Tag: Markus Nutivaara

  • Florida Panthers 2021-22 Season Preview

    Florida Panthers 2021-22 Season Preview

    2020-21 record 37-14-5, 79 points

    2nd in the Discover NHL Central Division

    Eliminated in the First Round by Tampa

    Additions: F Zac Dalpe, F Maxim Mamin, F Sam Reinhart (acquired from BUF), F Joe Thornton, G Christopher Gibson

    Subtractions: F Alexander Wennberg (signed with SEA), D Vladislav Kolyachonok (traded to ARI), D Anton Strålman (traded to ARI), D Keith Yandle (buyout), G Chris Driedger (expansion, SEA), G Devon Levi (traded to BUF)

    Still Unsigned: None

    Re-signed: F Sam Bennett, F Anthony Duclair, F Juho Lammikko, F Carter Verhaeghe, D Lucas Carlsson, D Kevin Connauton, D Gustav Forsling, D Noah Juulsen, D Brandon Montour, D Chase Priskie, G Sam Montembeault

    Offseason Analysis: The Panthers made the playoffs in 1996 and 1997, then spent quite a few years in-between without playing a postseason game in back-to-back years before making the 2020 Stanley Cup Qualifier (losing in four games in a best-of-five series to the New York Islanders) and taking on the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2021 First Round.

    Florida hasn’t won a playoff series since they eliminated the Pittsburgh Penguins in Game 7 of the 1996 Eastern Conference Final.

    Unlike the time between then and now, the Panthers are legitimately on the rise.

    Head coach, Joel Quenneville, has a tendency to keep a team’s composure together and make them competitive from year-to-year on the ice, but General Manager, Bill Zito, has the tough job of ensuring the chemistry works off the ice and under the salary cap too.

    Luckily for him, all he had to do this summer was stay the course.

    Though they lost in six games to the Lightning in the first ever “Battle of Florida”, the Panthers got a taste of what makes champions, champions, and gained valuable experience in the postseason department.

    Zito bought out Keith Yandle, brought in Joe Thornton for the bottom-six via free agency, acquired Sam Reinhart (and signed him to an extension) and traded Anton Strålman to the Arizona Coyotes in his biggest moves of the summer.

    The emergence of Mackenzie Weegar and the return of Aaron Ekblad pre-empted a spot in the top-six for Yandle with Brandon Montour, Markus Nutivaara and Radko Gudas garnering more time under Quenneville’s masterplan.

    Meanwhile, Strålman’s departure opened up $5.500 million in cap space for Zito to spend elsewhere– like on Reinhart’s three-year extension worth $6.500 million per season, for example.

    Reinhart was acquired from the Buffalo Sabres in exchange for a 2022 1st round pick and goalie, Devon Levi, on July 24th– two days before Zito flipped Strålman with Vladislav Kolyachonok to the Coyotes for a 2023 7th round pick.

    Despite a horrible 2020-21 season for the Sabres as a whole, Reinhart chipped in 40 points (25 goals, 15 assists) in 54 games as one of the bright spots in an otherwise dreary year.

    One season in Toronto was enough for Thornton as his Maple Leafs tenure produced 5-15–20 totals in 44 games. At least now that he’s in Florida it’ll be 1) warmer for surfing year-round and 2) better overall.

    With about $1.330 million in cap space, Zito has room to keep adding the missing link (if there even is one) by the time the trade deadline rolls around.

    Offseason Grade: A-

    Hockey is weird in that once a team starts showing signs of forward progress sometimes they go off the deep end and make tons of moves that make no sense from season-to-season.

    Zito is sharp enough to stay the course and add– bolstering his top-six forward group with Reinhart and providing Florida with the best chance to succeed for the first time this millennium.

    That said, there’s always the Sergei Bobrovsky factor, but Spencer Knight should help ease Bobrovsky’s workload if he isn’t already the starting goaltender to begin with for the Panthers in 2021-22.

    Chris Driedger leaving for the Seattle Kraken was inevitable, but Florida was wise enough to stockpile goaltending depth in Sam Montembeault and Knight over the last couple of seasons.

  • Point strikes twice as Lightning beat Panthers, 5-4, in Game 1

    Point strikes twice as Lightning beat Panthers, 5-4, in Game 1

    Brayden Point had a pair of goals to tie, then win the game for the Tampa Bay Lightning, 5-4, over the Florida Panthers at BB&T Center in Game 1 of their 2021 First Round matchup on Sunday.

    The Bolts stole a game on the road and took a 1-0 series lead as a result.

    Andrei Vasilevskiy (1-0, 4.07 goals-against average, .897 save percentage in one game played) made 35 saves on 39 shots against in Sunday night’s barnburner victory for Tampa.

    Meanwhile, Florida netminder, Sergei Bobrovsky (0-1, 5.08 goals-against average, .875 save percentage in one game played), stopped 35 out of 40 shots faced in the loss.

    The Panthers and Lightning are meeting for the first time in a postseason series as the two clubs had never met before in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, despite being located in the same state (let alone the same division).

    Florida enters the 2021 First Round having made their 7th postseason appearance in franchise history. The Panthers haven’t won a playoff series since 1996.

    Meanwhile, Tampa is making their 13th appearance in the playoffs having won their 2nd Stanley Cup title in 2020.

    Bolts captain, Steven Stamkos, and Lightning forward, Nikita Kucherov, were back from injury in time for Game 1 as Stamkos finished the regular season on injured reserve and Kucherov spent the entire 2020-21 season on long term injured reserve recovering from hip surgery.

    Or salary cap circumvention, if that’s your thing.

    Early in the action, Kucherov and MacKenzie Weegar tangled with one another, resulting in roughing minors for each player at 3:15 of the first period and a pair of minutes at 4-on-4.

    Almost midway into the opening frame, Alex Killorn caught Jonathan Huberdeau with a slash and presented the Panthers with the night’s first power play at 7:18.

