Down the Frozen River

Tag: Edmonton Oilers

  • Numbers Game: 2018-19 League Forecast Entering February

    Whether you’re looking for love or looking to win the Stanley Cup, February is an active month.

    Some teams are buying in on false promises that will ultimately end in heartbreak. Others are selling and living the single life.

    In either case, most teams will be suited for a stretch run– ’til death do [them] part (or they miss out on the playoffs altogether or are eliminated in the postseason).

    So let’s see if it’s a match between your team and finishing first in the divisional standings in this new forecast based on how the league standings were through January 31, 2019.

    Before you scroll down to the tinder box that is known as the comment section and go bumbling on how wrong these numbers will be, keep in mind there’s no guarantees with any forecast.

    It’s not always about the exact number of points expected on the season, but rather the general trends indicated or “educated” guesses that are shown.

    The focus might be on the spread or positioning in the standings more than any specifics. Context is key and nothing’s impossible until it’s mathematically impossible.

    Without further ado, it’s time to take a look at the potential dates available for this season.

    Projected Standings After Four Months

    Eastern Conference

    Atlantic Division

    1. p-Tampa Bay Lightning, 130 points (50 GP entering Feb. 1st)
    2. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 110 points (49 GP)
    3. x-Montreal Canadiens, 104 points (51 GP)
    4. wc1-Buffalo Sabres, 102 points (50 GP)
    5. wc2-Boston Bruins, 97 points (51 GP)
    6. Florida Panthers, 77 points (48 GP)
    7. Detroit Red Wings, 67 points (51 GP)
    8. Ottawa Senators, 66 points (50 GP)

    In the Atlantic Division the Tampa Bay Lightning are flirting with the President’s Trophy and a 130 point season. But can they take home the best looking person in school or will the Calgary Flames have anything to say about it and steal their date? (more on that later)

    The Toronto Maple Leafs are smitten with 2nd place in their division, but searching for the one to take them all the way (to the Cup). Is this the year that it finally happens?

    While the Boston Bruins have been coming up short in sealing the deal (they went 6-3-3 in January, which was a marginal improvement from 7-7-0 in December), the Montreal Canadiens have been eyeing the last divisional spot in the Atlantic.

    If the Buffalo Sabres can get over their recent dry spell, they’re sure to rebound well and land with the first wild card in the Eastern Conference– successfully reaching the postseason for the first time since 2011.

    At the bottom of the division, it’s more of the same– the exact same (standings-wise) from last month.

    Metropolitan Division

    1. y-New York Islanders, 113 points (49 GP)
    2. x-Pittsburgh Penguins, 99 points (50 GP)
    3. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 98 points (50 GP)
    4. Washington Capitals, 93 points (50 GP)
    5. Carolina Hurricanes, 89 points (50 GP)
    6. New York Rangers, 79 points (50 GP)
    7. Philadelphia Flyers, 73 points (51 GP)
    8. New Jersey Devils, 68 points (50 GP)

    Things are looking up for the New York Islanders as they continue to hookup with some top-notch strategy put forth by head coach, Barry Trotz. Robin Lehner has been stellar and everyone’s buying in on being accountable as a team.

    Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins are in a long-term committed relationship with making the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but will this one bring another ring to it?

    “Don’t go breaking my heart//I wouldn’t if I [actually] tried,” said Sergei Bobrovsky as he let down Columbus Blue Jackets fans with subpar goaltending, despite somehow clinching the last playoff spot in the Metropolitan Division.

    The Stanley Cup looks like it will be in another’s arms given the recent stretch of play from the Washington Capitals as the team goes through a breakup with the postseason for 2019.

    If things get steamy it’s only because the Carolina Hurricanes are storming and desperately making a charge to quench their postseason thirst.

    There’s not much to be said about the bottom three teams in this division either. Even if Carter Hart is stealing hearts in the City of Brotherly Love. Swipe left.

    Western Conference

    Central Division

    1. y-Winnipeg Jets, 116 points (51 GP)
    2. x-Nashville Predators, 96 points (52 GP)
    3. x-Dallas Stars, 86 points (50 GP)
    4. Minnesota Wild, 86 points (50 GP)
    5. Colorado Avalanche, 85 points (50 GP)
    6. St. Louis Blues, 77 points (49 GP)
    7. Chicago Blackhawks, 66 points (51 GP)

    The Winnipeg Jets are soaring on cloud nine with the Central Division title this season as the Nashville Predators have hit some bumps in the road throughout the season.

    It’s a rocky relationship for the Dallas Stars, Minnesota Wild and Colorado Avalanche in terms of playoff berths. The spread between the three teams in the latest forecast indicates it’s still anybody’s game and though the Stars are tagged as being above the cutoff line in this display, they aren’t safe and sound.

