Tag Archives: Malcolm Subban

Vegas Golden Knights 2018-19 Season Projections

It’s forecasting season, well, actually it’s the regular season and I’m just a little behind, but until I pointed that out, you didn’t know I was behind on my little passion project here, did you?

I know I wrote “[i]n the coming days I’ll reveal what teams I’ll be forecasting/tracking all season long, so stay tuned because it’s about to get messier than ever before and I’m up for the challenge,” in my Boston Bruins 2018-19 forecast, but life and the fact that I’m moving all my data into a new format has slowed my turnaround for the time being.

Nevertheless, my Vegas Golden Knights forecast for 2018-19 is here and let’s pretend the first week of the regular season hasn’t already happened or something.

Additionally, if you’re wondering what other teams I’m preparing to post (before we get too far into the first quarter of the season) they are the Carolina Hurricanes and Columbus Blue Jackets.

I always keep tabs on the Bruins every year because I grew up a Boston fan and I decided to track Vegas last season because there hadn’t been nearly as much hype surrounding an expansion team since Columbus and the Minnesota Wild in 2000. Additionally, I’ve previously tracked the Arizona Coyotes simply because they follow us on Twitter (and I’ll get back around to them hopefully before season’s end, if you’re interested).

But I’m adding Carolina and Columbus to my forecast portfolio this season because 1) the Hurricanes are supposed to be better than last season, plus they have some exciting youth in the lineup and 2) a lot of Blue Jackets fans are also fans of our brand around here, so shouts 5th Liners.

Please be patient on the timeline for when I’ll get my Hurricanes and Blue Jackets forecasts posted– it’ll be by the end of the month for sure.

Anyway, on with the Golden Knights, shall we?


Vegas is coming off of their inaugural season having finished 1st in the Pacific Division with 109 points and a 51-24-7 record under head coach Gerard Gallant. Not only did they finish at the top of their division in their first season, but they did so with over 100 points and a 50-plus win season.

Oh yeah and they played the Washington Capitals in the 2018 Stanley Cup Final.

Despite the loss in five games to Washington, the Golden Knights were and still are well ahead of owner Bill Foley’s “Cup in three [seasons]” masterplan– what with General Manager George McPhee‘s offseason additions of Paul Stastny and Max Pacioretty and everything.

This year, of course, the competition has gotten a lot tougher. There are expectations now when opponents play the Golden Knights.

Gallant and his Vegas lineup are going to have to get more creative than ever before in franchise history to avoid the hangover of a Stanley Cup Final appearance run and to avoid getting too predictable.

Things are different now. They’re no longer the new kids on the block. They’re the 2018 Western Conference champions and a team to beat.

As always, I’d like to remind you my degree is in communication– not math– therefore anything that looks wrong is either adjusted with a little gut-feeling and/or Microsoft Excel’s fault. My expertise resides in the written, spoken and nonverbal language of communicating– not numbers on a spreadsheet.

These forecasted stats are to be seen as an utopian perspective, as though nothing bad could happen this season at any point to any player– where every player at least lives up to their forecast and then some.

Some will pan out and some will fall flat. It’s a suggested outcome for a sport that’s played on ice in a highly unpredictable collective environment of action and sheer puck luck.

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Vegas Golden Knights Forecast Through 0 Games (82 Games Remaining)

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After a breakout 78-point season (43 goals, 35 assists) for William Karlsson, the Golden Knights number-one center is prime for a respectable 41-point season as part of the natural regression of the game– unless Karlsson is truly an outlier, like he was coming from Columbus to Vegas last season.

Meanwhile, Reilly Smith (19-27–46 expected totals) and Jonathan Marchessault (28-35–63 expected totals) bolster the Golden Knights first line with respectable performances of their own, while the point spread has really been shared with the second line.

Newcomers Paul Stastny (22-43–65 expected totals) and Max Pacioretty (33-30–63 expected totals) are set to become the key contributors to the fiery Vegas offense in their first season with the club.

The Golden Knights top-six core of forwards is deeper than last season, whereas the majority of their offense was reliant upon Marchessault, Karlsson and Smith. This year there’s more emphasis on Alex Tuch and Erik Haula inside the top-nine.

On defense, Gallant’s crew will have to do without Nate Schmidt for the first 20 games of the season while Schmidt serves a suspension for a performance enhancing drug.

Luckily, Brad Hunt, Colin Miller and Shea Theodore are prime for an uptick in time-on-ice and production, with Hunt and Miller expected to reach the 30-point plateau, while offseason addition, Nick Holden should see a pleasant rebound from his 17 points split between the Bruins and New York Rangers last season to a 25-point effort in 2018-19 with Vegas, provided he can remain in the top-six on the depth chart.

Upon Schmidt’s return, he should still have 4-23–27 totals from the blue line, which is not great like last season’s 5-31–36 totals, but not terrible for a top-four defender.

In goal, Marc-Andre Fleury is expected to return to Earth from his superhuman season last year (a 2.24 goals against average and .927 save percentage in 46 games) to a 2.49 GAA and .913 SV% in 2018-19. As the Golden Knights starter continues to get older, limiting his workload to keep him fresher for the postseason is the way to go.

Granted, Fleury’s playing time was limited last season due to a concussion, he still went on to have solid regular season numbers and an impeccable 2018 Stanley Cup Playoff run up until the Stanley Cup Final.

Meanwhile, Malcolm Subban‘s 2.68 GAA and .910 SV% in 22 games played look to be improved upon to a 2.65 GAA and .911 SV% in somewhere around 30 appearances as the backup netminder for Vegas.

As always, we’ll get more into the goalies once the team has played through a quarter of the season.

