Tag Archives: Milan Lucic

DTFR Podcast #132- Hall of Guardians and Turtlenecks

The 2018 Hockey Hall of Fame Class was inducted on Monday, plus we remember the NHL Guardians and celebrate Joe Thornton’s milestones. Tomas Plekanec retired– leaving us a turtleneck to pass on ceremoniously– and Milan Lucic was fined $10,000.

The Pittsburgh Penguins’ plight comes with an extension for General Manager Jim Rutherford, while the Los Angeles Kings battle the injury bug in net (we finished recording before Wednesday’s trade between the two clubs).

Meanwhile, Tom Wilson is back, a concussion lawsuit was settled, the 2019 NWHL All-Star Game was announced, Jakob Chychrun got a six-year extension and Nick and Connor discuss when they’ll eventually let their kids (if they ever have any) play contact sports.

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Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes)Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

DTFR Podcast #131- Hockey Plague

Pekka Rinne signed a two-year extension, John Stevens and Joel Quenneville were fired, Willie Desjardin’s back and there’s a new guy in Chicago (Jeremy Colliton), Philadelphia Flyers goaltending is in the news again, people in Ottawa are fired up about Uber, Lou Lamoriello reached 2,400 games as a GM as the New York Islanders lead the Metropolitan Division and is Halloween the new Thanksgiving? Nick and Connor discuss.

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes)Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

DTFR Podcast #129- Top Line Stars

Nick and Connor talk Alex Tuch’s extension with the Vegas Golden Knights, superstars Auston Matthews, Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid, as well as Charlie McAvoy extension options, the New York Rangers, Boston’s first line vs. Colorado’s top line and the week’s biggest matchup.

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes)Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

Oilers win home opener in OT, 3-2, over Boston

Connor McDavid‘s two assists helped the Edmonton Oilers beat the Boston Bruins, 3-2, in overtime Thursday night in Edmonton’s home opener at Rogers Place since starting 2018-19 regular season over in Sweden against the New Jersey Devils and journeying the long road back.

Leon Draisaitl scored the game-winning goal 37 seconds into overtime to oust the Bruins, while Cam Talbot (3-2-0) made 27 saves on 29 shots faced for a .931 save percentage to go along with the victory.

Boston netminder, Jaroslav Halak (2-0-1), turned aside 19 shots out of 22 shots against for an .864 SV% in the loss (Halak’s first of the season).

The Bruins are now 4-2-1 (9 points) and tied for 2nd place in the Atlantic Division on points, but are technically situated 3rd in the division standings, thanks to the Montreal Canadiens having a game-in-hand on Boston.

The B’s fell to 1-2-1 on the road so far this season, recording a 7-0 loss on Oct. 3rd in Washington, a 4-0 win on Oct. 4th in Buffalo and a 5-2 loss on Oct. 17th in Calgary in addition to Thursday’s overtime loss to the Oilers. Of their four road games thus far, three of them have been the home opener for their opponent.

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Edmonton jumped to 5th in the Pacific Division standings with a 3-2-0 (6 points) record in five games played. The Oilers have two games-in-hand over the Vegas Golden Knights (who also have 6 points on the season), therefore maintaining the tiebreaker for now.

In addition to being happy about the win, Edmonton was just as happy to return home after playing a preseason matchup with the German club, Kölner Haie (DEL), then starting the regular season against New Jersey in Sweden and being on the road ever since.

Bruins bench boss, Bruce Cassidy, kept Jake DeBrusk on the second line right wing with David Krejci, but inserted Danton Heinen back into the lineup to the left of the Czech center, demoting Joakim Nordstrom to the fourth line left wing slot.

Chris Wagner replaced Anders Bjork on the third line right side of Ryan Donato and David Backes. Bjork and Steven Kampfer were healthy scratches while Torey Krug remains out due to injury.

Boston blue liner, Kevan Miller, left Thursday’s game in the third period with an upper body injury and did not return to action– this, after Matt Benning caught Backes up high with a shoulder to the chin of No. 42 in black-and-gold, causing concerns among the Bruins brass in the first period given Backes’ concussion history.

Backes would return to action, unlike Miller.

Adam Larsson was guilty of the game’s first penalty for slashing Boston forward, Brad Marchand, at 6:51 of the first period. The Bruins did not convert on the ensuing power play.

Brandon Carlo was called for holding Oilers rookie Kailer Yamamoto at 15:10 and Edmonton failed to take full advantage of the skater advantage that followed.

Entering the first intermission, the score was tied, 0-0. Shots on goal were 12-5 in favor of the Bruins, while the Oilers led in blocked shots (8-5), giveaways (7-4) and face-off win percentage (63-37). Boston led in hits (12-11) and takeaways were even (3-3). Both teams were 0/1 on the special teams advantage.