    The St. Louis Blues are creeping their way into a playoff spot in reality, but things could very well go back to the way it was before Jordan Binnington came along as the right man to be number one in Blues fans’ hearts.

    Meanwhile, the Chicago Blackhawks might as well consciously uncouple with their expendable assets by the end of the month– if not before.

    Pacific Division

    1. z-Calgary Flames, 123 points (51 GP)
    2. x-Vegas Golden Knights, 108 points (52 GP)
    3. x-San Jose Sharks, 103 points (52 GP)
    4. wc1-Vancouver Canucks, 88 points (51 GP)
    5. wc2-Arizona Coyotes, 87 points (50 GP)
    6. Edmonton Oilers, 79 points (50 GP)
    7. Anaheim Ducks, 74 points (51 GP)
    8. Los Angeles Kings, 65 points (50 GP)

    Things are heating up in Calgary as the Flames have not just been good– they’re really good. Calgary continues to surge into a definite number one seed in not just the Pacific Division, but the Western Conference as a whole.

    What’s more impressive? The Flames are closing in on the Bolts in the President’s Trophy race. A few odd puck bounces going either way could really hamper what everyone thought Tampa’s all season long.

    Meanwhile, the Vegas Golden Knights are feeling lucky as a rematch with the San Jose Sharks is looking more and more like it’s going to happen.

    It’s a wild race for the wild card berths in the Western Conference, which means that the Vancouver Canucks and Arizona Coyotes could end up on either side of the fence, depending on what kind of dance partner they’re interested in acquiring at the trade deadline.

    Is it time to buy, sell or continue to rebuild?

    For the Edmonton Oilers, Anaheim Ducks and Los Angeles Kings, it’s time to rekindle the spark in their lives.

  • DTFR Podcast #144- (The Other) Auston City Limits

    DTFR Podcast #144- (The Other) Auston City Limits

    Auston Matthews signed an extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs. What does this mean for the Leafs? Alex Stalock, Jordan Martinook and Pheonix Copley all signed extensions with their clubs, as Tuukka Rask became the winningest goaltender in Boston Bruins history, Alex Ovechkin became the highest scoring Russian-born NHL player and Paul Maurice reached 1,500 games behind the bench as a head coach.

    The DTFR Duo also reviewed all 31 NHL teams as buyers and/or sellers at the 2019 trade deadline.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

  • DTFR Podcast #142- Chia’s Pets

    DTFR Podcast #142- Chia’s Pets

    The Edmonton Oilers fired their president of hockey operations and General Manager, Peter Chiarelli (April 2015-January 2019). The club officially made the announcement after the DTFR Duo finished recording this week’s episode.

    There won’t be a 2020 World Cup of Hockey and there were a few milestones to go along with a bunch of minor trades made this week.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

  • DTFR Podcast #141- The Midseasonies

    DTFR Podcast #141- The Midseasonies

    Nick and Connor talk the latest trades, Torts drama (and latest record), Casey DeSmith’s extension with the Pittsburgh Penguins, as well as a tribute to the careers of Rick Nash and Josh Gorges who both announced their retirement this week.

    Additionally, what’s up with the Edmonton Oilers and St. Louis Blues this season and why can’t they just pick a side? Plus, it’s time to hand out awards for being slightly more than halfway through the 2018-19 regular season. #FlamingNotToFlamingHot

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

  • Couturier nets hat trick against Bruins, Flyers win, 4-3

    Sean Couturier recorded his first career hat trick in the Philadelphia Flyers’, 4-3, victory Wednesday night over the Boston Bruins on home ice.

    Oscar Lindblom had the only other goal for the Flyers, while David Pastrnak and Peter Cehlarik (two goals) did the scoring for Boston.

    Carter Hart (5-5-1 record, 2.72 goals against average, .915 save percentage in 11 games played) made 39 saves on 42 shots against for a .929 SV% in the win for Philadelphia.

    Meanwhile, Bruins netminder, Jaroslav Halak (13-8-2, 2.46 GAA, .920 SV% in 25 GP) turned aside just 15 out of 19 shots faced for a .789 SV% in the loss and allowed four or more goals in his fourth straight appearance.

    With his goal in the first period, Pastrnak surpassed Barry Pederson for the most goals in Bruins franchise history by a player prior to his 23rd birthday.

    Pastrnak has 121 career goals, while Pederson notched 120 before turning 23 (3rd-5th, Bobby Orr, 113 goals, Joe Thornton, 101 and Tom Fergus, 98).

    As a result of the loss, Boston is now 16-4-3 when scoring first this season.

