Down the Frozen River

Tag: Haydn Fleury

  • Carolina Hurricanes 2018-19 Season Projections

    It’s October whateverth, I know, and the regular season is already underway, but transferring data into a new system and (in some cases) building new rosters entirely can take its time in the midst of catching every game on TV, living life, etc.

    So without further ado let’s pretend the 5-3-1 (11 points)– 1st place in the Metropolitan Division– Carolina Hurricanes didn’t actually start the season yet and let’s turn back the clocks to before puck drop on the regular season.

    Back then, Andrei Svechnikov had yet to play an NHL game as an 18-year-old rookie. The 2nd overall pick in the 2018 NHL Draft’s forecasted stats couldn’t be calculated until he stepped foot on the ice. Though his 2-2–4 totals in his first nine games have him forecasted for 18 goals and 18 assists (36 points) over his first 82 games, we’ll pretend we don’t actually know what we know now.

    Anyway, the fact of the matter remains the same–  prior to the start of any regular season, these forecasted stats are merely educated expectations. A player who performs better than their expected outcome exceeded expectations (makes sense). A player who doesn’t live up to the numbers was either injured, a healthy scratch or on a chronic cold streak (or whatever).

    Last season’s Carolina Hurricanes finished 6th in the Metropolitan Division with a 36-35-11 record and 83 points on the season. Bill Peters was fired as head coach and former Hurricanes superstar Rod Brind’Amour was hired behind the bench. Don Waddell took over as General Manager in the offseason, going from interim to full-time as owner Tom Dundon embraced a new direction to go along with his new reign.

    The annual doldrums in Raleigh, North Carolina might be over sooner rather than later with a stockpile of youth in Sebastian Aho, Warren Foegele, Svechnikov and others, in addition to the quietly shutdown defensive pairings that include Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce and newcomers Dougie Hamilton, as well as Calvin de Haan.

    Carolina holds the longest playoff drought in the league currently, dating back to their 2009 Eastern Conference Finals appearance against the Pittsburgh Penguins– just three years removed from their 2006 Stanley Cup championship. The Hurricanes haven’t been part of any postseason activity in the 2010s.

    Not that this season can necessarily change that, but the end of the drought is soon and the oasis of playoff hockey draws near.

    It’s at this point in every forecast where I’d like to remind everyone my degree is in communication– not math– therefore all mistakes are strictly Microsoft Excels fault and for sure not an error of my own. Well, that, and there’s sometimes a little gut-feeling mixed in for players who’ve only played in less than ten games and therefore are projected to score, like, 100 goals or something.

    My area of expertise resides in the written, spoken and nonverbal language of communicating– not numbers.

    Forecasted stats are to be looked at as an utopian perspective– as though everything were to fall into line and nothing bad could ever happen. Some players will pan out and others will fall flat. These are only suggested (expected) outcomes for a sport that’s highly unpredictable due to its collective nature and sheer puck luck.

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    Carolina Hurricanes Forecast Through 0 Games (82 Games Remaining)

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    The good news for Carolina heading into 2018-19 is the realistic expectations are low. There’s only three players that are expected to crack the 50-point plateau, but that doesn’t mean any meteoric rise can’t creep up on any member of the Hurricanes and propel this roster into the postseason for the first time in– by the time April rolls around– a decade.

    Brind’Amour is behind the bench now and having no prior NHL experience as a head coach, there’s nothing to point to and say “they’re destined to fail”. The Canes might come out of this with one of the best rookie coaches this season if they make the playofs and given all the expectations of the other rookie coaches around the league.

    Washington’s Todd Reirden is behind the defending-Cup champions (so there’s high expectations with room only to fail), David Quinn is coaching a rebuilding New York Rangers bunch (so anything goes), Jim Montgomery is in charge of the borderline Dallas Stars (things could go either way) and Brind’Amour, well, he can only go up what with the roster he was given.

    As always, we’ll get into goalies and rookies after the first quarter of the season passes, however, he’s a quick look at the expected top-points scorers for the Hurricanes this season.