Oilers defender, Kris Russell, tripped up Marchand 6:18 into the second period and gave the Bruins their second power play of the night. Boston failed to convert, yet again, on the man advantage and play continued at even strength.

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Matt Grzelcyk received the puck from Heinen and sent a pristine cross-ice pass to Krejci (1) for the Bruins second line center’s first goal of the season– and the first goal of the night for either team– to give Boston a 1-0 lead at 11:17.

Grzelcyck (3) and Heinen (1) were tabbed with the assists on Krejci’s goal.

After recording zero points in the first four games and being scratched for the matchup in Calgary, Heinen earned his first point of the season in the form of an assist on Krejci’s tally.

Not to be outdone, Edmonton responded quickly with a first of their own.

Yamamoto (1) led a fast break-in for the Oilers on a long transition pass from Larsson in his own defensive zone to the rookie forward at the blue line and got past Bruins defender, Charlie McAvoy, to go high-glove side past Halak and tie the game, 1-1.

Larsson (1) and Russell (1) had the assists on Yamamoto’s first career NHL goal at 13:24 of the second period.

Shortly thereafter, Edmonton announced Benning would not return to the night’s action with an injury and Marchand even briefly went down the tunnel for Boston in some discomfort before returning to play.

Through 40 minutes of gameplay, the game was tied, 1-1, and the Bruins were leading in shots on goal, 19-15 (despite being outshot, 10-7, in the second period). Boston also held onto the lead in blocked shots (12-11) and takeaways (8-7), while Edmonton had an advantage in giveaways (14-10), hits (21-17) and face-off win% (58-42).

After two periods, the Oilers were 0/1 on the power play and the Bruins were 0/2.

McAvoy was guilty of holding the stick of No. 97 in orange-and-blue and was subsequently dealt a minor penalty at 6:31 of the third period.

McDavid bounced an errant indirect pass off the endboards, giving Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2) a prime carom to pounce on and score the power play goal that gave Edmonton a 2-1 lead at 7:33.

The Oilers captain, McDavid (6), and Oscar Klefbom (2) had the assists on the go-ahead goal, but it wasn’t enough offense to secure the deal just yet.

Brad Marchand worked the puck from Wayne Gretzky‘s office behind the goal in the attacking zone and found David Pastrnak creeping in from the right point as McAvoy was pinching in down low.

Pastrnak (8) scored on the short side of Talbot on a one-timer snap shot and tied the game, 2-2, at 11:26 of the third period. Marchand (10) and McAvoy (5) had the assists for Boston.

Just over a minute later, tempers were tested as McDavid failed to convert on a scoring chance and sought to take out a little frustration on Wagner while returning to the bench. Wagner sought retaliation and found Ryan Strome before everyone on the ice was involved in a minor scrum.

Edmonton’s Milan Lucic and Strome received minor penalties for roughing, while Boston forwards Wagner and Nordstrom each earned two minutes for roughing as well. All penalties were matching at 12:31 of the third period so the action remained 5-on-5.

Shortly after the gaggle of players in the penalty box were freed, Tobias Rieder took a trip to the sin bin– coincidentally– for tripping Backes at 14:37.

Boston did not score on the ensuing power play.

After regulation, the game was tied, 2-2, with Boston leading in shots on goal (29-21) and outshooting the Oilers, 10-6, in the third period. Edmonton held onto the advantage in blocked shots (17-14), takeaways (12-9), giveaways (17-14) and hits (34-29). Face-off win% was even (50-50) after 60 minutes and Edmonton was 1/2 on the power play. The Bruins were 0/3 on the skater advantage.

Marchand turned over the puck in the neutral zone to McDavid who found Leon Draisaitl (2) for the prompt conversion on the scoreboard and game-winning goal 37 seconds in to overtime. McDavid (7) recorded his second assist of the night on the goal and Edmonton walked away with the, 3-2, victory in their home opener.

The Bruins accrued one giveaway in overtime– and a costly one at that– while the Oilers notched a shot on goal and one hit to add to their game totals. Edmonton also finished the night with the slight advantage in face-off win% (52-48).

Among other stats…

Boston captain, Zdeno Chara, played in his 900th game for the Bruins Thursday night, becoming just the sixth player in franchise history to do so. Ray Bourque (1,518 games played for Boston), Johnny Bucyk (1,436), current General Manager Don Sweeney (1,052), Wayne Cashman (1,027) and current teammate Patrice Bergeron (970) are the others.

Ryan Donato, David Backes and Chris Wagner finished the night each as minus-one, while Wagner led the Bruins in hits with eight. Noel Acciari, Sean Kuraly and Kevan Miller were the next closest with three hits each.

Miller led in blocked shots with three, while fellow defenders John Moore and Charlie McAvoy, as well as forward, Patrice Bergeron each had two.

Brad Marchand led the way for Boston in shots on goal with four, while his linemates (Bergeron and Pastrnak) were the next closest with three shots on net apiece.