    Florida thought they grabbed the game’s first lead when Sam Bennett poked the puck through Vasilevskiy from the doorstep, but the on ice officials immediately ruled Bennett’s actions as incidental goaltender interference– therefore negating the goal that the Panthers thought they had scored.

    Less than a minute later, Blake Coleman (1) went on a shorthanded breakaway and slipped a backhand shot past Bobrovsky to give the Lightning a, 1-0, lead at 7:42 of the first period.

    Yanni Gourde (1) and Ryan McDonagh (1) had the assists on Coleman’s shorthanded goal.

    Less than a couple of minutes later, McDonagh cut a rut to the penalty box for boarding after the Bolts defender hit Panthers forward, Anthony Duclair, from behind at 9:04.

    This time Florida made sure to capitalize on the ensuing skater advantage as Aleksander Barkov won a faceoff back to the point whereby Keith Yandle slid a pass to Huberdeau before Huberdeau then setup Barkov (1) with a pass through the slot for a one-timer goal.

    Huberdeau (1) and Yandle (1) had the assists on Barkov’s power-play goal and the Panthers tied things up, 1-1, at 9:41.

    Late in the period, Barkov and Jan Rutta got into a shoving match and received roughing minors at 14:09, yielding two minutes worth of 4-on-4 action.

    Shortly after both squads received their skater back and resumed 5-on-5 action, the Panthers pulled ahead, 2-1, thanks to a one-timer from the point by former Bolt turned current Florida forward, Carter Verhaeghe (1).

    Barkov (1) and Yandle (2) had the assists on Verhaeghe’s goal as the lead changed for the first time of the night at 16:31 of the first period.

    In the aftermath of the goal celebration, Coleman slashed Frank Vatrano– who received a minor penalty of his own for embellishment.

    There was more 4-on-4 action, as a result, to finish off the opening frame.

    Entering the first intermission, the Panthers led, 2-1, on the scoreboard and dominated in shots on goal, 18-10.

    Florida also held the advantage in blocked shots (7-4), giveaways (3-2) and hits (26-11), while both teams managed to have three takeaways each and were, 50-50, in faceoff win percentage after one period.

    The Panthers were 1/2 on the power play, while the Lightning had yet to see any action on the skater advantage heading into the middle frame.

    Bennett was penalized for holding at 4:27 of the second period, presenting Tampa with their first power play of the night in the process.

    It didn’t take the Bolts long to bring the thunder on the power play as Kucherov (1) rocketed a one-timer from inside the faceoff dot to the left of Bobrovsky over his glove.

    Victor Hedman (1) and Stamkos (1) had the assists on Kucherov’s 37th career Stanley Cup Playoff goal while the Lightning tied the game, 2-2 at 4:58 of the second period.

    Kucherov’s power-play goal would not be the last time that the Bolts struck on the skater advantage.

    About midway through the middle frame, Ondrej Palat caught Patric Hornqvist without the puck and was sent to the box for interference at 7:51.

    Florida’s resulting skater advantage was cut short when Brandon Montour slashed Killorn at 9:33.

    The Panthers managed to kill off Montour’s minor without incident, but found themselves shorthanded yet again when Markus Nutivaara tripped Anthony Cirelli at 12:56.

    This time, in the dying seconds of the ensuing power play, Kucherov (2) sent another one of his patented one-timers past Bobrovsky’s glove side to put the Lightning back on top, 3-2, with a power-play goal.

    Hedman (2) and Stamkos (2) once again had the assists on Kucherov’s goal at 14:51.

    Moments later, as the clock was winding down with about 90 seconds left in the period, Ryan Lomberg and Coleman started going at it after a stoppage in play, yielding roughing minors for each player at 18:30.

    Through 40 minutes of action at BB&T Center, the Lightning led the Panthers, 3-2, on the scoreboard, despite Florida outshooting Tampa, 29-26, in total shots on goal.

    The Bolts actually held the advantage in shots in the second period alone, however, as Tampa outshot Florida, 16-11, in the middle frame.

    Florida dominated in just about everything else, though, heading into the second intermission ahead of the Lightning in blocked shots (15-9), takeaways (5-4), giveaways (7-5), hits (41-23) and faceoff win% (54-46).

    The Panthers were 1/3 and the Lightning were 2/3 on the power play heading into the final frame.

    Huberdeau (1) tallied his first goal of the postseason off of a turnover– turned breakaway– before beating Vasilevskiy with a shot through the Lightning netminder’s five-hole.

    Bennett (1) and Owen Tippett (1) tallied the assists as the Panthers tied the game, 3-3, at 1:27 of the third period on Huberdeau’s goal.

    Florida capitalized on the surge in momentum less than a few minutes later as Tippett (1) one-timed a shot past the Tampa goaltender to give the Panthers a, 4-3, lead at 4:09.

    Huberdeau (2) and Bennett (2) had the assists on Tippett’s first career Stanley Cup Playoff goal.

    About a minute later, Cirelli and Mason Marchment got in a scrum and yielded roughing infractions leading to more 4-on-4 action at 5:39.

    Midway through the third, Bennett was penalized for charging and presented Tampa with a power play at 12:19.

    The Bolts capitalized on the ensuing advantage as Point (1) chipped a slap pass on the far side of the mostly vacant net as Bobrovsky was out of position– tying the game, 4-4, in the process.

    Kucherov (1) and Hedman (3) had the assists on Point’s power-play goal at 13:00 of the third period.

    Almost six minutes later, McDonagh fed Point a lead pass– sending Point into the attacking zone on a breakaway whereby Point (2) slipped the rubber biscuit through Bobrovsky’s five-hole to give the Lightning a, 5-4, lead at 18:46.

    McDonagh (2) had the only assist on what became the game-winning goal as the Panthers had no answer for Tampa, despite pulling Bobrovsky for an extra attacker with about 33.5 seconds left in the action.

    At the final horn, the Lightning had won, 5-4, and stolen Game 1 on the road.

    The Bolts finished the night ahead in shots on goal, 40-39, including a, 14-10, advantage in the third period alone.

