Down the Frozen River

Tag: John Tortorella

  • Columbus Blue Jackets 2021-22 Season Preview

    Columbus Blue Jackets 2021-22 Season Preview

    2020-21 record 18-26-12, 48 points

    8th in the Discover NHL Central Division

    Missed the postseason for the first time since 2016

    Additions: F Sean Kuraly, F Zac Rinaldo, F Jakub Voracek (acquired from PHI), D Jake Bean (acquired from CAR), D Adam Boqvist (acquired from CHI)

    Subtractions: F Cam Atkinson (traded to PHI), F Zac Dalpe (signed with FLA), F Mikhail Grigorenko (KHL), F Mikko Koivu (retired), F Ryan MacInnis (signed with BUF), F Stefan Matteau (signed with COL), F Cliff Pu (ICEHL), F Kole Sherwood (signed with OTT), F Daniel Zaar (KHL), D Adam Clendening (signed with PHI), D Michael Del Zotto (signed with OTT), D Seth Jones (traded to CHI)

    Still Unsigned: F Brandon Dubinsky, F Calvin Thürkauf (NL, CBJ reserve list)

    Re-signed: F Patrik Laine, F Alexandre Texier, D Gavin Bayreuther (expansion, SEA, then signed as UFA with CBJ), D Mikko Lehtonen

    Offseason Analysis: First off, where do we even start with how hard this offseason has been for the Blue Jackets organization?

    The loss of Matiss Kivlenieks is paramount in how Columbus approaches the season– honoring their fallen teammate along the way– as well as where they go from here with respect to future decisions in the crease.

    Kivlenieks had potential to be selected by the Seattle Kraken at the expansion draft. He had potential to become the Blue Jackets’ backup in the near future if the team had moved Joonas Korpisalo or Elvis Merzlikins prior to choosing one or the other next July anyway as both Korpisalo and Merzlikins are pending-unrestricted free agents.

    In what’s become an all too familiar reminder lately, tragedy, as with death, is part of life.

    He was a kind soul that was taken from us too soon.

    Columbus welcomed home Dublin, Ohio native, Sean Kuraly on a four-year contract worth $2.500 million per season as the 28-year-old departed his bottom-six role with the Boston Bruins for more money and a change of scenery as his production dropped from 23 points (six goals, 17 assists) in 69 games in 2019-20 to nine points (four goals, five assists) in 47 games last season.

    The Blue Jackets are hoping Kuraly’s arrival will feature a resurgence unlike when Riley Nash left Boston on a high-note and faltered in his Columbus tenure before being traded at last season’s trade deadline to the Toronto Maple Leafs.

    Whereas Mikko Koivu joined Columbus for the 2020-21 season prior to retiring from the NHL after seven games in a Blue Jackets uniform, Blue Jackets General Manager, Jarmo Kekäläinen, can count on Kuraly to patch up the bottom-six– especially the fourth line– without the prospect of sudden retirement.

    There’s a familiar face in town this season as Jakub Voracek is back in a Blue Jackets jersey for the first time since the 2010-11 season after Kekäläinen dealt Cam Atkinson to the Philadelphia Flyers in a one-for-one trade as the Flyers looked to save some salary for other important areas.

    Voracek, like Kuraly, could use a bit of a resurgence as of late after his numbers dropped from 66 points in 78 games with Philadelphia in 2018-19 to 56 points in 69 games with Philly in 2019-20 and, most recently, 9-34–43 totals in 53 games with the Flyers last season.

    Interestingly enough, the 32-year-old forward has never scored more than 23 goals in a season (set back in 82 games in 2013-14 with Philadelphia) and had three consecutive seasons of 20 or more goals from 2012-13 through 2014-15 and again from 2016-17 through 2018-19.

    Columbus also grabbed the rights to Jake Bean in a trade with the Carolina Hurricanes and signed Bean to a three-year extension– incorporating the 23-year-old defender as part of the Blue Jackets’ blue line reform in the aftermath of one of the biggest trades this offseason.