Darnell Nurse and Evan Bouchard were each a minus-two for Edmonton, while Larsson and Lucic each recorded seven hits. Larsson and Russell led the Oilers in blocked shots with four apiece and Nugent-Hopkins led his teammates in shots on goal with four.

Boston and Edmonton split their season series with the Bruins going 1-0-1 in two games against the Oilers. The B’s take on the Vancouver Canucks Saturday night at Rogers Arena before paying a visit to the Ottawa Senators on Oct. 23rd.

DTFR Podcast #128- Celebration Hardcore Brother (a.k.a. Celly Hard Bro)

Nick and Connor rant about retired numbers, anniversary patches, showing emotion in hockey, the Toronto Maple Leafs and William Nylander, coaches that might get fired, “the code” and Mike Matheson’s antics.

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes)Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

Halak and Bruins first line beat Oilers, 4-1

The Boston Bruins defeated the Edmonton Oilers, 4-1, Thursday night at TD Garden on the backs of a strong effort in goal from backup goaltender, Jaroslav Halak, and their first line of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak.

Connor McDavid opened the game’s scoring before Pastrnak tied it and Marchand gave Boston their first lead of the night shortly thereafter. Joakim Nordstrom provided the insurance goal for the Bruins and Patrice Bergeron added the empty net goal late in the third period.

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Halak made 25 saves on 26 shots against for a .992 save percentage in the win, while Edmonton netminder, Cam Talbot, stopped 28 out of 31 shots faced for a .903 SV% in the loss.

Boston improved to 3-1-0 (6 points) on the season and held onto 2nd place in the Atlantic Division. Edmonton is 0-2-0 (0 points) and sits last (8th) in the Pacific Division.

Milan Lucic made his 3rd annual visit to the Hub since the former Bruins winger and 2011 Stanley Cup champion was traded to the Los Angeles Kings at the 2015 NHL Draft before signing with the Oilers on July 1, 2016. There were a few Lucic No. 27 Oilers jerseys in the crowd along with throwback sweaters to his days in Boston among the fans, as seen on television.

Boston is set to take on the Detroit Red Wings (0-2-2, 2 points) Saturday afternoon on home ice for a 3 o’clock ET puck drop. The B’s moved up the start time so as not to interrupt fans across the New England region’s experience of Game 1 between the Boston Red Sox and the Houston Astros in the ALCS at Fenway Park.

The Bruins are facing the Oilers twice in a matter of eight days this season, as Boston begins their Western Canada road trip in Calgary, Alberta on Wednesday, October 17th against the Flames before traveling to Edmonton on the 18th and Vancouver on the 20th to face the Canucks. The B’s wrap up their four-game road trip (including three in Western Canada) after visiting the Ottawa Senators on October 23rd.

Thursday night’s action kicked off with a couple of changes made to Bruce Cassidy‘s lineup for the Bruins. After being a healthy scratch for Monday’s win against the Senators, Nordstrom was back in the lineup– this time around on the second line to the left of David Krejci and Jake DeBrusk.

DeBrusk was placed on his off-wing on the right side, while Ryan Donato was scratched.

Everything else remained the same as Monday’s lineup with the exception of Halak getting the nod in net with Tuukka Rask expected to play Saturday and the bulk of the Western Canada road trip.

McDavid (1) scored his first goal of the season after being held scoreless in Sweden against the New Jersey Devils for Edmonton’s season opener as part of the NHL Global Series this season.

220px-Logo_Edmonton_Oilers.svgTy Rattie sent McDavid a backhand pass on a spin-o-rama up the ice, where McDavid then burst into nearly the speed of sound, turning on his jets into the offensive zone and beating Halak with a quick release that snuck through the Bruins netminder’s five-hole while Halak was slow to react.

Rattie (1) and Darnell Nurse (1) had the assists on McDavid’s goal at 3:43 of the first period and the Oilers grabbed on to the 1-0 lead.

It wouldn’t be for long, though, as Edmonton defender, Adam Larsson, interfered with Nordstrom’s ability to play the puck at 8:12 of the opening frame and sent the Bruins onto their first power play of the night.

Just 68 seconds into the skater advantage, David Pastrnak (4) scored a highlight reel goal– and early candidate for goal of the season– and tied the game, 1-1, at 9:20 of the first period. Matt Grzelcyk (1) worked the puck to Pastrnak for his first assist of the season.

After receiving the puck from Grzelcyk, Pastrnak juked the puck through his own legs– pulling it to his backhand, before deking Talbot out of his mind– forcing the Oilers netminder to butterfly– then quietly sneaked the puck past Talbot’s short side on the backhand.

The game would remain a 1-1 tie until late in the first period, when Jujhar Khaira hit Boston defender, John Moore, from behind and received a boarding minor at 13:54.

