Second Round predictions, Minnesota needs a new GM, Calgary’s got a new coach, award finalist reactions, a Game 7 breakdown between Boston and Toronto, and where do the Leafs go from here? All that and more as Nick and Connor discuss on the latest DTFR Podcast.
Most of the focus in analyzing the playoff performance seems to focus on Sergei Bobrovsky. This is understandable given Bobrovsky’s history of giving up three or more goals in playoff games, but it ignores another reason that the Jackets may be struggling against the Capitals as their series has progressed and that is player usage.
The Jackets played 82 games prior to the playoffs and that data tells us a lot about which players were making positive contributions to the team and which players weren’t. Yet, John Tortorella’s player usage in this series suggests that some old school thoughts about playoff hockey may be leading to the Jackets deploying players in a sub-optimal manner. In a series defined by close games and, more importantly, overtime games, choices in player deployment can be the difference between being up 3-2 and being down 3-2.
Let’s take the case of Oliver Bjorkstrand. Bjorkstrand finished the season with a 5-on-5 CF% of 51.64 percent and was fifth on the team with 40 points. Furthermore, Bjorkstrand had become a very solid player at both ends at the ice, something that Tortorella had him focused on at the start of the season. Yet, through five games of this series, the only players with less time-on-ice than Bjorkstrand were Alexander Wennberg (who has only played in two games due to injury), Mark Letestu, and Sonny Milano (a healthy scratch for Game 5). After scoring a goal in Game 5, Torts finally started playing Bjorkstrand more in the rest of the game and the result was a number of solid shifts where the puck was held in the Caps zone–something the Jackets have struggled with in this series. Bjorkstrand’s line had two of the best opportunities in the overtime period of Game 5.
One of the players getting less ice time than Bjorkstrand is Milano, who was a healthy scratch for Game 5, but played little to no minutes in the prior four games. Like Bjorkstrand, Milano had a positive 5-on-5 CF% of 50.91 percent. He put up 14 goals in only 55 games and his return to the lineup was one of the things that helped the Jackets down the stretch. In fact, Milano was paired with Bjorkstrand on a line centered by Nick Foligno that provided a scoring threat when the top line wasn’t on the ice during a part of March. That line was scuttled by Foligno’s injury.
So, who has been getting ice time over Milano and Bjorkstrand? Thomas Vanek, for one. While Vanek had positive possession numbers in 19 games for the Jackets, his possession numbers in Vancouver were less than stellar with a 45.01 percent 5-on-5 CF%. Seven goals and eight assists in 19 games was also probably not a sustainable pace for the 34 year-old Vanek.
You have to wonder how much of the decision to play Vanek more than Bjorkstrand and Milano comes down to an antiquated view of “playoff hockey.” Neither Milano nor Bjorkstrand are known for a gritty or grinding style. They aren’t veterans. And, while Bjorkstrand is solid in his own end, Milano is still a work-in-progress in this respect. However, none of this changes the fact that the team is better off with them in the lineup and playing. The fact is that Milano is a dangerous player in both good ways and bad and the good still outweighs the bad based on what the advanced stats tell us. Given Vanek’s own unforced-errors in Game 4, it hardly seems like playing him more has solved anything and it has, arguably, taken a more skilled player off the ice and certainly taken a quicker skater off the ice.
With Wennberg back in the lineup, one of Brandon Dubinsky or Letestu should be out of the lineup to make room for Milano. The sole reason this apparently hasn’t happened would seem to be face-offs. Wennberg is clearly being sheltered from this part of his duties, while Boone Jenner is actually being put in for spot face-off duty.
I’m not sure this is good enough justification to keep them both in. Jenner has been strong enough in the face-off dot, as has Foligno. Letestu been so-so this series and Dubinsky has been strong, though Dubinsky has taken three penalties while Letestu has taken none. Flip a coin, but one of these two should sit instead of dividing minutes and taking a roster spot that could be held by a better player. If you want to see how smart coaches can make dumb decisions about players based on overemphasizing face-offs, take a look at Jay Beagle‘s possession stats sometime. Woof.
That’s another thing, here. The Caps have dog crap for depth. They had six forwards who played regularly who finished the season with a 5-on-5 CF% above 50 percent. One of them–Burakovsky–is out for the series. How many regular forwards did Columbus have above that mark? Eight, all of whom who are available to play in this series. That means the Jackets are one line deeper than Washington. Josh Anderson is playing bottom-six minutes for the Jackets. I’ve got no problem with that as long as (1) the right people are getting more minutes than him and (2) the Jackets more evenly divide the minutes.
Why should the minutes be divided more evenly? Because the Caps have dog crap for depth AND these games are going into overtime. The Jackets should be taking more advantage of their depth by spreading minutes more evenly. Keep the legs fresh. This isn’t the old days. Penalties are called regularly in the playoffs now and the old grind and hold game doesn’t work. The team with fresh legs is best prepared to capitalize on mistakes in overtime. You look at the last shift yesterday and the Jackets’ top line was gassed and the Caps took advantage on the cycle. Divide minutes more evenly and the story might end differently. The Jackets can afford to do it because the skill difference between their third and second lines isn’t as pronounced as it is for Washington.
If the Jackets want to take it to Washington tomorrow, John Tortorella needs to face his fears and embrace the fact that speed and skill is what wins games in hockey in 2018, even in the playoffs. Yes, Milano will make mistakes, but so have the guys who have played in place of him. Show faith in your young players. They are the future of this team and they didn’t let you down for the 82 games that preceded this series. Don’t abandon them now because of fear, embrace them as your hope. Depth is your advantage, press your advantage. Divide playing time more equally not just because you expect these games to go to overtime, but because it is to your advantage even over 60 minutes of hockey. Torts needs to think about his own motto in a new way. When it comes to coaching playoff games in 2018, Safe Is Death.
After winning Game 4 at Nationwide Arena 4-1, the Washington Capitals have salvaged losing Games 1 and 2 to reclaim home-ice advantage in their Stanley Cup Playoffs First Round series against the Columbus Blue Jackets.
