Tag Archives: Matt Beleskey

Numbers Game: Boston Bruins 2017-2018 Projected Stats

Let’s ignore the first two games of the season that the Boston Bruins have already played and reset the clock to zero, because here’s a look at what is (was?) to be expected heading into this season for every player on the Bruins*.

*With some exceptions of course.

Unknown-7After being eliminated by the Ottawa Senators in the First Round of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Boston is looking for a deeper playoff run on the wings of the experience gained from those six extra games in April for David Pastrnak and the rest of their young crew.

Gut feeling dictates that Pastrnak and Brad Marchand will be as much of an offensive force as they were last season for Boston heading into this season, but what does the forecasting function in Microsoft Excel have to say about any of those bold predictions from this offseason on our podcast or otherwise?

As is tradition, my Bruins projections are presented below based on how every player on the roster has performed in their career leading up to this season. Players that have yet to play a game a regular season NHL game are not included in this first round of projections (denoted with “N/A” in most columns), but their stats will be included and accounted for about a quarter of the way through the regular season (roughly 20 games).

Yes, Charlie McAvoy played in the playoffs last season, but the fact of the matter is there is no true way to measure how his regular season will go based off of six career playoff games, wherein the pace of the game and many other variables are inherently different from regular season game-flow.

Or just give me some more time to come up with an excuse a more viable solution for projecting rookie’s stats prior to them taking the ice for the first time at the NHL level.

Sample size must always be kept in mind when glancing over these projections. A player who’s never played more than three career games (like Tommy Cross, for example) will reflect a tremendous value in projected assists if they’ve recorded even just one assist (again, like Providence Bruins all-time leader in games played, Tommy Cross) in those three games. This will fluctuate pending more appearances and/or throughout the season on its own (usually in the downward trend, unless said AHL player cracks the NHL roster full-time).

But for all the jokes, Tommy Cross is an excellent depth-defenseman/top-pair defenseman in the AHL to have. Shouts to him.

Additionally, please remember that my degree is in communication, not math, so I am by no means a wizard with numbers in Microsoft Excel and I’m sure my Corsi is terrible. Plus, you’re probably not a front office member or anyone who might have some credibility for statistical reasoning and advanced stats analysis in hockey, so take everything with a grain of salt before you complain that math is ruining “your” sport.

Unless you are some Corsi-god/NHL front office member and you’ve stumbled upon this, in which case, let’s start over. Hello, please ignore the last paragraph, my name is Nick and I’d like a job. Thanks.


On offense, the usual suspects for the Boston Bruins will remain the core components that push the team forward night-in and night-out. Patrice Bergeron should amass another 60-plus point season after having a “down year” last season with only 53 points in 2016-2017.

Pastrnak will lead the Bruins in points according to the latest models with 31-33-64 totals.

While Brad Marchand’s expected 31-29-60 totals this season rank fourth on the team’s projected scoring leaders behind Pastrnak (64), David Krejci (63) and Bergeron (62), it’s easy to imagine Marchand improving from his career best 39 goals, 46 assists (85 points) season last season and shattering his season-entering projections.

Gut Feeling 2.0 seems to point in the direction of Marchand leading in points, based off of last season, and Pastrnak leading in goals (as is shown in these numbers with Pastrnak and Marchand tied for the lead on the Bruins roster with 31 projected goals each this season).

Matt Beleskey and Frank Vatrano should each right their ships this season coming off of not-so-easy to return from leg injuries last season. Beleskey’s expected 14-16-30 totals would rank as his 3rd best season in his NHL career– with room to gain more ground– since appearing in two games with the Anaheim Ducks in 2008-2009.

Meanwhile, Vatrano (29 points projected in 2017-18), barring another injury, should finally partake in a full-season and become the glue-guy on the third line that he’s been expected to become after being a goal-a-game AHL player in his short career with Providence.

The Boston blue line looks retooled, restocked and ready to go.

Gone are John-Michael Liles, Colin Miller and Joe Morrow; in are the likes of Charlie McAvoy and Paul Postma. Liles has moved on to become a TV analyst for Altitude and Colorado Avalanche broadcasts while still technically an unrestricted free agent. Colin Miller was claimed by the Vegas Golden Knights at the 2017 Expansion Draft and Morrow signed with the rival Montreal Canadiens this offseason after not being tendered a qualifying offer.

McAvoy’s rookie season numbers will come fruition in the next 20 games or so, please give some time for an update on his projections, but until then, know this– he’s the real deal.

Nobody can possibly be the next Bobby Orr for Boston, since there’s only one Bobby Orr after all, but McAvoy likes to move the puck like Orr once did for the Bruins in the late 1960s and 1970s. And McAvoy’s got a tough element to his game too, like legendary Bruins defenseman, Eddie Shore, McAvoy can hit.

Postma is mainly an afterthought, but provides much needed depth for the long run.

Brandon Carlo looks to make an impact in his sophomore season and should continue to absorb any and all knowledge from 40-year-old captain, Zdeno Chara, as a shut-down pair. Yes, Chara is still a good defenseman. He’ll max out around 40 points this season with Carlo carrying more weight and the Bruins offense doing their part in keeping the puck out of the defensive zone to begin with.

Meanwhile, Torey Krug should an average year with 10 goals and 35 assists (45 points). Even an average year for Krug is still a better year than most defensemen.

And in other news, Tuukka Rask is still the number one goaltender for obvious reasons. He’s good.

More on Boston’s goalies as a whole in later posts throughout the season.

For now, Bruce Cassidy‘s Bruins are ready to fly– mostly because of Cassidy’s coaching style that emphasizes going full throttle all the time and not because bears have sprouted wings or anything.

