Nick and Connor breakdown the news and notes from the latest week in the NHL leading up to the 2018 NHL All-Star break. Mike Smith is going back to the All-Star Game and we’re celebrating with #DTFRMissionAccomplished.
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Skater of the Week: Mathew Barzal
These bye-weeks are making things weird.
Barzal gets the nod for this week’s award having only played one game during that span. But what a game it was.
Helping his Islanders to a 7-2 rout of the rival Rangers, young Barzal tallied his second five-point game of his breakout rookie campaign with two goals and three helpers. Perhaps more amazing is the fact that all five points were scored at even-strength, no power play help needed. This also landed Barzal a perfect +5 rating for the night, to go along with a .5 shooting percentage and even tallying the official game-winning goal (probably not worth much in a rout, but it pads the stats all the same).
With 44 points in 44 games to this point in the season, Barzal continues to make a very strong case for a Calder Trophy nod come season’s end.
Tendy of the Week: Mike Smith
Posting a perfect 3-0-0 record this week on the strength of just four goals allowed in those contests to rack up a .963 save percentage and a GAA just a smidge over 1.30, Smith has his Calgary Flames scorching. (Pun entirely intended)
Smith started the week stopping 33-of-35 shots faced in an overtime victory against the Wild, before nullifying 33-of-34 against the league-leading Lightning and 38-of-39 against Carolina to extend his winning streak to six games.
Calgary went out and got Smith to fill the one glaring weakness they felt they had, and if he can keep this level of play up, they could be deadly.
Game of the Week: Boston Bruins 4 vs Montreal Canadiens 3 (SO), Saturday January 13th, 2018
The 739th all-time meeting between the Original Six arch-rivals had a little something extra to offer, as it was the first meeting of the two squads since Claude Julien‘s firing from Boston and hiring by Montreal late last season. A little bit of extra hype that this tilt ended up living up to.
In total this one saw seven goals, 62 shots, 77 hits, and two power play goals on five opportunities.
Max Pacioretty would get things rolling just 3:22 into the game, collecting the rebound from a deflected Victor Mete point shot and stuffing it just inside the near post behind Tuukka Rask to give the Habs the early advantage. Most of the first period would then pass by with little affair until Brad Marchand would streak in on the back door and receive a gorgeous Patrice Bergeron centering feed from the far board and bury it top shelf to even the score at the 17:40 mark on the power play, and the two teams would carry the 1-1 score into the first intermission.
The second period would see things really open up, starting with a Jake DeBrusk breakaway tally just 2:55 into the frame. Charlie McAvoy caught the Montreal defense standing still and fed a gorgeous tape-to-tape pass to a streaking DeBrusk who made no mistake en route to his 10th goal of the year. Just 2:50 later, though, Nic Deslauriers would pounce on a Zdeno Chara turnover at center ice and streak past the stumbling Boston captain into the high slot, where he would unleash a laser of a wrist shot past the blocker of Tuukka Rask to draw his Habs back even. Then just 3:06 later Montreal would retake the lead on the power play, as Alex Galchenyuk would receive a cross-ice pass from Jonathan Drouin, take a couple strides towards the net, and absolutely smoke a wrist shot over the shoulder of Tuukka Rask into the top of the net to put his team up 3-2. The Bruins controlled a lot of the play throughout the rest of the 2nd, but were met with some solid Carey Price saves at every opportunity until at the 17:42 mark David Krejci was able to corral a bouncing puck in the slot and wire it past a surprised Price and even the game at three heading into the second intermission.
The third period would see both teams register the most shots of any period (12 for Boston, 10 for Montreal), but strong play by both goaltenders (and a few clutch saves by the goalpost to the right of Rask) kept things knotted at three to end regulation and send the proceedings to three-on-three overtime. Montreal looked to have it won in the waning seconds when a Jakub Jerabek shot found it’s way up and over Rask, but a diving Torey Krug managed to bat the puck out of the blue paint before Pacioretty or Plekanec could get a stick on it.
So off to the shootout we went. Both Paul Byron and Jake DeBrusk would score in the first frame, but after that the two goaltenders shut things down for the remaining two shooters a side to force shootout overtime, where Rask would shut the door on Galchenyuk to allow Brad Marchand to streak in and bury the game-winner right through the five hole of Carey Price and directly into the hearts of the Montreal faithful.
News, Notes, & Nonsense:
I saved the Phillip Danault story from the Boston/Montreal game for this section, because it definitely deserves to be highlighted. Danault is reported to be doing alright and was released from the hospital Sunday after an overnight evaluation. The Habs forward took a Zdeno Chara slapshot off the side of the head in Saturday night’s contest, and was eventually stretchered off of the ice. A truly sombering scene in a very exciting contest, Chara was one of the first to Danault’s aid and appeared to apologize to him as he was loaded up and carried off the ice. Between this and the Girardi/Frk incident last week, I’m thinking maybe people should stop trying to block the hardest shots in the game with their faces.