Vegas Golden Knights 2018-19 Season Preview

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Vegas Golden Knights

51-24-7, 109 points, 1st in the Pacific Division

Lost in Stanley Cup Final to WSH, 4-1

Additions: F Daniel Carr, G Zach Fucale, F Alex Gallant, D Nick Holden, F Curtis McKenzie, D Jimmy Oligny, F Max Pacioretty (acquired from MTL), F Paul Stastny

Subtractions: D Philip Holm (signed, KHL), F James Neal (signed with CGY), F David Perron (signed with STL), F Teemu Pulkkinen (signed, KHL), D Luca Sbisa (signed with NYI), F Nick Suzuki (traded to MTL), F Tomas Tatar (traded to MTL), F Paul Thompson (signed with FLA)

Still Unsigned: D Chris Casto, D Jason Garrison, F Mikhail Grabovski, D Clayton Stoner

Re-signed: F William Carrier, G Oscar Dansk, F William Karlsson, D Colin Miller, F Tomas Nosek, F Brandon Pirri, F Ryan Reaves, D Shea Theodore

Offseason Analysis: Only one team in the NHL’s more than a century of existence has ever won the Cup in their inaugural season. The 2017-18 Vegas Golden Knights almost joined the 1917-18 Toronto Arenas as the only teams to win the Cup in their inaugural season. Toronto beat the Pacific Coast Hockey Association’s (PCHA) Vancouver Millionaires 3-2 in a best of five-game series.

Vegas came up three wins short of winning it all in the modern-day best-of-seven game series against the Washington Capitals that the Stanley Cup Final has become.

The Golden Knights didn’t have an unfair advantage in the 2017 Expansion Draft. General Manager George McPhee worked the trade market to his advantage, primarily building the inaugural season’s core group of players through acquisitions.

Owner Bill Foley has touted the “Cup-in-three” mantra, meaning it’s his goal as an organization to win the Cup in their first three years of existence. Upon league expansion in 1967, it took the Philadelphia Flyers seven years to win their first Cup.

Foley wants to do it in half the time.

McPhee’s already gone to work on improving his roster from year one to year two. He’s added Paul Stastny via free agency and Max Pacioretty in a trade with the Montreal Canadiens.

Stastny, 32, joins the Golden Knights after spending last season with the St. Louis Blues and Winnipeg Jets. In 82 games split between the Blues and Jets, Stastny had 16-37–53 totals.

A deadline acquisition by Winnipeg, he had 13 points down the stretch in the remaining 19 games of the regular season, then had his best career performance in the postseason (15 points in 17 games) en route to the Western Conference Final against (his now current team) Vegas.

Despite Stastny’s playmaking style and ability to elevate the players around him in Patrik Laine and friends in Winnipeg, the Jets were no match for the hard-charging Golden Knights.

If you can’t beat them, join them.

The old saying rings true for Stastny, despite Winnipeg’s intentions on re-signing the veteran NHL center entering his 13th season in the league. He’ll slide in on Vegas’ second line behind William Karlsson and play alongside one of his best friends since they played together at the 2010 Winter Games, Max Pacioretty.

Yes, that’s right, Pacioretty is a Golden Knight– in case you’ve been under a rock since training camp.

At its surface, the price of the Pacioretty trade is one well spent for both teams. Vegas acquired Pacioretty in exchange for Tomas Tatar, prospect Nick Suzuki and a 2019 2nd round pick. That’s right about what you’d expect as a going rate for a top-six scorer– one current roster player, a prospect and a draft pick.

But for all that McPhee dealt to the Detroit Red Wings to add Tatar at the trade deadline last season, this Pacioretty deal carries a hefty trade-tree baggage, whereby a lot of assets were ultimately tossed in the pot for Pacioretty’s services.

At the very least, McPhee not only added a five-time 30-goal scorer, but he signed him to a four-year extension right away too. So if things don’t work out this season, the Golden Knights will remain in the hunt for the next few years.

Why’s that?

On top of their solid core group of forwards, Vegas has a crafty defense that’s capable of doing more than turning heads like they did last season. There’s just one catch though– they’ll have to do it without Nate Schmidt for the first quarter of the regular season.

Schmidt will be serving a 20-game suspension for a performance enhancing drug, leaving Colin Miller and Shea Theodore to do the bulk of the work with Brayden McNabb and Deryk Engelland rounding out the rest of the top-four defenders.

Brad Hunt and Nick Holden, in the meantime, seek to use the first 20 games as an audition for the sixth defenseman role upon Schmidt’s return to the lineup.

Miller signed a four-year extension this summer and Theodore signed a seven-year deal worth $5.200 million per season. While seven years might be a bit more than the Golden Knights can chew if Theodore’s play heads south, at least he’s signed to a manageable $5.200 million cap hit– up to 50% of which can be retained in a trade.

With an immense top-nine group of forwards and questions surrounding who will step up on defense in Schmidt’s absence, head coach Gerard Gallant must adjust accordingly as he’s always done– on-the-fly and with the complete buy-in of the dressing room.

In goal, Marc-Andre Fleury— now signed through the 2021-22 season, thanks to a three-year extension this summer on top of the remaining year on his current contract– must find a way to continue his rejuvenated play in net. Last season’s 2.24 goals against average and .927 save percentage are more than likely unattainable in back-to-back seasons.

One thing working in Fleury’s favor is his reduced workload. In his second-straight season under 50 games played, Fleury appeared in 46 games last season after battling a concussion.

Malcolm Subban (2.68 GAA, .910 SV% in 22 games played last season) is still in line to become the next Golden Knights starting netminder in the post-Fleury era, but he undoubtedly must see an increase in playing time this season.

It’s not quite a 1A, 1B option for Vegas, but rather a precaution for Fleury and a means of keeping their starter fresh for what could be another long postseason run.

Unless any of the other Pacific Division teams have anything to say about it.

Offseason Grade: B+

McPhee bolstered his top-six forward group this offseason with two simple moves, while preserving the large-scale depth of the Golden Knights prospect pool. They didn’t land Erik Karlsson, John Tavares or Ilya Kovalchuk, but they did get Max Pacioretty.

