Nick, Colby and Connor talk the Max Pacioretty trade, Eugene Melnyk’s latest antics, John Tortorella’s extension, Adam McQuaid and Steve Yzerman stepping down in Tampa. Also in this episode– DTFR’s official 2018-19 Atlantic Division preview.
36-35-11, 83 points, sixth in the Metropolitan Division
Subtractions: D Jake Chelios (signed by Detroit), D Klas Dahlbeck (signed by CSKA Moscow), D Noah Hanifin (traded to Calgary), C Marcus Kruger (traded to Arizona), F Elias Lindholm (traded to Calgary), F Andrew Miller (signed by HC Fribourg-Gotteron), F Joakim Nordstrom (signed by Boston), HC Bill Peters (resigned, hired by Calgary), C Derek Ryan (signed by Calgary), F Jeff Skinner (traded to Buffalo), G Jeremy Smith (signed by Bridgeport), G Cam Ward (signed by Chicago)
Offseason Analysis: I had the pleasure of composing Carolina’s season preview last summer, and let me tell you: I was super excited. I was convinced this team was finally going to cause some real trouble in the Metropolitan Division on the back of its excellent defense and formidable offense.
Instead we got the same Hurricanes we’ve grown accustomed to over these past few years: a team that, while it was among the better sides to miss out on the postseason, extended its playoff drought to nine-straight seasons.
After a busy offseason for the Canes, it’s safe to say that expectations for the club this season are nowhere near as high. Five forwards that played at least 41 games last season are not returning to Raleigh, not to mention defensive stalwart Hanifin and Ward – a goaltender that, while aging, is still capable of stealing a few games – taking their respective talents to Calgary and Chicago.
If any part of Carolina’s game won’t suffer from these roster moves, it’ll likely be the defense, as the Canes lost a great defenseman and replaced him with one just as good. de Haan played only 33 games last season for the Isles, but his 2016-17 campaign was excellent. He posted 5-20-25 totals in 82 games played with a +15 rating on a team that allowed 238 goals against – the eighth-most in the league that season – due in large part to his 190 shot blocks and 139 hits. Having turned only 27-years-old in May, I have no reason to believe de Haan can’t rediscover that physical form and continue to be an imposing force on the blue line.
Instead, it will be the Hurricanes’ offense that will take a more noticeable step backwards, specifically in the top-six. Assuming that Brind’Amour plays Svechnikov in that position (I think it’s a very safe guess), as well as probable fellow rookies Martin Necas and Valentin Zykov, it will be up to Ferland, Teravainen and Aho (who himself is only entering his third NHL season) to spearhead the scoring lines (You’ll notice I left F Jordan Staal out of that group. That’s because he’s never had any business playing first line center).
It’s not to say this group doesn’t have the potential to be lethal in a few seasons (I’d argue Aho and Svechnikov have a chance to become one on the best lines in the NHL someday), but I just don’t see everything coming together to make this campaign anything more than a learning experience.
To make matters worse, even if the offense can manage to be just average (scoring around 95 goals for the entire season, or over a goal per game), it won’t get very much support from the goaltending department. G Scott Darling posted a horrendous .888 save percentage in 43 appearances last season for a 3.18 GAA, and Mrazek wasn’t all that much better with his .902 save percentage and 3.03 GAA in 39 regular season appearances between Detroit and Philadelphia.
Both netminders will certainly be looking for bounce back years (especially Mrazek, who is in another contract season), but my faith in them has dwindled to the point that I won’t believe they’ve improved until I see it. If my doubts are proven, there’s real potential that rookie G Alex Nedeljkovic, the Canes’ second-round pick in 2014, could see some considerable playing time in the NHL instead of with Carolina’s AHL affiliate in Charlotte.
Offseason Grade: D
Especially after winning the draft lottery to pick second, I was surprised the rumors coming out of Raleigh were that the Canes were intending to gut their roster. Now that we’re only a couple weeks away from training camp, I find myself surprised that Carolina didn’t move more NHL pieces to fully invest in the future (perhaps those moves are being held for the trade deadline?). For not fully committing to either plan (keep the team together or blow it apart), General Manager Don Waddell does not get a passing grade from me.