    Valentin Zykov has shown potential before and if Brind’Amour can finally be the one to light a fire under his playing style, perhaps Zykov just might amass 24-35–59 totals and be like William Karlsson was for the Vegas Golden Knights last season– except this time around, Zykov isn’t a new face in town for a new team.

    Aho (27-31–58 expected totals) should easily reach, if not exceed, expectations for Carolina as he enters the world of first line minutes in the post-Jeff Skinner on the Hurricanes era.

    We’ll neglect the holes in the Skinner trade where Waddell should’ve gotten more, but at least Aho is a positive in the “next man up” category of “players who should live up to being rushed into the spotlight, since there’s nobody else to turn to and have already been part of the organization prior to a rather one-sided trade”.

    “Mr. Game 7” himself (Justin Williams) is bound for one last “breakout” year with 22-33–55 expected totals on a rejuvenated Hurricanes roster.

    Meanwhile, Micheal Ferland, Warren Foegele and Jordan Staal make themselves as prime candidates for dark horse work horses in Carolina.

    On defense, Dougie Hamilton (44 expected points) supersedes Justin Faulk (39 expected points) as Carolina’s top blue liner after being acquired in the Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm trade for Hamilton, Ferland and Adam Fox. In addition, Slavin and Pesce continue to fill-out one of the best kept secrets in NHL defense as pieces of the most underrated top-six blue liners with de Haan now part of the fold.

    In goal, well, Brind’Amour has a lot of decisions to make on an almost nightly basis. Neither Scott Darling nor Petr Mrazek look to have goals against averages or save percentages in the starting goaltender range.

    In fact, both are in the sub-par backup goaltender range– closer to 3.00 than 2.00– so as long as the Hurricane’s defense limits shots against and lessens the workload, then perhaps the season’s collapse won’t be because of bad goaltending.

    Time will tell.

    Until then, feel free to look around at how the Golden Knights and Boston Bruins should do this season.

  • February 15 – Day 127 – Dust devils

    Buckle up for a Thursday full of hockey! Between the NHL and the Olympics, there’s a total of 15 games going down today!

    With the playoff bracket set for the women’s Olympic tournament, it’s all about the men’s action in PyeongChang today. Opening up our day’s action at 7:10 a.m. Eastern time are two Group A games: the Czech Republic vs. South Korea and Switzerland vs. Canada.

    Back home in North America, the NHL is enjoying another busy Thursday. As usual, the action begins at 7 p.m. with a trio of tilts (Carolina at New Jersey, the New York Rangers at the New York Islanders and Los Angeles at Pittsburgh [TVAS/SN1]), followed half an hour later by two more (Buffalo at Ottawa [RDS2] and Detroit at Tampa Bay). A pair of games drop the puck at 8 p.m. (Calgary at Nashville and Washington at Minnesota), while Anaheim at Chicago waits 30 minutes before getting underway. Next up is Montréal at Arizona (RDS) at 9 p.m., trailed an hour later by Edmonton at Vegas (SN1) and Vancouver at San Jose at 10:30 p.m. to close out the evening. All times Eastern.

    Returning our attention to South Korea, the American men are taking on Slovakia at 10:10 p.m., followed by the OAR against Slovenia at 2:40 a.m. Friday morning – both in Group B play. All times Eastern.

    As usual, it’s a stellar slate of hockey games. Beyond the Olympic group play, two NHL rivalries drew my attention when the schedule was released this summer.

    • New York at New York: Earlier in the season, the Battle of New York looked like it was going to be a big deal. Maybe next year.
    • Buffalo at Ottawa: The same was said in the preseason about this rivalry featuring a team that had qualified for the Eastern Finals and another that looked to be improving. Maybe next year.

    However, don’t read too much into that and think no important games are going on in the NHL tonight. As for the most important, look no further than the fixture atop the league’s schedule.

     

    27-21-9 Carolina enters tonight’s game riding a three-game winning streak and four-game point streak that has propelled it into the second wildcard. However, that winning streak comes with a slight asterisk: those wins came against Vancouver, Colorado and Los Angeles – three teams not currently in playoff position.

    That being said, the Hurricanes didn’t make their own schedule, they just have to play teams as they come up. And play them they have, as the Canes have been the stingiest team in the NHL since February 6, allowing only 1.75 goals against per game in that time.

