Tag Archives: Jakub Zboril

Numbers Game: Boston Bruins 2017-2018 Projected Stats

Let’s ignore the first two games of the season that the Boston Bruins have already played and reset the clock to zero, because here’s a look at what is (was?) to be expected heading into this season for every player on the Bruins*.

*With some exceptions of course.

Unknown-7After being eliminated by the Ottawa Senators in the First Round of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Boston is looking for a deeper playoff run on the wings of the experience gained from those six extra games in April for David Pastrnak and the rest of their young crew.

Gut feeling dictates that Pastrnak and Brad Marchand will be as much of an offensive force as they were last season for Boston heading into this season, but what does the forecasting function in Microsoft Excel have to say about any of those bold predictions from this offseason on our podcast or otherwise?

As is tradition, my Bruins projections are presented below based on how every player on the roster has performed in their career leading up to this season. Players that have yet to play a game a regular season NHL game are not included in this first round of projections (denoted with “N/A” in most columns), but their stats will be included and accounted for about a quarter of the way through the regular season (roughly 20 games).

Yes, Charlie McAvoy played in the playoffs last season, but the fact of the matter is there is no true way to measure how his regular season will go based off of six career playoff games, wherein the pace of the game and many other variables are inherently different from regular season game-flow.

Or just give me some more time to come up with an excuse a more viable solution for projecting rookie’s stats prior to them taking the ice for the first time at the NHL level.

Sample size must always be kept in mind when glancing over these projections. A player who’s never played more than three career games (like Tommy Cross, for example) will reflect a tremendous value in projected assists if they’ve recorded even just one assist (again, like Providence Bruins all-time leader in games played, Tommy Cross) in those three games. This will fluctuate pending more appearances and/or throughout the season on its own (usually in the downward trend, unless said AHL player cracks the NHL roster full-time).

But for all the jokes, Tommy Cross is an excellent depth-defenseman/top-pair defenseman in the AHL to have. Shouts to him.

Additionally, please remember that my degree is in communication, not math, so I am by no means a wizard with numbers in Microsoft Excel and I’m sure my Corsi is terrible. Plus, you’re probably not a front office member or anyone who might have some credibility for statistical reasoning and advanced stats analysis in hockey, so take everything with a grain of salt before you complain that math is ruining “your” sport.

Unless you are some Corsi-god/NHL front office member and you’ve stumbled upon this, in which case, let’s start over. Hello, please ignore the last paragraph, my name is Nick and I’d like a job. Thanks.


On offense, the usual suspects for the Boston Bruins will remain the core components that push the team forward night-in and night-out. Patrice Bergeron should amass another 60-plus point season after having a “down year” last season with only 53 points in 2016-2017.

Pastrnak will lead the Bruins in points according to the latest models with 31-33-64 totals.

While Brad Marchand’s expected 31-29-60 totals this season rank fourth on the team’s projected scoring leaders behind Pastrnak (64), David Krejci (63) and Bergeron (62), it’s easy to imagine Marchand improving from his career best 39 goals, 46 assists (85 points) season last season and shattering his season-entering projections.

Gut Feeling 2.0 seems to point in the direction of Marchand leading in points, based off of last season, and Pastrnak leading in goals (as is shown in these numbers with Pastrnak and Marchand tied for the lead on the Bruins roster with 31 projected goals each this season).

Matt Beleskey and Frank Vatrano should each right their ships this season coming off of not-so-easy to return from leg injuries last season. Beleskey’s expected 14-16-30 totals would rank as his 3rd best season in his NHL career– with room to gain more ground– since appearing in two games with the Anaheim Ducks in 2008-2009.

Meanwhile, Vatrano (29 points projected in 2017-18), barring another injury, should finally partake in a full-season and become the glue-guy on the third line that he’s been expected to become after being a goal-a-game AHL player in his short career with Providence.

The Boston blue line looks retooled, restocked and ready to go.