    After stating that he wouldn’t sign an extension with Columbus, Seth Jones was dealt to Chicago with a 2021 1st round pick (32nd overall, Nolan Allan) and a 2022 6th round pick for Adam Boqvist, a 2021 1st round pick (12th overall, Cole Sillinger), a 2021 2nd round pick that was when flipped to Carolina for Bean and a conditional 2022 1st round pick.

    If Chicago wins one of the 2022 draft lotteries, then the 2022 1st round pick becomes a 2023 1st round pick and in any case, the Blue Jackets aren’t paying Jones $9.500 million per season when his new extension kicks in next season.

    Except Columbus then turned around and gave Zach Werenski a six-year extension worth $9.583 million that goes into effect starting with the 2022-23 season through 2027-28.

    At the very least, it shows that the Blue Jackets are willing to commit dollars and term to a player in their organization, though with the steep prices paid by teams for defensive talent via free agency, trades and in extensions this offseason, only time will tell if it was truly worth it.

    Werenski is 24-years-old and will be turning 31 shortly after this extension expires.

    The good news is that it’ll cover his defensive prime, as long as he can stay healthy and at that high level of competition.

    The bad news is that Columbus could be playing with fire if their ongoing overhaul doesn’t pan out soon enough.

    Speaking of the changing of seasons, Brad Larsen went from being an assistant coach with the team to being named the 10th head coach in franchise history after John Tortorella was told his contract would not be renewed.

    Larsen’s been around in the Blue Jackets organization since the 2010-11 season when he was named as an assistant coach with the Springfield Falcons (AHL). He spent two seasons in that role before becoming the Falcons’ head coach from 2012-14, prior to being called up to being behind the bench in Columbus as an assistant coach from the 2014-15 season through 2020-21.

    Perhaps Patrik Laine can get a chance to relax and play his game his way– as with the rest of the young Blue Jackets players– growing and developing in accordance with their preferred styles instead of being told to conform to a universal 200-foot style game.

    That’s not to say that Tortorella’s tenure with Columbus wasn’t worth it, but rather to point out that it takes the right kind of players to perform under a certain structure and the Blue Jackets shifted away from that over the years.

    Offseason Grade: C

    Columbus didn’t do anything irrational and avoided the potential salary cap hell that might come with Jones’ extension in Chicago given his recent decline.

    That said, they also then willingly gave Werenski what Jones was asking for and then some because surely they weren’t afraid of history repeating itself or anything.

    Regardless, Kekäläinen still has about $10.4 million in cap space for 2021-22, which means they won’t necessarily be good enough for playoff contention, but that’s the point.

    Either Columbus will get lucky and strike it rich with what they’ve got, the systems Larsen develops and the new additions here and there or they’ll fall further in the standings and get lucky in the 2022 Draft Lottery.

  • Analysis: Leafs add depth and vital cap space in Nash

    The Toronto Maple Leafs acquired center, Riley Nash, from the Columbus Blue Jackets for a conditional 2022 7th round pick on Friday. If Nash appears in 25% of Toronto’s 2021 postseason games, then the 2022 7th round pick is upgraded to the Maple Leafs’ own 2022 6th round pick.

    Nash, in the meantime, was placed on the long-term injured reserve on Tuesday (ahead of Friday’s deal) with a lower body injury that is expected to keep him sidelined for six weeks at most.

    While Columbus continues to fall out of the playoff picture, Maple Leafs General Manager, Kyle Dubas, got some much needed depth in the event of injury and relief in salary cap spending as the trade deadline approaches on Monday, April 12th at 3 p.m. ET.

    Toronto won’t have to worry about working Nash into the lineup or his salary for the time being, while Dubas is free to work the phones for potential additions without subtraction as the Leafs look to win their first Stanley Cup ring since 1967.

    Nash, 31, had seven points (two goals, five assists) in 37 games with Columbus this season at the time of the trade on Friday.