And they still have quite an impressive amount of cap space to work with next offseason as the franchise continues to settle into existence.

Down the Frozen River Podcast #115- Welcome to Arby’s

Nick, Connor and Pete decide Connor should name his first kid “Tkachuk” while revealing their top-10 left wingers of their lifetimes. Also, Ray Emery, Arby’s and Marian Hossa.

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes)Stitcher and/or on Spotify.

2018 Offseason Preview: Vegas Golden Knights

Our offseason previews for all 31 National Hockey League teams continues with the Vegas Golden Knights and their outlook for the summer.

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After shattering record after record set by previous expansion teams in their inaugural seasons, the Vegas Golden Knights compiled a 51-24-7 record and 109 points on the season in 2017-18. It was not only good enough for a playoff berth, but good enough for 1st place in the Pacific Division.

Head coach Gerard Gallant got the most out of General Manager George McPhee‘s roster, which was mostly built on trades and a mix of 2017 Expansion Draft claims, bringing the Golden Knights all the way to the Stanley Cup Final– in their first season. First postseason. First Western Conference championship. First everything.

Well, almost everything (except the Cup, which I hear Alex Ovechkin is, yep, still attached to it).

Jon Marchessault and Reilly Smith dominated the first line, while William Karlsson emerged from the shadows of the Columbus Blue Jackets into the limelight as one of the league’s top goal scorers.

He’s also a pending-RFA this summer.

But Vegas doesn’t have to worry about whatever anyone else thinks of them. They’ve already smashed through all the walls that others thought would surely contain them back Earth, yet here they are– with almost $26.500 million to spend this summer.

2018 NHL Entry Draft

McPhee’s Golden Knights do not have a first round pick in the 2018 Draft currently as Vegas packaged a 2018 first round pick, 2019 second round pick and 2021 third round pick at the trade deadline in exchange for Tomas Tatar from the Detroit Red Wings.

Tatar signed a four-year extension with Detroit last offseason and is on Vegas’s books through 2020-21 at a whopping $5.300 million cap hit. I say whopping, because that’s the most expensive cap hit on the roster currently.

Pending free agents

With almost $26.500 million to work with this offseason and some big-time renewals to hand out, McPhee’s work isn’t cut out for him, but the Golden Knights look good heading into 2018-19.

Sure, maybe they won’t get back to the Stanley Cup Final in 2019, but…

Who am I kidding? They’ve defied all logic and we’ll never see an expansion team as good as this one in their inaugural season again. No, not because of any pending changes to future expansion drafts (I’m talking post-Seattle here).

James Neal, Mikhail Grabovski, David Perron and Ryan Reaves are all pending-UFAs for Vegas.

Neal, 30, was an alternate captain this season and 25-19–44 totals in 71 games as a clutch goal-scorer and early face of the franchise. He’ll get top-dollar on the market if he doesn’t re-sign and is the only priority pending-UFA for McPhee to consider bringing back.

Grabovski, 34, is likely to never play in the NHL again, since missing the entire 2016-17 season with ongoing concussion issues.

Perron, 30, was another alternate captain on Vegas’s squad and had 16-50–66 totals in 70 games. His point production was up 20 from last season to this season and he could have some staying power as a playmaker or he could test the waters.

McPhee isn’t rushing to re-sign Neal or Perron because the future’s looking pretty bright with the Golden Knights core, plus the tremendous cap space available that could make Vegas a dark horse for John Tavares, Ilya Kovalchuk or a landing spot for an Erik Karlsson trade.

Reaves, 31, was acquired in a three-team trade with the Pittsburgh Penguins and Ottawa Senators, fitting in on Vegas’s fourth line as a tough guy that scored two important goals in the postseason. He’s a cheap bottom-six forward if McPhee likes grit, otherwise there’ll be other opportunities for Reaves to seek.

Pending-RFAs, William Karlsson, Tomas Nosek and William Carrier are more important to McPhee’s immediate plan.

Karlsson, 25, is likely to receive the biggest salary on the roster, thanks, in part to his forthcoming raise, but mostly due to his scoring ability. He had 43-35–78 totals in 82 games with the Golden Knights this season and 7-8–15 totals in 20 postseason games.

Pay up.

Nosek, 25, eased into a comfortable seven goals and eight assists (15 points) in 67 games this season, then added another four goals and two assists (six points) in 17 playoff games. By comparison, he’s no William Karlsson, but he is a dependable top-9 forward in his prime.

Likewise, Carrier, 23, is still young and coming into his own as a bottom-six forward that could see more time or about the same number of games this season (37) as next season. For depth purposes alone, Carrier matters a lot to the team.

28-year-old pending-UFA, Luca Sbisa, played a part in 30 regular season games and could remain as a depth defender if he stays, while 33-year-old pending-UFA, Clayton Stoner, is without a doubt searching for a new place to play.

If re-signing Karlsson and his other pending-RFAs is a pretty big deal for McPhee this summer, then so is locking up Colin Miller, 25, and Shea Theodore, 22, to viable contracts that won’t cost an arm and a leg, assuming the top-6 defenders continue to develop and capitalize on career seasons.

In goal, Marc-Andre Fleury, 33, has one-year left on his current deal at $5.750 million and will be looking to sign what might be his last NHL contract next summer, while backup goaltender, Malcolm Subban, 24, is also entering the final year of his $650,000 per year deal.

Subban isn’t likely to overtake Fleury in the next year or two, so both goalies should be back, but let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves, okay? It’s only 2018, not 2019.

Retained salary: Derick Brassard ($2.000 million) through 2018-19.

Other pending free agents throughout the organization include:

Brandon Pirri (UFA), Chris Casto (UFA), Paul Thompson (UFA), Maxime Lagace (UFA), Jason Garrison (UFA), Teemu Pulkkinen (RFA), Oscar Dansk (RFA), and Philip Holm (RFA)

Down the Frozen River Podcast #107- Stanley Cup Final Preview (Not Live in Vegas)

Nick and Connor contemplate going to Vegas in addition to a complete breakdown, preview and predictions for the 2018 Stanley Cup Final.

