Down the Frozen River

Tag: Kessel

  • October 29 – Day 23 – Back to his Beginnings

    I don’t know about you, but yesterday’s Game of the Day did not end as I expected, as the Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Washington Capitals 3-1 at the Verizon Center.  Phil Kessel, assisted by Evgeni Malkin and David Perron, notched the game winner at the 3:49 mark of the third period.

    Washington waited to open the scoring until the 1:28 mark of the final period.  Karl Alzner assisted Evgeny Kuznetsov to his fourth goal of the season to give the Caps a one-goal lead, but it was short lived – only 24 seconds, in fact, as Nick Bonino and Olli Maatta assisted Beau Bennett to the game-tying goal.  Bonino also scored an empty netter with under two minutes remaining in the game.

    Marc-Andre Fleury earned his fifth win of the season by stopping 33 of 34 shots (97.1%) to set his record at 5-4-0, while Braden Holtby takes the loss, his second of the season, after allowing two of 24 shots faced (91.7%).

    The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 13-6-3, favoring the home team by nine points.

    Tonight’s schedule is another full one, with a total of eight games on the night.  The action gets started at 7 p.m. eastern when three games get started (Carolina at the New York Islanders, New Jersey at Philadelphia and Buffalo at Pittsburgh [Bell TV]), followed half an hour later by Colorado at Tampa Bay.  Beginning at 8 p.m. eastern are two games (Anaheim at St. Louis and Chicago at Winnipeg), followed half an hour later by Vancouver at Dallas.  Finally, the night begins to see its end at 9 p.m. eastern when Montréal visits Edmonton (SN, SN360, RDS).

    Of tonight’s matchups, three are divisional rivalries (Carolina at the Isles, New Jersey at Philadelphia and Chicago at Winnipeg) and only one game featuring two teams currently in playoff position (Vancouver at Dallas).

    Those games being noted, there is another matchup that strikes my fancy, as it is the first return of an ex-coach to play against his ex-team.  That man is none other than Dan Bylsma, who is featured in the Buffalo–Pittsburgh matchup.

    Buffalo Sabres LogoPittsburgh Penguins Logo

     

     

     

     

     

     

    I know, we watched Pittsburgh yesterday, but this is a significant return.  Although under slightly bizarre circumstances, Bylsma is the last coach to lead the Pens to the Stanley Cup.  Plus, it’s Game of the Day’s first opportunity to see Jack Eichel in action, so I shouldn’t hear any complainers.

    Coach Bylsma returns to the home arena of the team he led to the 2009 Stanley Cup with only 25 regular season games coached after replacing Michel Therrien mid-season.  Winner of the 2010-’11 Jack Adams Award, Bylsma is the winningest coach in team history (252 wins, 20 more than Eddie Johnston), as well as the coach with the highest win percentage (67%).

    As we all know, the reason for Bylsma’s departure from the Triangle was not his regular season success, but his post-season letdowns.  Under his direction, the Penguins improved every regular season until the 2013-’14 season, beginning in his first full season with a .616 point percentage that grew to .75 by the time of his release.  However, his postseason win-loss percentage is a different story.  During his tenure the team won the Cup, then fell in the conference semifinals, followed by falling in the conference quarterfinals twice in a row, improving to the conference finals, then finally the semifinals.  While some teams would love to make the playoffs on a consistent basis and make it past the first round most of the time, the Pittsburgh teams he coached were built to win, and only one cup did not satisfy ownership.

    The Buffalo Sabres are currently 3-6-0 coming off a 4-3 win over Philadelphia on Tuesday.  While folks in Upstate New York may be excited to usher in the Eichel Era, there have been some growing pains so far this season.  The team has scored four goals less and given up five over the league average.  The offensive production may be more due to bad luck though, as the Sabres have put 283 shots on goal so far this season, 21 over the league average, but only 6.7% of those attempts are finding the back of the net.

    Probably the most exciting part about this Sabres team is their power play.  The special teams have accounted for nine goals so far this season (three over the league average) on 36 opportunities, giving them a 25% success rate that exceeds the league average by 6.39%.