    A Consort, Alberta native, he has 63-109–172 totals in 578 career NHL games with the Carolina Hurricanes, Boston Bruins and Blue Jackets and was originally drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in the 1st round (21st overall) of the 2007 NHL Draft.

    The 6-foot-2, 188-pound center made his league debut with the Hurricanes in 2011-12, and has 2-6–8 totals in 32 career Stanley Cup Playoff games, including one goal and one assist in 10 postseason games in 2020 with Columbus.

    He set career-highs in goals (15), assists (26) and points (41) in 76 games with the Bruins in 2017-18, and has made a career out of being one of the better penalty killing forwards in today’s game.

    Nash carries a $2.750 million cap hit and is a pending-unrestricted free agent at season’s end.

    The 2022 7th round pick that the Blue Jackets acquired in the Nash trade is Toronto’s own, which likely won’t pan out to be much unless Columbus General Manager, Jarmo Kekäläinen, has other ideas in mind, such as utilizing his scouting staff to the utmost of their ability and finding a diamond in the rough or flipping the pick as part of a deal at a later date.

    In the meantime, Kekäläinen has bigger fish to fry with head coach, John Tortorella’s, contract expiring at season’s end and virtually no reason to keep Tortorella in the dressing room if the Blue Jackets are indeed to miss 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs action.

    Columbus could fire Tortorella now and try to save face when it comes time to re-sign valuable free agents like pending restricted free agent, Patrik Laine, or they could let Tortorella go without renewing his current deal (and thus owing nothing in severance packages or whatever) and face whatever consequences that has on their roster.

    Additionally, Kekäläinen will have to assess whether it’s worth selling off further expendable parts to gear up for the 2021 Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft, as well as the 2021-22 season.

  • Columbus Blue Jackets 2020-21 Forecast and 20-Game Update

    Columbus Blue Jackets 2020-21 Forecast and 20-Game Update

    Welcome back to another exciting rendition of “let’s trust the guy with a degree in communication to do some basic math stuff”.

    As you are hopefully already aware, I kept the 2019-20 forecasts under wraps simply because I didn’t have the time and/or motivation to write up an explanation for each and every one of them.

    Even still, I’m “behind” on 2020-21 posts given that the Columbus Blue Jackets have already reached the 20-game mark of the season.

    That’s why we’re looking at both what the expectations were coming into the condensed 56-game schedule, as well as how things are holding up after the first, well, almost half the season.

    If you’re a fan of numbers and things, you probably already read about this “catch-up format” in my first forecast for the Boston Bruins roster entering 2020-21. If you’re just a Blue Jackets fan, I’ve done my best to paraphrase my own writing, but you can go back and read it if you feel inclined.

    As always, keep in mind that my degree is in communication and my minor was in sport management. My Intro to Stats class only fulfilled the math portion of my “general education” and met once-a-week at night for two-and-a-half hours in the fall 2013 semester.

    I actually learned how to use the forecast function in Microsoft Excel in one of my sport management classes. Besides that, I got a “C” in that Intro to Stats class, so my credentials for doing this seem promising, right?

    First year players are impossible to predict until they’ve had at least one National Hockey League game under their belt.

    Young players that have had minimal NHL experience may also reflect “inflated” results– Liam Foudy’s forecasted assists entering the 2020-21 season has been highlighted for this reason.

    Entering this season, he had only been part of two career NHL games and had one assist in that span. The forecasting function accounts for a player’s entire career and does some mathematics to come up with something over a predetermined number of games for the upcoming season (in this year’s case, 56).

    In other words, Foudy’s forecast after 20 team games played should look a bit more “realistic”, for the lack of a better term.

    A forecast is not the same as predicting pace.

    Foudy has three assists in 12 games played in 2020-21, for example, and is forecasted to finish with about 11 on the season, whereas he is currently on pace for about eight helpers.

