Tag Archives: Max Pacioretty

Vegas Golden Knights Forecast Through 40 Games

It’s not the most recent forecast, since the Vegas Golden Knights played Game 41 of their 2018-19 regular season on Saturday against the Los Angeles Kings.

Nevertheless, it’s time to take a quick check of the pulse of the Golden Knights– how their season has progressed so far and where it appears to be going from here.

Thanks to some extenuating circumstances, perhaps Vegas fans will forgive me for not being able to get around to their quick forecasted glance after 20 games played this season.

Why? Because it would’ve been pretty dismal and you don’t need that kind of negativity in your life.

Although, now at the halfway mark (officially after the game against the Kings, technically unofficially as of this forecast), things have improved, but with a few concerns remaining.

Nate Schmidt served his 20 game suspension for a performance enhancing drug and for the most part, Vegas’ blue line got the job done.

The team’s record wasn’t desirable, but guys like Shea Theodore and Colin Miller continued to rise past expectations in their ability– even more so now that Schmidt is back and solidified the defensive zone for the Golden Knights.

One thing that has plagued the team all season is subpar goaltending.

Marc-Andre Fleury isn’t getting any younger and Malcolm Subban regressed quite a bit from his debut season as a backup netminder at the NHL level last season.

Managing playing time in the crease is something to keep in mind and we’ll take a closer look in a minute.

For now, Vegas stands in a divisional spot in the playoffs in the Pacific. Not nearly as dominant as last season, but keeping up with the legitimate(?) playoff contenders in an otherwise weaker division compared to the rest of the league.

Without further ado, here’s a look at the remaining 42 games (now 41) on the season and what to expect from the latest forecast.

Keep in mind, there are many variables that can and will change what goes down from now through the end of the regular season in April, like trades, injuries, general lineup changes, roster moves and anything else unbeknownst to the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet that generates this forecast.

My degree is in communication– not math. It’s “not my fault”.

If a player meets the forecasted stats, then they’ve met expectations. If they exceed their forecasted stats, then they’ve exceed expectations.

And of course, if a player does not live up to the latest forecast, then something went awry (the player could’ve been injured, been unlucky or regressed– a.k.a. didn’t meet expectations).

Puck luck cannot be predicted, but general trends and estimated gut feelings can indicate a sense of what’s to come based on the results of each and every scoresheet night-in and night-out.

Vegas Golden Knights Forecast Through 40 Games (42 Games Remaining)

(Just click on the image if you’re having trouble seeing it– WordPress changed their layout so there’s no more slideshow options.)

Every set of blessings comes with a set of curses and this year, that rings truer more than ever before for the Golden Knights. Of course, it’s only their second season in franchise history, but it’s still true.

William Karlsson (24-26–50 expected totals) is having a “down” year compared to last season’s breakout career-year of 43 goals and 35 assists (78 points). Reaching the 50-point plateau is still respectable, but doesn’t scream any guarantees of being on the first line should the postseason roll around.

Head coach, Gerard Gallant, has enough top-six forward depth to play around with if Karlsson starts to head south, considering Alex Tuch‘s expected 22-28–50 totals, Paul Stastny‘s expected 14-22–36 totals and Max Pacioretty‘s expected 21-22–43 totals.

Despite the ever-consistent qualities of Jonathan Marchessault (27-33–60 expected totals) and Reilly Smith (17-32–49 expected totals), this year’s Golden Knights team point spread is more spread out.

As it is, while Marchessault should lead in goals (27), assists (30) and points (60) and Karlsson should be second in goals (24) and points (50), one would think Smith would be second or third in whatever stats Marchessault and Karlsson aren’t leading in.

However, Tuch’s expected point outcome (50) is tied with Karlsson for the second-most points behind Marchessault and Tuch is expected to rank third on Vegas’ roster in goals behind Marchessault and Karlsson with Smith a distant 5th behind Pacioretty’s 21 expected goals this season.