    Meanwhile, Florida wrapped up Sunday night’s game leading in blocked shots (17-16) and hits (54-36). Tampa led Game 1 in giveaways (12-9) and faceoff win% (52-48).

    The Panthers finished 1/3 and the Lightning went an impressive 3/4 on the power play in Game 1.

    Tampa takes a 1-0 series lead heading into Game 2 on Tuesday night at BB&T Center.

    Puck drop is scheduled for a little after 8 p.m. ET and fans in the United States can catch national coverage on CNBC, while those in Canada can watch the next part of the Battle of Florida on SNE or TVAS.

  • DTFR Podcast #209- Mic Check/Always Improving

    DTFR Podcast #209- Mic Check/Always Improving

    Nick and Colby review some of the biggest signings in free agency, as well as other happenings this offseason in the National Hockey League, including teams that have improved, a 2020-21 season outlook and more in the season seven debut of the podcast.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple PodcastsStitcher and/or on Spotify.

  • Report: Gudas on his way to Florida Panthers via free agency

    Known for his on-the-edge play, Radko Gudas is taking his talents to the Florida Panthers defense on a three-year contract worth a reported $2.500 million per season.

    The 30-year-old native of Prague, Czech Republic was originally drafted by the Tampa Bay Lightning in the third round (66th overall) of the 2010 NHL Draft and spent last season with the Washington Capitals after he was traded by the Philadelphia Flyers for Matt Niskanen on June 14, 2019.

    Gudas had 2-13–15 totals in 63 games with the Capitals before the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic shortened the regular season and only had 40 penalty minutes without recording a single suspension last season.

    A right-shot defender, he made his NHL debut with the Lightning in the 2012-13 season and spent parts of three seasons with Tampa before being traded to the Flyers on March 2, 2015, where he spent the next four years before being dealt to Washington prior to the 2019-20 season.

    In eight NHL seasons, Gudas has 120 points (26 goals, 94 assists) in 479 career games for the Capitals, Lightning and Flyers.

    He’ll bring some necessary upgrades in toughness and versatility to Florida’s changing landscape on defense in the wake of new General Manager, Bill Zito’s hiring and acquisition of Markus Nutivaara from the Columbus Blue Jackets on Thursday.

  • Bruins at Islanders Preview: 3/19/2019

    Coming off a, 2-1, overtime victory over the Columbus Blue Jackets on Saturday, the Boston Bruins (43-20-9, 95 points, 2nd in the Atlantic Division) pay a visit to NYCB Live to take on the New York Islanders (42-23-7, 91 points, 1st in the Metropolitan Division).

    The Bruins lead the season series against the Islanders, 2-0-0, this season as the two clubs are set to meet for the final time in the regular season Tuesday night.

    Boston beat New York, 2-1, in a shootout on Nov. 29th and, 3-1, on Feb. 5th.

    Bruce Cassidy provided some updates on Monday after practice in regards to the long list of injuries the Bruins have had. The B’s head coach indicated while David Pastrnak was back at full practice on Monday, he could be ready to play on Tuesday or on Thursday if he is not ready to go after Tuesday’s morning skate.

    Cassidy also gave updates on Matt Grzelcyk (upper body) and Marcus Johansson (lung contusion), indicating the two players could play at some point on the latest road trip for Boston, but not likely on Tuesday.

    Meanwhile, Torey Krug (concussion) was feeling better and will travel with the club on the trip, but is not set to return to the lineup yet.

    Finally, Kevan Miller (upper body) will not travel with the team on their four-game road trip.

    If Pastrnak is indeed back in the lineup for the Bruins on Tuesday, Cassidy plans on reinserting him on the first line with Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron.

    Jake DeBrusk, David Krejci and Charlie Coyle would likely remain together as a unit on the second line, while Danton Heinen would slide down to the third line left wing alongside Sean Kuraly and David Backes.

    Joakim Nordstrom, Noel Acciari and Chris Wagner would fill out the fourth line as they have done so for the last couple of games.

    Cassidy will start goaltender, Tuukka Rask (24-10-5 record, 2.45 goals against average, .916 save percentage in 40 games played), in the crease for Boston against the Islanders.

    New York is 0-5-1 in their last six games and has not beaten the Bruins on home ice in seven games dating back to 2013 (0-7-0). The Isles are 1-10-0 in their last 11 home games, while the Bruins are 15-13-6 on the road this season.

    Not only would a win for New York mark an impressive feat, but it could give them a two-point lead over the Washington Capitals (42-23-7, 91 points) who sit 2nd in the Metropolitan Division– tied in points with the Islanders, but trailing by virtue of having a worse record against New York this season as both teams are tied in points, games played and regulation-plus-overtime wins.

    A win for Boston could help spur a large cushion over the 3rd place in the Atlantic Division, Toronto Maple Leafs (43-24-5, 91 points). The Bruins cannot surpass the Tampa Bay Lightning in the standings as the Bolts have a 21-point lead over the B’s with 10 games remaining in the regular season for Boston.

    As a result, Tampa (56-13-4, 116 points) has clinched the President’s Trophy and Atlantic Division regular season title.

    Islanders head coach, Barry Trotz, has not indicated which of his goaltenders will get the start on Tuesday, but Robin Lehner (20-11-5, 2.19 GAA, .927 SV% in 38 GP) has been the backup to Thomas Greiss (22-12-2, 2.21 GAA, .928 SV% in 40 GP) in the last three games since returning from an upper body injury.

    Lehner could likely get the start if Trotz is looking to balance this week’s workload with Greiss against much hungrier playoff bubble teams, such as the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday or Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday as the Islanders head out on a two-game road trip following the game against Boston on Tuesday.

    Adam Pelech and Tom Kuhnhackl are set to appear in their 200th career NHL games, while Casey Cizikas is a game-time decision according to Trotz.

    Former Bruin, Johnny Boychuk, missed Sunday’s game– his fourth straight– for the Islanders with an upper body injury.