The first two periods of this game were so exciting, even people with insomnia were falling asleep with ease. Whether that was due to lazy offense by Columbus or incredible defense by Washington (the Blue Jackets managed only 15 shots in opening 40 minutes), the fans at Nationwide Arena had very little to get excited about.
Playing a major role in hampering the Jackets’ offense all night was none other than D Brooks Orpik, who blocked a (t)game-high four shots (D Seth Jones matched him in that effort for Columbus), and Third Star of the Game RW Tom Wilson with his team-leading three hits.
Perhaps Columbus’ best scoring opportunity of either of the first two periods came with 5:37 remaining in the opening frame. LW Artemi Panarin had not one, but two shots from prime real estate right in front of G Braden Holtby‘s crease, but the netminder rejected both offerings to keep his young shutout alive.
However, that’s not so say there wasn’t any offense in those periods, as there were two goals struck – but both those markers belonged to the visiting Capitals. Wilson (First Star F Evgeny Kuznetsov) took credit for the first tally at the 6:16 mark of the first period with a slap shot from the top of the zone, followed by F T.J. Oshie‘s (Second Star W Alex Ovechkin and D John Carlson) power play wrist shot 23:03 later.
Oshie’s play started at the 8:49 mark of the second period when Panarin was caught slashing Kuznetsov. Washington’s resulting man advantage lasted only 30 seconds before its third-ranked postseason power play achieved its goal of setting the score at 2-0. After both Carlson’s and Ovechkin’s offerings were rejected by G Sergei Bobrovsky, Oshie collected the loose puck in the slot and beat the netminder’s glove to the far post.
While Oshie’s tally will go down as the game-winner (the fourth of his playoff career), Ovechkin’s (Kuznetsov and Wilson) wrister 2:49 into the third period proved to be the most important goal of the game. Not only was it the Caps’ purest snipe of the night (Ovi elevated his shot from the right face-off dot over Bobrovsky’s glove to beat him near side), but it also forced Head Coach John Tortorella to pull Bobrovsky for an extra attacker even earlier than he would have liked.
But more on that after we discuss the Blue Jackets’ lone goal of the game: a redirection on RW Josh Anderson‘s clapper from above the left face-off circle by F Boone Jenner. For the first time in 46:22 of action, Jackets fans finally had something to cheer about – and cheer they did. Nationwide Arena sounded like it did Tuesday during Game 3, and Columbus rode that positive energy to firing nine shots on goal in the third period – the most it managed in any frame all game.
Just when it seemed like the party was beginning to die down, Bobrovsky ramped the fans back up with an impressive glove save on Ovechkin at the 8:46 mark after The Great 8 earned a one-on-one matchup against the netminder with a long breakaway.
However, all good things must come to an end, and that end started when Tortorella pulled Bobrovksy with 3:29 remaining in regulation.
If only Ovechkin hadn’t scored scored earlier in the third period and the Jackets were only trailing by one instead of two, maybe the Russian goaltender would have still been in the net when Kuznetsov came up with the puck with 2:19 remaining in the game. However, desperate times call for desperate measures, and that ended up in Kuznetsov’s favor as he buried an unassisted wrister from the blue line to set the score at 4-1 with his third goal of the series.
Holtby earned the victory after saving 23-of-24 shots faced (.958 save percentage), leaving the loss to Bobrovsky, who saved 29-of-32 (.906).
After winning two games in Washington and having the tempting “sweep” word on the mind, the Blue Jackets need to regroup in a similar way the Caps did when the series transitioned to Ohio. If they don’t show a positive effort in Game 5, Columbus may be forced to wait another year to taste a playoff series victory.
Scheduled for a 3 p.m. Eastern matinee puck drop, the aforementioned Game 5 will go down on Saturday, April 21 at Capital One Arena. Viewers should tune their televisions to NBC, NBCSN, SN or TVAS to catch the action.
Entering Tuesday night, no team had ever lost three consecutive Stanley Cup Playoff games in overtime.
So when Game 3 of the Washington Capitals and Columbus Blue Jackets First Round matchup went to overtime Washington sports fans began to sink in their seats imagining the ways the Capitals would surely disappoint them and become the first team to lose three consecutive overtime games in the postseason.
Just kidding, the Capitals won, 3-2, in double overtime.
In his first start for Washington this postseason, Braden Holtby made 33 saves on 35 shots against for a .943 save percentage in double overtime win. Meanwhile, Sergei Bobrovsky made 42 saves on 45 shots against for a .933 SV% in the loss.
Josh Anderson followed up with a minor penalty of his own for interference at 11:55 of the first period, sending the Capitals on their first man advantage of the night. Washington, however, could not get anything going on the power play and the score remained, 0-0.
After 20 minutes of play, Game 3 was tied, 0-0, with the Capitals leading in shots on goal (11-9), blocked shots (8-6) and giveaways (3-2). Washington was 0/1 on the power play in the first frame and Columbus was 0/2 on the man advantage entering the first intermission.
Blue Jackets head coach, John Tortorella, was not pleased as his team bungled a line change and cost themselves a minor penalty for too many men on the ice a couple of minutes into the second period. Luckily for Tortorella, the Capitals were not able to convert on the ensuing power play.
Tom Wilson (1) scored the first goal of the game on a shot from Matt Niskanen that Wilson tipped past Bobrovsky to give Washington a 1-0 lead at 5:52 of the 2nd period. Niskanen (1) and Alex Ovechkin (1) had the assists on the goal in Ovechkin’s 100th career postseason game.
Thanks to Wilson’s goal, Washington has scored first in all three games in the series so far.
The Capitals thought they had a two-goal lead when Brett Connolly capitalized on a loose puck, but thanks to a coach’s challenge from Columbus, the goal was overturned on the basis that Washington had entered the zone offside. Tortorella played his cards and robbed the Caps of some surefire momentum, had they been able to go up by a pair of goals.