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

 

 

2017 NHL Expansion Draft: Available Lists

30 of the NHL’s 31 teams submitted their protected lists on Saturday by 5 p.m. ET. The protected lists were made public at 10:30 a.m. ET (originally scheduled for 10 a.m.) on Sunday. Additionally, the available lists of players to choose from were released.

vegas_golden_knights_logo

The Vegas Golden Knights will now spend the next few days constructing their roster, with the full reveal set for Wednesday night during the NHL Awards Ceremony at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Vegas can choose from the following available players:

Anaheim Ducks

Forwards: Spencer Abott, Jared Boll, Sam Carrick, Patrick Eaves, Emerson Etem, Ryan Garbutt, Max Gortz, Nicolas Kerdiles, Andre Petersson, Logan Shaw, Nick Sorensen, Nate Thompson, Corey Tropp, Chris Wagner

Defensemen: Nate Guenin, Korbinian Holzer, Josh Manson, Jaycob Megna, Jeff Schultz, Clayton Stoner, Sami Vatanen

Goalies: Jonathan Bernier, Jhonas Enroth, Ryan Faragher, Matt Hackett, Dustin Tokarski

Arizona Coyotes

Forwards: Alexander Burmistrov, Shane Doan, Tyler Gaudet, Peter Holland, Josh Jooris, Jamie McGinn, Jeremy Morin, Mitchell Moroz, Chris Mueller, Teemu Pulkkinen, Brad Richardson, Garret Ross, Branden Troock, Radim Vrbata, Joe Whitney

Defensemen: Kevin Connauton, Jamie McBain, Zbynek Michalek, Jarred Tinordi

Goalies: Louis Domingue

Boston Bruins

Forwards: Matt Beleskey, Brian Ferlin, Jimmy Hayes, Alex Khokhlachev, Dominic Moore, Tyler Randell, Zac Rinaldo, Tim Schaller, Drew Stafford

Defensemen: Linus Arnesson, Chris Casto, Tommy Cross, Alex Grant, John-Michael Liles, Adam McQuaid, Colin Miller, Joe Morrow

Goalies: Anton Khudobin, Malcolm Subban

Buffalo Sabres

Forwards: William Carrier, Nicolas Deslauriers, Brian Gionta, Derek Grant, Justin Kea, Matt Moulson, Cal O’Reilly, Cole Schneider

Defensemen: Brady Austin, Mathew Bodie, Zach Bogosian, Justin Falk, Taylor Fedun, Cody Franson, Josh Gorges, Dmitry Kulikov

Goalies: Anders Nilsson, Linus Ullmark

Calgary Flames

Forwards: Brandon Bollig, Lance Bouma, Troy Brouwer, Alex Chiasson, Freddie Hamilton, Emile Poirier, Hunter Shinkaruk, Matt Stajan, Kris Versteeg, Linden Vey

Defensemen: Matt Bartkowski, Ryan Culkin, Deryk Engelland, Michael Kostka, Brett Kulak, Ladislav Smid, Michael Stone, Dennis Wideman, Tyler Wotherspoon

Goalies: Brian Elliott, Tom McCollum

Carolina Hurricanes

Forwards: Bryan Bickell, Connor Brickley, Patrick Brown, Erik Karlsson, Danny Kristo, Jay McClement, Andrew Miller, Andrej Nestrasil, Joakim Nordstrom, Lee Stempniak, Brendan Woods

Defensemen: Klas Dahlbeck, Dennis Robertson, Philip Samuelsson, Matt Tennyson

Goalies: Daniel Altshuller, Eddie Lack, Michael Leighton, Cam Ward

Chicago Blackhawks

Forwards: Kyle Baun, Andrew Desjardins, Marcus Kruger, Pierre-Cedric Labrie, Michael Latta, Brandon Mashinter, Dennis Rasmussen, Jordin Tootoo

Defensemen: Brian Campbell, Dillon Fournier, Shawn Lalonde, Johnny Oduya, Ville Pokka, Michal Rozsival, Viktor Svedberg, Trevor van Riemsdyk

Goalies: Mac Carruth, Jeff Glass

Colorado Avalanche

Forwards: Troy Bourke, Gabriel Bourque, Rene Bourque, Joe Colborne, Turner Elson, Felix Girard, Mikhail Grigorenko, Samuel Henley, John Mitchell, Jim O’Brien, Brendan Ranford, Mike Sislo, Carl Soderberg

Defensemen: Mark Barberio, Mat Clark, Eric Gelinas, Cody Goloubef, Duncan Siemens, Fedor Tyutin, Patrick Wiercioch

Goalies: Joe Cannata, Calvin Pickard, Jeremy Smith

Columbus Blue Jackets

Forwards: Josh Anderson, Alex Broadhurst, Matt Calvert, Zac Dalpe, Sam Gagner, Brett Gallant, William Karlsson, Lauri Korpikoski, Lukas Sedlak, T.J. Tynan, Daniel Zaar

Defensemen: Marc-Andre Bergeron, Scott Harrington, Jack Johnson, Kyle Quincey, John Ramage, Jaime Sifers, Ryan Stanton

Goalies: Oscar Dansk, Anton Forsberg, Joonas Korpisalo

Dallas Stars

Forwards: Adam Cracknell, Justin Dowling, Cody Eakin, Ales Hemsky, Jiri Hudler, Curtis McKenzie, Mark McNeill, Travis Morin, Patrick Sharp, Gemel Smith, Matej Stransky

Defensemen: Mattias Backman, Andrew Bodnarchuk, Ludwig Bystrom, Nick Ebert, Justin Hache, Dan Hamhuis, Patrik Nemeth, Jamie Oleksiak, Greg Pateryn, Dustin Stevenson

Goalies: Henri Kiviaho, Maxime Lagace, Kari Lehtonen, Antti Niemi, Justin Peters

Detroit Red Wings

Forwards: Louis-Marc Aubry, Mitch Callahan, Colin Campbell, Martin Frk, Luke Glendening, Darren Helm, Drew Miller, Tomas Nosek, Riley Sheahan, Ben Street, Eric Tangradi

Defensemen: Adam Almquist, Jonathan Ericsson, Niklas Kronwall, Brian Lashoff, Dylan McIlrath, Xavier Ouellet, Ryan Sproul