While the offense isn’t as impactful from the forwards, the blue line has really come into its own in Vegas.

Shea Theodore’s expected 8-29–37 totals will be the best of his teammates and fellow defenders in a Golden Knights uniform, leading Colin Miller (5-27–32 expected totals) and Nick Holden (7-17–24 expected totals).

Nick Holden. That’s right. Holden is ahead of Nate Schmidt (5-18–23 expected totals) in the latest forecast.

But that speaks to Holden’s resiliency in his career and the chemistry Gallant has found in his pairing every night– coupled, of course, with the fact that Holden is seeing more time on the ice (in the literal “games played” sense) than he has the last couple of seasons with the New York Rangers and Boston Bruins.

He is a durable top-four defender that’s still in his athletic prime and it is exactly that kind of depth that can take teams deep into a Stanley Cup Final run.

In goal, Marc-Andre Fleury should land around a 2.61 goals against average and .911 save percentage in a season in which he has been overworked thus far.

He will continue to be overworked unless Malcolm Subban regains his footing, Gallant argues for calling someone up from the Chicago Wolves (AHL) or Golden Knights General Manager George McPhee makes an acquisition for a suitable backup option if all else fails.

Fleury has played in 35 of the 40 games up to this forecast. He’s since played in 35 out of the 41 games played by the club this season.

Subban has played in six games and is 0-5-0 in that span. His expected outcomes are a 2.76 GAA and .907 SV%– both below average goaltending the backup role.

Whereas if Vegas wanted to try Oscar Dansk or Maxime Lagace without the pressures of coming into the dressing room in an emergency recall situation– unlike last season– a little healthy competition for the backup role might nudge Subban in the right direction and take off some of Fleury’s workload.

It’s not that Fleury can’t handle 50-plus games anymore as a starting goaltender, but rather, it’s just that he shouldn’t be relied on for about 85% of the games in the regular season as is his current going rate.

DTFR Podcast #137- His Hart Grew Three Sizes That Day

Nick and Connor review the Vegas Golden Knights draft history, praise Carter Hart’s NHL debut, talk about Scott Gordon’s introduction as interim head coach of the Philadelphia Flyers, as well as the Patrik Berglund situation, Whalers Night and a teaser 2019 IIHF World Junior Championship preview.

Merry Gritmas.

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes)Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

*Editor’s note: Paris is hosting the 2024 Summer Games and Los Angeles is hosting the 2028 Summer Games. The 2026 and 2030 Winter Games host cities have yet to be selected.

Bruins first line leads B’s to 4-1 win over Vegas

Secondary scoring had its fair share Sunday night at TD Garden, but league leader in goals, David Pastrnak is not done producing by any means as he added a goal and an assist in the Boston Bruins, 4-1, winning effort against the Vegas Golden Knights.

Jaroslav Halak (6-1-2, 1.72 goals against average, .945 save percentage in 11 games played) made 37 saves on 38 shots against (.974 SV%) in the win for Boston, while Malcolm Subban (2-1-0, 3.17 GAA, .885 SV% in 4 GP) turned aside 33 out of 37 shots faced for an .892 SV% in the loss for Vegas.

Both teams were playing their second game in two nights, with the Bruins having hosted the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday and the Golden Knights having visited the Montreal Canadiens as part of their four-game road trip.

Boston finished their four-game homestand, 3-1-0, while Vegas went 1-3-0 on their Eastern Conference swing.

The Bruins improved to 10-5-2 (22 points) on the season, good enough for 3rd in the Atlantic Division– tied in points for 2nd place with Toronto, but trailing by one regulation-plus-overtime win.

The Golden Knights fell to 7-10-1 (15 points) so far this season and remained in 7th place in the Pacific Division with the loss– four points ahead of the Los Angeles Kings from the basement of the division.

Bruce Cassidy made two changes to his lineup on the blue line as a result of an injury, but didn’t mix things up among the forwards. Cassidy announced Sunday morning that Brandon Carlo was “questionable” and would be a game-time decision with an upper body injury.

