Tag Archives: Nashville Preds

November 14 – Day 42 – Holtby vs. the Preds

It’s Tuesday night in the National Hockey League, so you know what that means: keep an eye on your fantasy team, because there’s lots of points to be earned!

There’s eight games on tonight’s schedule in all, starting with Buffalo at Pittsburgh (SN1) at 7 p.m. and two more contests (Columbus at Montréal [RDS/TSN2] and Dallas at Florida) half an hour later. As we cross into the next time zone, three tilts (Washington at Nashville [NBCSN], Philadelphia at Minnesota and Arizona at Winnipeg) drop the puck at 8 p.m. Another time zone, another game: this one is Vegas at Edmonton, which will start at 9 p.m., followed 90 minutes later by Vancouver at Los Angeles, tonight’s nightcap. All times Eastern.

I must admit, if we hadn’t featured the Predators Saturday for the sixth time this season, I’d be very drawn to their matchup with the Capitals. But, to keep things fresh… oh, I can’t do it. Let’s get to Tennessee!

 

There’s more than a few winning streaks going in the NHL right now, and one of them is the 9-5-2 Predators’ eight-point run in their last four games. Though those four wins didn’t come easy (they needed an overtime goal from W Viktor Arvidsson in Los Angeles and a shootout against the Penguins), the fact that three of them came on the road speaks volumes about this hockey team, as does occupying third place in the Central Divsion.

The verdict may still be out on Taylor Swift’s new album, but one thing I know that definitely is – as the kids say nowadays – straight fire is Nashville’s offense. In their last four games played, they’ve scored a whopping 16 goals. That ties Tampa Bay in third place for most tallies in the league since November 3.

These days, doing anything as well as the Lightning is a very good thing, considering they’re the only team in the NHL with 30 points in the standings.

Like you’d expect from someone so clutch as to score an overtime winner, Arvidsson has been at the forefront of this attack with his 3-2-5 totals from the first line since November 3.

But what is really making this Preds offense scary is they’re getting goals from all over the lineup. D P.K. Subban has scored three goals over this run, but his offensive production is expected. Third-liners C Calle Jarnkrok (2-2-4) and W Miikka Salomaki (1-3-4), however? They have been an intimidating force – especially for their spots in the lineup – that has required opposing goaltenders – G Braden Holtby, in this case – to always be on their toes.

Speaking of Holtby, he’s been a major part of his 10-7-1 Capitals both earning third place in the Metropolitan Division and winning two-straight games.

There’s a few defensemen in this league that get called pylons. It’s not a good thing to be a pylon.

Considering the way Holtby has played lately, General Manager Brian MacLellan could save Owner Ted Leonsis some major money by simply wandering down to the local sporting goods store and buying some actual pylons. I mean, who needs defensemen when Holtby has won his last six starts?

That’s right: 10-3-0 Holtby has not lost a single start since allowing five goals October 26 in Vancouver. After that, the 2017 Jennings Trophy-winner has posted a disgusting .944 save percentage for a 1.79 GAA.

To compare, G Henrik Lundqvist, who has also won all of his last six starts to drag the Rangers kicking and screaming into ninth place in the Eastern Conference, has found his victories with only a .912 save percentage and 2.66 GAA.

Though Lundqvist is certainly worthy of all the praise he’s lauded with, there’s a clear superior netminder in this discussion.

As stated before, Holtby will face a tough test tonight against a red hot Predators offense. Any and all help he can get from RW Tom Wilson (2.8 hits-per-game since October 28) and D Brooks Orpik (2.5 blocks-per-game) will surely be appreciated.

As for picking who is going to win this game, I feel it’s important to take into account the six teams Holtby has beaten during this run: Edmonton, the Islanders, Boston, Arizona, Pittsburgh and the Oilers again. Of those, I would argue that only New York and the Penguins are getting consistent scoring from their third line, and two different “Holtbys” appeared in those games.

Against the Penguins Friday, Holtby put in a solid performance and allowed only one goal. But, against the Isles on November 2, he allowed three markers to force a back-and-forth affair that the Caps were fortunate enough to win 4-3.

The Holtby that played against the Islanders cannot show up at Bridgestone Arena tonight if the Caps want to win. All the right gears are meshing right now for the Predators, and I don’t expect them to miss a beat on their own accord.

Given the location of this tilt, I think the Preds can pull out the victory and snap Holbty’s winning streak.


A 7:05 third period hat trick by First Star of the Game F Teuvo Teravainen is all the Carolina Hurricanes needed to beat the Dallas Stars 5-1 at PNC Arena in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day.

Teravainen’s hat trick was necessitated by the third period starting with a 1-1 score. Third Star W Sebastian Aho (Second Star F Jordan Staal and Teravainen) scored his first goal of the season at the 8:07 mark of the first period to give the Canes their first lead of the night, and Dallas leveled the score at the 8:44 mark of the second courtesy of a power play snap shot by RW Alexander Radulov (F Tyler Seguin and F Jamie Benn).

There’s nothing like a power play goal to get a scoring run started. Just ask Teravainen (Staal and Aho), who scored his first goal of the night with a slap shot on the man-advantage 2:39 into the third period. The play started with the puck in a scrum behind G Ben Bishop‘s net. Staal eventually came out the winner and slid a pass towards Teravainen near the left point. After advancing towards the top of the near face-off circle, he ripped his slapper past Bishop’s glove with a little help from an F Elias Lindholm screen.

But Teravainen wasn’t done yet – he wanted some insurance goals too. He scored his second tally of the night 4:12 after his first off assists from D Jaccob Slavin and Staal, and then buried a snapper at the 9:44 mark (Staal and Aho) to set the score at 4-1. While he was sorting his new headgear, Teravainen let F Jeff Skinner (D Trevor van Riemsdyk and Lindholm) score a final insurance goal with with three seconds remaining before the final horn.

G Scott Darling earned the victory after saving 25-of-26 shots faced (.962 save percentage), leaving the loss to Bishop, who saved 23-of-28 (.821).

A home win by the Hurricanes means the 21-16-5 hosts in the DtFR Game of the Day series once again have an advantage – even if it’s only two points – over the visitors.

November 11 – Day 39 – Stanley Cup rematch

First and foremost, I’m sure I speak for all of us here at Down the Frozen River in extending my thanks to each and every veteran on this Veteran’s Day. Whether American, Canadian or any other nationality that values freedom and democracy, we sincerely appreciate you and your service.

To ensure the best of Veteran’s Days, the NHL has scheduled a whopping 12 contests to take place today all around the world.

To start off, there’s two matinees (Edmonton at the New York Rangers and Colorado vs. Ottawa [NHLN/RDS/SN] in Stockholm, Sweden) scheduled for 1 p.m., followed by six (Toronto at Boston [CBC/CITY/NHLN], Buffalo at Montréal [SN/TVAS], Columbus at Detroit, Florida at New Jersey, Minnesota at Philadelphia and Chicago at Carolina) at the usual 7 p.m. starting time. 8 p.m. marks the puck drop of two more contests (the New York Islanders at St. Louis and Pittsburgh at Nashville), and tonight’s co-nightcaps – Vancouver at San Jose (CBC) and Winnipeg at Arizona (SN) – get green-lit at 10 p.m. All times Eastern.

