Down the Frozen River

Tag: Kuznetsov

January 7 – Day 89 – For a team that calls themselves the Caps, you’d figure their logo would be in all-caps like the Islanders…

First Star of the Game Bo Horvat scored twice in the third period to clinch the 3-2 Vancouver victory in Yesterday’s Game of the Day against the Carolina Hurricanes.

It was actually the Canes that struck first in this one, but it wasn’t until 28:02 had ticked off the clock. It was an important score for Carolina, as Jordan Staal earned his ninth assist of the season, helping Second Star John-Michael Liles to a short-handed goal, the first of the year for the squad. Vancouver leveled the score with 2:21 remaining on the clock when Adam Cracknell and Christopher Tanev assisted Third Star Sven Baertschi, the score that held into the second intermission.

The Canucks took their first lead of the game when Matt Bartkowski (his eighth assist of the season) and Alex Biega assisted Horvat 7:15 after resuming play. Their lead was short-lived though, as Noah Hanifin assisted Staal to his eighth goal of the season to knot the score at two. The game-winner came with only 1:06 remaining on the clock, courtesy of Horvat after being assisted by Baertschi (his seventh on the season) and Linden Vey on the power play.

These Swedish goalkeepers go way back, even before their NHL days. Eddie Läck began backing up Jacob Markstrom in 2009, when both played for Brynäs IF, and continued their relationship into the NHL, as both played in the Canucks‘ system. Markstrom got the advantage in this one, saving 26 of 28 (92.9%) to improve his record to 5-5-3. Läck’s record falls to 5-7-3 after saving 18 of 21 (85.7%).

Today’s Thursday schedule is an exciting one, with eight playoff teams in action. The festivities get started at 7 p.m. eastern when Washington visits the New York Islanders (TVAS/SN360), followed half an hour later by Florida at Ottawa (RDS). Philadelphia at Minnesota (NBCSN) gets started at 8 p.m. eastern, followed 30 minutes later by Winnipeg at Dallas. 9 p.m. eastern starts the Arizona at Calgary game, and this evening’s nightcaps start an hour and a half later (Toronto at Los Angeles and Detroit at San Jose).

Four of tonight’s games are between division rivals (Washington at New York, Florida at Ottawa, Winnipeg at Dallas and Arizona at Calgary), and Washington at New York represents the only game between two playoff qualifiers in addition to being an Eastern Conference Quarterfinal rematch.

Take all that information into account, and I challenge you to take a guess as to which game we’ll watch…

Washington has been featured in the DtFR Game of the Day series sixth times before this evening, and own a 3-3-0 record under such circumstances. Their most recent showing in the series was a 7-3 victory in Madison Square Garden against the New York Rangers on December 20. New York has been featured only one time before, a 4-0 victory over the Devils on December 13.

The 29-7-3 Washington Capitals are currently the best team in the NHL, leading the Metropolitan Division by 12 points, the Eastern Conference by nine points, and the league by a lone point. Almost every facet of their game works to a t, as they lead the league in goals against and are second in goals for.

Good defenses keep the puck off their goalie as much as possible, and that is exactly what the Caps are doing. Thanks in part to Karl Alzner’s 103 blocks, they’ve allowed only 1105 shots to reach 25-4-2 Braden Holtby and co., who’ve collectively saved 92.9% (leads the league average by 1.3%) for only 84 goals against, 21 below the league average and tops in the NHL. Washington‘s been even better on the penalty kill, where they’ve saved 84.21% of the 114 attempts they’ve defended (3.51% above the league average), allowing only 18 goals.

Another thing good defenses do is get the puck to their forwards, and these forwards are some of the best in the business as well. Led by Alex Ovechkin’s 192 shots, the Capitals have put the puck on net 1183 times, of which 10.3% have found the back of the net for 122 tallies (led by Ovechkin’s 21). They’ve been especially potent on the power play, scoring on 25.83% of their attempts for 31 goals (led by Ovechkin’s seven).