    Boston took home the, 2-1, overtime win on Saturday night at TD Garden against the Blue Jackets thanks to Brad Marchand’s 31st goal (assisted by Patrice Bergeron, 40) of the season at 3:30 of the overtime period.

    Bergeron (27, assisted by Marchand, 56, and David Krejci, 44) also had a goal for the Bruins and reached 800 points in his NHL career, while Matt Duchene (30, assisted by Markus Nutivaara, 13, and David Savard, 12) had the lone goal for Columbus.

    Jaroslav Halak (19-10-4, 2.29 GAA, .925 SV% in 36 GP) made 24 saves on 25 shots against for a .960 SV% in the overtime win for Boston, while Joonas Korpisalo (9-6-3, 2.91 GAA, .901 SV% in 24 GP) stopped 31 out of 33 shots faced for a .939 SV% in the overtime loss for the Blue Jackets.

  • Columbus Blue Jackets Forecast Through 24 Games

    It’s past the quarter mark of the 2018-19 regular season for the Columbus Blue Jackets, but thanks to the way the calendar (and life) works out, I’m a few games behind on presenting my latest forecast for Columbus.

    Thankfully, the Blue Jackets have a couple of days between their game on Monday (a 7-5 victory against Detroit) and their next matchup against Minnesota on Thursday.

    As such, here’s a quick look at what to expect through the remaining 58 games this season.

    Keep in mind, there’s many unknown variables that will change what’s to come due to injury, lineup changes, roster moves and whatever else Microsoft Excel doesn’t already know. My degree is in communication– not math– and I’d like to keep things as brief as I can in John Tortorella fashion so you can look things over, get a gist of it and go back to watching the game.

    If a player meets the forecasted stats I’ve updated, they’ve met the latest expectations. If they do better, they’ve exceeded expectations. Of course, if they do worse– they just didn’t live up to expectations– it’s that simple. Well, either that or they missed a lot of action due to injury or something.

    Anyway, you can’t forecast puck luck, but you can indicate general trends and estimated hunches based on what the scoresheet indicates each night.

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    Columbus Blue Jackets Forecast Through 24 Games (58 Games Remaining)

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    Good news, Blue Jackets fans, Artemi Panarin should reach the 80-point plateau this season. Bad news, Blue Jackets fans, Panarin’s still a pending-unrestricted free agent at season’s end and still doesn’t seem intent on sticking around in Columbus.

    Other than that, Cam Atkinson is expected to amass 62 points this season (35 expected goals, 27 expected assists) and lead the team in goals, while Pierre-Luc Dubois sits one goal shy of reaching 30 this season.

    Josh Anderson should tie Panarin for third place on the roster in goals scored this season with 26 expected goals, while Nick Foligno and Boone Jenner contribute close to 20 goals each.

    Newcomer Anthony Ducliar continues his career revival with respectable 19-18–37 expected totals and Zach Werenski should lead all defenders in expected goals (14), assists (32) and points (46).

    Meanwhile, noted top-pairing blue liner Seth Jones, should amass 10-28–38 totals from the point with Werenski beating out Jones in goals from the blue line by four.

    Scott Harrinton’s expected 18 points fit perfectly behind Ryan Murray (30),  Markus Nutivaara (25) and David Savard (24) as the Blue Jackets defensive corps continues to improve at moving the puck out of their own zone and into quality scoring opportunities.

    Other than Panarin’s uncertain future, the only other concern for Columbus revolves around the franchise’s stability in net.

    Sergei Bobrovsky‘s expected goals against average has worsened after the first quarter of the season. It’s now set to be a 2.46 GAA by season’s end. Yeah, that’s not great.

    In fact, it would be Bobrovsky’s worst GAA since he posted a 2.75 in 37 games played in 2015-16. To begin with, he’s at a 2.74 currently with a .912 save percentage in 16 games this season.

    At least Bobrovsky’s save percentage is expected to improve to a .920 SV% by the time 2018-19 wraps up.

    Backup netminder, Joonas Korpisalo should end up with a 2.61 GAA and .919 SV% by season’s end, which would be significant improvements from last season’s 3.32 GAA and .897 SV% in 18 games.

    As is it, Korpisalo has a 3.73 GAA and .886 SV% through nine games played this season, so things can only get… better? That’s the hope anyway.

    Columbus has to work on suppressing shot attempts against, let alone shots on goal, since they’re evidently overworking their goaltenders and it’s showing (remember, a goalie has to move around and “make the save” regardless of whether or not the puck actually hits the net as an official shot on goal).

    It’s either that or maybe Bobrovsky isn’t worth as much as some might think he is (because he’s also a pending-UFA in July)– especially in a contract year.

    Somehow the Blue Jackets find themselves 2nd in the Metropolitan Division with 30 points on the season and a 14-8-2 record on the season and a plus-six goal differential.

    So has Columbus been under the radar and quietly good? Or are they just quietly lucky and surviving in a volatile division (whereby the Pittsburgh Penguins– remember them? they won back-to-back Cups in 2016 and 2017– are currently 6th in the division outside the playoff picture)?

    Time will tell or @capncornelius and/or @vanekatthedisco might fill you in on their outlook sometime.

  • Columbus Blue Jackets 2018-19 Season Projections

    Hello Columbus Blue Jackets fans, I’m not Cap’n Cornelius, but since we know each other and I visited your wonderful city in August, I was determined to deliver some Blue Jackets forecasted stats throughout the season.

    Alas, the regular season started almost a month ago, but I promised I’d have some forecasted stats for Columbus’ entire roster for the entire season by the end of the month and I have finally gotten around to it.

    These things take time when you’re transferring data into a new system and trying to watch every game on TV, as well as exist on Earth among its people.

    For now, let’s pretend the season hasn’t started or that we’ve all jumped into a time machine and gone back to October 1st. How would things play out for the Blue Jackets this season?