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

How the Vegas Golden Knights got here

The Vegas Golden Knights had 500-1 odds of winning the Stanley Cup in their inaugural season back in October. Now, they’re just four wins away.

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Let’s clarify a few things here:

1. The team has a lot of leadership.

Whether it’s Jon Marchessault, James Neal, David Perron, Deryk Engelland or Marc-Andre Fleury, the Golden Knights have a deep locker room of leaders.

And that’s not doing enough justice to give their head coach, Gerard Gallant, some credit for the way the team’s carried themselves.

2. The team has a lot of playoff experience.

Vegas general manager George McPhee didn’t look for just a bunch of nobody’s. This is Fleury’s fifth appearance in the Stanley Cup Final– and third straight.

Entering this postseason, only the following Golden Knights regulars had zero games of playoff experience– Ryan Carpenter, William Carrier, Tomas Nosek, Malcolm Subban (their backup goaltender, not likely to see any playing time with Fleury existing) and Alex Tuch.

Fleury (115 games), Neal (80), Perron (42), Ryan Reaves (36), Engelland (28), Erik Haula (24), Nate Schmidt (21), Luca Sbisa (20) and Shea Thoedore (20) all had at least 20 games of playoff experience coming into the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Reaves, of course, was acquired prior to the trade deadline. Primarily for his scoring prowess in an elimination game, obviously. Wait.

3. The 2017 Expansion Draft was not rigged.

Nobody told Florida Panthers general manager Dale Tallon he had to a) leave Marchessault exposed and b) trade Reilly Smith to Vegas to ensure they wouldn’t select someone other than Marchessault at the Expansion Draft.

Let’s reword that a bit.

Marchessault was left exposed and the Panthers did not specify that he was untouchable as part of the Smith deal. Florida encouraged Vegas to take on Smith’s $5.000 million cap hit through the 2021-22 season after one down year with the Panthers.

The Golden Knights were the scapegoat for salary cap mismanagement by other NHL teams and everyone thought Vegas wouldn’t turn out to be this way.

Fleury was assured of being selected by McPhee and Co. thanks to Pittsburgh’s tight cap after winning back-to-back Cups along with their goaltending situation in which Matt Murray had rightfully taken the starting goaltender role. The Penguins even sent a 2018 second round pick in the trade to persuade Vegas to select Fleury in the Expansion Draft instead of a guy like Brian Dumoulin.

William Karlsson had underperformed with the Columbus Blue Jackets and was left exposed to Vegas as part of a deal that saw the Golden Knights take on David Clarkson‘s deadweight contract.

A happy accident– or more accurately, superb scouting and foresight. That same scouting led to nailing more than one needle in a haystack.

Alex Tuch? Traded by the Minnesota Wild to Vegas as part of an agreement that McPhee would select Erik Haula.

The Anaheim Ducks traded Theodore to Vegas so the Golden Knights would take Clayton Stoner and not one of Anaheim’s young core players of the future.

Finally, the talent pool is better than ever before. The Golden Knights were bound to stockpile a few good players as a result of stacked rosters (in theory) across the 30 other NHL clubs.

McPhee also worked the phones and made more than a few trades and depth signings in free agency.

Maxime Lagace and Oscar Dansk were both free agent signings that held things over for Vegas in the net while Fleury and Subban were injured for almost the first quarter of the regular season. Dansk went down with an injury himself four games into the Golden Knights third-string goaltending emergency relief plan.

When the Golden Knights turned to Dylan Ferguson in goal it was only possible because of McPhee’s deal with the Dallas Stars in which defender Marc Methot, who was claimed at the Expansion Draft by Vegas, was flipped to Dallas for Ferguson and a 2020 second round pick.

Not every selection made by Vegas in the 2017 Expansion Draft suited up for the Golden Knights.

Trevor van Riemsdyk was packaged with a 2018 seventh round pick to the Carolina Hurricanes for Pittsburgh’s 2017 second round pick (Jake Leschyshyn).

David Schlemko was flipped to the Montreal Canadiens for a 2019 fifth round pick.

Alexei Emelin was sent to the Nashville Predators for a 2018 third round pick.

Despite appearing in preseason action for Vegas, last season’s backup goaltender with the Colorado Avalanche– turned AHL backup goaltender with the Toronto Marlies this season– Calvin Pickard was dealt to the Maple Leafs for a 2018 sixth round pick and Tobias Lindberg.

Pickard’s trade was spurned by McPhee finding a better backup goaltender at no cost to the organization– Malcolm Subban.

Subban was claimed off waivers from Boston after the Bruins waited a few days after waivers went into effect to decide on sending him to Providence.

Ryan Carpenter? Another claim off waivers– midseason— from the San Jose Sharks.

It’s a professional league. It’s a free market. Something, something, stop complaining because your team has a history of letting you down. The Golden Knights will let their fans down in time, just like every other professional sports franchise in the history of all major professional North American sports.

But for now, why not enjoy the ride?

They swept a 1967 expansion team in the First Round, they defeated a 1990s expansion team in the Second Round and now they’ve beaten a late-1990s expansion franchise that relocated to Winnipeg in 2011 for the Western Conference championship.

There’s never going to be another run quite like this and if it ends in a Stanley Cup championship maybe we should all meet in Vegas for the afterparty. Celebrate the sport.

Jets land Golden Knights a loss in WCF Game 1

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Three unanswered goals almost eight minutes into the first period held up over the rest of the game, Saturday night at Bell MTS Place as the Winnipeg Jets beat the Vegas Golden Knights 4-2 in Game 1 of the 2018 Western Conference Final.

Connor Hellebuyck made 19 saves on 21 shots faced for a .905 save percentage in the win for the Jets, while Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 22 shots out of 26 shots against for an .846 SV% in 57:21 time on ice in the loss for Vegas.