Gone are John-Michael Liles, Colin Miller and Joe Morrow; in are the likes of Charlie McAvoy and Paul Postma. Liles has moved on to become a TV analyst for Altitude and Colorado Avalanche broadcasts while still technically an unrestricted free agent. Colin Miller was claimed by the Vegas Golden Knights at the 2017 Expansion Draft and Morrow signed with the rival Montreal Canadiens this offseason after not being tendered a qualifying offer.

McAvoy’s rookie season numbers will come fruition in the next 20 games or so, please give some time for an update on his projections, but until then, know this– he’s the real deal.

Nobody can possibly be the next Bobby Orr for Boston, since there’s only one Bobby Orr after all, but McAvoy likes to move the puck like Orr once did for the Bruins in the late 1960s and 1970s. And McAvoy’s got a tough element to his game too, like legendary Bruins defenseman, Eddie Shore, McAvoy can hit.

Postma is mainly an afterthought, but provides much needed depth for the long run.

Brandon Carlo looks to make an impact in his sophomore season and should continue to absorb any and all knowledge from 40-year-old captain, Zdeno Chara, as a shut-down pair. Yes, Chara is still a good defenseman. He’ll max out around 40 points this season with Carlo carrying more weight and the Bruins offense doing their part in keeping the puck out of the defensive zone to begin with.

Meanwhile, Torey Krug should an average year with 10 goals and 35 assists (45 points). Even an average year for Krug is still a better year than most defensemen.

And in other news, Tuukka Rask is still the number one goaltender for obvious reasons. He’s good.

More on Boston’s goalies as a whole in later posts throughout the season.

For now, Bruce Cassidy‘s Bruins are ready to fly– mostly because of Cassidy’s coaching style that emphasizes going full throttle all the time and not because bears have sprouted wings or anything.

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Down the Frozen River Podcast #74- Participation Trophies After One Game (Part II)

Jaromir Jagr signed with the Calgary Flames this week, the regular season started (though the Pittsburgh Penguins might not have been told yet that the games matter now) and former players tend to be GMs in the NHL, the Original Trio confirms. Also, we gave participation trophies without even watching the rest of the season for the second year in a row.

Listen to this week’s podcast on our Libsyn page (and/or on your favorite podcast listening app that snags our RSS Feed).

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

The First Round of the 2015 NHL Entry Draft (a Recap)

By: Nick Lanciani

2015 NHL Entry Draft

  1. Edmonton Oilers C Connor McDavid, Erie (OHL)
  2. Buffalo Sabres C Jack Eichel, Boston University (Hockey East)
  3. Arizona Coyotes C Dylan Strome, Erie (OHL)
  4. Toronto Maple Leafs C Mitch Marner, London (OHL)
  5. Carolina Hurricanes D Noah Hanifin, Boston College (Hockey East)
  6. New Jersey Devils C Pavel Zacha, Sarnia (OHL)
  7. Philadelphia Flyers D Ivan Provorov, Brandon (WHL)
  8. Columbus Blue Jackets D Zach Werenski, Michigan University (BIG10)
  9. San Jose Sharks RW Timo Meier, Halifax (QMJHL)
  10. Colorado Avalanche RW Mikko Rantanen, TPS (FIN)
  11. Florida Panthers LW Lawson Crouse, Kingston (OHL)
  12. Dallas Stars RW Denis Guryanov, Ladia Togliatti (MHL)
  13. Boston Bruins (from LA) D Jakub Zboril, Saint John (QMJHL)
  14. Boston Bruins LW Jake DeBrusk, Swift Current (WHL)
  15. Boston Bruins (from CGY) RW Zach Senyshyn, Sault St. Marie (OHL)
  16. New York Islanders (from PIT via EDM) C Mathew Barzal, Seattle (WHL)
  17. Winnipeg Jets LW Kyle Connor, Youngstown (USHL)
  18. Ottawa Senators D Thomas Chabot, Saint John (QMJHL)
  19. Detroit Red Wings LW Evgeny Svechnikov, Cape Breton (QMJHL)
  20. Minnesota Wild C Joel Eriksson Ek, Farjestad (SWE)
  21. Ottawa Senators (from NYI via BUF) C Colin White, USA U18 (USHL) 
  22. Washington Capitals G Ilya Samsonov, Magnitorgotrsk (MHL)
  23. Vancouver Canucks RW Brock Boeser, Waterloo (USHL)
  24. Philadelphia Flyers (from NSH via TOR) C/RW Travis Konecny, Ottawa (OHL)
  25. Winnipeg Jets (from STL via BUF) F Jack Roslovic, USA U18 (USHL)
  26. Montreal Canadiens D Noah Juulsen, Everett (WHL)
  27. Anaheim Ducks D Jacob Larsson, Frolunda Jr. (SWE-JR)
  28. New York Islanders (from NYR via TB) LW Anthony Beauvillier, Sherwinigan (OHL)
  29. Columbus Blue Jackets (from TB via PHI and TOR) D Gabriel Carlsson, Linkoping, Jr. (SWE-JR)
  30. Arizona Coyotes (from CHI) C/RW Nicholas Merkley, Kelowna (WHL)