The Caps‘ most recent showing was a 3-2 victory in Boston on Tuesday.

The 22-13-5 New York Islanders currently sit in second place in the Metropolitan Division and third in the Eastern Conference. Similar to Washington, the Isles play a very balanced game, but New York slightly favors the offensive end.

So far this season, New York has put 1191 shots on net (led by John Tavares’ 113), of which 9.2% have turned into goals for 110 tallies (led by Tavares’ 15), eighth-most in the league. Probably the biggest deficiency in the offense has been their power play. On 112 attempts, the Isles have scored 21 goals (led by Frans Nielsen’s four) for a 18.75% success rate that trails the league average by .55%.

What makes this Islanders team good is that the offense isn’t playing this well to overcome defensive or goaltending struggles. Although Calvin de Haan has 100 blocks to his credit, 1210 shots have still made their way to 12-6-2 Thomas Greiss and co., who have collectively saved 92.5% for only 97 goals against. And even though one special team has been struggling doesn’t mean that the other is. New York‘s penalty kill is great, killing 85.59% of 118 attempts for only 17 goals against.

The Isles‘ most recent game was a 6-5 victory over the Stars on Sunday.

Some players to watch in tonight’s game include New York‘s Greiss (.928 save percentage [sixth-best in the league]) or Jaroslav Halak (2.09 GAA [seventh-best in the league]) & Washington‘s Holtby (25 wins [best in the league], 1.93 GAA [second-best in the league] and .932 save percentage [tied for third-best in the league]), Evgeny Kuznetsov (+18 [tied for fourth-best in the league]) and Ovechkin (21 goals [fifth-best in the league] and +15 [tenth-best in the league]).

Last season, these squads met in the first round of the playoffs, with Washington needing all seven games to knock off the Islanders. Both teams seem to have improved since then, making this game and the season-series all the better to watch.

It doesn’t matter where they play, it is tough to pick against Washington. The Islanders and their fans will put up a good fight, especially given how the playoffs went last year, but I think the Capitals can get out of the Barclays Center with two points.

January 7, 2016
December 20 – Day 74 – The Caps are heading back to the Garden!

Dallas proved their position as one of, if not the best team in the league by beating Montréal 6-2 in yesterday’s Game of the Day.

The Stars scored the first goal of the game after only 1:34 minutes of play, the lone goal of the first period. Second Star of the Game Jason Spezza is credited with the tally, his 12th of the season, assisted by Ales Hemsky.

Even quicker than Spezza scored his goal, First Star Jamie Benn scored his, as he scored his unassisted goal at the 1:24 mark of the second. 1:42 later, Patrick Sharp scored the eventual game-winning power play goal, assisted by Third Star Tyler Seguin and Spezza. The Habs finally got on the board on a power play of their own, when Tomas Fleischmann and P.K. Subban assisted Daniel Carr to his second goal of the season at the 11:35 mark, setting the score at 3-1. Any momentum the Canadiens had built though, was squelched by another Stars goal, this one courtesy of Seguin at the 13:51 mark, assisted by Alex Goligoski and Benn. The 4-1 score held into the second intermission.

It was a night of quick starts for the Stars, as they scored their fifth goal only 31 seconds into the third. Benn notched his second of the night, assisted by Sharp and Spezza. 3:41 later, the Can scored their final goal of the season when Brian Flynn assisted Paul Byron to a shorty. On that same power play, Dallas scored their sixth goal of the evening at the 4:27 mark when Vernon Fiddler assisted Patrick Eaves to the second goal of his season, setting the score at the 6-2 final.

13-5-2 Antti Niemi earned the win after saving 21 of 23 (91.3%), while Mike Condon’s record falls to 9-7-3 after saving 17 of 23 (73.9%). He was pulled after 44:27 for Dustin Tokarski, who saved all four shots he faced.

The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 28-10-6, favoring the home team by 28 points.