29-40-13, 71 points, 6th in the Atlantic Division
Additions: F Kenny Agostino, F Joel Armia (acquired from WPG), F Michael Chaput, F Max Domi (acquired from ARI), D Xavier Ouellet, F Matthew Peca, F Tomas Plekanec, F Hunter Shinkaruk (acquired from CGY)
Subtractions: D Simon Bourque (traded to WPG), F Daniel Carr (signed with VGK), F Adam Cracknell (signed with TOR), F Markus Eisenschmid (signed, DEL), G Zach Fucale (signed with VGK), F Alex Galchenyuk (traded to ARI), F Jeremy Gregoire (signed with Milwaukee Admirals, AHL), G Steve Mason (acquired from WPG, buyout), F Joonas Nattinen (signed, KHL), D Tom Parisi (signed, Great Britain), F Kerby Rychel (traded to CGY), F Chris Terry (signed with DET)
Re-signed: F Phillip Danault, F Jacob de la Rose
Offseason Analysis: They didn’t get Jeff Skinner, so now what?
The Montreal Canadiens 2018-19 regular season campaign can’t be much worse than 2017-18. While the Buffalo Sabres are sure to climb out of eighth in the Atlantic Division, at least the Ottawa Senators will more than likely be the foundation of the division standings come April.
Claude Julien‘s Canadiens had the third worst goal differential (a minus-55) in the league last season and with uncertainty surrounding Max Pacioretty‘s future in Montreal, well, that’s about to get worse. No amount of a healthy Carey Price can save the Canadiens porous defense, especially with star defender Shea Weber sidelined due to injury for at least a couple months.
General Manager Marc Bergevin made a little splash in the trade market this offseason, sending Alex Galchenyuk to the Arizona Coyotes in exchange for Max Domi. While Domi brings grit to the Canadiens lineup, so does Andrew Shaw— just without the scoring power.
Wait, Galchenyuk had six more points (19-32–51 totals in 82 GP for MTL) than Domi (9-36–45 in 82 GP for ARI) last season? And that was a “bad” year?
Domi emerged onto the NHL spotlight with an 18-goal season in 2015-16 (81 GP). Injuries limited the young forward to just 59 games in 2016-17, a season in which he amassed 9-29–38 totals. In 23 more games from 2016-17 to 2017-18, Domi had seven more points.
Meanwhile, Galchenyuk has reached the 40-point plateau for the last four seasons– including two 50-plus point seasons.
Bergevin is gambling on Domi to return to form– and then some– but the question remains ever present– how long can these Bergevin gambles go on in Canada’s most prestigious club de hockey?
Joel Armia, Matthew Peca and Xavier Ouellet are sneaky pickups by the Habs that may lead to improved depth, depth and a make-or-break season (for whatever reason), respectively.
The ceremonious return of Tomas Plekanec to the franchise may at least bring back something right to the universe– a Plekanec goatee and turtleneck combo, unlike his short tenure with the Toronto Maple Leafs in which Lou Lamoriello’s oppressive regime on facial hair wrought havoc on the hockey universe.
In all seriousness, though, Julien’s time in Montreal may be limited if the front office is looking for someone else to blame other than themselves for their colossal collapse the last few seasons. No amount of Jesperi Kotkaniemi (another gamble at 3rd overall in this year’s Draft) can make up for the inevitable– another long season for Habs fans.
Offseason Grade: D
Like the Ottawa Senators and Erik Karlsson, Montreal really should be receiving an “incomplete” grade until the Max Pacioretty situation is resolved. However, unlike the Sens, the Habs at least added some marginal talent in Max Domi this offseason (albeit at the expense of Alex Galchenyuk) compared to Ottawa’s… well, let’s not compare those two clubs by themselves, shall we?
The Canadiens are like that guy in your class that has a 65 and is technically still passing the class. You know the school year won’t be great for that guy and you also know things could be worse, but they just can’t no matter how hard he tries (or doesn’t try?) because someone is always doing a little bit worse.
