Nick and Connor talk Alex Tuch’s extension with the Vegas Golden Knights, superstars Auston Matthews, Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid, as well as Charlie McAvoy extension options, the New York Rangers, Boston’s first line vs. Colorado’s top line and the week’s biggest matchup.
Connor McDavid‘s two assists helped the Edmonton Oilers beat the Boston Bruins, 3-2, in overtime Thursday night in Edmonton’s home opener at Rogers Place since starting 2018-19 regular season over in Sweden against the New Jersey Devils and journeying the long road back.
Leon Draisaitl scored the game-winning goal 37 seconds into overtime to oust the Bruins, while Cam Talbot (3-2-0) made 27 saves on 29 shots faced for a .931 save percentage to go along with the victory.
Boston netminder, Jaroslav Halak (2-0-1), turned aside 19 shots out of 22 shots against for an .864 SV% in the loss (Halak’s first of the season).
The Bruins are now 4-2-1 (9 points) and tied for 2nd place in the Atlantic Division on points, but are technically situated 3rd in the division standings, thanks to the Montreal Canadiens having a game-in-hand on Boston.
The B’s fell to 1-2-1 on the road so far this season, recording a 7-0 loss on Oct. 3rd in Washington, a 4-0 win on Oct. 4th in Buffalo and a 5-2 loss on Oct. 17th in Calgary in addition to Thursday’s overtime loss to the Oilers. Of their four road games thus far, three of them have been the home opener for their opponent.
Edmonton jumped to 5th in the Pacific Division standings with a 3-2-0 (6 points) record in five games played. The Oilers have two games-in-hand over the Vegas Golden Knights (who also have 6 points on the season), therefore maintaining the tiebreaker for now.
In addition to being happy about the win, Edmonton was just as happy to return home after playing a preseason matchup with the German club, Kölner Haie (DEL), then starting the regular season against New Jersey in Sweden and being on the road ever since.
Bruins bench boss, Bruce Cassidy, kept Jake DeBrusk on the second line right wing with David Krejci, but inserted Danton Heinen back into the lineup to the left of the Czech center, demoting Joakim Nordstrom to the fourth line left wing slot.
Boston blue liner, Kevan Miller, left Thursday’s game in the third period with an upper body injury and did not return to action– this, after Matt Benning caught Backes up high with a shoulder to the chin of No. 42 in black-and-gold, causing concerns among the Bruins brass in the first period given Backes’ concussion history.
Backes would return to action, unlike Miller.
Entering the first intermission, the score was tied, 0-0. Shots on goal were 12-5 in favor of the Bruins, while the Oilers led in blocked shots (8-5), giveaways (7-4) and face-off win percentage (63-37). Boston led in hits (12-11) and takeaways were even (3-3). Both teams were 0/1 on the special teams advantage.
Oilers defender, Kris Russell, tripped up Marchand 6:18 into the second period and gave the Bruins their second power play of the night. Boston failed to convert, yet again, on the man advantage and play continued at even strength.
Matt Grzelcyk received the puck from Heinen and sent a pristine cross-ice pass to Krejci (1) for the Bruins second line center’s first goal of the season– and the first goal of the night for either team– to give Boston a 1-0 lead at 11:17.
Grzelcyck (3) and Heinen (1) were tabbed with the assists on Krejci’s goal.
After recording zero points in the first four games and being scratched for the matchup in Calgary, Heinen earned his first point of the season in the form of an assist on Krejci’s tally.
Not to be outdone, Edmonton responded quickly with a first of their own.
Yamamoto (1) led a fast break-in for the Oilers on a long transition pass from Larsson in his own defensive zone to the rookie forward at the blue line and got past Bruins defender, Charlie McAvoy, to go high-glove side past Halak and tie the game, 1-1.
Larsson (1) and Russell (1) had the assists on Yamamoto’s first career NHL goal at 13:24 of the second period.
Shortly thereafter, Edmonton announced Benning would not return to the night’s action with an injury and Marchand even briefly went down the tunnel for Boston in some discomfort before returning to play.
Through 40 minutes of gameplay, the game was tied, 1-1, and the Bruins were leading in shots on goal, 19-15 (despite being outshot, 10-7, in the second period). Boston also held onto the lead in blocked shots (12-11) and takeaways (8-7), while Edmonton had an advantage in giveaways (14-10), hits (21-17) and face-off win% (58-42).
After two periods, the Oilers were 0/1 on the power play and the Bruins were 0/2.
McAvoy was guilty of holding the stick of No. 97 in orange-and-blue and was subsequently dealt a minor penalty at 6:31 of the third period.
McDavid bounced an errant indirect pass off the endboards, giving Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2) a prime carom to pounce on and score the power play goal that gave Edmonton a 2-1 lead at 7:33.
The Oilers captain, McDavid (6), and Oscar Klefbom (2) had the assists on the go-ahead goal, but it wasn’t enough offense to secure the deal just yet.
Pastrnak (8) scored on the short side of Talbot on a one-timer snap shot and tied the game, 2-2, at 11:26 of the third period. Marchand (10) and McAvoy (5) had the assists for Boston.
Just over a minute later, tempers were tested as McDavid failed to convert on a scoring chance and sought to take out a little frustration on Wagner while returning to the bench. Wagner sought retaliation and found Ryan Strome before everyone on the ice was involved in a minor scrum.
Edmonton’s Milan Lucic and Strome received minor penalties for roughing, while Boston forwards Wagner and Nordstrom each earned two minutes for roughing as well. All penalties were matching at 12:31 of the third period so the action remained 5-on-5.
Shortly after the gaggle of players in the penalty box were freed, Tobias Rieder took a trip to the sin bin– coincidentally– for tripping Backes at 14:37.
Boston did not score on the ensuing power play.