Six games will be played on this Sunday, with the action getting started at 4 p.m. eastern when Vancouver visits Florida, followed an hour later by two more games (New Jersey at Boston and Ottawa at Tampa Bay [RDS2]). Finally, three games share the nightcap role, all starting at 7 p.m. eastern (Calgary at Detroit [SN], Washington at the New York Rangers [NHLN/TVAS] and San Jose at Chicago).

Two of today’s games are between divisional rivals (Ottawa at Tampa Bay and Washington at New York), as well as two involving two teams between current playoff qualifiers (Washington at New York and San Jose at Chicago). Lastly, Washington–New York is also a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Semifinal.

In other words, we’re watching Washington at New York, just in case you couldn’t figure that out!

The Capitals have been featured in the DtFR Game of the Day series five times, where they currently own a 2-3-0 record. The Rangers have been featured an additional two times, and they have a 5-1-1 record.

The 23-6-2 Washington Capitals currently lead both the Atlantic Division as well as the Eastern Conference, trailing the Stars by only two points for the league lead. They are riding a four-game win streak, with their most recent game a 5-3 victory over the Lightning on Friday. The Caps play a superior game on both ends of the ice, but their strength has actually been on the ice, which is surprising for a team with Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Alex Ovechkin.

20-4-1 Braden Holtby and co. have allowed only 857 shots, helped by Karl Alzner’s 76 blocks. Of those shots, only 67 have found the back of the net (92.6% save rate), which ranks second-best in the league. The Caps‘ penalty kill is not so much their defense, but that they do not commit many penalties. Washington has only had to defend 87 power plays, and given up 14 goals (83.91% kill rate).

As we’ve grown accustomed to, Washington‘s offense is also very good. Although they’ve only shot the puck 936 times (led by Ovechkin’s 155), they’ve scored a whopping 94 goals (led by Ovechkin’s 16), sixth best in the league. Especially potent has been the Caps‘ power play, which has a 25% success rate.

They are visiting the 19-11-4 New York Rangers, who currently occupy second place in the Metropolitan Division and third in the Eastern Conference. They are currently riding a two-game losing skid, most recently a 5-2 loss at Winnipeg on Friday. The Blueshirts will put Holtby to the test, as they exhibit a strong offense.

Led by Rick Nash’s 96, the Rangers have put a total of 950 shots on goal so far this season, scoring 97 of those attempts (led by Mats Zuccarello’s 14). Although not as potent as Washington‘s, New York‘s power play is also good, as they’ve scored 20 goals (led by Nash’s four) on 92 opportunities.

It goes without saying that a defense spearheaded by 15-8-3 Henrik Lundqvist in net is a good one. Aided by Dan Girardi’s 71 blocks, the Blueshirts have only allowed 82 on 1049 shots. Even when a man down, New York has still been strong, as Lundqvist and co. have killed 83.04% of opposing power plays.

Last year, the Caps and Rangers met in the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. The Blueshirts won that series in seven games, and if that is indicative of how tonight’s game will go, we should be in for a good one. Expect the Caps to pull off the road upset.

December 20, 2015
December 16 – Day 70 – National Capitals

Yesterday’s Game of the Day between the Edmonton Oilers and New York Rangers was a good one, as the 4-2 score was not indicative of the competitive play.

The Blueshirts opened the scoring by notching the only tally of the first period, a snap shot at the 5:04 mark from Second Star of the Game Mats Zuccarello, assisted by Keith Yandle and First Star Rick Nash.

Almost exactly 20 game minutes later, Taylor Hall fired a wrister after being assisted by Leon Draisaitl and Teddy Purcell to tie the game for Edmonton. The draw lasted only 2:42 before Third Star Dylan McIlrath scored his first goal of the season, assisted by Yandle and Dominic Moore to give the Rangers a 2-1 lead. Jordan Eberle scored a wrister to knot the game again, assisted by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, but the Oilers could not maintain the tie into the third period, as Nash scored on a power play with only 39 seconds remaining, assisted by Zuccarello and Derick Brassard, giving the Blueshirts a 3-2 lead that they would not yield.