Claude Julien is still a good coach, sure, but his system is becoming outdated for the contemporary game. Also, his last Cup win came outside of my “great coach” status (basically, you’re only a “great coach” if you’ve won a Cup within the last five seasons– you’re at the top of the game among the rest– until you retire, then you can lean back on your trophy case all you want to stack up), but that’s a hill worth dying on another day.
24-45-12, 60 points, Last in the NHL
Offseason Analysis: The Buffalo Sabres have had a busy summer, but that’s what you expect from a team that significantly under-produced and finished last in the league. The only positive takeaway from last season was winning the lottery and drafting Swedish defenseman Rasmus Dahlin first overall.
General Manager Jason Botterill was looking to shake things up more with his roster, making three separate trades to land Tage Thompson, Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, Conor Sheary, Matt Hunwick and Jeff Skinner. Botterill only gave up Ryan O’Reilly, Cliff Pu and a handful of draft picks. The biggest parts of all three trades for Buffalo was keeping their three first-round picks in the 2019 NHL Draft. Botterill did a great job injecting speed and proven NHL players into a roster that lacked both last season.
With the No. 1 farm system (as voted by The Athletic), there are a few players from the minor leagues who, with a good camp, could crack the NHL roster.
In particular, C.J. Smith had a strong first pro season in the AHL that became derailed with an injury. Things never seemed to click after he returned to the ice, but the promise he showed while healthy will certainly warrant a look from Head Coach Phil Housley.
Victor Olofsson has a chance at making it to the big time as well. The former seventh-round pick led the SHL last season in goals and is proclaimed to have one of the best shots in the game.
Finally, Rasmus Asplund would also be coming from the SHL and could aim for the fourth-line center position, taking the spot from Johan Larsson.
Buffalo should have a much better season this year, so it’s time for Housley, entering his second season, to show he can coach in the NHL. This is a “prove it” season for a lot of people in the Sabres organization and they shouldn’t be in 31st again this season.
The biggest question mark this year will be in goal with the Sabres signing Carter Hutton to be the new No. 1 goalie ahead of Linus Ullmark. Hutton is coming off a career year with the St. Louis Blues. He has to show it wasn’t a fluke or Ullmark will take the starting job faster than expected. If Hutton and Ullmark don’t work out, the Sabres could be in big trouble without a solution in sight.
Offseason Grade: B
Overall, the Sabres had a good offseason overhaul, but there are still questions about top-six defenseman and lineup notes. But, Botterill did his job and it now comes down to Housley to get the most out of his players and have some success. I don’t think they will be anywhere near 31st with Ottawa and Montreal existing, but I think playoff hopes are too far away for the Sabres this season. I think they’ll finish fifth in the division.
We’re just a few hours away from the NHL Draft, so I thought I would put together a few quick hits to tide you over before Gary Bettman gets up to say “we have a trade to announce” for the first time and every NHL GM talks about how wonderful Dallas is as a city.
At the beginning of the junior hockey season, I highlighted four draft-eligible players from the WHL–Ty Smith, Jett Woo, Riley Sutter and Alexander Alexeyev. So, how did there season go and where might you see them go tonight? Smith, the left-handed defenseman from Spokane, finished the year with 73 points in 69 games and another 7 points in 7 playoff games. Central Scouting had him ranked 14th among North American Skaters and that is also where he finished the season. ISS had him ranked at 19th at the end of the season. Some rankings have him as high as #8 and others in the mid-late 20’s. That is the nature of this year’s draft though–there is some depth in the draft and a wide variance in rankings outside of the top 2-3 picks.
Jett Woo really fell off the radar as the year went on. Missing 28 games with an upper-body injury in your draft year will do that. Some early rankings had him as a mid-late first round pick, but Central Scouting had him as the 28th best North American skater and ISS didn’t have him ranked in the first round. His 25 points in 44 games wasn’t particularly remarkable and his playoff performance–3 points in 14 games–certainly didn’t help things. Based on how the season went, I’d say Woo projects more as a dependable, second pairing defenseman who is good all around, but not stellar in the offensive zone. There are enough positives that he will probably go in the first half of the second round.
