs around on the Titanic.

    This team is starting to spring a leak. If they’re not careful, they’ll sink in the standings.

    But since the season really doesn’t start until January anyway for the Pens, they’ll work their way into a playoff berth as they’ve done for the last dozen years or so.

    How would the Penguins fail?

    Rutherford trades another goal scorer for a “glue guy” and clones Tanev and/or Johnson. Realistically, Murray continues to cool down from his meteoric rise a couple of seasons ago and won’t cost too much as a pending-RFA.

    Columbus Blue Jackets: Pros and Cons

    All my ex’s live in… everywhere but Columbus.

    The Blue Jackets lost Artemi Panarin to the New York Rangers, Sergei Bobrovsky to the Florida Panthers, Matt Duchene to the Nashville Predators and Ryan Dzingel to the Carolina Hurricanes, but they brought in Gustav Nyquist and brought back Marko Dano via free agency.

    Yeah, ok, so it wasn’t a great summer for Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen and Blue Jackets fans– even if they knew at least one of their big names (Bobrovsky) was never going to re-sign.

    But while a lot of armchair GMs think the Blue Jackets are destined for a rebuild, there’s a glimmer of optimism if Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins can carry the weight of the crease, while younger players like Alexandre Texier, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Josh Anderson continue to emerge.

    Making it as far as they did into the Second Round of the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs was vital to the experience gained by Columbus’ core.

    Though they’re likely not going to a be a dominant force in 2019-20, they should be in contention for what would be a fifth playoff berth in seven years under Kekalainen’s reign.

    And if they turn heads again like they did when they swept the President’s Trophy winning Tampa Bay Lightning in the First Round, then there’s sure to be some interest in lacing up the skates for the Blue Jackets in the future.

    Then again, it could be tank city until Korpisalo or Merzlikins becomes a legitimate starter and somebody becomes an 80-point scorer again.

    It just takes some time… Oh and someone should probably re-sign Zach Werenski while you’re at it.

    How would the Blue Jackets fail?

    The Union doesn’t lose. Ok, if everybody leaves, then it might.

    New York Islanders: Pros and Cons

    Having Lou Lamoriello as your General Manager means some players are going to love him (if they’ve already been with him for many years before) and some players are going to be chased out of the city when they are told they are going in a different direction, but then don’t quite land who they think they’re getting, only to leave you once again for… well, Semyon Varlamov isn’t really an upgrade at this point.

    But Robin Lehner’s gone after winning the Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy with the Rangers Islanders last season after having a remarkable career-year in the face of addiction and other struggles.

    New York’s only getting older and Anders Lee took a “hometown discount” to stay on Long Island.

    Speaking of Long Island, is it too early to start construction on the Belmont Park arena yet?

    Something has to distract everyone from the undercutting of several prospect’s development– whether they’ve rightfully had a chance to prove themselves at the NHL level or not.

    Barry Trotz is a great head coach, but how much more can he do with a middle of the road team that gives up on prospects too early?

    Get them back to the Second Round only to be crushed by a team that’s mixing youth, speed, skill, grit and actually playing 21st century hockey?

    It’s almost as though the Islanders learned nothing from 1995-2006.

    How would the Islanders fail?

    It’s [the] trap!

    Philadelphia Flyers: Pros and Cons

    Flyers General Manager, Chuck Fletcher, actually hasn’t had that bad of an offseason– at least when it comes to tweaking his roster.

    Sure Matt Niskanen and Justin Braun are both 32-years-old, but they’re decent top-4 defenders that should be able to lead from the back end with Shayne Gostisbehere as Travis Sanheim and Ivan Provorov come into their own.

    Speaking of Provorov, he’s still an unsigned-RFA and Philadelphia has more than enough money (about $13.400 million in cap space) to get some sort of a deal done right now. Why wait until the last minute? What’s that? Travis Konecny needs a contract right now too? Oh never mind. Let’s make things complicated!