    The B’s fell to 26-15-5 (57 points) on the season and remained 3rd in the Atlantic Division, while the Flyers improved to 18-23-6 (42 points) and now trail the New Jersey Devils by one point for 7th in the Metropolitan Division. In other words, Philadelphia is still last in the Metro.

    After Colby Cave was claimed off waivers by the Edmonton Oilers on Tuesday, the Bruins brass called up 23-year-old, Peter Cehlarik, from the Providence Bruins (AHL).

    Boston head coach, Bruce Cassidy, assured reporters prior to Wednesday night’s battle that Cehlarik would be inserted on the second line, sliding in to the left of David Krejci and Jake DeBrusk, with David Backes as the odd forward out of the lineup.

    Backes joined John Moore and Steven Kampfer as the healthy scratches out of the lineup against Philadelphia, while Joakim Nordstrom remains sidelined with a non-displaced fibula fracture.

    Cassidy made no other changes to his lineup.

    Cehlarik riled up the Wells Fargo Center crowd when he boarded Travis Konecny at 1:25 into the first period– even more so when the Flyers weren’t able to score on the ensuing skater advantage.

    A few minutes later, Jori Lehtera took a skate to the sin bin for tripping Boston defender, Brandon Carlo, at 4:14.

    It only took 15 seconds on the power play for the Bruins to crack the code on Hart as Torey Krug sent a cross-ice pass to Pastrnak (27) for the one-timer from one knee near the side of the goal to give Boston the lead, 1-0.

    Pastrnak’s 13th power play goal leads the NHL in that stat category and was assisted by Krug (26) and Brad Marchand (33) at 4:39 of the first period.

    Moments later, Cehlarik (1) followed up with his first goal of the season in his 2018-19 debut as Boston entered the zone on a rush led by DeBrusk that began with a pass from Krejci through the neutral zone.

    Similar to Pastrnak’s goal, Cehlarik received a pass on the open weak side for the one-timer, but from the opposite side of the ice from where Pastrnak scored his goal from.

    DeBrusk (4) and Krejci (27) were credited with the assists on Cehlarik’s first goal of the night and the Bruins led, 2-0, at 9:12.

    A few minutes later, Philadelphia answered back on the scoreboard with a similar rush going the opposite way resulting in Lindblom (5) firing a shot past Halak’s blocker side on the short side to cut the lead in half, 2-1.

    Claude Giroux (37) and Ivan Provorov (12) had the assists on Lindblom’s goal for the Flyers at 12:44.

    Entering the first intermission, the Bruins led, 2-1, on the scoreboard and, 12-7, in shots on goal.

    Boston also held onto the advantage in blocked shots (6-5) and hits (12-6), while Philly led in takeaways (4-3) and giveaways (7-2). Both teams were 50-50 in face-off win percentage, while the Flyers were 0/1 on the power play and the B’s were 1/1 on the skater advantage through one period.

    Early in the second period, with momentum going their way, the Flyers pounced early on a shot by Jakub Voracek that was tipped in by Couturier (17) to tie the game, 2-2, at 5:32 of the middle frame.

    Voracek (27) and Travis Sanheim (11) notched the assists on the goal and less than a minute later, Philadelphia had a tremendous opportunity to take advantage of the scoreboard on the power play after Patrice Bergeron tripped up Couturier at 6:10.

    Just 37 seconds into the ensuing skater advantage for the Flyers, after Sean Kuraly and Chris Wagner failed to convert on a shorthanded bid and were caught up ice, Philadelphia raced back the other way– catching the Bruins lagging behind the play.

    With the B’s severely outnumbered, Couturier (18) rocketed home a one-timer goal past Halak to give the Flyers their first lead of the night, 3-2, at 6:47 of the second period.

    Wayne Simmonds (8) and Giroux (38) had the assists on Philadelphia’s power play goal and first lead of the night.

    Late in the second period, Lehtera hit Ryan Donato from behind and drove Donato’s face into the boards right where the glass meets the dasher, leaving Donato bloodied and headed for the dressing room as per concussion protocol.

    Lehtera was given a five-minute major penalty for boarding and a game misconduct at 16:48, resulting in a power play for Boston that would carry into the third period.

    The B’s failed to convert on their longest– guaranteed– extra skater advantage of the night.

    After 40 minutes of play, Philadelphia held onto the lead, 3-2, despite being outshot by Boston, 29-14 (17-7 in the second period alone for the Bruins).

    The Flyers dominated blocked shots (18-7), takeaways (9-7) and giveaways (10-5) through two periods as the Bruins entered the second intermission leading in hits (17-13) and face-off win% (58-42).

    Both teams were 1/2 on the power play entering the third period.