Jesper Fast tacked on an empty netter late in third period, assisted by Dominic Moore and Viktor Stalberg to set the score at the 4-2 final.

Henrik Lundqvist (15-6-3) earned the win by saving 18 of 20 (90%), while Anders Nilsson’s record falls to 10-8-1 after saving only 17 of 20 (85%).

The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 23-10-5, favoring the home side by 19 points.

After a busy Tuesday, Wednesday has only two games on the schedule. The evening gets started at 7 p.m. eastern when Ottawa visits Washington (TVAS/SN), and is followed an hour later by Pittsburgh at Boston (NBCSN).

Neither of today’s matchups are divisional rivalries, but the Ottawa–Washington game is between two teams currently qualifying for the playoffs. That game will be the one to focus on today.

The 16-10-5 Ottawa Senators currently sit in third place in the Atlantic Division and sixth place in the Western Conference. To establish this position, they’ve needed to employ a strong offense behind Mike Hoffman to cover their defensive deficiencies.

That offense has fired the puck 866 times so far this season (led by Hoffman’s 86) for a total of 94 goals (led by Hoffman’s 17), connecting on 10.9% of attempts. An especially strong point of the offense has been their efforts on the power play, scoring 19 goals (led by Hoffman’s four tallies) on 95 attempts, giving them a 20% success rate.

The offensive power has been necessary to cover up for issues on the other end of the ice. Four different goalies have taken their place between the pipes, but 14-9-3 Craig Anderson has taken the lion’s share of the minutes (1,543 of 1,881 available minutes, or 82%). Anderson and co. have saved 91.8% of 1049 shots for 90 goals against, but within that stat the problem is found, as the save percentage is actually better than the league average. Although Erik Karlsson has a team-leading 60 blocks, the defense is giving up far too many shots. If Ottawa wants to be a real threat to the Cup this season, they will need to bolster the blue line.

The 21-6-2 Washington Capitals were featured in Monday’s Game of the Day. You can read more about them here. If you don’t want to read the summary, just know that Washington is pretty good.

Some players to watch in tonight’s game include Ottawa‘s Anderson (14 wins [tied for fifth in the league] and two shutouts [tied for seventh in the league]), Hoffman (17 goals [fourth in the league] and 30 points [tied for ninth in the league]), Karlsson (27 assists [tied for league lead] and 34 points [fifth in the league]) and Mark Stone (21 assists [tied for fifth in the league]) & Washington‘s Braden Holtby (19 wins [leads the league], 1.87 GAA [leads the league] and .933 save percentage [tied for fourth in the league]), Evgeny Kuznetsov (+15 [tied for second in the league]) and Alex Ovechkin (+13 [tied for seventh in the league]).

The major hole in this game is represented by Ottawa‘s defense. Although the offense may be able to cover this hole most nights, Washington‘s defense will not let that happen. Expect the Caps to hold home ice for the win.

December 16, 2015
December 14 – Day 68 – Trial by Fire

Yesterday’s Game of the Day was a Metropolitan beat-down, as the New York Islanders absolutely took it to the New Jersey Devils, winning on a four-goal shutout.

The game-winning goal belongs to First Star of the Game Marek Zidlicky, scored at the 7:43 mark of the opening period after being assisted by Mikhail Grabovski and Josh Bailey. Third Star John Tavares notched the lone insurance goal of the first period at the 11:53 mark after being assisted by Kyle Okposo and Brock Nelson.

It was another two-goal period for the Isles in the second, with Matt Martin notching the first one at the 7:28 mark, with assists going to Casey Cizikas and Calvin de Haan. Zidlicky snuck his second goal of the game, and the final tally of the night, at the 19:17 mark, with assists belonging to Thomas Hickey and Steve Bernier. The 4-0 lead held not only into the second intermission, but to the final horn.