Goalies: Jared Coreau, Petr Mrazek, Edward Pasquale, Jake Paterson

Edmonton Oilers

Forwards: David Desharnais, Justin Fontaine, Matt Hendricks, Roman Horak, Jujhar Khaira, Anton Lander, Iiro Pakarinen, Tyler Pitlick, Zach Pochiro, Benoit Pouliot, Henrik Samuelsson, Bogdan Yakimov

Defensemen: Mark Fayne, Andrew Ference, Mark Fraser, Eric Gryba, David Musil, Jordan Oesterle, Griffin Reinhart, Kris Russell, Dillon Simpson

Goalies: Laurent Brossoit, Jonas Gustavsson

Florida Panthers

Forwards: Graham Black, Tim Bozon, Jaromir Jagr, Jussi Jokinen, Derek MacKenzie, Jonathan Marchessault, Colton Sceviour, Michael Sgarbossa, Reilly Smith, Brody Sutter, Paul Thompson, Shawn Thornton, Thomas Vanek

Defensemen: Jason Demers, Jakub Kindl, Brent Regner, Reece Scarlett, MacKenzie Weegar

Goalies: Reto Berra, Sam Brittain, Roberto Luongo

Los Angeles Kings

Forwards: Andy Andreoff, Justin Auger, Dustin Brown, Kyle Clifford, Andrew Crescenzi, Nic Dowd, Marian Gaborik, Jarome Iginla, Trevor Lewis, Michael Mersch, Jordan Nolan, Teddy Purcell, Devin Setoguchi, Nick Shore

Defensemen: Matt Greene, Vincent Loverde, Brayden McNabb, Cameron Schilling, Rob Scuderi, Zach Trotman

Goalies: Jack Campbell, Jeff Zatkoff

Minnesota Wild

Forwards: Brady Brassart, Patrick Cannone, Ryan Carter, Kurtis Gabriel, Martin Hanzal, Erik Haula, Zack Mitchell, Jordan Schroeder, Eric Staal, Chris Stewart, Ryan White

Defensemen: Victor Bartley, Matt Dumba, Christian Folin, Guillaume Gelinas, Alexander Gudbranson, Gustav Olofsson, Nate Prosser, Marco Scandella, Mike Weber

Goalies: Johan Gustafsson, Darcy Kuemper, Alex Stalock

Montreal Canadiens

Forwards: Daniel Carr, Connor Crisp, Jacob De La Rose, Bobby Farnham, Brian Flynn, Max Friberg, Charles Hudon, Dwight King, Stefan Matteau, Torrey Mitchell, Joonas Nattinen, Steve Ott, Tomas Plekanec, Alexander Radulov, Chris Terry

Defensemen: Brandon Davidson, Alexei Emelin, Keegan Lowe, Andrei Markov, Nikita Nesterov, Zach Redmond, Dalton Thrower

Goalies: Al Montoya

Nashville Predators

Forwards: Pontus Aberg, Cody Bass, Vernon Fiddler, Mike Fisher, Cody McLeod, James Neal, P.A. Parenteau, Adam Payerl, Mike Ribeiro, Miikka Salomaki, Colton Sissons, Craig Smith, Trevor Smith, Austin Watson, Colin Wilson, Harry Zolnierczyk

Defensemen: Taylor Aronson, Anthony Bitetto, Stefan Elliott, Petter Granberg, Brad Hunt, Matt Irwin, Andrew O’Brien, Adam Pardy, Jaynen Rissling, Scott Valentine, Yannick Weber

Goalies: Marek Mazanec

New Jersey Devils

Forwards: Beau Bennett, Michael Cammalleri, Carter Camper, Luke Gazdic, Shane Harper, Jacob Josefson, Ivan Khomutov, Stefan Noesen, Marc Savard, Devante Smith-Pelly, Petr Straka, Mattias Tedenby, Ben Thomson, David Wohlberg

Defensemen: Seth Helgeson, Viktor Loov, Ben Lovejoy, Andrew MacWilliam, Jon Merrill, Dalton Prout, Karl Stollery, Alexander Urbom

Goalies: Keith Kinkaid, Scott Wedgewood

New York Islanders

Forwards: Josh Bailey, Steve Bernier, Eric Boulton, Jason Chimera, Casey Cizikas, Cal Clutterbuck, Stephen Gionta, Ben Holmstrom, Bracken Kearns, Nikolay Kulemin, Brock Nelson, Shane Prince, Alan Quine, Ryan Strome, Johan Sundstrom

Defensemen: Calvin de Haan, Matthew Finn, Jesse Graham, Thomas Hickey, Loic Leduc, Scott Mayfield, Dennis Seidenberg

Goalies: Jean-Francois Berube, Christopher Gibson, Jaroslav Halak

New York Rangers

Forwards: Taylor Beck, Chris Brown, Daniel Catenacci, Jesper Fast, Tanner Glass, Michael Grabner, Marek Hrivik, Nicklas Jensen, Carl Klingberg, Oscar Lindberg, Brandon Pirri, Matt Puempel

Defensemen: Adam Clendening, Tommy Hughes, Steven Kampfer, Kevin Klein, Michael Paliotta, Brendan Smith, Chris Summers

Goalies: Magnus Hellberg, Antti Raanta, Mackenzie Skapski

Ottawa Senators

Forwards: Casey Bailey, Mike Blunden, Alexandre Burrows, Stephane Da Costa, Christopher DiDomenico, Nikita Filatov, Chris Kelly, Clarke MacArthur, Max McCormick, Chris Neil, Tom Pyatt, Ryan Rupert, Bobby Ryan, Viktor Stalberg, Phil Varone, Tommy Wingels

Defensemen: Mark Borowiecki, Fredrik Claesson, Brandon Gormley, Jyrki Jokipakka, Marc Methot, Patrick Sieloff, Chris Wideman, Mikael Wikstrand

Goalies: Mike Condon, Chris Driedger, Andrew Hammond

Philadelphia Flyers

Forwards: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Greg Carey, Chris Conner, Boyd Gordon, Taylor Leier, Colin McDonald, Andy Miele, Michael Raffl, Matt Read, Chris VandeVelde, Jordan Weal, Dale Weise, Eric Wellwood