On the ensuing power play, Anders Bjork sent the puck from halfway down the boards in the offensive zone back to the point, where the Bruins defense went d-to-d and across the ice to Marchand (1) waiting in the low slot for the power play goal.

Grzelcyk (2) picked up his second assist of the night and Bergeron (3) was credited with the secondary helper on Marchand’s goal at 14:37 and Boston had their first lead of the night, 2-1.

The Bruins wouldn’t look back.

Less than a minute later, Joakim Nordstrom entered the zone on a rush with David Krejci, sending a pass over to the Bruins playmaker who was skating down the right side with Nordstrom moving up the middle towards the goal.

Krejci slid the puck back to Nordstrom (1) for a one-timed wrist shot past Talbot and Boston had a two-goal lead, 3-1, at 15:13 of the first period. Krejci (2) had the only assist on the goal after Nordstrom originally turned the puck over and created a rush.

Charlie McAvoy was guilty of interference against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at 16:45 of the first period, giving the Oilers their first chance on the power play.

While shorthanded, Marchand broke free and drew a slashing penalty on a breakaway that nearly resulted in a goal at 17:19, canceling Edmonton’s power play opportunity and instead resulting in an abbreviated period of 4-on-4 action.

Oscar Klefbom was the guilty party and served his two minutes in the box while both teams failed to generate any scoring in the ensuing 4-on-4 play and shortlived power play for Boston.

After 20 minutes of action, the Bruins led 3-1 and were outshooting the Oilers, 15-11. Edmonton led in blocked shots (4-0), giveaways (2-0) and hits (11-9), while both teams were even in takeaways (4-4) and face-off win percentage (50-50). Boston was 2/3 on the power play and Edmonton was 0/1 entering the first intermission.

Tempers flared early in the second period when Kevan Miller and Khaira squared off and exchanged fisticuffs 3:33 into the second frame.

David Backes and Drake Caggiula got into a bit of a shoving match of their own minutes later after. Each received a roughing minor at 7:27 of the second period for their quarrel.

The ruckus simmered down as the period went on, despite one more crescendo as Sean Kuraly checked Edmonton blue liner Matt Benning hard enough into the glass to force the entire pane to fall out. Credit to the TD Garden ice crew, it was fixed in minutes and play resumed without much interruption.

Danton Heinen tripped up Connor McDavid at 18:24 of the second period, but the Oilers power play would carry over into the start of the third period.

Through two periods, Boston held onto their 3-1 lead and was outshooting Edmonton, 22-17. The Oilers led in blocked shots (6-4) and hits (22-13), while the Bruins had the advantage in takeaways (13-8) and face-off win% (55-45). Edmonton was 0/2 on the power play after 40 minutes and the B’s were 2/3.

Boston had a bit of a scare in the third period, as McDavid forced a pass to Rattie, who then sent the puck to Nugent-Hopkins in the low slot. From close range Nugent-Hopkins rang the iron, then the rubber biscuit rolled on edge across the goal line but just wouldn’t go in as Zdeno Chara guided it out of the crease at the last second.

Jesse Puljujarvi got a stick up high on Pastrnak midway through the third, but the Bruins failed to convert on the power play.

With 2:19 remaining in regulation, Oilers head coach Todd McLellan pulled Talbot for an extra attacker, but it was to no avail as Boston worked the puck out of their own zone, first with Brandon Carlo missing an empty net opportunity, then with Bergeron (5) successfully connecting on the gaping twine at 19:25 of the third period.

Bergeron secured a 4-1 victory for the Bruins as time expired and one more scrum ensued.

Boston finished the night with an advantage in shots on goal (32-26), blocked shots (11-8) and face-off win% (62-38), while Edmonton led in giveaways (11-10) and hits (27-21). The Oilers finished 0/2 on the power play, while Boston ended up .500 on the night going 2/4 on the skater advantage.

Among other stats…

Chris Wagner led the Bruins in hits with four, while Moore had three from the blue line. Kuraly led the team in shots on goal with six shots fired on Talbot. Bergeron finished the night second in shots on goal for the black-and-gold with four, while Marchand, Pastrnak and Wagner each had three.

Despite not engaging in any extracurricular activity, Milan Lucic managed six hits on the night for Edmonton. Leon Draisaitl and Klefbom were non-factors in the 60-minute effort as they both finished the night as a minus-2.

Meanwhile, McDavid led his team in shots on goal with four, while Nugent-Hopkins and Klefbom had three shots apiece.

Boston Bruins 2018-19 Projected Stats

Well, technically it’s a forecast.

In the coming days I’ll reveal what teams I’ll be forecasting/tracking all season long, so stay tuned because it’s about to get messier than ever before and I’m up for the challenge.


The 2018-19 regular season gets underway Wednesday night in Washington, D.C. as the Boston Bruins visit the United States capital and defending Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals to kick off their own run to the Cup.*

*Subject to change based on injuries and performance.