It didn’t take long for Winnipeg’s home-ice advantage to kick in as Dustin Byfuglien (5) blasted a slap shot past Fleury 65 seconds into the action Saturday night, giving the Jets a 1-0 lead.

Mark Scheifele (6) and Blake Wheeler (13) had the assists on the goal that was made possible thanks to a turnover in Vegas’s attacking zone.

Not long after, Alex Tuch took the game’s first penalty— a minor for hooking Winnipeg’s Bryan Little— and the Golden Knights found themselves shorthanded against one of the best power play units in this postseason.

Wheeler worked a cross-ice pass through the low slot to Patrik Laine on the ensuing player advantage and Laine (4) promptly sent a one-timer past Fleury to give the Jets a two-goal lead. Wheeler (14) and Paul Stastny (9) had the assists on the goal at 6:49 of the first period and Winnipeg led, 2-0.

Less than a minute later, the Jets worked another one past the Vegas netminder on a deflection thanks to the skates of Joel Armia (2).

Though the goal was originally waved off, after review (courtesy of a coach’s challenge) it was determined there was no goaltender interference and the call on the ice was overturned. In the eyes of the situation room, Armia had not entered the crease and interfered with Fleury’s ability to make a save too close to receiving/deflecting the puck anyway, despite the fact that Armia had bumped into the Golden Knights goalie prior to scoring.

Nevertheless, Ben Chiarot (3) had the only assist on the goal and the Jets led, 3-0, at 7:35 of the first period.

Fleury and the Golden Knights had allowed three goals on eight shots against in less than eight minutes into the action.

Despite this, Vegas was determined to get one of their own past Hellebuyck and begin the slow climb back on the scoreboard.

Jonathan Marchessault worked the puck from behind the goal line back to Brayden McNabb (2) as the Vegas blueliner snuck in the attacking zone on a delayed call against the Jets. McNabb quickly fired a shot that deflected off of Winnipeg rookie Kyle Connor’s stick and behind Hellebuyck, high-glove side.

The Golden Knights cut the lead to two and Marchessault (8) and Reilly Smith (11) notched the assists on McNabb’s goal at 8:10 of the first period. Winnipeg led, 3-1, and the home crowd was unfazed.

In fact, Jets fans continued taunting Fleury with Bronx cheers for every save and the introduction of the phrase “we want Subban” (as in, Golden Knights backup goaltender, Malcolm Subban) to their lexicon.

Winnipeg’s captain, Blake Wheeler, however, took a trip into the away bench on a hit delivered from Golden Knights tough guy, Ryan Reaves. Vegas, to their credit, did help Wheeler get back on his feet after flipping head first over the boards.

Past the halfway mark in the first period, Erik Haula slashed Laine and the Jets went on their second power play of the night. It was not as successful as their first man advantage of the game and the Golden Knights generated a couple quality shorthanded scoring chances.

Jets defender, Jacob Trouba, interfered with Tuch at 16:51 of the first period and the Golden Knights went on the power play for the first time, but did not convert on the ensuing advantage.

After one period, Winnipeg led, 3-1, on the scoreboard and 2:1 in shots on goal (12-6). Both teams had blocked five shots each, while Vegas had an advantage in hits (18-13) and Winnipeg led in takeaways (3-0), giveaways (7-5) and faceoff win percentage (72-28). The Golden Knights were 0/1 on the power play and the Jets were 1/2 on the advantage after 20 minutes of play.

Four players took matching minor penalties for roughing just over five minutes into the second period as things heated up on the ice after the whistle. Colin Miller, Oscar Lindberg, Mathieu Perreault and Brandon Tanev each went to the sin bin for their respective sides and play remained even at 5-on-5.

McNabb hooked Wheeler on a breakaway at 9:10 of the second period as Wheeler shot the puck wide through the crease while Fleury was in desperation save mode.

The Jets didn’t waste much time on the player advantage before converting as it only took 44 seconds for Scheifele (12) to redirect a shot from the point by Byfuglien past Fleury to make it a three-goal game.

Scheifele’s goal on the power play came at 9:54 of the second period and made it, 4-1, Winnipeg. Byfuglien (10) and Wheeler (15) had the assists, capping off a three-assist night for Wheeler.

Late in the period, Chiarot tripped James Neal and the Golden Knights went on the power play with just under five minutes to go until the second intermission.

William Karlsson (5) redirected a pass from Marchessault into the twine and cut the lead to two at 15:55 of the second period. Marchessault (9) and Shea Theodore (4) notched the assists on the power play goal for Vegas that made it, 4-2.

Through 40 minutes of play, the Jets were in control, 4-2, on the scoreboard and, 22-13, in shots on goal. Winnipeg also led in blocked shots (13-7), hits (27-25), takeaways (8-1), giveaways (10-9) and faceoff win percentage (62-38). The Golden Knights were 1/2 on the power play while Winnipeg was 2/3 on the man advantage after two periods.

Reaves tripped Adam Lowry early in the third period, but the Jets did not convert on the ensuing advantage in the only penalty called in the game’s final frame.

Neither team found the back of the twine as the Golden Knights frantically searched for a way to score two goals to tie the game, having pulled their goaltender with about 2:35 remaining in regulation.

Gerard Gallant used his team’s only timeout at the next stoppage in play to try to draw up a plan, but Vegas’s best efforts were no match for Paul Maurice’s Winnipeg Jets, despite Winnipeg’s inability to land a shot in the empty net.

At the final horn the Jets had won, 4-2, and jumped out to a 1-0 series lead in sheer dominance in Game 1 of the Western Conference Final.

Winnipeg finished the night leading in shots on goal (26-21), blocked shots (22-10), hits (33-30), giveaways (14-11), and faceoff win percentage (56-44). Both teams went .500 on the power play as the Jets went 2/4 and Vegas went 1/2 on the man advantage.