As usual, there’s quite a few matchups worthy of being featured in the DtFR Game of the Day series, but we can only pick one. Let’s see some of our final options:

  • Colorado vs. Ottawa: It’s the second-half of the 2017 NHL Global Series.
  • Toronto at Boston: F Dominic Moore called the TD Garden home only a season ago. Now, he’s back to wearing white at this rink.
  • Buffalo at Montréal: Not only is this an Atlantic Division rivalry, but D Nathan Beaulieu is also returning to his old stomping grounds of five years.
  • Pittsburgh at Nashville: The Penguins return to Bridgestone Arena for the first time since hoisting their fifth Stanley Cup.

Since we didn’t feature the Predators’ visit to PPG Paints Arena at the beginning of the season, there’s no way we can skip this rematch.

Last postseason was a dream come true for the Predators. Though seeded eighth in the conference, they rode an incredible 7-0-1 home record at Bridgestone Arena to their first-ever Clarence S. Campbell Bowl and Stanley Cup Finals berth.

And then Pittsburgh happened.

Though the Penguins needed every second of six games to eliminate Nashville, the Preds suffered the same fate as the Sharks a season before: being forced to watch C Sidney Crosby and the Pens hoist the Cup and skate around the rink while wearing white road sweaters.

The Predators have already had one opportunity to exact revenge when they made their yearly trip to the Steel City on October 7, but it didn’t exactly go well for them. Though they fired 26 shots at G Matthew Murray, he stopped them all to earn what is still his lone shutout on the season. His effort combined with a Penguins attack that managed four goals courtesy of F Evgeni Malkin, F Jake Guentzel, RW Ryan Reaves and D Olli Maatta.

A lot has changed for 8-5-2 Nashville since that game, as it has climbed all the way into fifth place in the Western Conference and is riding a three-game winning streak since falling in San Jose on November 1.

In particular, the Predators have a much better offense than they showed Pittsburgh the last time they met up, as they’ve managed an impressive four goals-per-game during this hot streak. W Viktor Arvidsson specifically has been at the head of this scoring onslaught with his 3-1-4 totals, but I’ve also been impressed by third-line W Miikka Salomaki recently, who has managed 1-2-3 totals with one fewer game played during this stretch after being  a healthy scratch November 3 in Anaheim.

What makes Salomaki’s outburst so unexpected is his 1-2-3 totals in his last two games played comprise his entire 2017-’18 output. Heck, it even comprises all of last season’s contributions too (given, he only played five NHL games last year). It’s highly unlikely that this scoring streak will continue much longer, but the Predators certainly are not going complain about having added firepower for the time being.

As for the 9-7-2 Penguins, they enter this game on the heels of a defeat similar to the one they delivered the Predators last month, as they fell 4-1 in Washington last night. Of course, considering their lowly 2.56 goals-per-game and 3.5 goals against-per-game (both fifth-worst in the league), it’s a surprise the Pens are even in fourth place in the Eastern Conference.

One of Pittsburgh’s biggest problems this season has been the position of backup goaltender, and that will probably come into play tonight since Murray played against the Capitals yesterday.

G Antti Niemi had the position at the start of the season, but his .797 save percentage and 7.5 GAA in only three starts led to him getting waived. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton’s G Casey DeSmith was then given an opportunity to earn his first NHL time, but he was only nominally better, managing a .8 save percentage and 4.29 GAA in 42 minutes.

The plan was originally for him and tonight’s presumed starter G Tristan Jarry to rotate as Pittsburgh’s backup and the Baby Pens’ starter, but DeSmith’s October 29 showing in Winnipeg may put that on hold.

That leads us to backup #3 in Jarry, himself a rookie that has only two NHL starts to his name. The first start occurred this April against the Rangers in the final game of the regular season. Since the game had no impact on the postseason, he was left out to dry behind a halfhearted defense to allow G Marc-Andre Fleury rest. He lost his NHL debut 3-2 on an .88 save percentage.

Fast-forward to November 2 when the Penguins were in Calgary.  Though he still has yet to earn his first win with the senior team, Jarry forced overtime with a much improved .941 save percentage. It seems that was enough to impress Head Coach Mike Sullivan, as he has yet to be sent towards Dunder Mifflin headquarters.

If the Penguins want to win, Jarry’s third career NHL start must look more like his second than his first, and his defense would be wise to do all they can to keep shots away from his crease. Considering Pittsburgh allows 31.3 shots against-per-game, that means more players are going to need to follow the lead of Reaves – whose 49 hits top the team – and D Ian Cole, who manages 1.8 blocks-per-game.

Unfortunately for Penguins fans, I simply don’t know if that’s going to happen. Everything – specifically a high-flying offense against a rookie goaltender – is leaning the Predators’ way in this contest, and that’s without taking into account the revenge Smashville so desperately wants to impart. Pittsburgh just might be in line for a second drubbing in as many nights.


Thanks to First Star of the Game RW Mark Stone‘s overtime goal, the Ottawa Senators beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-3 at the Ericsson Globe in Stockholm, Sweden in yesterday’s back-and-forth DtFR Game of the Day.

This contest followed a nice pattern, as three goals were struck in the first period, two in the second and a final regulation marker in the third.

W Nail Yakupov (Second Star F Alexander Kerfoot and F Colin Wilson) got the scoring started by potting a power play snap shot 8:16 into the contest, but Colorado’s advantage lasted only 20 seconds before Third Star D Fredrik Claesson (F Mike Hoffman and Swede D Erik Karlsson) – a Stockholm native – scored to level the game. Finally, Stone (Stockholmare D Johnny Oduya and D Chris Wideman) tipped-in a goal with 4:50 remaining in the period to give the Senators a 2-1 advantage going into the first intermission.

The game was tied once again at the 9:41 mark of the second period courtesy of a Kerfoot (W Blake Comeau and D Samuel Girard) tip-in, and it remained level for 3:40 before F Chris DiDomenico (D Dion Phaneuf and F Tom Pyatt) claimed a one-goal lead for Ottawa once again. That 3-2 score held into the second break.

For those wondering, the only event that shows up on the box score involving the recently-traded F Matt Duchene occurred in the middle period when he was tripped by W Gabriel Bourque. The Senators could not convert either this nor their only other power play opportunity of the game.

The lone goal of the final frame was struck with 7:07 remaining in regulation. F Nathan MacKinnon (RW Mikko Rantanen and Stockholmare LW Gabriel Landeskog) is the lucky Av to take credit, as he leveled the game at three-all to force three-on-three overtime.

Overtime didn’t even last a full minute before Stone (C Derick Brassard and Karlsson) bagged his 11th goal of the season to earn the bonus point for the Sens. After resetting the play in the neutral zone to get Ottawa onside, Karlsson drove towards G Semyon Varlamov‘s net before dropping a pass to Brassard in the right face-off circle. Instead of firing the puck, he slid a quick pass across the slot to Stone, who buried a snapper on a gaping cage to end the tilt.

G Craig Anderson earned the victory after saving 16-of-19 shots faced (.842 save percentage), leaving the loss to Varlamov, who saved 28-of-32 (.875).

Since the Senators were officially the road team in today’s DtFR Game of the Day, they helped visitors in the series pull within one point of the 19-15-5 hosts.

November 3 – Day 31 – Campbell Bowl rematch

This had better be an exciting weekend of hockey, because Friday’s slate of games is extremely light. The action doesn’t start until 9 p.m. Eastern time when New Jersey visits Edmonton (NHLN/SN/TVAS), which is followed an hour later by tonight’s nightcap: Nashville at Anaheim.