Pre Draft Trades

  • The Buffalo Sabres acquired G Robin Lehner and F David Legwand from the Ottawa Senators for the 21st overall pick in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft.
  • The Boston Bruins traded D Dougie Hamilton to the Calgary Flames for the 15th, 45th, and 52nd overall picks in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft.
  • The Los Angeles Kings acquired F Milan Lucic from the Boston Bruins for the 13th overall pick, G Martin Jones, and D Colin Miller. Boston retained $2.7 million of Lucic’s salary.

Trades Made During the Draft

  • The Buffalo Sabres acquired F Ryan O’Reilly and F Jamie McGinn from the Colorado Avalanche for F Mikhail Grigorenko, D Nikita Zadorov, and F J.T. Compher and the 31st overall pick.
  •  The Edmonton Oilers trade the 16th and 33rd overall picks to the New York Islanders for D Griffin Reinhart.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs sent the 24th overall pick to the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for the 29th and 61st overall picks.
  • The Tampa Bay Lightning swapped the 28th overall pick with the New York Islanders for the 33rd and 72nd overall picks.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs sent the 29th overall pick to the Columbus Blue Jackets for the 34th and 68th overall picks.
  • The Anaheim Ducks acquired the 41st overall pick and a 2016 draft pick from the New Jersey Devils for Kyle Palmieri.

2015 Mock NHL Entry Draft

By: Nick Lanciani


1. Edmonton Oilers
                                                  C Connor McDavid, Erie (OHL)200px-Logo_Edmonton_Oilers.svg

Peter Chiarelli’s reign as GM of the Oilers begins with one of the most hyped turnarounds in hockey. Chiarelli’s leadership, combined with whatever decisions he makes in the offseason and drafting McDavid has talk of the Oilers making the playoffs, if not next season, then in the near future. A lot nearer than before. McDavid’s the best, period.

2. Buffalo Sabres                                                       C Jack Eichel, Boston University (H-East)Buffalo Sabres Logo

Eichel forgives Sabres GM, Tim Murray, on the stage with a professional handshake and is reunited (?- although they were never separated in the first place) with Evan Rodrigues. It’s possible that both make the roster on the same line.

3. Arizona Coyotes                                                    C Dylan Strome, Erie (OHL)Arizona_Coyotes.svg

Big, strong, great skating abilities- Strome is NHL ready as the plethora of talent youth in the desert continues to grow, that is unless they trade this pick. No matter the owner of the 3rd overall pick in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, Strome is a first choice franchise changer. While McDavid and Eichel overshadow him in the leadup to the Draft, Strome finds his niche and competes next season for the Calder.