    Sadly, this positive comes with its own negative, as the penalty kill is vastly inferior to the rest of the NHL.  Buffalo has given up seven power play goals so far on only 23 opportunities (seven under the league average), giving them an atrocious penalty kill percentage of 69.57%, 11.82% under the league average.  Fortunately for the Sabres, they have been limiting penalties to a minimum to avoid man-down situations as much as possible, but penalties do happen and this statistic may be a monkey that hangs on the squad’s back for the entire season.

    As explained yesterday, Bylsma’s old team is leaning heavily on Fleury and the defense, and there has been no indication that Jeff Zatkoff will see his first playing time tonight, although I don’t think anyone would be surprised if he did, given that Fleury has played every minute of all nine games this season.

    Some players to watch in this one include Buffalo‘s Jake McCabe (two even strength goals [leads team] and 40% shot percentage [leads team]), Ryan O’Reilly (eight points [leads team], five assists [leads team], four power play assists [leads team]) & Sam Reinhart (+2 Corsi rating [leads team] and three even-strength assists [leads team]) and Pittsburgh‘s Malkin (seven points [leads team], four assists [leads team], three even-strength assists [leads team], two game-winners [leads team] and 13.6% shot percentage [leads team]) and, should he play, Fleury (five wins [tied for third in league], one shutout [tied for sixth in the league], 1.9 GAA [eighth in the league] and .936 save percentage [ninth in the league]).

    Conventional wisdom points to the Penguins being favored in this one, but I think Pittsburgh‘s poor power play provides the Sabres a way to keep this one closer than expected.

  • October 28 – Day 22 – More capitals than you think…

    Yesterday’s Game of the Day, contested between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the St. Louis Blues, was our second straight shutout victory for the home squad, as the Notes beat the Bolts 2-0.

    Scott Gomez’ goal, assisted by Colton Parayko and Troy Brouwer at the 15:59 mark of the first period, was his first with St. Louis and the eventual game-winner.  The lone insurance goal was an empty netter scored by Brouwer, assisted by Alex Pietrangelo, with only 41 seconds remaining in the game.

    First star of the game Jake Allen earned the win by stopping all 26 Lightning shots, while Ben Bishop lost his yearly homecoming game by allowing only one goal on 23 shots (95.7%).

    The DtFR Game of the Day series now stands at 13-5-3, still favoring the home squad by 11 points.

    After a busy 10 game schedule yesterday, the writers at Down the Frozen River invite you to sit back, crack open your beverage of choice and relax this evening, as there are only three games on the schedule tonight.  Instead of frantically checking your phone every five minutes to check scores, you can chill out, knowing that all three games will be on national TV in their home nation.  The evening begins at 7:30 p.m. eastern when the Calgary Flames visit the Canadian capital to take on the Senators (TVAS, SN1).  The capital theme continues half an hour later, when Pittsburgh visits the American capital to play division rival Washington (NBCSN).  Finally, at 10:30 p.m. eastern, the squad representing the capital of Tennessee, the Nashville Predators, will visit the county seat of Santa Clara County (So, like, the capital of Santa Clara County?  YES, THE CAPITAL OF SANTA CLARA COUNTY!) to play the San Jose Sharks (NBCSN).

    Of these three, one is a divisional rivalry (Pittsburgh at Washington), and none that features two teams that are currently qualifying for the playoffs (San Jose fell out of position last night with Vancouver‘s win over Montréal).  Therefore, I expect the Pittsburgh–Washington game to be the best game of the night.

    Pittsburgh Penguins LogoWashington Capitals Logo

     

     

     

     

     

    The rivalry between these two squads is well documented.  In fact, this season is the tenth anniversary of the rebirth of the rivalry, as both teams’ captains began playing for their respective teams during the 2005-’06 season.  In their history, the Penguins own the all-time series at 131-110-16 but, as should be expected, the Capitals own a better record when playing in front of their home crowd (63-58-9).