After regulation, the game was tied, 2-2, with Boston leading in shots on goal (29-21) and outshooting the Oilers, 10-6, in the third period. Edmonton held onto the advantage in blocked shots (17-14), takeaways (12-9), giveaways (17-14) and hits (34-29). Face-off win% was even (50-50) after 60 minutes and Edmonton was 1/2 on the power play. The Bruins were 0/3 on the skater advantage.
Marchand turned over the puck in the neutral zone to McDavid who found Leon Draisaitl (2) for the prompt conversion on the scoreboard and game-winning goal 37 seconds in to overtime. McDavid (7) recorded his second assist of the night on the goal and Edmonton walked away with the, 3-2, victory in their home opener.
The Bruins accrued one giveaway in overtime– and a costly one at that– while the Oilers notched a shot on goal and one hit to add to their game totals. Edmonton also finished the night with the slight advantage in face-off win% (52-48).
Among other stats…
Boston captain, Zdeno Chara, played in his 900th game for the Bruins Thursday night, becoming just the sixth player in franchise history to do so. Ray Bourque (1,518 games played for Boston), Johnny Bucyk (1,436), current General Manager Don Sweeney (1,052), Wayne Cashman (1,027) and current teammate Patrice Bergeron (970) are the others.
Ryan Donato, David Backes and Chris Wagner finished the night each as minus-one, while Wagner led the Bruins in hits with eight. Noel Acciari, Sean Kuraly and Kevan Miller were the next closest with three hits each.
Miller led in blocked shots with three, while fellow defenders John Moore and Charlie McAvoy, as well as forward, Patrice Bergeron each had two.
Brad Marchand led the way for Boston in shots on goal with four, while his linemates (Bergeron and Pastrnak) were the next closest with three shots on net apiece.
Darnell Nurse and Evan Bouchard were each a minus-two for Edmonton, while Larsson and Lucic each recorded seven hits. Larsson and Russell led the Oilers in blocked shots with four apiece and Nugent-Hopkins led his teammates in shots on goal with four.
Boston and Edmonton split their season series with the Bruins going 1-0-1 in two games against the Oilers. The B’s take on the Vancouver Canucks Saturday night at Rogers Arena before paying a visit to the Ottawa Senators on Oct. 23rd.
Well, technically it’s a forecast.
In the coming days I’ll reveal what teams I’ll be forecasting/tracking all season long, so stay tuned because it’s about to get messier than ever before and I’m up for the challenge.
The 2018-19 regular season gets underway Wednesday night in Washington, D.C. as the Boston Bruins visit the United States capital and defending Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals to kick off their own run to the Cup.*
*Subject to change based on injuries and performance.
As has been tradition for the last– oh I don’t know– several seasons now, here’s a look at some things to expect from each and every member of the Bruins roster that has played in at least one career NHL game. Keep in mind there are many variables that should be taken into account when everyone reads this in April and points and laughs.
For starters, injuries, being a healthy scratch, being sent down or called up, sickness and general superstitions (which may or may not actually exist) disrupt a player’s season pretty well, as well as more things I won’t bother to mention.
You’re either here to hear about how David Pastrnak is going to lead Boston in scoring this season or you’re wondering when the next post will appear and you can keep scrolling on by.
Before we dive in– just for the record– I’d like to remind you all that my degree is in communication– not math– therefore anything that looks “out-of-whack” is Microsoft Excel’s fault. My expertise is in words, which…
These forecasted stats come with an utopian view– as if nothing bad could ever happen and every player actually lived up to their projections– but of course some will pan out, some will exceed expectations and others will miss the mark entirely.
Think of it as a suggested outcome for a sport that is highly unpredictable based on its collective nature and sheer puck luck.
Boston Bruins Forecast Through 0 Games (82 Games Remaining)
The Bruins 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs run came to a disappointing end in quick fashion against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Second Round, but the experience– both tangible and intangible– will be enough to a) leave everyone wanting more and b) leave a lot of players with something to prove.
After entering 2017-18 to the tune of “[they’re] too young– too, too young” (shouts Mike Felger of 98.5 The Sports Hub), Boston turned a lot of eyes with a 50-win season, finishing 2nd in the Atlantic Division with 112 points– one point behind the Lightning. In fact, had Boston won their final game of the regular season against the Florida Panthers, they would’ve clinched the division title.
This, of course, all after a First Round exit to the Ottawa Senators in 2017 following two straight postseason misses in 2015 and 2016.
Now the Bruins enter Phase Three of General Manager Don Sweeney‘s masterplan– win a Cup. Now.
First Sweeney retooled on-the-fly, beginning with the Milan Lucic and Dougie Hamilton trades at the 2015 Draft. Then he worked youth into the lineup of Claude Julien and Bruce Cassidy‘s teams. Finally, here we are, the third year of the secret plan to win a Cup in three years as most Bruins front office members determined they’d be at this point, three years ago.
But enough about that, here’s a look at some of Boston’s expected top performers of 2018-19 before the puck even drops on the regular season.
David Pastrnak leads the way in scoring with 71 points (33 goals, 38 assists) from one of the league’s best first lines, comprised of Pastrnak on the right side, Brad Marchand (32-32–64 expected totals) on the left and Patrice Bergeron (25-38–63 expected totals) down the middle.
After injuries limited Bergeron to 64 games last season, the rejuvenated 33-year-old alternate captain in the Hub finally reaches back-to-back 60-point seasons since his pre-Randy Jones induced concussion days. Bergeron had 73 points in his sophomore NHL season (81 games) in 2005-06 and 70 points (77 games) in 2006-07.
The Bruins expected second line of Jake DeBrusk, David Krejci and Ryan Donato doesn’t show any signs of slowing down as DeBrusk (19-32–51 expected totals) enters his sophomore season and Donato (34-27–61 expected totals) enters his first full season in the NHL.
For the first time since the days of the Lucic-Krejci-Nathan Horton line, it seems the Bruins have finally found the right combination of skill, speed and scoring to compliment Krejci’s tremendous two-way playmaking abilities.
