Tag Archives: Florida Panthers

Down the Frozen River Podcast #74- Participation Trophies After One Game (Part II)

Jaromir Jagr signed with the Calgary Flames this week, the regular season started (though the Pittsburgh Penguins might not have been told yet that the games matter now) and former players tend to be GMs in the NHL, the Original Trio confirms. Also, we gave participation trophies without even watching the rest of the season for the second year in a row.

Listen to this week’s podcast on our Libsyn page (and/or on your favorite podcast listening app that snags our RSS Feed).

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

Numbers Game: 2017-18 Standings Projections

Yes, it’s October.

Yes, it’s too early to make a final standings projection, but I’m going to do it anyway using a pseudo-algorithm called Heart and Grit Gut Feeling 2.0 (combined with the standard Microsoft Excel forecasting formula).

Gut Feeling 2.0 is better than just using the eye test because it combines actual numbers plugged into Microsoft Excel with the complete partial bias of whatever I feel like is the right record, number of points and/or anything shown below for all 31 teams in the NHL.

But seriously, to keep this loosely based in mathematics, I’ve included a range of points that three separate models are indicating (scroll to the bottom), as well as what Gut Feeling 2.0 is telling us.

2017-2018 Projected Final Standings

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

  1. y-Boston Bruins, 101 points
  2. x-Montreal Canadiens, 99 points
  3. x-Tampa Bay Lightning, 98 points
  4. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 95 points
  5. Ottawa Senators, 93 points
  6. Buffalo Sabres, 90 points
  7. Florida Panthers, 82 points
  8. Detroit Red Wings, 80 points

Predicting the final outcome across the Eastern Conference this year is a lot like playing the lottery– whether you pick your numbers or just do quick picks, your odds of winning are still far, far less than getting struck by lightning twice.

In the Atlantic Division, the Boston Bruins barely beat out the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning for the regular season division title with 101 points over Montreal’s 99 points and Tampa’s 98 points based on the Gut Feeling 2.0 model. Of course, seeding in the Stanley Cup Playoffs more often than not means nothing. Just like winning the President’s Trophy doesn’t mean much unless you win the Cup.

Given the parity of the Atlantic Division teams, it wouldn’t be surprising to see any of the top-four teams in this model switch places or grab the division crown. Based on expected final standings point-ranges alone, Tampa looks to rebound with ease, while Montreal maintains status quo.

It’s a bit of a surprise, but the Ottawa Senators sit just on the outside looking in, though logic says otherwise. For one team to improve in the division (say, Tampa for example, or the Buffalo Sabres with a healthy, full-season of Jack Eichel), another team must lose. Five points in the final standings is the only difference between 2017-2018 and 2016-2017 for the Sens and ultimately it costs them a postseason appearance.

But if any major injuries occur to teams ahead of the Senators or Sabres, then expect either Ottawa or Buffalo to be ready to take their place.

When it comes to 2018 Stanley Cup Playoff success, you might want to consider cashing in on the Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs to at least make it to the Second Round.

Metropolitan Division

  1. z-Pittsburgh Penguins, 107 points
  2. x-Washington Capitals, 106 points
  3. x-New York Rangers, 103 points
  4. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 102 points
  5. New York Islanders, 92 points
  6. Carolina Hurricanes, 92 points
  7. Philadelphia Flyers, 91 points
  8. New Jersey Devils, 84 points

The 2017-2018 final standings in the Metropolitan Division look similar to the 2016-2017 final standings in the Metropolitan Division. This is no accident. The top teams, Pittsburgh, Washington and the New York Rangers, remain dominant in their regular season play. Even the Columbus Blue Jackets, despite a six-point setback from their franchise best 50-win, 108-point season last year, remain a competitive team that should cross the 100-point plateau for two-seasons in a row under John Tortorella’s guise.

Whereas the Washington Capitals do not clinch the President’s Trophy in the 2017-2018 season and instead falter by 12 points compared to last season, the Carolina Hurricanes show improvement in their money-puck roster mentality, but ultimately the giants of the Metropolitan Divsion (the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins, to be specific) prove too much for them to handle this season, though a 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs run seems imminent.

Somehow the New York Islanders and Philadelphia Flyers remain stagnant this season, but the New Jersey Devils make the largest leap in points (from 70 points in ’16-’17 to 84 points in ’17-’18) as the rest of the division evens out.

Look for Pittsburgh to advance to the Second Round and yet another entertaining Rangers-Capitals matchup in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Western Conference

Central Division

  1. y-Chicago Blackhawks, 102 points
  2. x-St. Louis Blues, 101 points
  3. x-Nashville Predators, 97 points
  4. x-Dallas Stars, 96 points
  5. x-Minnesota Wild, 95 points
  6. Winnipeg Jets, 87 points
  7. Colorado Avalanche, 82 points

Look, the Dallas Stars have tremendous talent on their expected first line of Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov, but even with Ben Bishop as their starting goaltender the Stars aren’t the best team in the Central Division.

Instead, the annual “how do they keep doing this all the time? oh, right, they have Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith and Corey Crawford still” Chicago Blackhawks will just come out on top of the St. Louis Blues who look to improve from last season with a reinforced offense (hello, Brayden Schenn) and more experience on the blue line.

The Nashville Predators, in all their glory with four incredibly deep forward lines, the best defense (on paper) and an elite starting goalie in Pekka Rinne, surprisingly fall short of winning the division coming off of their 2017 Stanley Cup Final run. Nashville will be in better playoff position heading into the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs, given they won’t be the last team to clinch in the Western Conference, and they should be destined for another Western Conference Finals run, at least.

The Minnesota Wild are the winners of the consolation “hey the other division didn’t have four-quality playoff teams” prize and will clinch the second Western Conference wild card spot with 95 points in 2017-18– one season removed from a 49-25-8 record and 106 point, 2nd place finish in the Central Division.

Finally, the Colorado Avalanche couldn’t possibly have a season worse than they did last season, though they’re still poised to finish behind the Winnipeg Jets for last place in the division.