Jeremy Lauzon was an emergency recall on Sunday and would be in the lineup in place of Carlo if No. 25 in black-and-gold wasn’t ready to go.

Matt Grzelcyk slid up to the first defensive pairing with Zdeno Chara, as Lauzon played on the third pair with Steven Kampfer. Torey Krug and John Moore were left together from Saturday night.

Cassidy also indicated that he expected to talk with Tuukka Rask about his return from a personal leave of absence with a decision in place by Tuesday before the Bruins hit the road for a four-game road trip. Cassidy suspects Rask will rejoin the team on Tuesday, but wouldn’t commit to a definitive answer until having the appropriate time and place discussion with the goaltender.

Noel Acciari remained a healthy scratch on Sunday, with Urho Vaakanainen (concussion), Charlie McAvoy (concussion) and Kevan Miller (hand) still out of the lineup for Boston.

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Rushing through the neutral zone early in the first period, Danton Heinen worked the puck to Anders Bjork as the Bruins forwards entered the attacking zone. Bjork flipped the puck back to Heinen (2) for the game’s first goal as No. 43 tipped a redirection past Subban to give Boston a 1-0 lead at 2:54 of the first period.

Bjork (2) had the only assist on the goal.

Fellow third liner– and centering the line for the second straight game– Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson had a run in with the penalty calling threshold after he got his stick between the legs of Golden Knights forward and former Bruin, Reilly Smith.

Forsbacka Karlsson went to the box for tripping at 5:43 and Vegas went on the power play for the first time of the night. The Golden Knights failed to convert on the skater advantage.

Almost four minutes later, Pastrnak hooked Jonathan Marchessault and was sent to the sin bin at 9:27 of the first period. Vegas failed to score on the ensuing power play.

For the fifth time in three games, Kampfer found his way to the box with a tripping minor against Ryan Carpenter at 11:55, but the Golden Knights weren’t able to make the Bruins brass pay on the resulting skater advantage.

Late in the first period the Golden Knights caught Halak out of position and sent a chance through the slot that was intercepted by Moore as the Bruins defender was in the right place at the right time with his stick.

Moore then sent Sean Kuraly on rush back the other way and with a dump into the corner and Lauzon chasing, Subban came out of his crease to make a play on the loose puck– except Subban overcommitted.

With a gift sent by the hockey gods themselves, Lauzon (1) had the easiest conversion on his first career National Hockey League goal at 17:51 of the first period. Kuraly (2) and Moore (2) had the primary and secondary assists, respectively.

William Carrier tripped up David Krejci at 18:29 of the first period and gave the Bruins their first power play of the night.

Not to be outdone, while on a rush to the net, Brad Marchand got tripped by Subban in front of the goal, yielding a 5-on-3 skater advantage for Boston at 18:58 that would extend into the second period if the Bruins didn’t score by the end of the first.

Krejci dove to keep the puck in the zone as time was expiring in the opening frame and generated one last chance before the first intermission on all-around dominant 5-on-3 opportunity to close out the period.

After 20 minutes of game action, the Bruins led, 2-0, on the scoreboard and trailed the Golden Knights, 15-11, in shots on goal. Boston held onto an advantage in blocked shots (3-2), takeaways (5-4) and face-off win percentage (81-19). Vegas led in hits (11-6) after one period and both teams had one giveaway each.

Entering the dressing room for the first intermission the Golden Knights were 0/3 on the power play, while the Bruins were 0/2. That would change in the first minute of the second period.

Patrice Bergeron sent a pass to Pastrnak that got bent out of shape just enough by a Vegas defender for Pastrnak’s only option in the low slot to be to send the vulcanized piece of rubber back to Bergeron off a body.

From there, Marchand (6) was in front of the goal at the right time to receive a quick bumper pass from Bergeron and redirect the puck with elevation into the twine just as the power play was expiring.