Defensemen: Mark Alt, T.J. Brennan, Michael Del Zotto, Andrew MacDonald, Will O’Neill, Jesper Pettersson, Nick Schultz

Goalies: Steve Mason, Michal Neuvirth

Pittsburgh Penguins

Forwards: Josh Archibald, Nick Bonino, Matt Cullen, Jean-Sebastien Dea, Carl Hagelin, Tom Kuhnhackl, Chris Kunitz, Kevin Porter, Bryan Rust, Tom Sestito, Oskar Sundqvist, Dominik Uher, Garrett Wilson, Scott Wilson

Defensemen: Ian Cole, Frank Corrado, Trevor Daley, Tim Erixon, Cameron Gaunce, Ron Hainsey, Stuart Percy, Derrick Pouliot, Chad Ruhwedel, Mark Streit, David Warsofsky

Goalies: Marc-Andre Fleury

San Jose Sharks

Forwards: Mikkel Boedker, Barclay Goodrow, Micheal Haley, Patrick Marleau, Buddy Robinson, Zack Stortini, Joe Thornton, Joel Ward

Defensemen: Dylan DeMelo, Brenden Dillon, Dan Kelly, Paul Martin, David Schlemko

Goalies: Aaron Dell, Troy Grosenick, Harri Sateri

St. Louis Blues

Forwards: Kenny Agostino, Andrew Agozzino, Kyle Brodziak, Jordan Caron, Jacob Doty, Landon Ferraro, Alex Friesen, Evgeny Grachev, Dmitrij Jaskin, Jori Lehtera, Brad Malone, Magnus Paajarvi, David Perron, Ty Rattie, Scottie Upshall, Nail Yakupov

Defensemen: Robert Bortuzzo, Chris Butler, Morgan Ellis, Carl Gunnarsson, Jani Hakanpaa, Petteri Lindbohm, Reid McNeill

Goalies: Jordan Binnington, Carter Hutton

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forwards: Carter Ashton, Michael Bournival, J.T. Brown, Cory Conacher, Erik Condra, Gabriel Dumont, Stefan Fournier, Byron Froese, Yanni Gourde, Mike Halmo, Henri Ikonen, Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond, Tye McGinn, Greg McKegg, Cedric Paquette, Tanner Richard, Joel Vermin

Defensemen: Dylan Blujus, Jake Dotchin, Jason Garrison, Slater Koekkoek, Jonathan Racine, Andrej Sustr, Matt Taormina, Luke Witkowski

Goalies: Peter Budaj, Kristers Gudlevskis, Jaroslav Janus, Mike McKenna

Toronto Maple Leafs

Forwards: Brian Boyle, Eric Fehr, Colin Greening, Seth Griffith, Teemu Hartikainen, Brooks Laich, Brendan Leipsic, Joffrey Lupul, Milan Michalek, Kerby Rychel, Ben Smith

Defensemen: Andrew Campbell, Matt Hunwick, Alexey Marchenko, Martin Marincin, Steve Oleksy, Roman Polak

Goalies: Antoine Bibeau, Curtis McElhinney, Garret Sparks

Vancouver Canucks

Forwards: Reid Boucher, Michael Chaput, Joseph Cramarossa, Derek Dorsett, Brendan Gaunce, Alexandre Grenier, Jayson Megna, Borna Rendulic, Anton Rodin, Drew Shore, Jack Skille, Michael Zalewski

Defensemen: Alex Biega, Philip Larsen, Tom Nilsson, Andrey Pedan, Luca Sbisa

Goalies: Richard Bachman, Ryan Miller

Washington Capitals

Forwards: Jay Beagle, Chris Bourque, Paul Carey, Brett Connolly, Stanislav Galiev, Tyler Graovac, Liam O’Brien, T.J. Oshie, Zach Sill, Chandler Stephenson, Chrisitan Thomas, Nathan Walker, Justin Williams, Daniel Winnik

Defensemen: Karl Alzner, Taylor Chorney, Cody Corbett, Darren Dietz, Christian Djoos, Tom Gilbert, Aaron Ness, Brooks Orpik, Nate Schmidt, Kevin Shattenkirk

Goalies: Pheonix Copley, Philipp Grubauer

Winnipeg Jets

Forwards: Marko Dano, Quinton Howden, Scott Kosmachuk, Tomas Kubalik, J.C. Lipon, Shawn Matthias, Ryan Olsen, Anthony Peluso, Chris Thorburn

Defensemen: Ben Chiarot, Toby Enstrom, Brenden Kichton, Julian Melchiori, Paul Postma, Brian Strait, Mark Stuart

Goalies: Michael Hutchinson, Ondrej Pavelec

Down the Frozen River Podcast #54- Master Predictor

Nick and Connor discuss the lack of NHL players in the 2018 Winter Games, Brad Marchand and his antics, the battle for the final playoff spot and a Western Conference playoff prediction edition of the podcast. Calgary Flames puns are made and a feeble attempt at becoming commentators of The Masters are included.

Boston Through 60 (2016-2017)

Raise your hand if you’ve been staying up late for the last week to watch Bruins games without having one sip of coffee to do so. Anyone? No? Just me. Okay then.

Anyway, here’s a look at the way things stand after 60 games (through Wednesday night’s action in Anaheim) for the Boston Bruins.

Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak are in the fight of their lives to lay claim to the status as the best goal scorer for the Bruins this season. Marchand is on track to edge Pastrnak in the scoring race this season with Boston with 72 points to Pastrnak’s 64. However, Pastrnak is apt to leading Marchand in goals scored at season’s end, as shown below.

Additionally, the line of Patrice Bergeron, Marchand and David Backes has shown signs of being like the days of Bergeron, Marchand and Mark Recchi at times. More statistical evaluation, as well as the eye test, will yield further analysis, but there’s something promising about the likes of Bergeron and Marchand working with the power forward who’s not afraid to go to the net (Backes) in the chemistry that seems natural.