Pacific Division

  1. p-Edmonton Oilers, 112 points
  2. x-Anaheim Ducks, 109 points
  3. x-San Jose Sharks, 99 points
  4. Los Angeles Kings, 92 points
  5. Calgary Flames, 85 points
  6. Vancouver Canucks, 83 points
  7. Arizona Coyotes, 78 points
  8. Vegas Golden Knights, 72 points

Gut Feeling 2.0 never lies and the numbers don’t lie either. The Edmonton Oilers will be the top team in the Pacific Division when all is said and done this season. Better yet, the Oilers will be this season’s President’s Trophy winners– something that hasn’t happened since the days of some guy wearing a jersey with the number “99” on the back of it skated around the ice.

Other than Edmonton overtaking the Anaheim Ducks for first overall, there are virtually no changes in the Pacific Division standings. San Jose will knock at the door of a 100-point season for the third season in a row, only to fall a point short (for the second season in a row).

While Los Angeles Kings fans may be disappointed this season, if anything, missing the playoffs for one more season should give them enough time to develop and recover from their offseason roster moves while GM Rob Blake figures out the reins and plans the path back to Stanley Cup glory.

Things are coming together for the Arizona Coyotes. They won’t be a bad team; they’re just a victim of circumstance. Unfortunately, that circumstance dictates that it’s going to take one more season for the chemistry to work out as general manager, John Chayka, addresses the growing depth on offense (both in prospect development and with the addition of Derek Stepan this offseason), while building a stable core of defensemen and capable young goalies in Antti Raanta and Louis Domingue.

Meanwhile the Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames go through their own growing pains for another season.

Luckily for the Vegas Golden Knights, there’s no pressure to play better than last season, mostly because this is their inaugural season, so it can’t be worse than before!

Look for Edmonton to make noise in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs, going as deep as the Western Conference Finals– at least. Likewise, the Sharks seem ready for a better fight in the postseason than last season.

Plausible ranges in points based on three separate models (math done in Microsoft Excel alone– no Gut Feeling 2.0 added) for the 2017-2018 season:

Atlantic Division

Boston Bruins (94-101), Buffalo Sabres (67-84), Detroit Red Wings (86-101), Florida Panthers (84-92), Montreal Canadiens (93-99), Ottawa Senators (91-92), Tampa Bay Lightning (89-98), Toronto Maple Leafs (80-90)

Metropolitan Division

Carolina Hurricanes (81-87), Columbus Blue Jackets (84-92), New Jersey Devils (77-92), New York Islanders (84-97), New York Rangers (98-103), Philadelphia Flyers (90-92), Pittsburgh Penguins (105-108), Washington Capitals (102-119)

Central Division

Chicago Blackhawks (100-107), Colorado Avalanche (65-84), Dallas Stars (92-94), Minnesota Wild (93-97), Nashville Predators (94-97), St. Louis Blues (97-106), Winnipeg Jets (83-87)

Pacific Division

Anaheim Ducks (101-109), Arizona Coyotes (74-83), Calgary Flames (85-90), Edmonton Oilers (74-87), Los Angeles Kings (90-96), San Jose Sharks (99-104), Vancouver Canucks (72-95), Vegas Golden Knights (69-75)

Chicago Blackhawks 2017-2018 Season Preview

imgresChicago Blackhawks

50-23-9, 109 points, 1st in the Central Division

Eliminated in the First Round by Nashville

Additions: G Jean-Francois Berube, F Lance Bouma, F Laurent Dauphin, G Anton Forsberg, D Connor Murphy, D Jordan Oesterle, F Brandon Saad, F Patrick Sharp, F Tommy Wingels

Subtractions: D Brian Campbell (retired), G Scott Darling (traded to CAR), F Andrew Desjardins (signed a PTO with NYR), D Dillon Fournier (retired), D Niklas Hjalmarsson (traded to ARI), G Lars Johansson (signed with CSKA Moscow, KHL), F Marcus Kruger (traded to VGK), F Pierre-Cedric Labrie (signed with NSH), D Shawn Lalonde (signed with Kölner Haie, DEL), F Michael Latta (signed with ARI), F Martin Lundberg (signed with Växjö Lakers HC, SHL), F Brandon Mashinter (signed with SJ), F Tyler Motte (traded to CBJ), D Johnny Oduya (signed with OTT), F Artemi Panarin (traded to CBJ), F Dennis Rasmussen (signed with ANA), D Trevor van Riemsdyk (claimed by VGK at the 2017 Expansion Draft)

Still Unsigned: G Mac Carruth, F Kenton Helgesen, D Nolan Valleau

Offseason Analysis: After being swept in the First Round of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs by the Nashville Predators, the Chicago Blackhawks are turning the page by burning the playbook from the last few seasons. It’s not as much of an overreaction as the Florida Panthers this offseason, but it’s quite a change in the direction of the organization as a whole.

If something feels much different this offseason than in 2010, 2013 and 2015 it’s because the Blackhawks didn’t win the Cup and made moves this offseason similar to when they did.

They traded one of their star forwards. They traded a top-4 defenseman. They traded their backup goaltender. They navigated a tight cap situation. They still have Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, but they won’t have Marian Hossa this season (Hossa is out for the season due to a skin condition caused by his equipment, if you recall).

Brandon Saad returns to the Blackhawks in the biggest trade this offseason, in which two-time 70-plus point scorer, Artemi Panarin, was sent to the Columbus Blue Jackets. While Saad is a year younger than Panarin, he is no Bread Man– but at least he is under contract through the 2020-2021 season (whereas Panarin is set to become an unrestricted free agent following the 2018-2019 season).

Chicago didn’t do themselves any major favors in terms of saving some salary in the immediate future concerning the Saad acquisition, but they did buy themselves at least a few million dollars to spend elsewhere between now and when Panarin’s contract would’ve run out with the Blackhawks in 2019.