Columbus made sure to take advantage of their new-found life as Pierre-Luc Dubois (1) fired a wrist shot past Holtby’s glove side to tie the game, 1-1. Dubois’s goal, his first career Stanley Cup Playoff goal, was assisted by Artemi Panarin (5) and Seth Jones (3) at 11:18 of the 2nd period.
But just as quickly as things can go your way, momentum can swing equally as fast in the other direction and the Blue Jackets learned that the hard way.
Brandon Dubinsky slashed Vrana at 13:08 of the second period, giving Washington a 5-on-4 man advantage until Columbus defender, Ryan Murray, also slashed Vrana about a minute later.
Suddenly, Barry Trotz’s Capitals had a two-man advantage.
John Carlson (1) received a pass from Nicklas Backstrom and put everything into a one-timed slap shot that beat Bobrovsky and made it 2-1 Washington. Backstrom (5) and Ovechkin (2) notched the assists on the goal.
Through 40 minutes of play, the Capitals led 2-1 on the scoreboard and in shots on goal (25-16). Columbus led in blocked shots (12-9) and takeaways (2-1). Washington was 1/4 on the power play and the Blue Jackets power play unit was 0/2.
Despite trailing by a goal entering the third period, the Blue Jackets had the Capitals right where they wanted them— or so they thought.
Panarin (2) tied the game, 2-2, early into the third period on a great give and go with Cam Atkinson. Atkinson (2) had the only assist on the goal at 4:12 of the period and Columbus was in the midst of a huge momentum swing.
Brooks Orpik checked Blue Jackets captain, Nick Foligno, while he was away from the puck and was penalized for interference. Columbus would have another chance on the power play, but their special teams just could not beat Holtby.
With the game tied, 2-2, at the end of regulation, both teams exited the ice to regroup, refocus and refresh for sudden death overtime. Washington was outshooting Columbus, 31-26, after 60 minutes of play and the Blue Jackets were leading in blocked shots (17-12), as well as hits (27-17), despite going 0/3 on the power play up to that point.
For the third straight game in the series— and 22nd time in NHL history that a playoff series has seen three consecutive overtime games— overtime got underway at Nationwide Arena.
Both teams swapped chances early before the Blue Jackets settled into a rhythm of constant offense. Holtby was not wavered.
Not even after Carlson tripped up Zach Werenski late in the first overtime period and forced the Capitals to kill off another penalty— which they did, successfully.
One overtime was not enough, as the score remained tied, 2-2. Washington was still leading in shots on goal (37-33) and Columbus still had an advantage in blocked shots (26-16). After another 18 minute intermission, sudden death overtime resumed.
Nine minutes into the second overtime, Connolly threw the puck on goal where it deflected off of Werenski, then after Lars Eller (1) and into the netting behind Bobrovsky. The Capitals had held off Columbus long enough to attain complete control of the game flow in the second overtime and win the game on a fluke play.
Connolly (1) and Devante Smith-Pelly (1) had the assists on the game-winning goal in the longest postseason game in Blue Jackets franchise history.
Washington finished the night with a 45-35 advantage in shots on goal and 1/4 on the power play, but Columbus led in blocked shots (28-16), hits (36-26) and faceoff win percentage (54-46). None of that mattered as the Capitals had won the game, 3-2. The Blue Jackets inability to convert on a power play left them 0/4 on the night.
With Eller’s game winning goal having sealed the fate of Game 3, Washington had won in double overtime by a score of 3-2. The Blue Jackets take a 2-1 series lead heading into Game 4 at Nationwide Arena on Thursday night. Puck drop is scheduled for a little after 7:30 p.m. ET and fans interested in catching the action in the United States can tune to USA, while fans in Canada can follow along with the action on Sportsnet or TVAS2.
Another overtime game, another Columbus Blue Jackets victory, as they beat the Washington Capitals 5-4 to take a two-tilt advantage going into Game 3.
Even though it was challenged for offsides, First Star of the Game LW Matt Calvert (D Zach Werenski and RW Josh Anderson) scored his fourth career postseason goal – and second-ever playoff overtime winner – to etch his name into Jackets lore on an elevated wrist shot to the near post from along the goal line with 7:38 remaining in the first overtime period.
For a franchise that has never escaped the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, the Blue Jackets are a mighty confident team right now. Going back to the regular season, Columbus has earned a 15-2-2 record in its last 19 games played and is showing no signs of slowing down yet.
That being said, tonight was not a game in which Columbus dominated play. That was made apparent right from the opening puck drop, as F Jay Beagle (D Brooks Orpik and D Jakub Jerabek) scored Washington’s first shot on goal to give the Capitals an early 1-0 advantage. That lead doubled to two 11:14 later when Third Star W Alex Ovechkin (D John Carlson and F T.J. Oshie) scored a power play slap shot from his usual spot in the left face-off circle.
In all, the Capitals out-shot the Blue Jackets 58-30, earning a dominating 28-shot differential that effectively demonstrated just how much action was taking place in G Sergei Bobrovsky‘s end.
However, it was the incredible play of Bobrovsky – who saved 54-of-58 shots faced (.931 save percentage) and earns the honorary DtFR Fourth Star – that not only kept the Jackets alive defensively, but also allowed Columbus to set up an effective counterattack on numerous occasions.
Enter Second Star RW Cam Atkinson with 1:35 remaining in the first period. Having been the Jacket called for the goalie interference penalty that allowed Ovechkin to find the back of the net 4:59 earlier, Atkinson (F Nick Foligno) collected a long stretch pass that crossed both blue lines to beat G Philipp Grubauer‘s left skate to the post with a wrister, pulling Columbus back within a goal.
Even though it came late in the period, Atkinson’s play signified a major turning point in this game. The tally came on the heels of the conclusion of two minutes of four-on-four play (F Pierre-Luc Dubois and F Evgeny Kuznetsov were charged with corresponding slashing minors) that certainly boosted the confidence of Columbus’ defense.