There’s little more fun to feature than a rematch of last season’s playoffs, and that’s exactly what we get at the Honda Center this evening.

 

Who can forget last May’s thrilling Conference Finals series between these clubs? Even though C Ryan Getzlaf and the Ducks were the lone Western Conference team to escape Bridgestone Arena’s crazy atmosphere with a victory last postseason (a 3-2 overtime win in Game 4 to level the series at two-apiece), they could do nothing to break through G Pekka Rinne only two days later at the Honda Center, and even less to stop C Colton Sissons‘ Game 6 hat trick to send the Preds to their first-ever Stanley Cup Final.

And even though that was last season, don’t think for even one minute that the Ducks aren’t interested in exacting a little revenge against Nashville for stealing home ice away from them.

If 6-5-1 Anaheim wants to do that, it’ll need to improve on October’s limited chemistry. So far, the Ducks have struggled to find a good rhythm due to D Kevin Bieksa, W Patrick Eaves, D Cam Fowler, Getzlaf and F Ryan Kesler all being on injured reserve.

Yes, you read that correctly: all five of those players are injured right now. With the exception of Eaves, who was a trade deadline acquisition last February, all of those players have been staples of the Ducks’ lineup since at least the 2015-’16 season.

Getzlaf’s absence is certainly the most notable, as he’s been a member of the club since its Mighty Ducks days. If you put much stock in Hockey Reference’s point shares statistic, Getzlaf has been responsible for an average of 7.6 points in the standings per season since his 2005-’06 debut (to compare, Anaheim’s leading skater in point shares last season was Fowler, who individually accounted for 8.3 of the Ducks’ 105 points). Perhaps it’s no coincidence that Anaheim is only 2-3-1 when Getzlaf is not in the lineup this year.

Want something a little bit more tangible? Getzlaf has scored .95 points-per-game for his entire career. Considering Anaheim has managed only one goal in three of the four contests he’s missed, I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch to assume the captain could have provided a spark in at least one of those games.

Meanwhile, the Predators have had an even poorer start to the season with fewer excuses than the Ducks. C Nick Bonino and D Ryan Ellis are both on injured reserve, but I don’t think that’s the main source of Nashville’s problems.

Instead, I point to an anemic offense that has only managed 2.33 goals-per-game on 29 shots-per-game, both rates that are third-worst in the NHL.

Scoring was all W Viktor Arvidsson and F Ryan Johansen could do last season, as both registered an impressive 61 points to lead Nashville’s attack (Arvidsson won the goals-scored tiebreaker with his 31-30-61 totals). This year, they’ve combined for only 11 points – a total C Steven Stamkos and his 24 points are laughing at from atop the Art Ross Trophy leader board.

Last season, shooting the puck like it was going out of style was a patented trademark of this Predators club, as they fired 31.2 shots-per-game to rank sixth in the statistic. Considering Arvidsson leads the team in shots (he’s fired 43 in 12 games played), I’d bank on his .07 shooting percentage back towards last season’s 12.6 percent sooner than later.

Perhaps it’s no surprise that F Filip Forsberg, who has fired 32 shots this season to rank third on the team, is leading the squad with his 8-5-13 totals (yes, he’s rocking a wildly impressive .25 shooting percentage). I expect that if more Predators follow his lead – followed by linemates converging on the crease like a basketball team grabbing at a rebound – and fire the puck more often, Nashville should start seeing improvements.

Neither of these clubs are bad teams, they’re just not playing well right now. With the Predators riding a two-game losing skid right now and the Ducks being at home, I like Anaheim to pull this game out and earn two points.


In yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day, the Washington Capitals held on to beat the New York Islanders 4-3 at Capital One Arena.

With both clubs scoring at least one goal each period, Washington won this game in the first period, in one school of thought, by tickling the twine twice. The Caps were the first to get on the board courtesy of D Taylor Chorney‘s (F Chandler Stephenson and First Star of the Game C Lars Eller) first goal of the season, struck 5:55 into the contest. The Islanders’ Sandwich Line answered the goal 7:06 later when C John Tavares (Second Star F Anders Lee and F Josh Bailey) buried a power play wrist shot. The final goal of the period belonged to Eller (Stephenson and D Madison Bowey), who scored a slap shot with 3:41 remaining before the first intermission to set the score at 2-1.

With another power play tally – this time by Lee (Bailey and C Mathew Barzal) – with 3:42 remaining in the second period, New York once again leveled the game, but this tie lasted even less time than the first as RW Alex Chiasson (Third Star D John Carlson and F Jay Beagle) buried a slapper only 12 seconds later to reclaim a 3-2 advantage for Washington.

Another new period, another opportunity for the Islanders to level the game. With his second goal of the night, Lee (D Thomas Hickey and Tavares) forced another tie seven minutes into the third period.

The game remained at three-all until only 3:21 remained in regulation. That’s when Eller (RW Tom Wilson and Carlson) scored his game-winning snap shot. Thanks to a quick leading pass into the neutral zone from Carlson to set up a breakaway opportunity for the Capitals, Eller had a clear shot from the top of the right face-off circle on G Jaroslav Halak. With that opportunity, he fired a snapper glove-side to beat the netminder to the near post.

Though the Sandwich Line took two more shifts to try to level the game in the remaining time, they could not beat G Braden Holtby to force overtime.

If the NHL gave out four stars, this game’s would absolutely be Holtby. Though he did give up three goals, he saved 35-of-38 shots faced (.921 save percentage) to earn the victory. That left the loss to Halak, who saved 15-of-19 (.789).

The Capitals’ home victory snapped a two-game winning streak by visiting teams in the DtFR Game of the Day series, giving hosts a 17-10-4 record that is eight points better than the visitors’.

October 27 – Day 24 – They’re at it again

Thank goodness that work is finally done for the week. Time to sit back and take in the weekend’s hockey!

The weekend starts early in Vegas, as a 3 p.m. local start time against Colorado (TVAS) means a 6 p.m. puck drop on the East Coast. The usual starting time of 7 p.m. brings with it two contests (Ottawa at New Jersey [RDS2] and Winnipeg at Columbus), followed by St. Louis at Carolina half an hour later. Nashville pays a visit to Chicago (NHLN/TVAS) at 8:30 p.m., with tonight’s nightcap – Dallas at Calgary (SN360) – waiting until 9 p.m. to get underway.

All times Eastern unless otherwise noted.

I was going to complain about featuring the second Nashville at Chicago matchup of a season that is not even a month old, but upon remembering how competitive and entertaining their first meeting was, there’s no other choice! To the Windy City we go!

 

Now, with this being the second time in two weeks that this matchup has been featured, I’m sure I don’t need to rehash how the Predators swept the Hawks in four games by a combined score of 13-3 that included two shutouts. I’m sure I also don’t need to go over how the eighth-seeded Preds went on to win the Clarence S. Campbell Bowl.

Oh, I guess I just did anyways. As a fan of one of Chicago’s rivals, I guess I simply couldn’t help myself.

Whether or not that playoff elimination still motivates the Blackhawks against Nashville (I’d bet the house it does), we have more current data to help us preview and predict this game.