Then again, they cost themselves some scoring production between now and then, as Saad only put up 24-29-53 totals in 82 games last season compared to Panarin’s 31-43-74 totals in 82 games played.

Fear not, if you’re a Columbus fan, because hopefully in two years you’ll still be able to afford your number one scorer and highest paid player (although Josh Anderson is still unsigned as of the writing of this post and the Blue Jackets only have about $8 million in cap space– on second thought, yeah, you’ll be fine).

In addition to the expected drop in offensive production from Panarin to Saad, the Blackhawks will miss Hossa’s scoring ability this season (yes, even as a 38-year-old).

Chicago will turn to 21-year-old, Nick Schmaltz, and 23-year-old, Ryan Hartman, to pickup where others have left off on offense and especially because the rest of the roster isn’t getting any younger (ten of their forwards on the roster currently are 25 or older).

On defense, the Blackhawks are in search of a sixth defenseman and their next Trevor van Riemsdyk, given Brian Campbell’s retirement and the fact that van Riemsdyk was a victim of the Vegas Golden Knights expansion draft (and subsequent trade to the Carolina Hurricanes).

Newcomer Connor Murphy is their youngest product on the blue line at 24-years-old. Michal Kempny and Michal Rozsival seek to anchor the defense while Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook remain the star attractions of Chicago’s shut-down pairings. Between Kempny, Murphy, Rozsival and the unknown, somebody’s going to have to emerge as the replacement for Niklas Hjalmarsson (traded to Arizona, in exchange for Murphy and forward, Laurent Dauphin) and van Riemsdyk.

In goal, Corey Crawford returns as the starter, while Anton Forsberg and Jean-Francois Berube compete for the backup role. To the untrained scouting expert’s eye, both goalies can be dependable NHL backups, but Forsberg stands out more as a durable solution to the long term backup status goalie if Chicago is looking for one (hint: they are).

Don’t let Forsberg’s 4.10 goals against average and .852 save percentage last season dissuade you. He only made one appearance in net for Columbus and still managed a career best 2.28 GAA and .926 SV% in 51 games played with the Cleveland Monsters (AHL) last season. It doesn’t hurt to give him more playing time in relief of Crawford and especially with Berube as a third option, as Forsberg can really begin to develop in an organization’s system that isn’t clogged with a two-time Vezina Trophy winner (Sergei Bobrovsky) and Joonas Korpisalo.

Should he be called upon, Berube’s 3.42 GAA and .889 SV% in 14 games last season with the New York Islanders aren’t terrible, they’re just not great either. But again, there’s a reason why starting goalies play in more games than backup goalies.

Offseason Grade: C-

The Blackhawks made quite a splash this offseason by trading away Panarin, which isn’t the best look for a team that’s trying to remain a contender for a long time. Then again the salary cap exists and the return of Brandon Saad means Chicago will be able to get by in case the cap remains flat or in the event of a lockout for the duration of Saad’s contract.

One thing’s for sure, the Blackhawks will need some retooling during the Kane and Toews era because all good things must come to an end– and that time looks like it might be now as they navigate the uncertainty of Hossa’s career, a new look on the blue line and a bunch of expendable forwards for the time being while they wait for prospects to develop.

San Jose Sharks 2017-2018 Season Preview

UnknownSan Jose Sharks

46-29-7, 99 points, 3rd in the Pacific Division

Eliminated in the First Round by Edmonton

Additions: G Antoine Bibeau, F Brandon Bollig, F Brandon Mashinter

Subtractions: F Michael Haley (signed with FLA), F Nikita Jevpalovs (signed with Dinamo Riga, KHL), F Patrick Marleau (signed with TOR), D Mirco Mueller (traded to NJ), G Harri Sateri (signed with FLA), D David Schlemko (claimed by VGK in the 2017 Expansion Draft), F Zack Stortini (signed with Charlotte Checkers, AHL), F Buddy Robinson (signed with WPG)

Still Unsigned: G Mantas Armalis, D Dan Kelly, D Patrick McNally

Offseason Analysis: Doug Wilson and the San Jose Sharks had quite the quiet offseason. Kidding aside, they really didn’t do much. Yes, face of the franchise, Patrick Marleau moved on to the Toronto Maple Leafs, but other face of the franchise Joe Thornton stuck around.

Did Marleau’s departure send shockwaves throughout the organization? Probably not.

It was only a matter of time in today’s NHL– where most players aren’t like Shane Doan and will seek a roster that’s ready to win and win now before they retire. That’s not to say the Sharks cannot win the Cup in 2018, but it does speak volumes for the Maple Leafs’ chances of making the 2018 Stanley Cup Final compared to San Jose’s.

Marleau’s 508 goals are the most in franchise history and his 27 goals last season will be difficult to replace without adding a guaranteed goal scorer to the roster this offseason, but the Sharks are banking on their prospects.

In a sense, it’s fitting that they begin the transition of power now, with Marleau leaving on his own terms, Thornton getting up there in age (he turned 38 this summer) and seven other players who are at least 30 years old on the roster.

The league, let alone the Pacific Division around them, has only gotten younger, better, faster, stronger and more Daft Punk infused and more competitive than ever.

Wilson locked up his starting goaltender, Martin Jones, to a six-year, $34.5 million extension that begins next season and assures the organization of having a borderline elite goaltender through his prime. Jones will undoubtedly stand on his head again for the Sharks all season long.

But in case you were worried about the depth of the crease at SAP Center, well fear not, because Aaron Dell is the real deal as a backup. His 2.00 goals against average and .931 save percentage in 20 games played were a promising sign of things to come in his rookie season as San Jose’s backup last season. Dell shouldn’t have much to fear in Antoine Bibeau’s signing this offseason, given Bibeau’s 1.99 GAA and .927 SV% in two career NHL games with Toronto last season.

Dell has sample size working to his advantage and a need for goaltending down on the AHL roster– thanks to Harri Sateri’s departure to Florida this summer– that should keep Bibeau preoccupied as he comes into his goaltending prime.