Of course, it didn’t take long for Washington to try to reclaim control after the intermission – and it did with a little help from F Brandon Dubinsky, who accidentally removed Carlson’s helmet with a hi-stick while hitting W Devante Smith-Pelly.
The power play is usually Ovechkin’s (C Nicklas Backstrom and Carlson) time to shine, and he didn’t disappoint by burying another one of his patented clappers at the 4:09 mark of the frame – only eight seconds after Dubinsky took his seat in the sin bin.
However, a two-goal advantage is all the Caps could manage, as the Jackets started to turn the tides in their favor to score three goals before the second intermission.
Getting back to the counterattack point from earlier, Anderson (Werenski and LW Artemi Panarin) was the next beneficiary at the 8:49 mark of the frame. After W Brett Connolly fell down in the corner to Bobrovsky’s right, Anderson pounced on the newly vacated puck to set up a five-on-two rush for Columbus. With such a man-advantage, it’s no surprise that the Jackets were able to pass the puck back-and-forth enough times to confuse Grubauer and pull themselves back within a one-goal differential.
The theme of Game 1 was unwise and untimely penalties, and the Capitals decided to reprise that story line for the remainder of the second frame with two such infractions that resulted in Columbus goals.
First was a RW Tom Wilson roughing penalty against D Seth Jones with 9:24 remaining in the period. Like so often happens in a hockey game – regardless of if it is in the regular season or playoffs – there was a little scrum in front of Grubauer’s net after he froze the puck. However, Wilson took offense to this one in particular and elected to literally jump into the fray and take Jones down to the ice. In turn, Atkinson (Panarin and Jones) made his stay in the penalty box only 37 seconds long after tying the game with a power play wrister.
Old habits die hard, so it only makes sense that Smith-Pelly was sent to the box with 2:20 remaining before the second intermission for a holding the stick penalty. This power play lasted 1:12, but the net result as the same: Werenski (RW Oliver Bjorkstrand and Panarin) scoring another goal for the Blue Jackets, giving them their first lead of the night.
With the rumored hockey gods distributing power play goals like Oprah gives away household appliances, it’s only logical that the Capitals would be handed one last opportunity to level the game when Werenski flipped the puck over the glass for a delay of game infraction with 4:51 remaining in regulation.
Still looking for his first goal of the 2018 postseason, Oshie (Backstrom and Carlson) capitalized on the man-advantage to bury a power play snap shot, tying the game at 4-4 with 3:35 remaining in regulation.
But wait, there’s more! After Oshie scored, F Boone Jenner didn’t like him very much so he tripped him with 1:59 remaining in regulation. That’s right, ladies and gentleman: Jenner decided to give the regular season’s seventh-best power play a shot at winning this game in regulation.
Fortunately for Jenner, he escaped the wrath of Head Coach John Tortorella when Wilson absolutely whiffed on an excellent opportunity, allowing the game to advance into overtime which eventually ended in Columbus’ favor.
Though he didn’t start the game, G Braden Holtby takes the overtime loss after saving seven-of-eight shots faced (.875 save percentage) in the third period and overtime. He replaced Grubauer, who saved 18-of-22 (.818) and earned no decision, following the second intermission.
Of note, W Andre Burakovsky suffered an upper body injury on his first shift of the game, meaning the Capitals played almost the entire contest with only 11 forwards. It remains to be seen what his status for Game 3 and beyond will be for Washington.
After a short flight west to Central Ohio, Game 3 will take place at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, April 17 at Nationwide Arena. American viewers can catch the game on NBCSN, while Canada will be serviced by SN360 and TVAS.
In a contest filled with a combined 29 penalty minutes and four power play goals, the Columbus Blue Jackets earned a 4-3 overtime victory to beat the Washington Capitals at Capital One Arena in Game 1 of their first round matchup.
With the exception of this being the first overtime match of the 2018 postseason, easily the biggest story coming out of this game is RW Josh Anderson‘s boarding penalty against D Michal Kempny with 2:37 remaining in the first period. Kempny struggled to return to his skates after the hit and never returned to the game, earning Anderson a match penalty (and a probable call from the Department of Player Safety if D Drew Doughty‘s one-game suspension is any indication) and the Capitals a five-minute power play.
Having managed only four shots on goal in their first two power plays against Columbus’ (t)fifth-worst regular season penalty kill, Second Star of the Game F Evgeny Kuznetsov took matters into his own hands to score two goals in the first 58 seconds of Anderson’s infraction. Both markers, which set the score at 2-0, were a result of primary apples from C Nicklas Backstrom and hockey assists by Third Star D John Carlson.
However, the man-advantage didn’t just favor the hosts, as the Blue Jackets also earned themselves a pair of power play markers in the third period – including the tally that forced overtime.
RW Tom Wilson was caught charging D Ryan Murray 1:18 into the third period, and W Thomas Vanek (F Pierre-Luc Dubois and First Star LW Artemi Panarin) needed only 13 seconds of the man-advantage to tie the game at 2-2 with a wrist shot (C Alexander Wennberg [F Boone Jenner and Vanek] got the Jackets on the board with a second period even-strength goal).
Even though Washington regained a one-goal lead at the 5:12 mark when W Devante Smith-Pelly (LW Jakub Vrana and Carlson) scored a wrister, another Capitals penalty – this one an W Andre Burakovsky tripping infraction against D Seth Jones – proved to really send the hosts off the rails.
Burakovsky was sent to the sin bin with 5:05 remaining in regulation with a two-minute sentence, but Jones (Panarin and RW Cam Atkinson) – the very man he tripped – found it in him to post his bail after serving only 39 seconds of confinement by scoring a wrister.
Forgiveness is a fickle thing in the NHL, isn’t it?
Speaking of forgiveness, the Capitals will be begging for it from Head Coach Barry Trotz before too long considering how easily Panarin (D Ian Cole and Dubois) was able to get into position to rip his overtime wrister over G Philipp Grubauer‘s left shoulder.