    Besides giving Kevin Hayes a seven-year contract worth $7.143 million per season with a no-movement clause, the Flyers should have– a lot of explaining to do when their experiment doesn’t work out.

    The Hayes contract is bad, but just how bad can things get with Hayes back on a team that’s coached by… Alain Vigneault!?!

    Vigneault’s the real wild card here as the jury is still out on whether or not his style still fits the game or if the Rangers were just that bad in his final year with New York.

    All things considered, Philadelphia should be back into playoff contention. Just not Cup contention in 2019-20.

    How much more of this can Claude Giroux take?

    How would the Flyers fail?

    Alain Vigneault, Mike Yeo and Michel Therrien can’t figure out who is actually the head coach on a night-to-night basis even though Vigneault technically owns the job (Yeo and Therrien are assistant coaches for the Flyers, if you haven’t heard). Oh and goaltending if Carter Hart gets injured.

    New York Rangers: Pros and Cons

    The Rangers landed the biggest prize in free agency, signing Artemi Panarin to a seven-year contract worth $11.643 million per season.

    Though they are still in a rebuild, Panarin’s addition to the roster helps make New York more of an attractive destination and speeds things up in the overall plan.

    It doesn’t hurt that GM Jeff Gorton had the 2nd overall pick in this year’s draft too. Kaapo Kakko is ready for the limelight in Manhattan as Henrik Lundqvist’s reign is in its twilight days.

    Lundqvist is under contract through the 2020-21 season and at 37-years-old– it’d take a miracle for the Rangers to win him a Cup at this point.

    The Rangers only have one forward over the age of 30 (Matt Beleskey’s 31) and two defenders 30 or older as well (Brendan Smith, 30, and Marc Staal, 32).

    Beleskey is likely to bounce around the organization between New York and Hartford (AHL), while there’s a good chance Smith could be buried as well.

    But their “veteran presence” is valuable to time on ice management among the younger skaters that might not be quite as NHL ready as Kakko and friends.

    Jacob Trouba is new to the Rangers and destined to anchor their new-age defense from the top pairing, while Kevin Shattenkirk joins the long list of buyouts in recent years by New York.

    The Rangers are short almost $5.400 million in dead cap space thanks to Shattenkirk, Dan Girardi and Ryan Spooner’s buyouts around the league (Shattenkirk and Girardi were Rangers buyouts, but Spooner had retained salary and was bought out by the Vancouver Canucks this offseason).

    Next year, New York faces almost $7.500 million in cap penalties from the trio of buyouts before Spooner comes off the books entirely and the number dips down to about $2.544 million from 2021-22 to 2022-23.

    Also another Harvard product– Adam Fox– is the new Jimmy Vesey experiment, but on the blue line. And Vesey? He was traded to Buffalo.

    Panarin and Kakko are worth watching this season, while the rest of the team remains to be seen.

    How would the Rangers fail?

    Henrik Lundqvist stops looking so good all of a sudden. That man is stunning.

    Carolina Hurricanes: Pros and Cons

    Though the forecast says otherwise, Carolina should actually be closer to playoff contention than you may think coming off their 2019 Eastern Conference Final appearance.

    Hurricanes General Manager, Don Waddell, has weathered the storm this offseason. Actually, his job was made pretty easy when the Montreal Canadiens signed Sebastian Aho to a five-year offer sheet worth $8.454 million per season.

    Considering the value Aho brings and the potential that’s still there– that’s a steal.

    Though a little more than $21 million in signing bonuses through the first two years is considered a “hefty” price for an owner to pay, let’s remember that we’re talking about professional sports.

    If Montreal really wanted to make things difficult for Canes owner, Tom Dundon, then they should’ve offered something with a larger cap hit, but that would’ve meant a steeper price to pay in compensation had Carolina not matched the deal. #AdvantageCarolina

    Aho will be 27 by the time his new contract runs out, which means he’ll be a pending-UFA in 2024, but there’s plenty of time to worry about the next contract when the time comes.