On defense, David Schlemko was lost to the Vegas Golden Knights at the Expansion Draft (before being traded to the Montreal Canadiens, shortly thereafter) and Mirco Mueller was dealt to the New Jersey Devils. Luckily for the Sharks, Marc-Edouard Vlasic‘s newest extension should spread out the minutes and carry the weight of the team as Paul Martin, 36, nears the twilight of his career and Brent Burns, 32, begins the descent (not any time soon, per se, but in time).

In just 25 games last season, Dylan DeMelo, 24, was a bright spot on the blue line. Now, he’ll step into a more pronounced role as a top-6 defenseman.

With the exception of Marleau, the rest of the forwards remain the same. Thornton is worth $8 million for his one-year extension that he signed early in July, considering his loyalty and what will likely be yet another 50-plus point season.

Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture, Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl, Melker Karlsson and the rest of the gang look to improve on the last couple seasons of regular season dominance and Peter DeBoer seeks to push his skaters farther than ever before– with hopes set on another Stanley Cup Final run for the second time in three years (and maybe a different outcome this time).

Offseason Grade: C-

San Jose didn’t make any bad signings, but they also didn’t really do anything. Their defensive depth needs to be rebuilt sooner rather than later to avoid falling behind, which is something that happened a lot during the First Round of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs when Edmonton Oilers forwards flew by the Sharks blueliners and went for the net.

The Sharks might still be the same team that can hold their ground in the Pacific Division, but the teams around them got better. It’s possible that the Sharks will be surpassed by the Los Angeles Kings in the division standings– and that’s assuming that Anaheim and Edmonton are already ahead of them.

Boston Bruins 2017-2018 Season Preview

Unknown-7Boston Bruins

44-31-7, 95 points, 3rd in the Atlantic Division

Eliminated in the First Round by Ottawa

Additions: F Kenny Agostino, D Paul Postma, F Teddy Purcell (PTO), F Jordan Szwarz

Subtractions: D Linus Arnesson (signed with Örebro HK, SHL),  D Chris Casto (signed with VGK), F Colton Hargrove (signed with Providence Bruins, AHL), F Jimmy Hayes (signed a PTO with NJ after being bought out by BOS), F Brian Ferlin (signed with EDM), D Alex Grant (signed with MIN), D Colin Miller (claimed by VGK at the Expansion Draft), F Dominic Moore (signed with TOR), D Joe Morrow (signed with MTL), F Tyler Randell (signed with OTT), F Zac Rinaldo (signed with ARI), F Drew Stafford (signed with NJ)

Still Unsigned: D John-Michael Liles

Offseason Analysis: The last branches of the Tyler Seguin trade wilted this offseason for the Boston Bruins after defenseman, Joe Morrow, was not tendered a qualifying offer, therefore making him an unrestricted free agent (who ended up signing with the enemy, the Montreal Canadiens– reuniting with head coach, Claude Julien), and forward, Jimmy Hayes, was the victim of a buyout entering the final year of his contract (and now has a PTO with the New Jersey Devils).

Morrow, of course, was part of the original acquisition for Seguin, while Hayes came along after the Bruins flipped Reilly Smith (along with the contract of Marc Savard) to the Florida Panthers in the 2015 offseason.

But none of that matters now. The Seguin deal was done and over with the moment it happened.

Regardless of the debate surrounding whether it was the worst move or not by the organization, one thing is clear– the current rendition of the Boston Bruins are Don Sweeney‘s Boston Bruins. Let’s move on from the Peter Chiarelli Era highs and lows.

These Bruins have something to prove and are ready to show it.

Whether things go their way all comes down to the way the puck bounces.

Forwards Austin Czarnik and Tim Schaller were re-signed this offseason. Czarnik’s transition to the NHL proved helpful to the organization in times of automatic depth necessity (injury) and Schaller surpassed all previous expectations in a breakout season (seven goals, seven assists in 59 games played).

Alas, the words “breakout season” are intrinsically connected to the words “sample size”, as Schaller had only played 35 career games in two seasons with the Buffalo Sabres (amassing 2-3-5 totals from 2014-2016) as a bottom-six forward.

With Sean Kuraly‘s postseason emergence as the double overtime hero in Game 5 of the Bruins First Round Atlantic Division matchup with the Ottawa Senators in Boston’s short-lived 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs run, Czarnik’s got some competition for a spot on the fourth line.

But enough about the “glue guys” for a moment. Let’s turn our attention to David Pastrnak, shall we?

The 70-point scorer last season reached the end of his entry-level contract on July 1st and became a restricted free agent without arbitration rights.

After watching fellow young and talented scorers, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl receive massive pay raises, the 21-year-old winger from the Czech Republic was left wondering just how high his stock could go.

Agent, J.P. Barry, kept the hockey world on edge, as Pastrnak was reported to have considered a venture to the KHL if no common ground with the Bruins could be found, after NHL Network analyst, Brian Lawton, had already scared diehard Boston fans by surmising that Pastrnak would likely be traded.

Fans around the league thought they’d seen this before with Boston (remember Phil Kessel or Dougie Hamilton? Yeah, those guys were also represented by Barry during their tumultuous fallouts with the Bruins).

But analysts and fans league-wide were wrong. Kind of.

They had seen something just like this before– except it was with Torey Krug and Reilly Smith.

Krug and Smith had held out all summer long in 2014, coming off of their then-best career seasons, on the heels of a President’s Trophy winning 2013-2014 Bruins squad. They were RFAs, they were young and they were looking to get paid.

Deals sometimes take time and their extension negotiations caused them to miss the first day of training camp in September 2014.

Enter David Pastrnak and the 2017 offseason.

Boston’s best scorer on the same line as Boston’s other best scorer (Brad Marchand), together encompassing Boston’s best two-way forward (Patrice Bergeron) was due his lion’s share.

Tweets came from all sources and reporters drew the lines. Pastrnak and Sweeney were engaged in a standoff.