4. Toronto Maple Leafs                                             D Noah Hanifin, Boston College (H-East)Unknown-3

Mike Babcock and Noah Hanifin make their Toronto debuts as legendary head coach, and potential NHL superstar defenseman, respectively in none other than the biggest market in the NHL. Hanifin is the best defenseman in the draft and Maple Leafs fans are going to love him (more than Dion Phaneuf!).

5. Carolina Hurricanes                                              C Mitchell Marner, London (OHL)Carolina Hurricanes Logo

This guy is a really skilled playmaker with 128 assists and 185 points in 127 career OHL games. He’s drawn comparisons to Patrick Kane and Jordan Eberle, with great vision and passing skills. Not a steal of the draft, but a great player to draft.

6. New Jersey Devils                                                 C Pavel Zacha, Sarnia (OHL)New Jersey Devils Logo

He effortlessly transitioned from the Czech Republic to North America. He’s 6’3”, 210 pounds, and can play a two way game. Think of him as this year’s bigger version of Boston’s David Pastrnak, if that suffices your hopes. Zacha could be the centerpiece to the Devils rebuild and Ray Shero’s master plan.

7. Philadelphia Flyers                                                 LW Lawson Crouse, Kingston (OHL)Philadelphia Flyers Logo

6’4”, 211 pounds, and a physical force on the ice, Crouse brings a much needed power forward caliber to the Flyers lineup and adds size to their roster. Actually, he fits the Philadelphia style perfectly, big and tough.

8. Columbus Blue Jackets                                         D Ivan Provorov, Brandon (WHL)Columbus Blue Jackets Logo

Extraordinary at the 2015 World Junior Championship for Finland- 6’4”, 209 lbs, effective on the power-play, and difficult to move off the puck. Has hockey sense and hands that supplement his shot. Next to Hanifin, he’s one of the best defensemen of the draft. Columbus fans should get used to seeing Jack Johnson pair up with Provorov in the future.

9. San Jose Sharks                                                     D Zachary Werenski, Michigan (BIG10)Unknown-3

The youngest player in NCAA history joins the youth movement in San Jose. He can block shots and adjust on the fly. He’s got some size to work with at 6’2”, 206 lbs. Werenski was named to the All-Big Ten Hockey First Team and the All-Big Ten Freshman Team this season.

10. Colorado Avalanche                                             RW Mikko Rantanen, TPS (FIN)Colorado Avalanche Logo

He’s a big power forward that will provide some oomph in the Avalanche’s otherwise soft lineup. Rantanen’s a decent skater for his age and should be a part of Colorado’s retooling, as they gear up to avoid another disappointing season like this past season. Signing Carl Soderberg and trading Ryan O’Reilly for valuable parts will help put them in position for being a playoff contending team in 2015-2016.

11. Florida Panthers                                                   C Mathew Barzal, Seattle (WHL)Unknown-2

Offensively minded, Barzal was injured for a lot of WHL action. The Panthers luck out on a player that just may be able to make those around him better. He’s a 5’11”, 175-pound right shot forward with vision, playmaking skills, and had 12-45-57 totals in 44 games. Barzal also scored 4 times in 6 WHL playoff games.

12. Dallas Stars                                                           RW Timo Meier, Halifax (QMJHL)Unknown-5

Scored 44 goals in 61 games for Halifax this season. He can also be a playmaker as he had 46 assists this year too. Oh and he’s 6’1”, 209 lbs. Meier is exactly the player you want to covet if you are the Stars looking for substantial youth to build around.

13. Los Angeles Kings                                                LW Kyle Connor, Youngstown (USHL)Unknown

6’1”, 177 pounds, led the USHL in scoring with 80 points. His 34 goals ranked fourth in the USHL, with 9 game-winning goals and 32 points on the power play. Connor’s got quickness and hands that can do things with the puck on his stick.

14. Boston Bruins                                                        C Travis Konecny, Ottawa (OHL)Unknown

His second half of the regular season in the OHL really displayed his skill level. With that said, his size isn’t much of an issue as his compete level and willingness is unmatched- and so is his work ethic. Had 29-39-68 totals in 60 games with the 67’s this season. Despite needing defense, the Bruins go with something else they need- offense.