    Based on last season’s results– a 45-30-7 record, good enough for 97 points on the season and 4th place in the Metropolitan Division as the first wild card team in the Eastern Conference– Columbus is poised for a bit of a bounce-back in the division standings.

    Why? Because the other teams ahead of them got worse– namely the Philadelphia Flyers and Washington Capitals.

    The Flyers are off to their usual slow start (wait, I forgot, we’ve time travelled back to the beginning of October) just overall worse and the Capitals look to be dethroned by the Pittsburgh Penguins for the Metropolitan crown at the end of the regular season.

    Last season’s Blue Jackets won two playoff games on the road against the eventual Stanley Cup champions, then lost the next four games to extend Columbus’ misery as the only NHL franchise without a playoff series win.

    Ian Cole and Matt Calvert left for the Colorado Avalanche in the offseason and defender, Jack Johnson, signed a long-term five-year contract with the Penguins.

    Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky survived an offseason of trade speculation, but they’ve both still pending-unrestricted free agents at the end of the 2018-19 season.

    That’s the major storyline to the Blue Jackets this year– will it be one last hurrah or will Panarin and/or Bobrovsky leave the city in the dust among the cornfields on its outskirts in what might become the franchise’s greatest departure(s) since trading Rick Nash to the New York Rangers in 2012?

    If this season is a failure, is it head coach, John Tortorella’s fault, a roster problem or General Manager Jarmo Kekalainen‘s inability to construct the necessary components of a successful organization?

    Critics will be sure to point out all the flaws that mar the franchise, but one thing’s for certain– there’s a lot of expectations.

    One way to generate an unnecessary buzz about expectations is to believe your educated guesses about how players should perform this season makes any difference to what actually goes on the ice.

    Fear not, for I am about to do just that.

    Before I do, however, I’d like to remind those of you in the audience that are familiar with my roster forecasts before and inform those of you that are new here for the first time of my actual area of expertise.

    It’s words. My degree is in communication.

    There’s nothing that I will present here that you cannot do yourself, better and/or read anywhere else. All of this is an educated guess– an educated expectation– thanks to one of my sport management classes from college.

    A player who performs better than their expected outcomes here is merely exceeding these presented expectations. A player who doesn’t meet the expectations could’ve been injured, a healthy scratch or on a chronic cold streak that’s technically unpredictable.

    Anything else is just an error outside my expertise and/or Microsoft Excel’s fault.

    That, or there’s a little gut-feeling added for players with substantially fewer career NHL games played than the rest of the data shows (basically, if someone’s projected to score 100 goals and has only played in nine games, I might tweak the result until they’ve played a quarter of the season and have either proven themselves as Wayne Gretzky 2.0 or nothing like “the Great One”).

    Take a look at the charts below as though everything were to fall in line and nothing bad could ever happen– an utopian view, if you will. Some things may pan out, some things may not– it’s just a suggested (expected) outcome in a sport that’s highly unpredictable thanks to its collective nature and sheer puck luck.

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    Columbus Blue Jackets Forecast Through 0 Games (82 Games Remaining)

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    As has been the custom since his arrival via trade with the Chicago Blackhawks, Artemi Panarin is expected to lead the Blue Jackets in points with 30-49–79 expected totals. The next best player on the team? Cam Atkinson.

    Atkinson’s bound for 27 goals and 24 assists (51 points) this season, while the third best forward on the team, Pierre-Luc Dubois, is expected to match his rookie season totals with another 48-point season, at least.

    Alexander Wennberg and Oliver Bjorkstrand are both landing somewhere in the mid-40s in total points as complementary complete players for the Blue Jackets this season.

    In the meantime several other forwards fall within the 40-point range, while free agent signing, Riley Nash isn’t expected to break into the 30-point plateau after amassing a career-high 41-point season with the Boston Bruins in 2017-18.

    On defense, by default (thanks to Seth Jones‘ delayed start due to injury) or by talent, Zach Werenski emerges as the best two-way defender in Columbus with 14 goals and 30 assists (44 points).

    Werenski’s expected totals tops Jones (9-28–37 expected totals) by seven points and is in a league of his own compared to his teammates on the blue line.

    Ryan Murray (4-19–23 expected totals) and David Savard (7-19–26 expected totals) land in a respectable range for top-4/top-6 defensemen.

    In goal, Sergei Bobrovsky is looking for redemption with an expected goals against average of 2.37 and an expected save percentage of .923 over the course of 2018-19. Backup netminder, Joonas Korpisalo seeks to provide healthy competition with an expected 2.68 GAA and .917 SV% prior to puck drop on the season.

    Of course, now that we’re a month into the regular season, it’ll be time to update this entire forecast once Columbus is about a quarter of the way through their 82-game schedule.


    Feel free to check out this season’s forecasts for Boston, Carolina or Vegas.

  • Columbus Blue Jackets 2018-19 Season Preview

    Columbus Blue Jackets

    45-30-7, 97 points, fourth in the Metropolitan Division

    First Wild Card in the East, lost in First Round to Washington (4-2)

    Additions: G Jean-Francois Berube, D Adam Clendening, D Tommy Cross, LW Anthony Duclair, C Liam Foudy (’18 1st round pick, signed ELC), C Ryan MacInnis, C Riley Nash, D Dillon Simpson

    Subtractions: LW Matt Calvert (signed with COL), D Taylor Chorney (signed with HC Lugano), D Ian Cole (signed with COL), D Cameron Gaunce (signed with TB), D Jack Johnson (signed with PIT), C Mark Letestu (unsigned UFA), RW Thomas Vanek (signed with DET)

    Re-signed: RW Oliver Bjorkstrand (3-year, $2.5M), LW Boone Jenner (4-year, $3.75M), D Ryan Murray (1 year, $2.825M)

    Offseason Analysis: The Jackets enjoyed a successful, if not slightly underwhelming ’17-’18 campaign, where all-time high hopes were somewhat cooled by some notable underachieving seasons from players like Boone Jenner, Brandon Dubinsky and even captain Nick Foligno. Fortunately these were offset somewhat by terrific years from players like rookie standout Pierre-Luc Dubois, emerging Norris Trophy candidate Seth Jones, and superstar Artemi Panarin. They’d close out the regular season on a 15-4-2 run over their final 21 games to lose out to Philadelphia for the final Metropolitan Division spot by a single point, instead drawing the first Wild Card spot and a date with the Washington Capitals.