David Krejci and Pastrnak have appeared to have found their own peanut butter and jelly in 21-year-old rookie Peter Cehlarik. Simply put, I wish we could get a full season of the 83-46-88 line.

Other bright spots include career years for Frank Vatrano and Torey Krug, as well as a tremendous offensive output for the usually goal scoring inept, Adam McQuaid— everything is relative, keep in mind.

On pace for three goals, McQuaid is in the midst of perhaps his most all around season as the guy who’s lovable in the locker room, will beat you up on the ice and knows and plays his role well enough to contribute when he can in a full 60 minute effort.

The continued transition from Claude Julien to Bruce Cassidy will show more results in the next 20 games, but as shown in the data so far, the Cassidy era Bruins will be better off at offensive production and efficiency.

After deciding on a backup (though Don Sweeney has indicated an interest in acquiring a backup at the trade deadline on March 1st, if available), the Bruins are rolling with Anton Khudobin playing behind Tuukka Rask.

Rask might end up appearing in 69 games this season, which, granted is better than 70+ games, is still not ideal for balancing work and play (or more appropriately, rest). He is still on pace for a GAA of 2.12 and a save percentage of .923. Both of which are impressive in light of the last couple of seasons.

Unknown-7

Boston Bruins Projections- Through game 60 of 82

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

For comparison, here’s how the Bruins were projected to do at Game 0 of 82 (prior to the start of the 2016-2017 regular season):

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

Boston Through 40 (2016-2017)

By: Nick Lanciani

In another rendition of my season long look at projected Boston Bruins stats, here’s how things are going through 40 games played (yes, I know, I’m a little late to posting this, but hey, life is kind of going on outside of the Internet, ya know).

Despite cooling off as of late, David Pastrnak is still on pace for a career year to remember in Boston. A slow year for Patrice Bergeron is still a lot better year than all of our years combined. Given the eye test as of late, Brad Marchand is waking up, despite what his 22-35-57 projected totals say.

Across the roster, the Bruins are dominating the Corsi for% game. The only problem is that they’re having a hard time converting immense offensive production and efficiency into goals. Additionally, plus-minus is not Boston’s best friend right now, despite having stellar nights in and out from Tuukka Rask in goal. While Rask has been outstanding, that whole “goals in, goals out” model doesn’t appear to be working for the skaters in front of him in goal differential and the like.

Boston’s rookie trio of Austin Czarnik, Anton Blidh and Brandon Carlo look to be contributors down the remaining stretch, but don’t look for their play to show up in the points column too much. Instead, take your eye off the puck, because that’s where they reside, setting up the big plays.

Finally, about the Bruins goalies…

Rask shouldn’t play upwards of 60 games, but if he has to, this year appears to be an acceptable year to do so.

Anton Khudobin was sent to Providence after having played thus far worse than he did in nine games last season with the Anaheim Ducks before being sent to San Diego.

With a few more games under his belt, Zane McIntyre should come into his own on the NHL level. Until then, the 10-0-0 goalie in the AHL so far this year is still looking for his first win in the NHL (which would certainly help my forecast function in Excel and allow me to say more).

Standard disclaimer:

“Keep in mind, every stat is based off of a player’s entire career and may not reflect well with the other stats projected for this current season (a.k.a. goals + assists might not equal the number of points shown in the points category), because again, each stat is forecasted individually.

Italics indicates a player currently with their respective AHL affiliate. Underlined player stats indicate a player on the IR (which, admittedly, I’ll do my best to keep up with, but might not have perfect every time, so forgive me if I mistakenly label an injury or fail to label one entirely).”

Unknown-7

Boston Bruins Projections- Through game 40 of 82

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

For comparison, here’s how the Bruins were projected to do at Game 0 of 82 (prior to the start of the 2016-2017 regular season):

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

*I keep saying I’m going to get around to projecting stats for the Arizona Coyotes and I really do mean it. These things take some time by hand, so please forgive me. It’ll probably be some time soon(ish).*

 

Boston Through 20

By: Nick Lanciani

Hey guys, below you’ll see a look at my current projections for Boston Bruins skaters and goaltenders through 20 games into the season. Compared with the projections entering this season, David Pastrnak is a bright spot for the Bruins, Patrice Bergeron is off to a slow start (and that will affect his season totals) and well, they’re a team that’s capable of being the team that they currently are (outside of a playoff spot).

If you’re big into plus-minus, then you might want to look away from my Boston projections for their remaining 62 games (okay 61 now technically, with their loss to Calgary on Friday night, but that game was not included in any of my calculations).

I’ll have an updated look at how the B’s are progressing through 40 games played when the time comes. Likewise, I’ll have a look at the Arizona Coyotes through 20 games, hopefully in the next few days (if not, it’s because I’m busy presenting my Corsi capstone project— wish me luck, I guess).

And as I always write:

“Keep in mind, every stat is based off of a player’s entire career and may not reflect well with the other stats projected for this current season (a.k.a. goals + assists might not equal the number of points shown in the points category), because again, each stat is forecasted individually.

Italics indicates a player currently with their respective AHL affiliate. Underlined player stats indicate a player on the IR (which, admittedly, I’ll do my best to keep up with, but might not have perfect every time, so forgive me if I mistakenly label an injury or fail to label one entirely).”

Unknown-7

Boston Bruins Projections- Through game 20 of 82

Bruins forwards

Screen Shot 2016-11-26 at 2.26.51 AM.png

Bruins goalies

Screen Shot 2016-11-26 at 2.27.02 AM.png

Corsi for% projections for Boston roster skaters

Screen Shot 2016-11-26 at 2.27.12 AM.png

For comparison, here’s how the Bruins were projected to do at Game 0 of 82 (prior to the start of the 2016-2017 regular season):

 

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

November 8 – Day 27 – Could there be any other?