Krejci’s 43 assists are expected to lead his team, provided he can stay healthy as the 32-year-old enters his 13th season with Boston since entering the league in 2006-07 (six games played).
On defense, Charlie McAvoy steps up with 42 points on the season (nine goals, 33 assists) in his sophomore year– uninterrupted by injury or health scares.
Despite missing the start of the regular season Torey Krug still found a way to put up 49 points (11 goals, 38 assists) from the blue line in his fourth consecutive season of 40 or more points. In fact, the only time Krug’s missed the 40-point plateau, he had 39 points in 2014-15 (his 2nd full-season, 78 games played).
Zdeno Chara‘s 12-26–38 expected totals are sensational from a 41-year-old defender entering his 21st professional season in the National Hockey League. Meanwhile, Brandon Carlo‘s going to bounce-back from a sophomore slump to produce three goals and eight assists (11 points) in his junior season as a bottom-three blue liner, sharing duties with Krug, John Moore, Kevan Miller and Matt Grzelcyk on any given night.
In goal, Tuukka Rask remains confident in his defense and in the scoring power of the forwards in front of him, as he cruises along with a 2.28 goals against average and .921 save percentage at (regular) season’s end in April.
Jaroslav Halak stabilizes as a backup goaltender in a system that actually works with good, talented, young defenders that help limit his workload, Halak amasses a 2.49 GAA and .916 SV% in his appearances. His play provides Boston with a nearly 1A/1B option, but ultimately gives way to Rask down the stretch and into the playoffs.
We’ll get into exactly how many games each goalie should realistically see playing time in the next forecast.
50-20-12, 112 points, 2nd in the Atlantic Division
Lost in the Second Round to TB, 4-1
Subtractions: F Kenny Agostino (signed with MTL), D Chris Breen (signed with Providence Bruins, AHL), D Tommy Cross (signed with CBJ), F Austin Czarnik (signed with CGY), F Brian Gionta (retired), F Justin Hickman (signed, Norway), D Nick Holden (signed with VGK), G Anton Khudobin (signed with DAL), D Adam McQuaid (traded to NYR), F Riley Nash (signed with CBJ), D Paul Postma (signed, KHL), F Tim Schaller (signed with VAN), F Tommy Wingels (signed, Switzerland)
Still Unsigned: F Rick Nash
Offseason Analysis: My fellow hearty New Englanders, we’ve reached the third year of Boston Bruins General Manager Don Sweeney‘s secret three-year Cup masterplan. This is the year– it’s make or break.
Live free or die Do or die.
Why? Because Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo, Danton Heinen and Ryan Donato are all pending-RFAs at season’s end with about $16.500 million to spend next offseason– wait, actually, that’s not that bad. It’s tricky, tedious stuff, but manageable if they do it right (Sweeney’s not the last guy, so…?).
Considering David Krejci ($7.250 million cap hit through the 2020-21 season), David Backes ($6.000 million cap hit through 2020-21) and for some reason Torey Krug ($5.250 million cap hit through 2019-20) have all been the topic of trade rumors this offseason, Sweeney will likely end up with well over $20.000 million to work with for the 2019-20 roster.
Oh and 41-year-old ageless wonder and captain, Zdeno Chara‘s $5.000 million cap hit comes off the books after this season, but as long as he’s still trucking, he’ll be in a spoked-B sweater until he retires. (P.S. That’s right, Jaromir Jagr, I’m going with Chara as the new ageless wonder, at least in the National Hockey League.)
But this? This is 2018-19.
Gone are Tim Schaller and Riley Nash, two bottom-six forwards who– let’s be honest– you didn’t think would have the kinds of seasons they had in 2017-18.
I’ve already gone over this plenty of times this offseason on the podcast and in writing, but Schaller legitimized himself as a third liner at best (and rightfully earned his new contract with the Vancouver Canucks), while Nash had a career-high 41-point season at 29-years-old– can that ever be repeated on his three-year deal with the Columbus Blue Jackets?
Maybe at least once, but not at the price the Bruins could afford with a plethora of youth needing renewals in the next couple of offseasons (oh and coming for roster spots too).
Gone as well are Anton Khudobin and Nick Holden– last season’s backup goaltender and depth piece acquisition on the blue line in February.
In are Chris Wagner, Joakim Nordstrom and whoever makes the roster from Providence this season. John Moore’s new on defense too– he signed a 5-year, $2.750 million per season, contract on July 1st and as a result, became Adam McQuaid’s de facto replacement turned actual-facto (I’m making that a thing) replacement after McQuaid was shipped off to the New York Rangers on September 11th.
The thought process is simple with Wagner and Nordstrom.
Wagner likes to hit and Nordstrom’s coming in exactly like Riley Nash did two years ago. He’s a durable penalty-killer signed at $1.000 million AAV for the next two seasons. Low risk, high reward (as long as he reaches his goals).
Jarolsav Halak’s in town as the backup goaltender for the next two seasons with a cap hit of $2.750 million. Head coach Bruce Cassidy almost has a 1A, 1B option in goal with Halak’s previous starting goaltender experience, though he’ll likely see about 30 games this season to Tuukka Rask‘s 50-plus starts. Both goaltenders will be right in their sweet-spot.
Remember Steven Kampfer? The 2011 Stanley Cup champion doesn’t have his name on the Cup (he only played 38 games in 2010-11), but he’s back in black-and-gold as part of the return in the McQuaid transaction with New York.
Kampfer’s signed through this season at $650,000 and will likely be utilized as an emergency recall from the Providence Bruins, unless Cassidy doesn’t mind carrying eight defenders (with Matt Grzelcyk already as the seventh defenseman). He’ll wear No. 44 this time around with Boston, as Krug is wearing his old No. 47.
Fun fact, Krug wore No. 44 at Michigan State, but Dennis Seidenberg was already wearing that number when Krug signed as an undrafted free agent with the Bruins in March 2012.