    There are numerous variables that can, and will, impact a players’ performance throughout the year, including injuries, being a healthy scratch (or on the taxi squad), other American Hockey League related or waiver related transactions, sickness, COVID protocol, suspensions and general superstitions related to individual routines, beliefs, etc. (getting enough sleep before a game, wearing a certain lucky tie, using the same undershirt or shoulder pads for the last 13 years or whatever).

    Players can get “hot” or “cold” at any point.

    It’s not something that can be accounted for in a numerical forecast that sets aside the “eye test” until you try to figure out the nuances of how or why a player is playing the way they are playing.

    In a perfect timeline, this forecast pretends nothing bad could ever happen and every Blue Jackets player lives up to their expectations. In reality, some will pan out, some will exceed expectations and some will fall short for whatever reason.

    It’s an educated guess for an outcome in a sport that’s highly unpredictable due to its collectivistic nature and sheer puck luck.

    Columbus Blue Jackets Forecast Through 0 Games (56 Games Remaining)

    First up, let’s take a look at how things were expected to go coming into the 2020-21 season.

    Prior to being traded to the Winnipeg Jets for Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic, Dubois was forecasted to lead Columbus in scoring with 16-22–38 totals this season.

    New acquisition, Max Domi, was forecasted as a close second to Dubois with 37 points– leading the team in assists in the process with 25 (among NHL regulars last season, since Foudy technically was forecasted to lead in assists among Blue Jackets with 28).

    Of course, Dubois was traded and Laine and Roslovic are off to hot starts with Columbus– scoring goals in bunches when they find the scoresheet, it seems. We’ll get to that in a minute.

    Cam Atkinson was forecasted to score 19 goals prior to the start of the 2020-21 season, which leads Dubois’ 16 forecasted goals and Gustav Nyquist’s 14 forecasted goals on the roster.

    Dubois, of course, was traded and Nyquist is out due to injury for most of this season, so… that checks out.

    On defense, Zach Werenski and Seth Jones were expected to continue to lead with the way with 33 and 27 points, respectively, from the blue line.

    Both defenders are expected to amass 21 assists this season– good enough for the third most forecasted among Blue Jackets skaters entering this season.

    In the crease, John Tortorella will have to find the right balance between Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins.

    There’s potential for a really solid goaltending duo in Columbus if Korpisalo is the starter and can best his 2.66 forecasted goals against average, as well as his forecasted .911 save percentage, while Merzlikins manages to find a way to reach his 2.35 forecasted GAA and .923 forecasted SV%.

    Of course, after 20 team games played, Merzlikins is currently out with an upper body injury, so time will tell if he can return to form.

    Columbus Blue Jackets Forecast Through 20 Games (36 Games Remaining)

    Through 20 games of the 2020-21 season, the Blue Jackets are three points outside of the last playoff spot in the Discover NHL Central Division, trailing the Chicago Blackhawks for this season’s 4th place cutoff line.

    The acquisition of Laine and Roslovic have been quite a welcome sight for Columbus fans, though consistency from the rest of the lineup remains to be an issue.

    Laine, however, is currently forecasted to lead the team in goals (26) and points (46), while Roslovic is on track for 10-17–27 totals, which is about what he had in 71 games with the Jets last season (29 points).

    Using the current forecasted totals, Roslovic is on track for about .551 points per game this season. He had .408 points per game with Winnipeg in 2019-20.

    Atkinson remains in the top-three in scoring, trailing Laine in goals and points with 20 forecasted goals and 39 forecasted points, respectively, while Oliver Bjorkstrand is currently forecasted to amass 15-21–36 totals (the third most on the current roster).

    On the blue line, Jones leads the way among defenders in points (32), as well as all skaters in assists with 27 forecasted assists through 20 team games played in the 2020-21 season.

    Werenski is more in line with what you’d expect from a young defender of his caliber (8-16–24 forecasted totals) and has missed time due to injury, so that’s clearly a factor in his forecasted drop from before the season began to now.

    In the crease, Korpisalo is sure to get more starts than Merzlikins as the latter is currently injured.