As has been tradition for the last– oh I don’t know– several seasons now, here’s a look at some things to expect from each and every member of the Bruins roster that has played in at least one career NHL game. Keep in mind there are many variables that should be taken into account when everyone reads this in April and points and laughs.

For starters, injuries, being a healthy scratch, being sent down or called up, sickness and general superstitions (which may or may not actually exist) disrupt a player’s season pretty well, as well as more things I won’t bother to mention.

You’re either here to hear about how David Pastrnak is going to lead Boston in scoring this season or you’re wondering when the next post will appear and you can keep scrolling on by.

Before we dive in– just for the record– I’d like to remind you all that my degree is in communication– not math– therefore anything that looks “out-of-whack” is Microsoft Excel’s fault. My expertise is in words, which…

These forecasted stats come with an utopian view– as if nothing bad could ever happen and every player actually lived up to their projections– but of course some will pan out, some will exceed expectations and others will miss the mark entirely.

Think of it as a suggested outcome for a sport that is highly unpredictable based on its collective nature and sheer puck luck.

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Boston Bruins Forecast Through 0 Games (82 Games Remaining)

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The Bruins 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs run came to a disappointing end in quick fashion against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Second Round, but the experience– both tangible and intangible– will be enough to a) leave everyone wanting more and b) leave a lot of players with something to prove.

After entering 2017-18 to the tune of “[they’re] too young– too, too young” (shouts Mike Felger of 98.5 The Sports Hub), Boston turned a lot of eyes with a 50-win season, finishing 2nd in the Atlantic Division with 112 points– one point behind the Lightning. In fact, had Boston won their final game of the regular season against the Florida Panthers, they would’ve clinched the division title.

This, of course, all after a First Round exit to the Ottawa Senators in 2017 following two straight postseason misses in 2015 and 2016.

Now the Bruins enter Phase Three of General Manager Don Sweeney‘s masterplan– win a Cup. Now.

First Sweeney retooled on-the-fly, beginning with the Milan Lucic and Dougie Hamilton trades at the 2015 Draft. Then he worked youth into the lineup of Claude Julien and Bruce Cassidy‘s teams. Finally, here we are, the third year of the secret plan to win a Cup in three years as most Bruins front office members determined they’d be at this point, three years ago.

But enough about that, here’s a look at some of Boston’s expected top performers of 2018-19 before the puck even drops on the regular season.

David Pastrnak leads the way in scoring with 71 points (33 goals, 38 assists) from one of the league’s best first lines, comprised of Pastrnak on the right side, Brad Marchand (32-32–64 expected totals) on the left and Patrice Bergeron (25-38–63 expected totals) down the middle.

After injuries limited Bergeron to 64 games last season, the rejuvenated 33-year-old alternate captain in the Hub finally reaches back-to-back 60-point seasons since his pre-Randy Jones induced concussion days. Bergeron had 73 points in his sophomore NHL season (81 games) in 2005-06 and 70 points (77 games) in 2006-07.

The Bruins expected second line of Jake DeBrusk, David Krejci and Ryan Donato doesn’t show any signs of slowing down as DeBrusk (19-32–51 expected totals) enters his sophomore season and Donato (34-27–61 expected totals) enters his first full season in the NHL.

For the first time since the days of the Lucic-Krejci-Nathan Horton line, it seems the Bruins have finally found the right combination of skill, speed and scoring to compliment Krejci’s tremendous two-way playmaking abilities.

Krejci’s 43 assists are expected to lead his team, provided he can stay healthy as the 32-year-old enters his 13th season with Boston since entering the league in 2006-07 (six games played).

Meanwhile, Danton Heinen‘s 50 points (17 goals, 33 assists) are expected to be a key contributor to improved play from Sean Kuraly and David Backes on the third line.

On defense, Charlie McAvoy steps up with 42 points on the season (nine goals, 33 assists) in his sophomore year– uninterrupted by injury or health scares.

Despite missing the start of the regular season Torey Krug still found a way to put up 49 points (11 goals, 38 assists) from the blue line in his fourth consecutive season of 40 or more points. In fact, the only time Krug’s missed the 40-point plateau, he had 39 points in 2014-15 (his 2nd full-season, 78 games played).

Zdeno Chara‘s 12-26–38 expected totals are sensational from a 41-year-old defender entering his 21st professional season in the National Hockey League. Meanwhile, Brandon Carlo‘s going to bounce-back from a sophomore slump to produce three goals and eight assists (11 points) in his junior season as a bottom-three blue liner, sharing duties with Krug, John Moore, Kevan Miller and Matt Grzelcyk on any given night.

In goal, Tuukka Rask remains confident in his defense and in the scoring power of the forwards in front of him, as he cruises along with a 2.28 goals against average and .921 save percentage at (regular) season’s end in April.