    As might be expected, 17-7-3 G Cam Ward has been a major part of that success, as he’s been in net for three of Carolina’s last four games. In those three starts, he’s posted an impressive .933 save percentage and 1.95 GAA to improve his season numbers to .912 and 2.6.

    With the Islanders heading to Raleigh to square off against the Hurricanes tomorrow, it remains to be seen if Ward will be in net tonight or if he’ll go tomorrow. Personally, I’m pegging 10-14-6 G Scott Darling to draw the start tonight given the potency of New York’s attack. Though he only has an .894 save percentage and 2.99 GAA on the season, he will have the benefit of a stellar defense playing in front of him whichever night he’s in net.

    One of the Hurricanes’ most exciting defensemen of late has been D Haydn Fleury, the 21-year-old flying all over the ice causing havoc. Though he has only played in Carolina’s last two games, he leads the team in hits-per-game (3.5) and blocks-per-game since (2.5) February 6. C Victor Rask has also been impressive during this four-game streak, as he leads the team with nine takeaways in that time.

    Between the efforts of Fleury, Rask and the entire Carolina defense, the Hurricanes have allowed an average of only 28 shots against per game, the sixth-best in the NHL since February 6.

    The last time we featured the Devils was also their last showing. Tuesday’s 5-4 come-from-behind shootout victory in Philadelphia snapped Jersey’s four-game losing skid that featured it losing to the likes of Ottawa and Columbus – two teams on the outside of the playoff picture looking in.

    The only reason New Jersey was able to stop the bleeding is because its offense was able to keep up with the Flyers, but that’s not to say the Devils are scoring with the best of teams right now. Since February 6, Jersey has averaged only 2.6 goals per game – the (t)seventh-fewest in the NHL in that time.

    Of course, if there’s one thing a struggling offense doesn’t mix well with, it’s a porous defensive end. Between a defense that has allowed a (t)12th-worst 33.8 shots against per game over its last five games or 11-7-2 G Keith Kinkaid not being 17-11-6 G Cory Schneider, the Devils are having to pay their scoreboard operator overtime lately considering they’re allowing a second-worst 4.6 goals against per game since February 6.

    With no game tomorrow and Schneider likely not ready to make his return tonight, Kinkaid is all but certain to be in net this evening. As stated Tuesday, he’s struggled mightily since assuming starting duties while Schneider is recovering from his groin injury, posting a save percentage (.869) and GAA (4.8) in his last four starts that is well below his season marks of a .891 save percentage and 3.31 GAA.

    Even though we’re two weeks past the All-Star Break, the NHL’s officially unofficial midway point of the season, this is surprisingly the first meeting of the season between the Canes and Devils. However, just as soon as the four-game season series gets started, it’ll be finished: these clubs will tangle for the second time only three days from now in Raleigh, followed by another game at PNC Arena on March 2 and their final meeting of the season on March 27.

    Though the Devils were able to find the win column Tuesday, it’s hard to imagine an evening where they’re able to beat another surging team. I think the Canes are more than capable of earning two points in the standings today, and doing it in regulation would earn them a promotion into the East’s top wild card.

    With a 2-1 victory against Team USA in yesterday’s DtFR Game of the Day at Kwandong Hockey Centre, the Canadian women swept Group A play to earn the top seed in the Olympic knockout tournament.

    The best scoring opportunity of the first period belonged to Team Canada with 3:15 remaining in the frame. In fact, the opportunity was so good, the puck actually found the back of G Maddie Rooney’s net. However, the play had been ruled dead before the Canadian would-be scorer even struck her shot due to the international rule that restricts all activity by the opposition in a goaltender’s crease, leaving the score tied a 0-0.

    F Meghan Agosta (F Natalie Spooner and F Brianne Jenner) broke the scoreless draw at the 7:18 mark of the second period. With D Megan Keller in the penalty box, that left the slot unprotected following a backward centering pass from Spooner from the goal line. Agosta took advantage to flip a wrist shot past Rooney.