    Early in the final frame, Philadelphia was caught up in a poor line change, resulting in an automatic bench minor penalty for too many men on the ice.

    Flyers head coach, Scott Gordon, sent Konecny to serve the minor penalty at 3:39 and Philadelphia killed off the ensuing shorthanded bid.

    Scott Laughton hooked Pastrnak at 12:00 of the third period, but the Bruins did not score on the resulting power play opportunity.

    Having killed off Laughton’s minor infraction, the Flyers went for the jugular in the vulnerable minute after a power play.

    From the face-off dot to the right of Halak, Couturier (19) unloaded a wrist shot that Halak got a chunk of– but not enough of– as the puck twirled past the Boston goaltender and into the twine for Couturier’s first career hat trick at 13:53 of the third period.

    Philadelphia led, 4-2, thanks to Couturier’s three goals and Lindblom (9) and Provorov (13) recorded the assists on his third goal Wednesday night.

    With under two minutes to go in regulation, Cassidy pulled Halak for the extra attacker.

    Boston was able to bring the game back to within one-goal as Marchand threw the puck towards net from almost the goal line for Cehlarik (2) to redirect for his second goal of the night at 18:54.

    Marchand (34) and Krug (27) tallied the assists as the Bruins trailed, 4-3.

    While attempting to disrupt an otherwise surefire empty net goal for the Flyers, Krejci interfered with Couturier at 19:44 and was surprisingly handed a two-minute minor penalty instead of automatically awarding Couturier with his fourth goal of the night.

    The Bruins finished the game shorthanded as the final horn sounded on Philadelphia’s, 4-3, victory.

    Boston finished the night leading in shots on goal (42-19), hits (18-17) and face-off win% (57-43), while the Flyers led in blocked shots (30-8) and giveaways (13-10).

    The B’s went 1/4 on the power play Wednesday night, while Philly was 1/3.

    For the first time since March 3-8, 1999, a player (Couturier) registered a hat trick in the National Hockey League in six consecutive days.

    Of note, Bruins captain, Zdeno Chara tied Teemu Selanne for the 3rd most regular season games played by a European born player in league history, reaching his 1,451st career game on Wednesday.

    Boston heads back home to take on the St. Louis Blues on Thursday and finish up three games in four nights with a matchup on Saturday against the New York Rangers at TD Garden.

    Saturday’s game is also the last game before the All-Star break for the Bruins. Pastrnak is the lone representative for the B’s that will be heading to SAP Center in San Jose, California for the weekend of festivities.

  • DTFR Podcast #140- All-Star Finnish Trivia

    DTFR Podcast #140- All-Star Finnish Trivia

    Thoughts on the conclusion and controversies of the 2019 IIHF World Junior Championship, as well as a look at the schedule around the league as we near the All-Star Weekend festivities and bye week(s). Nick puts Connor on the spot and asks him some trivia questions that only went so well.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

  • Game of the week: December 31-January 6

    Welcome to 2019! Nothing quite rings in the new year like hockey (shh, nobody asked you what you think, college football!), and in case you haven’t heard, the Blackhawks and Bruins are headed to South Bend, Ind. for this year’s iteration of the Winter Classic.

    However, there’s far more than that tilt going down this week, so here’s all the fixtures for 2018’s finale and the first six days of 2019.