Except it was all just a numbers game.

McDavid’s 8-year, $100 million contract extension ($12.500 million cap hit) and Draisaitl’s  8-year, $68 million extension ($8.500 million cap hit) with Edmonton were worth aiming for, but when Bo Horvat struck a 6-year, $33 million deal ($5.500 million cap hit), Pastrnak’s amazing technicolor dreamcoat salary demands faltered a bit.

There was never any question as to whether Pastrnak was worth upwards of $7.000 almost $8.000 million a season, but trends in the market ultimately dictate one way or another how internal negotiations go.

So Sweeney pulled off an extremely club friendly $6.667 million cap hit on a 6-year, $40 million contract extension for Pastrnak. This, one season after extending Marchand for another eight years at only $6.125 million AAV, is some serious cap management at its best, almost impossible dream.

Especially when one considers that McDavid and Draisaitl are a costly $21 million-a-season for the next eight seasons in Edmonton (which is about 28% of the Oilers total player’s payroll).

Marchand and Pastrnak will cost the Bruins a combined $12.792 million-a-season for the next six years. Add Bergeron’s $6.875 million cap hit to that total and they’re still $1.333 million under 2/3’s of Edmonton’s best line ($19.667 million a year for Boston’s first line for the next six seasons, compared to the $21 million for McDavid and Draisaitl alone– Milan Lucic’s current cap hit is $6.000 million, if you were wondering).

Sweeney’s commitment to the core in Boston and letting his prospects develop may pan out this season with a longer run than last season’s First Round exit.

Adding Anders Bjork to the mix and a full season of Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson, as well as Charlie McAvoy, is sure to make this year’s Bruins team a fun one to watch.

It’s not about the main additions of Kenny Agostino and Paul Postma to the black and gold, but rather how far will the kids go?

They’re not the young, talented, and once-in-a-generation skillful Toronto Maple Leafs, per se, but Bruce Cassidy’s Bruins might be able to skate with them this season.

Offseason Grade: B

Grading the 2017 offseason for the Bruins wasn’t contingent upon re-signing David Pastrnak or adding a top-notch *cough cough overpaid because of a lack of available good free agents* free agent– it involved a thoughtfully calculated formula of “did they do anything stupid?” and “did they continue to make a commitment to their youth infused core, moving forward?” (the answers, of course, are “no” and “yes”– don’t be a dummy, trust Don Sweeney on this one, for once).

Extra credit for not shelling out $6 million on an over 30-year-old forward for the next five or six years (maybe David Backes will rebound this season– hopefully). Don’t stray from the formula (they didn’t).

Down the Frozen River Podcast #70- 2017-2018 Atlantic Division Preview

The Original Trio gets carried away talking about the Vegas Golden Knights masterplan for ruining everything. Additionally, Nick, Colby and Connor discuss the recent signings and NHL headlines, as well as what to do with remaining unsigned RFAs and a 2017-2018 Atlantic Division preview that’s full of the hottest takes in the land.

As is now tradition, find the latest episode here on our Libsyn page.

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and/or on Stitcher.

Florida Panthers 2017-’18 Season Preview

Florida Panthers

35-36-11, 81 points, sixth in the Atlantic Division

Additions: W Evgeni Dadonov, C Micheal Haley, RW Radim Vrbata

Subtractions: G Reto Berra (signed with ANA), F Jussi Jokinen (signed with EDM), C Jon Marchessault (drafted by VGK), F Kyle Rau (signed with MIN), D Brent Regner (signed with DAL), C Michael Sgarbossa (signed with WPG), W Reilly Smith (traded to VGK), RW Paul Thompson (signed with VGK), W Thomas Vanek (signed with VAN)

Offseason Analysis: For some, the 2015-‘16 season feels like yesterday. To others, it was ages ago.

Then there’s Florida.

2016 marked the Panthers’ second playoff appearance since 2000’s sweep by Jersey, and Florida earned that berth in the most dominating way: winning the Atlantic by six points over archrival Tampa.

Though Florida was eliminated in the first round, the future looked bright. C Aleksander Barkov, C Nick Bjugstad, D Aaron Ekblad, C Jonathan Huberdeau, Smith and F Vincent Trocheck all had yet to turn 25-years-old, and they were led by ageless wonder RW Jaromir Jagr.

A year later, although that core remained intact, the Panthers found themselves golfing early, missing the playoffs by 14 points.

It’s one thing to narrowly miss the playoffs, but how could something like this happen?

One problem was Florida’s slow start. Former head coach Gerrard Gallant’s (now Vegas’ coach) Panthers started 11-10-1 before being infamously sacked after losing 3-2 at Carolina, but general-manager-turned-head-coach Tom Rowe proved unable to turn the squad around.

Maybe it was the slow start, or maybe it was the rash firing of the best head coach in franchise history, but since I’m a numbers guy (like Panthers management claims), I believe the answer lies in Florida’s goals against. During the 2015-’16 season, the Panthers scored 232 goals and allowed only 200 for a +32 differential. Last year, Florida scored 210 times (22 less than before) and allowed 237 tallies (37 more) for a -27 differential, a net change of -59.

Where did those opposing goals come from?

I believe the answer falls squarely on the front office’s shoulders. During the playoff season, Florida allowed 29.5 shots to reach G Roberto Luongo per game, tying for 13th-best in the NHL. Last season, that number climbed to 31.6 shots-per-game – the eighth-worst mark. To be fair, Luongo didn’t have the best of campaigns with a .915 save percentage and 2.68 GAA, but the fact that defensemen Brian Campbell, 25-year-old Erik Gudbranson and 26-year-old Dmitry Kulikov all departed the team before last season began, for no other apparent reason than supposed analytics, played a major role.

Trying to resolve this situation and get his squad back to where it belongs, re-anointed GM Dale Tallon elected to not resign 45-year-old Jagr (16-30-46), allow 26-year-old Marchessault (30-21-51) to be selected in the expansion draft (but, why?) and trade 26-year-old Smith (15-22-37) to Vegas.