For starters, we know that the Hawks needed overtime to secure a 2-1 victory at the United Center the last time these squads met on October 14. You can read a slightly more in-depth recap here, but the main thing to know is, with the help of LW Scott Hartnell and D P.K. Subban, F Filip Forsberg got Nashville on the board late in the second period before F Patrick Sharp (F John Hayden and D Cody Franson) leveled the game in the closing six minutes of regulation and W Brandon Saad (F Patrick Kane and D Duncan Keith) cleaned things up in overtime.

If only everything in life was as simple as a one-sentence game recap.

That low scoring affair proved to be a sign of things to come, as both teams have scored only a total of nine goals in four games played since departing the United Center that Saturday night, tying them for the fourth-lowest goal production in that time span.

For Chicago, the downturn in scoring has been no fault of Kane’s. Showtime has averaged a point-per-game in those four games, including three goals. The Predators have also had their own offensive standouts in Forsberg and D Roman Josi, as both have 2-3-5 totals since October 15.

Instead, Chicago and Nashville have continued their strong defensive efforts to find wins.

The Predators in particular have been studs at keeping opponents off the scoreboard of late. In the past two weeks, they’ve allowed only seven goals against in four games, an effort that’s overshadowed only by Tampa Bay’s 10 goals against in six games played in the same stretch of time.

It’s no secret how good Smashville’s defense is, but D Alexei Emelin has been playing at another level since his last visit to Chicago. He’s blocked two shots-per-game to lead the team while also averaging 3.3 hits-per-contest. Through his bold leadership while D Ryan Ellis is recovering from an offseason knee surgery, the Predators have allowed only 29.8 shots against-per-game for the entire season, the fourth-best mark in the NHL.

Meanwhile, Chicago’s (t)eighth-best 2.6 goals against-per-game is due to the play of only one man: G Corey Crawford. Never before has Crawford posted a season save percentage over .93 percent, but he’s currently in possession of a .936 save rate that is second only to G Jonathan Quick‘s unbelievable .944. Considering the Blackhawks’ defense allows a 35.6 shots against-per-game that is second-worst in the league, Crawford being at the top of his game may be an integral piece to the success of this team both tonight and for the remainder of the campaign.

Even though the Blackhawks have a decent 3-1-1 record at home this season – including their victory over Nashville – I’m actually leaning towards the Preds taking this game. Thanks to Emelin, Nashville looks like it’s finally clicking without Ellis and will be a tough out for a Chicago team struggling to score.


In yesterday’s preview, I predicted a barn-burner would go the Senators’ way. In yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day, the Ottawa Senators beat the Philadelphia Flyers 5-4 at the Canadian Tire Centre.

There’s no better way to start a game than with three unanswered goals in the first period. That’s exactly what Ottawa did, starting with D Dion Phaneuf‘s (C Filip Chlapik and F Chris DiDomenico) power play slap shot only 91 seconds into the game (what D Brandon Manning was doing slashing DiDomenico only 36 seconds into the game, I’ll never know). D Mark Borowiecki (F Mike Hoffman and First Star of the Game C Jean-Gabriel Pageau) scored his first goal of the season 8:19 later to give Ottawa a 2-0 lead, followed by Pageau (Third Star D Erik Karlsson) burying one of his patented shorthanded wrist shots with 6:32 remaining in the frame to further extend the Sens’ advantage.

Whatever Head Coach Dave Hakstol screamed during the intermission certainly worked, because the Flyers were able to respond with two goals of their own in the second period. RW Jakub Voracek (Second Star C Sean Couturier and D Ivan Provorov) finally stashed his first goal of the season with 5:30 remaining in the second period, followed by F Travis Konecny (D Radko Gudas) only 53 seconds later to pull Philly back within a 3-2 deficit. Much to the delight of the home fans, RW Mark Stone (F Ryan Dzingel and Karlsson) was able to bury a backhanded shot with 2:23 remaining in the period to reclaim a two-goal advantage for the Senators going into the second intermission.

With 9:27 remaining in regulation, F Tom Pyatt (C Nate Thompson and Pageau) scored what proved to be a very important goal. Though Pageau earned the hockey assist, this breakaway goal was almost entirely set up by Thompson. After receiving Pageau’s pass at his own blue line, Thompson immediately connected with Pyatt in the neutral zone, who was screaming up the far boards towards G Michal Neuvirth. With no help, D Shayne Gostisbehere was forced to eliminate the passing lane between Pyatt and Thompson, leaving the forward in a one-on-one situation with the netminder. Pyatt didn’t miss on that opportunity, beating Neuvirth with a pinger off the right post

Pyatt’s tally ended up converting from a brace into the game-winner due to the tremendous comeback effort by the Flyers. With 4:42 remaining in regulation, Provorov (Konecny and Couturier) buried a slapper on G Craig Anderson to pull Philadelphia back within a 5-3 deficit. The comeback became even more realistic when Couturier (Gostisbehere and Voracek) scored a deflection to set the score at 5-4 with 106 seconds remaining before the final horn. But, even with Neuvirth pulled for the extra attacker, the Flyers could not find a leveling goal.

Anderson earned the victory after saving 36-of-40 shots faced (.9 save percentage), leaving the loss to Neuvirth, who saved 23-of-28 (.821).

Home teams in the DtFR Game of the Day are a win away from the business week streak, as they’ve won the last four games. That elevates their record to 14-6-4, which is a solid 10 points better than the visitors.

October 17 – Day 14 – The Avs are winners?

Tuesdays are almost always full of hockey action, and tonight is no different.

There’s 11 games to be played this evening, starting with a trio (Pittsburgh at the New York Rangers [TVAS], Florida at Philadelphia and Toronto at Washington) at 7 p.m. and another two (Tampa Bay at New Jersey [NBCSN] and Vancouver at Ottawa) half an hour later. 8 p.m. marks the puck drop of two more contests (Colorado at Nashville and Columbus at Winnipeg), while Arizona at Dallas waits 30 minutes before finding its green light. Carolina at Edmonton gets the West involved at 9 p.m., followed by Buffalo at Vegas (SN360) at 10 p.m. and Montréal at San Jose – tonight’s nightcap – half an hour after that. All times Eastern.

There’s a few games that stick out to me for various reasons…

  • Toronto at Washington: It’s an Eastern Conference Quarterfinals rematch, and a good one at that – Washington needed all seven games to advance.
  • Colorado at Nashville: After eight years in Tennessee, F Colin Wilson now finds himself a member of the Avalanche.
  • Montréal at San Jose: D David Schlemko could make his season debut tonight against the club he spent last year playing for.

Though Wilson was never necessarily the most important player for Nashville, I want to feature the Avalanche before they begin their fall to the bottom of the league table. We’re off to Tennessee for the second time in six days!

 

It may be early in the season, but I don’t think that’s stopping Avs fans from celebrating their 4-2-0 club being in second place in the Central Division.

In an even bigger surprise, Colorado is finding its success by being a defensive-minded team. Last season, the Avalanche allowed a league-worst 3.37 goals against-per-game, but that number has shrunk to a (t)third-best 2.17 through the first two weeks of 2017-’18 play.

You might think it’s G Semyon Varlamov standing on his head to earn these victories, but you wouldn’t necessarily be right. Though his .944 save percentage and 1.76 GAA are both top-six in the NHL among goaltenders with at least two starts to their credit, it’s actually been the defense playing in front of him that has played an even bigger role.

So far this season, the Avs have allowed only 30.7 shots against-per-game, the ninth-best effort in the league. D Mark Barberio and D Erik Johnson have both been major parts of that effort, as they both average more than two blocks per game, and F Matt Duchene has also made a positive impact with his team-leading eight takeaways.