Riley Sutter finished the season with a solid, but not spectacular, 53 points in 68 games. He had a very good stint in the playoffs with 19 points in 21 games. Sutter will probably still be on the board after the second round. A solid two-way player, who plays the center position, has size, pedigree and plays his best hockey in the playoffs…some GM could get bold and take him in the second round. In all likelihood, he projects as a very good third line center that can occasionally slot in on the second line.
Alexander Alexeyev put up 37 points in 45 games this season and followed it up with 5 points in 3 playoff games. Like Woo, he’s had injury issues, but, when healthy, he’s been looked to contribute more than Woo, routinely logging 20 plus minutes a night. Like Woo, he’s a solid, two-way defenseman, but, to this point, he’s had more offensive upside. So, it shouldn’t be too surprising that Alexeyev has been ranked higher than Woo, showing up at 24th on the final ISS rankings and 22nd on Central Scouting’s North American skater list. There is a lot of risk in picking Alexeyev in the first round, but given the importance of defense, it wouldn’t be shocking to see a team take him with one of the last ten picks in the first round.
If somehow Ty Smith was still on the board at 18, I’d be stoked to see the Jackets get him, though they are more likely to prioritize a forward and the odds of Smith slipping that far seem low given the number of teams in need of a defenseman picking ahead of Columbus.
- It wouldn’t be the offseason without some sort of contract drama for the Jackets. Last year we saw Josh Anderson‘s contract negotiations draft out until the fall. This year, drama regarding the extension of Artemi Panarin has come a year early after the 2019 UFA-to-be stated he was not yet ready to sign an extension come July 1. Jarmo Kekalainen was, predictably, calm about the situation, but he’s also going to spend the weekend seeing what the market is for the dynamic wing, which is the smart thing to do. Despite the gloom and doom from certain local beat writers, Panarin isn’t going anywhere unless someone wants to overpay the Jackets.
- Interestingly, Kekaleinen made a comment that what went for Panarin, also went for Sergei Bobrovsky, which was largely ignored as people focused on the Panarin rumors. The Jackets didn’t have an easy go the last time they had to negotiate an extension with Bobrovsky, but their internal options to replace Bobrovsky next year are uncertain at best given the season Joonas Korpisalo had and the fact that Elvis Merzlikins has yet to play in North America. The fact that Bobrovsky will likely be looking for a raise and a long-term deal when he is already making over $7 million/season is a concern for the Jackets going forward. Something to watch.
- As always, there are a lot of rumors out there about potential trade bait. Ryan O’Reilly is a player Buffalo would like to move before his bonus payment on July 1, but doing so may require them accepting a lesser haul than they would get after July 1. After the second pick in the draft, it wouldn’t be a shock to see any team move down. Carolina is looking to move Jeff Skinner and, potentially, Elias Lindholm. Craig Anderson and, perhaps, Erik Karlsson could be on the move for Ottawa, which begs the question whether Matt Duchene might also be on the move again with only 1 year left on his deal on yet another team that doesn’t seem to be a contender. The Habs are looking to move Max Pacioretty, and also to finally get a second line center. So, could be a lot of busy real estate agents this weekend.
- Get ready for the annual Ilya Kovalchuk tease. Los Angeles and Vegas seem to be the leaders, but you should probably expect him to sign with a Russian team when it is all said and done because that’s how he rolls.
Nick and Connor rambled about the remaining weeks of the regular season, who will finish last in the NHL, if Boston can catch Tampa, Columbus’s hot streak and more. They also previewed and predicted eight of the NHL’s annual awards. Anze Kopitar has 86 points on the season– get it right, Nick.
The Carolina Hurricanes are looking for a new general manager and Nick would like to be considered for the job. Meanwhile, Connor’s riding the hype train that is the Arizona Coyotes (and Florida Panthers, you know for their more realistic postseason expectations). Oh yeah, Petr Mrazek is not a good starter. Also the current playoff format is still bad.