Bergeron (16) and Pastrnak (7) had the assist’s on Marchand’s goal at 58 seconds of the second period and the Bruins led, 3-0.

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Midway through the middle frame, Alex Tuch stripped Moore of the puck in front of the Boston goal and prior to breaking into the trapezoid, Tuch slid a one-handed pass back to Cody Eakin (5) for a one-timer that beat Halak as Krug was out of position behind the play.

Vegas was on the scoreboard and cut the lead to two-goals as the B’s led, 3-1. Tuch (5) had the only assist on Eakin’s goal at 10:55 of the second period.

Late in the second period, Vegas again gave Boston a 5-on-3 power play for 42 seconds after Brayden McNabb was penalized for holding Marchand at 15:05 and Tomas Nosek was called for tripping Bergeron at 16:24.

The B’s did not convert on either power play opportunity.

Entering the second intermission, Boston led, 3-1, on the scoreboard and, 28-27, in shots on goal. Vegas had an advantage in blocked shots (6-5) and hits (17-13), while the Bruins led in takeaways (9-6), giveaways (7-3) and face-off win% (63-38). The Golden Knights were 0/3 on the power play after 40 minutes and Boston was 0/4.

Vegas notched another penalty as a team at 6:42 of third period having sustained a delay of game face-off violation bench minor infraction. Tomas Hyka served the penalty for the Golden Knights and the Bruins went on the power play.

The B’s did not convert on the ensuing advantage.

Moments later, Kuraly exchanged words with former teammate and current Golden Knights defender, Colin Miller, at 12:04 of third period and earned himself a minor penalty for roughing. Vegas did not score on the resulting power play.

Late in the third, the Golden Knights sent themselves back in momentum with two consecutive tripping penalties being called at the same time thanks to Max Pacioretty tripping Bergeron and Deryk Engelland subsequently getting his stick between the legs of Marchand and bringing the Bruins forward down at 15:40.

Boston converted on the 5-on-3 power play after working the puck around from Pastrnak to Krejci, then across the point to Krug for a bumper pass back to Pastrnak (16) whereby the league’s leading goal scorer one-timed a shot past Subban to give the Bruins a three-goal lead.

Krug (6) and Krejci (13) had the assists on Pastrnak’s power play goal at 16:08 of the third period and Boston led, 4-1.

At the final horn, the Bruins solidified a 4-1 victory with a 7-0-1 record when scoring first this season. Boston also improved to 8-0-0 when leading after two periods.

The B’s led in face-off win% 58-42 and the Golden Knights dominated just about every other statistical category after 60 minutes. Vegas led in shots on goal (38-37), blocked shots (8-7), giveaways (9-8) and hits (25-20).

Boston finished the night 1/7 on the power play, while the Golden Knights were powerless on the skater advantage, finishing 0/4 on Sunday night.

One consolation prize for the Vegas franchise is that through 100 regular season games in franchise history, the Golden Knights have the most wins among all expansion franchises in their first 100 regular season games with 58.

Sunday night was former Montreal Canadien and noted Bruins mood-killer, Max Pacioretty’s first matchup against the Bruins since being traded to Vegas, while it was also Danton Heinen and Sean Kuraly’s 100th career NHL games.

The Bruins carry a two-game winning streak heading onto the road for a four-game road trip beginning in Colorado (Nov. 14th) and swinging through Dallas (Nov. 16th), Arizona (Nov. 17th) and Detroit (Nov. 21st) before returning home for Black Friday’s matchup with the Pittsburgh Penguins.

DTFR Podcast #131- Hockey Plague

Pekka Rinne signed a two-year extension, John Stevens and Joel Quenneville were fired, Willie Desjardin’s back and there’s a new guy in Chicago (Jeremy Colliton), Philadelphia Flyers goaltending is in the news again, people in Ottawa are fired up about Uber, Lou Lamoriello reached 2,400 games as a GM as the New York Islanders lead the Metropolitan Division and is Halloween the new Thanksgiving? Nick and Connor discuss.