    Right now, the Hurricanes have added some much needed top-six/top-nine forward depth in Erik Haula (acquired from Vegas) and Ryan Dzingel (signed via free agency), while adding a 1st round pick in 2020 (or 2021 if Toronto’s 2020 1st rounder is a top-10 overall selection) and swapping Calvin de Haan with the Chicago Blackhawks for Gustav Forsling (there were other pieces involved, like Anton Forsberg going to Carolina too).

    The average age of Carolina’s skaters? 25.

    Considering how far the core went in 2018-19, that’s beyond impressive and it’s a testament to head coach, Rod Brind’Amour.

    In July, Petr Mrazek re-signed with the Hurricanes on a two-year deal and James Reimer was acquired in a trade with the Florida Panthers as Curtis McElhinney signed with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

    Though Alex Nedeljkovic might be another year out from competing for the starting job, the crease is Mrazek’s to lose once again with Reimer looking to rebound from a dismal time in Florida.

    Carolina is poised for another deep run, but how soon will it be given the fact that their emergence as a contender means that every other team wants to beat them that much more from night-to-night?

    How would the Hurricanes fail?

    The Canes have a strong analytics department, so the only thing that could naturally disrupt their plans? Regression (and no WiFi).

    New Jersey Devils: Pros and Cons

    The Devils won the draft lottery and procured Jack Hughes with the 1st overall pick in June.

    New Jersey was third-to-last in overall standings last season.

    Though they added P.K. Subban in a trade with the Nashville Predators in June, drafted Hughes and have Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier and Will Butcher on their roster, the Devils still need a lot of pieces to improve.

    Hall’s a pending-UFA at season’s end. His next deal– whether it’s with New Jersey or not– determines the fate of this team.

    Cory Schneider’s still under contract through 2021-22 and Mackenzie Blackwood is only 22-years-old.

    Goaltenders are rarely superstars when they’re that young, so while Blackwood may be the starter heading into the season and goalie of the future for the organization– it wouldn’t be a surprise to see some ups and downs before the dust settles.

    Now for the good news.

    Nikita Gusev was acquired in a trade with the Golden Knights and Ray Shero doesn’t have a lot of no-trade clauses to deal with if the Devils look to sell at the trade deadline.

    How would the Devils fail?

    If they somehow lose the Taylor Hall trade a few years after winning it.

  • 2019-20 Atlantic Division Outlook

    As the entire hockey world awaits training camp action next month, let’s make some (un)educated guesses about the upcoming season that will totally pan out because everything always goes as expected. (It doesn’t.)

    The projected standings below are only a forecast.

    They are based on recent indications– as well as the last few seasons of stats– and cannot account for variations in roster construction (a.k.a. trades and free agency moves).

    There’s a lot of variables that will turn the tables upside down, including transactions, injuries and otherwise. Anything can happen.

    As always, it’s more important to remember 1) the spread and 2) the positioning.

    Just how many points separate the projected division winner from the last wild card spot (the spread) and where a team is supposed to finish in the division standings (the position) can imply that things aren’t always what they seem.

    A team that’s projected to win it all still has to play an 82-game regular season, qualify for the playoffs and go on to amass 16 wins in the postseason.

    Projected Standings After ZERO Months

    Atlantic Division

    1. p-Tampa Bay Lightning, 109 points
    2. x-Boston Bruins, 105 points
    3. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 91 points
    4. Florida Panthers, 89 points
    5. Montreal Canadiens, 89 points
    6. Detroit Red Wings, 84 points
    7. Ottawa Senators, 78 points
    8. Buffalo Sabres, 71 points

    Tampa Bay Lightning: Pros and Cons

    The Lightning are annual favorites among the experts to win the Stanley Cup, so it’s no surprise, really, that they haven’t yet. There’s either too many expectations to live up to or there’s too much of a casual atmosphere from season-to-season.