Speaking of near-disasters, Milan Lucic came millimeters from life-threatening danger himself when he tangled with Golden Knights forward Tomas Nosek and, upon the two falling to the ice, had his neck cut by Nosek’s skate. The picture of the stitch job is pretty unnerving, and according to Lucic the cut was mere millimeters too shallow to open up his jugular vein.
One of the NHL’s most impressive streaks is coming to an end. After 830 consecutive games, Anaheim’s Andrew Cogliano will be forced to miss the next two contests after being suspended for a very-not legal hit on Kings forward Adrian Kempe. A very heated contest led to a lot of physicality, and the play was certainly very out of character for Cogliano, who sacrifices a streak that could have broken the NHL record next season had it continued.
The Vegas Golden Knights have formed their first rivalry, but not exactly the sort you’d expect. The United States Army has filed a copyright challenge to the franchise on the grounds that they already possessed the rights to the name ‘Golden Knights’ for its West Point parachute jump team. The franchise’s response? A spectacularly sarcastic tweet, obviously.
Jack Johnson has requested a trade out of Columbus. A pending UFA, it is generally believed that Johnson wants to be traded to a team where he will have a chance at seeing more playing time in an effort to raise his stock on the market, after seeing his minutes plummet in recent weeks. While many CBJ fans (myself included) hold ‘JMFJ’ in high regards as a person, trading the defender had become a very common topic in Columbus long before the player’s request, as his production has dipped significantly, highlighting his defensive shortcomings and bringing about the argument for his replacement by younger options within the CBJ system.
Tampa has lost star defender Victor Hedman for 3-6 weeks with a lower body injury. I’m pretty sure if they lost every game in that time they would still be like 4th in the league, but still, it’s a bummer.
Am I the only one who thinks these Olympic Games are actually gonna be pretty fun? As rosters get released, obviously the star power we’re used to isn’t there, but convince me that these lesser-known guys, most of them being players who probably never even dreamed they’d get this chance, aren’t going to play their absolute hearts out every single second of every single game. I think it’s gonna be great.
On a final note, we learned this week via Doc Emrick that Pierre McGuire has undergone successful surgery to remove a cancer-infected prostate. He is recovering and is hopeful to rejoin the broadcast team in time for the Olympics. Now I, like many, can admit to yelling at Pierre to stop yapping on about whatever ridiculous stat or story he knows about some third-line player on a team I don’t like, but I think I speak for everyone when I say that cancer should take a Chara slapshot to the mush and a few skates to its main artery. So get well, Pierre, Eddy-O and everyone else that has to fight this miserable disease.
As the calendar flips from 2017 to 2018 the NHL’s regular season keeps rolling along. Having played 40 games so far this season, the Boston Bruins are now in the midst of their bye week 2nd in the Atlantic Division (53 points)– ten points behind the Eastern Conference leading Tampa Bay Lightning.
Plenty of teams have been pleasant surprises, namely, the Vegas Golden Knights and the New Jersey Devils through the first half of the season. To say the Golden Knights are merely on a hot start is a major understatement– there’s a legitimate chance Vegas will not only make the playoffs, but compete with the Lightning and Winnipeg Jets in what’s shaping up to be a competitive three-way battle for the 2017-18 President’s Trophy.
Regardless, Boston has not been a pleasant surprise. No.
If you’ve been tracking Don Sweeney‘s every move since becoming general manager in 2015, then you aren’t surprised at all to see that this year’s Bruins squad is playing on another level and turning heads around the hockey world.
It’s a very methodic approach– one that takes its time while patience wears thin among fans that demand excellence every shift in the Hub– but the Boston Bruins are ready for a breakout performance in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs (barring a second half of the season collapse).
While many are busy trying to come up with a nickname for Boston’s fourth line of Tim Schaller, Sean Kuraly and Noel Acciari— I recommend either “The 50s Line” (since Schaller, Kuraly and Acciari wear No.’s 59, 52 and 55 respectively) or “The B52 Line” (an ode to the music group, sure, but also a nod to Kuraly’s stellar anchor as the center)– it’s a shame no one’s come up with anything for the legend that is the Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak line.
Usually it’s just “the Bergeron line”, but if you’ve seen the production from this line, you might just think back to the days of “The Uke Line”, “The Kraut Line” or “The Dynamite Line”– all of which were historic lines in Bruins franchise history.
Anyway, on with the show…
Through 40 games played this season, here’s a look at how every player on Boston’s roster should pan out for the remaining 42 games. Please remember my degree is in communication– not math– so any miscalculations are Microsoft Excel’s fault.
Boston Bruins Projections Through 40 Games (42 Games Remaining)
At this point in the season everything begins to look more realistic. Unless you’re still looking at Tommy Cross‘s projected stats. Again, that’s a product of forecasting a season for a player based on every career NHL game that player has played. Cross has yet to appear in an NHL game since the 2015-16 season; because of this, his numbers look more promising based on the formula alone than they actually probably would be, unless he knows something about his game we don’t.