Second Star Thomas Greiss (9-3-2) earned the shutout victory on 27 shots faced, while Cory Schneider (13-8-4) earns the loss after saving only 15 of 18 (83.3%). He was pulled from the game after 27:28 (the third goal of the game), with Keith Kinkaid finishing up the remaining 32:32, saving 11 of 12 (91.7%).

Tomorrow’s schedule consists of five games, and the action gets started at 7 p.m. eastern when three of them drop the opening puck (Edmonton at Boston [TVAS], Washington at Pittsburgh [NHLN] and Tampa Bay at Columbus), with the other two following only half an hour later (Los Angeles at Ottawa [RDS] and Buffalo at Detroit [Bell TV]).

Two of tonight’s games are between divisional rivals (Washington at Pittsburgh and Buffalo at Detroit), and only one is between two teams currently qualifying for the playoffs (Los Angeles at Ottawa). Then again, this information really doesn’t matter that much, as you probably knew which matchup is our Game of the Day today.

When Pittsburgh fired Head Coach Mike Johnston Saturday morning, you saw this one coming. Johnston led the club to a 15-10-3 record so far this season (58-37-15 during his 110-game tenure), which has the Pens in fifth place in the division and ninth in the conference.

Even though Jim Rutherford went out and traded for Phil Kessel (nine goals [second-most on team]) as well as ascertained a few other offensive skaters, Johnston’s Penguins simply did not produce, which should take most of the blame for him being relieved of his duties. So far this season, they’ve only scored 66 goals (led by Evgeni Malkin’s 13), but even more distressing is the 858 shots (led by Kessel’s 90) they’ve put on goal (trails the league average by 13). While the number isn’t terribly under the league average, their 7.7% shot percentage speaks volumes, as it trails the league average by 1.2%.

Probably the biggest issue of Pittsburgh‘s game has been the power play. They’ve scored only 15 goals (led by Malkin’s six) on 96 opportunities, for a 15.63% success rate that trails the league average by 3.49%. One saving grace about the Pens‘ man-advantage has been that they have yet to give up a shorty all season.

What has kept Pittsburgh in the midst of the playoff hunt this season has been Marc-Andre Fleury (13-9-2) and the defense. They’ve only given up 65 goals so far this season, a number that makes most teams jealous. Not only have Fleury and co. saved 92.9% of the 887 shots they’ve faced this season, but they’ve also had Ian Cole’s team-leading 60 blocks to keep even more from reaching the net.

Even when a man-down, the Pens have still done well in keeping the opposition off the board. They’ve only given up 15 power play goals on 95 attempts, saving a strong 84.21% of attempts.

Johnston’s replacement was found within the organization, albeit four hours up the road in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. Mike Sullivan had only been the head coach of the Baby Pens for this season, but he had led his AHL squad to a 19-5-0 record (best winning percentage in the league) and the top of the Atlantic Division. In addition to playing 12 years of professional hockey (including part or all of 11 seasons in the NHL) he was head coach of the Boston Bruins for two seasons from 2003-’06 (04-’05 was the lockout) where he amassed a total record of 70-56-15-23. He also coached the Vancouver Canucks for six games during the ’13-’14 season when John Tortorella was suspended, earning a 2-4-0 record.

Another indicator that management is expecting more goals scored is Wilkes-Barre/Scranton‘s offensive strength. The Baby Penguins have scored 89 goals so far this season, a total that is second in the conference and third in the league, while being backed by the second-best defense and goaltending in the league. Sullivan will be expected to enact that same game plan with the senior squad, especially since the defense is already present.

It will be trial by fire for Sullivan’s first game though, as he is going up against the division-leading and second-best in conference 20-6-2 Washington Capitals. Washington plays a tough game on both ends of the ice, but their defense and goaltending has been their strongest asset this season and will be a good test for Sullivan’s new system.