The Rangers also gave up a 4th round pick and a conditional 7th round pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, which could come in handy at the trade deadline as extra pieces in any Cup or bust making moves Sweeney might have up his sleeve.
Also departed this offseason are Paul Postma (remember him?), Tommy Wingels (off to go explore the Swiss Alps), Brian Gionta (retired as a Sabre, technically) and Austin Czarnik (actually living up in Calgary with the Flames after the Bruins
ran out of space didn’t tender a qualifying offer to at least feign interest in prolonging their relationship).
Plus, Rick Nash is still undecided about coming back to play. Should he do so, Boston has about $5.060 million in cap space to spend on what would undoubtedly be his last chance at a Cup– if last season’s disappointing, concussion-filled, end to a season wasn’t already his last.
Good on Rick Nash either way– if he decides to hang up the skates, nobody can blame him for taking his health seriously. If he waits it out until February or so and is 100% ready-to-go, then let him have a shot at going out the way he wants to– on his own terms.
The 50-20-12, 112-point season Bruins we saw last year in Boston have a lot of pressure this season. A lot more is expected heading into 2018-19 than was expected heading into 2017-18, but it’s a good place to be in. Not to mention Cassidy is the right man behind the bench to get the job done.
The time is now.
Offseason Grade: C+
Despite groans from the fanbase, right or wrong, the Bruins had a slightly above average offseason. Boston placed an emphasis on their youth when Sweeney came in and retooled the prospect pool, so they’ve stuck with the plan.
They didn’t overspend, given John Moore’s potential as a quality top-four defender at precisely what Adam McQuaid (a bottom-pair blue liner) was making. They didn’t land John Tavares or Ilya Kovalchuk this offseason, but the fact they were even in the conversation lends them some serious credibility as a contender.
In order to be enlightened and crowned champion, first you must climb a seemingly impossible mountain. This team has those expectations and it all starts from within.
Nick, Colby and Connor talk the Max Pacioretty trade, Eugene Melnyk’s latest antics, John Tortorella’s extension, Adam McQuaid and Steve Yzerman stepping down in Tampa. Also in this episode– DTFR’s official 2018-19 Atlantic Division preview.
It came with little surprise.
Bruins General Manager Don Sweeney had recently remarked that he was comfortable with having eight defenders and looking forward to the new season, but with McQuaid sitting on the books at $2.750 million for the remainder of his contract– more than likely up on the 9th floor of TD Garden as a healthy scratch from night-to-night– a move was coming.
Kampfer has one-year remaining on his contract at $650,000, leaving Boston with about $5.000 million in cap space for the 2018-19 season. That’s certainly plenty of room to make more moves as the trade deadline approaches in the new year and plenty of room to make a serious run at a top pending-UFA in July 2019– let alone cap room to re-sign Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo, Danton Heinen and more.
So basically, that was the whole point of a McQuaid trade. Be kind to an NHLer who will log minutes on the ice with a different team instead of the 9th floor, clear some cap room in the process, bump some younger guys up on the depth chart and get something in return (rather than let McQuaid go for nothing next July). Kampfer, in the meantime, will likely be sent to Boston’s AHL affiliate in Providence– only to be called up in the event of injuries or in case of emergency.
Meanwhile, New York GM Jeff Gorton was able to shore up some veteran presence and valuable locker room intangibles with the addition of McQuaid.
McQuaid, 31, until now, spent his entire nine-year NHL career with Boston since being traded by the Columbus Blue Jackets on May 17, 2007 in exchange for a fifth round pick. That 5th round pick was subsequently traded to the Dallas Stars by the time draft day came around and was used to select Jamie Benn 129th overall.
Originally drafted by Columbus in the second round (55th overall) of the 2005 NHL Entry Draft, McQuaid has 13-53–66 totals in 462 career NHL games. He broke into the NHL in the 2009-10 season with the Bruins after spending parts of three seasons with the Providence Bruins from 2007-10, appearing in 178 AHL games and amassing eight goals and 26 assists (34 points).
The 6-foot-4, 212-pound defender has appeared in 68 postseason games with three goals and eight assists (11 points) in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. A 2011 Stanley Cup champion, McQuaid has had at least 100 hits in five of his nine NHL seasons and at least 100 blocked shots in four of his nine seasons.
In 2017-18, he had one goal and three assists (four points) in 38 games for Boston. McQuaid was teammates with current Rangers blueliner, Marc Staal, for all four seasons of his Junior hockey career (2003-07) with the Sudbury Wolves in the Ontario Hockey League (OHL).
Kampfer, 29, has appeared in 166 career NHL games for the Bruins, Minnesota Wild, Florida Panthers and New York Rangers. He has 10-16–26 totals and 82 penalty minutes in his career (2010-present).
An Anaheim Ducks fourth round pick (93rd overall) in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft, Kampfer was traded to Boston on March 2, 2010 in exchange for a conditional fourth round pick (which was flipped to the Carolina Hurricanes and used to select Justin Shugg).
The 5-foot-11, 195-pound defenseman made his NHL debut with the Bruins on December 9, 2010 against the New York Islanders and appeared in 38 games with Boston in 2010-11 en route to their 2011 Stanley Cup victory. Kampfer had a career-high five goals and five assists (10 points) that season and had two assists in 10 games in 2011-12 before being traded to the Wild at the trade deadline in exchange for Greg Zanon.
He went on to spend two seasons in the American Hockey League (AHL) before playing in 73 games with the Florida Panthers from 2014-16, then was traded (along with a conditional pick) to the Rangers on November 8, 2016 for Dylan McIlrath.
In two seasons with New York (2016-18), Kampfer had one goal and two assists in 32 games. He has skated in 249 career AHL games with 27-81–108 totals and played four seasons of college hockey at the University of Michigan from 2006-10.