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes)Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

Game of the week: November 5-11

The first full week of November already has me looking forward to the NHL’s unofficial, yet statistically backed playoff qualification cutoff coming up only a couple weeks from now when the United States celebrates Thanksgiving.

Which teams are and aren’t among the league’s 16 best by November 22 will be heavily influenced by the 50 games taking place this week and the 48 on tap in the second half of this fortnight.

NHL SCHEDULE: November 5-11
TIME (ALL TIMES EASTERN) VISITOR HOST NATIONAL BROADCAST(S)/
Result
Monday, November 5
7 p.m. Dallas Boston 1-2 (OT)
7 p.m. Montréal Canadiens New York Islanders 4-3 (SO)
7 p.m. New Jersey Pittsburgh 5-1
7 p.m. Edmonton Washington 2-4
9 p.m. Philadelphia Arizona 5-2
Tuesday, November 6
7 p.m. Vegas Toronto 1-3
7 p.m. Montréal Canadiens New York Rangers 3-5
7 p.m. Dallas Columbus 1-4
7:30 p.m. New Jersey Ottawa 3-7
7:30 p.m. Vancouver Detroit 2-3 (SO)
7:30 p.m. Edmonton Tampa Bay 2-5
8 p.m. Carolina St. Louis 1-4
10:30 p.m. Anaheim Los Angeles 1-4
10:30 p.m. Minnesota San Jose 3-4
Wednesday, November 7
7:30 p.m. Pittsburgh Washington NBCSN, SN, TVAS
10 p.m. Nashville Colorado NBCSN
10:30 p.m. Calgary Anaheim
Thursday, November 8
7 p.m. Vancouver Boston
7 p.m. Edmonton Florida
7 p.m. Arizona Philadelphia
7:30 p.m. Buffalo Montréal RDS, TSN2
7:30 p.m. Vegas Ottawa RDS2
7:30 p.m. New York Islanders Tampa Bay Lightning
8:30 p.m. Carolina Chicago
8:30 p.m. San Jose Dallas
10:30 p.m. Minnesota Los Angeles SN
Friday, November 9
7 p.m. New Jersey Toronto TVAS
7 p.m. Columbus Washington NHLN, SN1
7:30 p.m. New York Rangers Detroit Red Wings
8 p.m. San Jose St. Louis
8 p.m. Colorado Winnipeg
10 p.m. Minnesota Anaheim SN
saturday, November 10
1 p.m. Vancouver Buffalo SN
1 p.m. Chicago Philadelphia NHLN
2 p.m. Nashville Dallas
7 p.m. Toronto Maple Leafs Boston Bruins CBC, NHLN, SN360
7 p.m. Vegas Montréal SN, TVAS
7 p.m. Ottawa Tampa Bay CITY
7 p.m. New York Islanders Florida Panthers
7 p.m. Arizona Pittsburgh
7 p.m. Detroit Carolina
7 p.m. New York Rangers Columbus Blue Jackets
10 p.m. Calgary Los Angeles CBC, SN, SN360
Sunday, November 11
3 p.m. Minnesota St. Louis SN1
5 p.m. Ottawa Florida TVAS
5 p.m. Arizona Washington
7 p.m. New Jersey Winnipeg NHLN, SN
7 p.m. Vegas Boston
9 p.m. Calgary San Jose SN360
9:30 p.m. Colorado Edmonton SN1

Just like every week, there’s more than a few solid options to choose from. There was at least five rivalries (Montréal at New York, Anaheim at Los Angeles, Pittsburgh at Washington, New York at Detroit and Toronto at Boston), three playoff rematches (Pittsburgh at Washington, Nashville at Colorado and Columbus at Washington) and more than a handful of player returns (LW Max Pacioretty potentially returning to Montréal with Vegas highlights that list, but don’t forget about G Anton Khudobin and D Brandon Manning heading back to Boston and Philadelphia, respectively) to choose from this very attractive list.