    We first take a look at the visiting team.  While offense is usually the first thing to come to mind when thinking of a squad with both Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel and Evgeni Malkin, the Penguins have strongly relied on their defense (especially Ian Cole, who has 25 blocks so far) and Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury to achieve their 4-4-0 record.  The only goalie to put on the pads for Pittsburgh so far this season, he’s given up 16 goals so far this season, six under the league average.  Even when a man or more down, the Penguins have still found a way to keep the opposition off the board, as they’ve only given up four power play goals (one less than the league average) to maintain an 84.62% penalty kill rate, exceeding the league average of 81.43%.  Fleury’s .932 save percentage also exceeds the league average by 1.7%.

    In comparison to both their defense and Penguins teams in the past, the offense has been fairly lackluster.  The club has only tickled the twine 13 times, nine goals below the league average.  Part of the problem has been the poor results on the power play.  In 28 attempts, the Penguins have only scored two goals (three below average), for a 7.14% power play.  What’s most frustrating for the team is their lack of offensive success hasn’t entirely been their fault.  Pittsburgh has shot the puck 261 times in eight games, 16 more times than the league average, but has only scored on 5% of their shots.

    Turning our attention to the home side, we find a 6-1-0 Capitals side that we at Down the Frozen River think has the potential to represent the Eastern Conference in this year’s Stanley Cup Finals.  Washington is a well rounded team that is a threat to score on one end of the ice, and has full capabilities to stop the opposition on the other end.

    Beginning with the offense, the Capitals have scored 29 tallies so far this season, seven goals above league average (Ovi leads the way with five goals this season).  Seven of those goals have been on the power play.  What’s most remarkable is they’ve had extra-man success (two more goals than league average) on significantly fewer opportunities (six less, to be exact).  What the kids that can do quick math have figured out before I tell you is that Washington‘s power play percentage is much better than the rest of the NHL’s.  We’re talking so good, that the Caps score on almost a third of their man-advantages (31.82%, to be exact).  The league averages only 18.57%… for sake of argument, we can almost claim that Washington scores two power play goals for every one scored by the average hockey team.  Or, in other words, the Penguins would be very wise to not commit any penalties.

    The biggest fallback of this offense?  They don’t put as many shots on goal.  They’ve only fired 207 pucks so far this season, 38 under the league average.  But, they score seemingly all the time, which has given them a 14% shot percentage, 5% over the league average.

    So, if the offense is so good, opposing teams should just get into a barn-burner with the Caps and hope for the best, right?  Bad idea, mostly because Washington doesn’t share very well: the Caps are the only ones allowed to score.  In addition to their successful offense, the Capitals have only given up 18 goals this season, which is four under the league average.  Specifically on the penalty kill, the Caps have given up one fewer goal (four) than the league average, and on fewer opportunities too. Their 83.33% penalty kill rate exceeds the league average by 1.9%.  And its not just Goaltender Braden Holtby, either.  The defense has also held their opposition to only 167 shots, 76 under the league average.  Karl Alzner has led the charge in blocks, with 18 to his credit.

    Tonight was also supposed to be the return of RW Eric Fehr to the Verizon Center, but he is still in the final stages of recovery from elbow surgery and does not expect to return until this weekend.  He played nine of his 10 seasons with the Caps (spent the 2011-’12 season in Winnipeg), and signed as a free agent with the Pens this offseason.  His return will be postponed to January 24.  In replacement, we get to celebrate Kris Letang’s 500th game of his career.

    Last season, the Caps won the season series 3-1-0 after shutting out the Penguins twice.  The Pens‘ lone win was a 4-3 thriller in Washington, with Chris Kunitz scoring the winning goal.

    Some players to watch in this one include Pittsburgh‘s Fleury (one shutout [tied for sixth in the league] and four wins [tied for eighth in the league]) and Washington‘s John Carlson (eight assists [tied for seventh in the league]), Holtby (five wins [tied for second in the league]) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (11 points [tied for fifth in the league] and eight assists [tied for seventh in the league]).

    Although the Penguins may have won their last game in this arena, I fully expect Washington to beat the Penguins easily, as the Pittsburgh offense will not be able to keep up with Ovechkin and the Capitals.