Until a player like Cross (or other players with few career NHL games played) suits up in the 2017-18 season, that players numbers are reflective of a more “idealistic” season. In other words, it’s a pipe dream (until it actually happens).
The Bruins finally have a healthy lineup. Well, kind of.
Defenseman, Adam McQuaid, is still out after missing time due to a fractured right fibula. Upon his imminent return, who exactly should Bruce Cassidy pull out of the lineup, if anyone?
Matt Grzelcyk‘s emerged from the shadows of the last couple of seasons– in which he made his professional debut and NHL debut. He’s solidified himself as a top-6 defenseman, capable of earning his ice time and/or McQuaid’s job at less than half the price (at least until this offseason, when Grzelyck’s entry-level contract is set to expire).
Grzelyck, 24, is seven-years younger than McQuaid and could provide the same amount of offensive production or more down the road. By default, Grzelcyk’s offensive game is better than McQuaid’s this season.
Of course, there’s some things working in McQuaid’s favor in his ability to block shots, use his body and throw punches when “the code of hockey” needs to be enforced.
Though, again, there is a younger blue liner– albeit by a year and at $250,000 less– that could carry the weight of the tough guy on Boston’s defense. That guy is Kevan Miller, 30, who’s having what’s poised to equal or surpass his career year of 2015-16 in points (18), while teaching Grzelyck the ways of a bottom-pair defenseman.
Brandon Carlo has yet to score this season and is– by all considerations– in a sophomore slump. But he is only 21-years-old and destined to solidify as a top-4 defenseman in his career. He’s no Charlie McAvoy, but it wouldn’t make sense to punish a young player for showing his youth in his errors that he’s made at times through the year.
Before you know it, McQuaid could be the next Paul Postma on the Bruins as another healthy scratch on a night-to-night basis– though providing much needed depth when one of the regular guys goes down with an injury.
The Bruins have a plus-29 goal differential after 40 games this season, which is seven more than they had at the end of last season.
It seems promising that Boston will continue to only get better offensively down the stretch with David Pastrnak seeking to best his career high in assists while amassing almost 70 points on the season. That’s just 1/3 of the Bergeron line.
Brad Marchand should easily reach the 70-point plateau for not only the second time in his career– but the second year in a row– as Patrice Bergeron continues to swing the momentum around in his scoring projections (expected to surpass at least 60 points this season).
Rookies Jake DeBrusk and Danton Heinen will each have respectable numbers that should flirt with the 50-point plateau. DeBrusk may only end up with 20-26-46 totals, but Heinen should continue to charge down the stretch reaching 22-43–65 totals in his own spectacular rookie season.
It’s not Earth-shattering by any means, but it is highly underrated. Especially with a guy like David Backes on the same line.
Backes, in his own right, is bringing some extra bang for his buck this season. Having missed almost half of the season with diverticulitis and recovering from the surgical removal of part of his colon, Backes is lighter and better than ever.
And one more thing for the haters…
Tuukka Rask is back. This could be a Vezina Trophy winning season, if not more, for the Finnish goaltender.
The 2017-2018 regular season is rolling along as American Thanksgiving is once again upon us and everyone’s freaking out about some of the teams that are in playoff position (like Vegas) or not (like NYR) and all that stuff about “teams that are in the playoff picture by Thanksgiving traditionally make the playoffs based on stats”.
I’m as much of a stats fan as the next guy, but in today’s NHL, parity is unpredictable. There are some false positives in the playoff picture right now as there are equally some teams that we all thought would be dominating the Pacific Division currently– I’m looking at you, Edmonton Oilers.
Alas, the Boston Bruins find themselves in fourth place in the Atlantic Division as they are about to chow down on some turkey, quinoa and whatever else I’m sure Zdeno Chara is probably cooking up for them because if you haven’t already heard, his diet is better than Tom Brady’s*.
*I don’t actually stand by this claim, Mr. Brady. You’re still the GOAT.
Boston is one point away from tying the Detroit Red Wings in points, but would leap over them for sole position of third place in the division if the B’s tied Detroit, given the Bruins have a game-in-hand on the Red Wings currently. Likewise, if Boston added two points outright, they’d surpass Detroit (because that’s how the whole “2 points for a win, 1 point for an overtime/shootout loss and no points for a regulation loss” thing works).
Please remember that my degree is in communication– not math– so any miscalculations are Microsoft Excel’s fault.
Without further ado and to give you something to talk about at the dinner table while you stuff your face with sweet potatoes, here’s a look at how every player on the Bruins should pan out as the team has now played 20 games this season.