Upon receiving Cole’s falling pass from Columbus’ zone, Panarin sped along the left boards – dodging D Dmitry Orlov in the process – to end up on Grubauer’s front porch. Instead of being patient and attempting to drag the play across the crease, Panarin elected to elevate his wrister from the slot to beat the netminder to the far post.
G Sergei Bobrovsky earned the victory after saving 27-of-30 shots faced (.9 save percentage), leaving the overtime loss to Grubauer, who saved 23-of-27 (.852).
With the obvious goal of limiting penalties in Game 2, the energy levels of both teams – specifically Columbus’ offense and Washington’s defense – will be of much interest. Playing almost the entire game short a skater can be extremely taxing, and everyone involved will surely be grateful for the extra day off before returning to Capital One Arena.
Speaking of Game 2, it’s scheduled for Sunday, April 15 at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. For those that can’t make it to Capital One Arena, the tilt will be broadcast on NBCSN, SN360 and TVAS2.
This has definitely not been the season that Jackets fans had hoped for in September or even the season it seemed like it would be in late October. Sitting outside of a playoff spot with a week to go before the trade deadline is less than ideal. With the Devils now seven points ahead of the Jackets with 23 games left, the only spot left for them in the playoffs may be the eighth seed and a first round matchup against Tampa Bay, a team they have struggled mightily against this year.
Even if they went on a tear and somehow got the sixth or seventh seed, they would likely find themselves playing the Penguins or Capitals in round one, two other teams they have not played particularly well against. The loss yesterday to Pittsburgh was not encouraging–a team built around speed looked slow and lethargic compared to the Pens (even more amazing when you consider the Jackets are the younger team) and the Jackets’ Vezina-winning goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky again struggled to solve the Penguins.
Many fans are frustrated. They want results and are tired of waiting. I certainly understand this, but I also think that perspective is needed and last year’s unexpected season probably had us thinking the team was closer than it was just as the prior season’s disastrous performance had us thinking the team was further away that it actually was.
I’m going to take you back in time to April of 2016 at the end of that disastrous season when I wrote the following on another site:
So, a Jackets team that is capable of winning the Cup has those basic ingredients–an elite defenseman, an elite center, solid goaltending and forward depth. The Jackets do not possess all of these things, clearly and you could argue that the 2015-16 Jackets had none of those things. So, what is a reasonable timeline to get to the destination?
I am going to argue that the Jackets are closer than you think, but that the timeframe to get there is longer than you want it to be. I believe this team can compete for a Cup in three years.
Three years. This is year two. Yes, it seems that the team has taken one step forward and one step back since then, but things are still on schedule.
Let’s start by looking at elite defensemen. Zach Werenski and Seth Jones is as good of a pair as any in the NHL. In 2016, this was still a question mark because we hadn’t seen Werenski. This has been solved. Beyond the top pair, there are some issues that will need to be addressed, but this could be resolved through players in the pipeline. Markus Nutivaara has really shown his worth this season. Gabriel Carlsson is still in Cleveland. Vladislav Gavrikov will spend another year in the KHL–shout out to the NHL for deciding not to go to the Olympics! Before he was hobbled with injuries, Ryan Murray was solid. Beyond Jones, the right side is the weakness. Savard has had a horrible year. David Savard will get another chance next year likely paired with Nutivaara or Carlsson as Jack Johnson will not be back. Maybe a new partner will reinvigorate him. If not, one of the lefties will need to take that spot. Either way, keep in mind that Jones and Werenski will play monster minutes in any future playoff run and the bottom pair will play minimal minutes. They just need to get a top-four that works consistently.
Pierre-Luc Dubois has exceeded expectations. His even-strength CF% within 1 is second only to Artemi Panarin for Jackets’ regulars (Zac Dalpe is the statistical anomaly at #1 due to small sample size). His size, speed and willingness to drive to the net could make him a player in the mold of Ryan Getzlaf. He’s the center the franchise has always needed. There may be growing pains, but the potential is there and the work ethic also seems to be there.
Forward depth. Let’s start with the positive. The Jackets have a wealth of options on the right side. Josh Anderson, Cam Atkinson and Oliver Bjorkstrand can all be scoring threats and they do it in their own unique ways. Anderson’s size and speed make him a tough guy to defend. Atkinson also possesses speed, but has more agility and creativity. Bjorkstrand is a sniper who is also become a solid defender despite his size. Meanwhile, Vitaly Abramov has picked up right where he left off last season in the QMJHL. It is unclear if he’ll make the team next year or spend a year in Cleveland, but Abramov has a high upside.
On the left side, Panarin has been everything he was billed to be, but he has also impressed me with his play away from the puck more than I expected. Matt Calvert always gives 100 percent. Other than those two, this has been part of the team’s struggles this season. Before yesterday’s injury, Nick Foligno has not looked as quick as he has when the team is at its best.
But, there is some good news. For one, I don’t think Sonny Milano has been as bad as some would have you believe and I think maybe Torts needs to relax with the kid just a bit and find line mates who can cover for his deficiencies as he works on them. This team was at its best this year when Milano was in the lineup. The Jackets either need to give Milano another chance at second line left wing or they need to find someone else to fill that role so that Foligno can slot in on the third line.
The Jackets have center depth, it just seems that, outside of Dubois, every center is slotted about 1 spot above where they should be. Alexander Wennberg‘s 2016-17 performance was inflated by unsustainable power play production. Once Wennberg stopped producing on power play (January of last year), his overall performance trailed off and frankly, it hasn’t rebounded. I’ll probably write about this at more length, but despite what you may have read elsewhere, his struggles are real. The Jackets options are (1) upgrade Wennberg or (2) fix the problem on the second line left wing and hope that improves Wennberg’s production. Given that Wennberg is never going to produce his own goals and the Jackets’ competition has Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby, the first route may be the better route, but it is also the more expensive route.