Game 2 is Monday night in Winnipeg, where the Bell MTS Centre crowd looks to energize their team to a 2-0 series lead. Puck drop is set for a little after 8:00 p.m. ET and viewers in the United States can tune in on NBCSN, while fans in Canada can catch the action on CBC, SN or TVAS.

March 31 – Day 171 – Flower Power vs. everybody

Including today, only nine days of regular season hockey are left this year! Are you excited for the playoffs yet?

Play starts at 1 p.m. today with Florida at Boston (SN), followed an hour later by Ottawa at Detroit (SN1/TVAS). Columbus at Vancouver (SN360) completes the afternoon’s matinees, as the next four tilts (Winnipeg at Toronto [CBC/SN], the New York Islanders at New Jersey, Montréal at Pittsburgh [CITY/NHLN/SN360/TVAS] and the New York Rangers at Carolina) wait until the usual 7 p.m. starting time. 8 p.m. mark the puck drop of a pair of tilts (Buffalo at Nashville and Minnesota at Dallas), while St. Louis at Arizona waits an hour before getting underway. Finally, Edmonton at Calgary (CBC/SN/SN360) gets green-lit at 10 p.m., followed half an hour later by tonight’s nightcap: San Jose at Vegas. All times Eastern.

A few of the games that stuck out to me – at least at the beginning of the season – include:

  • Florida at Boston: Welcome back to Beantown, F Frank Vatrano! Let’s see if you can get an important two points for your new team against the one that traded you.
  • Columbus at Vancouver: Speaking of trades, the deadline swap that sent W Thomas Vanek to Ohio might be among the most impactful this season.
  • Buffalo at Nashville: Another return will occur in this game, but this one features Phil Housley at Bridgestone Arena, the place he’d been an assistant coach for the past four seasons.
  • Edmonton at Calgary: Even though both of these sides are ineligible for the postseason, don’t expect the nastiness to see any sort of decline.

Of those, the Panthers-Bruins game is obviously the most impactful on this postseason. However, there’s also the Jets-Maple Leafs and Sharks-Golden Knights games taking place today, both of which are certainly worthy of our attention.

Though I would recommend watching all three, we may only feature one in this column. As such, let’s make the trip to the Silver State to get a preview of a potential second round matchup.

 

 

 

 

 

It’s been a wild ride for the 49-22-7 Golden Knights this regular season, and much to the delight of them and their fans, there’s still at least one more chapter to be written in the playoffs.

However, it doesn’t seem like Vegas is looking too far ahead into the playoffs, as they’re still playing some exemplary hockey down the stretch even though they’ve already clinched a playoff spot. Since March 18, Vegas has posted a wildly impressive 4-1-2 record to hold on to its spot atop the Pacific Division.

Is it any surprise that a three-time Stanley Cup champion is the one leading the Knights down the stretch? 28-12-4 G Marc-Andre Fleury has been phenomenal in his last five starts, even despite a defense that has allowed an average of 33 shots against per game since March 18, the 11th-most in the league in that time.

Even facing that almost constant pressure, Fleury has managed an imposing .964 save percentage and 1.14 GAA over that stretch that’s even better than the .931 save percentage and 2.15 GAA he’s posted for the entire regular season, both of which are second-best in the NHL among qualified goaltenders.

With 12-3-2 G Malcolm Subban playing in Vegas’ 4-3 overtime victory last night against the Blues, Fleury will be totally rested and prepared for whatever San Jose throws at him tonight.

Speaking of, if we want to talk about teams closing the regular season on a hot run, the 44-24-10 Sharks have to enter into that conversation. San Jose has managed an 8-1-1 record over its last 10 games, due in large part to its unstoppable offense.

None have been able to keep the Sharks under control lately, as they come to Vegas averaging 4.2 goals per game since March 12, the best attack in the Western Conference and second-best in the NHL.

What might be the most impressive thing about San Jose’s attack is that, short of D Brent Burns‘ 1-9-10 marks in his last 10 games, no other skater is averaging at least a point per game during this run. That means that instead of one Shark dominating the game, it’s instead the entire offense contributing.

That’s no more apparent than when we look at who has been on the receiving end of Burns’ last nine assists. With the exception of F Logan Couture and F Joe Pavelski both scoring two goals following passes from Burns, no player has scored more than one goal with an assist from the defenseman in San Jose’s last 10 games. In total, seven different players have benefited from a Burns helper, representing all four lines of forwards.

Much to the disappointment of hockey fans, tonight marks the finale of the regular season series between these two squads. Having earned five points against the Sharks to their three, Vegas has had the upper hand so far this year when taking on San Jose, but the visitors could level the series tonight with a regulation win.

San Jose and Vegas first squared off on November 24 at T-Mobile Arena, where the Golden Knights held on to win a wild 5-4 game in overtime (F Jon Marchessault scored the game-winner). Game 2 wasn’t until February 8 at SAP Center, but home ice didn’t help the Sharks avoid a 5-3 loss (Fleury earned First Star honors with his 35-save effort).

Most recently, the Knights returned to San Jose on March 22 – only nine days ago – to finally suffer their first defeat at the hands fins of the Sharks, who won 2-1 in overtime (that game-winner belonged to Couture).

Should San Jose be able to earn a regulation win tonight, it would level the season series against Vegas at five points apiece.

Of course, that’s not the main reason the Sharks want to win this game. Currently trailing the Golden Knights by seven points, there’s still technically an outside shot they could dismantle Vegas from atop the Pacific Division. After tonight’s game, both clubs will have three games remaining on the schedule, meaning the Sharks would need to effectively win out while Vegas also loses all three tilts in regulation.

What a matchup we are about to witness! No one has been able to slow down the Sharks’ attack lately, yet no offense has been able to beat Fleury. Even though they’re on the road, I like the Sharks to win this game since they’ve been able to find offensive contributions from their entire team lately. That constant pressure should be enough to wear Fleury down.