Jaroslav Halak stabilizes as a backup goaltender in a system that actually works with good, talented, young defenders that help limit his workload, Halak amasses a 2.49 GAA and .916 SV% in his appearances. His play provides Boston with a nearly 1A/1B option, but ultimately gives way to Rask down the stretch and into the playoffs.

We’ll get into exactly how many games each goalie should realistically see playing time in the next forecast.

2018-19 Projected Standings

It’s still way too early to make these bold claims, but let’s do it anyway.

Using marginal goals for and marginal goals against from the 2017-18 regular season– let’s assume there were no roster, coaching or front office changes this summer that would otherwise flip everything upside-down– here are expected points totals for all 31 National Hockey League teams for the 2018-19 season.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

  1. z-Tampa Bay Lightning, 114 points
  2. x-Boston Bruins, 113 points
  3. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 108 points
  4. Florida Panthers, 92 points
  5. Detroit Red Wings, 77 points
  6. Montreal Canadiens, 71 points
  7. Ottawa Senators, 65 points
  8. Buffalo Sabres, 61 points

Metropolitan Division

  1. y-Pittsburgh Penguins, 100 points
  2. x-Washington Capitals, 99 points
  3. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 96 points
  4. x-Philadelphia Flyers, 95 points
  5. x-New Jersey Devils, 93 points
  6. Carolina Hurricanes, 81 points
  7. New York Islanders, 79 points
  8. New York Rangers, 78 points

2018-19 Eastern Conference Outlook

Not much is different in the Atlantic Division heading into 2018-19.

The top teams are the top teams, regardless of their additions (John Tavares to the Toronto Maple Leafs) or subtractions (uhh, James van Riemsdyk from the Maple Leafs?) and there’s going to be a little movement in the Metropolitan Division (most notably, a new division leader from 2017-18 to 2018-19).

Carolina’s revamped defense and the Rangers post-trade deadline to present overhaul are wild cards to watch for any surprises in the standings.

2017-18 Eastern Conference Expected Points Totals vs. (What Actually Happened)

Atlantic Division

  1. y-Montreal Canadiens, 102 points (z-Tampa Bay Lightning, 113 points)
  2. x-Boston Bruins, 101 points (x-Boston Bruins, 112 points)
  3. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 95 points (x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 105 points)
  4. x-Tampa Bay Lightning, 95 points (Florida Panthers, 96 points)
  5. Ottawa Senators, 91 points (Detroit Red Wings, 73 points)
  6. Florida Panthers, 81 points (Montreal Canadiens, 71 points)
  7. Detroit Red Wings, 77 points (Ottawa Senators, 67 points)
  8. Buffalo Sabres, 77 points (Buffalo Sabres, 62 points)

What happened in the Atlantic? Injuries and age slowed the Canadiens way, way down, while Tampa reemerged as one of the top teams in the NHL, appearing in their third Eastern Conference Final in four years (despite losing to the Washington Capitals in seven games).

Boston proved to be ahead of schedule in their plan, while the Leafs were right on track. Meanwhile, the floor fell out from underneath the Senators and a new head coach didn’t bring the expected progress in development for the Sabres.

Florida turned a few heads, though ultimately proved to be a non-contender, missing the playoffs by a point (Columbus and New Jersey locked up the Eastern Conference wild cards with 97 points on the season), while Detroit fell within the expected margin of error (anywhere from 72-82 points on the season).

Metropolitan Division

  1. p-Washington Capitals, 125 points (y-Washington Capitals, 105 points)
  2. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 114 points (x-Pittsburgh Penguins, 100 points)
  3. x-Pittsburgh Penguins, 111 points (x-Philadelphia Flyers, 98 points)
  4. x-New York Rangers, 106 points (x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 97 points)
  5. New York Islanders, 91 points (x-New Jersey Devils, 97 points)
  6. Philadelphia Flyers, 85 points (Carolina Hurricanes, 83 points)
  7. Carolina Hurricanes, 83 points (New York Islanders, 80 points)
  8. New Jersey Devils, 67 points (New York Rangers, 77 points)

What happened in the Metropolitan? Sometimes it’s not about the number of points, but rather, the divisional standing that matters.

Washington may have surprised some experts by finishing 1st in their division in 2017-18 (then going on to win the Cup), but to us it wasn’t (the division win, not the Cup). The rest was a crapshoot. Three teams (Washington, Columbus and Pittsburgh) made the playoffs from our predictions heading into last season, while one (N.Y. Rangers) fell flat and hit the reset button.

New Jersey had one of the biggest improvements from 2016-17 to 2017-18, while the Carolina Hurricanes hit the nail on the head (albeit one position higher than our prediction) with 83 points in 2017-18.