    You know what they say when you assume.

    Just like the Washington Capitals and their 2018 Stanley Cup championship, it’s better for the Bolts if nobody is talking about them. Prior to the Caps winning in 2018, there was a “Cup or bust” mantra that just didn’t work.

    Nothing is willed without hard work and humility.

    That’s not to say Tampa doesn’t work hard or isn’t humble, but rather, they must lose on the big stage repetitively until everyone expects them to fail. That’s when they’ll go on a run.

    They’ve managed to keep their roster together (granted, RFA center, Brayden Point, is still unsigned) while trimming the fat (gone are the days of Anton Stralman and Dan Girardi on the blue line) and are still Stanley Cup front-runners, but they likely won’t get back to the 60-win plateau in back-to-back seasons.

    The Lightning will still get to 50 wins for the third season in-a-row, have Nikita Kucherov set the league on fire in scoring and yield out-of-this-world goaltending from Andrei Vasilevskiy before the real season starts– the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

    How would the Lightning fail?

    Everyone keeps talking about the Lightning as if they’re some godsend (too much hype, remember?). That, or General Manager Julien BriseBois blows up the roster and/or Jon Cooper is fired as head coach.

    Boston Bruins: Pros and Cons

    The Bruins core remains strong among their forwards and as long as they’re able to negotiate an extension with RFAs Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo without any bumps in the road, then their defense is pretty sound too.

    Jaroslav Halak signed a two-year deal last summer, so the 1A/1B tandem of Tuukka Rask and Halak in the crease seems fine for another run in 2019-20.

    Boston exceeded expectations in 2017-18 and went under the radar in 2018-19– though they managed to amass only 10 losses in regulation since Jan. 1st, which means they were actually pretty loud in the points percentage column.

    Injuries come and go.

    If the Bruins are able to stay healthy instead of dropping like flies to their 12th defenseman on the depth chart, they might actually pick up a few more points than they did last season.

    With Bruce Cassidy as head coach, things should remain status quo in the regular season, but Boston still needs to address their top-six forward problem.

    David Pastrnak can play on the first or second line, but on any given night that leaves one of their top two lines in need of a scoring winger.

    General Manager Don Sweeney managed to patch a hole at the third line center– acquiring Charlie Coyle as last season’s trade deadline loomed– and Coyle was one of their better players in their 2019 Stanley Cup Final postseason run.

    But with a couple of depth signings for bottom six roles in the offseason (Par Lindholm and Brett Ritchie), everyone getting another year older and David Backes’ $6.000 million cap hit through 2020-21 still on the books, Boston’s hands are tied.

    How would the Bruins fail?

    There’s enough bark in the regular season, but not enough bite for a deep postseason run. It’s harder than ever before to make it back to the Stanley Cup Final in back-to-back seasons– and that’s before you consider age, injuries and regression.

    Toronto Maple Leafs: Pros and Cons

    Toronto has Auston Matthews as their second best center. Yes. Second best. Why? Because John Tavares enters the second year of his long-term seven-year deal that he signed last July.

    That alone will continue to keep the Leafs afloat with a strong 1-2 duo down the middle.

    Regardless of the Mitch Marner contract negotiations (or lack thereof), the Maple Leafs are just fine with their forwards– having traded Nazem Kadri to the Colorado Avalanche and acquiring Alex Kerfoot in the process (Calle Rosen and Tyson Barrie were also swapped in the deal).

    Patrick Marleau is gone and it only cost Toronto a conditional 2020 1st round pick (top-10 lottery protected) and a 2020 7th round pick in the process, but an affordable Jason Spezza at league minimum salary ($700,000) on a one-year deal for fourth line minutes will do just fine.

    By puck drop for the 2019-20 season, the Leafs will save $10.550 million in cap space thanks to David Clarkson (yes, his contract’s back after a trade with the Vegas Golden Knights that sent Garret Sparks the other way) and Nathan Horton’s placement on the long-term injured reserve.