And everybody thought knew he showed up to training camp with a bad attitude.

Second place is the minimum position many Predators fans predicted their club would be in after their first-ever trip to the Stanley Cup Finals, but once again this talented squad is taking its time getting into regular season gear.

When the Preds are at their best, they play one of the best power plays in the game. Spearheaded by F Filip Forsberg‘s 4-1-5 totals on the man-advantage alone (5-2-7 overall), Nashville has managed a 29.2 percent power play success rate – the third-best in the NHL. Considering Colorado plays one of the worst penalty kills in the league, this might be a wild night if the special teams take to the ice multiple times.

Going off preseason predictions, it should be no question that Nashville should win this game easily. But, considering its 2.8 goals-per-game offense ranks (t)12th-worst in the league, that victory may not come as easily. I expect a close game, but the home fans should still leave happy.


It all came down to a deciding third period at Little Caesars Arena in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day, as the visiting Tampa Bay Lightning were able to earn a 3-2 victory over the Detroit Red Wings.

Some evenly matched games feature back-and-forth scoring, and others feature only one deciding goal. In this one, Tampa had a strong first period, while the Wings matched that performance in the second.

Third Star of the Game C Tyler Johnson started the scoring 9:15 into the contest by scoring a shorthanded wrist shot, followed by First Star RW Nikita Kucherov (D Victor Hedman and C Steven Stamkos) on a power play wrister only 101 seconds later to set the score at 2-0.

But like I said before, Detroit had all the answers in the second period. First up was Second Star W Justin Abdelkader, who buried an unassisted wrister 2:30 into the frame to pull the Wings back within a tally. D Mike Green (Abdelkader and F Tomas Tatar) completed the comeback with 3:58 remaining in the period, leveling the game at two-all with his first marker of the season.

He’ll be the first to tell you it was a lucky goal, but Kucherov (Stamkos and F Vladislav Namestnikov) was able to score the game-winning goal 107 seconds into the third period. D Trevor Daley had tried to clear the puck out of his zone, but it was intercepted by Namestnikov before it reached the near point and shoved along the boards to Stamkos, who was outside the trapezoid to G Jimmy Howard‘s stick side. Since Namestnikov continued to crash the crease, Stamkos returned the pass for him to attempt a shot, but the netminder was able to reject the offering. Fortunately for the Bolts, Kucherov moved in for the rebound and barely tapped the puck under Howard and into the net.

G Andrei Vasilevskiy earned the win after saving 29-of-31 shots faced (.935 save percentage), leaving the loss to Howard, who saved 23-of-26 (.885).

Tampa Bay’s victory snaps a two-game winning streak by the 8-5-1 home teams, but the roadies still trail by three points in the DtFR Game of the Day series.

October 14 – Day 11 – Sweep, sweep revenge

It’s another great day (well, night, technically speaking) in the world of hockey, as there’s a whopping 14 games on the schedule.

With no matinees, we have to wait until 7 p.m. to get the action started. It turns out to be well worth the wait, as there’s six contests (Carolina at Winnipeg [CITY/SN1], Toronto at Montréal [CBC/NHLN/TVAS], St. Louis at Tampa Bay, New Jersey at the New York Rangers, Washington at Philadelphia and Florida at Pittsburgh) on tap with another pair (Colorado at Dallas and Columbus at Minnesota) an hour later. 8:30 p.m. marks the puck drop for Nashville at Chicago, followed half an hour later by Boston at Arizona, and then the West Coast gets involved with two games (Calgary at Vancouver [CITY/SN1] and Ottawa at Edmonton [CBC/TVAS]) at 10 p.m. and another couple (Buffalo at Los Angeles and the New York Islanders at San Jose) 30 minutes after. All times Eastern.

There’s a good reason to watch almost every fixture on tap this evening. Here’s a few I’ve thought of…

  • Toronto at Montréal: This is way more than an Original Six rivalry.
  • New Jersey at New York: Speaking of rivalries… Battle of the Hudson River, anyone?
  • Washington at Philadelphia: Is there a team in Pennsylvania that doesn’t have a rivalry with the Capitals?
  • Nashville at Chicago: If anyone has forgotten the Predators made the Stanley Cup Finals last season, it’s definitely not the Hawks.
  • Calgary at Vancouver: It’s rivalry night in Western Canada.

We’ve made an unfortunate habit of repeating teams rather quickly lately, but there’s one must-watch game that sticks out above the rest.

 

Just in case you’ve forgotten, the Predators’ run to the finals began in Chicago, where they beat the Blackhawks in a tight 1-0 game. Then they won again, this time by a much more commanding 5-0.

And then the series went to the Bridgestone Center, where the Preds won 3-2 in a tight Game 3 that required overtime. And, of course, Smashville completed the sweep with a dominating 4-1 victory in Game 4.

But you knew all that.

Though I needed to look up the scores to those games, I’ll bet G Corey Crawford, Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews and every other hockey player from the Windy City can recite all those numbers without blinking, and will be able to until they reach their graves.

It’s that burning desire for revenge that makes this game so exciting. It’s that rare instance where, no matter what any coach says otherwise, what happened last year may actually have an impact on how tonight plays out.

Scoring only three goals last postseason – including getting shutout twice – the Blackhawks will be expected to show no mercy this evening when they have the puck on their stick. Though the usual culprits of Kane and Toews are always important to defend especially well, Nashville will also have its hands full with prodigal son Brandon Saad and 23-year-old Ryan Hartman.

Led by Hartman’s eight points (2-6-8 totals), those top four Blackhawks forwards have combined for 12 goals and 16 assists for 28 total points. Add in the fact that the other two players that complete the top two lines, Artem Anisimov and Richard Panik, are no slouches either and the Predators’ defense will certainly be busy.

Similar to Chicago wanting to exact revenge, the Predators will try to use this game to really get back into the groove they found last postseason.

It took Nashville a couple games to get their skates under them this season, as they started with an 0-2-0 record. But, since then, the Predators have won two-straight, most recently a 4-1 victory over Dallas Thursday.

A year after their defense was all the rage, it’s been the Preds’ offensive prowess that has really stolen the limelight so far this season – even if a lot of that offense has come from a defenseman. Currently, both Filip Forsberg and P.K. Subban spearhead the team with six points apiece, more than enough to lead the club towards an 11th-best 2.9 goals-per-game.

But it’s truly a full effort from the entire top line that is making this club tick right now. With a second line consisting of Scott Hartnell, Nick Bonino and Pontus Aberg (they’ve combined for only five points), the Forsberg-Ryan Johansen-Viktor Arvidson ensemble that has already managed 13 points is going to be expected to produce until the former builds more chemistry.

There’s a lot more to this game than what’s on paper – unless of course you’re reading a recap from their playoff series last season. That being said, I feel pretty confident in picking the Blackhawks to take two points at home.


The offensive powerhouse that is the Washington Capitals struck Newark in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day, as the Caps beat the New Jersey Devils 5-2.

Both squads needed a 20 minute warmup to start the game as only one goal was scored. Unfortunately for the home fans, that goal was struck by Second Star of the Game T.J. Oshie (First Star Nicklas Backstrom), as he buried a snap shot with 5:11 remaining in the frame to give Washington a lead it would not yield.