Western Conference

Central Division

  1. z-Winnipeg Jets, 114 points
  2. x-Nashville Predators, 113 points
  3. x-Minnesota Wild, 99 points
  4. x-Colorado Avalanche, 99 points
  5. Dallas Stars, 95 points
  6. St. Louis Blues, 93 points
  7. Chicago Blackhawks, 81 points

Pacific Division

  1. y-Vegas Golden Knights, 108 points
  2. x-Los Angeles Kings, 105 points
  3. x-San Jose Sharks, 100 points
  4. x-Anaheim Ducks, 99 points
  5. Edmonton Oilers, 81 points
  6. Calgary Flames, 80 points
  7. Vancouver Canucks, 74 points
  8. Arizona Coyotes, 73 points

2018-19 Western Conference Outlook

Before the additions of Ryan O’Reilly (via trade), Tyler Bozak and Patrick Maroon (via free agency), the St. Louis Blues were destined to slide through another season of mediocrity. Now, they’re the most unpredictable team of the Central Division– and, yes, that’s even acknowledging what kind of season Jake Allen has in net.

Allen could make or break St. Louis’s season, though Mike Yeo will have to balance Allen’s starting time with Chad Johnson‘s play as a solid backup, but enough about the Blues (for now).

Everything else looks just the same in the Central with Colorado, Minnesota and Dallas as the teams that are most likely to change places and hit or miss one of the last playoff spots in the West.

In the Pacific, the arms race for the top of the division rages on with the Golden Knights, Kings and Sharks auditioning for the role of top-dog and the Ducks bumbling their way into a wild card spot.

It’s status quo in Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver, with the Arizona Coyotes entering the 2018-19 season as the biggest underdogs (hint, if they had played the way they did from February through April 2018 all season last season, they would be a lot higher up in these expected totals).

2017-18 Western Conference Expected Points Totals vs. (What Actually Happened)

Central Division

  1. z-Minnesota Wild, 115 points (p-Nashville Predators, 117 points)
  2. x-Chicago Blackhawks, 104 points (x-Winnipeg Jets, 114 points)
  3. x-St. Louis Blues, 99 points (x-Minnesota Wild, 101 points)
  4. x-Nashville Predators, 98 points (x-Colorado Avalanche, 95 points)
  5. Winnipeg Jets, 89 points (St. Louis Blues, 94 points)
  6. Dallas Stars, 76 points (Dallas Stars, 92 points)
  7. Colorado Avalanche, 47 points (Chicago Blackhawks, 76 points)

What happened in the Central? Simply put, the stars aligned.

The Blackhawks were kept far away from the 90-point plateau (and a playoff spot) by virtue of injuries to their starting goaltender, Corey Crawford, while the anemic offense of the 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche was no more in 2017-18.

Both are surprises– by definition, given expected points totals are driven by an equation that takes last season’s offense into account for the following season– but any inherent intuition would show that Colorado was destined to improve (by that much, perhaps not).

St. Louis fell out of the race while Connor Hellebuyck backstopped the Winnipeg Jets to a 50-plus win season and the Wild surged quietly. The Stars were thought to be further off the path back to the playoffs than they turned out, but alas, Dallas was still 6th in the division at season’s end.

Pacific Division

  1. y-Vegas Golden Knights, 106 points (y-Vegas Golden Knights, 109 points)
  2. x-Edmonton Oilers, 106 points (x-Anaheim Ducks, 101 points)
  3. x-Anaheim Ducks, 101 points (x-San Jose Sharks, 100 points)
  4. x- San Jose Sharks, 100 points (x-Los Angeles Kings, 98 points)
  5. Calgary Flames, 94 points (Calgary Flames, 84 points)
  6. Los Angeles Kings, 90 points (Edmonton Oilers, 78 points)
  7. Vancouver Canucks, 67 points (Vancouver Canucks, 73 points)
  8. Arizona Coyotes, 66 points (Arizona Coyotes, 70 points)

What happened in the Pacific? One of the best things about making predictions using a set of data is the outliers that cause some people to doubt all of math in its entirety. Nothing is concrete in the world of projections and expectations. The 2017-18 Edmonton Oilers are a great example of that.

Based on a spectacular breakout 2016-17 season, the Oilers should’ve done a lot more than *checks notes* leave Cam Talbot in the net for too many games, facing too many shots, while Milan Lucic exerts some type of energy in the midst of another 100-point season by Connor McDavid only to miss the playoffs (by a lot) and still receive enough pity votes for the Hart Memorial Trophy to finish 5th in the voting. Hmm.

One player does not make a team. One expected points total before a single puck drops on the regular season does not guarantee anything.

Meanwhile, Vegas surprised everyone, Anaheim and San Jose hit their expected points totals, Los Angeles was ahead of schedule (though the core is still aging), Calgary regressed and the rest was as expected (again, given the margin of error– about +/- 5 points).