    The stars are aligning for Toronto to still need to get past the First Round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2004.

    With Kadri gone, however, perhaps they will be able to do so with or without Boston in the equation.

    How would the Leafs fail?

    They don’t sign Marner and they lose in another Game 7 because of it. There’s a lot of turbulence ahead for Toronto General Manager Kyle Dubas considering the Leafs have one defender under contract after 2019-20. If the team doesn’t breakout in the postseason, it’s really just status quo until proven otherwise.

    Florida Panthers: Pros and Cons

    The Panthers are beginning to ripen with a mix of youth and experience among their forwards, plus a defense that quietly does their job.

    They also added Noel Acciari, Brett Connolly, Anton Stralman and (most importantly) Sergei Bobrovsky to the mix.

    While Acciari’s $1.667 million cap hit through 2021-22 is a slight overpay for a fourth line center, at least it could be worse. Connolly’s making $3.500 million for the next four years and even Stralman has a cap hit of $5.500 million through 2021-22 when he’ll be turning 36 on August 1, 2022.

    Ok, so it was an expensive offseason for Florida– and that’s before you add the $10.000 million price tag for the next seven years of Bobrovsky in the crease.

    Yes, despite landing one of the better goaltenders in the league in free agency, General Manager Dale Tallon managed to make matters complicated after, say, the fourth year of Bobrovsky’s contract.

    Bobrovsky will be roughly 37-years-old by the time his contract with the Panthers expires and not everyone can be like Dwayne Roloson in the net forever.

    At least they drafted Spencer Knight (in the first round– a goaltending prospect curse).

    Though they missed the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs by 12 points for an Eastern Conference wild card spot, the Panthers are in a position to gain more than a few wins with new head coach (and three-time Stanley Cup champion) Joel Quenneville behind the bench.

    How would the Panthers fail?

    Florida’s already landed the biggest prize in head coaching free agency with Quenneville reuniting with Tallon in Sunrise. What could possibly go wrong (besides Tallon being replaced by a clone of Stan Bowman and then the Panthers go on to win three Cups without Tallon in command)?

    Montreal Canadiens: Pros and Cons

    Montreal didn’t get Matt Duchene or Sebastian Aho in free agency, so they got the next best thing– not overspending on July 1st.

    That’s not to say Duchene and Aho aren’t quality players, but rather just an observation of cap concerns for the Habs with Max Domi as a pending-RFA in July 2020 and the rest of Montreal’s future core (Ryan Poehling, Nick Suzuki, Victor Mete, Cayden Primeau and Jesperi Kotkaniemi) to consider going down the road.

    Granted, Aho could’ve sped the process up a bit if it weren’t for those pesky RFA rights and compensation in the CBA, right Montreal?

    The Canadiens need a legitimate number one center, but General Manager Marc Bergevin has been preoccupied restructuring the defense in the meantime.

    That’s not a bad thing.

    Shea Weber is 34 and under contract through the 2025-26 season, though after 2021-22, his base salary drops to $3.000 million in 2022-23 and $1.000 million from 2023-26 (meaning he could be traded with ease in a few years, despite his $7.857 million cap hit).

    But Karl Alzner and Jeff Petry are both over 30 and have no-trade and/or no-movement clauses in their contracts.

    At least free agent addition, Ben Chiarot, is 28-years-old, but he also carries a no-trade clause as part of his three-year deal.

    How would the Canadiens fail?

    Claude Julien inexplicably reverts back to his old ways and doesn’t play the kids, Carey Price is injured for most of the season and/or Bergevin overcompensates in a trade because of his failure to secure a free agent center.

    Detroit Red Wings: Pros and Cons

    Steve Yzerman has come home and is rightfully the General Manager for the Red Wings, but as we’ve seen in Tampa, his masterplan takes a little time.