    NHL SCHEDULE: December 31-january 6
    TIME (ALL TIMES EASTERN) VISITOR HOST NATIONAL BROADCAST(S)/
    Result
    Monday, December 31
    12:30 p.m. Nashville Washington 6-3
    1 p.m. Vancouver New Jersey 0-4
    6 p.m. Pittsburgh Minnesota 3-2
    6 p.m. New York Islanders Buffalo Sabres 3-1
    6 p.m. Philadelphia Carolina 1-3
    7 p.m. New York Rangers St. Louis Blues 2-1
    7 p.m. Ottawa Columbus 3-6
    7:30 p.m. Florida Detroit 4-3 (SO)
    8 p.m. Tampa Bay Anaheim 2-1 (OT)
    8 p.m. Los Angeles Colorado 3-2 (OT)
    8:30 p.m. Montréal Dallas 3-2 (OT)
    9 p.m. San Jose Calgary 5-8
    9 p.m. Winnipeg Edmonton 4-3
    Tuesday, January 1
    1 p.m. Boston Chicago 4-2
    8:30 p.m. Philadelphia Nashville 0-4
    9 p.m. Los Angeles Vegas 0-2
    Wednesday, January 2
    7 p.m. Vancouver Ottawa 4-3 (OT)
    7 p.m. Calgary Detroit 5-3
    7 p.m. Pittsburgh Penguins New York Rangers 7-2
    8:30 p.m. New Jersey Dallas 4-5
    9:30 p.m. San Jose Colorado 5-4
    9:30 p.m. Edmonton Arizona 3-1
    Thursday, January 3
    2 p.m. Minnesota Toronto 4-3
    7 p.m. Calgary Boston 4-6
    7 p.m. Florida Buffalo 3-4
    7 p.m. Carolina Philadelphia 5-3
    7:30 p.m. Chicago Blackhawks New York Islanders 2-3 (OT)
    7:30 p.m. Vancouver Montréal 0-2
    8 p.m. Washington St. Louis 2-5
    10:30 p.m. Tampa Bay Los Angeles 6-2
    Friday, January 4
    7 p.m. Winnipeg Pittsburgh 0-4
    7:30 p.m. Nashville Detroit 3-4 (OT)
    7:30 p.m. Columbus Carolina 2-4
    8 p.m. Washington Dallas 1-2 (OT)
    9 p.m. New York Rangers Colorado Avalanche 1-6
    9 p.m. New Jersey Arizona 3-2 (SO)
    10 p.m. Vegas Anaheim 3-2
    Saturday, January 5
    1 p.m. Calgary Philadelphia 3-2 (OT)
    1 p.m. Minnesota Ottawa 4-3
    7 p.m. Buffalo Boston 1-2
    7 p.m. Vancouver Toronto 0-5
    7 p.m. Nashville Montréal 4-1
    7 p.m. Columbus Florida 4-3 (OT)
    8 p.m. New York Islanders St. Louis Blues 4-3
    10 p.m. Edmonton Los Angeles 0-4
    11 p.m. Tampa Bay San Jose 2-5
    Sunday, January 6
    1 p.m. Carolina Ottawa RDS2
    4 p.m. New Jersey Vegas SN
    4 p.m. New York Rangers Arizona Coyotes  
    5 p.m. Dallas Winnipeg ESPN+
    5 p.m. Washington Detroit NHLN
    8 p.m. Edmonton Anaheim SN, SN360
    8 p.m. Chicago Pittsburgh NBCSN

    If you enjoyed the 1988 and 1990 Stanley Cup Finals and rivalries are your jam, this week’s slate of games was made just for you. Both Boston and Edmonton squared off against two rivals this week, with the Oilers taking on Winnipeg on Monday and the Kings on Saturday and the Bruins playing Chicago and Buffalo on Tuesday and Saturday, respectively.

    Speaking of the Kings, their Tuesday tilt in Vegas was a rematch of the First Round from the most recent Stanley Cup playoffs – the only such tilt of the week.

    Finally, in the “Player Returns” department, W Dmitrij Jaskin takes the cake for the longest tenure with his former club, as he was claimed off waivers by the Capitals earlier this season after six campaigns with the Blues – Washington’s opponent on Thursday.

    In an attempt to avoid repeating teams too frequently, I turned my attention away from the Winter Classic (we all knew how it was going to go anyways) and the Flames and Sharks’ major showdown. Instead, let’s take in a pivotal game in the race for the Western Conference’s second wild card.

    To put things simply, life has been much better for the Oilers and their faithful fans.

    As recently as three weeks ago, Edmonton was in third place in the Pacific Division and looking like a real threat for the remainder of the season. However, that impressive 9-2-2 run that got them to that point is long forgotten now, as the 19-19-3 Oil enter tonight’s tilt on a disastrous 1-7-0 skid, accented by last night’s embarrassing 4-0 loss to lowly Los Angeles.

    Without a doubt, the worst aspect of Edmonton’s play over this eight-game run has been the play of its two goaltenders. 12-8-1 G Mikko Koskinen has received six of those starts, but his .869 save percentage and 4.45 GAA in those appearances (compared to a .915 season save percentage and corresponding 2.64 GAA) hardly reflect starters’ numbers.

    However, handing the reins over to 7-11-2 G Cam Talbot has rarely been the fix Head Coach Ken Hitchcock’s club has hoped for, as almost every time they’ve turned to him they’ve gotten the same old Talbot they’ve gotten all year. Boasting an .893 save percentage and 3.23 GAA for the season, Talbot has stayed true to his form for this campaign in his last four appearances since December 16, posting almost identical .888 and 3.25 marks in those outings.

    With both Koskinen and Talbot seeing action in yesterday’s tilt in Tinseltown, it remains unclear which will earn the nod this evening. Koskinen did start against the Kings, but he only logged 13:57 of action before getting pulled due to allowing three goals on eight shots (.625 save percentage). Conversely, though Talbot saw more TOI, his 14-for-15 performance (.933 save percentage) in relief could earn him the opportunity to reclaim his starting job tonight.