It’s only taken me all offseason, but don’t trade Torey Krug.*
*At least in a one-for-one with the Edmonton Oilers, anyway.
There’s been plenty of talk on hockey Twitter among experts, recreational bloggers and fans alike surrounding Boston Bruins top-four defender, Torey Krug, and whether or not the 27-year-old blueliner should be considered an expendable asset for the right return.
At some point this offseason, rumors swirled that Bruins General Manager Don Sweeney had been in contact with Oilers General Manager Peter Chiarelli with both GMs expressing desire for a defender.
For starters, Sweeney and Chiarelli are friends.
Sweeney worked under Chiarelli during Chiarelli’s tenure with Boston and, while it’s likely they talked at some point this offseason– as all friends do– to what extent they delved into their roster concerns, well, that’s not for me to say.
But with rumors comes speculation on Twitter.
Polls were created, people became enraged because people tweeted their two cents and… people tweeted. Never tweet.
In the aftermath of the Krug Twitter War, let’s take one more sensible look at if Boston and Edmonton had worked out a deal this offseason– salary cap be damned.
Krug notched a career-high 59 points in 76 games for the Bruins in 2017-18. He had eight more points last season than he did in 2016-17 (51 points in 81 games played) and improved his plus/minus from a minus-10 in 2016-17 to an even rating last season.
There’s a couple of things to takeaway from that.
First, Krug had 59 points (a career high) last season, which was only three fewer points in five more games played than one of the league’s best blueliners– Erik Karlsson— had in a down season.
Yes, you read that right, Karlsson had 9-53–62 totals in 71 games for the Ottawa Senators in 2017-18, while Krug had 14-45–59 totals (76 GP) for Boston. Anytime a defender scores more than 10 goals, that’s something to celebrate– let alone when that player reaches a new career-high in scoring.
And second, Krug’s mistakes are still noticeable.
When a defenseman makes a mistake it’s usually easier to spot, because it leads directly to a goal against. Krug’s positioning hasn’t always been spot on, but he spent all of last season working with Brandon Carlo on Boston’s second defensive pairing– a season that Carlo is looking to learn from and move on from after failing to score a goal in his sophomore slump.
Krug’s best career plus/minus (plus-18) came in 79 GP in the President’s Trophy winning 2013-14 season for the Bruins. Since then he’s slipped to plus-13 in 2014-15, plus-9 in 2015-16 and a minus-10 in 2016-17, before rebounding to breaking even in 2017-18.
Now, I’ll fully acknowledge plus/minus does not tell the full story. Plus/minus alone does not take into account situations like being on the power play, penalty kill or even strength (Krug had 24 power play points last season– only one shy of his career-high 25 points on the power play in 2016-17). That’s where the argument for Corsi Relative, Corsi Close, Corsi Even and all that jazz comes in as another way to measure situational play, but I digress.
Back to the Oilers for a moment.
If Krug were to have been swapped in a one-for-one with an Edmonton defender, the Bruins would’ve taken a major step back.
Boston doesn’t need a young defenseman approaching his prime– they’ve got Charlie McAvoy, Carlo, and Matt Grzelcyk already in those roles with Urho Vaakanainen, Jakub Zboril and Jeremy Lauzon (just to name a few) coming down the pipeline in the system.
In other words, a hypothetical Krug for current-RFA, Darnell Nurse, deal wouldn’t look good. Especially when you look at the stats.
In just 2017-18 alone, Krug’s 14-45–59 totals in 76 games decimate Nurse’s 6-20–26 totals in 82 games with the Oilers. While shutdown defenders are favorable for their defensive purposes, giving up 33 points from the backend for one player alone isn’t sound. Especially with Krug as Boston’s offensive defenseman centerpiece over the two-way skills of McAvoy.
Sure, Nurse is only 23, but he needs a new contract as things stand right now with Boston looking at pay raises for both McAvoy (likely a hefty one) and Carlo in the summer of 2019. Then there’s that whole “already in his prime” thing going on with Krug. It’s perfectly fine to hold onto a defender in their prime into their early/mid-30s.
What about Oscar Klefbom? Could the Bruins improve in a one-for-one involving Krug for him?
Again, the answer is no.
Klefbom, 25, is two-years younger than Krug (so that whole “already in his prime thing”, yeah, that’s not favoring Klefbom in this hypothetical) and had 5-16–21 totals in 66 games for the Oilers last season. He was also a minus-12, which was surprisingly worse than everyone’s favorite Chiarelli overvalued blueliner in Edmonton– Kris Russell.
Russell was a minus-seven in 78 games and had, yep, 4-17–21 totals at 31-years-old.
Sure, adding Klefbom (6’3″) in place of Krug (5’9″) adds height, but it hinders skill.
There’s always that change of scenery argument, but there shouldn’t be anything attractive in Edmonton. Hard pass on any and all one-for-ones unless Connor McDavid is involved for some insane reason.
And for the record, Chiarelli’s prized possession in his biggest one-for-one trade in Edmonton (Taylor Hall to the New Jersey Devils for Adam Larsson) had 4-9–13 totals in 63 games last season. Larsson’s only reached the 20-point plateau once in his career (24 points in 64 games for New Jersey in 2014-15). Ouch.
If you’re thinking of trading Krug for any reason, don’t let it be in a one-for-one with the Oilers.
If you wait long enough into the summer things start to look more concrete– until you really look at the nitty gritty.
The 2017-18 Boston Bruins were ahead of schedule. They exceeded expectations. They weren’t even supposed to have the kind of season they had until at least this season or next season (if that makes sense), depending on how you broke down General Manager Don Sweeney‘s master three-year plan.
Like everything, however, this offseason has had some ups and downs.
Without getting too much into the nonsensically named (okay, it was named after some videogame, read Bob McKenzie’s book Hockey Confidential— shameless plug) advanced stat “PDO”, let’s just say that whenever a team does really well for a season, they usually come back to reality the following season.