The other issue may be Brandon Dubinsky. No, I’m not all that concerned that he has “career-threatening issues” as some have reported. I’m more concerned that the reporting has created a rift and lead him to want out. Stan Fischler suggested this on a recent broadcast. Trying to move Dubinsky would be a real challenge. Beyond that, Dubi playing on the third (or fourth) line is exactly the sort of depth we need. The team may need to rebuild this relationship and hopefully certain journalists can avoid fanning the flames further.
In the pipeline and under the radar is Kevin Stenlund, who has been playing in Europe. Stenlund could challenge Lukas Sedlak next year for a roster spot or play a season in Cleveland with Abramov, which wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for both players.
While it has been a disappointing season in Cleveland as well, there are still some guys there who could provide the Jackets some needed depth. Paul Bittner, Calvin Thurkauf and Tyler Motte are still young and could be nice additions to the bottom six.
The drags on the Jackets speed game and possession statistics may soon be moved. Johnson has reportedly demanded a trade, and I’d like to personally thank him for that. If reports are true that he could yield a first round pick (or more), that is very good news for the Jackets. On a sadder note, Boone Jenner is probably in need of a change of scenery. He doesn’t seem to mesh well with what the Jackets are attempting to do. He could also still yield a valuable asset in return and could create some cap space for the offseason to address some of the issues raised above and to start dealing with extensions for key players like Panarin and Werenski.
Which leaves us with goaltending. While I believe Joonas Korpisalo is an improvement over his predecessor, there remains a $9 million (plus?) question with respect to Bobrovsky after next year. That’s a conservative estimate of what the two-time Vezina winner might seek on his next contract. At 30-years-old, he’s also likely going to be seeking a six-eight year deal. That is a large commitment to a player who has yet to come up big when it matters most. The Rangers and Canadiens have two great goaltenders making $8.5 million and $10.5 million next year. They are also both out of the playoffs this year with the Rangers having sent a letter to fans breaking it to them gently that they will be deadline sellers.
There is no doubt that the Jackets would be even worse without Bob, but the question has to be asked if the team can afford to tie up that much cap space in one player. If not, this is the offseason they have to start dealing with the transition. Does that mean buying out Elvis Merzlikins’ contract with Lugano so the 23-year-old can come over to North America next year? Does that mean making a deal to acquire a goaltender in case negotiations with Bob don’t work out? Does that mean getting Korpisalo more playing time next year despite the theory that Bob doesn’t do well on long rest? Or, does it mean doing the unthinkable–trading Bobrovsky and acquiring a replacement at a lower cap hit? It is a difficult situation and one that could define the franchise going forward.
While it would hurt to miss the playoffs, I would not be bothered by getting the top 10 pick I fully expected the team to get last year. That’s another asset that can either be flipped for immediate help or, the better option in my view, kept to sustain organizational depth into the future.
Regardless, the Jackets are closer now than they were two years ago, and still on schedule. They have the center they needed. They have the defensemen they needed. And, for now, they have an elite goaltender though they need to make a decision about his future. They also have players who can yield them assets at the deadline (and, in Jenner’s case, even at the draft) if they decide to move them. The Jackets are not far away, if they can use these assets and some cap space to address their issues on the second line, they can be in a position to be a contender next year and beyond.
It’s Wednesday in the NHL, so you know what that means: time for me to pull out my weekly soapbox about supposed rivalries!
There’s three games on the schedule today, starting with Toronto at Columbus (SN/TVAS) at 7:30 p.m. and Detroit at Philadelphia (NBCSN) half an hour later. Finally, tonight’s nightcap of St. Louis at Calgary (SN360) will close out the evening at 9:30 p.m. All times Eastern.
If you can successfully pick the rivalry, be my guest. In the meantime, start heading towards Ohio for today’s featured matchup.
Before we start the preview, I need to vent for a moment: I need to do a better job of picking teams for this series. Combined, these clubs have been featured a only nine times before today (compared to Chicago and Nashville’s 11 times individually), even though they’ve both been at the top of their divisions all season.
You deserve better.
Ok, rant over.
Things haven’t been going exactly the way the 20-13-1 Blue Jackets would like in the month of December, as they’ve managed only a 4-5-0 record that includes an active two-game losing skid. Given the competitive nature of the Metropolitan Division, this little rough patch has dropped the Jackets into the top wildcard position.
On the season, Columbus has been among the best defensive teams, allowing only 2.7 goals against per game – the eighth-fewest in the NHL. However, that solid play has not been here this month, as the Jackets have allowed 33 goals, the (t)fifth-most in the league.
If we’re looking to place blame for this problem, I’m hard pressed to find an issue with Head Coach John Tortorella’s defensive corps. Led by RW Josh Anderson (1.22 takeaways per game), F Boone Jenner (three hits per game) and D Jack Johnson (1.77 blocks per game), the Jackets have allowed only 277 shots against this month, the 11th-fewest in the league.
Unfortunately, I’m leaning towards this defensive deficiency residing in net. Usually, 17-10-1 G Sergei Bobrovsky is among the best netminders in the league. After all, the two-time Vezina winner’s .919 season save percentage and 2.43 GAA rank are both top-10 efforts among the 31 goalies with at least 16 starts to their credits. However, his lackluster .878 save percentage and 3.81 GAA in December are both 11th-worst among all 65 goalies who have played this month.
But with an important Metropolitan Division game against Pittsburgh on the schedule tomorrow, all of that is water under the bridge since 3-3-0 G Joonas Korpisalo will be in net this evening. He’s managed a .902 save percentage and 2.97 GAA this season, and won his last start against the Ducks on December 1 (he relieved Bobrovsky on December 12, allowing two goals for no decision). If those numbers stand for the rest of the season, it’d be his worst NHL campaign, and considering he’s squaring against Toronto tonight, he’ll need to be on his A-game.
Speaking of those 21-13-1 Maple Leafs, they’ve been a consistent force to be reckoned with all season, as they’ve been in second place in the Atlantic Division for the entirety of the year. That was no more apparent than yesterday’s performance against a decent Hurricanes team: the Toronto thrashed them 8-1.