You read that correctly: Florida thinks offense was the problem.

Don’t get me wrong: 28-year-old Dadonov (30-36-66, KHL) and 36-year-old Vrbata (20-35-55, Arizona) will be valuable additions in replacing Jagr and Marchessault, but it’s a question if Florida’s squeaking wheel didn’t receive the grease. Even if the plan was to draft the elite defenseman of the future, Tallon didn’t select one until Max Gildon of the US NTDP in the third round. Instead, he chose RW Owen Tippett with his first pick for a club with a lot of talent on that side already.

This preview isn’t an attack on advanced analytics – I’m a fan in most instances. However, this preview is an attack on GMs changing course while building arguably the most success the franchise has ever seen (yes, I know Florida won the 1996 Eastern Conference). Unloading young offensive talent – and Jagr – a year after keeping only half the defensive corps is a recipe for disaster, both now and for the immediate future of this organization.

Instead of building a team around a desired analytic, maybe management should have learned which stat was already working and build the rest of its team around that core. Now, Florida may be left in shambles for the foreseeable future.

Offseason Grade: F

First and foremost, letting, no, working out a deal with Vegas to ensure Marchessault was selected in the expansion draft was a crazy idea. That being said, even with the departures of him and Jagr, I still feel that the Panthers’ offense is capable of showing signs of growth with Dadonov and Vrbata in comparison to last year. But, until the blue line improves, Florida will not able to climb much further than seventh place in the Atlantic Division.

Arizona Coyotes 2017-2018 Season Preview

Unknown-3Arizona Coyotes

30-42-10, 70 points, 6th in the Pacific Division (’16-’17)

Additions: D Andrew Campbell, D Adam Clendening, F Nick Cousins, F Emerson Etem, D Joel Hanley, D Brandon Hickey, D Niklas Hjalmarsson, F Mario Kempe, F Michael Latta, G Merrick Madsen, G Antti Raanta, F Zac Rinaldo, F Mike Sislo, F Derek Stepan

Subtractions: F Alexander Burmistrov (signed with VAN), F Craig Cunningham (retired), F Laurent Dauphin (traded to CHI), D Anthony DeAngelo (traded to NYR), F Shane Doan (retired), F Grayson Downing (signed with EDM), F Peter Holland (signed with MTL), G Chad Johnson (acquired from CGY as a pending-UFA, then signed with BUF), F Josh Jooris (signed with CAR), D Jamie McBain (signed with TB), F Jeremy Morin (signed with Yugra Khanty-Mansiysk, KHL), F Mitchell Moroz (signed with Idaho Steelheads, ECHL), F Chris Mueller (signed with TOR), D Connor Murphy (traded to CHI), D Chris Pronger (retired), G Mike Smith (traded to CGY), D Jarred Tinordi (signed with PIT), F Brendan Warren (traded to PHI), F Radim Vrbata (signed with FLA)

Still Unsigned: F Anthony Duclair, D Zbynek Michalek, F Garret Ross, F Branden Troock, F Joe Whitney

Offseason Analysis: In short, the puns continue as Arizona Coyotes general manager John Chayka continues to “Chayk-a” things up. As is deemed by John-Chayka’s-magical-technicolor-masterplan, the Coyotes have turned the tables upside-down (again), but this time for the better (on paper).

Chayka’s influence of analytics in the front office of the original hockey club in the Southwest desert region (ignoring the State of California’s teams) led to a -63 goal differential in 2016-2017, which happened to be the worst goal differential in the Pacific Division, despite finishing second-to-last in final standings.

Sometimes the numbers don’t add up, but the Coyotes aren’t pulling a page from the Florida Panthers, where it seems every calculator has been thrown out of the building after one bad year. Instead, they’re going forward with their renovations and transforming this fixer upper of an organization.

Don’t let that distract you from the fact that Chayka’s 2017 offseason plans went out and nabbed F Derek Stepan and G Antti Raanta from the New York Rangers for a reasonable price of D Anthony DeAngelo and a 2017 1st round pick (7th overall, F Lias Andersson).

Stepan has amassed four seasons in a row of 50-plus points in scoring and has only recorded point totals less than 50 in two out of his seven career NHL seasons (21-24-45 totals in his rookie, 2010-2011 campaign and 18-26-44 totals in the 48-game lockout shortened season of 2012-2013). In short, Stepan is a quality top-6 forward that provides some much needed punch for Arizona’s offense.

A much improved defense in the form of Niklas Hjalmarsson alone provides stability in front of the goal with powerful shutdown combinations on the blue line that the Coyotes likely haven’t seen in at least a few years. Hjalmarsson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jakob Chychrun and Alex Goligoski are a solid core group of defensemen to cycle through night-in-and-night-out.

And the addition of Raanta ensures the careful transition of power from the days of Mike Smith in goal to the days of Raanta as the expected starter and Louis Domingue ready to balance the workload if required.

Domingue’s 2016-2017 campaign was largely uneventful with a 3.08 goals against average and a .908 save percentage in 31 games played. Both stats were worse than the year prior, though Domingue played in eight more games in 2015-2016.

Raanta’s increased workload comes on the heels of a 2.26 GAA and .922 SV% in 30 games played last season. While Raanta settles in as a starting goaltender at the ripe age of 28-years-old, Domingue can take his time further establishing his game as potentially one of the league’s best backups, given that he’s only 25 and entering his goaltending prime.

In the long run, Chayka added some much needed faces to the franchise. He’s built his core (Dylan Strome, Max Domi, Anthony Duclair, Ekman-Larsson), now he’s added Stepan, Hjalmarsson, Raanta and friends to the mix. Arizona won’t be a playoff team for another season, but things are looking up if they could only figure out where they’ll be playing, considering the lingering overcast skies of Glendale’s acceptance of the franchise.