Hockey logic has indicated this in the past, what with the Chicago Blackhawks almost evenly spaced out Stanley Cup championships in 2010, 2013 and 2015 (notice, 2011, 2012 and 2014 did not result in Cups– kind of makes you think)– let alone all of hockey history.
A long season, while rewarding with a championship run (sometimes), is a grind.
Not trying to be Debbie Downer here, but let’s just try to look at things with a slice of realism for this season especially.
Last season they were “too young, too, too young”, but they amassed 50 wins and made it to the Second Round of the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs. This season they’re more experienced, but with an unknown and untapped source of depth in both their free agent signings and expected rookie debuts and sophomores.
Gone are Tim Schaller and Riley Nash— two quality bottom-six forwards who left for Vancouver and Columbus respectively in July. In their place we find Chris Wagner and Joakim Nordstrom. Lateral– but necessary– moves.
The expectations coming into Schaller and Nash’s two-year deals in the 2016 offseason were that they’d contribute in some way, but nobody could predict Schaller becoming a legitimate fourth liner and Nash amassing 41 points (a career best) in a contract year.
While Wagner and Nordstrom aren’t your bottom-six fan favorites yet, they share similar parallels of the unknown and are expected to rise to the occasion– whatever that may be as Head Coach Bruce Cassidy will see fit.
Wagner’s your tough guy and Nordstrom’s a solid penalty killer. The latter will likely see some time with Sean Kuraly on a PK-unit a la Nash and Kuraly from this past season.
Moore’s five-year deal may seem like a bit much, but at $2.750 million per season, he’s making as much as Adam McQuaid for likely a bottom-pair role that’ll transform into McQuaid’s replacement, should Sweeney look to move the career-long Boston defender or not re-sign him in July 2019.
Despite being one-year older than Khudobin, Halak is an upgrade as a stable backup goaltender who’s numbers should improve in a more limited role with a better group of skaters in front of him than his now former New York Islanders teammates were the last few seasons.
Pointless arguments can be made all day (Halak is better than Khudobin), but let’s move on with the actual lineup projection, shall we?
Actually, let’s digress for another moment. Rick Nash remains undecided about whether or not he’d like to return to the game, so that could always mess everything up.
Anyway, here’s a look at how the Boston Bruins 2018-19 lineup should shape up:
Forward Line 1
Isn’t it obvious? The best line in the NHL from 2017-18 rolls right into 2018-19 intact with the same level of chemistry as before. Sure, you could spread out the points a bit by putting Pastrnak on the second line with David Krejci, but you really don’t have to unless you’re looking to shake things up a bit from time to time.
Boston’s first line is set for at least the remainder of Patrice Bergeron’s existence– ignoring contracts altogether. Brad Marchand is inseparable from Bergeron and Pastrnak has joined that royalty in his own right, as he continues to emerge as a star.
Forward Line 2
Jake DeBrusk and Krejci go together like Milan Lucic once did on the Czech center’s left side. Except there’s a bit of a difference in DeBrusk’s game– it’s more offensive. The bigger question on Boston’s second line shouldn’t be “what top-six forward will they try to acquire to fill a ‘hole'”, but rather “who will win the job between Anders Bjork and Ryan Donato?”
For the sake of testing things out in the wake of Bjork’s return from a season-ending injury in 2017-18, Cassidy could insert No. 10 on the second line. Then again, if the Bruins are set on giving Donato a big-time role for a full season, well, then it’ll be Bjork sliding down to line three or line four.
Donato could be like Pastrnak once was early in his development and be sent to Providence for some seasoning in his game and offensive capabilities at the professional level. However, one difference between Donato’s development and Pastrnak’s development is that Donato stood out on an Olympic level, not just in an international World Junior Championship competition.
But if you’re looking to give props to Pastrnak, it’s worth mentioning (albeit due to international/minor league transfer rules) that No. 88 in black and gold went pro before Donato while No. 17 in the spoked-B finished his bona fide duties at Harvard University.
Or just to mess everything else up, perhaps Bjork starts 2018-19 with a stint in Providence.
Forward Line 3
Whoever doesn’t win the second line right wing job (Bjork or Donato) should likely end up on the third line in Boston alongside Danton Heinen and Sean Kuraly. Kuraly, you say?
Yes, Kuraly will be tested out as a third line center as had been planned since he was part of the Martin Jones trade with the San Jose Sharks. Just how far will his bottom-six forward potential go? Time well tell and the time is now.
Otherwise Joakim Nordstrom slides right into Riley Nash’s old job much like how he’s already slid into the No. 20 sweater in the Hub.
Forward Line 4
14 Chris Wagner — 20 Joakim Nordstrom — 55 Noel Acciari
Then again, if Bjork or Donato slide just enough, they might end up taking a job from Noel Acciari on the fourth line. Or just maybe Sweeney can console armchair GMs enough with some level justification for having Backes on the fourth line at $6.000 million per season through the 2020-21 season.
For fans and armchair GMs alike that like a lot of hitting, Chris Wagner is your man. He’s basically the new Matt Beleskey, but without the expectations that ran rampant after Beleskey’s incredible 2015 Stanley Cup Playoff run with the Anaheim Ducks.
Otherwise, it’s pretty much status quo on the fourth line, despite some new faces in Wagner and Nordstrom– provide a spark. Whatever that is.
Defensive Pair 1
Zdeno Chara wants to play forever (basically) and Charlie McAvoy is the closest thing Bruins fans have seen to a modern-day Ray Bourque in his development and potential.
On a serious note, Chara intends to play for at least another four years (by then he’ll be 45) and signed a one-year extension (at a $5.000 million cap hit) this spring for the 2018-19 season. McAvoy, on the other hand, seeks to continue his rise to stardom on the blue line moving on to his sophomore season.