    Though not the sole reason for the netminders’ struggles, part of their problems might be related to the Oil’s defensive play of late. Edmonton has allowed an average of 30.7 shots on goal per game this season, a mark that is good enough for 11th-best in the NHL. However, that mark has climbed ever so slightly to 31.75 shots per game in Edmonton’s games since December 16, the 14th-highest in the league in that stretch.

    If any are to blame for that defensive decline, it is surely not F Jujhar Khaira (3.8 hits per game since December 16), C Connor McDavid (10 takeaways in the last eight games) or D Darnell Nurse (1.5 blocks per game during this run), as all three lead the team in their respective statistics.

    There’s certainly still time for Edmonton to rediscover its winning groove, but the Oilers must make sure to stop the bleeding against Anaheim tonight, considering it is those very Ducks they’re trailing by four points for the Western Conference’s second wild card.

    Speaking of teams looking to get off the schneid, the 19-16-7 Anaheim Ducks also fit the bill considering their seven-game losing skid that has seen them earn only two of a possible 14 points.

    Since December 18 (the date of Anaheim’s 3-1 loss at Madison Square Garden, the first of these consecutive losses), no offense in the NHL has been as anemic as the Ducks’. The entire league has averaged 2.84 goals per game since that date, but Anaheim has ranked dead last with an uninspiring 1.57 goals per game.

    Unsurprisingly, no players have averaged a point per game or better during this losing skid – not even the usually reliable C Ryan Getzlaf (9-20-29 totals in 36 games played) or W Ondrej Kase (11-8-19 in 24 appearances). In fact, only eight of Anaheim’s 20 skaters have registered more than a lone point in the Ducks’ last seven games – an alarmingly low number, especially for a team without a dominant top line of the likes of Boston, Colorado or Dallas.

    Of course, it’s not as if Anaheim’s offense has exactly lit up the scoreboard this season. At this point in the campaign, the Ducks have averaged 2.4 goals per game for 2018-19, a mark that ranks second-worst ahead of only their crosstown rivals’ 2.26. However, dropping almost three-quarters of a goal per game is far more noticeable for a team lacking in offensive firepower than it is for a club like Tampa Bay that has averaged over four goals per game for the entire season. The Bolts can spare a goal here or there – the Ducks most certainly cannot.

    And so, that brings us to our usual question: how does all this factor into tonight’s game?

    This evening’s tilt features weak goaltending squaring off against a lackluster offense, and – by virtue of an NHL game being unable to end in a tie – one of them must win.

    Usually I would favor the offense in that matchup, but Anaheim’s attack has been so awful I simply can’t bare to do it. Similarly, I think the Oilers will be fired up to score some goals this evening considering they got blanked by the *former* worst team in the league less than 24 hours ago. Edmonton should come away with two points tonight and pull within two points (not to mention its game in hand on Anaheim) of a playoff spot.

  • DTFR Podcast #139- They Ran Out Of Beer!

    DTFR Podcast #139- They Ran Out Of Beer!

    A bunch of minor trades were made in the last week, the 2019 Honda NHL All-Star Game rosters were released, as well as the 2019-20 outdoor game schedule. Nick and Connor also discuss the legacy that was the 2019 Bridgestone NHL Winter Classic and the 2019 IIHF World Junior Quarterfinal upsets.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.

    *Editor’s Note: Of course, after recording this week’s episode, the Philadelphia Flyers claimed G Mike McKenna off waivers from the Vancouver Canucks.

  • Numbers Game: 2018-19 League Forecast Entering January

    Happy New Year!

    It’s time to figure out whether or not your team has a legitimate chance of winning the Stanley Cup, making the playoffs, being a seller at the trade deadline or a basement dwelling rebuilder in desperate need of anything but what is happening right now.

    Teams have begun to reach the official halfway point in the regular season (41 games played out of an 82-game schedule) as the calendar flips from 2018 to 2019.

    Here’s a glance at the latest forecast based on how the league standings were through December 31, 2018.

    Keeping in mind, there’s no guarantees with any forecast, but rather general trends and “educated” guesses. It’s not always about the exact number of points expected on the season. Sometimes the focus is on the spread or each team’s positioning in the standings.

    There’s always context. Plus, nothing’s impossible until it’s mathematically impossible.

    So let’s take a look around the league and figure out the future– well, rest of this season, at least.