    Even though the play appeared to be offside, F Sarah Nurse (D Jocelyne Larocque) doubled Canada’s advantage with 5:04 remaining in the period by flinging a wrister from along the left boards over Rooney’s right shoulder. Team USA had an opportunity to pull back within a goal with 3:52 remaining in the frame with a penalty shot, but F Jocelyne Lamoureux-Davidson’s backhander was blocked by G Genevieve Lacasse.

    Only 23 seconds into the third period, Team USA finally found its first goal of the game when F Kendall Coyne (F Brianna Decker) split two Canadian defensewomen to beat Lacasse five-hole.

    Canada thought it had reclaimed a two-goal advantage with 9:08 remaining in regulation, but Haley Irwin used her skate instead of her stick to beat Rooney. The goal was taken off the board, returning the score to 2-1.

    That revoked tally didn’t ultimately prove to matter, as the Americans could not find it in them to level the game in the remaining time.

    Lacasse earned the victory after saving 44-of-45 shots faced (.978 save percentage), leaving the loss to Rooney, who saved 21-of-23 (.913).

    With Canada technically being listed as the home team in yesterday’s game, its victory snapped a three-game winning streak by road teams in the DtFR Game of the Day series. As such, the 69-41-17 hosts now have a 24-point advantage over the visitors.

  • Carolina Hurricanes 2014- 2015 Season Preview

    Connor Keith continues to display his hockey sense and analytic insight with his preview of the Carolina Hurricanes. This was written before final roster cuts were made, but the season kind of came along quickly and I kind of failed as an editor, posting things. But that shouldn’t make any of Connor’s analysis any less valuable! Enjoy.

    Carolina Hurricanes (36-35-11, seventh in division, 13th in conference)

    After missing the playoffs for the seventh time since hoisting the Stanley Cup in 2005-‘06, Peter Karmanos and new GM Ron Francis, promoted by virtue of Jim Rutherford leaving the Hurricanes organization & being hired by Pittsburgh, pulled the plug on almost the entire coaching staff. Since then, the Canes have hired Bill Peters to replace Kirk Muller. Steve Smith has been signed as an assistant coach & David Marcoux as a goaltending coach, replacing assistant coaches John MacLean & Dave Lewis.

    Bill Peters has yet to record a game in the NHL as a head coach, but he does have experience in head coaching. His first head coaching position was in the college ranks when he coached Lethbridge for three seasons (2002-’05). Spokane provided him his first professional head coaching job the following season, which he held for three seasons (2005-’08). In his first season with the Chiefs, he posted a 25-39-8 record, followed next season by a 36-28-8 record, worthy of a playoff spot in the WHL. The Chiefs fell in the first round to Everett, two games to four. His best season in Spokane was his last, as the Chiefs recorded a 50-15-7 record, a franchise record for wins in a season. This season witnessed the Chiefs hoisting both the Ed Chynoweth & Memorial Cups.

    Following the 2007-’08 season, Peters joined Rockford, where he found immediate success. In his first two seasons, the IceHogs qualified for the playoffs twice, but were swept in the first round each time (Milwaukee & Texas, respectively). His final season in Rockford was a disappointment as his team amassed a record of 38-33-9 for last place in the division, t-12 in conference.

    In 2011, Peters was hired by Detroit as an assistant coach, where he served for three seasons before being hired by Carolina.

    Luckily for the maturing Canes, the goalie with the most starts last season is returning in Anton Khudobin (36). Cam Ward, who had the second-most games played last season (30), may also return pending his preseason success. The Canes have also acquired Daniel Altshuller and Drew MacIntyre, bringing their goalie count to four. Based on moves made so far, Khudobin & Ward are still Carolina’s lead pair. Khudobin had a save percentage of 92.6% for the regular season (led Carolina goalies last season), averaging 2.3 goals against per game (also led team). Last season, Ward saved 89.8% of all shots (worst on team), averaging 3.06 goals against (worst on team). He may have strong competition for the backup spot from the two new acquisitions, especially from Macintyre.