In a defensive affair that surprisingly featured only one penalty, the Anaheim Ducks beat the Los Angeles Kings 2-1 in overtime in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day at Honda Center.

The Kings wasted no time in finding their regulation goal, as D Drew Doughty (C Anze Kopitar and W Dustin Brown) scored a wrist shot 6:01 into the game to give Los Angeles the advantage.

Anaheim didn’t respond until 3:05 remained in the second period. Third Star of the Game LW Nick Ritchie (D Francois Beauchemin and W Ondrej Kase) banged home a backhanded shot to level the game at 1-1.

The defenses really amped up their games in the third period, as only a combined nine shots made it on goal in the final 20 minutes. In particular, the Kings’ D-corps played especially well, limiting the Ducks to only two scoring opportunities to keep the game tied at the end of regulation.

That defensive theme continued through most of the overtime period, as it took 4:41 of three-on-three play before First Star F Rickard Rakell (D Brandon Montour and Kase) scored his third game-winner of the season.

Montour and Kase earned assists, but this goal was all about Rakell. He carried the puck from blue line to blue line, even with F Trevor Lewis doing his best to maintain a defensive presence. Once Rakell finally reached the right face-off dot, he used D Alec Martinez as a screen to rip an elevated snap shot to the far post, beating helpless G Jonathan Quick before he could even react.

G John Gibson earned the victory after saving 28-of-29 shots faced (.966 save percentage), leaving the overtime loss to Quick, who saved 31-of-33 (.939).

Another DtFR Game of the Day, another home victory. The Ducks are the seventh-consecutive host to win their game in the featured series, and they also extend the 97-53-21 home teams’ point streak to nine games. Hosts in the series now have a 44-point lead on the roadies.

March 24 – Day 164 – Unpredictability at its finest

It’s a busy Saturday in the NHL, so let’s jump right into today’s schedule!

First up is Vegas at Colorado (SN1) at 3 p.m., trailed an hour later by Calgary at San Jose as the only other matinee of the day. A whopping eight games (Detroit at Toronto [CBC], Washington at Montréal [NHLN/SN/TVAS], Carolina at Ottawa [CITY/SN1], Arizona at Florida, Tampa Bay at New Jersey, Chicago at the New York Islanders, Buffalo at the New York Rangers and St. Louis at Columbus) drop the puck at 7 p.m., followed by Nashville at Minnesota 60 minutes later. Finally, tonight’s nightcap – Los Angeles at Edmonton (CBC/SN/SN1) – drops the puck at 10 p.m. to close out the day’s festivities. All times Eastern.

Some of the games I’ve had my eye on include…

  • Detroit at Toronto: Including this one, there’s only four more Original Six matchups left this regular season! Get ’em in while you can!
  • Arizona at Florida: D Jason Demers spent all of last season with the Panthers. Hopefully the Florida faithful will give him a warm welcome tonight.
  • Chicago at New York: With G Jean-Francois Berube and G Anton Forsberg competing for next season’s backup job, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the former get tonight’s start against his former team.
  • Los Angeles at Edmonton: Consider this your fourth and final reminder of the season that the Oilers traded away C Wayne Gretzky.

However, none of those matchups feature two teams still in the hunt for the postseason. Instead, let’s make the trip to Denver to see what the Avs can do to the Knights!

 

 

 

 

 

This has been far from a bad week for the 47-21-6 Golden Knights, as they’ve posted a 2-0-1 record over their past three games in spite of 27-11-3 G Marc-Andre Fleury joining Reilly Smith on Vegas’ injury list.

There was certainly concern when Fleury went down with his head injury in Tuesday’s tilt against the Canucks – not only for the player, but also for the team’s performance. After all, the only reason the Golden Knights shutout the Flames on Sunday was because Fleury put on an amazing performance, saving all 42 shots Calgary fired.

However, 11-3-2 G Malcolm Subban has easily taken command of the crease in Fleury’s stead, as he completed the starter’s game against Vancouver by allowing a lone goal and followed it up by yielding only two tallies and forcing overtime against the Sharks on Thursday.

As hinted at before with Fleury’s performance against Calgary, the reason the goaltenders have been so incredible lately is because they’ve been the only line of defense lately. Since March 18, the Golden Knights have allowed an average of 38.67 shots against per game, the second-most of any team in the league in that time.

It remains to be seen which goaltender will earn the start this afternoon, as Fleury was seen on ice for practice in Denver today.

Incredibly, the 40-26-8 Avalanche have been one of the best feel good stories of the year in a season that features an expansion team posing a real threat for winning the Stanley Cup. That’s been no less true over the past 16 games, as Colorado has earned a 9-3-4 record since February 20.

The biggest reason for the Avs’ success this season has been their impressive offense, headed by 2014 Calder-winner F Nathan MacKinnon. Over Colorado’s last 16 games, MacKinnon has posted unbelievable 14-17-31 totals – one point short of averaging two points per game over this run – to improve his season marks to 38-54-92.

But it hasn’t been just MacKinnon. F Mikko Rantanen and D Tyson Barrie have also been unstoppable lately, managing respective 9-18-27 and 7-14-21 marks since February 20. With Barrie gelling so well with Colorado’s top line, there’s little that can slow down this attack.

While it might be a little extreme to say Vegas doesn’t care about this match or any other until Game 1 of the Stanley Cup playoffs, the Golden Knights’ fortunes really don’t change all that much with a win, loss or draw. Vegas currently trails Nashville by six points for the Presidents’ Trophy, but that lead is even greater considering the Predators have a game in hand. Similarly, the Knights aren’t all that concerned with second-place San Jose catching up and challenging for the Pacific Division title, as they have a seven-point advantage over their NorCal nemeses.