Today– Monday, February 26, 2018 for those of you who have yet to look at a calendar– is the annual NHL Trade Deadline. All 31 NHL teams have until 3:00p ET to get their trade calls into the league office before they can get approved (or rejected).
@connorzkeith and I are tackling the challenge of updating this here DTFR Trade Deadline Live Blog while also writing quick recaps and analysis for every trade that occurs.
So gather around your TVs, phones, laptops, tablets or whatever let’s you refresh Twitter all day and chill with us as we all try to survive the inevitable
Ottawa Senators-Erik Karlsson debacle madness that is the 2018 NHL Trade Deadline.
DTFR Top-10 Best Available Players to Acquire
- D Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators (27)
D Ryan McDonagh, New York Rangers (28)TRADED TO TB LW Evander Kane, Buffalo Sabres (26)TRADED TO SJ LW Patrick Maroon, Edmonton Oilers (29)TRADED TO NJ
- C/LW Max Domi, Arizona Coyotes (22)
- LW Max Pacioretty, Montreal Canadiens (29)
- LW Jeff Skinner, Carolina Hurricanes (25)
- C/LW Zack Smith, Ottawa Senators (29)
- RW Mats Zuccarello, New York Rangers (30)
- D Mike Green, Detroit Red Wings (32)
In the first deal of the day, the Columbus Blue Jackets acquired D Ian Cole from the Ottawa Senators in exchange for a 3rd round pick in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft and F Nick Moutrey. MORE
The Chicago Blackhawks traded F Ryan Hartman and a 5th round pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft to the Nashville Predators in exchange for F Victor Edjsell, a 1st round pick and a 4th round pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft. MORE
F Paul Stastny was traded by the St. Louis Blues to the Winnipeg Jets in exchange for F Erik Foley, a 2018 1st round pick and a conditional 4th round pick in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft. MORE
D Philip Holm was traded by the Vancouver Canucks to the Vegas Golden Knights in exchange for F Brendan Leipsic. MORE
Columbus acquired F Ryan Kujawinski from the Arizona Coyotes in exchange for F Jordan Maletta. MORE
The San Jose Sharks acquired F Evander Kane from the Buffalo Sabres in exchange for F Danny O’Regan, a conditional 2019 1st round pick and a conditional 2019 4th round pick. MORE
F Jason Chimera was traded to the Anaheim Ducks by the New York Islanders in exchange for F Chris Wagner. MORE
The Columbus Blue Jackets acquired F Thomas Vanek from the Vancouver Canucks in exchange for F Tyler Motte and F Jussi Jokinen. MORE
The Carolina Hurricanes traded F Josh Jooris to the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for F Greg McKegg. MORE
F Tomas Tatar was traded to the Vegas Golden Knights by the Detroit Red Wings in exchange for a 2018 1st round pick, a 2019 2nd round pick and a 2021 3rd round pick. MORE
The Tampa Bay Lightning have acquired D Ryan McDonagh and F J.T. Miller from the New York Rangers in exchange for F Vladislav Namestnikov, F Brett Howden, D Libor Hajek, a 2018 1st round pick and a conditional 2nd round pick in 2019. MORE
The Ottawa Senators traded F Nick Shore to the Calgary Flames in exchange for a 2019 7th round pick. MORE
Winnipeg acquired D Joe Morrow from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for a 2018 4th round pick. MORE
F Patrick Maroon was traded by the Edmonton Oilers to the New Jersey Devils in exchange for F J.D. Dudek and a 2019 3rd round pick. MORE
Montreal acquired D Mike Reilly from the Minnesota Wild in exchanged for a 5th round pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft (via Washington). MORE
Columbus sent F Carter Camper to Arizona for future considerations. MORE
The Boston Bruins acquired F Tommy Wingels from the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for a conditional 5th round pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. MORE
The Colorado Avalanche traded D Chris Bigras to the New York Rangers in exchange for D Ryan Graves. MORE
Arizona acquired F Pierre-Cedric Labrie, D Trevor Murphy and F Derek Army from Nashville for F Tyler Gaudet and D John Ramage. MORE