    The Canes signed Drew Macintyre from the Toronto organization. He played in only two regular season games last year in the NHL for a 0-1-0 record. His save percentage in those games was 92.2% & he allowed 2.53 goals per game. He spent most of last season with the Marlies, who made it to the AHL playoffs. In the Marlies’ 14-game quest for the Calder Cup, he posted a 10-4 record, allowing only 2.08 goals a game with a save percentage of 94.1%. One-fifth (20%) of his playoff wins were shutouts.

    In addition, the Canes also signed 2012 draft pick Daniel Altshuller. He spent the entire season with the Oshawa Generals of the OHL, where he posted a 31-13-3 record in 52 games played. He recorded two shutouts (over 6% of wins were a result of a shutout) with a save percentage of 91.7%, allowing 2.56 goals per game. Oshawa made it to the playoffs, where Altshuller played 11 games for an 8-3 record. He only allowed 1.89 goals per playoff game for a save percentage of 93.1%, both greatly higher than his regular season numbers. This is the second time in three playoff seasons that he has been able to accomplish this feat, suggesting that he may perform well in the future under pressure.

    The Canes come into the season having lost some big names, most notably Drayson Bowman (signed with Montreal), Manny Malhotra (signed with Montreal), Tuomo Ruutu (traded to New Jersey in March).

    They lost two of the top 11 players with most regular season games with the Hurricanes last season in Drayson Bowman (70) & Manny Malhotra (69). The Canes are adding other players that can play most of a regular season, though, in Jay McClement (81, signed from Toronto), Victor Rask (76, 2011 draft pick), Justin Shugg (75, 2010 draft pick), Ben Holmstrom (75, signed from Philadelphia), Trevor Carrick (70, 2012 draft pick), Haydn Fleury (70, rookie), Michal Jordan (70, 2008 draft pick), & Brody Sutter (69, 2011 draft pick). These durable bodies should be able to create efficiency through consistent playing time together to continue to grow.

    The Canes are not bringing back two of their top 14 shot takers this year as Drayson Bowman (80) & Tuomo Ruutu (79) are not returning. These two players accounted for over 6% of the Hurricanes’ shots last regular season. They have added many players who more than make up for these lost numbers in Ben Holmstrom (168), Victor Rask (160), Justin Shugg (160), Danny Biega (114, 2010 draft pick), Michal Jordan (94), & Brody Sutter (89).

    Only 7% of last season’s goals will not show up to training camp this season as Manny Malhotra (seven) & Tuomo Ruutu (five) are with other teams. The Hurricanes have made a strong push for offense as they have hired multiple 10+ goal scorers from last season, including Brock McGinn (43, 2012 draft pick), Carter Sandlak (24, signed from Plymouth), Trevor Carrick (22), Victor Rask (16), Justin Shugg (16), Patrick Brown (15, undrafted free agent from Boston College), & Ben Holmstrom (13).

    The 12th leading assister from last season, Tuomo Ruutu (11) will not be with the Hurricanes this season. To more than make up for this, the Canes have signed Brock McGinn (42), Haydn Fleury (38), Trevor Carrick (29), Carter Sandlak (24), Victor Rask (23), Justin Shugg (22), Michal Jordan (21), Brody Sutter (20), Ben Holmstrom (19), Patrick Brown (15), Danny Biega (15), and Greg Nemisz (12, signed from Calgary).

    The only positive +/- player from last season not returning is Radek Dvorak (three, led defensemen, unsigned free agent). To improve upon both the loss and the fact that the Canes only had one player with a number greater than five, Carolina has acquired Brock McGinn (46), Haydn Fleury (15), & Greg Nemisz (nine).

    The Hurricanes lost one of the top six penalty minute earners in Radek Dvorak (41). Sadly, the Canes picked up Ben Holmstrom (146), Trevor Carrick (117), Carter Sandlak (95), Rasmus Rissanen (91, 2009 draft pick), Keegan Lowe (86, 2011 draft pick), Haydn Fleury (46), & Brock McGinn (45). These players will need to continue to grow in their discipline to have a truly positive effect in Raleigh. New hire Greg Nemisz only served 13 minutes in the sin bin last season, which averaged out to almost 17 seconds per game. This will be a huge asset to keep the Canes from defending the power play.

    Present roster consists of 24 forwards, 15 defensemen, & four goalies (42 men).