    Projected Standings After Three Months

    Eastern Conference

    Atlantic Division

    1. p-Tampa Bay Lightning, 125 points (40 GP entering Jan. 1st)
    2. x-Toronto Maple Leafs, 111 points (39 GP)
    3. x-Boston Bruins, 98 points (39 GP)
    4. wc2-Montreal Canadiens, 97 points (40 GP)
    5. Buffalo Sabres, 96 points (40 GP)
    6. Florida Panthers, 84 points (38 GP)
    7. Detroit Red Wings, 75 points (41 GP)
    8. Ottawa Senators, 72 points (40 GP)

    The Tampa Bay Lightning are the dominant team in the NHL right now. There’s no other comparison. They’re in a league of their own.

    Though the Toronto Maple Leafs have surged into one of the league’s most prominent teams this season, they’re no match for the Lightning in the regular season standings Atlantic Division race.

    The postseason might be another story– too bad we won’t get to see these teams meet up in the Eastern Conference Final with the current playoff format.

    For the Boston Bruins, a lackluster 7-7-0 month of December has taken a toll on their outlook. Sure, winning five out of their last seven games is a good sign and all, but missed opportunities and blown chances regardless of the injury status of many of their players this season has brought them back to Earth this season.

    Regression in hockey, however, is to be expected– even for teams that outperformed expectations. Last season was just that– exceeded expectations in the regular season for Boston.

    How will Bruce Cassidy jumpstart scoring depth throughout his lineup if General Manager Don Sweeney doesn’t do anything to add? Time will tell.

    But they’re running out of time as long as Claude Julien and Phil Housley are in consideration for some Jack Adams Award nominations.

    Though the Buffalo Sabres have slumped a bit in the last month, the Montreal Canadiens have solidified themselves as a potential spoiler in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

    If it’s not them, it’s definitely Buffalo for sure.

    The race for the Eastern Conference wild card spots should come down to three teams– Buffalo, Montreal and the New York Islanders (unless the Islanders snag a divisional spot in the Metropolitan Divsion– more on that later).

    Look, as good as some players on the Florida Panthers are, it’s not happening this year.

    And for all the hype regarding the Detroit Red Wings early in the season? Yeah, it’s the same as last year. They’re not doing so hot either.

    There’s some good news if you’re an Ottawa Senators fan– wait, they traded their 2019 1st round pick in the draft to the Colorado Avalanche as part of the three-team Matt Duchene trade and didn’t protect it (because they chose to protect 2018’s 1st round pick and offer up 2019’s instead)? Oh. Never mind.

    Metropolitan Division

    1. y-Washington Capitals, 109 points (38 GP)
    2. x-Pittsburgh Penguins, 103 points (39 GP)
    3. x-Columbus Blue Jackets, 102 points (39 GP)
    4. wc1-New York Islanders, 98 points (38 GP)
    5. New York Rangers, 90 points (38 GP)
    6. Carolina Hurricanes, 80 points (38 GP)
    7. New Jersey Devils, 80 points (38 GP)
    8. Philadelphia Flyers, 78 points (38 GP)

    As we get closer to “the stretch” things are heating up in the Metropolitan Division, which might not be as full of garbage as once thought earlier in the year.

    For now, the Washington Capitals appear to be in a serious “defend the castle” mood. They’re the defending champions and they’re pretty hard to beat.

    But the Pittsburgh Penguins are surging. The Pens are on a seven-game winning streak and they’re outscoring their opponents, 28-9, during that span.

    What’s necessary to take into account in the divisional spots in the Metropolitan Division is not that the Capitals should lead the way, but rather, that Washington only has a six-point lead in the current forecast over the Penguins– and seven points over the Columbus Blue Jackets (who somehow find themselves in the “top dog” conversation?)– therefore, anything is up for grabs.

    If the Islanders don’t scratch and claw their way into a divisional spot, they’ll be a wild card team.

    It’s not a completely lost season for the New York Rangers, but it’s not one that’ll end with a playoff berth either.

    The same could almost be said for the Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils, except one’s a little more inconsistent (and worse off), while the other’s just worse.

    Sure, the Devils are nowhere to be found this season, but Mackenzie Blackwood could change that outlook next year.

    And if Carter Hart‘s ready to take on the full-time role of starting netminder for the Philadelphia Flyers that probably wouldn’t do much for them this season, but it’s promising moving forward.

    This year’s Flyers team just goes to show that the problem’s beyond a GM and coaching change, so don’t be surprised to see some roster turnover.

    Western Conference

    Central Division

    1. z-Winnipeg Jets, 107 points (39 GP)
    2. x-Nashville Predators, 96 points (40 GP)
    3. x-Colorado Avalanche, 91 points (40 GP)
    4. wc2-Dallas Stars, 89 points (40 GP)
    5. Minnesota Wild, 87 points (38 GP)
    6. St. Louis Blues, 81 points (37 GP)
    7. Chicago Blackhawks, 77 points (41 GP)

    The Winnipeg Jets are one of two teams in serious contention for the Western Conference regular season title– and the Nashville Predators won’t even get to raise a banner next season for it.