Is it worth noting that Chayka committed larceny by trading Smith for what he got in return (a conditional 3rd round pick, the rights to Chad Johnson and Brandon Hickey)? Granted, Johnson jettisoned for Buffalo, but the point is this– Arizona wiped off Smith’s contract as clean as they took on Pavel Datsyuk and Chris Pronger’s final year(s) on the books.

It’s incredible when you think about it. GMs are weird.

Offseason Grade: B-

Chayka filled the need of retooling the core this offseason, but more work needs to be done to improve the depth (whether that’s let time dictate the future or add one more piece to the puzzle, we’ll see).

Vancouver Canucks 2017-2018 Season Preview

imgres-2Vancouver Canucks

30-43-9, 69 points, 7th in the Pacific Division (’16-’17)

Additions: F Alex Burmistrov, D Michael Del Zotto, F Sam Gagner, G Anders Nilsson, D Patrick Wiercioch

Subtractions: D Chad Billins (signed with Linköping HC, SHL), G Michael Garteig (signed to an AHL deal with the Utica Comets), F Alexandre Grenier (signed with FLA), D Philip Larsen (signed with Salavat Yulaev Ufa, KHL), G Ryan Miller (signed with ANA), D Tom Nilsson (signed with Djurgårdens IF, SHL), F Borna Rendulic (signed with Pelicans, Liiga),  F Drew Shore (signed with ZSC, NLA), D Nikita Tryamkin (signed with Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg, KHL), F Michael Zalewski (signed with Straubing Tigers, DEL)

Still Unsigned: F Joseph Cramarossa, F Bo Horvat, F Jack Skille

Offseason Analysis: Despite finishing 29th in a league of 30 teams last year, the Vancouver Canucks have much to be looking forward to this season. Sam Gagner joins the club after one successful season with the Columbus Blue Jackets that has reinvigorated his career and looks to add much needed depth to compliment the likes of Daniel and Henrik Sedin, Loui Eriksson, Derek Dorsett and Bo Horvat (though Horvat is still an unsigned RFA).

Yes, production was down all-around for the Canucks last season, but one thing was always missing and that was a durable group of bottom-six/top-nine forwards. Gagner’s 50 points (18 goals, 32 assists) are sure to improve the -61 goal differential for Vancouver’s 2016-2017 campaign as Eriksson seeks to rebound from a dismal 24-point season (11 goals, 13 assists in 63 games) in his first year of a 6-year, $36 million contract.

The Sedin twins aren’t getting any younger (they’re 36-years-old entering the 2017-2018 season) and finding the right winger to join their tandem is imperative to scoring success. Luckily for the Canucks, they’ve got options, but only if the price is right.

Horvat still needs a contract as we embark on the month of September, where training camp lurks around the corner and preseason action kicks off. General manager Jim Benning knows just how important it is for the 22-year-old to not miss a step in his development.

Ideally, a fair contract for both sides should’ve been worked out by now, but with Leon Draisaitl‘s pay raise in Edmonton setting an example for fellow young, talented players, like Horvat and Boston’s David Pastrnak, it’s no surprise that neither side has budged to an agreement.

Whereas Draisaitl improved from a 51-point season in 2015-2016 to a 77-point year last season as a 21-year-old, Horvat is only riding back-to-back 40-plus points a year since the 2015-2016 campaign (18-24-40 totals in ’15-’16– 81 games played, 20-32-52 totals in ’16-’17– 82 games played). Likewise, Horvat doesn’t have the whole “Connor McDavid is literally my linemate so pay me like the demigod that I am” argument going for him.

Nonetheless, Horvat is a player to build around, with the Sedins nearing retirement and Markus Granlund coming into his own as a 24-year-old forward who had a career year last season (19-13-32 totals in 69 games played).

Gaining experience pays off and it is destined to help Vancouver ascend the rungs of the Pacific Division standings.

While the future of the Canucks’s offense seems intent on rolling with their young guys, one thing that needs attention is the other end of the ice. Vancouver’s defense is nothing to write home about, but luckily Chris Tanev is the only blue liner with three years remaining on their current deal.

This will provide incentive for each defenseman to get better as they age into their prime. Olli Juolevi might be penciled in on the NHL roster sooner rather than later and has an opportunity to compete for a top-6 role.

Finally, goaltender, Ryan Miller, has moved on to role of the Anaheim Ducks backup, leaving Vancouver’s Jacob Markstrom as the presumed starter heading into the preseason. Markstrom has yet to appear in more than 33 games in a single NHL season, but has proven to be durable as he enters “goaltender prime” (if you’re new to the sport, goalies typically develop a little later than skating prospects– this is, of course, not always true when Braden Holtby or Matt Murray exist).

His 2.63 GAA and .910 SV% in 26 games last season is nothing to go crazy over, until you consider what a more experienced and retooled roster in front of him can do to limit shot attempts against of all kinds (on net, wide of the net and blocked). Keep in mind, a goalie has to react to every puck that’s even remotely coming at his/her direction, which can be a lot of work depending on your defense.

Anders Nilsson was signed via free agency, coming off of an impressive role as the backup for the Buffalo Sabres, where he posted a 2.67 GAA and .923 SV%. Nilsson will make a run for the starting role, without a doubt. There’s going to be some healthy competition in front of Vancouver’s twine. All things considered, that’s pretty remarkable for an organization that traded away two, All-Star quality, franchise goaltenders (Roberto Luongo and Cory Schneider) in less than a decade.

Now, Markstrom and Nilsson are no Luongo and Schneider, but they both are only 27-years-old and have shown signs of brilliance.

The untrained eye-test says that this could be a breakout season for Nilsson and a respectable year for Markstrom, showing improvement as his minutes are increased from past years.

Combined, the Canucks are only spending about $6.167 million on a pair of goalies that aren’t going to slow down, like how Miller’s play deteriorated over his years in Vancouver (okay, really since his days in anything but a Sabres uniform).

The Canucks have a shot at moving up from 7th in the Pacific last season to at least 6th in 2017-2018– though they could always surprise everyone and go further.