However, only one game can be chosen, so I might as well go with a contest that can check two boxes, right?

 

It’s a rivalry! It’s a playoff rematch! It’s everything we could ever dream of!

Maybe not the last part, but there’s no explanation needed these days to get excited for this matchup. Sidney Crosby versus Alex Ovechkin has been a hot ticket ever since they began playing against each other 13 years ago, as they’ve rekindled a rivalry that had been dormant since the turn of the millennium.

Tonight’s participants enter this game with identical 6-4-3 records, but they seem to be heading in opposite directions.

Currently occupying third place in the Metropolitan Division due to earning all six of their victories in regulation or overtime, the Pens are the team trending down at the moment. They’re riding a four-game losing skid, including two (one in regulation, another in a shootout) to the red-hot division-leading Islanders and a 5-0 home blanking at the hands of the Auston Matthews-less Maple Leafs.

In fact, if we add in the 5-1 home loss at the hands of the Devils on Monday, the Penguins have been outscored 10-1 in their last two games and 18-6 during this skid.

Yikes.

What makes this slump all the more puzzling is Pittsburgh just returned from a four-game road trip through Canada against three teams currently in playoff position that saw it bring home all eight possible points.

As evidenced by a -12 goal differential over their past four games (by far the worst in the NHL during this run), problems abound for the Penguins. However, the one that is most glaring to me is Pittsburgh’s anemic offense. Usually among the league’s best (it still is, statistically speaking – Pittsburgh is tied with St. Louis for the fourth-best attack for the entire season), the Pens are averaging only 1.5 goals per game since October 30 – tied with Carolina for worst in the league in that time.

If any one person is the problem, it’s certainly not D Jamie Oleksiak. The former Star has posted impressive 1-2-3 marks in his last four outings, all of which were registered at even-strength.

Instead, I think a major hole in the lineup is at the third-line center position, as Derick Brassard has landed himself another seat in the press box with a lower-body injury. In the eight games he’s played this season, he’s managed decent 1-4-5 totals, but his replacement, Riley Sheahan, has not done well filling in, as he has no points to his credit in his last four games.

To resolve this problem, Head Coach Mike Sullivan has returned Phil Kessel to his usual spot on the third line, as well as added in Jake Guentzel to try to spread the scoring across the lineup. Since Guentzel has been demoted to the bottom six as a result of not shooting enough on the top line, Sheahan having two eager goal scorers on his wing should hopefully help his production.

Meanwhile, the Capitals – the fourth-best team in the Metropolitan Division after taking tiebreakers into account – look like they could be starting to break out of the slump they seem to have started the season in. Washington has posted a 2-1-1 record in its past four games, earning points against current playoff teams in Calgary and Dallas.

Though defense was the name of the game this spring when the Caps claimed their first Stanley Cup, this recent winning run is a direct result of some stellar Washington offense. Weighing in as the ninth-best offense in the league since October 27 alongside Los Angeles, Washington has been averaging 3.5 goals per game.

Leading that charge has been exactly who you’d expect: Evgeny Kuznetsov and Ovechkin. Even without the incredible .266 points per game Tom Wilson has averaged for his career, Washington’s top line has reclaimed its rightful spot among the league’s best, as Kuznetsov and Ovechkin are averaging an assist and point per game, respectively.

If there’s still a problem with Washington’s offense, it’s that a lot of its work is being done on the power play. While it it is certainly impressive that the Caps have a 33.3 percent power play to show for their last four games (that’s fourth-best since October 27), the fact that Kuznetsov and Ovechkin have registered five of their combined nine points with the man-advantage shows that Washington still isn’t finding as much success in five-on-five situations that Head Coach Todd Reirden would like.

That’s an important thing for Pittsburgh to keep in mind this evening, especially since they’re sending 2-0-2 G Casey DeSmith into the fray. Since October 30, the Pens’ penalty kill has ranked seventh-worst with a 69.2 success rate, so it would be in their best interest to stay as far from the penalty box as possible.