15. Calgary Flames                                                      D Jakub Zboril, Saint John (QMJHL)Calgary Flames Logo

Zboril plays a willingly physical game despite only being 6’1”, 184 lbs. His shot from the point could come in handy on the power play. In general, he adds versatility to Calgary’s defense and the Flames walk away filling exactly what they need, some future youth on the blueline.

16. Edmonton Oilers (from PIT)                                    D Oliver Kylington, AIK (SWE-2)200px-Logo_Edmonton_Oilers.svg

Kylington is a two-way defenseman that with proper development can fully utilize his skill set. Edmonton adds valuable youth to their blue line as their forwards continue to gain experience and begin carrying more of their weight. Likewise, they need a replacement for the deadline deal that sent Jeff Petry to Montreal. Looks like Peter Chiarelli’s still looking for a defenseman after all.

17. Winnipeg Jets                                                         C/RW Nicholas Merkely, Kelowna (WHL)Unknown-3

Merkely’s a great playmaker that knows how to crash the net with precision and skill. He also has a great hockey IQ that makes up for some lacking physical qualities in his game. Strong on the power play and spectacular on the penalty kill, Merkely brings a tremendous compete level and had 20-70-90 totals in Kelowna.

18. Ottawa Senators                                                     C Colin White, USA U18 (USHL)Unknown-2

Can’t go wrong with one of the best skaters in the draft. The Senators pick a forward that can move with the puck and carry it defiantly out of his own zone with ease. It also helps that he’s physically difficult to knock off the puck. He’s been compared to Patrice Bergeron and might be this year’s steal of the draft. White pays excellent attention to detail and wearing the opponent down by out playing his opponent all over the ice.

19. Detroit Red Wings                                                   LW Evgeny Svechnikov, Cape Breton (QMJHL)Unknown-1

He’s a big power forward that will bring some physicality to the Red Wings lineup. Svechnikov made a seemless transition to North American play, leading QMJHL rookie’s with 78 points in 55 games. This 6’2”, 199-pound left-winger is too tough to pass on and draws comparisons to another Evgeni- Malkin, that is.

20. Minnesota Wild                                                        D Brandon Carlo, Tri-City (WHL)Unknown-4

The 6’5”, 196 lb. defenseman brings size and athleticism as a shutdown defenseman. He’s definitely more defensive minded, but that fits with Minnesota given the mindset behind Ryan Suter and Jonas Brodin, among others. Did I mention he’s huge? Again, shutdown. Adds enough of a physical element to go deeper in the playoffs.

21. Buffalo Sabres (from NYI)                                        G Mackenzie Blackwood, Barrie (OHL)Unknown-3

The Sabres are daring enough to take a chance at drafting a goalie in the 1st Round, given their numerous selections. While they skip over Ilya Samsonov, they go with the 6’4”, 215 lbs, Colts starter who had a 3.01 GAA in 51 games played with Barrie. The upside is that Blackwood’s a big goalie, fitting recent trends, the downside is that Buffalo still needs a goalie for the looming season.

22. Washington Capitals                                               LW Paul Bittner, Portland (WHL)Washington Capitals Logo

At 6’4”, 205 lbs. this LW adds some much needed size on a transitioning Capitals roster. He’s a power forward that’s willing to be the first to rush in on a dump and chase, which fits in well with Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson, and Evgeny Kuznetsov. Adding his size and aggression makes Washington a tougher team to play against.

23. Vancouver Canucks                                                D Gabriel Carlsson, Linkoping Jr. (SWE-JR)Unknown-1

6’4”, 183-pounds, this left-shot defenseman is big and intelligent for his position. He’s a stay at home defenseman. Carlsson uses his size and strength as well as you need him to. He’s not an immediate replacement for Dan Hamhuis or Kevin Bieksa, but is ready to be the plan for the Canuck’s life after one or the other. Carlsson also has a reliable reach, given his height and nature of play.