Following intermission, Alex Ovechkin (Backstrom and John Carlson) scored his NHL-leading ninth goal of the season with a power play wrist shot 8:01 after resuming play. Though Taylor Hall (Third Star Kyle Palmieri and Will Butcher) was able to get the Devils on the board with 3:32 remaining in the frame with a power play goal, neither of those tallies proved to be the biggest of the period.

Instead, the Capitals were able to once again register a late-period goal, but this one proved even more important than the last: this one proved to be the game-winner. It was struck courtesy of Jakub Vrana (Devante Smith-Pelly and Evgeny Kuznetsov), his first of the season.

The play started behind G Cory Schneider‘s net when D Andy Greene misplayed a pass from D Steven Santini. Kuznetsov collected “the loose biscuit,” as it was described by play-by-play announcer Steve Cangialosi, at the goal line before advancing it along the far boards toward the point. He passed to Smith-Pelly in the middle of the zone, who fired a shot towards Schneider. But, before the netminder could make play on the puck, Vrana deflected it five-hole with the shaft of his stick.

Palmieri (Damon Severson and John Moore) did pull Jersey back within a goal 53 seconds into the third period, but Oshie (Backstrom and Kuznetsov) and Backstrom (Ovechkin and Oshie) both scored power play goals to quell any chance of a Devils comeback.

G Braden Holtby earned the victory after saving 21-of-23 shots faced (.913 save percentage), leaving the loss to Schneider, who saved 23-of-28 (.821).

With Washington’s victory, road teams in the DtFR Game of the Day have now pulled within two points of the 6-4-1 home clubs.

October 12 – Day Nine – The Kevin Peter Hall game

If you have no idea who the title is referring to, maybe today’s selection can help.

Action is slightly delayed this evening, as our first two contests (Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay [SN360/TVAS] and St. Louis at Florida) don’t drop the puck until 7:30 p.m. Dallas pays a visit to Nashville at 8 p.m., followed by Minnesota at Chicago half an hour later. Another pair of contests (Winnipeg at Vancouver and Detroit at Arizona) get the green light at 10 p.m., with tonight’s nightcap – Buffalo at San Jose – getting underway 30 minutes later. All times Eastern.

There’s two games from that selection that have drawn my eye. The Wild-Blackhawks rivalry is always fun to take in, but I’m surprisingly more drawn to a meeting between between two 1-2-0 clubs.

 

Still can’t figure it out? Hall was the person in the Predator suit in the first two Predator movies. He’s the star of Predator!

Sure, I could have gone with Arnold Schwarzenegger, but that would have been too easy.

Anyways…

Coming off an offseason of high expectations, both of these teams had a tough opening week to their campaigns. They both lost their opening two games (including an embarrassing 4-0 loss by the Predators to Pittsburgh in a rematch of the Stanley Cup Finals) before winning their contests on Tuesday.

Starting with visiting Dallas, this was supposed to be an offense that eclipsed that of 2015-’16, yet the Stars have averaged only 2.33 goals-per-game to start the season ([t]third-worst in the league).

Part of the problem has been the goaltending they’ve squared off against. Both Jake Allen (.93 save percentage and 2.58 GAA) and Marc-Andre Fleury (.963 save percentage and 1.32 GAA) have yet to lose a game in three starts and – especially Fleury – have been among the league’s best.

Even though the super line of Jamie BennTyler SeguinAlexander Radulov didn’t find the back of the net, Dallas proved what it is truly capable of Tuesday against G Petr Mrazek. With the exception of the top power play unit scoring late in the first period, the middle two lines began flexing their muscles by scoring the remaining three goals (shh, no one needs to know that C Martin Hanzal‘s first goal of the year was an empty netter).

While the offense assumes its form, it’s been the superb play of G Ben Bishop that has been keeping the Stars competitive in all their games. So far this season he’s posted a .955 save percentage and 1.15 GAA, including what could have been a shutout if he hadn’t been forced from the Vegas game on opening night.

Of the numerous signings made across the league, few improved a team as immensely as this one did for Dallas. Add in the fact that the Stars also added D Marc Methot to a formerly flimsy defensive corps and you find a Dallas team ready to shoot for the stars (that was so lame).

As for the Predators, they’re just trying to live up to qualifying for last year’s Stanley Cup Finals. No big deal, right?

That postseason effort was largely dependent on a defensive corps that also had a scoring touch as golden as their sweaters, and maybe it’s the absence of that flair that has held Nashville back so far this young season. Beyond D P.K. Subban and his four assists, only two other blue liners have contributed on offense. Even more noticeable is that none of those defensive points are goals.

It would seem D Ryan Ellis‘ absence is certainly being felt, as he posted 16-22-38 totals last season for .54 points-per-game. He would have notched at least one point by now.

And as dependable as Bishop has been for the Stars, G Pekka Rinne has been below-average to star the season. He’s managed only an .869 save percentage for an atrocious 4.16 GAA – and he didn’t even play in the four-goal loss to Pittsburgh.

With such an offensively-minded D-corps, elite play from Rinne is an absolute necessity. To put it bluntly, forcing the defense to actually focus on playing defense (that’s not a knock on this group, but we all know they’re almost always planning their next attack) takes such a major weapon away from this Nashville team. Head Coach Peter Laviolette cannot afford for this solid team to be in the wrong year of Rinne’s “good year, bad year” routine.

If anything is starting to go right for the Predators, it’s their power play. The man-advantage, specifically the top unit, played an integral role in the Preds’ comeback win Tuesday from a 4-3 deficit in the third period. Nashville has converted 31.3 percent of its man-advantages, which ties with the Rangers for the second-best effort in the NHL.

Though it was great to get that win over Philadelphia, I still don’t think all the Preds are mentally back from summer vacation. Having said that, I’m leaning towards Dallas pulling off the victory tonight, whether the game is over after 60 minutes or requires a shootout.


The machine that is the Pittsburgh Penguins seems to have rediscovered its groove, as they beat the Washington Capitals 3-2 at the Verizon Center in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day.

The Penguins employed a goal-per-period strategy last night that the Caps nearly matched, failing to score in the first period. Because of that, does that make D Kris Letang‘s (W Bryan Rust and First Star of the Game RW Patric Hornqvist) first goal of the season, a power play wrist shot 5:22 into the game, the game-winner?

Unfortunately for Letang, we all know the answer to that question is technically ‘no.’ Sorry, buddy.

Pittsburgh registered its second power play goal of the night 8:20 into the second period, courtesy of Hornqvist (W Tom Kuhnhackl and C Sidney Crosby), another first-time goalscorer for the 2017-’18 season. The Penguins almost took a two-goal advantage into the second intermission, but Second Star D Christian Djoos (C Lars Eller and W Brett Connolly) sneaked a slap shot past G Matthew Murray with 53 seconds remaining in the frame to pull Washington back within a goal. Just like the goalscorers before him, Djoos’ marker was his first of the season, but this one was extra special: tonight was also his NHL debut.

Apparently Head Coach Mike Sullivan was none too pleased about Djoos’ late marker, as Third Star W Conor Sheary (D Justin Schultz and D Olli Maatta) provided what proved to be the true game-winner 38 seconds into the third period.

The play truly started with five seconds remaining in the second period when RW Alex Chiasson earned himself a seat in the penalty box for getting caught holding D Brian Dumoulin. As far as action on the ice is concerned, the scoring play began with Maatta at the blue line. Seeing Schultz undefended – due to the Capitals being shorthanded – in the face-off circle to G Braden Holtby‘s right, he passed to his fellow defenseman who quickly centered a pass to Sheary waiting in Holtby’s crease. Though the 25-year-old began falling while performing his tip-in, the redirection was just enough to beat Holtby to the post.