However, that win snapped a three-game losing skid, which shows that December hasn’t exactly been a friendly month to either of today’s squads. The Leafs have gone 4-4-0 since turning their calendar to its last page, and it’s because their floundering offense can’t take advantage of playing with a defense that has allowed only 16 goals in December (the [t]fewest in the NHL).
Even with the incredible efforts of second-liners C Tyler Bozak (3-4-7 totals), F Mitch Marner (1-7-8) and LW James van Riemsdyk (4-2-6), Toronto has managed only 18 goals in eight games this month – the third-fewest in the NHL. Perhaps it’s no surprise that a 2017-’18 Maple Leafs team without C Auston Matthews plays similar to the 2015-’16 team that was trying to draft him.
Ok, maybe that’s a little dramatic, but you get the idea.
If nothing else has been proven by this hand injury that has kept him out of the Leafs’ last five games, it’s proven how integral he is to his club. Matthews has followed up his amazing 40-29-69 rookie season with even better 13-13-26 totals through 26 games this campaign, putting him on pace for 36-36-72 marks by season’s end.
However, he won’t take a step towards achieving those totals this evening, as TSN’s Kristen Shilton is reporting that the only lineup change Head Coach Mike Babcock is making this evening is starting 3-3-0 G Curtis McElhinney due to 18-10-1 G Frederik Andersen being in net yesterday. That puts the onus on the Leafs’ offense to replicate yesterday’s success against a solid team.
With both backup goaltenders being in net tonight, this game has an interesting flair. Though McElhinney has been statistically better than Korpisalo this season, I’m leaning towards the Jackets finding a way to get their business done at home this evening.
With three goals in the second period, the Winnipeg Jets beat the Nashville Predators 6-4 at Bridgestone Arena in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day.
Even though the Jets registered the first goal of the game at the 8:05 mark of the first frame courtesy of F Adam Lowry (D Tyler Myers and First Star of the Game F Brandon Tanev), Nashville exited the first frame with the lead as it scored two goals in the final 41 seconds. Second Star F Calle Jarnkrok leveled the game with an unassisted wrist shot, followed by a snap shot from Third Star W Kevin Fiala (F Craig Smith) 20 seconds before reporting to the dressing room.
Going from winning to losing so swiftly didn’t seem to sit all that well with RW Patrik Laine (D Dmitry Kulikov and F Bryan Little), as he leveled the game at two-all at the 6:54 mark. However, the Preds took the lead once again only 61 seconds later on a D P.K. Subban (F Filip Forsberg and F Ryan Johansen) power play slap shot. The goal scoring spurt continued when W Nikolaj Ehlers (C Mark Scheifele and RW Blake Wheeler) buried a wrister at the 8:25 mark to level the game for Winnipeg, and he scored again (RW Joel Armia and D Tyler Myers) on a power play wrister with four minutes remaining in the period to claim the Jets’ first lead since Lowry’s tally.
The excitement continued in the third period, which didn’t take long to get started. Only 30 seconds into the final frame, D Yannick Weber (Fiala) set the score at four-all with a clapper. Though a combined total of 24 shots were fired on goal in the frame, that tie held through most of the period. However, Tanev (D Josh Morrissey and Lowry) was not all that interested in playing an overtime game with a divisional rival. He scored the game-winning goal with 1:26 remaining in regulation.
Though Tanev buried the goal, much of this score was the result of some stellar play in the defensive end by Morrissey. D Mattias Ekholm had the puck along the right boards, but had no teammates in support near him. Lowry and Morrissey took advantage and collapsed on him, forcing the puck out of his possession. Morrissey ended up with the puck on his stick and saw Tanev streaking towards center ice with no defensive pressure. After the pass, all Tanev needed to do was squeeze the shot between G Pekka Rinne and his right post with a sneaky wrister.
With little time to force overtime, Head Coach Peter Laviolette pulled Rinne almost immediately after the face-off to resume play to get an extra attacker on the ice. Though it took the Jets a moment to steal the puck back, Wheeler (Myers) was able to score a long-range wrister on an empty net with two seconds remaining to set the 6-4 final score.
G Connor Hellebuyck earned the victory after saving 30-of-34 shots faced (.882 save percentage), leaving the loss to Rinne, who saved 30-of-35 (.857).
Winning on the road is fun, especially when it snaps a four-game winning streak by home teams in the DtFR Game of the Day series. The 43-25-9 hosts still own an 18-point advantage in the series.
Peter’s vacation continues, so you are stuck with me once more for the recap of last week’s NHL action.
Player of the Week: Artemi Panarin
You didn’t really think I’d get through two straight columns without talking about the Blue Jackets, did you? The Breadman had been having a solid if unspectacular year as the calendar turned to December. Despite his talent (or because of it), it had taken some time for the Jackets to find line mates that paired well with the Russian winger. The initial thought was to put him with Alexander Wennberg and Cam Atkinson. On paper, that line made all of the sense in the world—two high scoring wingers paired with a player who showed his acumen for setting the table last season. On the ice was a different story. While Atkinson and Panarin clicked at points, Wennberg was too conservative, often playing in no man’s land beyond the offensive zone face-off circles.
This lead to weeks of John Tortorella running the blender to try and find lines that worked. In the meantime, Wennberg’s injury also forced Tortorella to get more creative at center, a position the Jackets had been looking to upgrade during the offseason. Enter rookie, Pierre-Luc Dubois. While the Jackets wanted Dubois to be their center of the future, the team had been hesitant to play him at the position, preferring to try and ease him in. But Torts took the advice of Dubois’ father who had found that when he was struggling with his game, he actually improved when forced into the rigors of playing center. After a bit of a cold spell for Dubois, Tortorella decided to give it a try and Dubois slowly moved his way up the lineup, taking advantage of the opportunity presented by Wennberg’s absence, and finding himself on the top line with Panarin and Josh Anderson. If the Jackets make noise in the postseason, the decision to unite the three unlikely line mates may be looked back as the moment that set the table for their success.