However, the same cannot be said for the Avalanche, as they have fallen back into the second wild card after Anaheim’s overtime loss last night in Winnipeg. Since tonight’s tilt is Colorado’s game in hand on the Ducks (at least until tomorrow when Anaheim is in Edmonton while the Avs are dormant), it needs to earn at least one point to jump back into the first wild card. Should the Avs fall in regulation, they risk relinquishing their playoff position to St. Louis, which has a tough matchup of its own in Columbus.

Colorado and Vegas have squared off only once so far this season, and it was far from a pleasurable experience for the Avs. Colorado was invited to T-Mobile Arena on October 27, where it was pounded into oblivion by the Knights to a 7-0 final score. G Oscar Dansk earned First Star honors with a perfect 32-save performance, while 11 different Golden Knights registered at least a point – four of which posted 1-1-2 totals on the night.

Whether it’s Fleury or Subban in net today, they are going to face a tough task in trying to slow down the Avs’ dominating attack. Though they’ve been good this season, I think Colorado has what it takes to earn two points at home today.


Even though the Pittsburgh Penguins were able to rally from a 3-1 deficit in the third period, the New Jersey Devils won yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day at PPG Paints Arena 4-3 in overtime.

The Devils would eventually score their three goals, but not before the Penguins would take an initial one-goal lead. Third Star of the Game C Sidney Crosby (D Jamie Oleksiak and F Jake Guentzel) scored his 25th goal of the season 2:29 into play, burying a wrist shot to give Pittsburgh a 1-0 advantage that held into the first intermission.

Head Coach John Hynes must have had some choice words for his club during the first break, because New Jersey absolutely dominated the second frame – or, at least 3:39 of it. D Will Butcher (D Damon Severson and First Star F Taylor Hall) pulled the Devils even 5:15 into the frame with a power play snap shot, followed only 2:05 later by a F Blake Coleman (W Drew Stafford and C Pavel Zacha) backhanded shot that gave Jersey the lead. Second Star C Nico Hischier (D John Moore and Hall) completed the Devils’ blitz with a wrister at the 8:54 mark to give them a 3-1 lead that they held into the second intermission.

Facing a two-goal deficit, Pittsburgh didn’t waste much time in starting its comeback after the start of the third period. Only 3:13 into the frame, D Brian Dumoulin (Crosby) halved the Devils’ advantage with a slap shot, his fifth goal of the season. The goal horn was brought to life once again 7:39 later, this time by RW Phil Kessel (C Derick Brassard and W Conor Sheary) to level the game at 3-3.

With that tie holding through the end of regulation, the game advanced into five minutes of three-on-three play. However, Hall (Hischier) needed only 27 seconds of those five minutes to find the game-winner.

After struggling mightily under an intense forecheck by the Penguins his own defensive zone, Hischier finally ended up with the puck on his stick long enough to fling a pass to Hall waiting near the blue line into the Devils’ offensive zone. Unfortunately for the Penguins, the very defense that was causing such troubles proved to be extremely beneficial to Hall, as he had only G Matt Murray to beat to end the game, which he did with a wrister through the netminder’s five-hole.

G Keith Kinkaid earned the victory after saving 40-of-43 shots faced (.93 save percentage), leaving the overtime loss to Murray, who saved 30-of-34 (.882).

Road teams in the DtFR Game of the Day have been an incredibly difficult out lately, as they’ve earned points in 11 of the last 14 featured matchups. As such, the 90-53-21 hosts now have only a 34-point advantage in the series.

Numbers Game: Vegas Through 60

Derick Brassard was briefly a Golden Knight. Yes, he was flipped from Ottawa to Vegas to Pittsburgh as part of Friday’s three-team trade and technically speaking, he never suited up for Vegas so it doesn’t actually count, but Brassard was once a Golden Knight.

Now, as a result of the Brassard trade, Ryan Reaves is the newest player in Vegas.

Through 60 games (entering Friday), the Vegas Golden Knights are still 1st in the Pacific Division. William Karlsson is in the midst of a career year, Marc-Andre Fleury and James Neal probably won’t be traded at the deadline like everyone thought they would and there’s a real possibility this whole “Cup in One” mantra actually works out.

Thanks in part to the crazy scheduling this time of year– between the NHL, the Winter Games in PyeongChang, the upcoming trade deadline on Monday and much, much more– I was finally able to squeeze in the time to update Golden Knights projections with 22 games remaining in their schedule.

The only problem is that they’ve now played Game 61 of 82 and added Ryan Reaves. So basically, here’s everything I had before anything that happened on Friday.

I’ll try to come up with some projections for Reaves and any other potential acquisitions Vegas makes between now and the deadline, but there’s no promises. Every year around the deadline my database needs constant updating and as a result some things get bogged down until I physically go through every stat.

I do get around to it (eventually) and these players will be reflected in any subsequent projection posts.

Anyway, on with the show…

The Golden Knights aren’t good. They’re great.

Check out the latest forecast in the charts below. Keep in mind, as always, that anything that sounds ridiculous is Microsoft Excel’s fault. I’m just kidding. There are always outliers and unrealistic projections. Alas, these are merely utopian, Excel driven, guesses.

Standard disclaimer, my degree is in communication– not math or #fancystats.

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Vegas Golden Knights Projections Through 60 Games (22 Games Remaining)

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The sensational season continues and down the stretch as Erik Haula, Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, Neal, David Perron and Reilly Smith are all expected to amass somewhere around 60-points (or more).

Colin Miller‘s emergence as a top defenseman in the Western Conference continues as he nears the 40-point plateau by seasons end. Also, look at Shea Theodore fitting right in as a top-4 quality defenseman just entering his prime. Miller, Nate Schmidt and Theodore for years to come in Vegas should mean many great things.

Meanwhile, Fleury’s incredible run in goal begins to cool off just a little. His goals against average begins to reflect an “average” year for Fleury, which– granted– is still better than a lot of goaltenders in the NHL. Fleury’s save percentage should be just fine down the stretch– if not potentially league-leading.