DTFR Podcast #123- 2018-19 Atlantic Division Season Preview

Nick, Colby and Connor talk the Max Pacioretty trade, Eugene Melnyk’s latest antics, John Tortorella’s extension, Adam McQuaid and Steve Yzerman stepping down in Tampa. Also in this episode– DTFR’s official 2018-19 Atlantic Division preview.

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes)Stitcher and/or on Spotify.

Edmonton Oilers 2018-19 Season Preview

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Edmonton Oilers

36-40-6, 78 points, 6th in the Pacific Division

Additions: F Kyle Brodziak, F Josh Currie, D Jason Garrison (signed to a PTO), D Kevin Gravel, G Hayden Hawkey (acquired from MTL), D Jakub Jerabek, F Tobias Rieder, F Scottie Upshall (signed to a PTO)

Subtractions: D Yohann Auvitu (signed, KHL), G Laurent Brossoit (signed with WPG), F Braden Christoffer (signed with Bakersfield Condors, AHL), F Grayson Downing (signed with Colorado Eagles, AHL), G Nick Ellis (retired), D Mark Fayne (signed to a PTO with BOS), F Brian Ferlin (retired), F Roman Horak (signed, KHL), F/D Joey LaLeggia (signed with STL), F Iiro Pakarinen (signed, KHL), F Kyle Platzer (signed with Charlotte Checkers, AHL), D Dillon Simpson (signed with CBJ), F Anton Slepyshev (signed, KHL), F Nolan Vesey (traded to TOR),

Still Unsigned: D Ben Betker, F Michael Cammalleri, D Darnell Nurse

Re-signed: F Ryan Strome

Offseason Analysis: The Edmonton Oilers put up 103 points on the board in 2016-17, General Manager Peter Chiarelli locked up Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl for $21 million a season combined.

Then they fell. Hard.

After making a return to the Stanley Cup Playoffs in 2017 for the first time since losing in Game 7 of the 2006 Stanley Cup Final to the Carolina Hurricanes, the Oilers missed the postseason in 2017-18.

Seventy-eight points. That’s not the worst, but it’s not great either. They weren’t even a bubble team. Edmonton finished 6th in the Pacific Division and they’re looking to climb before other teams climb over them– namely the Arizona Coyotes and their resurgence of youth.

Milan Lucic‘s second season as an Oiler wasn’t as productive as his first. Down from 50 points (82 GP) in his first year in Edmonton, Lucic amassed 10-24–34 totals in 82 games last season. His size might read “protection for McDavid”, but his game was off– pretty far off with his worst plus/minus (minus-12) since entering the league in 2007-08.

By default, thanks to snuggling up close to the salary cap, Chiarelli let many free agents walk. Anton Slepyshev was tendered a qualifying offer before the forward decided to return home to the KHL.

Ryan Strome was re-signed on a friendly two-year, $6.200 million contract ($3.100 million per season), meanwhile Darnell Nurse remains unsigned.

That’s right, 23-year-old restricted free agent defender, Darnell Nurse still doesn’t have a contract.

It’s fair to assume that most top-4 defenders reaching their prime would earn somewhere around $4.000 million a season on their next contract– and that’s probably what’s holding things up in Edmonton. The Oilers don’t have that kind of money– at least, they don’t have anything more than that to offer.

Nurse won’t attend training camp without a new deal signed, but it’s not Chiarelli’s first rodeo with an RFA holdout. There was Phil Kessel in Chiarelli’s early days as the Boston Bruins GM, then Torey Krug and Reilly Smith took until the eleventh hour to re-sign in Chiarelli’s final season with Boston.

Of course, of those three aforementioned players, Kessel was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Rumors have swirled about Edmonton’s desire to move a defender, whether it’s Nurse, Oscar Klefbom or someone else. Given their cap situation, it’d make sense– especially as they added Kevin Gravel and 2018 Stanley Cup winner with the Washington Capitals Jakub Jerabek for depth and signed Jason Garrison to a PTO.

Perhaps the Oilers’ emergency plan is staring us in the face? Then again, perhaps not. It’s hard to tell what the overall plan actually is in Edmonton, let alone what they’re going to do today or tomorrow.

In 2016-17, the Oilers had a plus-35 goal differential. It was their first positive goal differential since their Cup run in 2006. Last season, they were a minus-29.

A porous defense, lack of offensive depth past their first line and an over-reliance on starting netminder, Cam Talbot, added up to mediocrity.

Whereas last season’s expectations were set higher given 2017’s playoff run, this season’s forecast for Edmonton is served with a slice of reality. It’s going to be another long season. There’s no other way around it until Chiarelli digs himself out of cap hell again.

Offseason Grade: D+

The Nurse situation remains unresolved as training camp is soon to get underway, but at least Edmonton gets the benefit of the doubt on letting poor performers walk this offseason.

There’s only one problem– they didn’t do anything to bring better players in, nor does it look like head coach Todd McLellan‘s going to have any holes to fill with youth.