Boston Bruins Projections Through 20 Games (62 Games Remaining)
Keep in mind, young guys like Anders Bjork, Matt Grzelcyk and others will even out in some of their individual stats with more games under their feet. Bjork probably won’t have 15 points on the power play, but that’s just what the formula in Microsoft Excel shows until he gets another 10 or 20 games in his system.
Guys like Grzelcyk and Rob O’Gara, while they’ve played games over a couple of seasons, are like Bjork according to the formula in that their total number of career games means just about the same as one season (or more accurately, 16 games so far) of Bjork. And obviously Tommy Cross is Tommy Cross.
Like Jordan Szwarz, Cross doesn’t have a huge sample of career games played and there haven’t been plenty of appearances since his last game at the NHL level (though Szwarz actually filled in for nine games while David Krejci, Ryan Spooner and David Backes were out with injuries).
Thankfully Spooner is back and can start racking up assists, while Krejci can settle in with Jake DeBrusk pulling his weight as a rookie.
Hopefully Peter Cehlarik continues to be making claim for a longer stay with the big league club instead of going back to the Providence Bruins like he did last season after making his NHL debut, because his play with and without the puck has certainly been impressive– aside from the clear chemistry he has with David Krejci.
Patrice Bergeron has improved since his lower body injury forced him out of the lineup, but he’s still looking at an “off” year for the next 62 games ahead. That’s right, a bad year for Bergeron is still worth 60 points in scoring.
Whenever Brad Marchand returns from the IR, he should be just fine.
And it should be rather transparent, but David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy are incredible stars on this team. So there’s that.
Finally, there’s no goaltending controversy with the black and gold. Tuukka Rask should rebound, but you’d be crazy not to ride the back of Anton Khudobin while he’s been on fire lately.
Rask is best kept between 45 and 58 games in a season, so if Khudobin can keep up his current play for another 10 games or so before returning to his usual backup status, that should buy Rask plenty of time to recover from overworking the last three seasons (or more, probably more). Play Khudobin until he burns out, but hope he can take off almost 30 games from Rask’s workload compared to the last couple of seasons.
If you’re interested, here’s a look at how the Bruins should have been doing entering the 2017-2018 regular season.
Nick and Connor recap the 2017 SAP NHL Global Series, talk transactions and go long about the Boston Bruins. Additionally, the guys discussed the Radko Gudas incident and never actually say how much time he should be sitting out for his shenanigans.
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Let’s ignore the first two games of the season that the Boston Bruins have already played and reset the clock to zero, because here’s a look at what is (was?) to be expected heading into this season for every player on the Bruins*.
*With some exceptions of course.
After being eliminated by the Ottawa Senators in the First Round of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Boston is looking for a deeper playoff run on the wings of the experience gained from those six extra games in April for David Pastrnak and the rest of their young crew.
Gut feeling dictates that Pastrnak and Brad Marchand will be as much of an offensive force as they were last season for Boston heading into this season, but what does the forecasting function in Microsoft Excel have to say about any of those bold predictions from this offseason on our podcast or otherwise?
As is tradition, my Bruins projections are presented below based on how every player on the roster has performed in their career leading up to this season. Players that have yet to play a game a regular season NHL game are not included in this first round of projections (denoted with “N/A” in most columns), but their stats will be included and accounted for about a quarter of the way through the regular season (roughly 20 games).
Yes, Charlie McAvoy played in the playoffs last season, but the fact of the matter is there is no true way to measure how his regular season will go based off of six career playoff games, wherein the pace of the game and many other variables are inherently different from regular season game-flow.
Or just give me some more time to come up with an excuse a more viable solution for projecting rookie’s stats prior to them taking the ice for the first time at the NHL level.
Sample size must always be kept in mind when glancing over these projections. A player who’s never played more than three career games (like Tommy Cross, for example) will reflect a tremendous value in projected assists if they’ve recorded even just one assist (again, like Providence Bruins all-time leader in games played, Tommy Cross) in those three games. This will fluctuate pending more appearances and/or throughout the season on its own (usually in the downward trend, unless said AHL player cracks the NHL roster full-time).
But for all the jokes, Tommy Cross is an excellent depth-defenseman/top-pair defenseman in the AHL to have. Shouts to him.
Additionally, please remember that my degree is in communication, not math, so I am by no means a wizard with numbers in Microsoft Excel and I’m sure my Corsi is terrible. Plus, you’re probably not a front office member or anyone who might have some credibility for statistical reasoning and advanced stats analysis in hockey, so take everything with a grain of salt before you complain that math is ruining “your” sport.
Unless you are some Corsi-god/NHL front office member and you’ve stumbled upon this, in which case, let’s start over. Hello, please ignore the last paragraph, my name is Nick and I’d like a job. Thanks.
On offense, the usual suspects for the Boston Bruins will remain the core components that push the team forward night-in and night-out. Patrice Bergeron should amass another 60-plus point season after having a “down year” last season with only 53 points in 2016-2017.