    The Jackets shocked everyone by taking Games 1 and 2 of the series in Washington, both in thrilling overtime fashion, to head back home with a 2-0 hold on the series. Then came “The Promise”. Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin told the media they’d be back in Washington for Game 5 with the series tied. They did just that, and rode the momentum on through the Blue Jackets, and everyone else in their way as they went on to grab the first Stanley Cup in franchise history. This was no consolation prize in the minds of Jackets fans, though, as losing to the eventual Stanley Cup champions is sort of a calling card in Columbus’ recent history. *throws another dart at a poster of Sidney Crosby*

    Now, with another disappointing playoff performance on their record, a list of notable pending free agents on their plate, and the ever-looming Sergei Bobrovsky and Artemi Panarin contract situations on their hands, the Columbus brass faced a rather trying offseason. But, as has been his MO over the years, GM Jarmo Kekalainen wasn’t about to panic. Or really show any sort of human emotion of any kind. I think that’s just a Finnish thing.

    First came the NHL draft, where once again ‘J.K.’ and his staff went a bit off the board for their first round pick, drafting speedster Liam Foudy 18th overall. Generally projected as a very-late first or early second round pick, Foudy caught the eye of the CBJ scouting staff for his ability to inject speed into their lineup, something it could definitely use. While likely to spend at least another year in Juniors, Foudy did ink his entry level contract over the summer.

    When free agency opened, the Jackets very quickly lost longtime roster stalwarts Jack Johnson (fans weren’t that upset) and Matt Calvert (fans held memorial services), along with rentals Thomas Vanek, Ian Cole, and Mark Letestu. Kekalainen quickly nabbed penalty-killing specialist Riley Nash to replace Letestu’s bottom-six depth. Initially his $2.75 million cap hit over the next three years seemed slightly steep for a guy who projects as a third-line center at best, but with the raised cap and resulting numbers we saw on some other signings/re-signings over the summer, the deal has aged fairly well. A few days later the Jackets would pick up troubled youngster Anthony Duclair on a league-minimum $650 thousand, one-year deal. Likened to the ‘show me’ contract given to Sam Gagner by the Jackets a few years ago that paid dividends, Columbus is hedging bets on Duclair’s willingness to shed some of the baggage he’s accumulated over the past few seasons and work hard to get back to being the player that scored 20 goals and 44 points as a 20-year-old. If he can, he’s an absolute steal. If he can’t, he’s barely even a blip on the salary cap radar, and could be placed on waivers without much concern.

    Kekalainen decided to let his organizational depth fill the rest of the vacancies in the roster (which has definitely created one of the more intriguing training camps to watch). Instead, he invested a good portion of his time and effort over the summer into attempting to secure the future services of Artemi Panarin and, to a lesser extent, Sergei Bobrovsky. Bobrovsky only recently broke his silence about his situation, revealing that management knows his plans after his contract expires next summer, but declined to make public that information.

    Cryptic.

    The Panarin situation was much more public, and highlighted by Kekalainen flying to France to visit with Panarin and his agent while the dynamic winger was on vacation. No real progress was made on a contract extension, as Panarin seems likely to either test the waters of free agency or possibly even return to Russia after this season. Some reports indicated he’d prefer to play in a larger market than Columbus, or perhaps at least a market with a beach (he did spend the last month or so of the offseason training with friends Nikita Kucherov and Andrei Vasilevskiy in Tampa), but no solid proof of any of this ever emerged.

    The prospects of a future in Columbus that include neither their most potent offensive weapon nor their multi-time Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender are not fun to consider for the fanbase, but they do appear to be looming. In net, the Jackets do at least boast one of the strongest goaltending prospect pools in the league, but that’s far from a sure thing. Apart from possibly young Vitaly Abramov, they certainly don’t have anyone currently in the pipeline that could replace Panarin’s offensive production.

    Getting away from the doom and gloom, let’s circle back to the earlier claim of a very interesting training camp.

    The Jackets’ camp roster includes over 60 players, and there are some very tight battles for more than a few roster spots. The race for bottom-six wing minutes is hotly contested. Players with Blue Jackets tenure like Sonny Milano, Markus Hannikainen, and Lukas Sedlak now find themselves being challenged by newcomer Duclair, along with a serious pool of prospects like Sam Vigneault, Kevin Stenlund, Eric Robinson, Jonathan Davidsson, Paul Bittner and even 2018 draft picks Foudy and Traverse City tournament standout Trey Fix-Wolansky.

    While I don’t see the 2018 picks making the roster (more time in Juniors would serve their development better than limited fourth-line NHL minutes), the rest are interesting. Duclair obviously adds an element of offense and speed, but has also shown he’s not afraid to play with an edge as well. Vigneault and Stenlund are both every bit of 6-foot-5 and well over 200 pounds, but lack some speed and are both natural centers, a position that should be filled on the roster. Bittner is a superior skater to either of the ‘Twin Towers’, still comes in at 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, and is a natural wing, but has struggled to adapt his offensive game to the pro level to this point. Robinson played one game with the Jackets last year coming in as a free agent after captaining the Princeton Tigers in his senior year where he put up 31 points in 36 games. His pro game has yet to really be seen, so training camp and preseason will be important for him. To me, the most interesting name at forward is the Swedish RW Davidsson. An effortless skater, he brings plenty of speed and agility to the lineup, and has shown to be an extremely intelligent playmaker, but he’s definitely not a physical presence nor a defensive stalwart, so not who you’d normally have in a bottom-six role. He could probably use another year in either the SHL or AHL to continue his physical and defensive development, but if he impresses in camp he could at least get a look.