Defensive Pair 2
There’s an impetus among armchair GMs to trade Torey Krug for a second line wing and/or other assets, but the fact of the matter is Sweeney and Co. have no legitimate rush to move on from Krug. He might be their biggest piece of trade bait for speculative purposes this season, yet he’s also still part of the top-four defensive core in Boston.
Meanwhile, Brandon Carlo looks to rebound from a bit of a sophomore slump in which he failed to score a goal. Carlo and Krug had a chemistry that– at best of times– worked well in 2017-18. Like any defender, though, mistakes are usually noticeable, because there’s a puck in the net behind them.
Defensive Pair 3
27 John Moore — 86 Kevan Miller
You’re not going to pay John Moore $2.750 million for the next five seasons to not play him, whereas a guy like Matt Grzelcyk or Brandon Carlo could be at risk of becoming a healthy scratch– and that’s assuming Adam McQuaid who also has a $2.750 million cap hit this season already will be a healthy scratch most nights.
In the meantime, Kevan Miller has solidified himself as the 5th or 6th defenseman in Boston– for his physicality and impressive play alone– and could further take on McQuaid’s fighter role this season as a deterrence from the waning role of the enforcer around the rest of the league.
48 Matt Grzelcyk, 54 Adam McQuaid
Following suit with last season, Grzelcyk will have to win his full-time role out of the gate once again, while McQuaid’s future status with the organization remains cloudy past 2019. So cloudy, in fact, that he’ll be a pending-UFA as of July 2019.
In the system
Zach Senyshyn (potential second line RW/bottom six contender), Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson (bottom six contender), Jesse Gabrielle (fourth line option at camp), Trent Frederic (bottom six contender), Jack Studnicka (bottom six contender at camp), Jakub Zboril (bottom pair defensive contender), Jeremy Lauzon (bottom pair defensive contender), Zane McIntyre (backup goalie contender at camp), Dan Vladar (backup goalie contender at camp)
40 Tuukka Rask
Tuukka Rask is your starting goaltender as he has been since Tim Thomas decided to take a gap year (and was subsequently traded to the Islanders). There is no goaltending controversy, though Jaroslav Halak should provide more consistency in net on the night’s Rask gets to rest.
In addition to finding the right mix of rest and play, fewer shots against for the third consecutive year since facing a career high 2,011 shots in 70 games in 2014-15 has helped Rask’s focus throughout the season as the Bruins look to go further as a team.
You win and lose as a team– not solely as a goaltender.
41 Jaroslav Halak
Yes, Anton Khudobin bounced back from a disappointing 2016-17 season to an exuberant 2017-18 season, but let’s get this clear– he’s a backup. Khudobin bounced around a bit from the NHL to the AHL and back again in 2016-17, posting a 2.64 goals against average and .904 save percentage in 16 games played.
He then had a 2.56 GAA and .913 SV% in 31 games as Boston’s backup in 2017-18, which was good enough for his third best season in GAA and SV%, dating back to his first real taste of being a backup NHL goaltender in 2012-13 with Boston (Khudobin appeared in seven NHL games from 2009-12 with Minnesota and the Bruins in dire situations).
The thing here is a 2.56 GAA is not starting netminder material, no matter how you break down Khudobin’s overall improvement from 2016-17 to 2017-18.
In the meantime, Jaroslav Halak is poised for career-reset. He’s got a change of scenery from Brooklyn to Boston and with that he won’t be playing in nearly as many games.
Halak had a 3.19 GAA and .908 SV% in 54 games as New York’s starting goalie, keeping in mind the Islanders suffered a lot of injuries on the blue line last season. He also nearly doubled his workload from a dismal 2016-17 (28 games played) to 2017-18 (54 GP).
In 2015-16, Halak had a 2.30 GAA and .919 SV% as the Islanders backup netminder in 36 games played. Khudobin, on the other hand, appeared in nine games for the Anaheim Ducks that season, amassing a 2.69 GAA and .909 SV% before being sent down to San Diego (AHL).
The moral of the story here is that the Bruins have been about giving backups second chances in recent history, whether that’s Chad Johnson, Jonas Gustavsson, Khudobin and now Halak– they’re willing to take that gamble.
Okay, end Halak vs. Khudobin rant.
Nick and Connor discuss John Tavares signing with the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Crosby/Malkin vs. Tavares/Matthews argument, best and worst free agency signings and more. At this point, we’re also strangely optimistic about the St. Louis Blues.
The 2018 offseason is sure to bring lots of spending with several high-caliber talents testing the waters of unrestricted free agency. Here’s a look at the top-10 available players with the highest cap hits from 2017-18 courtesy of CapFriendly.com.
The free agent market opens Sunday at noon ET.
1) C Joe Thornton (San Jose Sharks), $8.000 million
Thornton has yet to win a Cup and re-signed with the Sharks last July for a little more than what Patrick Marleau got in his average annual value on his way out of San Jose with his three-year deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs. At 38-years-old, Thornton’s entering– if not well beyond– the twilight of his career and may retire.
Or he’ll come back for one last ride with San Jose as General Manager Doug Wilson looks to stockpile another Cup-or-bust roster with Evander Kane having re-signed for another seven years and the Sharks as a legitimate contender for John Tavares and others. Much like last season, Thornton could be playing the waiting game to a) not tie up any spending money San Jose has yet and b) to see what Wilson brings in.
He had 13-23–36 totals in 47 games played with the Sharks last season and battled injuries that kept him out of postseason action.
2) LW/RW Rick Nash (New York Rangers –> Boston Bruins), $7.800 million
Nash will gauge the open market and wait to sign a deal after July 1st as he is contemplating retirement altogether.
Bruins General Manager Don Sweeney has indicated he’s open to bringing the 34-year-old winger back for another season in black-and-gold after Boston failed to snag 35-year-old KHLer returning to the NHL, Ilya Kovalchuk, last week.