Pastrnak will lead the Bruins in points according to the latest models with 31-33-64 totals.
While Brad Marchand’s expected 31-29-60 totals this season rank fourth on the team’s projected scoring leaders behind Pastrnak (64), David Krejci (63) and Bergeron (62), it’s easy to imagine Marchand improving from his career best 39 goals, 46 assists (85 points) season last season and shattering his season-entering projections.
Gut Feeling 2.0 seems to point in the direction of Marchand leading in points, based off of last season, and Pastrnak leading in goals (as is shown in these numbers with Pastrnak and Marchand tied for the lead on the Bruins roster with 31 projected goals each this season).
Matt Beleskey and Frank Vatrano should each right their ships this season coming off of not-so-easy to return from leg injuries last season. Beleskey’s expected 14-16-30 totals would rank as his 3rd best season in his NHL career– with room to gain more ground– since appearing in two games with the Anaheim Ducks in 2008-2009.
Meanwhile, Vatrano (29 points projected in 2017-18), barring another injury, should finally partake in a full-season and become the glue-guy on the third line that he’s been expected to become after being a goal-a-game AHL player in his short career with Providence.
The Boston blue line looks retooled, restocked and ready to go.
Gone are John-Michael Liles, Colin Miller and Joe Morrow; in are the likes of Charlie McAvoy and Paul Postma. Liles has moved on to become a TV analyst for Altitude and Colorado Avalanche broadcasts while still technically an unrestricted free agent. Colin Miller was claimed by the Vegas Golden Knights at the 2017 Expansion Draft and Morrow signed with the rival Montreal Canadiens this offseason after not being tendered a qualifying offer.
McAvoy’s rookie season numbers will come fruition in the next 20 games or so, please give some time for an update on his projections, but until then, know this– he’s the real deal.
Nobody can possibly be the next Bobby Orr for Boston, since there’s only one Bobby Orr after all, but McAvoy likes to move the puck like Orr once did for the Bruins in the late 1960s and 1970s. And McAvoy’s got a tough element to his game too, like legendary Bruins defenseman, Eddie Shore, McAvoy can hit.
Postma is mainly an afterthought, but provides much needed depth for the long run.
Brandon Carlo looks to make an impact in his sophomore season and should continue to absorb any and all knowledge from 40-year-old captain, Zdeno Chara, as a shut-down pair. Yes, Chara is still a good defenseman. He’ll max out around 40 points this season with Carlo carrying more weight and the Bruins offense doing their part in keeping the puck out of the defensive zone to begin with.
Meanwhile, Torey Krug should an average year with 10 goals and 35 assists (45 points). Even an average year for Krug is still a better year than most defensemen.
And in other news, Tuukka Rask is still the number one goaltender for obvious reasons. He’s good.
More on Boston’s goalies as a whole in later posts throughout the season.
For now, Bruce Cassidy‘s Bruins are ready to fly– mostly because of Cassidy’s coaching style that emphasizes going full throttle all the time and not because bears have sprouted wings or anything.
Our hearts go out to everyone in Las Vegas as well as the family of Dave Strader. Jaromir Jagr watch comes to an end (sort of) and Nick and Connor have already moved on to the next guy. It’s Phil Kessel‘s birthday and two members of the Original Trio discuss training camp cut/non-cut surprises.
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By: Nick Lanciani
In another rendition of my season long look at projected Boston Bruins stats, here’s how things are going through 40 games played (yes, I know, I’m a little late to posting this, but hey, life is kind of going on outside of the Internet, ya know).
Despite cooling off as of late, David Pastrnak is still on pace for a career year to remember in Boston. A slow year for Patrice Bergeron is still a lot better year than all of our years combined. Given the eye test as of late, Brad Marchand is waking up, despite what his 22-35-57 projected totals say.
Across the roster, the Bruins are dominating the Corsi for% game. The only problem is that they’re having a hard time converting immense offensive production and efficiency into goals. Additionally, plus-minus is not Boston’s best friend right now, despite having stellar nights in and out from Tuukka Rask in goal. While Rask has been outstanding, that whole “goals in, goals out” model doesn’t appear to be working for the skaters in front of him in goal differential and the like.
Boston’s rookie trio of Austin Czarnik, Anton Blidh and Brandon Carlo look to be contributors down the remaining stretch, but don’t look for their play to show up in the points column too much. Instead, take your eye off the puck, because that’s where they reside, setting up the big plays.
Finally, about the Bruins goalies…
Rask shouldn’t play upwards of 60 games, but if he has to, this year appears to be an acceptable year to do so.
Anton Khudobin was sent to Providence after having played thus far worse than he did in nine games last season with the Anaheim Ducks before being sent to San Diego.
With a few more games under his belt, Zane McIntyre should come into his own on the NHL level. Until then, the 10-0-0 goalie in the AHL so far this year is still looking for his first win in the NHL (which would certainly help my forecast function in Excel and allow me to say more).