Happy Tuesday! For me, that means band rehearsal, but you get to kick back and watch some hockey. You’ve picked the right night to do that, as there’s quite a selection of games to choose from, starting with five at 7 p.m. (Carolina at New Jersey, Vancouver at the New York Rangers, Detroit at Philadelphia, Edmonton at Pittsburgh and San Jose at Washington), followed half an hour later by two more (Los Angeles at Toronto [TVAS] and Boston at Montréal [RDS]). 8 p.m. marks the beginning of a couple more contests (Ottawa at Nashville [RDS2] and Dallas at Winnipeg), with Arizona at Colorado, this evening’s nightcap, dropping the puck an hour later. All times eastern.

I know we just watched them last night, but we’re going to hop on the Bruins‘ plane to Montréal to catch them take on the best team in the league in one of the best rivalries in North America.

Unknown-7Unknown-1

 

The last time these two met, Montréal upset the Bruins 4-2 in the TD Garden. Don’t think for a moment that Boston has forgotten.

These are two proud franchises, with 30 Stanley Cups between them, and the rivalry between requires no introduction.

As stated yesterday, the 7-5-0 Bruins‘ strength is found between the pipes and along the blue line. They have allowed 32 goals so far this season, led by 7-1-0 Tuukka Rask‘s .941 save percentage and 1.74 GAA. So good has Rask been that he’s earned two shutouts even when facing 29.7 shots per game, the 13th-fewest allowed by a team’s defense in the NHL.

While 13th is far from the top of the list, it is probably better than most would consider the Bruins‘ defense to be. So far this season, they’ve been led by Brandon Carlo and Zdeno Chara, who have 30 and 26 blocks respectively.

The defense has been especially good on the penalty kill, refusing to yield a goal on 84.3%  of opposing man-advantages, the ninth-best rate in the best hockey league in the world.

Their opposition this evening are the 10-1-1 Canadiens. While they’ve played fantastically so far on both ends of the ice, I’m most impressed with their offense, which has managed 39 goals in 12 games (3.25 per game).

Twenty Habs have notched a point so far this season (including goaltender Al Montoya!), but the two that have really stood out have been center Alex Galchenyuk and defenseman Shea Weber, who have 11 and 10 points respectively. In addition, Torrey Mitchell has struck five goals so far for Le Bleu-Blanc-Rouge to lead the club.

Some players to keep an eye on include Boston‘s Brad Marchand (14 points [tied for fourth-most in the league] on nine assists [tied for seventh-most in the NHL]), David Pastrnak (eight goals [tied for the league-lead] and a +11 [tied for sixth-best in the NHL]) and Rask (seven wins [tied for second-most in the league], two of which are shutouts [tied for third-most in the NHL], on a 1.74 GAA [fifth-best in the league] and .941 save percentage [sixth-best in the NHL]) & Montréal‘s Carey Price (.952 save percentage [second-best in the league] for a 1.57 GAA [fourth-best in the NHL] and seven wins [tied for second-most in the league], one of which was a shutout [tied for seventh-most in the NHL]) and Weber (+15 [leads the league]).

It looks like most books are closed in Vegas regarding this game, which should always get a hockey fan excited. What makes this matchup even more tantalizing is it’s location, as the Canadiens are a perfect 7-0-0 at the Bell Centre, but five of Boston‘s seven wins have been away from the TD Garden. It should be a good contest, but I’m leaning towards a Montréal victory.

Hockey Birthday

  • Johnny Bower (1924-) – Known in his day as “The China Wall,” Bower was the goaltender to win four of Toronto‘s 13 Stanley Cups. The two-time Vezina winner played 522 games over 15 seasons, and was inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame in 1976 with a career 250-195-90 record.
  • Keith Jones (1968-) – This right wing played 491 games over nine seasons, most of which were with Washington – the team that drafted him. Nowadays, Jones spends his days with the NBCSN studio crew and providing color and analysis for the Flyers‘ local broadcasts. Maybe Philadelphia will give him a victory over Detroit for his 48th.

Yesterday’s Game of the Day was our fourth-straight lopsided victory, as Boston beat Buffalo 4-0.

After a scoreless first period, Marchand (Pastrnak and Third Star of the Game Matt Beleskey) scored a power play wrister that proved to be the game-winner 5:44 into the middle frame.

Second Star David Krejci (Torey Krug and Ryan Spooner), Riley Nash and Pastrnak (Austin Czarnik and John-Michael Liles) accounted for the three insurance goals.

First Star Rask saved all 32 shots he faced to earn the shutout victory, while Robin Lehner saved 38-of-42 (90.5%) in the loss.

Boston‘s victory extends the home teams’ advantage to six points in the DtFR Game of the Day series with a record of 16-10-3.

Vesey’s Pieces

By: Nick Lanciani

Bad forced play-on-word attempts are my middle name, so in “Vesey’s Pieces” I take a look at what teams have the right pieces in place to lock up Jimmy Vesey on August 15th (if he doesn’t re-sign with the Buffalo Sabres before then).

Here’s a list of teams that could sign Vesey:

Anaheim Ducks, Arizona Coyotes, Boston Bruins, Buffalo Sabres, Calgary Flames, Carolina Hurricanes, Chicago Blackhawks, Colorado Avalanche, Columbus Blue Jackets, Dallas Stars, Detroit Red Wings, Edmonton Oilers, Florida Panthers, Las Vegas, Los Angeles Kings, Minnesota Wild, Montreal Canadiens, Nashville Predators, New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders, New York Rangers, Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins, St. Louis Blues, San Jose Sharks, Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vancouver Canucks, Washington Capitals, Winnipeg Jets

Yes, that list includes Las Vegas, because wouldn’t it be funny if Jimmy Vesey decided to wait another year just to mess with everyone and give him 31 options instead of 30?

Also, I know the salary cap exists, but teams are allowed to exceed the cap by 10% without facing penalty in the offseason. By training camp each organization must be cap compliant, meaning that any team could sign Vesey to the maximum amount of $925,000 on August 15th and spend the rest of the offseason figuring out who they’ll trade or send down to the AHL to fit under the salary cap.