So far this season, Washington has given up only 62 goals, thanks in part to Karl Alzner’s 62 blocks and Braden Holtby (18-4-1) and co.’s incredible play. Of the 766 shots that have made their way to the net (102 fewer than the league average, but on two-less games), Holtby and Philipp Grubauer have saved 92.4%. Even when down a man, the Caps have still kept the opposition off the board 83.54% of the time, giving up only 13 tallies.

The offense has been no joke either, as they’ve put 854 shots (led by Alex Ovechkin’s 138) on goal so far this season for 83 tallies (9.7%), led by Ovechkin’s 14. Probably the scariest facet of Washington‘s game is the power play, as they’ve scored on 21 of 90 opportunities (23.33%), led by Ovechkin’s four.

Some players to watch in tonight’s game include Pittsburgh‘s Fleury (13 wins [tied for fifth in the league], two shutouts [tied for seventh in the league] and .927 save percentage [eighth in the league]) and Washington‘s Holtby (18 wins [leads the league], 1.9 GAA [leads the league] and .93 save percentage [tied for sixth in the league]), Evgeny Kuznetsov (+15 [tied for second in the league]) and Ovechkin (14 goals [tied for seventh in the league]).

Based on the stats alone, Pittsburgh‘s weak offense should not be able to keep up with Washington‘s, but it is always hard to tell how a team will react to a new coach. Unlike the first coaching change of the year in Columbus (which, interestingly, involved the coach he replaced in Vancouver), I think this one was a good move by management that will hopefully yield positive results for an organization that intends to be a part of the playoff discussion.

December 14, 2015
October 28 – Day 22 – More capitals than you think…

Yesterday’s Game of the Day, contested between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the St. Louis Blues, was our second straight shutout victory for the home squad, as the Notes beat the Bolts 2-0.

Scott Gomez’ goal, assisted by Colton Parayko and Troy Brouwer at the 15:59 mark of the first period, was his first with St. Louis and the eventual game-winner. The lone insurance goal was an empty netter scored by Brouwer, assisted by Alex Pietrangelo, with only 41 seconds remaining in the game.

First star of the game Jake Allen earned the win by stopping all 26 Lightning shots, while Ben Bishop lost his yearly homecoming game by allowing only one goal on 23 shots (95.7%).

The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 13-5-3, still favoring the home squad by 11 points.

After a busy 10 game schedule yesterday, the writers at Down the Frozen River invite you to sit back, crack open your beverage of choice and relax this evening, as there are only three games on the schedule tonight. Instead of frantically checking your phone every five minutes to check scores, you can chill out, knowing that all three games will be on national TV in their home nation. The evening begins at 7:30 p.m. eastern when the Calgary Flames visit the Canadian capital to take on the Senators (TVAS, SN1). The capital theme continues half an hour later, when Pittsburgh visits the American capital to play division rival Washington (NBCSN). Finally, at 10:30 p.m. eastern, the squad representing the capital of Tennessee, the Nashville Predators, will visit the county seat of Santa Clara County (So, like, the capital of Santa Clara County? YES, THE CAPITAL OF SANTA CLARA COUNTY!) to play the San Jose Sharks (NBCSN).

Of these three, one is a divisional rivalry (Pittsburgh at Washington), and none that features two teams that are currently qualifying for the playoffs (San Jose fell out of position last night with Vancouver‘s win over Montréal). Therefore, I expect the Pittsburgh–Washington game to be the best game of the night.

The rivalry between these two squads is well documented. In fact, this season is the tenth anniversary of the rebirth of the rivalry, as both teams’ captains began playing for their respective teams during the 2005-’06 season. In their history, the Penguins own the all-time series at 131-110-16 but, as should be expected, the Capitals own a better record when playing in front of their home crowd (63-58-9).