Standard disclaimer:
“Keep in mind, every stat is based off of a player’s entire career and may not reflect well with the other stats projected for this current season (a.k.a. goals + assists might not equal the number of points shown in the points category), because again, each stat is forecasted individually.
Italics indicates a player currently with their respective AHL affiliate. Underlined player stats indicate a player on the IR (which, admittedly, I’ll do my best to keep up with, but might not have perfect every time, so forgive me if I mistakenly label an injury or fail to label one entirely).”
Boston Bruins Projections- Through game 40 of 82
For comparison, here’s how the Bruins were projected to do at Game 0 of 82 (prior to the start of the 2016-2017 regular season):
*I keep saying I’m going to get around to projecting stats for the Arizona Coyotes and I really do mean it. These things take some time by hand, so please forgive me. It’ll probably be some time soon(ish).*
By: Nick Lanciani
Hey guys, below you’ll see a look at my current projections for Boston Bruins skaters and goaltenders through 20 games into the season. Compared with the projections entering this season, David Pastrnak is a bright spot for the Bruins, Patrice Bergeron is off to a slow start (and that will affect his season totals) and well, they’re a team that’s capable of being the team that they currently are (outside of a playoff spot).
If you’re big into plus-minus, then you might want to look away from my Boston projections for their remaining 62 games (okay 61 now technically, with their loss to Calgary on Friday night, but that game was not included in any of my calculations).
I’ll have an updated look at how the B’s are progressing through 40 games played when the time comes. Likewise, I’ll have a look at the Arizona Coyotes through 20 games, hopefully in the next few days (if not, it’s because I’m busy presenting my Corsi capstone project— wish me luck, I guess).
And as I always write:
“Keep in mind, every stat is based off of a player’s entire career and may not reflect well with the other stats projected for this current season (a.k.a. goals + assists might not equal the number of points shown in the points category), because again, each stat is forecasted individually.
Italics indicates a player currently with their respective AHL affiliate. Underlined player stats indicate a player on the IR (which, admittedly, I’ll do my best to keep up with, but might not have perfect every time, so forgive me if I mistakenly label an injury or fail to label one entirely).”
Boston Bruins Projections- Through game 20 of 82
Bruins forwards
Bruins goalies
Corsi for% projections for Boston roster skaters
Alright Down the Frozen River and hockey fans, we here are going to try something new for the first time! This subject, surprisingly, doesn’t have anything to do with the NHL! What?!? I am covering a junior game for the first time! What does this mean?!?! Well, tonight we will be recapping the 2016 Memorial Cup Hockey Semi-Final Game between the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies and the Red Deer Rebels. The Memorial Cup is a junior hockey championship trophy awarded annually to the CHL (Canadian Hockey League) champion. It is awarded to a team following a round-robin tourney, between four teams, between a host team, and the champions of the CHL’s three leagues: the OHL which is the Ontario Hockey League, the QMJHL which is the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League, and WHL which is the Western Hockey League.
The teams involved in this year tournament are the London Knights of the OHL, Red Deer Rebels out of the WHL who are also the host team this year, Rouyn-Noranda Huskies from the QMJHL, and, last but not least, the Brandon Wheat Kings of the WHL.
(The Brandon Wheat Kings locked up the 2nd overall spot in the WHL going 48-18-4-2 with 102 points, only four points out of first. The Wheat Kings went on to win the Ed Chynoweth Cup, which is given to the playoff champion. Brandon winded up crushing the Seattle Thunderbirds in five games to capture the crown and a spot to the Memorial Cup. While the London Knights finished 2nd in their division going 51-14-2-1 with 105 points to end the regular season. They actually tied the Erie Otters in their division in points, but the reason why they finished 2nd was they had one less win then the Otters. So since they finished 2nd, ended up 5th overall behind the four regular season division champs. The Knights went on to capture the J. Ross Robertson Cup, which is also for the playoff champion. They only lost two games the entire playoffs, sweeping every round after the first round.)
Tonight was the play in game for the Championship Game against the London Knights who earned an automatic bid to the Final game after going 3-0 in round robin play. The Rouyn-Noranda Huskies had a bye into the semifinal matchup and awaited the winner of the quarterfinal game between the Brandon Wheat Kinds and the Red Deer Rebels. The Wheat Kings jumped out to a 1-0 lead halfway through the middle period. The Rebels fought their way back into the contest tying the game with a little over five minutes remaining in the game. That’s when Red Deer tallied the game-winning goal in Over Time with a minute left in extra time to punch their ticket to the Semis aginst the Huskies.