    My projected forward lines are:
    Panarin – Dubois – Atkinson
    Jenner – Wennberg – Bjorkstrand
    Milano – Dubinsky – Foligno
    Sedlak – Nash – Anderson
    Extra forwards Hannikainen and Duclair

    On defense, Columbus has the luxury of one of the best top pairs in the league, with Seth Jones alongside blueline sniper Zach Werenski. Werenski set the franchise record for goals as a defenseman last year while playing basically the entire year with a destroyed shoulder. Offseason surgery will keep him slightly limited in camp and likely out of all preseason games, but he’s projected to be 100 percent ready to go for the beginning of the season. After the top pair, though, things are pretty fluid, with approximately seven players vying for the four remaining spots. Three of the four (David Savard, Ryan Murray and Markus Nutivaara) are pretty well locked into the lineup, just more a question of where exactly they’ll sit on the depth chart. But the competition for the No. 6 spot and final roster spot as the seventh man is tight. Dean Kukan and Scott Harrington both saw limited NHL action with the Jackets last year, with Kukan putting up a respectable 4 points in 11 games and Harrington proving to be a reliable No. 6 down the stretch run. Adam Clendening only saw five games with Arizona last year, and has bounced between the leagues a lot in the past few seasons, but his last full season in the AHL saw him put up 59 points in 74 games. He’s not always the most defensively reliable guy, but he’s the best puck mover of the contenders. My personal pick for not only the Jackets roster but also for the No. 6 slot is 6-foot-5 Gabriel Carlsson. While still working to put some bulk on his lanky frame, Carlsson has already adapted well to the North American game, being a steady presence on the Cleveland blueline last year in the AHL. While certainly not an offensive producer, he’s very poised with the puck and is a confident passer. He skates well and uses his lengthy reach to make sure he’s always in good position. He’s also capable of playing either side of the ice.

    I have the defense shaping up like this:
    Werenski – Jones
    Murray – Savard
    Carlsson – Nuutivaara
    Extra defenseman Harrington

    In net, things are unlikely to look any different than last year. While J.F. Berube was brought in to challenge for the backup position after Joonas Korpisalo had a bit of regression last year, he’ll likely head to Cleveland as Korpi’s deal is one-way. Elvis Merzilikins and Daniil Tarasov are both top goaltending prospects, but they’ll continue their development overseas for the time being.

    Offseason Grade: C+

    Though there seems to be a general sense that more should have been done to improve the team over the summer, the handful of moves made were smart. The big thing here is that there is a lot of potential turmoil brewing heading towards next year. Kekalainen was likely smart not to hedge any knee-jerk bets on this season and instead rely upon his strong organizational depth to improve the team.

    If the youngsters make an impact, and you get a rebound season from a vet or two, suddenly even the prospect of losing your two Russian dynamos seems less daunting. Panarin is definitely trade bait for a big return before the deadline if you need to go that route, and if the team gets better from within, that leaves big chunks of cap space to bring in other pieces if necessary.

    While they’ll obviously look to improve their fortunes (particularly in the playoffs) this year, it will really be next offseason where the brass will have to earn those shiny new contracts they received this month.

  • 2018 Offseason Preview: Columbus Blue Jackets

    Our offseason previews for all 31 National Hockey League teams continues with the Columbus Blue Jackets and their outlook for the summer.

    The Jackets finished the 2017-18 season with a record of 45-30-7, capping a strong (albeit inconsistent) campaign with 97 points, earning them fourth place in the Metropolitan Division and a playoff birth as the first wild card in the East.

    After taking two dramatic overtime victories in Washington to start the playoffs, the soldiers in Union Blue fell on their bayonets by dropping four-straight games (including three within the friendly confines of Nationwide Arena) to the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Washington Capitals and were once again eliminated from contention in the opening round of the playoffs.

    I mean, would they really be the Blue Jackets if they didn’t get your hopes up before firing them out of that cannon?

    Though the core of a solid-if-not-spectacular team is likely to remain through the summer, the front office is now feeling the pressure of raising a team that they drug out of the trenches by the bootstraps to the next level. The fanbase will no longer accept ‘just making the playoffs’, and though there’s still plenty of promising youth onboard, some key players like captain Nick Foligno are sliding into the back half of their careers. This is a team that needs to win, and needs to do it soon.

    How can they do that? I’m glad you asked. (If you didn’t actually ask, I’m still going to tell you.)

    2018 NHL Entry Draft

    The Jackets are decently well-stocked to try and score some talent in this year’s draft, with a pick in each of the first three rounds, along with another in both the sixth and seventh. It will be those early-round picks that are likely to mean the most to GM Jarmo Kekalainen and his staff, as this year’s extremely deep draft class means that you’re likely to nab some serious quality (or perhaps have a bigger bargaining chip should you decide to trade picks for another asset) deeper in than usual.

    It’s not overly likely that the CBJ will look to acquire further picks, though they could perhaps look to trade up from their 18th spot in line. With Jack Johnson a pending UFA who looks very likely to be on the move (his recent time in Columbus has been tumultuous, and a change of scenery could be the spark he needs to reignite his career) come July 1, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that we could see a deal made to send his negotiating rights and that 18th pick to a team further up the draft order.

    As for likely selections with whatever first round pick they happen to have (we’ll pretend that if they trade up, it will be a small swing, maybe in the 12-15 position at most), a few names stand out to me as filling potential needs.

    Serron Noel, a 6-foot-5, 205-pound right winger out of the OHL (Oshawa Generals) could be a fit on a team with few natural right wingers. A solid, if not outstanding scorer in juniors, Noel is still filling out his large frame and is likely to continue improving his burgeoning offensive game, drawing comparisons to power forwards like Wayne Simmonds. An eventual perhaps third-and-fourth line RW tandem of Noel and Josh Anderson would be a lot of meat to throw at opposing defenses.