24. Toronto Maple Leafs (from NSH)                             D Thomas Chabot, Saint John (QMJHL)Unknown-3

6’1”, 181 lbs. Smart transitional skating defenseman that can handle pressure in getting the puck out of his own zone- he’s a natural fit in Toronto’s energetic, young, roster. Mike Babcock will be able to manage his defensemen just fine with the Maple Leafs stockpiling on the blueline as a result of this draft.

25. Winnipeg Jets (from STL via BUF)                           C Joel Eriksson Ek, Farjestad (SWE)Unknown-3

Eriksson Ek is a 6’2”, 180 pound, left handed shot that is strong on faceoffs and plays a two way game. He brings size down the middle for the Jets, a much-needed commodity, and has great vision. Eriksson Ek was ranked 4th overall on the NHL Central Scouting’s final ranking of European skaters.

26. Montreal Canadiens                                                D Jacob Larsson, Frolunda Jr. (SWE-JR)Unknown

6’2”, 191 lbs. Sweden knows how to make solid defensemen and Montreal begins to replenish their defensive prospects, given how their current blueline is aging. Larsson reads situations well and controls the puck excellently. While he transitions well, Larsson will need to put a bit more muscle on him before seeing full time NHL action.

27. Anaheim Ducks                                                        RW Brock Boeser, Waterloo (USHL)Unknown

Boeser is a two-way forward that was tied for first in the United States Hockey League with 35 goals and 32 points on the power play in 57 regular season games. The 6-foot, 191-pound, winger was named to the USHL All-Rookie Team and All-USHL First Team. Boeser will need to refine some elements of his game, but looks to continue to develop appropriately at the University of North Dakota this fall.

28. Tampa Bay Lightning (from NYR)                            RW Daniel Sprong, Charlottetown (QMJHL)Unknown-1

Sprong is a nifty playmaker with good hands and great speed, but he’ll need to get stronger to make the transition to the NHL and add grit to his already impressive offensive game. His 270 shots on goal were the 10th most in the QMJHL, so he likes to shoot with impressive accuracy and a quick release.

29. Philadelphia Flyers (from TB)                                   LW Jake DeBrusk, Swift Current (WHL)Philadelphia Flyers Logo

DeBrusk is always following the puck, whether it’s on the forecheck or forcing turnovers. He can be excellent on the power play, focused on moving the puck where it needs to go and scoring. DeBrusk had 120 points in 144 games over two seasons with Swift Current and his tenacity is astounding. He might also bring some physicality to Philly, at 6’4”, 174 pounds, which is much appreciated by their fans who cherish hard working, tough, players.

30. Arizona Coyotes (from CHI)                                     C Filip Chlapik, Charlottetown (QMJHL)Arizona_Coyotes.svg

Positioning is one of Chlapik’s best assets, whether it’s with or without the puck, he goes to the right places. Smooth skating, with vision, he’s pretty decent all around as a 6’1”, 196-pound center. He was tied for the lead among QMJHL rookies with 33 goals in 64 games played. His impressive 33-42-75 totals help supplement his case as a first rounder. Chlapik also won 48.8% of his faceoffs in a solid transition from the Czech Republic to the North American style of the game.

*Barring any trades, this is how I see it progressing, but I’d like to see a lot of trades just to destroy my mock draft picks, like how someone always destroys any bracket I’ve ever made for any sport.

Other Prospects To Watch For

RW Michael Spacek, Pardubice (CZREP)

C Nicolas Roy, Chicoutimi (QMJHL)NHL Logo

C Jansen Harkins, Prince George (WHL)

LW Jordan Greenway, USA U18 (USHL)

D, Jeremy Roy, Sherbrooke (QMJHL)

G, Ilya Samsonov, Magnitorgorsk (MHL)

RW, Denis Gurianov (MHL)