Realistically, let’s take a look at who’s in play, shall we?

The fact of the matter is that Jimmy Vesey’s agent seems to confirm just about anything that’s been asked. Are the Bruins interested? Are the Blackhawks interested? Are the Sabres interested? Is Toronto interested? Does Jimmy think a hot dog is a sandwich?

All of these questions seem to be met with a “yes” or “there’s a mutual interest something something they’re expected to be on the short list something something get out of here with your hot dog takes.”

Enough foolishness aside, Colby Kephart and I agreed on Tuesday in a private conversation that we’re both tired of the media circus that’s become the Vesey Decision 2016. It’s nothing against Vesey as a player, or his right to explore all of his options per the collective bargaining agreement in the manner that he is, but rather it’s the hype that we’re annoyed about.

Nobody is questioning his ability, having amassed 24-22-46 totals in 33 games this season with the Harvard Crimson and 32-26-58 totals the year before that in 37 games played. That’s 104 points in 70 games over his final two seasons with the Crimson, if you can’t do the math. Vesey’s numbers have grown and his playing style has developed as he’s gone through four years at Harvard, in the midst of one of the greatest college hockey cities in the United States- all while not being put against Hockey East universities on the regular, mind you.

That’s not to discredit the ECAC either. Vesey is a college standout. He’s the real deal, but like any prospect, there’s a chance he won’t make as much of an impact as one would expect.

And that is what hinges me from being able to say without a doubt he’s apt to be going to one team or another, because it all depends on how much of a risk teams are willing to take.

Could he sign with his hometown team in Boston? Absolutely, but it’s not like the Bruins won’t be fine offensively if they don’t sign Vesey. Their top-six forwards are Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, David Krejci, Matt Beleskey, David Backes and/or Frank Vatrano (which technically breaks the rules of limiting the discussion to just six players if one includes Vatrano).

Would a solidified top-nine make the Bruins a better team? I guess you could say so, but that does nothing to improve their defense.

Buffalo has been trying their hardest to keep Vesey around longer than just for this summer with their Jack Eichel diplomacy, but even there, it’s not like they’ll be that much better of a team or that much worse if they lose out on Vesey for only the cost of a third round pick. Keep in mind Boston traded a third round pick for Zac Rinaldo after all.

The Sabres have a quality roster with the addition of Kyle Okposo this offseason and rising sophomore Eichel and friends. Tim Murray’s been making the right moves as their general manager and this could be the season that they get back into the playoffs if they play their cards right, their guys stay healthy and the right additions without subtracting reveal themselves throughout the season.

They won’t lead the Atlantic Division, because hello, the entire state of Florida is good at hockey right now. Yet Buffalo will definitely be more competitive against a weakened, P.K. Subban-less Montreal Canadiens, the Ottawa Senators (who’ll end up overpaying Cody Ceci, just watch), Detroit Red Wings (who’ll probably miss the playoffs for the first time in forever) and Bruins (what’s a defense).

As for Chicago, what are the odds that Vesey will win the Cup in his first season if he signs with them? Pretty great probably, but what are the odds that he’d get traded that offseason or in his first few years in the league from the Blackhawks? Also pretty good, since his last name isn’t Kane, Toews, Panarin, or Hossa (or any of their other core guys).

It’s hard to crack the core in Chicago, even if they are to move Marian Hossa in the coming season(s). But it also looks like poor salary cap management may finally be catching up to them, ignoring the fact that this is what is said every other year about the Blackhawks.

The Maple Leafs seem to be largely at play, what with Auston Matthews being a main attraction and Vesey’s family ties to the organization. While we’re on the subject of Toronto, why not take a look at the Arizona Coyotes who have done everything the Maple Leafs have dreamed of in one offseason at this point?

There’s a great chance he’ll end up with an Original Six team, because that’s where it seems his interest resides. In the end it’s all about the best fit, which could sway Vesey to a team like the Coyotes where he has the chance to standout on the roster and against other teams, if that’s what he’s after. Or he could stay with the Sabres.

Then again, he’ll probably sign with a team none of us expected him to sign with and disappoint every fanbase that was on edge, awaiting a signature on a piece of paper with their team’s logo on it.

But hey, for the record, I’ve never had Reese’s Pieces which might shock you even more than Jimmy Vesey getting your hopes up and signing with a different team. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

March 18 – Day 155 – Boston brings back Beleskey

Thanks to two goals in the second period, the Nashville Predators beat the New York Islanders 4-2 in yesterday’s Game of the Day.

It was a Second Star of the Game James Neal wrister that opened the scoring (his 27th tally of the season), finding the net at the 9:15 mark after an assist from Calle Jarnkrok.

The Isles waited to level the score util 6:02 had passed in the second period.  It was Ryan Pulock’s first goal of the season in his eighth career NHL game played, assisted by John Tavares (his 30th helper of the season).  The Predators didn’t take kindly to being the first to allow a goal to him though, as they had a two goal lead within 3:52 after his score.  Third Star Ryan Ellis scored the first of those tallies at the 8:13 mark on the power play, assisted by First Star Ryan Johansen (his 36th helper of the season) and Mattias Ekholm, followed 1:41 later by Johansen’s game-winning wrister, assisted by Neal (his 19th helper of the season) and Anthony Bitetto.  Just as quickly as the Nashville blitz began, it ended, giving the Predators a 3-1 lead going into the second intermission.

Only 1:55 into the third, Brock Nelson’s 23rd tally of the season pulled New York within a goal, assisted by Thomas Hickey.  The comeback fell apart though, as Austin Watson’s wrister found the back of an empty net, assisted by Mike Fisher and Colin Wilson (his 17th helper of the season), clinching the Preds‘ victory.

Pekka Rinne earns the win after saving 20 of 22 shots faced (90.9%), while Thomas Greiss takes the loss, saving 28 for 31 (90.3%).

After yesterday’s result, the DtFR Game of the Day series stands at 69-40-16, favoring the home squads by 30 points over the roadies.