    Korpisalo’s current forecast yields a goals against average between 2.59-2.63, while Merzlikins is on track for a 2.29-2.33 in however many games he ends up getting.

    Why the range in GAA?

    That’s new for this season.

    It’s just to show a range between what the forecasted total is according to the model and what the adjusted forecast shows (calculated based on the forecasted goals allowed/forecasted minutes multiplied by 60, as one would traditionally do with goals allowed/minutes played multiplied by 60 to determine GAA).

    I’m no statistician and I felt like there might be a way to try to get a better read on how things are going for goaltenders (with or without enough necessary data to yield a “realistic” result).

    Don’t make any bets using only this forecast. If you’re a professional, you probably already know that.

    Anyway, Korpisalo has a forecasted range between .912 and .913 in save percentage through 20 team games played and Merzlikins is on track for between a .923 and a .924 in SV%.

    Again, a similar principle applies here.

    One end of the range is the straight up forecast, while the other is influenced by forecasted saves/forecasted shots against.

    Well, that does it for this forecast. Tune in after 40 team games played to see how things might go down the stretch (the final 16 games this season).

  • DTFR Podcast #217- Hurry Up, We’re Streaming

    DTFR Podcast #217- Hurry Up, We’re Streaming

    “Tracking pucks” are out (at least for now), Pierre-Luc Dubois and Patrik Laine were traded for one another, Jim Rutherford resigned as General Manager of the Pittsburgh Penguins and the “NDubble” is underway in Lake Placid.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher and/or on Spotify.

  • DTFR Podcast #214- 2020-21 Season Preview: West Division

    DTFR Podcast #214- 2020-21 Season Preview: West Division

    Zdeno Chara signed with the Washington Capitals, the AHL announced plans for the 2020-21 season, the NHL divisions are sponsored for 2020-21, what’s going on with the New York Islanders, Pierre-Luc Dubois wants out (maybe) and we preview the West Division for the 2020-21 season.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher and/or on Spotify.

  • Chara, Hoffman and now this?

    The Boston Bruins’ long-time captain since the 2006-07 season, 43-year-old Zdeno Chara remains unsigned as the end of the calendar year, 2020, draws near.

    Chara’s agent, Matt Keator, has been reported as noting that the defender has had contact from more than 20 teams this offseason, but is focused on re-signing with the Bruins if there’s a deal to be had.

    Of course, he could also just flat-out retire.

    It’s not that Boston couldn’t use the services of their longtime cornerstone on the blue line, but the Bruins are shaking things up this offseason on defense– partially because of necessity and partially because that’s just how time works.

    Torey Krug left for the St. Louis Blues in free agency and guys like Jakub Zboril, Jeremy Lauzon, Connor Clifton and Urho Vaakanainen are all vying for potentially the same couple of spots.

    Kevan Miller was brought back on a one-year, $1.250 million deal and John Moore is still on the books through the 2022-23 season at a $2.750 million cap hit.

    With a little under $3.000 million in available cap room, the B’s could be looking to sign Chara to a short-term league minimum contract– one-year, $700,000– and present themselves with at least $2.300 million to offer someone like Mike Hoffman or lure back Carl Soderberg into the mix for added scoring touch or depth, respectively.

    If they can’t land Hoffman, then Soderberg is likely the best consolation prize as the offseason drags on and two-week quarantine periods might affect how call-ups from the Providence Bruins (AHL) work.

    That’s the latest on how AHL roster transactions might be handled this season, by the way. It all depends on what your state, province or region (if short-term bubbles get involved) has to say about moving players within your own organization.

    Soderberg might not be better than playing Jack Studnicka every night, but in a pinch he’d be better than nothing.

    After all, he did have 35 points in 70 games with the Arizona Coyotes last season and that’s nothing to sneeze at for a bottom-six forward.

    As for Chara, it might be a matter of swallowing a little pride.