    Bode Wilde, a 6-foot-2, 196-pound right shooting defenseman from the United States National Team Development Program, is a very good possibility. Regarded as one of the better all-round defenders in a draft that is not lacking them, Wilde could eventually complete a defense corps that boasts himself along with David Savard and Seth Jones down the right side. Not a bad lineup there. In particular, his booming slap shot would be a welcome addition on a power play unit that hasn’t had a true cannon since James Wisniewski‘s departure. Also, he has a sick hockey name.

    My personal pick for the most likely selection comes in the form of Swedish Elite League center Isac Lundestrom. At 6-feet and 185 pounds, he’s not far off from good NHL size, and with the additional polish his defensive game could use, he’d likely have plenty of time to hit the weight room before reaching the Jackets lineup. But his elite offensive capabilities and, in particular, blinding speed address two of the club’s biggest shortcomings. He also provides versatility, having proven himself capable of playing the left wing well. Regarded by some scouts as having potentially the highest ceiling of any center in the draft, he could be a mid-round steal for Columbus.

    Pending Free Agents

    The UFA list for Columbus isn’t huge, but it does contain a few potentially interesting names. NHL regulars Johnson (who’s possible fate has already been discussed, so we’ll skip over him in this section), Thomas Vanek, Matt Calvert, Ian Cole, and Mark Letestu are the most notable names (no offense to Jeff Zatkoff, Taylor Chorney, Andre Benoit, Cameron Gaunce, and Alex Broadhurst).

    Vanek’s stint in Columbus started off very well, gelling quickly with linemates Alexander Wennberg and Boone Jenner to put up great numbers in early games following his acquisition at the deadline. But the magic wore off and he was all-but-invisible during the playoffs, often looking far too slow to keep up with the game. Acquired for an absolute steal (Jussi Jokinen, a waiver wire pickup, and Tyler Motte, a throw-in on the Artemi Panarin trade that had bounced around between the AHL and the Jackets’ fourth line all year), it doesn’t hurt the organization at all to simply let him walk.

    Calvert was protected from the expansion draft in place of 2017-18 40-goal scorer William Karlsson. That isn’t necessarily relevant information, but I enjoy pain. Anyway, Calvert enjoyed a so-so year, producing nine goals and a career-high (tied) 24 points in 69 (nice) games played. A solid contributor on the penalty kill, and a constant spark plug on the fourth line, his never-quit playing style has endeared him to Columbus fans, but he may have to take a hometown discount if he wants to stay.

    Cole played extremely well down the stretch for Columbus after his acquisition from Pitt…Otta…it was weird, but you get the point. He basically made Jack Johnson expendable, and he has said many times that he absolutely loves the city and his new teammates. It’s of course always a matter of numbers, but don’t be surprised to see Cole back in Union Blue next year.

    Letestu loves Columbus, lives in Columbus (his family never left when he went to Edmonton), and has said he would like to finish his career there. Still a more-than-serviceable fourth line center that can help your special teams units, it’s likely he’ll take a hometown discount and remain with the organization.

    The RFA list is smaller, but contains three major names in Jenner, Oliver Bjorkstrand, and Ryan Murray.

    Jenner is a fan favorite, and one of the hardest-working 30-goal scorers you’ll ever find. But after a breakout 30-goal, 49-point 2015-16 campaign, he’s tallied just 31 goals and 65 points in 157 games since. If not for a late-season hot streak when paired with Wennberg and Vanek this season, his numbers would have been significantly lower. At times the game just seems too fast for his skating abilities, and even at just 24 years of age you wonder if he can improve it enough to stay useful. I’d expect him to get a bridge extension on a pay level similar to his current $2.9M, but Boone has a lot to prove going forward.

    Bjorkstrand is coming off of his entry level contract, and I’d expect a bridge-style deal similar to what I listed for Jenner. Posting 11 goals and 29 assists for 40 points this season, ‘Olli’ showed flashes of his potential, but still needs to get a little more confident in himself, and particularly in his laser beam wrist shot.

    Murray is a very intriguing topic. Though ever-dependable, the former WHL standout and second-overall pick has never really hit the stride he was projected to, particularly in the offensive department. Derailed time and time again by injuries (often to his legs, which are probably the silky-smooth skating defender’s greatest weapons), Murray has played all 82 games just once in 5 NHL seasons, and has missed no less than 19 games in any other campaign.

    At 24-years-old, he’s definitely still young enough to sell as ‘Still coming into his own’ and his potential ceiling should be alluring to many teams. With other good young left handed defenders waiting in the wings (Markus Nutivaara, Gabriel Carlsson, Dean Kukan, Vladislav Gavrikov), the time could be right to try and swing a sign-and-trade type of deal to send Murray out in exchange for some offensive power. The Senators come to mind as a potential trade partner, as a spoil of offensive firepower up front is countered by a defense corps that is suspect at best, especially with the likely departure of Erik Karlsson. Mike Hoffman‘s name was already tied to Columbus around the trade deadline last year, but former Ohio State standout Ryan Dzingel could be a potential fit, as well.

    I don’t expect a particularly busy or flashy offseason in Columbus, but Kekalainen and company can’t just rest on their laurels, either. They have a very good group that really needs just a few things to get them over the hump. Add another solid offensive threat or two to compliment the dynamic Panarin/Pierre-Luc Dubois line, sprinkle in a reliable veteran depth blueliner, and hinge your bets on a new goaltending coach for Sergei Bobrovsky (longtime man Ian Clark is departing the team this summer) helping him get past his playoff struggles, and you might be on to something.

    Oh, and you may want to figure out what to do with that abysmal Brandon Dubinsky contract…

  • Down the Frozen River Podcast #103- Good Two See You

    Down the Frozen River Podcast #103- Good Two See You

    Second Round predictions, Minnesota needs a new GM, Calgary’s got a new coach, award finalist reactions, a Game 7 breakdown between Boston and Toronto, and where do the Leafs go from here? All that and more as Nick and Connor discuss on the latest DTFR Podcast.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.