    Nashville’s been on shaky ground for the last month and, as a result, it shows in the latest forecast. Inadequacy ruptures standards or expectations.

    Anyway, between Winnipeg and the Calgary Flames one of those teams will be the best in the West at the end of the regular season.

    It says something as a whole about the Central Division when the Colorado Avalanche are currently forecasted to slip into a divisional spot in the postseason with 91 points in the standings.

    Usually about 95 points puts you within the wild card range and anything 98 or above brings you into serious contention for a divisional berth.

    What all of this means is there’s a lot of uncertainty from the Avs, Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild in terms of where they end up, ultimately.

    All three teams have been all over the place– at times– this season.

    Fear not, though, they’re nothing like the St. Louis Blues and Chicago Blackhawks. Nothing makes sense in St. Louis, short of obvious locker room problems and a lack of leadership.

    Whereas, in Chicago, the game plan was already reset to “longterm” last season by default (having finished last in the division). Jeremy Colliton‘s job security is safe for now.

    There weren’t high expectations coming into the season for the Blackhawks and there weren’t immediate expectations for Colliton in their transition from Joel Quenneville to their 33-year-old head coach.

    Essentially, firing Quenneville when they did was an easy way out of having to make things more awkward(?) with a rebuild, but it kind of was anyway given when they did it.

    At least they’re not their rivals in St. Louis– let alone the Los Angeles Kings– where expectations were high after reaping some rewards in the offseason.

    Pacific Division

    1. y-Calgary Flames, 103 points (40 GP)
    2. x-Vegas Golden Knights, 100 points (42 GP)
    3. x-San Jose Sharks, 98 points (41 GP)
    4. wc1-Anaheim Ducks, 92 points (41 GP)
    5. Vancouver Canucks, 83 points (42 GP)
    6. Edmonton Oilers, 82 points (39 GP)
    7. Arizona Coyotes, 76 points (39 GP)
    8. Los Angeles Kings, 75 points (40 GP)

    The Flames are red hot. Can they make 2019 more like 1989 and less like 2004? Does having a goaltender even matter any more?

    Luck’s starting to turn in Vegas as the Golden Knights have come alive and look to make a serious claim at potentially knocking Calgary off from the Pacific Division lead– if they can catch them first.

    Despite their ups and downs, the San Jose Sharks are still a divisional playoff berth kind of team. Expect them to be out of the playoffs before the Western Conference Final though. Surely Martin Jones‘ below average season has to catch up to him at some point, regardless of scoring power.

    With no real competition below them, the Anaheim Ducks are a wild card team that will likely continue to live in the First Round elimination hell until John Gibson single handedly plays every position for the club.

    The Vancouver Canucks have Elias Pettersson and look ready to bring up Thatcher Demko for a full-time role in net, so it’s kind of on, but a little late. Next season!

    Everyone said Ken Hitchcock would turn around the Edmonton Oilers and was dancing in the streets when his first half-dozen games brought the Oilers back into being relevant.

    Well, everyone, except me. Hitchcock’s shtick isn’t fit for the contemporary NHL anymore and his last (and only) Cup win came 20 years ago.

    Sure he might impart some lessons on leadership, but as long as Peter Chiarelli is trading away Drake Caggiula for Brandon Manning and ensuring guys like Milan Lucic are part of the longterm vision…

    The Arizona Coyotes haven’t panned out and it’s not the numbers that have been lying to them. Dylan Strome, their 3rd overall pick in 2015, didn’t develop as planned– whether through the fault of the Coyotes or not– and they traded him.

    That draft was four years ago and Mitch Marner was selected after Strome by the Maple Leafs. Hindsight is 20/20, but still.

    If it’s any consolation, Mikko Rantanen was selected by Colorado, 10th overall, so Carolina, New Jersey, Philly, Columbus and San Jose all missed out on one of the current leaders in scoring.

    Scouting’s not Arizona’s strong-suit from year-to-year, or rather, asset management as a whole it’s just… …not there.

    Finally, Los Angeles, the Grim Reaper’s at the door. Bring out your dead (Cup hopes and dreams for 2019). It’s time to rebuild.

  • DTFR Podcast #138- 2019’s Already Going Down

    DTFR Podcast #138- 2019’s Already Going Down

    Nick and Connor recap and react to the 2019 IIHF World Junior Championship so far, review the latest suspensions and injuries, look to the future of the NHL in 2019 and beyond, discuss 2019 All-Star Game captains, Jake Guentzel’s new extension and Jim Lites’ quotes on Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn.

    Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Stitcher and/or on Spotify. Support the show on Patreon.