    Detroit is four or five years out from being an annual Cup contender, but that doesn’t mean the Red Wings haven’t already sped things up in their rebuild.

    Trading for Adam Erne isn’t a grand-slam, but it does make the average age of the roster a tad younger.

    It also means that the Red Wings now have seven pending-RFAs on their NHL roster and roughly $37.000 million to work with in July 2020.

    How would the Red Wings fail?

    Having Yzerman in the front office at Little Caesars Arena is like adding all of the best toppings to a pizza. The only downside is that leftover pineapple is still on the pizza from all of the no-trade clauses delivered by the last guy.

    Ottawa Senators: Pros and Cons

    The Senators are looking to spend ba-by.

    Just kidding, they don’t plan on being good until 2021, so does that mean starting with the 2020-21 season or the following year in 2021-22?

    But they do have a ton of draft picks stockpiled including two in the 1st round in 2020, three in the 2nd round, one in the 3rd, 4th and 5th, a pair in the 6th and one in the 7th.

    Plus they have roughly $15.600 million in cap space currently and eight players under contract for next season that aren’t on the injured reserve.

    For some reason (Eugene Melnyk) current-RFA Colin White is still unsigned and 38-year-old, Ron Hainsey, was signed in free agency, but at least Cody Ceci is a Maple Leaf now.

    Oh and former Leafs assistant coach D.J. Smith is Ottawa’s head coach now. That’ll show them!

    How would the Senators fail?

    More importantly, how would Ottawa succeed?

    Buffalo Sabres: Pros and Cons

    Pro: The Sabres will probably be better than last season.

    Con: Ralph Krueger is Buffalo’s new head coach and nobody knows what to expect (he went 19-22-7 in the lockout shortened 48-game season with the Edmonton Oilers in 2012-13).

    Pro: Only eight skaters are under contract next season.

    Con: Only eight skaters are under contract next season, including Rasmus Ristolainen and nobody is sure whether or not the club is trying to trade him.

    Pro: Marcus Johansson!

    Con: Jimmy Vesey! (Only cost Buffalo two third round picks over three years to get him.)

    Pro: The average age of the roster is about 26.

    Con: Matt Hunwick is the oldest player at 34-years-old, followed by Carter Hutton at 33 and Vladimir Sobotka at 32.

    Pro: Royal blue in 2020!

    Con: It’s not until 2020.

    How would the Sabres fail?

    If Buffalo actually finishes last in the division, instead of any improvement whatsoever.

  • DTFR Podcast #165- Where’s My Cottage Invite?

    DTFR Podcast #165- Where’s My Cottage Invite?

    Nick takes a little time out of the summer to go over third line signings, jersey number controversy and Ron Francis’ hiring as General Manager of the Seattle expansion franchise.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

  • DTFR Podcast #164- The Free Agency Mega-Hour

    DTFR Podcast #164- The Free Agency Mega-Hour

    Nick, Cap’n and Pete recap the last two weeks of trades and first few days of free agency 2K19.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

  • 2019 NHL Awards Ceremony: DTFR Live Blog

    While everyone awaits the dawn of the 2019-20 season, it’s time to wrap up the 2018-19 season with some wholesome family fun on a Wednesday night in Las Vegas.

    Yes, it’s once again time for the National Hockey League to present its season awards to its members and gather around for an evening of B-list entertainment.

    If– for some odd reason– you’re busy on a Wednesday night in June and can’t get your hockey fix– we’re here for you. Just follow along as we update the list of award winners as they’re announced.

    And if you can tune in on TV, viewers in the United States can catch the 2019 NHL Awards Ceremony live from Las Vegas on NBCSN, while those in Canada can watch on Sportsnet at 8 p.m. ET.