Red Deer finished 6th overall in the Western Hockey League during the regular season going 45-24-1-2 and 93 points and clinching a spot in the playoffs. The Rebels lost in the Eastern Conference Championship Series 4 games to 1 of the WHL playoffs against, believe it or not, the Wheat Kings. While the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies were the regular season champs finishing in 1st place with an impressive 54-9-3-2 record with 113 points! That was 20 points better than the second-place team! The Huskies went on to win the Presidents Cup, which is awarded to the playoff champion. They won the required 16 games in each of the four rounds, and only lost three total games! So clearly this game was going to be a battle.
Coming into the game, the starting goaltender for each team were a little less than impressive with their stats. The Huskies goalie Chase Marchand had an amazing QMJHL playoff run appearing in all 19 games going 15-3 with an astounding 1.35 GAA and a .946 SV% and a marvelous shutout streak of 223:23. His numbers led all netminders in the playoffs (he also led all goalies in GAA in the regular season with 2.42). Coming into tonight’s game, Chase went 1-2 with a horrid 4.02 GAA and .883 SV% in his 3 Memorial Cup Games.
While Red Deers goalie Rylan Toth played nine games in their playoffs. His record was a less impressive 3-5-1 with a .905 SV% and a 3.19 GAA. As well as his 2-1 record, a 2.94 GAA and a .904 SV%. So clearly Marchand was much better in his playoffs then Toth. When Toth has been much better in his three games in the MC (Memorial Cup).
Red Deer is looking to become the first host team to advance and play in the Finals since 2012. The last team to do this were the Shawinigan Cataractes who beat the London Knights 2-1 in front of their home crowd to win it all. Now if the Huskies win, it will be their first time ever in the Final.
Alright finally (now the fun part begins) let’s get to the game! Here’s what went down:
The game started off with a very quick pace. Both clubs combined for a total of six shots within the first four minutes of the game. Then with the seventh shot of the first period, just 4:50 into the opening frame we finally got the game’s first prime scoring chance. Huskies defender Allan Carron grabbed the loose puck along the left side boards. Carron skated to the bottom of the left side hash marks in the slot and let a sharp wrister on net. Rebel goalie Rylan Toth was up to the task and blockered the shot into the corner to keep the score at zero.
Then a minute later, it was Red Deer’s turn to try and break the deadlock. Rebels center Jeff de Wit flew down the right-hand side into the attacking zone, taking on the defender. Wit made some nifty moves and found his way to the left side dot. Wit noticed a shot opportunity and took full advantage as he rifled a wrist shot that was pegged for the top left corner. Huskies goalie Chase Marchand somehow, some way was able to get his right shoulder in the way and deflected the puck into the corner for his best save of the game so far.
Five minutes later, we would then get the games first penalty. Rebels D-man Austin Strand got a two minute trip to the sin bin for high sticking minor. This would send Rouyn-Noranda to their first manpower advantage of the game. It only took the Huskies 33 seconds to strike first for the games first goal. San Jose draftee and Huskies star Timo Meier would intercept a bad pass from a Rebels D in their own zone at the top of the left circle. Meier saw Senators draft pick Francis Perron wide open across the ice on the right circle. Meier hit Perron with a sweet pass right in his wheelhouse and Perron let a one-time clap bomb go. Perron’s heat-seeking shot beat Toth far side, back in the direction he came from, to open the scoring at 1-0. This was Perron’s first goal of the MC.
It only took Rouyn-Noranda 1:07 later to double their score. Huskies winger and Colorado pick A.J. Greer fell over with the puck in the left corner of the attacking zone. Toronto draftee Martins Dzierkals picked up the puck in the corner and drove right to the front of the net. For some reason, Rebels defenders gave him all of the time and room that he wanted. Dzierkals took advantage of this and flipped a wimpy backhand shot on net that beat Toth between his legs. Dzierkals first goal of the MC and it increased his team’s lead to 2-0.
At the 16:51 mark of the first period, the Huskies took their first penalty of the game. Bruins draftee and Huskies D-man Jeremy Lauzon got called for roughing on Rebels center Jeff de Wit. This now put the Rebels on their first PP of the game where they looked to cut into the two-goal deficit before the intermission. Unfortunately, thanks to stellar penalty killing and goaltending, the Huskies killed it off only giving up two shots.
The first period ended with the Huskies up 2-0 thanks to goals 1:07 apart and solid goaltending from Chase Marchand.
The second period opened up with the Rebels in on the attack. Just 20 seconds into the period Red Deer had an offensive zone faceoff. The Rebels won the faceoff and D-man Kyle Doetzel found himself with the puck at the point. Doetzel fired a slap shot right towards the net that was deflected on its way through. Goalie Marchand looked to glove the shot down, but since it was deflected, the puck hit the top of his glove and rang right off the crossbar and out! Red Deer was that close to scoring and cutting into the lead.
Once again, a minute later, the Rebels had another prime chance to score. Other Bruins pick and Rebels winger Jake DeBrusk came speeding down the left-hand side and into the offensive zone. DeBrusk picked his head up at the bottom of the circle and lasered a pass over to captain Luke Philp in front of the net. Philp directed the pass on net and was stoned by Marchand with his glove again to keep the score at 2-0.