    He certainly is deserving of almost whatever he wants for the career he’s had and role he’s played in Boston’s leadership for almost 15 years.

    But if he’s wanting $1.000 million or more for what’s likely his last season in the league, then the Bruins would be smart to bow out unless they’re able to trade someone like Moore and find a durable top-four defender while convincing Chara to minimize his minutes as a bottom-six defender.

    Yet that’d mean they wouldn’t be able to find a guy to play on David Krejci’s wing. You know, kind of what they’ve needed since 2015.

    As for Hoffman, the one-time 30-goal scorer has reached the 50-point plateau in the last five seasons and somehow remains on the free agent market.

    Whereas the Columbus Blue Jackets have about $9.200 million to spend, how much is Hoffman willing to pull a move similar to Taylor Hall’s one-year deal with the Buffalo Sabres and try to match Hall’s $8.000 million cap hit this season?

    Columbus could be a great landing spot for the 31-year-old winger, but would the Blue Jackets be spurned by yet another player in free agency next offseason? Especially if John Tortorella is what could be holding players up from staying long-term?

    To play with the Blue Jackets you have to be a 200-foot player in accordance with Tortorella’s style. That’s likely to keep Hoffman from possibly capitalizing on short-term monetary gain with limited options elsewhere unless he can do more than just score.

    He might be the one-dimensional sniper Columbus needs, but not if General Manager, Jarmo Kekäläinen, and Tortorella can’t see eye-to-eye on the team’s plan.

    For the Bruins to sign Hoffman and bring his 29-30–59 totals in 69 games with the Florida Panthers last season to the Hub of the Universe, Boston would have to shed some salary in a swap for either a defender as they’re reportedly looking for or some draft picks.

    That’s where Anders Bjork could be a suitable asset to send to a team in return for, like, a third round pick or something.

    Nevertheless, Boston’s not the “Cup contenders” that they were going into last season.

    They might figure out a way to win the East Division regular season standings or they could finish fourth in the division and barely make their way into the postseason.

    Regardless, the Bruins need to land a top-six forward if Craig Smith is to settle in and get comfy on the third line and patch the defense for a short term fix if management thinks otherwise about the team’s “Cup contender” status.

    It’s this year or bust– and in a 56-game regular season every early season game matters that much more.

    Getting off on the right foot without Brad Marchand (possibly) and David Pastrnak on opening night (and missing Pastrnak for at least a month) is vital.

    It’s crunch time.

  • DTFR Podcast #209- Mic Check/Always Improving

    DTFR Podcast #209- Mic Check/Always Improving

    Nick and Colby review some of the biggest signings in free agency, as well as other happenings this offseason in the National Hockey League, including teams that have improved, a 2020-21 season outlook and more in the season seven debut of the podcast.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher and/or on Spotify.

  • DTFR Podcast #206- What’s Kapanen, My Dudes?

    DTFR Podcast #206- What’s Kapanen, My Dudes?

    The DTFR Duo discuss Photoshop, Todd Reirden’s firing, Arizona Coyotes draft violations, the Kasperi Kapanen trade back to Pittsburgh and the Second Round of the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher and/or on Spotify.

  • DTFR Podcast #205- Flaming Out (feat. Jess Belmosto)

    DTFR Podcast #205- Flaming Out (feat. Jess Belmosto)

    Jess Belmosto joins the show to talk about Tuukka Rask, Game 6 between the Calgary Flames and Dallas Stars, First Round eliminations and more.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher and/or on Spotify.

    Subscribe to Garden Gals as well as Locked on Flames and read Jess’ work at Couch Guy Sports and PuckerUp Sports by clicking on any of the hyperlinks we have just provided for you.

  • DTFR Podcast #204- Late For Everything!

    DTFR Podcast #204- Late For Everything!

    Nick and Colby talk about what went wrong for the Toronto Maple Leafs and other teams eliminated in the 2020 Stanley Cup Qualifier, as well as preview the already in progress 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs First Round.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher and/or on Spotify.