In 71 games with the Bruins and Rangers, Nash had 21-13–34 totals. He also scored three goals and had two assists (five points) in 12 postseason games with Boston after suffering a concussion in March.
3) C Paul Stastny (St. Louis Blues –> Winnipeg Jets), $7.000 million
Winnipeg and Stastny, 32, have had a mutual interest in each other since the Jets acquired the veteran center at the trade deadline, however, Stastny could cash in as one of the better centers left in the market. The Montreal Canadiens have been rumored to be in touch with Stastny’s camp and may take a stab at the son of former intra-province rival Québec Nordiques legend, Peter Stastny.
Paul Stastny had 16-37–53 totals in 81 games with the Jets and Blues this season.
4) D Mike Green (Detroit Red Wings), $6.000 million
After spending his first 10 NHL seasons with the Washington Capitals, Green spent the last three seasons with the Red Wings. The 32-year-old blueliner cashed in on a three-year, $6.000 million AAV deal in the midst of his prime and is beginning to reach the tail-end of optimal athletic ability in the modern game.
Despite having a no-movement clause, Green was open to whatever Detroit General Manager Ken Holland had in mind around the deadline as the defender is still in search of his first Cup. Green was not traded and had 8-25–33 totals in 66 games this season with the Red Wings as a top-6 defender.
5) C Tomas Plekanec (Montreal Canadiens –> Toronto Maple Leafs), $6.000 million
Plekanec broke into the NHL as a member of the Canadiens in 2003-04 and spent his entire career in Montreal before being traded to Toronto around the deadline this season in search of a Cup.
The 35-year-old shaved his trademark goatee at Lou Lamoriello’s discretion and even bought a new turtleneck, but amassed two assists in 17 games for the Maple Leafs down the stretch. Plekanec did, however, yield 6-20–26 totals in 77 games for Toronto and Montreal this season and added four points (two goals, two assists) in the Leafs seven-game series loss to the Boston Bruins in the First Round this postseason.
All signs point point Plekanec rejoining the Habs this summer.
6) G Kari Lehtonen (Dallas Stars), $5.900 million
Lehtonen, 34, shifted to a full-time backup role in Dallas this season as a result of Ben Bishop joining the Stars last summer and– despite a 14-14-1 record in 36 games (slightly below .500)– it paid off. His 2.58 goals against average and .911 save percentage is exactly what you ask from an average-to-slightly-above-average backup goaltender.
Stars General Manager Jim Nill doesn’t have a plan laid out for the eventual backup behind Bishop for the remainder of Bishop’s contract, but Nill’s in luck as this year’s backup goalie market is full of quality candidates for at least a year or two.
7) D Toby Enstrom (Winnipeg Jets), $5.750 million
The Winnipeg Jets youth movement ultimately forced 33-year-old Toby Enstrom into the land of the obsolete. He had one goal and five assists (six points) in 43 games played.
He won’t be making anywhere near his $5.750 million cap hit from this season, but he still can provide an organization with some much needed defensive depth as a bottom-pair blueliner or seventh defender.
Meanwhile, Jets General Manager Kevin Cheveldayoff can utilize the newfound salary on other important pieces, like Patrik Laine‘s next contract after the 2018-19 season, for example.
T-8) D Brooks Orpik (Washington Capitals/Colorado Avalanche/UFA), $5.500 million
Orpik won his second Cup this season (first with the Capitals) and was subsequently traded with Philipp Grubauer to the Colorado Avalanche as part of Washington’s salary dump venture to re-sign John Carlson (spoiler alert: it worked) at the 2018 NHL Entry Draft.
Avalanche General Manager Joe Sakic bought-out the remaining year on Orpik’s contract, making the 37-year-old defender a free agent a year ahead of schedule. Before he makes a comeback, he’ll have to sign elsewhere for much less than his $5.500 million cap hit.
T-8) C John Tavares (New York Islanders), $5.500 million
If Tavares doesn’t re-sign with the Islanders this offseason, he’ll become the biggest prize on the free agent market. Thanks to the interview period, we already know he’s met with representatives from six organizations (in no particular order)– the New York Islanders, Toronto Maple Leafs, Boston Bruins, Dallas Stars, San Jose Sharks and Tampa Bay Lightning.
The Islanders have a new General Manager (Lou Lamoriello) and new head coach (Barry Trotz), but will front office moves that are sure to shake up components of the roster ultimately sway Tavares to stay or is the 27-year-old star-center going to pursue a chance to win the Cup elsewhere a lot sooner rather than later? We’ll know as soon as Tavares’s agent or a team announces a deal.
T-10) C/LW Valtteri Filppula (Philadelphia Flyers), $5.000 million
At 34-years-old, 11-22–33 totals in 80 games played isn’t terrible for someone that’d make a great third liner on any organization. Unfortunately for Filppula, a $5.000 million cap hit will.
The Flyers will undoubtedly move on and replace the veteran forward with someone younger from Lehigh Valley or elsewhere in the system, while Filppula should be able to secure a two or three year deal elsewhere at less value as a key “glue guy”.
T-10) LW/RW James Neal (Vegas Golden Knights), $5.000 million
Instead of trading Neal by the trade deadline, Vegas General Manager George McPhee held onto the veteran winger for the ride and the Golden Knights came three wins away from winning the Stanley Cup in their inaugural season.
All season long, the 30-year-old NHL veteran came in clutch with dazzling highlight reel goals and 44 points (25 goals, 19 assists) on the season in 71 games for the Knights. With a $5.000 million cap hit, Neal’s value could skyrocket– thanks to supply and demand– or stay around the same and provide a Cup contending team with the necessary offense and depth to get them over the hump.
T-10) C/RW Mikhail Grabovski (Vegas Golden Knights), $5.000 million
Career-ending concussion related issues prevented Grabovski, 34, from suiting up with the Golden Knights in their inaugural season as Vegas utilized his $5.000 million cap hit to surpass the salary cap floor.