We first take a look at the visiting team. While offense is usually the first thing to come to mind when thinking of a squad with both Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel and Evgeni Malkin, the Penguins have strongly relied on their defense (especially Ian Cole, who has 25 blocks so far) and Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury to achieve their 4-4-0 record. The only goalie to put on the pads for Pittsburgh so far this season, he’s given up 16 goals so far this season, six under the league average. Even when a man or more down, the Penguins have still found a way to keep the opposition off the board, as they’ve only given up four power play goals (one less than the league average) to maintain an 84.62% penalty kill rate, exceeding the league average of 81.43%. Fleury’s .932 save percentage also exceeds the league average by 1.7%.

In comparison to both their defense and Penguins teams in the past, the offense has been fairly lackluster. The club has only tickled the twine 13 times, nine goals below the league average. Part of the problem has been the poor results on the power play. In 28 attempts, the Penguins have only scored two goals (three below average), for a 7.14% power play. What’s most frustrating for the team is their lack of offensive success hasn’t entirely been their fault. Pittsburgh has shot the puck 261 times in eight games, 16 more times than the league average, but has only scored on 5% of their shots.

Turning our attention to the home side, we find a 6-1-0 Capitals side that we at Down the Frozen River think has the potential to represent the Eastern Conference in this year’s Stanley Cup Finals. Washington is a well rounded team that is a threat to score on one end of the ice, and has full capabilities to stop the opposition on the other end.

Beginning with the offense, the Capitals have scored 29 tallies so far this season, seven goals above league average (Ovi leads the way with five goals this season). Seven of those goals have been on the power play. What’s most remarkable is they’ve had extra-man success (two more goals than league average) on significantly fewer opportunities (six less, to be exact). What the kids that can do quick math have figured out before I tell you is that Washington‘s power play percentage is much better than the rest of the NHL’s. We’re talking so good, that the Caps score on almost a third of their man-advantages (31.82%, to be exact). The league averages only 18.57%… for sake of argument, we can almost claim that Washington scores two power play goals for every one scored by the average hockey team. Or, in other words, the Penguins would be very wise to not commit any penalties.

The biggest fallback of this offense? They don’t put as many shots on goal. They’ve only fired 207 pucks so far this season, 38 under the league average. But, they score seemingly all the time, which has given them a 14% shot percentage, 5% over the league average.

So, if the offense is so good, opposing teams should just get into a barn-burner with the Caps and hope for the best, right? Bad idea, mostly because Washington doesn’t share very well: the Caps are the only ones allowed to score. In addition to their successful offense, the Capitals have only given up 18 goals this season, which is four under the league average. Specifically on the penalty kill, the Caps have given up one fewer goal (four) than the league average, and on fewer opportunities too. Their 83.33% penalty kill rate exceeds the league average by 1.9%. And its not just Goaltender Braden Holtby, either. The defense has also held their opposition to only 167 shots, 76 under the league average. Karl Alzner has led the charge in blocks, with 18 to his credit.

Tonight was also supposed to be the return of RW Eric Fehr to the Verizon Center, but he is still in the final stages of recovery from elbow surgery and does not expect to return until this weekend. He played nine of his 10 seasons with the Caps (spent the 2011-’12 season in Winnipeg), and signed as a free agent with the Pens this offseason. His return will be postponed to January 24. In replacement, we get to celebrate Kris Letang’s 500th game of his career.

Last season, the Caps won the season series 3-1-0 after shutting out the Penguins twice. The Pens‘ lone win was a 4-3 thriller in Washington, with Chris Kunitz scoring the winning goal.

Some players to watch in this one include Pittsburgh‘s Fleury (one shutout [tied for sixth in the league] and four wins [tied for eighth in the league]) and Washington‘s John Carlson (eight assists [tied for seventh in the league]), Holtby (five wins [tied for second in the league]) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (11 points [tied for fifth in the league] and eight assists [tied for seventh in the league]).

Although the Penguins may have won their last game in this arena, I fully expect Washington to beat the Penguins easily, as the Pittsburgh offense will not be able to keep up with Ovechkin and the Capitals.

October 28, 2015