W Alex Ovechkin (Djoos and C Nicklas Backstrom) did pull Washington back within a goal with 7:09 remaining in regulation, but neither he, F T.J. Oshie nor any of the other Capitals could complete the comeback in the remaining time.

Murray earned the victory after saving 20-of-22 shots faced (.909), leaving the loss to Holby, who saved 33-of-36 (.917).

Pittsburgh’s road victory snaps what was a four-game winning streak for the 5-3-1 home teams in the DtFR Game of the Day series. That being said, hosts still have a two-point advantage over roadies in the competition.

Nashville Predators 2017-’18 Season Preview

Nashville Predators

41-29-12, 94 points, fourth in the Central Division

Eliminated in the Stanley Cup Finals by Pittsburgh

Additions: C Nick Bonino, D Alexei Emelin, LW Scott Hartnell

Subtractions: D Matt Carle (retired), F Vernon Fiddler (retired), C Mike Fisher (retired), D Brad Hunt (signed with VGK), LW Mike Liambas (signed with ANH), G Marek Mazanec (signed with Slovan), W James Neal (drafted by VGK), F Colin Wilson (traded to COL)

Offseason Analysis: Let’s get this out of the way: yes, the Predators can make a second-straight Stanley Cup Finals appearance.

Oh, you’re expecting something more in-depth?

Usually this is where we talk signings and other roster moves, but I think the biggest focal point for Nashville has been a constant member of its squad since 2008, a player that’s been among the top-nine at his position (measured by save percentage and GAA) since starting regularly.

In 2012-’13, G Pekka Rinne posted a solid .91 save percentage for a 2.43 GAA, but followed up that performance a season later with .902 and 2.77 numbers. 2014-’15 was a return to form for the Finn, earning himself .923 and 2.18 marks, but ’15-’16 was another lapse in play (.908, 2.48).

That brings us to last year’s performance to earn Nashville’s first-ever Campbell Cup. 31-19-9 Rinne posted impressive .918 save percentage and 2.42 GAA efforts, the (t)seventh- and (t)ninth-best performances, respectively, among netminders with 50+ starts.

What’s alarming about this not-very-well-hidden pattern is we’re coming upon an even-numbered playoff year. Last season was undoubtedly a good performance, so is this recurrence a forecast for this campaign or can Rinne buck the trend?

The answer to that question lies in Nashville’s defense, and what a corps it has in Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm and co. Not only is this defense more than capable of providing an offensive presence (Nashville tied San Jose with 181 points from defensemen last season, tops in the league), but they were also adept at limiting Rinne’s workload. He faced an average of 30.1 shots-per-game, tying for 13th-fewest in the NHL.

No discussion about Nashville’s defense is complete without acknowledging Ryan Ellis’ offseason knee surgery that has him sidelined until January. He plays a vital role on this defense, having posted 16-22-38 totals and a +17 rating last season to go with his team-leading 137 blocks and 37 takeaways (second-most among Predators defensemen).

Providing only .19 points-per-game during his six seasons in Montréal, Emelin is no replacement for Ellis’ scoring contributions, but he’ll hold his own blocking shots having rejected 127 last season. Besides, Emelin likes to make his presence known in other ways than scoring – specifically by providing a nasty physical defensive force.

Considering he’s in a place nicknamed “Smashville,” he’ll fit in beautifully.

Offensively, Nashville signed two-time Stanley Cup champion Bonino from Pittsburgh (Like I always say: “If you can’t beat ‘em, sign their players.”) and Hartnell to replace Fisher and Neal, respectively.

This is Hartnell’s second stint in Nashville after being its first-round pick in the 2000 draft and wearing gold through the 2006-’07 season. Posting only .47 points-per-game last season, 2016-’17 was a down year for the 16-year veteran, so his one-year deal is relatively low-risk, high-reward for a club with over $6 million in cap space – especially considering youngsters Pontus Aberg and Kevin Fiala exist.

Instead, I’m intrigued by Bonino’s four-year deal to be Nashville’s second line center. It seems to make sense statistically to play Bones (.46 points-per-game for his career) at the position instead of Calle Jarnkrok (.35 points-per-game), but Bonino found his success on the Pens’ third line.

The difference between playing on the second and third lines is far superior to that between the first and second. So really, the question is if Bones is top-six material.

Maybe he is, maybe he isn’t. With Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in his way, Bonino never had consistent opportunities to play on a second line and showcase his ability. I think he’s best suited for the third line, but maybe he has a few tricks up his sleeve.

Offseason Grade: C+

Like students allowed to retake a test, this grade has the potential to improve after seeing the Preds’ final product. I will be the first to admit I’m wrong about Bonino’s second line abilities, but I want to see evidence that he is capable of playing the position. Beyond that, Nashville had very little it needed to improve. As long as they can successfully adjust to playing without Ellis – and then readjust when he returns – the sky should be the limit for this Predators squad.

Columbus, Duchene, Anderson and the Delicate Art of Negotiations

The first games of NHL pre-season have come and gone and Matt Duchene still is a member of the Colorado Avalanche, despite Duchene being the most visible asset on the trade market and possibly the best player available dating back to the middle point of the 2016-17 season.  Meanwhile, Josh Anderson, after having one solid campaign in the bottom six for Columbus remains one of two unsigned, restricted free agents. How is this possible?

Both instances show the delicate balance in negotiating a deal. I’m not an NHL GM, but I play one on the Internet.  When I’m not doing that, as a lawyer, I spend my days negotiating deals.  There are many different negotiating styles, but there are certain basic principles of negotiations that are important regardless of style.  Most people are at least familiar with the concept of leverage—the idea that parties in the negotiation have different strengths and weaknesses based on their circumstances.  However, there is a more basic concept that should ultimately guide parties in a negotiation, which I’ll refer to as “BATNA”—the best alternative to a negotiated agreement.  To be clear, this isn’t something I created, it goes back to the Harvard Negotiation Project and the book Getting to Yes.

BATNA is, in short, the best result you can achieve if negotiations fail. A rational negotiator won’t accept an offer that falls short of their BATNA because they are better off not closing the deal.  In the Duchene trade talks we have heard a lot about how Joe Sakic can just keep Matt Duchene.  To this point, that is exactly what he’s done.  The party line is that if Duchene has a good year, Sakic will see offers improve and so he is reasonable to hold out for a deal equivalent to what he thinks he can get if Duchene’s play improve.

However, this isn’t a fair understanding of how BATNA works. Sakic also has to consider other factors.  For example, if Duchene has another poor year, how would that impact his trade value?  If Sakic can’t trade him until next offseason (more on this below), how would that impact his trade value?  What if Duchene gets injured?  What if other comparable or better players come onto the trade market in the interim (ex. John Tavares or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins)?  What if the trade pool shrinks as some teams address their need at center internally or because a team no longer has the asset Sakic wants to complete the deal?