Offseason Grade: B

As deserving of criticism as Beinning’s moves as general manager have been, this offseason had a different flavor for the Canucks– one in which an emphasis on letting talent develop and bringing the right guys in to help others flourish is apparent, reminiscent of when Vancouver dominated the Western Conference in the late 2000s and early 2010s.

Vegas Golden Knights 2017-2018 Season Preview

vegas_golden_knights_logoVegas Golden Knights

0-0-0, 0 points, 1st in only existing on paper as an expansion team

Additions: F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, D Jake Bischoff, F William Carrier, F David Clarkson, G Oscar Dansk, F Reid Duke, F Cody Eakin, D Deryk Engelland, G Dylan Ferguson, G Marc-Andre Fleury, D Jason Garrison, F Mikhail Grabovski, F Nikita Gusev, F Erik Haula, D Brad Hunt, F Tomas Hyka, F William Karlsson, G Maxime Lagace, F Brendan Leipsic, F Oscar Lindberg, F Jon Marchessault, F Stefan Matteau, D Brayden McNabb, D Jonathon Merrill, D Colin Miller, F James Neal, C Tomas Nosek, F David Perron, G Calvin Pickard, F Teemu Pulkkinen, D Griffin Reinhart, D Luca Sbisa, D Nate Schmidt, F Vadim Shipachyov, F Reilly Smith, D Clayton Stoner, D Shea Theodore, F Paul Thompson, F Alex Tuch, F T.J. Tynan

Subtractions: D Trevor van Riemsdyk (traded to CAR), D David Schlemko (traded to MTL), D Marc Methot (traded to DAL), D Alexei Emelin (traded to NSH), F Connor Brickley (signed with FLA), F Chris Thorburn (signed with STL), G Jean-Francois Berube (signed with CHI)

Still Unsigned: None

Offseason Analysis: The Vegas Golden Knights are set to make their NHL debut as the league’s 31st and newest franchise and fans are ready for action on the ice in the Sin City. With so many offseason transactions, it’s almost like George McPhee was trying to build a team or something! Oh, wait, that’s what he was supposed to do?

Love them or hate them (and really, who could hate the Golden Knights, because they just might have one of the best social media teams in the league), Vegas is here to stay and they came to play.

James Neal, David Perron, Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchessault (51 points in 2016-2017, led the Florida Panthers in scoring) look to lead their veteran core of forwards, while their 2017 1st round pick, Cody Glass, hopes to crack the NHL roster. Oscar Lindberg beckons to breakout, while Vadim Shipachyov aims to leave fans wanting more in his NHL career debut as a 30-year-old after having been a vital part of the KHL (26-50-76 totals in 50 games) last season.

Colin Miller looks to step up his role on the blue line and improve off of an impressive couple of seasons in Boston, while being surrounded by a bunch of other respectable top-4 defensemen.

Arguably their only weakness from the offseason, the Golden Knights have a defense with an average age of 27. That’s with the 11 defensemen currently on the roster before training camp, mind you, and it sounds about right for a team looking to hit the ground running with a defense in its prime.

However, McPhee selected Trevor van Riemsdyk from the Chicago Blackhawks, Alexei Emelin from the Montreal Canadiens and Marc Methot from the Ottawa Senators (three solid defensemen that would make a good core) only to trade them all away to Carolina, Nashville and Dallas, respectively.

It’s fair to say the 2017 Expansion Draft was the most expansion franchise friendly draft of it’s kind in NHL history.

It’s also fair to say the Golden Knights were average at robbing the 30 other teams in the league making their selections. Sin City’s adopted son, Deryk Engelland, is 35 and is not getting any younger. While he’s sure to attract the local crowd, Gerard Gallant cannot rely on him alone to carry the defense,

And Clayton Stoner and Jason Garrison’s combined salary cap hit of $7.850 million doesn’t look spectacular with the likes of Jon Merrill, Miller and Shea Theodore as pending-RFAs. Then again, despite their age (32) Stoner and Garrison are pending-UFAs themselves at season’s end, so it looks like everyone is playing for 1) their jobs in Vegas or 2) their next contract somewhere else.

Vegas’s defense is not bad, just not great.

Though the likes of Jake Bischoff and 2017 draft pick, Nicolas Hague, look promising down the pipeline.

Finally, there’s no question regarding their starting goaltender. Marc-Andre Fleury will surely be true to form in the regular season as one of the NHL’s top-notch goalies. Calvin Pickard is no competition for the starting job, but should perform much better than last year with the Colorado Avalanche because, at least this season, he’ll have a team defense in front of him.

Yet, the biggest question surrounding Fleury’s playing ability for the first time on a team not named the Pittsburgh Penguins concerns just how much playing time he’ll see.

Capping Fleury off around 50 games seems fair, given he’s no Braden Holtby (super elite, 70-plus games-a-season) and he hasn’t reached Henrik Lundqvist status (beginning to age out of playing 1,000,000 minutes– give or take– for the New York Rangers). But even leaving 32 games for Pickard to prove he’s worthy of future starter consideration seems a bit much.

Clearly McPhee identified something in Pickard that he wants him to be part of the team, but with a change of scenery for Oscar Dansk from the Columbus Blue Jackets– where Joonas Korpisalo is the surefire stellar backup to two-time Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky— to the open skies of Vegas, there’s a chance Pickard might have a run for his money.

In fairness, Dansk has yet to appear in a NHL game, but one thing’s for certain– the Golden Knights have a wide open opportunity to foster goaltending depth via healthy competition.

There’s really no telling how the team in Vegas will do in their first year of play. Owner, Bill Foley, expects to be a competitive team out of the gate, while reality might say otherwise (give them two or three years). Nevertheless, their offense is strong, their defense has room to improve and their goaltending is world-class.

One thing is certain, they won’t finish 31st in the league, but they might finish last in the Pacific Division.

Offseason Grade: B

They get a little extra credit for having built one of the better expansion teams on paper since the modern era (1990s).