Speaking of goaltenders, 4-3-2 G Braden Holtby is expected to be between the pipes tonight for Washington. He’ll pit his .888 save percentage and 3.62 GAA against DeSmith’s .932 and 2.25.

To say that either of these clubs has me feeling extremely comfortable would be a blatant lie. While Washington has certainly shown the better form of late, Holtby has been a far cry from the reliable starter he was only a couple seasons ago and the 2018 playoffs. Conversely, I think DeSmith playing for Pittsburgh could be just the change the Pens need to start getting their game back in line.

As such, I’ll take the Capitals to win a tight, 4-3 game that could require overtime.

DTFR Podcast #130- Boo: A Very Merry Boone Jenner Halloween (Part II: Pierre-Luc DuBOOis)

Injuries are scaring the masses across the league, while old ghosts haunt Colorado (then lose), the Los Angeles Kings’ reign of terror is spooked, Mark Borowiecki is back again, Nick and Connor do their best to talk about the Columbus Blue Jackets and the thing that goes bump in the night? That’s the Tampa Bay Lightning thundering their way to the top. We also reviewed Bohemian Rhapsody before it comes out.

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes)Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

DTFR Podcast #129- Top Line Stars

Nick and Connor talk Alex Tuch’s extension with the Vegas Golden Knights, superstars Auston Matthews, Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid, as well as Charlie McAvoy extension options, the New York Rangers, Boston’s first line vs. Colorado’s top line and the week’s biggest matchup.

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes)Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

DTFR Podcast #128- Celebration Hardcore Brother (a.k.a. Celly Hard Bro)

Nick and Connor rant about retired numbers, anniversary patches, showing emotion in hockey, the Toronto Maple Leafs and William Nylander, coaches that might get fired, “the code” and Mike Matheson’s antics.

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes)Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

DTFR Podcast #127- Tip Of The Hat(s)

John Tavares and Patrice Bergeron both had hat tricks in the last week, so Nick and Connor discuss hat trick ethics and more, since celebrations are hot topics these days. Also, everything else that happened in the first week of regular season action.

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes)Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

Vegas Golden Knights 2018-19 Season Projections

It’s forecasting season, well, actually it’s the regular season and I’m just a little behind, but until I pointed that out, you didn’t know I was behind on my little passion project here, did you?

I know I wrote “[i]n the coming days I’ll reveal what teams I’ll be forecasting/tracking all season long, so stay tuned because it’s about to get messier than ever before and I’m up for the challenge,” in my Boston Bruins 2018-19 forecast, but life and the fact that I’m moving all my data into a new format has slowed my turnaround for the time being.

Nevertheless, my Vegas Golden Knights forecast for 2018-19 is here and let’s pretend the first week of the regular season hasn’t already happened or something.

Additionally, if you’re wondering what other teams I’m preparing to post (before we get too far into the first quarter of the season) they are the Carolina Hurricanes and Columbus Blue Jackets.

I always keep tabs on the Bruins every year because I grew up a Boston fan and I decided to track Vegas last season because there hadn’t been nearly as much hype surrounding an expansion team since Columbus and the Minnesota Wild in 2000. Additionally, I’ve previously tracked the Arizona Coyotes simply because they follow us on Twitter (and I’ll get back around to them hopefully before season’s end, if you’re interested).

But I’m adding Carolina and Columbus to my forecast portfolio this season because 1) the Hurricanes are supposed to be better than last season, plus they have some exciting youth in the lineup and 2) a lot of Blue Jackets fans are also fans of our brand around here, so shouts 5th Liners.

Please be patient on the timeline for when I’ll get my Hurricanes and Blue Jackets forecasts posted– it’ll be by the end of the month for sure.

Anyway, on with the Golden Knights, shall we?