Red Deer were all over the Huskies in the opening minutes of the second period. They held the puck in the attacking zone for a while and were relentless on the puck. They managed to get five shots within the first three minutes. All the shots were high-quality scoring chances but were turned away by Marchand.
Rouyn-Noranda went back on to the power play 3:46 into the middle frame. Red Deer defender Josh Mahura got caught for interfering with Huskies winger Martins Dzierkals. The Huskies looked to strike on the PP for another crushing goal. Well, the Huskies got just want they wanted and scored with 42 seconds left on the power play. With all the PP time being spent in the offensive zone on the prowl for a goal. Ottawa draft pick and Huskies winger Francis Perron had the puck at the top of the left-hand circle. Perron passed the puck up to D-man Nikolas Brouillard who unloaded a nasty one-time slapper that beat Rebel goalie Rylan Toth over his glove, off the post, and went into triple their lead at 3-0. This was Brouillard first goal of the MC and team’s second power-play goal of the game.
With 7:31 left in period two Red Deer would get another chance to score on their second power play of the game. Rouyn-Noranda winger Mathieu Boucher got caught for slashing Rebels center Conner Bleackley. Finally, after all of Red Deer’s pressure, they were able to get one past “on point” (don’t worry, that means good) Chase Marchand after a flurry of shots (three in eight seconds). Rebels center Michael Spacek had the puck at the left circle looking for options to pass to. Spacek found fellow D-man and Hurricanes draft pick Hayden Fleury open in the middle of the ice at the top of the point with a pass. Fleury wasted no time and put a one-t slapshot on net in hopes for a rebound. His wish was granted when the puck was deflected in the slot and slid right to captain Luke Philp just above the crease off to the right. Philp grabbed the loose puck and slammed the puck into the open net right before Marchand could get his pad over to his right. This was Philp’s second goal of the MC and brought his team back in the game at 3-1.
Three minutes later Red Deer would go right back on their third man advantage hoping to strike just like last time. Huskies D-man Jeremy Lauzon would make his second trip to the box, this time for holding Rebels winger Evan Polei. Sadly for Red Deer, they were held to just one shot thanks to stellar penalty killing from Rouyn-Noranda.
Towards the end of the period, specifically 50 seconds left, Red Deer would get one last chance before the second period would come to a close. Rebel defender Colton Bobyk, who is well known for his slap shot, decided to change it up a bit. Bobyk would fancy his luck with the puck and try to take it upon his own to score a goal. Bobyk would move on into the offensive zone just above the left circle. Bobyk ripped a wrist shot on net, that was labeled for the top right corner. Huskies Chase Marchand had other ideas and reached out and robbed Bobyk with a heavenly glove save to keep his team’s two-goal lead at 3-1 going into the second intermission.
As the third period started, Red Deer’s players and fans realized their season was coming to an end and were pushing to get a goal.
Five minutes into the final period, Rouyn-Noranda would get their third PP of the contest. Rebels winger Grayson Pawlenchuk got tacked with an infraction for cross checking on Huskies Mathieu Boucher. Red Deer kept their composure, only gave up one shot, and killed off the penalty with poise. Things did not get any better for Red Deer as they took another penalty four minutes later. This time, it was D-man Kyle Doetzel hauling down Huskies winger Timo Meier with a hook and sent Rouyn-Noranda to their fourth power play. Once again, Red Deer were ecstatic on the PK and killed it off.
Then with 6:50 left in the final frame, the Huskies were looking to tack on another insurance goal. Huskies winger Timo Meier was in a battle on the left point blue line into the attacking zone. Meier made a fantastic play and tipped the puck to Av’s draft pick and streaking center Julien Nantel to send him in on a breakaway. Nantel tried fooling Rebel goalie Rylan Toth with a couple fake moves and put a little wrister on net from the slot. Toth made a confident and easy right pad save and pushed the puck into the right corner to keep the game tied and give the Rebels a little glimmer of hope.
Red Deer tried another common tactic with 2:21 remaining. They pulled their goalie to get an extra attacker on the ice and play some 6 on 5 hockey. Well, this did not work at all one bit! Thanks to some stunning defense from Rouyn-Noranda in their own zone, they didn’t allow a single shot. This usually doesn’t happen with a man advantage, especially with the goalie is pulled, but the Huskies were up to the challenge and shut the Rebels down.
The game ended with the Huskies pulling out the win 3-1. Rebels goalie Rylan Toth stopped 24 out of 27 shots for a .889 SV% while Huskies goalie Chase Marchand stopped a whopping 36 out of 37 shots for a .973 SV %.
The Rouyn-Noranda Huskies will now face the RED HOT London Knights and Mitch Marner in the Championship Game on Sunday afternoon at 4:30. The game can be seen on NHL Network.
Down the Frozen River 
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