So, in recent weeks, the line which has affectionately become known as PB&J (Pierre, Breadman and Josh) has started to click, but Panarin had yet to really have a performance where he went off. That changed on Friday night in New Jersey. After a poor performance in Columbus on Tuesday against the Devils (notwithstanding excellent possession performances from the PB&J line), the Jackets’ backs were to the wall. They really needed the win against their divisional opponent given how tight the race is in the Metropolitan. The game didn’t start well for the Jackets with the team entering intermission down 2-0 and likely facing an unhappy LukasTortorella in the locker room. But the tide would turn in the second period largely due to the efforts of Panarin.
Panarin caused a turnover which found its way to Dubois’ stick for his first assist of the night. Another turnover created by Panarin lead to a goal by Lukas Sedlak in the middle of a line change to even up the score. Panarin’s third assist of the night may have been the most impressive. As four Devils watched Panarin, he saw the trailer, Scott Harrington, and made a perfect cross ice pass to get Harrington the goal. After the Devils tied it before the second period ended, the Jackets got a rare power play goal when Panarin made a backhanded pass to Wennberg who, in a rarer aggressive play, went to the net and buried the puck. Panarin would add a fifth first assist of the night when he found an open Zach Werenski for the fifth and final goal of the night. And that summary of the game doesn’t even fully encapsulate how well Panarin played. He was consistently finding his way through traffic and the puck seemed to be magnetically attracted to the tape on his stick blade.
While Saturday’s game was not nearly as exciting, Panarin still managed a Corsi For percentage of 58%. The Jackets would strike early as Panarin found Anderson behind the net and he would bury it top shelf. When you have Sergei Bobrovsky in net, sometimes one goal is enough, and it would prove to be the case. Panarin now has 6 straight primary assists for Columbus, but when you look back at Panarin’s performance this week, the thing that stands out that is underrated about him and is the big difference from Brandon Saad, is his play away from the puck. His work in creating two turnovers that set up those first two goals against New Jersey during a crucial time in the game on Friday prevented the game from getting out of control and righted the ship for a team that had a couple poor performances against divisional opponents before that game.
Game of the Week: Winnipeg Jets 3 at Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (OT), December 9, 2017.
We’ve covered this game extensively this week, and with good reason. One of the top teams in the Western, versus one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. A classic matchup between the immovable object and the unstoppable force. Even with the Jets coming off of two losses entering the game, you knew they would play up for this one. Yes, I’m talking about Winnipeg for the second time in my two weeks doing this column and no it isn’t because there is a social media account that retweets anything you tweet featuring the word Winnipeg, positive or negative (yes, that really was a thing).
The game got off to a quick start as you’d expect from two offensive powerhouses. Adam Lowry showed some great patience with two Lightning players defending him to find Andrew Copp in the slot for the first goal of the game. The Lightning continued their streak of nine straight games with a power play goal (that’s possible, eh?) when Brayden Point made a beautiful feed to give Yanni Gourde a goal that Connor Hellebuyck had no hope to stop.
A Cedric Paquette goal was overturned for goaltender interference by Chris Kunitz, so the score would stay 1-1, but Mikhail Sergachev would finally put the Lightning ahead with a beautiful shot after losing his defender with a quick change of directions. The Jets would not go away though. Former Youngstown Phantom, Kyle Connor, would redirect a rising shot from Josh Morrissey to even the game at 2 and that is how the second period would end.
Winnipeg retook the lead near the midway point of the third period when Nikolaj Ehlers somehow found Andrei Vasilevskiy’s five hole before the goaltender could even react to the shot. After Vasilevskiy would stop another attempt by Ehlers, Nikita Kucherov’s shot through traffic somehow found the net and the score was again tied at three. Note—the sequence I just described happened in all of about 2 minutes of game time. Both teams then settled down and got the game to overtime to salt away a point for their troubles.
Overtime wouldn’t last long though as Point would elude Bryan Little and get his backhand over Hellebuyck.
The Lightning continue to be in a class by themselves in the early part of the season, but the Jets gave it their all.
News, Notes, & Nonsense:
A busy week in NHL and other hockey news. On Tuesday the news came down that Russia would be banned from the Winter Olympics as punishment for their concerted efforts to violate anti-doping rules during the Sochi games in 2014. Clean Russian athletes will still be permitted to play at the games, but not under the Russian flag. If they are looking for a team name, I suggest “I Can’t Believe It’s Not Russia, Steroid Free!” There was concern that the KHL might prevent its players from playing in the Olympics, which would have thrown a monkey wrench in Team Canada’s plans for the games. However, cooler heads prevailed as the KHL probably realized there was value to having its athletes compete on the world’s highest international stage…unlike the NHL.
Backing up slightly, last Monday the City of Seattle approved the memorandum of understanding with the Oak View Group to remodel the ancient KeyArena at a cost of around $600 million (most of it comes from private funds) so that it could be suitable to host one or more professional sports franchises. This will likely be the death knell for a competing project which would have seen a new arena built closer where the existing stadiums are, in SoDo. The NHL owners, who conveniently had a Board of Governor’s meeting, couldn’t wait to let Seattle know that they would be willing to take their money consider their application for expansion. Fee for expansion? $650 million, exceeding the $500 million that Vegas just paid. I think Seattle is a great market for hockey in an underserved part of the country, but I also think the economics of a team with startup costs of over one billion dollars are a bit shaky. For comparison, the Blue Jackets paid a franchise fee of $80 million and built an arena at a cost of $175 million…and still eventually needed a bailout from local government. From the league’s side, it is understandable why they prefer Seattle to, say, Quebec City, because of the geographic balance adding the market will create.
Finally, let’s take a moment to remember 11 years ago when Anson Carter and his Columbus Blue Jackets teammates released a Christmas album. Amazingly I see no trace of this masterpiece on YouTube, so, if you are looking for a Christmas gift for me, there you go.