Sakic’s worst case BATNA is pretty bad. If Duchene has a poor season (not improbable on a team as bad as the Avalanche) or gets injured (not uncommon in the NHL), Duchene’s value could go down to close to zero.  If John Tavares and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are suddenly on the market with Duchene, demand for Duchene will decrease even if he otherwise has a good year.  If teams like Columbus find an internal solution for their current needs at center (not unthinkable for Columbus in particular because of the presence of Pierre-Luc Dubois), the market for Duchene could take a further hit. We’ve already seen Nashville’s interest diminish as they lost the depth at defenseman they needed to complete a deal.  Keeping Duchene beyond training camp is risky business.

Now, let’s look at the case of Josh Anderson and his agent, Darren Ferris. Anderson had a nice year, but trailed off as the season moved on.  He has no arbitration rights.  He would seem to justify a deal less than Connor Brown, who just got a deal for $2.1 million/year over three years.  It’s unclear exactly where the parties are at other than a report that suggested the Jackets have given Anderson two options—a one year deal at his qualifying offer and a three year deal of “less than $1.9 million” (which sounds like agent speak for $1.85 million).  That second option sounds pretty close to market.  Yet, Anderson continues to hold out and his agent is now threatening that his player will play in Switzerland and then the Olympics.

When we look at Anderson’s BATNA, it becomes obvious that this is either a bluff, or an incredibly foolish move by Ferris. Anderson’s salary in Switzerland is likely to be a maximum of $500,000.  Even Anderson’s qualifying offer is higher than that.  And what does Anderson gain by spending a season in Switzerland? Nothing.  He still won’t obtain arbitration rights.  What if he has a poor season in Europe, in a subpar league, or gets injured?  What if Milano, or Abramov or some other Jackets prospect simply takes Anderson’s roster spot and makes him expendable?  The bottom line is that the Jackets negotiating position won’t get worse, but Anderson’s certainly could.

Sometimes pride can get in the way of making a deal. This is almost always a bad idea.  As an attorney, I may come to hate the attorney on the other side, but it is my job to do what is best for my client regardless of those feelings.  Sakic and Ferris need to think about the best interest of their “clients”—the Colorado Avalanche and Josh Anderson.  Sakic needs to make a move on Duchene now rather than risk finding his return further diminished.  Ferris needs to get his client a deal that keeps him in the NHL and doesn’t waste hundreds of thousands of dollars for nothing.

Another piece of negotiating advice that a former partner who practiced in the bankruptcy arena once gave was “always give the other side enough money for cab fare home.” What does that mean?  It means that when you are the party with superior leverage, it is important to afford the other side some amount of dignity in “defeat.”

Jarmo Kekäläinen is in a position to potentially resolve both of these issues in one move, but to do it he will have to give the other sides money for cab fare home. For Sakic, that will mean giving him something that he previously asked for in negotiations and was denied—Anderson.  In the most recent 31 Thoughts column by Elliotte Friedman, he stated:  “It is believed, for example, that Colorado asked for [Anderson] in Matt Duchene talks, only to be rejected.” The status of the negotiations between Columbus and Anderson have created an opening for the two parties to re-engage in discussions of a trade that would include Anderson.  Sakic, in turn, will have to accept Ryan Murray instead of Gabriel Carlsson.  I get why Sakic wants the younger player and I don’t think it has as much to do with perceived skill as time horizons for being competitive and control of the player through contract, but he can’t expect to get a Anderson AND a player on an entry-level contract.  It seems likely that a pick would be a part of the deal, with the possibility that a pick might come back to the Jackets to even things out.  I’d also consider the possibility of adding a player like Dean Kukan given the lack of organizational depth on the blueline for the Avs.  Sakic can crow that he got “4 assets” as he initially set out to do (even if he also sends an asset back) and he can proclaim that the moment that the deal came together was when Anderson was added.  People will praise Sakic for holding out to get what a better deal though no one will ever know for sure what other deals were passed up along the way or pulled off the table.  Sakic will get the left defenseman he needs and a player who could put up 20 plus goals if moved into the Avs top 6, essentially replacing Duchene’s production from last season.  He’ll have both on reasonable terms for years to come.

And what of Darren Ferris? He may well end up signing the exact same deal that Jarmo already offered his client in Colorado, but the public will be none the wiser since Jarmo has never gone public to say what that offer was.  He may not like dealing with Jarmo, but he should also respect the fact that Jarmo didn’t make a fool of him in the newspapers, which he certainly could have.

Meanwhile, the Jackets shore up their depth at center, while giving some of their depth on defense. Defensive depth is always something that can be added at the trade deadline (particularly the bottom pair), so it is a reasonable trade-off.  Is it a lot to give up?  Yes.  Is the team closer to being a contender after the trade?  Also, yes.  The longer the Anderson situation plays out, the more this option could and should be considered by the Jackets.  The question then is whether Sakic can see a trade with this sort of framework for what it is—the best offer he is likely to obtain that minimizes the negative effects of his best alternative to a trade.

Buffalo Sabres 2017-2018 Season Preview

Buffalo Sabres

33-37-12, 78 points, 8th in Atlantic (‘16-‘17)

Key Additions: Viktor Antipin, Nathan BeaulieuSeth GriffithChad JohnsonJacob JosefsonJason PominvilleBenoit PouliotMarco Scandella, Phil Housley (Coach), Jason Botterill (GM)

Key Subtractions: Tyler Ennis (Traded to Minnesota), Marcus Foligno (Traded to Minnesota), Dmitry Kulikov (Signed with Winnipeg), Dan Bylsma (Fired), Tim Murray (Fired)

Unsigned: Cody Franson

Offseason Analysis: The Buffalo Sabres had a busy offseason to say the least, as both General Manager Tim Murray and Head Coach Dan Byslma were fired following the club’s sixth-straight season missing the playoffs. The search for a new GM led Owner Terry Pegula to former player Jason Botterill, who continued the trend of hiring former players by offering former Sabres great Phil Housley his first NHL head coaching job. Housley was an assistant coach with the Nashville Predators for the past four seasons, helping to lead the club to its first Stanley Cup Finals appearance. This was a smart move to hire a former blue liner to lead the team, as he should bring Buffalo a smooth-skating team that allows the defensemen, Rasmus Ristolainen in particular, to carry the puck up ice similar to Nashville’s style.

The Sabres have struggled defensively for years now, so it was no surprise that Botterill’s first goal was to fix that issue. He started by signing KHL free agent defenseman Viktor Antipin, but didn’t stop there: he also acquired Nathan Beaulieu from Montreal for a 3rd round pick. Botterill still saw the need for a top pair defenseman, so he traded Tyler Ennis, Marcus Foligno and a 3rd round pick to the Minnesota Wild for Marco Scandella, fan-favorite Jason Pominville and a 4th round pick.

Although Botterill addressed the Sabres’ defensive issues early in summer, he didn’t neglect his other positions. Among his most important additions are Benoit Pouliot, Chad Johnson and Jacob Josefson.

All in all, the Sabres’ offseason look pretty solid. They didn’t go out and overspend on any major free agents.

That being said, they still have a big hole among their top 6 forwards. Specifically, the need for a left wing is paramount, and it has top prospects Justin Bailey, Nicholas Baptiste and Alexander Nylander all itching for the chance to play with the big boys. I personally believe Nylander stands the best chance. He is a natural left wing and has added some needed muscle this offseason. A solid camp from him could see him playing on the left with Jack Eichel or Ryan O’Reilly.

Offseason Grade: B+

Overall, the Sabres had a tremendous offseason and I think the fans will see a better product on the ice this season. With a healthy Eichel and strong defense, I think the Sabres should be a playoff team.