Vegas is coming off of their inaugural season having finished 1st in the Pacific Division with 109 points and a 51-24-7 record under head coach Gerard Gallant. Not only did they finish at the top of their division in their first season, but they did so with over 100 points and a 50-plus win season.

Oh yeah and they played the Washington Capitals in the 2018 Stanley Cup Final.

Despite the loss in five games to Washington, the Golden Knights were and still are well ahead of owner Bill Foley’s “Cup in three [seasons]” masterplan– what with General Manager George McPhee‘s offseason additions of Paul Stastny and Max Pacioretty and everything.

This year, of course, the competition has gotten a lot tougher. There are expectations now when opponents play the Golden Knights.

Gallant and his Vegas lineup are going to have to get more creative than ever before in franchise history to avoid the hangover of a Stanley Cup Final appearance run and to avoid getting too predictable.

Things are different now. They’re no longer the new kids on the block. They’re the 2018 Western Conference champions and a team to beat.

As always, I’d like to remind you my degree is in communication– not math– therefore anything that looks wrong is either adjusted with a little gut-feeling and/or Microsoft Excel’s fault. My expertise resides in the written, spoken and nonverbal language of communicating– not numbers on a spreadsheet.

These forecasted stats are to be seen as an utopian perspective, as though nothing bad could happen this season at any point to any player– where every player at least lives up to their forecast and then some.

Some will pan out and some will fall flat. It’s a suggested outcome for a sport that’s played on ice in a highly unpredictable collective environment of action and sheer puck luck.

vegas_golden_knights_logo

Vegas Golden Knights Forecast Through 0 Games (82 Games Remaining)

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After a breakout 78-point season (43 goals, 35 assists) for William Karlsson, the Golden Knights number-one center is prime for a respectable 41-point season as part of the natural regression of the game– unless Karlsson is truly an outlier, like he was coming from Columbus to Vegas last season.

Meanwhile, Reilly Smith (19-27–46 expected totals) and Jonathan Marchessault (28-35–63 expected totals) bolster the Golden Knights first line with respectable performances of their own, while the point spread has really been shared with the second line.

Newcomers Paul Stastny (22-43–65 expected totals) and Max Pacioretty (33-30–63 expected totals) are set to become the key contributors to the fiery Vegas offense in their first season with the club.

The Golden Knights top-six core of forwards is deeper than last season, whereas the majority of their offense was reliant upon Marchessault, Karlsson and Smith. This year there’s more emphasis on Alex Tuch and Erik Haula inside the top-nine.

On defense, Gallant’s crew will have to do without Nate Schmidt for the first 20 games of the season while Schmidt serves a suspension for a performance enhancing drug.

Luckily, Brad Hunt, Colin Miller and Shea Theodore are prime for an uptick in time-on-ice and production, with Hunt and Miller expected to reach the 30-point plateau, while offseason addition, Nick Holden should see a pleasant rebound from his 17 points split between the Bruins and New York Rangers last season to a 25-point effort in 2018-19 with Vegas, provided he can remain in the top-six on the depth chart.

Upon Schmidt’s return, he should still have 4-23–27 totals from the blue line, which is not great like last season’s 5-31–36 totals, but not terrible for a top-four defender.

In goal, Marc-Andre Fleury is expected to return to Earth from his superhuman season last year (a 2.24 goals against average and .927 save percentage in 46 games) to a 2.49 GAA and .913 SV% in 2018-19. As the Golden Knights starter continues to get older, limiting his workload to keep him fresher for the postseason is the way to go.

Granted, Fleury’s playing time was limited last season due to a concussion, he still went on to have solid regular season numbers and an impeccable 2018 Stanley Cup Playoff run up until the Stanley Cup Final.

Meanwhile, Malcolm Subban‘s 2.68 GAA and .910 SV% in 22 games played look to be improved upon to a 2.65 GAA and .911 SV% in somewhere around 30 appearances as the backup netminder for Vegas.

As always, we’ll get more into the goalies once the team has played through a quarter of the season.