    Calder Memorial Trophy- Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks

    Other Finalists: Jordan Binnington (STL) and Rasmus Dahlin (BUF)

    (best rookie/rookie of the year)

    Art Ross Trophy- Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning

    (presented to the player that led the league in scoring at the end of the regular season, awarded prior to Wednesday night)

    Lady Byng Memorial Trophy- Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers

    Other Finalists: Sean Monahan (CGY) and Ryan O’Reilly (STL)

    (sportsmanship and ability, a.k.a. this player didn’t take a lot of penalties)

    NHL General Manager of the Year Award- Don Sweeney, Boston Bruins

    Other Finalists: Doug Armstrong (STL) and Don Waddell (CAR)

    (best GM)

    King Clancy Memorial Trophy- Jason Zucker, Minnesota Wild

    Other Finalists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (ARI) and Henrik Lundqvist (NYR)

    (humanitarian/volunteering award)

    Ted Lindsay Award- Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning

    Other Finalists: Patrick Kane (CHI) and Connor McDavid (EDM)

    (basically the “M.V.P.” as voted on by the NHLPA, a.k.a. the players)

    James Norris Memorial Trophy- Mark Giordano, Calgary Flames

    Other Finalists: Victor Hedman (TBL) and Brent Burns (SJS)

    (best defender)

    EA SPORTS NHL 20® Cover Athlete- Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs

    Other Finalists: None

    (not actually a curse)

    Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy– Robin Lehner, New York Islanders

    Other Finalists: Nick Foligno (CBJ) and Joe Thornton (SJS)

    (perseverance and dedication to the sport)

    Frank J. Selke Trophy– Ryan O’Reilly, St. Louis Blues

    Other Finalists: Patrice Bergeron (BOS) and Mark Stone (VGK)

    (best defensive forward)

    Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy– Alexander Ovechkin, Washington Capitals

    (presented to the goal scorer who scored the most goals in the season, so this one was already technically awarded before Wednesday night)

    Jack Adams Award– Barry Trotz, New York Islanders

    Other Finalists: Craig Berube (STL) and Jon Cooper (TBL)

    (best head coach)

    Vezina Trophy– Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning

    Other Finalists: Ben Bishop (DAL) and Robin Lehner (NYI)

    (best goaltender)

    William M. Jennings Trophy– Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss, New York Islanders

    (presented to the goaltender(s) who allowed the fewest total goals against in the season, awarded prior to Wednesday night)

    Mark Messier NHL Leadership Award– Wayne Simmonds, Nashville Predators

    Other Finalists: Mark Giordano (CGY) and Justin Williams (CAR)

    (something related to leadership and growing the game that Mark Messier picks)

    Willie O’Ree Community Hero Award– Rico Phillips

    Other Finalists: Anthony Benavides and Tammi Lynch

    (presented to an “individual who– through the game of hockey– has positively impacted his or her community, culture or society[,]” as described by the NHL)

    Hart Memorial Trophy– Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning

    Other Finalists: Sidney Crosby (PIT) and Connor McDavid (EDM)

    (regular season M.V.P.)

    2018-19 Team and 2019 Postseason Awards 

    President’s Trophy– Tampa Bay Lightning

    (best record in the regular season, 2018-19)

    Prince of Wales Trophy– Boston Bruins

    (2019 Eastern Conference Champions)

    Clarence S. Campbell Bowl– St. Louis Blues

    (2019 Western Conference Champions)

    Conn Smythe Trophy– Ryan O’Reilly, St. Louis Blues

    (Stanley Cup Playoffs M.V.P. as determined by members of the Professional Hockey Writers Association)

    Stanley Cup– St. Louis Blues

    (league champion, winner of the 2019 Stanley Cup Final)

  • DTFR Podcast #163- Cap’n Crunch

    DTFR Podcast #163- Cap’n Crunch

    The salary cap isn’t going up as much as everyone hoped. Also, there were plenty of trades, buyouts and extensions handed out in the last week. Nick, Colby, Cap’n and Pete examine each move and pick 2019 NHL Awards winners.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.