We’ve got six games on the schedule this Friday, starting with the first to at 7 p.m. eastern (Ottawa at Buffalo [RDS/Bell TV] and Nashville at Washington [TVAS]).  Chicago at Winnipeg starts at 8 p.m. eastern (NHLN), and another pair trails an hour later (Colorado at Calgary and Vancouver at Edmonton).  Finally, this evening’s nightcap, Boston at Anaheim, drops the puck at 10 p.m. eastern (SN1).

Half of the games taking place this evening are divisional rivals (Ottawa at Buffalo, Chicago at Winnipeg and Vancouver at Edmonton), and two are between teams currently qualified for the playoffs (Nashville at Washington and Boston at Anaheim).

Our attention is attracted to the BostonAnaheim game for two reasons:

  1. Matt Beleskey will be making his first return to Anaheim as a member of the Bruins
  2. It’s Nick’s birthday, so he’s made a special request!

UnknownUnknown

 

 

 

This will be Boston‘s 17th appearance in the Game of the Day series, where they own a 7-8-1 record.  Their most recent appearance was March 8, a one-goal overtime victory in Tampa Bay.  Anaheim has been featured seven times before tonight’s game, and own a 4-1-2 record in the series, with their most recent being their 3-2 victory in Los Angeles on March 5.

The main reason for tonight’s selection was not only the expected quality of the contest, but also the return of an ex-Duck with seven years tenure on The Pond.  Matt Beleskey was drafted by the Ducks in the fourth round of the 2006 NHL Entry Draft.  He made his first appearance on the Pond two years later, but began earning regular time with the senior club in the 2010-’11 campaign.  It was that season that he scored 11 NHL goals, which stands as the second most during his time in Anaheim and third most in his career.

That 2010-’11 season arguably stood as his best until his 2013-’14 campaign, where he scored 24 points, including 15 assists – and things have only been looking up since.  Last season, he scored a career high 22 goals and 10 assists (his first double-double, if you’ll allow me to use some March Madness terminology), which he followed with eight playoff goals (half a goal a playoff contest) before the Ducks were eliminated by the Blackhawks, prompting him to test free agency.  The Bruins were impressed, and signed him to a $19.8M contract over five years.

He’s certainly earned that payday so far, as the 33 points he already has to his credit is the best of his career.  He’s gotten to that point by scoring 13 goals, and earning 20 helpers to boot.

To be honest, the real reason I know he’s good is he’s on my fantasy team.  And I only sign quality talent for my best in the league 17-4-0 squad.  You can take that analysis to the bank.

The 39-24-8 Boston Bruins currently occupy second in the Atlantic Division and fourth in the Eastern Conference.  They’ve earned that position by playing the third best offense in the league, but that’s been paired with the 13th worst defense.

Led by Patrice Bergeron’s 237 shots, the Bruins have fired the puck 2221 times, with 9.5% finding the back of the net for 215 goals (led by 34 Brad Marchand’s 34 tallies), third most in the league.  The power play is just a step behind, as their 21.5% power play success rate, good for 43 extra man goals, ranks seventh best in the league.

Even with Dennis Seidenberg’s 133 blocks, the Bruins have allowed 2190 shots to reach 28-19-7 Tuukka Rask and co., of which they’ve collectively saved 91.8% for 191 goals against, the 13th most in the league.  Although the defense a whole hasn’t played well, the penalty kill ranks 10th best with their 82.05% kill rate that has allowed only 42 power play goals against.  Further improving on that rate, the Bruins have scored nine shorthanded goals (led by Marchand’s four shorties), four more than the league average.

Boston most recently played Tuesday to a 3-2 loss in San Jose.  With a win tonight, the Bruins could pull within a point of the division leading Panthers.

The 38-22-9 Anaheim Ducks are currently the second best team in the Pacific Division, and fifth in the Western Conference.  To get to that position, they’ve played the third best defense in the league, but have scored the sixth fewest goals.

Led by Hampus Lindholm’s 102 blocks, the Ducks have allowed only 1884 shots to reach 19-9-6 Frederik Andersen and co., of which they’ve collectively saved 91.9% for only 162 goals against, the third fewest in the league.  That success no doubt continues with the special teams, as their 87.04% kill rate is the stingiest in the league, allowing only 32 power play goals.

The offense is what was holding Anaheim back in the beginning of the season, but that issue has certainly been resolved.  That being said, even with Corey Perry’s 186 shots leading the Ducks to 2100 attempts, they’ve only connected on 8.2% for 175 goals (led by Perry’s 29), the sixth fewest in the league.  Anaheim‘s special team play continues its success with the puck on its stick, as their 23.19% power play success rate, good for 48 power play goals (led by Perry’s 11), is the second best rate in the league.

Anaheim lost their most recent game 2-1 to the Rangers on Wednesday.  The most important thing a win does tonight for the Ducks is give them a three point lead over the Sharks for second place in the division.

Anaheim has already made their yearly visit to the TD Garden, and they certainly enjoyed it, winning 6-2 on January 26.

Some players to keep an eye on in tonight’s game include Anaheim‘s Andersen (2.23 GAA [eighth best in the league]) or John Gibson (2.07 GAA [second best in the league]) and Boston‘s Marchand (34 goals [fourth most in the league] and +22 [10th best in the league]).

This should be an interesting game, as Boston‘s offense and Anaheim‘s defense are about equal in strength.  Over the course of the entire season, Boston‘s defense has been stronger than the Ducks‘ offense, but I’m not feeling confident enough in that for a game on The Pond.  I’ll give a slight edge to Anaheim.

Down the Frozen River Podcast #17- Many Things

The Down the Frozen River crew covered a lot of topics the week before Thanksgiving in the United States. Hear what they have to say about the latest news and notes from around the NHL in this week’s #DTFRPodcast.

Join the conversation, make a suggestion, or ask a question for our next podcast using #AskDownTheFrozenRiver or #DTFRPodcast on Twitter and/or drop us a line on Facebook– your thoughts might make it on our show!